PLAYOFF UPDATE

LAKERS-NUGGETS

The Lakers finished up a sweep of the uninspired Nuggets, Kobe ending up averaging 34-5-6, Gasol 22-9-5, and Carmelo shooting .364 in a beyond horrible series. At least the Nuggets got a glimpse of what Linas Kleiza and JR Smith (23 & 22, respectively) might be in the future, and even got a few minutes of PT from the ever-promising and ever-elusive Nene. This team has some pieces and potential, but I think we can call the Carmelo-Iverson experiment a raging failure. Unfortunately for them, I don't think there's a chance in hell Iverson outs out of his contract this year when he sees what options are out there and who (nobody) wants to pay him $20M/year.

CELTICS-HAWKS

How about those Hawks?! They held court at home to force a 2-2 tie with Boston, which seemed almost impossible after the first two blowouts. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves on a player who struggles with consistency, but Josh Smith was absolutely phenomenal in the two games, going for 27-9-6 in game three and 28-6-2 with 7 blocks in game four. He really bothered Garnett on the defensive end, Garnett had a hard time dealing with Smith's incredible athleticism. Smith is only 22 and the sky's the limit, but this is also a guy who scored 19 total over the first two games on 6-23 shooting; in other words, he's just not at the stage where he can bring it every night, and that's what separates the true superstars from the other good players. But again, he's 22--Smith has a chance to be something special. I'll be really curious to see what he and the rest of the young Hawks do in games 5-6-7. I still don't think they'll win it, but it would be great if they could keep the Celts working til the end. And, hey, there's always the 2007 Warriors, I guarantee that series is in the dark recesses of the minds of the Celtic players.

PISTONS-SIXERS

Detroit is still the better team, I'm absolutely convinced of that, but they're having a hard time matching Philly's athleticism and energy level. I often think that when people believe they see a disparity in effort level, it's more about a disparity in talent, but not here--the Pistons need to play harder, plain and simple. Philadelphia is young and unseasoned, and they've already shown in this series that they can't handle ugly, physical NBA playoff basketball--when the Pistons make the game tough and physical, they win. When they don't, Philly wins. The Pistons know what they have to do, and I expect a comfortable win tonight (as does Vegas, the line is 9). If not, and if it's because their energy and toughness level isn't there again, I'm officially removing the Pistons from my list of potential NBA champions.

SPURS-SUNS

We can add Tony Parker's 41 & 12 in game three to the list of incredible playoff performances this year, he dominated that game as much as any six footer has ever dominated a crucial playoff game. He was unbelievable, flawless, he did whatever he wanted against any individual defender and against any team defense alignment. The Suns bounced back in game 4 to open the door ever so slightly, but as you surely have heard 47 times, NO NBA TEAM HAS EVER COME BACK FROM 3-0. Game 5 tonight is big, if the Suns steal it on the road they have a game at home to force a superhuge game 7 with all the momentum and all the sports world focusing on San Antonio to see if they pull the historic choke job. But I don't see it happening; I just think the Spurs are better and tougher, and that they'll end this thing tonight, leaving a potentially epic series with the unproven-but-extremely-talented Hornets in the conference semis.
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ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

1 Kevin Durant
2. Al Horton
3. Who cares?

It was kind of a sucky year for rookies, but I still don't think this class was a disappointment--far from it, in fact, I think this is potentially a monster class. I see a lot of talent out there, and guys who just didn't get a chance to put up big numbers for whatever reason--injury, stuck on a good team, playing for a rookie-hating coach, etc. Instead of focusing on the rookie of the year voting, I'm going to look at how I'd rank the 2007 class based on who I'd most want for the next 10 years:

1. Greg Oden. Nothing's changed here, Oden is reported to be healing nicely, and he still has the most potential of anyone in the class.

2. Kevin Durant. A somewhat rough start as he struggled with shot selection, but after the break he averaged 22 PPG on .476 shooting (.885 from the FT line). And he's 19, he won't be 20 until the start of next season. That's impressive. His all-around game needs a lot of work, there's no way someone who's 6'9 with great hops and a gigantic wingspan should be getting 4.4 boards per game, but that'll come with confidence and physical strength--Durant is at a minimum going to be an elite scorer, a 27-30 ppg guy, and has a good chance to develop into an all-around superstar. I'd still take Oden, but only by a hair.

3. Julian Wright. Regular readers know I've been falling in love with this kid for the last 3 months, I'm now fully and completely infatuated. Wright is big--a heavily muscled 6'8, 230 small forward; he's athletic; he's extremely skilled. In short, he has it all. He hasn't gotten much PT on a stacked Hornets team, but believe me, he'll work his way into the rotation by next year, you can't keep this kind of talent down. He's not a big time scorer, at least he wasn't at Kansas, but he has smooth scoring moves and a surprisingly sweet stroke on the J (with 3 point range), and his value comes from his versatility: he's an outstanding rebounder, gifted passer and strong one-on-one defender. This guy has *big time* written all over him.

4. Brandan Wright. Stuck on the Warriors with their notoriously rookie-hating coach Don Nelson, this Wright too was also only able to show flashes of his considerable potential, but I loved what little I saw. Wright is ridiculously athletic and silky smooth. He's undersized for a PF at 6'9 210, but he's only 20, he'll be able to add bulk and strength. Plus he plays taller than his 6'9 by having one of those incredible wingspans--combined with his hops and timing, he'll be a major shotblocker in the league. After the all star break when he finally started getting some regular PT, he averaged a full block per game in just 12 minutes. Wright also has some nice hands and should be a double digit guy on the boards. His offensive game is a little raw right now, but when he flashes his potential with a sweet turnaround J, or a bankshot from 12 feet out, I swoon. Jordan will soon be kicking himself in the balls for trading Wright away for Jason Richardson, mark my words.

5. Al Horford. I don't think Horford has superstar potential, unlike these other four, but I think he can be just below that level. Horford's a tough kid, he doesn't mind mixing it up inside and has already demonstrated he can really defend and rebound at this level--he's been a beast in the playoff series with the Celtics, averaging 12.5 & 11.5 and really helping the Hawks control the paint. However, I don't think he'll ever be a big shotblocker, and I don't think he'll ever be a 20 PPG scorer. I could easily be wrong about that, Horford's only 21 and could get a lot better.

Best of the rest, in no particular order:

Rodney Stuckey. A legitimate 6'5 point guard who can defend. He's a reliable jumpshot away from stardom.

Mike Conley. Another guy who could really use a jumper. Conley had moments where he oozed potential, and moments where he took a step backwards. I'm still high on him, and he's only 20, but I'll be expecting much bigger things from him next year. If not, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Memphis toss Javaris Crittenton in their "PG of the future" mix.

Jeff Green. Green has size and athleticism, but a funky set of skills where it make take him a while to figure out how to be a productive NBA player. He can do a lot of things well, but needs more reliable scoring moves.

Thaddeus Young. Young is an athletic PF, the second youngest guy in the league to only Durant, and he made a solid contribution to a quality team--and now he's causing problems for no less than the Detroit Pistons. In 55 starts, Young averaged 11 & 5 and shot .553 from the floor. Big time potential. It's between him and Stuckey for my #6 pick.

Carl Landry. Landry, the first pick of the 2nd round, is one of those superathletic, undersized power forwards who have a good record of success in the NBA. I'm not sure if he has the all around game to make it as more than just a solid rotation player, but he's explosive around the basket--after the all-star break he averaged 9.2 ppg in just 19 minutes on .628 shooting. One negative is that Landry is already 24, so 2-3 years older than most of his fellow rookies; if he's going to develop a more well-rounded game, he better do it quick.

Some younger guys who haven't done much yet, but have flashed some potential:

Yi Jianliang
Spencer Hawes
Sean Williams
Javaris Crittenton
Daquan Cook

Worst pick in the entire draft:

Corey Brewer. This guy just can't play. He's 22 and played 3 years of college ball, so he's a lot more experienced than most of his fellow rookies. He was given extensive playing time by Minnesota and given every chance to be productive. And he averaged 6-4-1 in 23 minutes and shot a putrid .375 from the floor. He's a pretty good defender, but (a) not as good as they thought he'd be, and (b) not good enough to overcome being the worst offensive player in the league among people who got real PT. Brewer was just godawful; if you held the draft today, I don't think he'd go in the first round period.

PLAYOFF UPDATE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Other than the Philly upset of the Pistons in game one, there haven't been any surprises in the eastern conference. Boston is just killing Atlanta, Orlando has taken two from Toronto, and Cleveland has also held serve in a fugly series with Washington.

I expect Boston and Orlando to continue to roll, and I think Detroit made a statement in game two. Philly's an interesting team, young and athletic, but I don't think they can knock off the Pistons three more times.

So that leaves Cleveland-Washington. Cleveland won a tight one in game one, and blew the Wizards out in game two. Now it goes back to Washington for games 3 & 4 to see if the Wiz can make this into an interesting series. Washington is really struggling to shoot the ball, with FG% of .402 & .375 in the first two games, they need their big 3 (Arenas, Butler, Jamison) to get hot. Cleveland's a pretty good defensive team, but they're not great, they're not the Spurs, I think it's only a matter of time before Washington starts putting the ball in the hole. I'm not saying they'll win the series, but they can at least make Cleveland work for it. FWIW, Vegas has Washington as a comfortable 5 point favorite tonight.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Not much surprising here either, but the games have been wildly entertaining. So too have been the individual performances. Already we've had:

Kobe: 49pts, 10 assists
Paul: 35 & 10, followed up by 32 & 17 (OK, that's just ridiculous)
Gasol: 36, 16 & 8
Duncan: 40, 15 & 5
Parker: 32 & 7

The Utah-Houston series is as good as over, Utah winning the first two games on the road. This one's got 4-0 written all over it.

The Lakers are looking good in their series with Denver, taking the first two games with relative ease. As predicted, the Lakers are getting layups and dunks, the Nuggets are getting jumpshots. It's hard to win that way. But this thing isn't over yet, let's see if Denver can hold court at home in games 3 & 4 before we move the Lakers on to round two. I'll bet Denver takes at least one of the two games--but I'll be shocked if LA somehow blows the series.

So that'd set up a really intriguing Utah-LA series in round two, a series that I'd be pretty worried about. It's a tough matchup for the Lakers, Utah being one of the few teams with both an oustanding PG (Deron Williams) and an outstanding post threat (Carlos Boozer). Plus they have that one great defender, Andrei Kirilenko, to put on Kobe. But the Jazz aren't a great defensive team outside Kirilenko, and the Lakers usually thrive against good-offense/bad-defense type of teams. I'm not sure how this one would play out, I'll have to think about it some more.

On the other side of the bracket, we have two series that had a lot of initial promise but might be over more quickly than anticipated.

I suppose it's a bit unfair to say that of the Phoenix-San Antonio series. The Spurs have a 2-0 lead, but we'll see soon enough whether Phoenix can take games 3 & 4 at home and make things interesting again.

Game one was an epic battle, one of the great playoff games in recent memory. I hate to make a big deal of the "intangible" bullshit that TWMASWs always wildly overrate, but dammit if the Spurs doesn't seemingly always gut out tough wins like this. I mean, Duncan hitting a three to send it to OT? Gimme a break.

Phoenix's offense looks out of sort to me. The Spurs are sagging down on Amare & Shaq and daring the Suns to hit outside shots, and they just can't do it. A lot has been made of Grant Hill playing at less than 100%, and I do think that hurts them, but what would help the Suns even more is if Leandro Barbosa could get back on track. They need someone to make the Spurs pay, to make them play honest, and no one's doing it. If Barbosa can have one of those 25-point games with 3-4 threes, that would go a long way toward opening things up on the inside.

I also think Boris Diaw could end up playing a huge role in the rest of this series. San Antonio plays Bruce Bowen on Steve Nash, which leaves them without a small forward to play on Diaw when Phoenix goes big (i.e., with Diaw-Amare-Shaq in the frontcourt). In the latter part of game two, Phoenix started finding success running their offense through Diaw in the post. I'll be curious to see if they go back to it a lot in game three.

I guess Dallas still has a couple games at home to show what they can do, but man, New Orleans has looked really good in their two wins. Not that this is anything you didn't already know, but Chris Paul is a goddamn basketball genius. He has 67 points and 27 assists in the two games, and he's shooting .641 from the floor--he's simply an asskicking machine. The Mavs made the Devin Harris-Jason Kidd trade to deal with bigger guards, but Kidd's about 7 steps slower than in his younger days and he's very vulnerable to the quicker PGs like Paul. But the Mavs tried Jason Terry on him, it didn't make a difference.

I don't think they're ever going to stop Paul unless he's just having a bad shooting night, but there is some hope for Dallas yet if they can clamp down on Peja, who's been scorching hot with 9 threes in the 2 games, and David West, who's quiet brilliance won't be so quiet if he keeps playing like this through the playoffs.

I'll be really curious to see what Dallas brings in game three with their season on the line. I think they still have a slight chance, but even if they can hold down Peja & West they still have a really unfavorable matchup at center, where Erick Dampier can't hang with Tyson Chandler's energy and athleticism. If the Mavs are going to somehow pull out this series, Dirk has to play like an MVP. He needs to wreck David West on the offensive end. And they need Josh Howard to snap out of his funk (7-26 shooting in the first two games). And they need Jason Kidd to channel his 2002 self. In other words, I think the Mavs are in big trouble.

APRIL, MAY AND JUNE MADNESS

The real NBA season starts tomorrow with game one of four different series, and I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve. The first round of the NBA playoffs is usually like the first round of the NCAA tournament--there might be an upset here and there, but the higher seeded team usually wins. But man, this year, especially in the West, it's just a total crapshoot.

I think the East will play to form with Boston and Detroit cruising (even though the Pistons have a tough, gritty Philly team that's been playing great since the all-star break, I just don't see Detroit struggling to win this one), and the Magic stomping on a downward-spiraling Toronto. That leaves a toss-up between Cleveland and Washington for the right to get hammered by Boston in the second round. I guess I'll take Cleveland here, but they're an ugly team and could easily be ripe for the plucking--with or without Gilbert Arenas making a huge contribution.

But the West is where all the action is, and I frankly have no idea what's going to happen in these series. The only upset that would surprise me in the least would be Denver over the Lakers, the other three are practically coin flips.

Here's how I see things:

LAKERS-NUGGETS

It's not that Denver's an easy matchup--they aren't. At all. But you have to pick your poison in the superstacked west, and this is the team I wanted the Lakers to play. I think LA will win, but I don't think it (or any other series) will be a walkover. My only real worry is who guards Iverson, but I think LA can and will still take them with Iverson putting up big numbers. Iverson can still light up the scoreboard with the best of 'em, but the Lakers will get any shot they want all series along against the Nuggets' godawul defense.

(BTW, this is one of many teams the Lakers would destroy if they had Andrew Bynum back; that'd allow LA to put Bynum on Camby (win), Gasol on Kenyon Martin (win), and Lamar Odom on Carmelo (loss, but it's a hell of a lot better than putting Vladimir Radmanovic or Luke Walton on him).

NEW ORLEANS-DALLAS

What an awesome first round series this is going to be. After starting out terribly after the Kidd trade, Dallas has settled down a bit and has been playing good ball. Not great ball, but good, and they're taking more advantage of Kidd's skills than they were earlier on. Dallas just beat New Orleans last night when the Hornets were going all out to knock Dallas into the 8th spot and get Denver as a first round matchup. And then you have the Hornets as this group of young and unproven players going up against one of the most battled-tested teams in the league.

I still think New Orleans is going to win this series. Vegas has them as a favorite, albeit a small one (about 58% to win). The teams split the season series, so that's more or less a wash. I guess I just think that people are underrating the Hornets' talent. Not Chris Paul, of course everyone sees his genius, but David West, Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic, Bonzi Wells and Jannero Pargo (hey, he can play) off the bench, Julian Wright as a future superstar and solid contributor for now--this team has some serious talent. Some people say they might be a year away, and they might be, but I'm going with CP3 and New Orleans here over a Dallas team that's well below where they've been the last few years.

PHOENIX-SAN ANTONIO

Holy crap, what a gift from the basketball gods. Two heavyweights who utterly despise each other duking it out in the first friggin round! It's unbelievable. Anyone with a sense of justice has to be rooting for Phoenix after David Stern stepped in last year and handed San Antonio that series on a silver platter by suspending Amare in one of the all-time most bogus sports commissioner moves.

San Antonio won't go down easy, they're tough as nails. They're also old and creaky, but they might have just enough to get a last championship run in if they can stay perfectly healthy throughout. San Antonio will have its usual problems getting killed by Amare and Nash, but they'll also have their usual strengths: Tony Parker making absolute mincemeat out of Nash on the other end, and the old pro Duncan getting Amare into foul trouble--and getting under Amare's skin. At least this year Phoenix has two big men who can take on Duncan defensively, and I think that's one of the main reasons they did the Shaq trade.

So who do I have here? Well, I'm praying for Phoenix to take out these buttwipes once and for all. But I don't think they're going to do it--I'll predict San Antonio in an epic 7-gamer. God, I hope I'm wrong.

HOUSTON-UTAH

No real strong feelings here, I sorta like both these teams. I guess I'd rather the Lakers play Houston in the next round, but Utah wouldn't be a terrible matchup either.

Houston has struggled quite a bit since the winning streak ended, but they did kill Phoenix in a crucial game last week, so I'm not sure what to think about them. I do know that Utah is a very solid team and extremely hard to beat at home (37-4 on the year)--and they have home court advantage. Vegas has Utah at about 70% to win, and I'm going to take them too. Houston certainly proved me wrong when I predicted they'd immediately fall out of the playoff race after Yao's injury; they're a tough, energetic, smart team, but I just don't think they have the horses to beat a solid club like Utah 4 times.

So there it is, take it for what it's worth--4 predictions I feel good about, 4 coin tosses. Let the battles begin.

LAKERS OUTLAST HORNETS IN WESTERN CONFERENCE SHOWDOWN

Unbelievable game tonight. The Lakers jump out to a 30 point lead, only for the Hornets to steadily cut it down (with classic NBA "even up" officiating (to go along with fantastic Hornets' defense)) to 6. The Lakers build it back up to 13, and Peja Stojakovic starts a insane bombing campaign that brings it down to 1. In the end--shockingly--it was the Lakers' defense that was the difference, holding the Hornets scoreless on about 5 straight possessions down the stretch to clinch it.

In the game-within-the-game, the MVP race between Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant, both participants were fantastic. Kobe had 29, 10 & 8, with just one turnover, and Paul had 15, 6, and 17 assists with four steals. Paul did have a rough shooting game, 4-13 from the floor, thanks to the outstanding individual defense played by Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar and the total team effort in helping out those two when Paul broke 'em down. Kobe outplayed him, and Paul stunk down the stretch when New Orleans couldn't get a good shot off to save their lives, but it's just one game, you can't decide the MVP race on that. Whoever you had going into the game should be your vote coming out of it. But I'll bet a lot of votes were influenced tonight, which tells you everything you need to know about the dipshits who vote for the NBA MVP.

Phoenix lost to Houston tonight, so it looks like they'll probably end up in that #6 slot with Houston at #5. That means that the Lakers-Spurs game Sunday will be enormous--the winner of that one will likely end up a 1 or 2 seed and playing Denver/Dallas; the loser will likely be the #3 seed and playing Phoenix. And I'm worried. I don't know if the Lakers can come off an emotional and high-energy win like tonight's and play strong a day and half later. And when you don't come ready to play against San Antonio, you lose. It's in LA, but I'm not sure home court will matter much in such a huge game--you know there won't be any home cooking officiating with all the world watching.

The good news is that the Lakers now probably have the (conference record) tiebreaker over New Orleans unless some weird stuff happens, so if they win Sunday, they have a great shot at that #1 seed. New Orleans would still need to lose 1 game, but they're at Dallas to close the season, and have a classic trap game tomorrow at Sacramento. But the key is getting either the 1 or 2, I just don't want any piece of Phoenix in a 7 game series.

GETTING DOWN TO THE WIRE

With around 5 games left in the regular season, things are just as wacky as ever in the wackiest season in recent sports memory.

EASTERN CONFERNCE

The Eastern Conference is more or less set, with only some jockeying between Washington, Philadelphia and Toronto for the 5-6-7 spots left. A potential Cleveland-Washington first round series could be intriguing--Cleveland has been stinking up the joint lately, and Washington now has super-wildcard Gilbert Arenas back. Of course the Wizards haven't been setting the world on fire lately either, Arenas has only been able to play 20 minutes per in his first two games before having to rest on the 2nd game of a back-to-back, and now Antawn Jamison has been out the last couple games with a shoulder injury (although he's expected back tonight).

But if those two can get healthy, I think it could be a really tough series for Cleveland. The big Ben Wallace trade probably did make them a little better, but they're an awkward, weird team with a bunch of players of pretty much equal talent about whom I don't think coach Mike Brown has solidified his feelings. It's crunchtime in a playoff game, do you go with Delonte West or Daniel Gibson? Joe Smith or Anderson Varejao? Wally Sczerbiak or Devin Brown or Sasha Pavlovic? I don't know, and I don't really think Brown knows either.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Western Conference, by contrast, is completely un-set, with the #1 seed up for grabs, two division championships (and guaranteed top 4 seeds) up for grabs, and the last playoff spot up for grabs. The Lakers, for example, could very realistically finish anywhere from the #1 seed to the #6 seed--with only 4 games left! Insanity.

OK, let's talk #1 seed. I think New Orleans will hold off San Antonio's fast and furious charge. New Orleans has a one game lead, they have an easier schedule over the final 5 games, and they have a better division and conference record (the next tie-breakers after head-to-head, which was a 2-2 split for these teams). But they each still have games left with the Lakers, so things could change pretty quickly. If the Lakers can manage to win out (the other 2 games are walkovers, if there's any such thing for a team with all the mental focus of an ADHD-afflicted puppy), they still have a good chance of grabbing the 1 seed.

But then the Lakers could still conceivably lose the division to Phoenix and finish outside of the top 4 seeds. It's unlikely, the Lakers have a game lead and win on the head-to-head tiebreaker, but it'll happen if they drop those 2 games (or choke in one of the "walkovers") and Phoenix wins out.

So I think the top 4 seeds will be New Orleans, San Antonio, Los Angeles, and other division winner Utah, but a hell of a lot can happen over these last 7 days of the regular season.

That would leave Houston and Phoenix fighting it out for the 5 & 6 seeds, which means...what? It means that the 3 and 4 seeds (currently the Lakers & Utah) could either be playing a Yao-less Houston who's only 6-5 since their winning streak ended, losing to every good team they've played--or you get Phoenix, who everyone in the conference is afraid to play. That's a big difference. To put it in perspective, Vegas has Houston at 15-1 to win the conference; Phoenix is at 4-1, ahead of everyone except the Lakers and Spurs.

Then you have Dallas, who looks like they've solidified the 7 seed. I don't think this team can win the conference (Vegas has them at 10-1), but it's definitely not a team I want to play in the first friggin' round of the playoffs. I'm hoping the Lakers get the 3 seed and get a 6 seeded Houston, avoiding that Phoenix/Dallas trap at the 5 & 7 seeds (this would assume Phoenix overtakes Houston's half-game lead for the 5 spot, which I think they will). I think the Lakers can beat Dallas, don't get me wrong, but each of their four games against the Mavs this year has been an all-out war. Even if they win the series, I think it'll take a lot out of them.

The Mavs still aren't the same team they've been the last couple of years, but I think they're starting to figure out how to get more value out of Jason Kidd; in the last game against the Lakers, they ran a heck of a lot more than I've seen them do since the Nash era. And they've managed to finally beat some good teams, which they were struggling to do since the trade, knocking off their archnemesis Golden State and notching a very solid win at Phoenix. I don't care who you are in the Western Conference, I'd be real leery of a playoff series with these guys.

Finally, we have Denver and Golden State, a couple of "score first, worry about defense later" doppelgangers, shooting it out for the final playoff spot. They're dead even, with an epic battle tomorrow (@ GS) that will probably (but not definitely) decide which one's in. Everyone in the conference is praying it's Denver since nobody, but nobody, wants to go up against Golden State in a playoff series, but I personally hope it's the Warriors. Even though the Lakers still have a shot at the 1 seed and would have to play in that nightmare matchup, I just admire how the Warriors go about their business. Not just because they run up and down the floor and hoist up shots and do cool stuff, although that's a lot of it. But I also like how tough they are, everyone always having to defend bigger and stronger players (which NBA players hate doing), and never complaining about it. They might not be a great defensive team, but it's certainly not for lack of effort; the aptly-named Warriors bust their asses out there in each and every game.

I think New Orleans, San Antonio or the Lakers would take 'em, but I wouldn't bet my life against another stunning upset. And the Warriors would make any of those teams have to work and sweat to make it through to the next round. Denver, on the other hand, I think would be easy fodder for any of the top teams. They and Houston are my dream first round matchups, the only two teams out of the eight possibilities who I know the Lakers can beat with or without Andrew Bynum.

It's amazing that there's still so much up in the air with just a handful of games left, I can't ever remember a season even remotely like this one. And once those games are finished and the playoff spots are finally determined, that's when the real wackiness starts. Have you ever seen 4 first round playoff series where you weren't positive about any of them? Here are the current matchups, tell me which one of these you'd bet your house on:

New Orleans-Golden State
San Antonio-Dallas
Lakers-Phoenix
Utah-Houston

THE STATE OF THE EAST

The state of the Eastern Conference is bad, I'm not going to lie to you, but it does have several things going for it:

1. Its elite teams, Boston and Detroit, are just as good as anyone in the West, so the important thing is that we'll likely have a great Finals regardless of the interconference talent imbalance.

2. The rest of the conference might not be as good as their western counterparts, but there are some interesting teams and some possibly interesting series looming. More on that in a second.

3. Lebron James

So let's get to it.

THE CONTENDERS

Boston

As you probably expect, Boston is being made a huge favorite to win the conference--sportsbook.com has them at 1-3 vs. the Pistons at 5-2. Personally, I think that's nuts. I think they definitely deserve to be the favorite, but not by such a huge margin. They have a tough road to the finals, with Lebron and company lurking in that conference semifinals round. That's absolutely a conceivable upset, especially if Cleveland's shooters can get hot. And then there's what most likely would be an epic showdown with Detroit for the conference championship--two talented, veteran teams, an old school playoff series with flagship franchises. I'm excited just thinking about it.

Boston is back to playing some great ball after a tiny hiccup in February. They went 13-3 in March, with wins over Phoenix, New Orleans, @Dallas, @Houston, @San Antonio and Detroit. They're getting a very nice contribution from their starting role players, Rondo (11 & 5 since the break) and Kendrick Perkins (7.5 & 7.5 on .692 shooting with 2 blocks per), and also from their bench with James Posey, Eddie House, Leon Powe, Tony Allen and Glenn Davis. Sam Cassell has been a real disappointment for them so far, he's shooting poorly and is a major defensive liability, but he could still possibly pay off in the playoffs.

This is a damn good team. They're fully healthy, they're a matchup nightmare for anyone, and their biggest concern coming into the season--depth--looks to solid enough, it'll be hard to take these guys down...

Detroit

...but that doesn't mean it can't be done. The Pistons stumbled a bit in mid-March with 4 losses in 10 games, but in the last week the team bounced back to beat a red-hot Phoenix in one of the best NBA games of the year (without an injured Rip Hamilton), and crushed nemesis Cleveland on Saturday.

What I really like about Detroit's chances is that their starters have played low minutes on the year--all 5 between 30 & 34 minutes per game--a change from previous years where they were at more like 36 minutes per. The reason they've been able to do this is the emergence of one of the stronger benches in the league, led by Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Jarvis Hayes, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, and the old pro (and underrated signing) Theo Ratliff. I expect these guys to have less impact in the playoffs when Flip tightens up the rotation, but their contribution in the regular season will allow the starters to be fresher for the championship run, and that's extremely valuable.

I think the keys for this team against Boston (and I'm certainly not counting out the possibility of an Orlando upset in the semis) is what their keys always are: Chauncey & Sheed. The Celtics are probably the better team, but the Pistons present two major matchup problems: Rajon Rondo can't guard Chauncey Billups, and Kevin Garnett (famously) can't guard Rasheed Wallace...WHEN Rasheed is in the post, that is. Those two matchups are what makes me think Detroit has a better chance than Vegas is giving them credit for. What was disturbing in the last game from a few weeks ago was that while Billups once again ripped Rajon Rondo, Rondo also ripped Chauncey pretty good. That matchup needs to be a slamdunk for the Pistons to win the series, they can't have Rondo scoring at will when it's already so hard to match up with their Big 3.

SPOILER (and just maybe more)

Cleveland

OK, I think Cleveland's a pretty average team, while Boston and Detroit are as good as anyone in the league--but I'm just not counting out Lebron James period. He thrives in playoff basketball, and he guarantees that their opponent will always have one matchup where they get destroyed. The guy is averaging 31-8.5-7.5 since the all-star break, if you don't fear this team in a 7-game playoff, you're crazy.

A couple of other things going on here:

a. Zydrunas Ilgauskas got in the time machine and went back to 2004, because he's averaging 15 & 9 with 2 blocks since the all-star break. He's an old, slow, broken guy, but he can still cause problems for people.

b. The absolute key for Cleveland is their shooting. With Lebron commanding an entire defense's attention, shooters will be open. If Gibson, Szczerbiak, Jones, West and Pavlovic are hitting those open threes, now whattya do?

Basically this team's chances come down to a bunch of 'ifs', and teams like that don't usually win. But if they shoot well, if Ilgauskas can keep up this energy level, if Varejao gets his head out and starts shooting better than 36% from the floor, and when Lebron kicks the crap out of everyone, the Cavs are capable of pulling the upset on either of the two big boys.

INTERESTING TEAM (but I don't think so)

ORLANDO

I like Orlando and think they're a quality team, but I don't think they can beat Detroit in that semifinal series--and could even conceivably lose to a dangerous Philly/Washington/Toronto in the first round. Like Cleveland, they have that same one-man-matchup-nightmare in Dwight Howard, but like Cleveland they're also really dependent on their outside shooting. When Lewis, Turkoglu, Bogans, et al are on, Orlando can play with anyone, but they're inconsistent enough that they can lose to anyone too. In my experience, the big 3-shooting teams never run the gauntlet because sooner or later their shooting is going to cool off and they won't be able to score--especially in the playoffs where tougher-than-normal defense is played (and allowed by the officials).

Plus they have shaky guard play, which a defensive team like the Pistons thrives on. Their team assists to turnovers is 20.4 to 14.0; for comparison, the Pistons are at 22.6 to 11.0. I'm also not sure if Dwight Howard, at just 22, is ready to score 30 a game if that's what it takes for them to win a tough series. Not for lack of effort, Howard plays as hard as anyone in the league--I just don't know if he has the game for it yet (once again, especially in the more physical playoffs). When Shaq was scoring 30 a game in the Lakers' championship runs, it wasn't all dunks and layups, he had to pull out a whole bag of post-scoring tricks to get those points. I don't think Howard has that ability to score in a bunch of different ways yet.

Howard's going to keep getting better and better, and when he does I think Orlando will be right there with the Lakers, Hornets, Trail Blazers and other 2010-2011-2012 championship competitors--but I don't think they're there yet.

DON'T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN

I think the eastern conference playoffs will go to form, with Detoit beating Orlando and Boston beating Cleveland in the semifinals--but I won't be completely shocked if one of Philadelphia, Washington or Toronto pulls off a major upset. These teams all have something to offer:

Philadelphia: A smart, tough team that's been playing great ball for a while; they're 19-7 in their last 26 (a 60-win pace) and they've knocked off many good teams -- @Boston, Denver, San Antonio, @Detroit, @Phoenix, Orlando, Dallas.

Washington: A good team now that Caron Butler is healthy, potentially more than that when they get Gilbert Arenas back (which could be shortly). They're an unorthodox team that causes big mismatch problems with Butler, Jamison and Arenas. They could fizzle out in 4 or be the next Warriors-type giant killers.

Toronto: They were disastrous for most of the month of March, but have steadied the ship a little since Chris Bosh has come back from injury, going 4-3 in their last 7. I don't think they have a ton of talent, but it is a hard team to match up with. Bosh is going to kill your best interior defender with his quickness and skill, they have two outstanding PGs, and a whole host of guys who can shoot the ball. They have a puncher's chance.