PORTLAND IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT

So I really don't think the Lakers are going to trade Kobe, period, no matter how much he complains. Even with his opt-out after 2009, they still hold quite a few cards. He can opt-out all he wants, but unless he finds a team with $20M+ in cap space, he'll have to work out a sign-and-trade with the Lakers. And what if the Lakers just say 'no', then what? He either slinks back to the Lakers or he gives up $10 million a year to leave--is that the Kobe Bryant you know?

So who has $20M in cap space *and* is a realistic contender? Nobody--except maybe one team, if they play their cards right and get a little lucky.

Portland will have Oden, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge all still on their (absurd) rookie contracts, getting paid well below what their real value is. This gives them the ideal situation of possibly having a ton of cap room *and* having enough surrounding talent to be attractive to Kobe. They can make a run at Kobe (or Wade or Lebron or Carmelo or anyone else who's unhappy with their situation) and then re-sign their young guys for anything up to the max with their Bird rights.

If Oden's as good as I think he's going to be, and if Roy-Aldridge build on their excellent rookie seasons, Kobe-Roy-Aldridge-Oden is an easy championship contender. Especially with Duncan and Nash likely winding down their careers right around then.

The only problem is that the Blazers have two terrible contracts. Zach Randolph is a fine player, but he's not close to a max money guy. He makes $16M in 2009/2010 and $17M in 2010/2011. It'll be tough to get rid of him, but not impossible. He's probably the best low post scorer in the NBA in a league where even most of the championship contenders desperately need post scoring.

Then there's Darius Miles. Ugh. He doesn't make outrageous money--$9M a year in 08/09 and 09/10--but it's outrageous relative to his value, which is pretty close to zero. But they just might be able to ditch him in the summer of 2009 when he only has 1 year left on his deal, especially if he can manage to come back healthy and show some of the athleticism he used to have. I mean, if you're young, big and athletic, somebody will take a chance on you. I mean, there are teams that still want Kwame fucking *Brown*.

Even if they can't ditch these guys, they're still perfectly positioned to make a 2009 deal for Kobe or another superstar--good young talent (I haven't even mentioned Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack or the highly promising Sergio Rodriguez) and some high-salary guys with quickly expiring contracts (which you need in order to make the money work).

Bottom line, Portland's in damn good shape. There's no luck in all of sports like the luck of getting the #1 pick when a true franchise center is available.