JASON KIDD RUMORS SWIRLING

Rumors are hot and heavy regarding a 3-team deal between Dallas, Portland and New Jersey in which Dallas would get Kidd, Portland would get Devin Harris, and New Jersey would get some combination of Travis Outlaw, Jerry Stackhouse, Desagana Diop, Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye and draft picks.

Some thoughts:

1. I think it makes sense for Dallas to give up Harris-Stackhouse-Diop, but I don't think it's a total slam dunk like most people seem to. Devin Harris can hoop, he's like a poor man's Tony Parker who can play defense. I looked at his January numbers today, he's averaging like 16 & 7 with 1.5 turnovers and a .547 shooting %. That's very, very good. He's like Parker in that he's just *so fucking quick* that he's unguardable by anyone in the league.

However, his upside is limited since we're essentially talking about a 6'2 scoring guard. Harris is a good ballhandler and picks up assists because he drives & kicks so much, but--again like Parker--he's not a natural point guard. So even if he completely flourishes, well, I'm all for having another Tony Parker on my team, but only if he's surrounded by 1-2 other studs. I don't want a 6'2 guard being the focal point of my offense, I don't want Parker/Gordon/Barbosa/Harris taking the highest number of shots on my team. So while I think Harris is going to end up being a very good player, I think superstardom is out of reach.

And I don't think you pass up a chance to win a championship when your star is already 30 (and is shaky at crunch time to start with). Now's the time for Dallas, and Kidd makes that team hella-scary. I put it this way a friend earlier: in a playoff series against the Spurs, would you rather rely on Dirk to create his own offense against Bruce Bowen, or have everyone on the team--including Dirk--get tons of open shots with Kidd? I like the latter a lot better. The only problem I see is that Kidd isn't the defensive player he once was, Harris makes for a better defensive matchup against Nash & Parker, but I think Kidd's superior offense, rebounding and leadership (he's one of the few players I've ever seen Kobe defer to, so that tells you something about the respect Kidd commands around the league as a floor general) more than offset that.

2. If Portland ends up with Harris....holy shit. I mean, holy shit is that team going to be good. I like Travis Outlaw a lot, but Harris is way ahead of him (not to mention that Outlaw can be replaced at least adequately with Martell Webster & James Jones, while Portland could really use another good ballhandling guard like Harris). That gives you the big guard/little guard setup that San Antonio has with Ginobili-Parker so that even if Roy is your quasi-PG and Harris your quasi-SG, you can switch them defensively. Lining up with Roy-Harris-Webster-Aldridge-Oden? Wow. That's formidable. And all under 25.

3. As for New Jersey...ah, who cares. I guess if I were them I'd be looking for the *one best player* I could find (including what I could get with a draft pick)--I don't really care about getting a million mediocre players, I just want one really good one. Travis Outlaw is a young, exciting player with some upside left, but I don't know if it's enough to make this deal. The rest of these guys--Stackhouse, Frye, Jack, Diop--are nothing, those are replacement level players available every year.

4. I just pray the Lakers stay far, far away from this discussion. Kidd would be a great short term addition to any team, even at his advanced age, but the future--like, the very near future--is insanely bright for the Lakers and I don't see any reason to mess around with it.

I especially don't want any part of it if Jordan Farmar is included in the deal, which he'd probably have to be. You heard it here first: Farmar is about to blow up. He has great athleticism, great handles, he's a good passer, an active defender, and he turned himself from a bricklayer into a deadly shooter in one year's time. I feel about him the way I did about Andrew last January--he's one year away. I'll predict Farmar's 2008-2009 line as 15-5-5 with great shooting percentages and lots of 3s & steals. He could probably do that now, he's just at that stage where he's not sure what he's capable of. He doesn't come into the arena every night expecting to score 15+ points. You know that hoary old cliche "he doesn't know how good he is"? Well, it's spot on in Farmar's case, just like it was Andrew's a year ago. He's playing with so much confidence right now, he's just about to turn the corner into "15 ppg guy"...but he's not quite there yet.

So I don't really want to mortgage a great future for a shot with J-Kidd. True, Kobe's getting up there too, but he's still in great shape, he's got at least 3-4 more years left at an elite level, and with Bynum and Farmar coming on like runaway freight trains, I just don't see any reason to make a move. Let Duncan, Nash, Dirk, KG, and the Pistons' crew keep getting older, sit tight, and you (and Portland, with or without Harris) are in the driver's seat by 2010.

9/11 TIMES A MILLION

So just when Andrew Bynum is looking like the next great big man in the NBA and the savior of the Kobe era in Los Angeles, he trips over goddamn Lamar goddamn Odom and messes up his kneecap. He's out eight friggin' weeks. The Lakers struggled to victory over crap-ass Seattle Tuesday night without him, and Phoenix's loss to the Clippers last night has left the Lakers--for now--with the best record in the West.

What could have been.

This team was playing great basketball, a legit championship contender, and Bynum was turning into a truly dominant player. The problem, as I see it, is that Bynum isn't a perennial 20-10 guy coming back from injury, where it's just a matter of time and health before he gets back to where he was. He was just starting to know what it's like to be a great player for the first time in his career, and now he's taken 10 steps back.

I've pretty much written the rest of the season off. Bynum isn't the most confident guy in the world to start with, and he'll be even shakier coming off injury. No way he'll be the dunking/rebounding/shotblocking machine he's been over the last month. He's thrived by being a phsyically dominant player, and I don't see a 20-year-old kid coming off a major knee injury jumping right back into the fray with full abandon.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll be fine in the long term, I'm still very high on Big Andrew's (and the Lakers') future. But his body has never let him down before, and now he has to deal with that--I'm guessing it'll take some time to get back to where he was. I always thought it'd be 2009 at a minimum before the Lakers were contenders, Bynum's astonishing improvement over the last month ratcheted up expectations into the stratosphere--now I'm just pushing them back to where I had them before. 2009, baby. Lakers.

Now I'm going to go lie down and throw up.

NON-BYNUM NEWS

Boston is cooling off after a scorching hot start, dropping three of their last 4, including one to Charlotte and two consecutive to surprisingly not-awful (but not-great either) Washington. Boston averaged a paltry 83 points over the 4 games, showing that it's not just all about defense. There's no excuse for a team with 3 of the 20 best offensive players in the league to score 83 points. Now it's true Rajon Rondo has been hurting and they have almost no point guard depth (Damon Stoudamire anyone?), but still, this is Charlotte and Washington, not San Antonio and Detroit.

I personally don't think coaching counts for much in the NBA, but 0ne as bad as Doc Rivers might cost this team in the playoffs. The Pistons are now just 2.5 games behind Boston for best record in the league, with the Lakers another 2 games behind that.

Miami has lost 10 in a row to sink to 8-28. They need to go 33-13 the rest of the way to get to .500, which is around what it usually takes to get a #8 playoff spot in the crappier conference. That's not going to happen. This team has zero chance of making the playoffs. Right now I'd start playing for the Michael Beasley sweepstakes and pack it in for D-Wade at *any* sign of an injury setback. Fortunately for them, they might be bad enough to get the #1 pick even if Wade stays healthy (I expect Minnesota to show some improvement if and when Randy Foye gets on the court, they're in dire need of competent guard play).

But this is probably a blessing in disguise. They're capped out thanks to the horrific Shaq contract ($20M per over the next 2 years after this one), so the only way they're getting any better is (a) the draft, or (b) getting lucky with Dorrell Wright and/or Daequan Cook, the way the Lakers did with Andrew Bynum. But Wright & Cook aren't precociously gifted 7'1 300 pound centers. If Miami has any hope of retaining Dwyane Wade after he opts out in the summer of 2010, they need to have a serious talent upgrade, and being very, very sucky this year is probably the best way of accomplishing that. If they make some shortsighted trade for an aging, overpaid veteran with major question marks, a Ron Artest or Mike Bibby, I will smack myself in the forehead or chuckle. Possibly both.

New Orleans is 15-5 on the road. That's pretty crazy--only the Celtics are better in the entire NBA. The Hornets are 25-12 overall, half a game behind heavyweights San Antonio and Dallas. If I were doing an MVP ranking right now, Chris Paul is easily top 3. Over the last month, he's averaging 22 & 11.6, with just 2.2 turnovers--that's a 5.3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Nash's over that time is 3.3:1, Kidd's is 2.9:1. Amazing player.

STUFF AND THINGS

OK, I'm back--sorry about the down period, this is my busiest time of the year. I should be back on a somewhat regular schedule now.

1. Regarding the Lakers' fairly easy win over Phoenix on Christmas Day--look, I always say one game in the NBA doesn't matter. There are too many factors--who's hot that particular night, who's healthy, who's been traveling, who's on a back-to-back, who got into the hotel at 3 AM the previous night, who's hung over, etc. So I'm not going to put too much stock in the victory, the Suns are still the better team in my mind.

EXCEPT...if I'm the Suns, I'm worried about 3 very disturbing trends from that game:

1. Andrew
2. Fucking
3. Bynum

Bynum absolutely tore Phoenix apart. They started out with their usual small lineup, with Amare Stoudemire at center, but it was quickly apparent that Bynum is just too big and strong for Stoudemire to hang with defensively now. They were forced to go to Brian Skinner off the bench and play him 22 minutes--almost double his usual playing time. They don't want Skinner out there, that's a last resort desperation move. And the beauty of it is (a) Skinner can't do much about Bynum either, Big Andrew finished with 28 (on 11-13 shooting) & 12 boards; and (b) having Skinner in the game really bogs down the Suns' offense.

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And another beautiful thing is that Bynum stayed on Amare the entire game, giving Lamar Odom basically a freebie defensive assignment hovering with Skinner 12 feet out on the baseline (where I'm sure the Lakers have no problem letting him shoot all day long). Stoudemire finished with a quiet 19 & 6 and spent the game in foul trouble. So what we have is this: Bynum can guard Stoudemire, but Stoudemire can't guard Bynum. Advantage, Lakers.

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Phoenix has struggled in the playoffs against the Lakers even in the Lakers' sucky years--now that they're a legimately good team, and the absolute wrong matchup for the Suns, I can guarantee they don't want to see the purple & yellow come playoff time.

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2. More on Bynum. Bynum finished December averaging 14 & 9 with 2.7 blocks--in 4 games in January, he's upped that to 17 & 12 with 2.8 blocks. He's arriving. Rapidly. He's very, very big, he's very, very strong, he has the best hands in the league since the young Shaq, and his athleticism has seen a massive improvement in a year's time. He's now a top 5 center in the league, and a top 10-15 "guy I'd like to build around".

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A year ago we were talking about (essentially) Bynum & Odom for Kidd, or for Deng/Gordon, or for Amare. The first two deals are obviously a joke now, and--get this--I'm not sure I'd trade Andrew for Amare straight up right now. How insane is that? OK, it's pretty insane, maybe I don't actually believe it. Amare's already a superstar, Bynum still has a ways to go.

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But I'm becoming pretty convinced that Amare will always be a terrible defensive player, while Bynum is on the cusp of being that rarest of treasures--the true defensive stud big man, the guy who blocks 3 shots a game and alters 10 more, and who scares everyone shitless from even coming into the lane. Even an unmotivated defender like the young Shaq had plenty of defensive value just from his intimidation factor. Andrew intimidates. He's becoming a real defensive force out there, and that's a valuable guy to have. Maybe I'd take a straight up deal for Amare, but the Kidd/Deng/Marion deals are completely and utterly off the table now. Unless they want an Odom/Farmar deal, which ain't half bad.

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3. The hot teams. In their last 10:

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Boston 9-1, but that loss was last night...by 12...at home...to Charlotte! It was without Ray Allen, but it just goes to show how precarious it all is for Boston. It's not just that they're an injury away from sucking--everyone in the league is, look at San Antonio floundering around without Ginobili. But when your 3 superstars are all old, you have to pray everytime somebody goes to the floor.

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Detroit 8-2, but they've dropped their last 2 to league elites Boston & Dallas. No worries, this is a good, solid team who knows how to win in the playoffs, and they've now developed a highly promising youth movement. More on Rodney Stuckey below.

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Dallas 8-2, with 5 straight wins. Looks like they're getting their shit together, as expected--but this is still a team with a 7-8 road record. I wouldn't call them a slam dunk for the Western Conference Finals by a long shot.

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New Orleans 8-2. This team is great when their shooters are on, mediocre when they're off (like last night against the Lakers). Fortunately for them, their shooters are usually on--and with Chris Paul running the show, they're always getting open looks. And you know how I was talking about Andrew Bynum beating up on Phoenix a few paragraphs up? Well, in two games against the Suns (both Hornets' wins), Tyson Chandler has put up 19 & 11 and 14 & 18 and outplayed Amare both games. They really struggle with that big, athletic center (I mean, even more than other teams).

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Portland 9-1. The Blazers continue to be the hottest team in the league. They finished December at 13-2, and have now won 4 straight to open January. They're now up to 22-13 (after a 5-11 start) and have taken a half game lead on Denver for the division lead. They're just a good, smart team who takes care of the ball and plays tough D. They can shoot the 3 with Martell Webster, James Jones and Steve Blake, they have Lamarcus Aldridge's money post scoring, and Brandon Roy's calm, cool leadership. I love this team, I absolutely can't wait to see what they do with Greg Oden on board.

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And then there are the Lakers at 8-2. A lot of you have asked if I'm downright giddy at what's happened this year so far. Yes. Yes, I am. It's really beyond a best case scenario, with Bynum turning into not just a good quality starter, but the league's next dominant big man. Jordan Farmar has become a solid ballhandler, a pesky defender, an outstanding transition finisher and a money shooter and now looks like a 10 year starter in the NBA.

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Going into the year, we needed massive improvement from these guys to salvage any last remaining hopes of the Kobe Era in Los Angeles, and that's what we've gotten (and remind me to tell you about the potential-oozing Javaris Crittenton some time). It remains to be seen whether this is a legitimate title contender (now and next year, before Kobe's opt-out date) or just another quality team who can't run with San Antonio, Dallas and Phoenix, but at least it's a question mark at this point and not a Kobe Bryant fire sale.

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4. Players

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So we finally get the first appearance of Rodney Stuckey, and I for one like what I see. He reminds me a lot of Chauncey Billups actually. He can't pull like Chauncey, but he's a big, thick guard who knows how to use his body to get where he wants to go. Like Chauncey, he's not a super-classic point, more of a combo guard, and he's not the quickest guy in the league; but he's a very solid ballhandler (28 assists to 12 turnovers thus far), he's physical, he has the potential to be an excellent finisher in the lane, and he's a very active defender.

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I said going into the draft last year that with all the question marks, someone was going to get a total steal at 15-25. It's still way early, but right now I'd say it's a race between Stuckey, Sean Williams in NJ, Nick Young in Washington, Daequan Cook in Miami, and Javaris Crittenton in LA, with maybe Williams in the lead.

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Over the last month (15 or so games):

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Iverson's averaging a shade under 30, shooting .470 from the floor and .875 from the line, with 6 assists and 2 steals. An amazing, underappreciated player.

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Looks like D-Wade is more or less back to his old self, averaging 27-5-7.5 with 2 steals and a block. But 4.6 turnovers per for the season? Wow, what's the NBA record? I haven't watched a lot of their games on account of their suckitude, but I can picture what's going on, I've seen it with Kobe--it's hard for supertalented and superdriven players to play for such shitty teams without trying to do too much. Well, no biggie, they wouldn't exactly be competing for a championship this year even if Wade were playing more under control. Let him go wild.

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After a horrendous start, Jason Richardson is really starting to come alive. He's averaging 24-5-3 over the last month with 3+ threes per game, and shooting .492 from the floor. For the season he's shooting a ridiculous .447 on 6.4 three attempts per game.

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Ben Gordon's been on fire now that Scott Skiles is no longer breathing down his throat; he's averaging 27 in the 7 games and shooting .511 from the floor and .486 from three.

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Chris Paul gets most of the credit for the Hornets' emergence, and rightly so, but David West's 21 & 10 over the last month has helped too. He just keeps getting better and better every single year. This marks his 5th straight season increasing both his point and rebound averages.

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Memphis is finally coming to their senses, abandoning all hope for this season and turning the team over to its youth contingent. Mike Conley's gotten the last 4 starts and--as predicted--has responded well, averaging 10-5-6 with 2 steals and just 2 turnovers per game. He can't shoot, but he can get anywhere he wants on the court at any time, and he can really handle the ball. I'm very high on this kid.