THE TRADES

Just when you think the era of the big NBA trade is all but dead, we have two absolute blockbusters in the last week: Pau Gasol goes to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, and a used jockstrap to clinch it, and Shaq--Shaq!!!--looks like he's on the way to Phoenix--Phoenix!!!--for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.

Now you know I get pretty geeked about the NBA even in the dullest of times--well, right now, I'm shaking like Amy Winehouse after she's gone 45 minutes without some kind of intoxicant. Let's discuss:

PAU GASOL

Ohmygod, ohmygod, ohmygod. This just couldn't have worked out better. We get a 27-year-old skilled 7-footer--and we get to get rid of KWAME BROWN?! Uh, did Memphis throw in one free blowjob from Salma Hayek for all Laker fans on top of it? My dogs are even more ecstatic than I am, never again will they have to cower in fear after I scream "box the FUCK out, Kwame!!!" I wanted to wait until Pau's (my first reference to him by his first name...sigh) debut before I posted, just to get a sense of what he's going to mean to this team, and the answer is...a lot. In what would otherwise have been a classic trap game, a would-be road loss to a so-so team when Kobe's not feeling it (3-13 from the floor, 7 turnovers), Gasol came up with 24-12-4--pretty much the difference between winning and losing.

He was great on the boards--he's pretty soft, but he does play like a 7-footer, he plays above people's heads. And he has some soft hands, which is night and day from Kwame. He caught several passes and took down several offensive boards that Kwame wouldn't have gotten in a million years. He knows how to finish around the basket (again, totally unlike Kwame, who's downright comedically spastic at that), and his passing was superb. His 4 assists could have been 6 or 7 if people had knocked down open shots.

I still think he's going to be slightly less involved when Andrew Bynum is fully healthy. Gasol has a nice touch around the rim, Andrew has a nice power dunk around the rim. There's a difference. And Bynum is a *miles better* defensive player than Gasol, who's quite frankly awful on that end. I think the Lakers are going to continue to give up a lot of points until Bynum and Ariza (in place of the also defensively-deficient Luke Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic) are healthy. I mean, Andrew's the franchise, post-Kobe. He's the intimidator, he's the force, he's the guy *nobody in the league* can match up with. He's the guy who just scared Phoenix into making an imbecilic trade (more on that below).

But I still think Gasol will play a huge role. Andrew will hold the fort in the low post, Gasol will play the high post or split out on the baseline, two areas where triangle offense PFs like Horace Grant thrived. And I think we're going to see a lot of the offense run through him at the high post--his passing is excellent, he can stick that foul-line jumper, and he has a nice little take to the basket for a big man. Plus he'll probably get some pick-and-rolls run for him, judging from tonight. That staple of good basketball has been almost non-existent in LA for 10 years, but the Lakers pulled it out for two key possessions in the fourth quarter tonight and Gasol converted on both with ease.

If I had to pick some numbers for Gasol, I'd say pre-Bynum 20-10-4, post-Bynum (being *fully* healthy), more like 15-7-4.

The guy I really think might be marginalized upon Andrew's return is Lamar Odom. Gasol and Bynum together make Lamar's rebounding almost superfluous, and I think he'll be even more content to stay in the background offensively than he already is. Plus I just don't think he can defend opposing 3s, he's struggled with that in the past. This team isn't going to need much on offense with Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and lots of good shooters, but a big weakness on D (in addition to Gasol) could really hurt them. I could see Odom's numbers dwindling to something like 10-7-3. Which is fine with me, but I can understand if Jerry Buss and Mitch Kupchak don't want to pay $15M a year for that kind of production--so what I'm saying is, don't be shocked if you see Lamar traded for seemingly pennies on the dollar this summer.

So do I think the Lakers can win a championship? Yes, but I'm thinking probably not this year. I don't think they're good enough defensively without Bynum at 100%, and I don't think he's going to be the same player he was when he gets back. It doesn't take long for an Elton Brand to return to superstardom after an injury, but Bynum's different, this was a kid who was experiencing for the first time what it was like to be a great NBA player. A lot of his success depends on energy and confidence, and I think that'll be the hard thing for him to get back after the injury. Plus there will be some awkwardness and confusion over integrating Bynum with Gasol, and I'm worried Bynum won't be in the mindset to take over as the man in the middle over a much more experienced Gasol.

But Kobe's 29, Gasol's 27, Odom's 28, Farmar's 21, Andrew's 20--I can wait. This team is here to stay as a contender for at least the next 3-4 years. I'd love to see them make a run this year, but if it doesn't happen, well, the future's still pretty goddamned bright.

SHAQUILLE

What the hell is Steve Kerr thinking? I just don't get this on any level. You give up a younger, cheaper player who's a better fit for your team for someone who's old, injury prone, and wildly overpaid...why?!? I personally think Shawn Marion is a bit overrated, definitely overpaid, and one of the league's true assholes, but man, at least he can still play. Shaq will probably get motivated in a hurry going to a championship contender, but look, he's still old, fat, slow and extremely dinged up. I just don't get this at all.

Actually, I do have a reason, even though I think it's an idiotic one: Andrew Bynum. I'm always saying that one regular season game doesn't mean anything, but that Christmas Day game--as predicted--had a huge impact on the Phoenix Suns' psyche. That was the game Andrew Bynum physically dominated the manhood out of Amare Stoudemire, forcing the Suns to go to Brian Skinner for large stretches of the game. I think that really scared them, and this Shaq trade is the resulting panic move.

I do think Shaq, unlike Amare, can hold his own defensively with Andrew Bynum--for now, that is. Check back in another 45 seconds or so when Andrew has left Shaq in the dust once and for all. But that comes at the cost of losing a guy who was tailor-made for Mike D'Antoni's system--*and* at an additional $20M in salary in 2009-2010. And that's assuming Shaq is healthy, which he almost never is. This is a soon-to-be 36 year old man who has never taken care of himself and never will. (I mean--would you? You're an all-time great with 4 rings, how the hell are you going to motivate yourself to get up at 8:00 AM in the offseason--when you're already hurting--to get your ass into the gym?)

I know there's some major spat between Amare and Marion and maybe this means they just can't coexist, but geez, this is the best you can do? Bottom line, I don't want Shaq on my team at any cost. To think you could have had Kobe a year ago--I love Amare Stoudemire too, but would you rather have Nash-Kobe-Marion or Nash-Amare-Shaq? That's an absolute no-brainer. Like Chicago, they just blew it. When you have a chance to get a Kobe, especially if your mission is to win now, as it is with the Suns, you do it.

But I just don't see how Shaq's going to work on this team. I can't stress enough what a bad fit he is for the Suns' system. Shaq still has some value as a player--while healthy--but look, you can't run with Shaq. You just can't. And if you try to, all you're doing is playing 4-on-5 while simultaneously not taking advantage of the skills of your highest paid player. Shaq can still score in the halfcourt. What he can't do is run the break and finish.

And whither the famous Suns' pick-and-roll? That's their entire halfcourt offense! You can't pick and roll with Shaq, he can't shoot the foul-line jumper *and* he can't take the ball to the basket. And what happens when Shaq & Amare are in the game and you want to run that pick-and-roll with Amare, does Shaq clog up the lane and make that play easily defendable, or does he just stand around 20 feet from the basket with this thumb up his ass? That's a great way to spend $20,000,000.

Shaq does give them a good halfcourt scoring option, he gives them a better defensive rebounder (forget the numbers, if the ball is bouncing off the rim in crunch time, I want Shaq under it over Marion) and a much better interior defender than they currently have--and seeing as how this is Shaq we're talking about, that's one sad reflection on the state of Amare's suck-ass defense. But then maybe Amare's suck-ass defense won't be quite so awful when he's defending 4s instead of 5s and he's not responsible for being the big lane-clogging shotblocker on the team.

But what they lose is...well...everything that makes them the Suns. I have no doubt Boris Diaw can fill Marion's shoes and do a decent job, so the loss of Marion isn't what I'm talking about. It's the addition of Shaq and how you necessarily have to play when he's in the game. I don't know what the new Suns are going to look like, but it's going to be a hell of a lot different than what it's been the last few years.

Maybe D'Antoni and Kerr just looked at what they had and decided they flat-out couldn't win playing small in the west. That's their prerogative, of course, but I think they're really jumping the gun. I still think Phoenix was one David Stern robbery (the Amare suspension) against the Spurs from it being anyone's series, and I think they're right there again this year. I would have liked to have seen them give it one more chance before calling it quits.

I know they're afraid of the size of the other Big 4 western teams--yup, that's right bitch, LA has now made it a Big 4--but I feel like they've just committed themselves to playing a lot more like San Antonio, Dallas and Los Angeles with a roster that's not as good at it.

I think a good gauge for how a trade is going to shake out is to look at league reaction. The Gasol trade sent shockwaves through the league, team execs were literally angry that LA got him for so little. If opposing teams are unhappy, that's a good reason to think you did the right thing. Well, nobody in the West is unhappy about the Shaq trade. On the contrary, I feel like Phoenix just hurt their short term chances and utterly destroyed their post-Nash (he's 35) long term chances of competing.