OPENING DAY THOUGHTS

I see as many as 7 teams that can win the championship this season. They fall into 3 tiers:

Teams that can win right now, they require nothing further

1. Lakers. The favorite to win the NBA championship this year, but not a runaway favorite. They still have health questions with Bynum, chemistry issues with Bynum/Gasol/Odom, a concern that their role players (Vujacic, Fisher, Radmanovic, Farmar) played over their heads last year and are going to come back down to earth, and one last question mark that you don't hear very much about--Kobe's noticeable decline over the last two seasons. Don't get me wrong, he's still one of the best players in the league, but he's not as good as he was 2-3 years ago, and he's at an age (especially considering the huge number of games he's played for his gae) where decline typically happens. Fortunately, if everything else goes right--that is, if Andrew Bynum approaches anywhere near what he was when he got injured last year, and all signs are positive so far--they don't need the Kobe from 05-06 in order to win.

2. Boston. Their big three is another year older and they lost a key player from a thin bench in James Posey, but they also have upside with their young players--Rondo, who I absolutely love, along with Perkins, Powe and Davis. I expect them to once again be utterly dominant on the defensive end, and with enough offensive fire power to at least win the East.

3. New Orleans. There honestly aren't a lot of question marks here. They're young, they're talented, they're deeper than last year (adding James Posey), and they're led by Chris Paul, who's well on his way to joining the all-time greats. The only thing I can see here is that they had remarkably good health last year, with practically every important player logging 75+ games. That's not a typical NBA season. Maybe they'll go another year largely unscathed, but if not we'll see how the young Hornets deal with a little adversity.

Teams that can win it with just one thing going right:

4. Utah. Utah is another good, young, deep team, but they have one gaping weakness that the Hornets and Lakers don't: terrible interior defense. That's what happens when you start Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. But they're a damn good offensive team, and their leader, Deron Williams, may well make the jump to superstardom this year. Nobody's going to want a piece of these guys in the playoffs.

5. Detroit. Unless Joe Dumars makes a significant move during the season, which could certainly happen (how do you feel about Vince Carter? Big risk, big reward), the potential for the Pistons to challenge the top tier lies with their three young guys--Rodney Stuckey, Amir Johnson, and Jason Maxiell. Flip Saunders was fired for not playing these three enough, so I'm assuming new coach Michael Curry will give them every chance to do their thing. Now what that thing is is the question. Is Stuckey going to remain a solid rotation player, like last year, or is he ready to essentially be a third starter and put up 15 ppg? Is Amir Johnson in over his head as a starter or can he give the team some much needed athleticism up front and get 8-9 boards and monster blocks? And if Johnson's not ready to start, is Maxiell ready to jump in? In short, I don't know. I'm very high on these guys, but I just don't know if this is the year. What I do know is this: if they don't get major production out of these three, they're not going to beat the Celtics in the playoffs, and might not be able to beat a solidly improved Cleveland and Orlando (not to mention potential giant Philadlephia).

Teams that need to stay healthy but probably won't

6. Houston. Maybe they belong in the second tier because they've proven they can win without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, and they've now added Ron Artest to what was already one of the league's best defenses. Here's the thing though, I think they played way over their heads and I'm not sure their chances are as simple as taking last year's win total and adding the value of Ron Artest to it. If they can stay healthy, they'll be monsters, as good as anyone in the league. But if Yao or McGrady gets injured again, and at least one probably will, I think the Rockets could be looking at major disappointment.

7. San Antonio. Like I said last year, I'm not counting these guys out until Tim goddamn Duncan retires. They didn't do much to improve, but then this is a team that finished a game out in the West and beat red-hot New Orleans in the conference semis. They were outclassed by the Lakers in the conference finals, but they were also playing with a noticeably dinged-up Manu Ginobili. But that's the problem, there's a good chance that at some point during the playoff grind, they're going to have Duncan, Ginobili or Parker dinged up, and they flat out can't beat the best teams in the league when that happens.