GAME ONE

Fuck.

The Lakers had a golden opportunity to take game one on the road and steal homecourt advantage--a few timely shots at the end when both teams were ice cold might have done it--but I'm still pretty concerned at what happened last night.

I know, I know, the Lakers had that opportunity to win even with Kobe having a godawful shooting night, but then Garnett, too, missed a bunch of shots he usually makes, so I'm not sure what to make of the "what if the superstar didn't suck balls?" analysis.

What I find worrisome are a few trends that, if they continue, will probably mean the Lakers' demise:

1. Paul Pierce. Yikes. The Lakers handled him pretty well in the first half, but only by double teaming him relentlessly. When they tried to go with one defender on him--even when it was Kobe--Pierce went off. He's a dangerous player, man, he can put the ball in the hole in a bunch of different ways. The Lakers have two hopes here, one is that if they go back to the double, the rest of the Celtics don't/can't make them pay for it; the second is that Pierce was red friggin' hot in that 3rd quarter, hopefully he'll come back down to earth a little Sunday--but even if he does, I'm still pretty concerned about him.

1a. Trevor Ariza. 0 minutes, despite the fact that he's far and away the best defensive matchup on Pierce, who was kicking the crap out of LA. Damn. Guess it's time to write him off for the series.

2. Pau Gasol. He can't have games where he scores 15 on just 11 shots, he has to be way more aggressive out there. If you're going to get your ass handed to you on the boards (more on that later), and you're going to play so-so defense, then you need to put up some goddamn points. I swear to god, I need to watch some Memphis game film because I can't fathom how he scored 20 a game without being set up for a million layups and dunks like he usually is with the Lakers. His post game has been nonexistent through the entire playoffs. When you're the #2 guy on a championship caliber team, you have to be prepared to be the go-to guy on those occasions where the #1 guy is stinking up the joint. See Pierce, Paul.

3. Rebounding. I was really worried about this going in, and all my worst fears have been confirmed. Even with Kendrick Perkins playing only 23 minutes and grabbing only 4 boards, the Celtics outrebounded the Lakers 46-33. Eek. PJ goddamn Brown had 6 in 21 minutes; Garnett was Garnett; Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo combined for 13. Meanwhile Gasol and Odom combined for 14, that's just not going to do it. It became such a big problem that Phil Jackson went to the little-used Gasol/Turiaf combo at the big spots (one bright spot in the game was that Turiaf played pretty well).

I think the Lakers were OK on the defensive glass, they gave up some key offensive rebounds, but they didn't just get hammered there--the problem was more on the other end. It's one thing not to get many offensive rebounds, it's another to not even be able to contend for them. I swear it seemed like literally every trip down in the 2nd half was a one-and-done. Boston's a really good rebounding team, the Lakers (sans Andrew Bynum) just aren't, this will continue to be a trouble spot for them.

4. Rajon Rondo. I said yesterday that if he plays well, the Lakers are in big trouble. Well, he played a pretty nice game, 14 pts, 5 boards, 7 assists, 2 turnovers. The Lakers have enough problems guarding the Big 3, they don't need this little gnat making it even harder. Hopefully we'll see the "Pistons series Rondo" Sunday and/or when the series goes to LA.

So those are the big 4 problem areas as I see them. I didn't mind the shots Kobe took (after the 1st quarter, anyway), those were largely makeable for him and he had a bunch of rim-outs. I'd like to see him go to the basket more when his shot isn't falling, but I'm not worried about him going forward.

I liked what Fisher & Vujacic gave them, they have to continue to be aggressive. Radmanovic played great, except he picked up a foul for every 3 minutes he was in the game--as predicted when I heard they were putting him on Pierce. I wonder if Phil will flop Kobe & Radmanovic, give Vladdy a break by putting him on Allen instead. If he's going to remain on Pierce, he needs help on literally every possession, which of course opens things up for KG, Allen & Rondo. It's all part of the chess match.

So where am I after game one? I guess I'm pretty worried, to be honest--the Celtics are as good defensively as San Antonio, and they have the firepower to avoid those long droughts San Antonio had in every Lakers win. But Vegas--astonishingly, IMO--still has LA as a very slight favorite, so maybe things aren't all that bad after all. I think I might put a bet down on Boston. Even if the Lakers win game two, I don't think they can take three straight in LA. That moves the series back to Boston, so the Lakers in that scenario would have to take two road games. Obviously it's in the realm of possibility, they damn near took the game last night, but I think I'd make Boston the slight favorite given the one game advantage and homecourt.