DIRK FOR MVP

The MVP Race

With Lebron sleepwalking through half the season, Wade getting injured, and the Lakers going into a complete tailspin, the MVP has become a two-man race between Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash. It's close. It's very close. But I think the nod has to go to Dirk here.

Phoenix is having an amazing season, but Dallas is doing something historic. This could be a 70 win team, for crying out loud. After an 0-4 start, they're an astonishing 52-6--that's just completely insane. Let's put this into perspective. There are currently 6 teams with a winning road record, which tells you how tough it is to consistently win on the road in the NBA. Well, Dallas' 22-7 road record is better than the home record of 27 of the other 29 teams in the league. Only Phoenix and Utah have a better record at home than Dallas does on the road--and neither of them are even close to Dallas's home record of 30-3. What Dallas is doing is even more impressive when you consider that 2/3rds of their games come against their own far superior conference (the West's winning percentage vs. the East is .570, a gigantic disparity--only 8 teams in the league have a .570+ winning percentage).

This isn't to slight what Phoenix has accomplished. Amazingly they're right there with Dallas, just 3.5 games behind. If you take out the 2 wins and 4 losses they ran up when Steve Nash was hurt, they've been at a pace that would put them at 68 wins for the year--which would make them one of the greatest 2nd best teams in league history.

But even taking out the Nash-less games, they're still 47-10, behind Dallas' 52-10 (and it's not like Dallas has been injury-free, they've lost #2 guy Josh Howard for 10 games, as well as Jerry Stackhouse, Devean George and Austin Croshere for 10+ games each). Bottom line: as good as Phoenix has been, Dallas has been better.

Now that's not the end-all of the MVP argument, of course, but "best player on the best team" is always a good place to start. Where I think Dirk really earns the nod is that, in my opinion, his supporting cast is worse than Nash's. This is pretty difficult, it's tough to match up guy-for-guy in a team sport like basketball--but I'm going to anyway.

Shawn Marion and Josh Howard are pretty much a wash, maybe Marion gets a slight nod. Jason Terry and Devin Harris get the slight nod over Raja Bell and the rapidly-arriving Leandro Barbosa (more on him later). The Mavs' scrubs are definitely much better than Phoenix's, the Mavs are a far deeper team with Stackhouse, George, Croshere and defensive specialists Greg Buckner and Desagana Diop vs. James Jones, Kurt Thomas, and a bunch of guys who don't even play (Jalen Rose, Jumaine Jones, Marcus Banks). So maybe Dallas is a bit ahead so far. But we have one comparison left, the starting centers: Amare vs. Erick Dampier. Um, yeah. I think that one goes to Phoenix by a hair. It's really that simple, their supporting casts are pretty similar, with the exception that Nash has one more top 15 player on his roster than Dirk does. But Dirk's team is better.

I know, I know, it's really not that simple. Basketball is a team game, and Dallas more than anyone really plays like a team--it's hard especially to compare defensive-minded guys to offensive-minded. But can you at least give me that the surrounding talent on the two teams is close enough that Dallas' superior record is a solid point in Dirk's favor? Yeah, I thought so bitch.

No, Dirk doesn't make his teammates better the way Steve Nash does--all he does is make his team better, and that's what counts. Michael Jordan, contrary to popular myth that makes him the greatest there ever was in every aspect of basketball, wasn't a great distributor. Sure he got a lot of assists, but is it so hard to kick out to a wide open John Paxson when you're being triple teamed? What Jordan had--and what Kobe doesn't--is excellent *judgement*. His court vision was nothing special, but he had outstanding discretion as to when to force a shot and when to give the ball up to a teammate. So he made his teammates better in the way all great players make their teammates better--by being fucking awesome and taking the other team's focus away from them. But he absolutely did not make his teammates better the way a Nash or Magic does/did. All he did was make his *team* really, really, really good--and last time I checked, that's what they give you trophies for.

The Comers

As typically starts happening this time of year, a handful of young players are starting to bust out.

First let's start with Leandro Barbosa, one of the 10 most difficult players to guard in the NBA. In 11 games since they all-star break, Barbosa is averaging 20.6 ppg on .524 shooting. But what's most impressive is that he's shooting .556 from three on 6.6 attempts per game, bringing his season 3PT FG% to .439. This is after last year's .444. When you're literally one of the fastest players in league history, a great finisher at the rim, *and* a money 3-point shooter, that makes you a matchup nightmare. Just this week I watched him absolutely tear apart one of the best defensive teams in the league in Houston, going for 32 on 12-18 shooting. In the first part of the game, he was blowing by people to the basket. When they played for the drive, he sank 5 of 6 threes. By the second half, they were doubling Barbosa every time he got the ball--when you're going against a team with Amare, Nash and Marion and you're forced to double *someone else*, you're in serious trouble.

Another guy on fire is Andre Iguodala. He's been coming on ever since Iverson's departure, but the last couple weeks have really been strong for him--in the 11 games since the break, Iguodala is averaging 21/6/6, with 2.5 steals and a .475 FG%. In 6 games in March, he's bumped his PPG up to 24.5. This guy's a really good all-around player, with his skill beginning to match his high-end athleticism. The only problem is that he's played so well, he's taking Philly out of the Durant/Oden sweepstakes. The 76ers are now 9 games ahead of Memphis and 6.5 ahead of Boston (with Milwaukee and Charlotte also a couple games behind the Sixers).

Speaking of Boston, Al Jefferson has been huge for them lately. Post-break, he's putting up a 20 & 13 spot with a steal and almost 2 blocks per game, along with a .553 FG%. Jefferson just turned 22 in January--this dude's a beast. If Boston manages to get into that bottom 2 (again, difficult with Jefferson playing so well), they'll be in fantastic shape for the future.

A couple of rookies are giving Portland some hope as well--Brandon Roy is averaging 18/4/6 post-break and is shooting over .500 from both the floor and from 3, and LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 14 & 7 with 2 blocks. Looks like two very nice draft picks for them, along with longer-term prospect Sergio Rodriguez who's shown flashes of brilliance.

Finally, moving from up-and-comers to not-yet-as-decrepit-as-you-might-have-thought, I have to give props to Shaq. What he's doing for Miami in the wake of Wade's injury is nothing short of amazing. I predicted here that they'd be a total disaster, but I didn't count on Shaq channeling his 2001 self. In 11 post-break games, he's averaging 20/10/3 on .630 shooting in just 29 minutes per game. Miami is 8-3 in those games, and is currently on a 7 game winning streak that's included wins against Eastern Conference leaders Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Washington (twice), as well as Western powerhouse Utah. Shaq has pretty much overpowered everyone in his path--when he's in the game, the other team's defensive gameplan just has to change completely. If you don't double him, he'll score, it's that simple. With his excellent post passing, that means everyone on the team is getting wide open looks all game. In other words, he's making the team better the same way Michael Jordan made his teams better. I still don't think Miami can make it to the Finals without Wade--no way does Shaq not wear down over a couple long series--but at least Shaq's allowed them to get in good position while Wade (hopefully!) recovers.