PLAYOFF UPDATE

LAKERS-NUGGETS

The Lakers finished up a sweep of the uninspired Nuggets, Kobe ending up averaging 34-5-6, Gasol 22-9-5, and Carmelo shooting .364 in a beyond horrible series. At least the Nuggets got a glimpse of what Linas Kleiza and JR Smith (23 & 22, respectively) might be in the future, and even got a few minutes of PT from the ever-promising and ever-elusive Nene. This team has some pieces and potential, but I think we can call the Carmelo-Iverson experiment a raging failure. Unfortunately for them, I don't think there's a chance in hell Iverson outs out of his contract this year when he sees what options are out there and who (nobody) wants to pay him $20M/year.

CELTICS-HAWKS

How about those Hawks?! They held court at home to force a 2-2 tie with Boston, which seemed almost impossible after the first two blowouts. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves on a player who struggles with consistency, but Josh Smith was absolutely phenomenal in the two games, going for 27-9-6 in game three and 28-6-2 with 7 blocks in game four. He really bothered Garnett on the defensive end, Garnett had a hard time dealing with Smith's incredible athleticism. Smith is only 22 and the sky's the limit, but this is also a guy who scored 19 total over the first two games on 6-23 shooting; in other words, he's just not at the stage where he can bring it every night, and that's what separates the true superstars from the other good players. But again, he's 22--Smith has a chance to be something special. I'll be really curious to see what he and the rest of the young Hawks do in games 5-6-7. I still don't think they'll win it, but it would be great if they could keep the Celts working til the end. And, hey, there's always the 2007 Warriors, I guarantee that series is in the dark recesses of the minds of the Celtic players.

PISTONS-SIXERS

Detroit is still the better team, I'm absolutely convinced of that, but they're having a hard time matching Philly's athleticism and energy level. I often think that when people believe they see a disparity in effort level, it's more about a disparity in talent, but not here--the Pistons need to play harder, plain and simple. Philadelphia is young and unseasoned, and they've already shown in this series that they can't handle ugly, physical NBA playoff basketball--when the Pistons make the game tough and physical, they win. When they don't, Philly wins. The Pistons know what they have to do, and I expect a comfortable win tonight (as does Vegas, the line is 9). If not, and if it's because their energy and toughness level isn't there again, I'm officially removing the Pistons from my list of potential NBA champions.

SPURS-SUNS

We can add Tony Parker's 41 & 12 in game three to the list of incredible playoff performances this year, he dominated that game as much as any six footer has ever dominated a crucial playoff game. He was unbelievable, flawless, he did whatever he wanted against any individual defender and against any team defense alignment. The Suns bounced back in game 4 to open the door ever so slightly, but as you surely have heard 47 times, NO NBA TEAM HAS EVER COME BACK FROM 3-0. Game 5 tonight is big, if the Suns steal it on the road they have a game at home to force a superhuge game 7 with all the momentum and all the sports world focusing on San Antonio to see if they pull the historic choke job. But I don't see it happening; I just think the Spurs are better and tougher, and that they'll end this thing tonight, leaving a potentially epic series with the unproven-but-extremely-talented Hornets in the conference semis.
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ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

1 Kevin Durant
2. Al Horton
3. Who cares?

It was kind of a sucky year for rookies, but I still don't think this class was a disappointment--far from it, in fact, I think this is potentially a monster class. I see a lot of talent out there, and guys who just didn't get a chance to put up big numbers for whatever reason--injury, stuck on a good team, playing for a rookie-hating coach, etc. Instead of focusing on the rookie of the year voting, I'm going to look at how I'd rank the 2007 class based on who I'd most want for the next 10 years:

1. Greg Oden. Nothing's changed here, Oden is reported to be healing nicely, and he still has the most potential of anyone in the class.

2. Kevin Durant. A somewhat rough start as he struggled with shot selection, but after the break he averaged 22 PPG on .476 shooting (.885 from the FT line). And he's 19, he won't be 20 until the start of next season. That's impressive. His all-around game needs a lot of work, there's no way someone who's 6'9 with great hops and a gigantic wingspan should be getting 4.4 boards per game, but that'll come with confidence and physical strength--Durant is at a minimum going to be an elite scorer, a 27-30 ppg guy, and has a good chance to develop into an all-around superstar. I'd still take Oden, but only by a hair.

3. Julian Wright. Regular readers know I've been falling in love with this kid for the last 3 months, I'm now fully and completely infatuated. Wright is big--a heavily muscled 6'8, 230 small forward; he's athletic; he's extremely skilled. In short, he has it all. He hasn't gotten much PT on a stacked Hornets team, but believe me, he'll work his way into the rotation by next year, you can't keep this kind of talent down. He's not a big time scorer, at least he wasn't at Kansas, but he has smooth scoring moves and a surprisingly sweet stroke on the J (with 3 point range), and his value comes from his versatility: he's an outstanding rebounder, gifted passer and strong one-on-one defender. This guy has *big time* written all over him.

4. Brandan Wright. Stuck on the Warriors with their notoriously rookie-hating coach Don Nelson, this Wright too was also only able to show flashes of his considerable potential, but I loved what little I saw. Wright is ridiculously athletic and silky smooth. He's undersized for a PF at 6'9 210, but he's only 20, he'll be able to add bulk and strength. Plus he plays taller than his 6'9 by having one of those incredible wingspans--combined with his hops and timing, he'll be a major shotblocker in the league. After the all star break when he finally started getting some regular PT, he averaged a full block per game in just 12 minutes. Wright also has some nice hands and should be a double digit guy on the boards. His offensive game is a little raw right now, but when he flashes his potential with a sweet turnaround J, or a bankshot from 12 feet out, I swoon. Jordan will soon be kicking himself in the balls for trading Wright away for Jason Richardson, mark my words.

5. Al Horford. I don't think Horford has superstar potential, unlike these other four, but I think he can be just below that level. Horford's a tough kid, he doesn't mind mixing it up inside and has already demonstrated he can really defend and rebound at this level--he's been a beast in the playoff series with the Celtics, averaging 12.5 & 11.5 and really helping the Hawks control the paint. However, I don't think he'll ever be a big shotblocker, and I don't think he'll ever be a 20 PPG scorer. I could easily be wrong about that, Horford's only 21 and could get a lot better.

Best of the rest, in no particular order:

Rodney Stuckey. A legitimate 6'5 point guard who can defend. He's a reliable jumpshot away from stardom.

Mike Conley. Another guy who could really use a jumper. Conley had moments where he oozed potential, and moments where he took a step backwards. I'm still high on him, and he's only 20, but I'll be expecting much bigger things from him next year. If not, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Memphis toss Javaris Crittenton in their "PG of the future" mix.

Jeff Green. Green has size and athleticism, but a funky set of skills where it make take him a while to figure out how to be a productive NBA player. He can do a lot of things well, but needs more reliable scoring moves.

Thaddeus Young. Young is an athletic PF, the second youngest guy in the league to only Durant, and he made a solid contribution to a quality team--and now he's causing problems for no less than the Detroit Pistons. In 55 starts, Young averaged 11 & 5 and shot .553 from the floor. Big time potential. It's between him and Stuckey for my #6 pick.

Carl Landry. Landry, the first pick of the 2nd round, is one of those superathletic, undersized power forwards who have a good record of success in the NBA. I'm not sure if he has the all around game to make it as more than just a solid rotation player, but he's explosive around the basket--after the all-star break he averaged 9.2 ppg in just 19 minutes on .628 shooting. One negative is that Landry is already 24, so 2-3 years older than most of his fellow rookies; if he's going to develop a more well-rounded game, he better do it quick.

Some younger guys who haven't done much yet, but have flashed some potential:

Yi Jianliang
Spencer Hawes
Sean Williams
Javaris Crittenton
Daquan Cook

Worst pick in the entire draft:

Corey Brewer. This guy just can't play. He's 22 and played 3 years of college ball, so he's a lot more experienced than most of his fellow rookies. He was given extensive playing time by Minnesota and given every chance to be productive. And he averaged 6-4-1 in 23 minutes and shot a putrid .375 from the floor. He's a pretty good defender, but (a) not as good as they thought he'd be, and (b) not good enough to overcome being the worst offensive player in the league among people who got real PT. Brewer was just godawful; if you held the draft today, I don't think he'd go in the first round period.