THE STATE OF THE EAST

The state of the Eastern Conference is bad, I'm not going to lie to you, but it does have several things going for it:

1. Its elite teams, Boston and Detroit, are just as good as anyone in the West, so the important thing is that we'll likely have a great Finals regardless of the interconference talent imbalance.

2. The rest of the conference might not be as good as their western counterparts, but there are some interesting teams and some possibly interesting series looming. More on that in a second.

3. Lebron James

So let's get to it.

THE CONTENDERS

Boston

As you probably expect, Boston is being made a huge favorite to win the conference--sportsbook.com has them at 1-3 vs. the Pistons at 5-2. Personally, I think that's nuts. I think they definitely deserve to be the favorite, but not by such a huge margin. They have a tough road to the finals, with Lebron and company lurking in that conference semifinals round. That's absolutely a conceivable upset, especially if Cleveland's shooters can get hot. And then there's what most likely would be an epic showdown with Detroit for the conference championship--two talented, veteran teams, an old school playoff series with flagship franchises. I'm excited just thinking about it.

Boston is back to playing some great ball after a tiny hiccup in February. They went 13-3 in March, with wins over Phoenix, New Orleans, @Dallas, @Houston, @San Antonio and Detroit. They're getting a very nice contribution from their starting role players, Rondo (11 & 5 since the break) and Kendrick Perkins (7.5 & 7.5 on .692 shooting with 2 blocks per), and also from their bench with James Posey, Eddie House, Leon Powe, Tony Allen and Glenn Davis. Sam Cassell has been a real disappointment for them so far, he's shooting poorly and is a major defensive liability, but he could still possibly pay off in the playoffs.

This is a damn good team. They're fully healthy, they're a matchup nightmare for anyone, and their biggest concern coming into the season--depth--looks to solid enough, it'll be hard to take these guys down...

Detroit

...but that doesn't mean it can't be done. The Pistons stumbled a bit in mid-March with 4 losses in 10 games, but in the last week the team bounced back to beat a red-hot Phoenix in one of the best NBA games of the year (without an injured Rip Hamilton), and crushed nemesis Cleveland on Saturday.

What I really like about Detroit's chances is that their starters have played low minutes on the year--all 5 between 30 & 34 minutes per game--a change from previous years where they were at more like 36 minutes per. The reason they've been able to do this is the emergence of one of the stronger benches in the league, led by Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Jarvis Hayes, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, and the old pro (and underrated signing) Theo Ratliff. I expect these guys to have less impact in the playoffs when Flip tightens up the rotation, but their contribution in the regular season will allow the starters to be fresher for the championship run, and that's extremely valuable.

I think the keys for this team against Boston (and I'm certainly not counting out the possibility of an Orlando upset in the semis) is what their keys always are: Chauncey & Sheed. The Celtics are probably the better team, but the Pistons present two major matchup problems: Rajon Rondo can't guard Chauncey Billups, and Kevin Garnett (famously) can't guard Rasheed Wallace...WHEN Rasheed is in the post, that is. Those two matchups are what makes me think Detroit has a better chance than Vegas is giving them credit for. What was disturbing in the last game from a few weeks ago was that while Billups once again ripped Rajon Rondo, Rondo also ripped Chauncey pretty good. That matchup needs to be a slamdunk for the Pistons to win the series, they can't have Rondo scoring at will when it's already so hard to match up with their Big 3.

SPOILER (and just maybe more)

Cleveland

OK, I think Cleveland's a pretty average team, while Boston and Detroit are as good as anyone in the league--but I'm just not counting out Lebron James period. He thrives in playoff basketball, and he guarantees that their opponent will always have one matchup where they get destroyed. The guy is averaging 31-8.5-7.5 since the all-star break, if you don't fear this team in a 7-game playoff, you're crazy.

A couple of other things going on here:

a. Zydrunas Ilgauskas got in the time machine and went back to 2004, because he's averaging 15 & 9 with 2 blocks since the all-star break. He's an old, slow, broken guy, but he can still cause problems for people.

b. The absolute key for Cleveland is their shooting. With Lebron commanding an entire defense's attention, shooters will be open. If Gibson, Szczerbiak, Jones, West and Pavlovic are hitting those open threes, now whattya do?

Basically this team's chances come down to a bunch of 'ifs', and teams like that don't usually win. But if they shoot well, if Ilgauskas can keep up this energy level, if Varejao gets his head out and starts shooting better than 36% from the floor, and when Lebron kicks the crap out of everyone, the Cavs are capable of pulling the upset on either of the two big boys.

INTERESTING TEAM (but I don't think so)

ORLANDO

I like Orlando and think they're a quality team, but I don't think they can beat Detroit in that semifinal series--and could even conceivably lose to a dangerous Philly/Washington/Toronto in the first round. Like Cleveland, they have that same one-man-matchup-nightmare in Dwight Howard, but like Cleveland they're also really dependent on their outside shooting. When Lewis, Turkoglu, Bogans, et al are on, Orlando can play with anyone, but they're inconsistent enough that they can lose to anyone too. In my experience, the big 3-shooting teams never run the gauntlet because sooner or later their shooting is going to cool off and they won't be able to score--especially in the playoffs where tougher-than-normal defense is played (and allowed by the officials).

Plus they have shaky guard play, which a defensive team like the Pistons thrives on. Their team assists to turnovers is 20.4 to 14.0; for comparison, the Pistons are at 22.6 to 11.0. I'm also not sure if Dwight Howard, at just 22, is ready to score 30 a game if that's what it takes for them to win a tough series. Not for lack of effort, Howard plays as hard as anyone in the league--I just don't know if he has the game for it yet (once again, especially in the more physical playoffs). When Shaq was scoring 30 a game in the Lakers' championship runs, it wasn't all dunks and layups, he had to pull out a whole bag of post-scoring tricks to get those points. I don't think Howard has that ability to score in a bunch of different ways yet.

Howard's going to keep getting better and better, and when he does I think Orlando will be right there with the Lakers, Hornets, Trail Blazers and other 2010-2011-2012 championship competitors--but I don't think they're there yet.

DON'T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN

I think the eastern conference playoffs will go to form, with Detoit beating Orlando and Boston beating Cleveland in the semifinals--but I won't be completely shocked if one of Philadelphia, Washington or Toronto pulls off a major upset. These teams all have something to offer:

Philadelphia: A smart, tough team that's been playing great ball for a while; they're 19-7 in their last 26 (a 60-win pace) and they've knocked off many good teams -- @Boston, Denver, San Antonio, @Detroit, @Phoenix, Orlando, Dallas.

Washington: A good team now that Caron Butler is healthy, potentially more than that when they get Gilbert Arenas back (which could be shortly). They're an unorthodox team that causes big mismatch problems with Butler, Jamison and Arenas. They could fizzle out in 4 or be the next Warriors-type giant killers.

Toronto: They were disastrous for most of the month of March, but have steadied the ship a little since Chris Bosh has come back from injury, going 4-3 in their last 7. I don't think they have a ton of talent, but it is a hard team to match up with. Bosh is going to kill your best interior defender with his quickness and skill, they have two outstanding PGs, and a whole host of guys who can shoot the ball. They have a puncher's chance.