ODEN V. DURANT

First a little background. I started out a Greg Oden guy, on the grounds that a great center is always more valuable than a great forward. But when Kevin Durant lit the college basketball world on fire and Oden struggled a bit coming back from injury, I switched over to the Durant bandwagon--he just looked like the closest thing you'll ever find to a can't-miss superstar.

But now all the games have been played, all the data is in, we've seen everything we're going to see until these guys suit up for the Grizzlies and Celtics next fall...and my final verdict? I've come full circle; I'd take Oden #1.

It's nothing Durant did or didn't do, I still think there's a 100% chance he'll be a superstar in the NBA. He's an extremely athletic 6'10 guy with long arms who can handle the ball, shoot like Dirk Nowitzki, rebound in traffic, and defend a variety of positions. He's better at this stage than Carmelo Anthony was in 2003.

But Oden really showed me something in the tournament--and that something was "explosive athleticism". Durant's a great athlete; Oden's a FREAK. Honestly, the only person I can think of in the last 20 years of college basketball who was anything like Oden is the young Shaq, someone with the size of a legit NBA center with that crazy combination of strength, quickness and hops.

Oden was a man among boys out there last night (admittedly aided by the biggest case of "make-up" officiating in the history of sports; the officials were clearly told to lay off Oden to make up for the rook job he got in the semfinals. He did anything he wanted all game long.) And this wasn't a bunch of goofy white guys and undersized PFs he was dominating, it was two lottery-pick-level legit NBA big men in Al Horford and Joakim Noah, and another off the bench that's a borderline NBA guy in Chris Richard. When Oden got the ball within 3 feet of the basket, it was a dunk, period. The only other guy who could do that in recent memory was Shaq. And it wasn't just the power dunking, Oden absolutely dominated the paint on D. He *erased* Noah, Horford had *nothing* against Oden in the post (but to his credit, found a way to score by hitting foul line jumpers and taking his man off the dribble on the wing). If Brewer, Green and Humphrey aren't hot from the perimeter, we'd likely be talking about how Oden singlehandedly won the game right now.

Sometimes you see someone in college sports, and they're so much bigger, so much stronger, so much faster, just so much more athletic than everyone else, there's no way they won't succeed at the next level. Shaq was one of those guys. Reggie Bush was one of those guys. Greg Oden is one of those guys.

That dunk attempt he had in the Georgetown game, where he was coming down on the fast break, got the ball at the free throw line, and just *exloded* over a guy to the rim...my god. He didn't get the dunk because of the dude in the lane blocking his path, but it was unreal athleticism. I was just sitting there thinking, there's only one big man in the NBA who could've done that, and that's Amare--and Greg Oden is *way* bigger than Amare. He's got a legit center's body with Amare's athleticism, that's one hell of a combination to start with.

And it's not like he's this raw project, like he's without skills. True, his all-around game needs a lot of improvement before he reaches the Ewing/Hakeem/Shaq level of superstardom, but he has a lot to work with already. His footwork has improved in leaps and bounds throughout the season, he has a variety of reliable post moves, and a nice little touch around the rim. In the G-Town game, he had a beautiful hook and a Duncanesque shot off the glass from 7 feet. He's got outstanding hands, he'll be a 12-board guy right off the bat, and he's the greatest defensive force to come out of college since Tim Duncan.

Like I said, I still think there's pretty close to a 100% chance Kevin Durant ends up being a superstar in the NBA. But I now think the same of Oden. He's just too good. He's too big, too athletic, too quick, and just too damned talented to miss. He supposedly has a real good head on his shoulders too--he's just the whole package.

So it comes back to my original question, would you rather have a superstar center or a superstar combo forward? I'm not saying it's a no-brainer, there are obviously shades of gray all over the place here. Who would you rather have, Larry Bird or Patrick Ewing? Yes, Durant probably won't be the next Bird, but Oden probably won't be the next Ewing either; those were 2 of the greatest players of all time. But sometimes a truly elite non-center is more valuable than a truly elite center.

But on the other hand, if you look at the top 25 or 50 players of all time, I think you'll find that centers are highly disproportionately represented. It's a big man's game, and always will be. If you have to gamble, if you have to go one way or the other, then I think history suggests it makes sense to go with the superstar center.

Now what'll be interesting is if Memphis gets the first pick. They already have an elite center in Gasol--but he's a little on the soft side. Do you take Oden and make Gasol a 4? I don't know if that'll work, Gasol's offensive game is largely old school low post. But if you put *Durant* with Gasol, FUCK, you really have something there. How the hell do you match up with those two guys?! They seem like a perfect complement. But then they might take Oden and move Gasol to Chicago (after the Bulls lose badly in the second round and finally figure out they should have made the move for Gasol long ago).

Now let's say it's the Celtics. Do you take Oden and move Al Jefferson to PF? I think you do. It reduces Jefferson's value a bit, since he's an around-the-basket kind of guy too, but FUCK, you really have something there: that's one hell of a defensive wall to throw at teams, plus you'll just completely dominate the glass. Twin towers for the new century.