MIHMPOSSIBLE DREAM

Thursday, January 10, 2008

STUFF AND THINGS

OK, I'm back--sorry about the down period, this is my busiest time of the year. I should be back on a somewhat regular schedule now.

1. Regarding the Lakers' fairly easy win over Phoenix on Christmas Day--look, I always say one game in the NBA doesn't matter. There are too many factors--who's hot that particular night, who's healthy, who's been traveling, who's on a back-to-back, who got into the hotel at 3 AM the previous night, who's hung over, etc. So I'm not going to put too much stock in the victory, the Suns are still the better team in my mind.

EXCEPT...if I'm the Suns, I'm worried about 3 very disturbing trends from that game:

  1. Andrew
  2. Fucking
  3. Bynum
Bynum absolutely tore Phoenix apart. They started out with their usual small lineup, with Amare Stoudemire at center, but it was quickly apparent that Bynum is just too big and strong for Stoudemire to hang with defensively now. They were forced to go to Brian Skinner off the bench and play him 22 minutes--almost double his usual playing time. They don't want Skinner out there, that's a last resort desperation move. And the beauty of it is (a) Skinner can't do much about Bynum either, Big Andrew finished with 28 (on 11-13 shooting) & 12 boards; and (b) having Skinner in the game really bogs down the Suns' offense.
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And another beautiful thing is that Bynum stayed on Amare the entire game, giving Lamar Odom basically a freebie defensive assignment hovering with Skinner 12 feet out on the baseline (where I'm sure the Lakers have no problem letting him shoot all day long). Stoudemire finished with a quiet 19 & 6 and spent the game in foul trouble. So what we have is this: Bynum can guard Stoudemire, but Stoudemire can't guard Bynum. Advantage, Lakers.
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Phoenix has struggled in the playoffs against the Lakers even in the Lakers' sucky years--now that they're a legimately good team, and the absolute wrong matchup for the Suns, I can guarantee they don't want to see the purple & yellow come playoff time.
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2. More on Bynum. Bynum finished December averaging 14 & 9 with 2.7 blocks--in 4 games in January, he's upped that to 17 & 12 with 2.8 blocks. He's arriving. Rapidly. He's very, very big, he's very, very strong, he has the best hands in the league since the young Shaq, and his athleticism has seen a massive improvement in a year's time. He's now a top 5 center in the league, and a top 10-15 "guy I'd like to build around".
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A year ago we were talking about (essentially) Bynum & Odom for Kidd, or for Deng/Gordon, or for Amare. The first two deals are obviously a joke now, and--get this--I'm not sure I'd trade Andrew for Amare straight up right now. How insane is that? OK, it's pretty insane, maybe I don't actually believe it. Amare's already a superstar, Bynum still has a ways to go.
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But I'm becoming pretty convinced that Amare will always be a terrible defensive player, while Bynum is on the cusp of being that rarest of treasures--the true defensive stud big man, the guy who blocks 3 shots a game and alters 10 more, and who scares everyone shitless from even coming into the lane. Even an unmotivated defender like the young Shaq had plenty of defensive value just from his intimidation factor. Andrew intimidates. He's becoming a real defensive force out there, and that's a valuable guy to have. Maybe I'd take a straight up deal for Amare, but the Kidd/Deng/Marion deals are completely and utterly off the table now. Unless they want an Odom/Farmar deal, which ain't half bad.
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3. The hot teams. In their last 10:
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Boston 9-1, but that loss was last night...by 12...at home...to Charlotte! It was without Ray Allen, but it just goes to show how precarious it all is for Boston. It's not just that they're an injury away from sucking--everyone in the league is, look at San Antonio floundering around without Ginobili. But when your 3 superstars are all old, you have to pray everytime somebody goes to the floor.
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Detroit 8-2, but they've dropped their last 2 to league elites Boston & Dallas. No worries, this is a good, solid team who knows how to win in the playoffs, and they've now developed a highly promising youth movement. More on Rodney Stuckey below.
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Dallas 8-2, with 5 straight wins. Looks like they're getting their shit together, as expected--but this is still a team with a 7-8 road record. I wouldn't call them a slam dunk for the Western Conference Finals by a long shot.
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New Orleans 8-2. This team is great when their shooters are on, mediocre when they're off (like last night against the Lakers). Fortunately for them, their shooters are usually on--and with Chris Paul running the show, they're always getting open looks. And you know how I was talking about Andrew Bynum beating up on Phoenix a few paragraphs up? Well, in two games against the Suns (both Hornets' wins), Tyson Chandler has put up 19 & 11 and 14 & 18 and outplayed Amare both games. They really struggle with that big, athletic center (I mean, even more than other teams).
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Portland 9-1. The Blazers continue to be the hottest team in the league. They finished December at 13-2, and have now won 4 straight to open January. They're now up to 22-13 (after a 5-11 start) and have taken a half game lead on Denver for the division lead. They're just a good, smart team who takes care of the ball and plays tough D. They can shoot the 3 with Martell Webster, James Jones and Steve Blake, they have Lamarcus Aldridge's money post scoring, and Brandon Roy's calm, cool leadership. I love this team, I absolutely can't wait to see what they do with Greg Oden on board.
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And then there are the Lakers at 8-2. A lot of you have asked if I'm downright giddy at what's happened this year so far. Yes. Yes, I am. It's really beyond a best case scenario, with Bynum turning into not just a good quality starter, but the league's next dominant big man. Jordan Farmar has become a solid ballhandler, a pesky defender, an outstanding transition finisher and a money shooter and now looks like a 10 year starter in the NBA.
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Going into the year, we needed massive improvement from these guys to salvage any last remaining hopes of the Kobe Era in Los Angeles, and that's what we've gotten (and remind me to tell you about the potential-oozing Javaris Crittenton some time). It remains to be seen whether this is a legitimate title contender (now and next year, before Kobe's opt-out date) or just another quality team who can't run with San Antonio, Dallas and Phoenix, but at least it's a question mark at this point and not a Kobe Bryant fire sale.
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4. Players
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So we finally get the first appearance of Rodney Stuckey, and I for one like what I see. He reminds me a lot of Chauncey Billups actually. He can't pull like Chauncey, but he's a big, thick guard who knows how to use his body to get where he wants to go. Like Chauncey, he's not a super-classic point, more of a combo guard, and he's not the quickest guy in the league; but he's a very solid ballhandler (28 assists to 12 turnovers thus far), he's physical, he has the potential to be an excellent finisher in the lane, and he's a very active defender.
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I said going into the draft last year that with all the question marks, someone was going to get a total steal at 15-25. It's still way early, but right now I'd say it's a race between Stuckey, Sean Williams in NJ, Nick Young in Washington, Daequan Cook in Miami, and Javaris Crittenton in LA, with maybe Williams in the lead.
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Over the last month (15 or so games):
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Iverson's averaging a shade under 30, shooting .470 from the floor and .875 from the line, with 6 assists and 2 steals. An amazing, underappreciated player.
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Looks like D-Wade is more or less back to his old self, averaging 27-5-7.5 with 2 steals and a block. But 4.6 turnovers per for the season? Wow, what's the NBA record? I haven't watched a lot of their games on account of their suckitude, but I can picture what's going on, I've seen it with Kobe--it's hard for supertalented and superdriven players to play for such shitty teams without trying to do too much. Well, no biggie, they wouldn't exactly be competing for a championship this year even if Wade were playing more under control. Let him go wild.
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After a horrendous start, Jason Richardson is really starting to come alive. He's averaging 24-5-3 over the last month with 3+ threes per game, and shooting .492 from the floor. For the season he's shooting a ridiculous .447 on 6.4 three attempts per game.
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Ben Gordon's been on fire now that Scott Skiles is no longer breathing down his throat; he's averaging 27 in the 7 games and shooting .511 from the floor and .486 from three.
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Chris Paul gets most of the credit for the Hornets' emergence, and rightly so, but David West's 21 & 10 over the last month has helped too. He just keeps getting better and better every single year. This marks his 5th straight season increasing both his point and rebound averages.
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Memphis is finally coming to their senses, abandoning all hope for this season and turning the team over to its youth contingent. Mike Conley's gotten the last 4 starts and--as predicted--has responded well, averaging 10-5-6 with 2 steals and just 2 turnovers per game. He can't shoot, but he can get anywhere he wants on the court at any time, and he can really handle the ball. I'm very high on this kid.

3 Comments:

At 4:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great read/roundup, as always.
Tell me about the potential-oozing Javaris Crittenton.

 
At 8:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So how much do your daily text-message updates cost? (Surely you *do* offer them...)

 
At 9:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Horrible news re the Bynum injury

 

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