DING DING, ROUND TWO

We're still waiting on game 7 of Atlanta-Boston to get the conference semifinal field set, but seeing as how the other three series start today and tomorrow, I want to get my predictions down.

DETROIT-ORLANDO

I know the Pistons didn't look great in a surprisingly tough series with Philadelphia, but I'm still predicting a solid win against Orlando--I just don't think the Magic are the kind of team that gives Detroit trouble.

Dwight Howard will undoubtedly wreak some havoc; Rasheed is a great post defender, but Howard has a huge size and athleticism advantage over him. And the way the Magic work, spreading the floor with a bunch of deadly shooters, it makes it really hard to give your main post defender help. But the Pistons did a good job of keeping him contained in the regular season, Howard's 17 & 11 averages against them well below his usual 21 & 14. As long as Rasheed stays out of foul trouble, I see Howard being a handful, but not putting up 2001-Shaq-style 30 & 20s.

Where I think the Pistons win this is with their perimeter defense. What they struggle with a little bit now is penetration, they're still excellent at sticking on shooters, and that's what Orlando's supporting cast is--a bunch of shooters. Turkoglu could cause some problems, he's turned into an outstanding all-around player; but that's where Detroit's defensive ace, Tayshaun Prince, comes into play. I'm not worried about Turkoglu really lighting up Tayshaun. Another key matchup will be Detroit's secondary big man defender--McDyess and Maxiell mostly--on Rashard Lewis. That might sound a little ugly at first, but Lewis is not great at putting the ball on the floor and going to the basket.

I see the series coming down to the Chauncey Billups-Jameer Nelson matchup. Two weeks ago I'd have said that was a slam dunk for the Pistons. But in the first round, Nelson had a fantastic series (17 & 5, shooting 52% from the floor and 50% from 3), and Billups really stunk (15.5 & 7, 40% and 33%). The good news is that Billups turned it around in the last two games, with 21 and 20 points on good shooting, and his usual good defense on Andre Miller after he'd been burned earlier in the series. If Billups clamps down on Nelson and stays consistent with his shot, I think the Pistons win it. If not, if he gets outplayed like he did early in the Philly series, I think the Pistons are in trouble. If Nelson is penetrating, that breaks down the Pistons' team defense and opens up all kinds of possibilities for Howard and the shooters.

LAKERS-UTAH

I think the Lakers are going to win this series, but I don't think it'll be easy. LA usually beats good offense/bad defense teams, but Utah has a couple of matchups that are killers for the Lakers--Derek Fisher on Deron Williams, and Lamar Odom on Carlos Boozer. I fully expect those two to score at will. But it works both ways, the Jazz's interior defense is awful, I don't think they can stop Pau Gasol or Odom at all.

The key here is Andrei Kirilenko on Kobe; Kirilenko is as good a defender as you can ever put on Kobe, but I still don't think he can keep Kobe from controlling this series. I expect both teams to score a lot of points, but the Lakers to score just slightly easier. Kobe will do what he does, but if it comes down to Gasol & Odom getting layups/dunks and Boozer & Williams getting jumpers--much the same narrative as the Lakers-Nuggets series--the Lakers win.

SPURS-HORNETS

Oh my god, this series is going to be awesome. It's old vs. new, experience vs. energy, talent vs. talent. The conventional wisdom is that the Spurs take this somewhat easily, with the Hornets maybe not quite ready for primetime. I don't see that, I think this is a total coin flip. I see some major issues for the Spurs in this series, starting with the obvious--Chris Paul is a matchup nightmare for them. The Spurs put Bruce Bowen on Steve Nash, but I don't think he can handle the insanely quick Paul. The Spurs beat the Suns largely because Tony Parker so thoroughly outplayed Steve Nash; but in this series, PG is all of a sudden a matchup that the Spurs probably lose--to what degree is a question that will play the defining role in the outcome of this series.

There's a wide range of opinion on Chris Paul's defensive ability, whether he's a lock down type defender or an overrated steals guy--this series will go a long way for me. If you want to test your perimeter defense skills, Tony Parker is the guy to do it against. FWIW, I'm slightly in the "overrated steals guy" camp, and I expect Parker to score at will--but I think Paul will be even better on the offensive end and will control this series.

The Spurs have a good matchup against the underrated David West with their ability to put Tim Duncan on him--but that leaves Tyson Chandler to wreak havoc on the glass, on the fearsome Hornets' alley-oop, and defensively in terms of controlling the lane (if they don't end up having to put him on Duncan, which they might have to). West can take you out to 15-20 feet with his excellent jumper, that means Duncan might be spending some time away from the rim; if that's the case, I can see Chandler causing some serious problems for the Spurs. Oberto and Thomas are good players, but they can't hang with Chandler's size, athleticism and incredible energy level. Not to mention that if you can take Duncan away from the basket, it opens things up for Paul's penetration. I don't think Bruce Bowen can contain Paul, and I know Tony Parker can't--the question is whether the "San Antonio Spurs team" can.

Here's a key question for me: how does New Orleans handle Ginobili? The usual Hornets' starter at SG is Morris Peterson, I think that's a huge mismatch in the Spurs favor. But the Hornets do have tough guy Bonzi Wells on the bench, I wouldn't mind seeing him mix it up with Ginobili at crunch time--that would be fun to watch. I wonder if Ginobili takes super-sub Jannero Pargo, who was oustanding in the Dallas series, out of the game somewhat. The Hornets like to go with that small backcourt of Paul and Pargo at the same time, but Ginobili would wreck Pargo. I guess maybe you could stick Pargo on Bowen and have a SF like Peterson, Wells or Julian Wright on Ginobili--that's the problem in going with a defensive specialist like Bowen, it allows the other team to hide a crappy defender by having him hang out with Bowen in the corner.

This is going to be good, man, this is going to be fun. I guess I'll take the Spurs to win it, but I think it's going to be a hell of a lot harder than everyone thinks.