BACK FROM VACATION

Remember, you heard this here first:

THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS ARE GOING TO WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP.

In 2009.

Seriously, this team probably doesn't have the consistency and defensive intensity to run with the big dogs in a 7-game playoff series this season, but man, the future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

The Lakers are coming off a stirring victory over the red-hot Dallas Mavericks despite injuries to Robin-to-Kobe's-Batman Lamar Odom and starting center Kwame Brown--*and* despite being generally ROOKED by the officials (the last no-call when Smush Parker got Jason Terry's hand on the blocked shot being a very notable exception). I swear to god, if you get a reputation as a "defensive team", the refs take it as a license to let anything short of sexual penetration go. In a just universe, Devin Harris fouls out of every single game in about 7 minutes.

I think you have to give some mad props to Mitch Kupchak here, the GM of the Lakers. He's taken a hailstorm of shit for dismantling the championship group (even though he had Kobe pointing a gun to his head & forcing his hand on Shaq), but he's done as good a job rebuilding while capped out as you can possibly expect.

Sure, he got lucky as hell on Andrew Bynum, a rapidly arriving teenage center, but Kupchak was the one who had the balls to draft him while there were other, more established players still on the board. He'd have taken all the criticism if Bynum had flopped--which probably would've cost Kupchak his job--so he deserves all the praise now for finding that oh-so-rare potential franchise center. Bynum has a lot of work left to do (especially in terms of smart play & consistency), but he's got everything you want in a young big man--good footwork, outstanding hands, soft touch, shotblocking ability, and massive, massive size. By 2008-2009, I'm predicting he'll be holding court in the middle for a championship-caliber team and putting up 16 & 10 with a couple blocks a night...all at the age of 21.

(ASIDE: Call me crazy if you must, but here goes: there's not a chance in hell I'd trade Bynum for Greg Oden. No way. First of all, Bynum's only like three months older and, if they played, would abuse Oden like Oden's going to abuse Michigan's Courtney "The Giant Pussy" Sims (hey, maybe there are more creative nicknames, but none more accurate). Bynum would get 20 & 10 and block at least 5 of Oden's shots. Period. Now Oden has *loads* of potential, no doubt, but Bynum's just as big, just as athletic, and is already doing it on the NBA level. I think the chances of Oden being a flop are extremely small, but Bynum's chances are probably even less--because I've already seen he can really play at this level. Big Andrew's tearing apart DPOTY candidate Marcus Camby while Oden's struggling against the spastic frontline of the University of Illinois.)

Then you have the new-found *depth* on this team. You Pistons fans know what it's like to work with a very thin bench, and the Lakers have had one for years. It hurt them in the tail end of their championship run (I still shudder when I think about the phrase "and it looks like Samaki Walker is coming in for Shaq"), and it absolutely killed them in the last of the Shaq years and the aftermath. Now all of a sudden, Kupchak has added quality players in Vladimir Radmanovic, Maurice Evans (I don't know how the Pistons let this guy go away for the chump change he makes), Jordan Farmar (another great draft pick who I project to be starting in 2 years), and Ronny Turiaf. Add in Bynum, the suddenly decent Sasha Vujacic and lights-out shooter Brian Cook, and this is a team that goes 12 deep.

Again, I don't think they're quite ready yet--but nobody, and I mean *nobody*, is going to want a piece of this team in the playoffs--but if they can keep the core group of players together, I think they can make a run in 2008-2010. Dallas and Utah are in good shape to stay among the elites, but the Spurs can only go as far as an increasingly decrepit Tim Duncan can take them, and Nash is coming up on his 33rd birthday in February. They have a lot of young talent, but it remains to be seen whether their whole deal can work without its ringleader.

Meanwhile the Lakers in the spring of 2009 will be lining up with a 30-year-old Kobe, a 29-year-old Odom, Bynum and Farmar, and some combination of Radmanovic, Walton (he'll get a lot of interest around the league, but I don't see the Lakers letting him get away), Evans and Turiaf, and then a couple spare parts out of the Kwame/Smush/Vujacic/Cook group. You can't keep everyone, but they can afford to lose a couple of the lesser guys. If Bynum develops like I think he'll develop, that's a formidable group. Kudos to Mitch Kupchak on a fine rebuilding job.

Now on to non-Laker items...

Minnesota is surprsingly showing signs of life, as Randy Foye is finally getting some minutes; he's averaging 12 per game in just 23 minutes over his last 13 games, and shooting an excellent .466 from the floor. I told you this guy can play, Minnesota was nuts to chain him to the bench as long as they did. Minnesota has beaten San Antonio and Chicago in the last week or so, but blown games to Toronto and New Jersey. Weird team. They're still nothing special and have zero chance to get beyond the first round of the playoffs--if they even make it in--but their mini-resurgence (and Foye's improvement) may impact whether Garnett gets moved or not.

Here's my take on Iverson in Denver--I think it's going to work. I mean, not that they'll win a championship, I just don't think they're good enough to do that. But I think they'll be a much better team with Iverson than with Miller. I've watched several of their games since the trade, and I've been struck by several things. The first is the general awesomeness of Allen Iverson; he's still clearly one of the very best players in the league. Another is that I'm confident Iverson is capable of playing (and willing to play) a more traditional PG role. I mean, don't get me wrong, he'll still be scoring 20+ per night, but he's been really doing a great job with a facilitator role since he got to Denver, and those passes that are currently going to Yakhouba Diawara and Linas Kleiza will work out a lot better when they're going to Melo and JR Smith. I could be wrong, but I don't see AI having a problem deferring to Carmelo. There are still plenty of shots to go around, and Iverson will get his points one way or another. I think they'll be a really fun--and really *good*--team when everyone gets back, but unfortunately for them, the 5 best teams in basketball are in the Western Conference (Mavs, Suns, Spurs, Jazz, Lakers), so I don't think they can do much beyond the first round. But man, who's going to want to play Melo-AI for 7 games? What if it's Phoenix-Denver in the first round? It'll be like 1983 all over again, every game will be 130-125.

Hot players over the last month:

I said earlier that Gilbert Arenas was the greatest player in NBA history who wasn't one of the 10 best players in the league. I take it back--he's clearly one of the 10 best players in the league right now, and a legit MVP candidate. In the last month, he's averaging 35 points per game on .470+ shooting (including almost 40% on 8+ three attempts per game), and has led Washington to within 1 game of Southeast-divison-leading Orlando. They're coming off a bad loss to rapidly improving Toronto (getting Chris Bosh back will do that for you), but have beaten Phoenix and Orlando in recent weeks. Joining Arenas in his strong play have been Antawn Jamison (22 & 10 over the last month) and especially Caron Butler (25/8/5 on .544 shooting in a month-long coming out party). The Wizards still play no defense whatsoever, but the gunslinger trio might be enough to make them a contender in the crap-ass East.

How about Mike Miller? Getting back Pau Gasol--and losing coach Mike Fratello and his plodding, defensive-minded ways--has paid huge dividends for Miller, who's averaging 20/7/5 over the last month with a FG% over .500. He's also making 3.5 threes per game on well over 40% shooting.

Another guy coming on strong is Mo Williams, one of the catalysts along with Michael Redd of the recent Milwaukee run--they had won 7 of 8 to get over .500, but dropped back to back games against conference heavyweights Cleveland and Washington. Still, Williams is averaging 21/6/7 in the last month with 1.7 threes per, and shooting over .500 from the floor.

Andre Iguodala is profiting from Iverson's departure and the arrival of a true PG in Andre Miller, breaking out with 20/5/5 with a couple of steals over the last month, with a solid .482 FG%.

And lastly and leastly, a couple of the Celtics' kids are in the process of breaking out. Al Jefferson, finally getting heavy minutes when everyone knew he was the best big man they had, is averaging 16 & 11 with almost 2 blocks per in 17 games as a starter, and Tony Allen, an athletic 6'4 shooting guard out of Oklahoma State, is averaging 17/6/3 with over 2 steals per game the last month, and shooting .534 from the floor during that period. Jefferson's and Allen's surge isn't translating into wins for the hapless Celtics, but hey, when you suck, there's nothing better than finding out a couple of your young guys may be real players. I've also seen some intriguing things from the youngest of their young guys, 6'8 forward Gerald Green. He's very up and down, as you might imagine, but he just finished up a December where he averaged a solid 9.6 ppg in 20 minutes of play, shot .469 from the floor and a sparkling .447 from three on over 3 attempts per game. Not too shabby.