BREAKOUT PERFORMERS, PART 2

THE DARKHORSES

Before I get into it, let me clarify that I'm basing these picks on a ridiculously small sample size. See, I have this theory. Anybody in the NBA can have a good game. Hell, I remember a game when Matt Carroll---Matt freakin' Carroll--absolutely torched Kobe. The Lakers lost a game because one of the league's best perimeter defenders couldn't handle Matt freakin' Carroll.

But he didn't do anything special, he was just feeling it and had a lights-out shooting game. If he could make those shots every game, he'd be a shorter Dirk Nowitzi. But he can't consistently do what he did that night. I knew for a fact that I wasn't watching a breakout performance from one of the league's next superstars, I was just seeing a scrubby player get into the zone.

Now there's the opposite situation, where a player will do something that makes me do a double take, makes me look at him in an entirely different way. Matt Carroll can get red hot and make a bunch of shots, but he can't dribble through an entire team and throw down an absurd dunk in traffic--and when I saw Monta Ellis do that as a rookie, I took note.

I still didn't know for a fact that he'd end up being a real up-and-comer, there's still a major consistency issue. OK, you've done it once, now do it lots of times, game after game, season after season. But I did mentally adjust what I considered his top end to be.

I can watch one game of Matt Carroll's and know exactly how good he can possibly be. But when I see someone do something as spectacular as what Ellis did, it's like, wow, this guy could still end up sucking, he could still end up being mediocre, he could still end up being just pretty good--but he did something that showed me that he at least has a chance of being a real superstar, because that play was something that 95% of the league simply can't do, even when they're having one of those Matt-Carroll-torching-Kobe games.

So these are guys who've shown me something. Most games I'm watching that aren't the Lakers or Phoenix-Dallas or something, I'm only casually paying attention. But sometimes someone will do something that makes me literally double or triple take, where I'll have to rewind it a couple times to make sure I saw what I thought I saw. I still don't know if these players will pan out the way Ellis is doing, but they at least have the high end potential to be something more than Matt Carroll-in-the-zone.

In no particular order...

Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics

I love what this guy has done in preseason, he could end up being a valuable part of the support staff to the Celtics' big three. Rondo can drive on anyone in the league, he's a solid finisher, a good passer, and has some of the quickest hands in the NBA. If he can develop any semblance of a jumpshot, even a midrange one, he'll be a real tough matchup.

Shawne Williams, Indiana Pacers

I think this skinny 6'9 combo forward is still more than a year away (he's only 21), but I think he has a ton of potential--at least offensively. I saw a game of his late in the year where he looked fantastic, shooting the three, taking the ball to the rim, finishing on the break. He looks smooth out there, and with super high end athleticism. Check back in another year, I think he'll be on all the up-and-comer lists.

Thabo Sefalosha, Chicago Bulls

I said last year that this guy can really play, but will probably get lost in the shuffle in a talent-laden Chicago. Barring a trade, I don't see much different happening this year. That's OK, Sefalosha has time, he's only 23. Sefalosha, from Switzerland, is a super smooth shooting guard with great size, he's an excellent ballhandler, has nice form on the jumper, and could end up being an all-league caliber defender.

Amir Johnson, Detroit Pistons

Everyone has been waiting for this kid to finally get some PT after kicking ass in the D-League and putting up a couple monster games (f0r a second straight year) in late regular season scrub time, and the Pistons say he's going to get it this year. Playing against Philadelphia's decent first stringers last year, including a solid front line of Samuel Dalembert, Steven Hunter and Joe Smith, Johnson went for 12 & 10 with 6 blocks. Against the Celtics' Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins, an excellent and solid player respectively, Johnson had 20 & 12 with 3 steals and 4 blocks. If nothing else (this season), Amir will throw some weak shit back in people's faces, I can guarantee that.

Andray Blatche, Washington Wizards

This was a straight-from-high-school 2nd round draft pick in 2005 who kind of got lost in the shuffle a little, but is now starting to turn a few heads. He only just turned 21, and is a legit 6'11 250 pounds with excellent athleticism. The Wizards gave him a few starts last year and he averaged a solid 7 & 6 with 1.2 blocks per in only 23 minutes. He's got great size, great athleticism, a solid skill level with a suprisingly soft touch, and he's got nice energy. He also handles the ball pretty well, he's almost more of a combo forward than a PF/C type. I like this guy a lot. On a team with no real big man depth, I think Blatche could start to really bust out by the end of the season.

Darius Washington, San Antonio Spurs

OK, here's a real dark horse for you. Washington is out of Memphis, he left early after his sophomore year and went undrafted. The Mavs picked him up last year and then cut him, now he's with the Spurs. The 21-year-old point guard will likely contribute little to nothing this year for the champion Spurs, but keep an eye on him down the line. The Spurs are the best team in the league at indentifying talent (see: Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, et al), and I've read that they're super high on Washington. He's lightning quick, but with the size and strength to finish at the rim. He's not a lights out shooter, and isn't a natural PG--more of a combo guard. But he's been great in preseason and I think the Spurs are looking at him as an eventual part of a rebuilding process when the Duncan era ends (hopefully soon).

Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz

This is kind of a cheapie, as most hardcore NBA fans already know all about Millsap, an undersized PF out of Louisiana Tech, but I just want to reiterate how awesome he is and what a great draft pick Utah made to get him in the middle of the 2nd round. In just 18 minutes per game last year, Millsap averaged 7 & 5 with almost one steal and block per game. He's smallish at just 6'8, but he's wide (260 pounds), strong as hell, very active, and surprisingly athletic--don't PFs with that description seemingly always make it big in the NBA? Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, etc. Meanwhile the Lakers are stuck with Kwame Brown, an ideally sized block of muscle who's below average in every single aspect of being an NBA power forward.

Robert Swift, Seattle Supersonics

OK, I'm going way out there again. Swift not only has done almost nothing in his short NBA career, he's also now coming off a major knee injury that cost him an entire season. It's just that 2 years ago, his second season in the NBA, I thought he was starting to put it together a little. In 20 starts that year, in just 27 minutes per game, he put up a solid 8 & 7 and a very solid 1.7 blocks. He's skinny and somewhat awkward, but I think he has a good skill level--and he is a legit seven footer after all. I hope he can get completely healthy and start showing us what he can do by the second half of this season. But there might be a problem with a crowded Seattle front court--in addition to Nick Collison and fellow first-round-pick seven-footers Saer Sene and Johan Petro, there's new addition Kurt Thomas.

Kelenna Azuibuike/Marco Belinelli, Golden State Warriors

Who knows what guys are going to get minutes in Don Nelson's manic system, but I'm telling you, these two guys can really play. Azuibuike tore up the D-League and then performed well for the Warriors last year when they called him up, giving the team 7 points a game in 16 minutes per over 41 games. He's got great size for a shooting guard at 6'5 220, he's a big time athlete, and has solid skills--he can shoot, handle, and defend. The Warriors are absolutely loaded with swing players, including Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, and Al Harrington, but I predict Azuibuike ends up getting minutes and producing for this team.

In fact, it's because of Azuibuike that I'm slightly cooler on Belinelli, a 21-year-old 6'5 shooting guard out of Italy--than many other NBA types. Don't get me wrong, I love his game, I just don't know if he'll be able to break into the crowded rotation for 20 minutes a game. But it's Don Nelson, so who the hell knows, maybe Belinelli will be starting and getting 33 minutes by the end of the year. What Belinelli has going for him in the Don Nelson system is that he can really pull. He has one of the quickest releases in the league, and crazy range. Belinelli may or may not produce this year, but mark it down, he will down the line.

Al Thornton, Los Angeles Clippers

Of all the rookies in this draft class, I think Thornton is the most likely to produce this year except for Kevin Durant and Al Horford. Thornton has been fantastic in preseason as an athletic and energetic combo forward, and Elton Brand's injury opens the door to major PT. Thornton also has a smooth stroke, he can definitely put the ball in the basket.

Jordan Farmar, Los Angeles Lakers

What kind of blogger would I be if I didn't have irrational exuberance over my home team? Seriously, I love what I've seen of Farmar this preseason, I think he's made a major jump forward. I thought his problems last year--streaky shooting, too many turnovers--were relatively easy to fix, and it looks like he's greatly improved in those areas. Farmar has good size and outstanding athleticism (he has like a 42" vertical leap), he can penetrate and pass, and can potentially be a great defender. It's just a question now of playing smart and under control, and knocking down the many wide open shots a PG gets in the Laker triangle offense with Kobe Bryant commanding the attention he does.