MIHMPOSSIBLE DREAM

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

WEEK ONE IN REVIEW

SURPRISES: GOOD

UTAH

Well, Utah is obviously the big shocker of the early season, jumping out to a 4-0 start with quality wins against Houston, at Phoenix and Detroit. Even more surprising, they scored over 100 in each of the 4 games. Carlos Boozer is leading the way averaging 20 & 14, continuing his strong play from the end of last season. Mehmet Okur is right where he was last year with 18 & 9, giving the Jazz one of the few solid PF/C combos in the league. The other key to the team's offensive success is the continuing development of Deron Williams. He came on strong at the end of last year, and has gotten off to a solid start this season with 13 & 7 against only 2.3 turnovers. However his three-point stroke seems to have disappeared; after shooting a fantastic .416 from three as a rookie, he's pulled a doughnut so far this season, going 0-7 in the first four games. I'm confident he'll get it going, he was just lights out in the last couple months of 2006.

Andrei Kirilenko is healthy so far, but isn't really getting into the flow of the offense of the new look Jazz with just 9 points per game. But he's rebounding and playing his usual killer defense--I think the offense will come, he's just too skilled of a player not to score in double figures. Another guy playing solid defense is second year man CJ Miles, a 19-year-old who made the jump straight from high school and was drafted in the second round in 2005. Miles won the starting SG job over Matt Harpring, Derek Fisher, and rookie first rounder Ronnie Brewer, and is playing well in limited minutes. He can put the ball in the basket too, he's already had a 17 point game and a 12 pointer. There aren't enough shots on this team for him to score in double figures consistently, but he's someone to keep an eye on down the road.

NEW ORLEANS/PHILADELPHIA

There are only two other undefeated teams in a league suddenly rife with parity, the Hornets and 76ers. Most of their wins have come against crappy or injury-depleted teams, but the 76ers did impressively take down the high-flying Orlando Magic on the road. I don't think either team is destined for greatness this year, but if I had to pick one, I'd take the Hornets. Chris Paul is continuing on his steady path to superstardom, averaging 16 points, 4 boards and *11* assists, against only 2.7 turnovers. He's also getting 2 swipes a game and has raised his FG% more than 4 points over last year with .474. The bad news is that he's 0-5 from three, and one game I watched where he missed 2 or 3, he wasn't even close. I've read that he put a ton of time in on his jumpshot this summer--I think it's showing up in the midrange game, hopefully the deep ball will follow in the next year or two, as appears to be happening with D-Wade. Peja Stojakovic started out ice cold in the first two games, but went 5-8 in game three, hopefully breaking out of his mini-slump. Tyson Chandler is controlling the boards as expected, but inexplicably hasn't blocked a shot yet.

As for Philly, Allen Iverson has come out of the gate swinging, averaging a ridiculous 34 & 10 for the opening week, shooting .493 from the floor and .546 from three--and he's only the second hottest shooter on the team. Kyle Korver is simply scorching, hitting 9 of his first 11 threes on the season. Philly as a whole is shooting .526 from three. Obviously they can't keep that up, and I expect the 76ers to be back to their usual .500 selves when they cool off.

THE LAKERS' SUPPORTING CAST

With Kobe, Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown out I expected the worst, but the strong play of Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, Andrew Bynum and Ronny Turiaf has them out to a solid 3-1 start. Odom has been out of his mind with 24/8/6, shooting .536 from the floor and .667 from three, and Luke Walton is putting in a solid all-around game as well with 14/5/3. Turiaf has absolutely dominated at times, disappeared at others, but he's still averaging 14 & 6 over the last three and playing with an energy that's been contagious. And teenager Andrew Bynum announced his presence in the NBA this week, coming out with a very solid 11 & 6 with 1 block per in just 19 minutes per game, providing a real big-man presence for the Lakers. Like with Turiaf, the consistency isn't there yet, he disappears at times, but he's had brilliant stretches where he just oozes potential. I love this kid. I absolutely love him. Legit 7'0 280 pound, athletic, energetic centers don't grow on trees, and I think the Lakers may have found themselves one.

PLAYERS

Joe Johnson, one of my favorite players in the league, is off to a red hot start, averaging 29/3/5 with 2.7 threes per game in Atlanta's surprising 2-1 start.

Rashard Lewis appears to be in full contract-drive mode, popping for 26 & 7 with *4* threes per game in Seattle's first three.

Props to the blogmaster, Zach Randolph is out of the gate in fine fashion, looking slim (well, *slimmer*) and active, and averaging 26 & 10 in Portland's first four, along with 90%+ free throw shooting and a block and a steal per game. Talent is not a problem for this guy; when he's healthy and his head's on straight, he can score and board with almost anyone in the league.

After reading a bunch of stuff this summer saying Wally Sczerbiak wouldn't be anywhere near 100% for the early part of the season, he looks to me to be around 130%, with 24 a game on .535 shooting.

I like Kevin Martin's game a lot, and I'm glad to see him off to a great start to the season--22 a game on .518 shooting. The key for the Kings this year is this: when it comes to shooting the ball, more Martin, less Artest.

How about Hakim Warrick? After doing nothing as a rookie, Warrick took advantage of Gasol's absence to put up 19 & 8 through Memphis' first three games.

Charlie Villanueva is also out to a strong start in his second season, averaging 19/11/2.5, making a three a game, and shooting over 50% from the floor.

Yet another player has shown me up after I badmouthed him here, Luke Ridnour springing for 19 & 7 with 1.7 threes per and great percentages. Seattle doesn't play any defense, but their O is firing on all cylinders right now.

Eddy Curry is playing very well, averaging 18 & 8 and managing to play 37 minutes a game without suffering a myocardial infarction.

After missing virtually all of his rookie year due to injury, Sean May has come out strong with 11 & 8 with 2 blocks per.

SUPRISES: BAD

DALLAS/PHOENIX

What the hell is wrong with the Mavericks?! 0-3 out of the gate with two losses at home (including to a resurgent--but still not that great--Golden State team), and an absolute drubbing by a Houston team who's won only that one game. The problem is defense--the Mavs are giving up 104 points per game, 11 more than the 93 a game they gave up in 2005-2006. They've lost solid defenders Adrian Griffin and Marquis Daniels, but that doesn't explain 11 PPG. I gotta think this is just a short-term blip, a team coming out a little less hungry than they need to be, and getting a sharply delivered kick-to-the-groin wakeup call. They're too talented, too deep, and too well-coached not to be a 55+ win team. They'll be back.

The other Western Conference finalist is out to a surprising 1-3 start. However, they've had a rough opening schedule, playing at the Lakers and Clippers (both of whom present tough matchups because of their size), home against the Clippers (why do they schedule the same matchup twice in the opening week?), and home against Utah, another big, physical team. They've had some problems integrating Amare, as expected. I've watched all 3 of their games against the LA teams, and while Stoudemire has definitely shown encouraging flashes of the old Amare, I feel like they're working to get him the ball a lot and he's just not doing much with it--he's averaging just 7 & 3 in 16 minutes per game.

Marion and Nash have been their usual brilliant selves, and Barbosa is really coming on, averaging 19/5/5, but the rest of the team has been off. Boris Diaw is the forgotten man, averaging just 10/4/2 in 26 minutes. In the three games I watched, I don't think they ran the pick-and-roll (his bread & butter) with him more than 5 times combined. Last year that was a staple play for the Suns. Still, offense isn't the problem for them, they're scoring 107.5 per game, just a bit down from the 108 per they scored last year. But they're giving up 110 a game, the worst in the league and 7 PPG worse than last year. And look, I love Jalen Rose, he's my favorite of the Fab Fivers--but he ain't gonna help on D, if you know what I mean. Again, I'm not *too* concerned here, they're a talented team with a great coach, they'll pull it together. But everyone has their doubts whether a team this offense-oriented can win a championship, and they're doing a lot right now to fan those flames. They need Amare to return to being a force on both ends, period.

MIAMI/DETROIT

Miami and Detroit make up the other half of the quartet of underwhelming Conference Finals participants, both getting out to lousy starts on the season. Miami has just been awful offensively, scoring 85 a game. Dwyane Wade has been the one decent player on the team, but he's only scoring 21 a game, down 6 points from last season. He's taking only 5.3 FTs per game, down from almost 11 in 2005-2006. On the plus side, he's shooting over 50% from the floor and is making a three per game. Shaq's already hurt, which really doesn't bode well, although it could end up being just a bruised knee which would get him back on the court soon. Also Jason Williams is expected to begin practicing soon--they desperately need him back to give the offense a shot in the arm.

As for Detroit, they've been up and down. They stunk in an opening loss to Milwaukee, looked decent in beating up on a couple weak sisters (Boston and a Pau-less Memphis), and then played Utah tough on the road. I'm not sure what to make of this team at this point. The problem so far has been defense--they're actually scoring a couple points more per game than last year, but giving up 5 more on defense. Losing Ben Wallace has to change the complexion of this team; they still have talent, but now it's more of a mix between O & D, they aren't going to be just a lockdown defensive team anymore. The transition started last year, and now it's been accelerated with Mohammed taking over for Big Ben. I think they're still figuring that out, but I expect Flip Saunders and a very veteran team will get it straightened out sooner rather than later and for the Pistons to stay among the league's elite.

As for individual players, Rip Hamilton has been his usual solid self, but his running mate Chauncey Billups has just been ice cold to start the season, shooting .311 from the floor and 2-17 from three. He'll get it back, he's been around .400 from three the last five years. And he's been his usual outstanding self in the ballhandling department racking up 33 assists to just 5 turnovers. Rasheed shook off a goose egg in the opener to post three straight strong games, averaging 19 & 11 with 2 blocks per. The goods news with this team is that Nazr Mohammed is off to a solid start, averaging 11 & 9 with 1.8 blocks per through the first four. He's not Ben Wallace, but if he can control the boards, block a couple shots, and give them double figure scoring, he's giving them exactly what the need from him. The bench is still thin, but Flip Murray, Carlos Delfino and Jason Maxiell have all had solid stretches. The minutes are there for the taking with Maxiell, especially with Antonio McDyess out to a horrible start. I expect Dice to bounce back just fine, but they're still awfully thin up front.

THE ROOKIE CLASS

Brandon Roy looks like a serious player, and I think Thabo Sefolosha is going to be the steal of the draft, but it looks like it might be a very thin class after that. I know, I know, give it time, we all thought Andrew Bogut, Ray Felton and Deron Williams were busts-in-the-making at this point last year and look what happened. And now this year you have Bynum, Warrick and Scott May all playing well too. But in the early going, only Adam Morrison, Roy, Rudy Gay and Craig Smith are scoring in double figures (Smith impressively doing it in only 16 minutes per game) -- and Adam Morrison has shown little besides the ability to shoot and Rudy Gay is shooting .333 from the floor.

Sefolosha has been brilliant so far, forcing his way into one of the deepest rotations in the league to the tune of 18 minutes a game and averaging 8/3/2 and shooting .520 from the floor. I also like what Rajon Rondo has done in limited PT, averaging 6/4/3 in 23 minutes with a solid .438 from the floor.

This class has potential, it's going to be a while before many of these guys even get a chance--Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, Randy Foye, LaMarcus Aldridge, et al, but it's been a slow start for the class as a whole.

PLAYERS

Look, Ron Artest is a valuable player and everything, but he just has to use some goddamned common sense. It's one thing for Kobe or T-Mac to force a bunch of stupid shots--they can occasionally make them. But Artest is putting up 17.5 shots per game and shooting .314 from the floor. He's always put up a lot of bad shots and had a poor FG%, but he's just been astonishingly shitty this year. No amount of great defense in the world can make up for tossing up that many bricks a game, especially when you play for a team that has plenty of other scorers. That said, he really is playing some brilliant D, with 18 steals and 6 blocks already in just 4 games. Just, you know--get smarter, Ron. I'll start holding my breath.......now!

Baron Davis looks very healthy, and is in a perfect situation for him with Don Nelson at the helm, but he's off to a terrible start with 16 & 7 per game, and shooting an atrocious .339 from the floor and .143 from three. Impressively, Golden State has still managed to split their first four, which included games at Utah and Dallas and home against the Lakers.

Tracy McGrady is also relatively healthy--and off to a crap-ass start for both the Rockets and my fantasy team. He's playing the distributor with 7 assists a game and only 2.3 turnovers, but 15.8 PPG on .340 shooting (including 1-8 from three) leaves a lot to be desired. Like with Davis, I expect him to turn it around in a hurry.

Continuing the trend of superstars not shooting the ball well to begin the season, Jason Richardson is averaging 14 a game on .346 shooting, Richard Jefferson is at 13.5/.333 and Stephon Marbury is at 12.5/.342. I'm sure JR and RJ will bounce back; Marbury...we'll see.

I expected big things from Jameer Nelson this year and he had a great opener with 21 points. Since then he's put up 14, 4 and 8 points, is averaging 4.8 turnovers per game and fewer than 3 assists, and has been completely outplayed by Carlos Arroyo, who's averaging 17 a game in the early going. There could easily be a lineup change in the works in Orlando.

Tim Thomas is playing a solid all-around game for the Clippers with 11/7/3 and good defense, but he's got to shoot the ball better than .364 from the floor and especially .318 from three. Everybody's playing zone on the Clippers right now and they need Thomas and Mobley to make 'em pay for it.

6 Comments:

At 5:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Utah is for real, that's a nice front court with kirilenko boozer and okur. Plus they have alot of good role player guards: fisher harpring giricek brewer, all those guys can play. Never heard of that miles guy, I couldn't believe he's startiong.

Another team looking good is portland. They only won 20 games last year and now they 2-2 and that's without lafrentz and darius miles. Not bad, things are looking up there finally.

 
At 5:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like Philadelphia is coming back to earth right on schedule, they're getting the shit kicked out of them by Indiana.

Chang, I wouldn't call Lafrentz and Miles the cavalry exactly.

 
At 7:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, no surprise with the Sixers. But Atlanta winning on the road in Cleveland, holy crap. Hawks are 3-1! They're Zaza-riffic.

Seriously, Pachulia is playing great. He was at 18 & 8 and then had 19 & 4 tonight. And he's only 22.

 
At 11:02 PM, Blogger Michael said...

You know you're a real NBA fan when you noticed the Hawks' start. Joe Johnson is apparently making the leap from "very good player" to "superstar." They also got a great game from Tyronne Lue tonight, possibly because signing Speedy Claxton gave him a kick in the ass. If Lue doesn't kill the team on the defensive side of the floor, he could be reasonably useful.

I can't wait for Marvin to get healthy, as he was the player I was most excited to see this year.

 
At 10:21 AM, Blogger jjwalker said...

I'm excited to see what Marvin Williams can do for this team too, he played well early in preseason before getting hurt.

Another guy on the Hawks I like is Josh Childress. He's a weird player, he has a great midrange game but doesn't really shoot the three, and he's really skinny but is somehow a great rebounder. He kinda reminds me of Rip Hamilton, not in his game, but in the sense that he's a square peg who needs to find just the right situation where a team allows him to do the things he can do and doesn't ask him to do the things he can't. Might be the Hawks, they're getting 30 good minutes a night out of him right now, but I think he can eventually be more than a 10 PPG role player.

 
At 10:05 PM, Blogger Michael said...

Childress can actually shoot the ball, despite a form that makes Bill Cartwright look like Byron Scott. He was around 50% on thress last year, albeit in a small sample size. He's a pretty good defender and what I like best about him is that he's terrific at moving without the ball. (If he was white, I'd call him "heady" or "gutty" at this point.) He also finishes absolutely everything around the basket because he's surprisingly strong. Marvin was the exact opposite last year. He got to the rim a lot, but had a very hard time finishing because of lack of strength.

The Hawks are 4-1 after tonight's win in Toronto. It is pointless to resist.

 

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