It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year

"Sports season" begins today with the NBA season tip-off.

This is the time of year when there's so much beauty in the sports world, I feel like I can't stand it, like my heart's going to cave in.

You have the beginning of basketball season and the stretch run of college and pro football all colliding into a jumble of orgasmic sports joy. Baseball and (real) golf are over, so they're not clogging up Sportscenter with their mundane "highlights"...if only hockey would go on strike again! But that's too much to ask. It's like asking for Michigan to have a great football team and a moderately competent basketball team. We had it once, we got greedy, we flew too close to the sun--now we're wallowing in the sea of mediocrity for eternity.

Anyway, I digress.

Before I get to my thoughts on championship contenders, a few items of note:

Jalen Rose got cut by the Knicks--he could end up being a key addition to a playoff team the way Michael Finley was for the Spurs. Rose can still score and shoot the three (18.5 PPG on 40% 3PT shooting just two years ago), and just as importantly can handle the ball and pass like a PG. That's a valuable guy to have on your bench, even if you're only going to be playing him 15 minutes a game. It seems like Miami is the early favorite, but I'm not sure that makes the most sense for Rose. They're a deep team, I'm not sure how many minutes Rose would get once Jason Williams comes back from injury. I'm sure Rose wants to win, but I'm also quite sure he wants to *play*. Other teams allegedly interested are Detroit, Denver, Minnesota nnd the Lakers. I personally think Detroit would be a great fit for him--winning team, his hometown city, and the Pistons are pretty thin off the bench (especially as they're unsure whether they're ever going to get consistent production from Carlos Delfino).

Side note: The Knicks are paying out almost $60,000,000 this year to players no longer on the team. That's more than what 12 teams are paying their entire active rosters this year, including expected playoff teams Detroit, Chicago, Orlando, Houston and the Clippers.

CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS

As I see it, seven teams have a shot at winning it all this year. I've ranked them here in reverse order of probability of taking home the championship (as opposed to expected regular season wins):

7. Cleveland

As they stood at the end of last season, they aren't nearly good enough to compete for the 2007 NBA championship. But you all know why they're included in this ranking: LBJ. Simply put, there's always the possibility that James just takes his game to an even higher level than it's already at, and that would make James and 4 Mo Taylors a contender. The Cavs, counting on this idea, did little in the offseason to improve. I do like the additions of Shannon Brown and Daniel Gibson, two athletic, productive guards who defend and handle the ball well. Both have played very well in preseason.

They may experience some internal improvement as well. Donyell Marshall had a horrendous season last year, but I expect him to get back to his usual productive self. If nothing else, the Cavs need him to regain his shooting stroke. The three prior years, he shot .379, .404 and .416 from three--last year it was down to .324.

Another candidate for improvement is Anderson Varejao. After averaging a modest 4.6 & 4.9 in just 16 minutes a game in the regular season, Varejao really started to break out in the playoffs, picking up 9 PPG in the Pistons series and showing some serious flashes of potential. He's only 24, and he's a hyperathletic and extremely active big man. He's probably a fouling machine at this point, but I expect his minutes to go way up backing up Gooden and Ilgauskas at the 4 and 5.

Still, short of Lebron taking it to ridiculous heights this year, I just don't think Cleveland has the supporting cast to hang with the true elites. I expect them to duplicate their 50 win season from last year and be a team that *nobody* wants to play in the playoffs (for fear of LBJ pulling an "'86 MJ vs. Boston" on them), but ultimately falling short.

6. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have amassed a ton of talent. They're deep, they're big, they're athletic, they're experienced. They go 10 deep, they're one of the few teams with a legit PF *and* C, they have wing slashers and wing scorers, and they have the two-headed PG monster of Livingston and Cassell. The last is why I don't think they can win the championship this year.

Here's the deal--the Clippers are kind of in a weird spot right now. Cassell is on the down side of his career, Livingston is on the up side, and it feels to me like the Clippers are going to spend the year trying to figure out which direction they should go: let Cassell run the show in the hopes of making a title run this season, or turning it over to Livingston and setting themselves up for contention in the next few years.

I think they're going to go the latter direction. They just don't have a lot of confidence in Cassell, as evidenced by him sitting during absolutely crucial stretches of the playoffs last year in favor of Livingston. Plus Livingston's ceiling is so ridiculously high, he's every bit as much the future of this organization as Brand and Kaman are. I'm looking for Livingston to start and get the majority of the minutes by the end of the year, and as highly as I think of him, I don't think he's *quite* ready to lead this team to a championship.

But they're certainly a legitimate contender. Brand is obviously one of the 5-10 best players in the game. He scores at will in the post, he's a deadly 10-15 foot jumpshooter, he owns the boards, and he's the best on-ball shotblocker in the game (as opposed to a help-defender shotblocker, like a Camby--which is damned valuable too, don't get me wrong). Kaman is one of the best young centers in the league and will most likely just keep getting better. I like the addition of Aaron Williams, a solid & skilled big man who can spell Brand & Kaman at the 4/5, and the Clippers also have high hopes for Paul Davis out of Michigan State. Corey Maggette is healthy, and when healthy is a productive scorer and solid defender. Mobley and Tim Thomas give them the shooters a big man-dominated team needs, and Quinton Ross looked like a young Bruce Bowen in the playoffs last year, locking up players ranging from Steve Nash to Tim Thomas.

But Livingston is the key here. He's a great on-ball defender, he passes like a young Magic, he rebounds, and he drives at will. His outside shooting is terrible, but his midrange game has improved quite a bit, and as Dwyane Wade shows, if you can get to the basket any time you want and also stick the 15 foot jumper, you don't need to hit the three. Like I said, I think he's a year or two away from stardom. But as long as he stays healthy, I think we'll see the genesis of that transition this year.

5. Phoenix

I know, it seems like everything is shaping up for them this year with Amare coming back. They're talented, they're athletic, they're deep, they have a great 1-2-3 superstar combo with Nash-Amare-Marion, they have like 7 guys who can shoot the three--so what's the problem?

Well, nothing really, you don't have to have a 'problem' to be only the 5th most likely team to win the championship, it just means that 4 other teams are better. I want Phoenix to win it all, it would be good for the kind of basketball we all like to watch. But I just don't see it happening this year, I think the four teams ahead of them are all a shade better (I mean in terms of running the playoff gauntlet; the Suns could easily end up with the best record in basketball).

If the Suns do have a problem, it's clearly Amare. They're being smart by letting him work himself into shape--he's supposedly going to come off the bench to start the season, and only play 15-20 minutes a night. Excellent idea. No sense messing the guy up in November when the real season doesn't start until May. The way the Lakers operated with Shaq during their championship years should be a good guide here--it's a lot more important that your stud player is 100% healthy and fresh when the playoffs roll around than even home court advantage is. Not to mention that the Suns might be so good even with Amare playing half-speed for a few months, they might not be sacrificing home court anyway.

I just love their team, I love the way they play. I love Nash--who doesn't?--but I also love Diaw and Marion and Barbosa and their gunners. They're just a fun team to watch and root for. Except Raja Bell, the biggest pussy flopper in the league since Karl Malone.

Anyway, they might have integration issues with Amare, but ultimately I don't think they can win a championship without him being prominently involved on both ends of the floor, so they better figure it out. And I think they know that--nobody will soon forget the way he utterly destroyed Tim Duncan (Tim fucking Duncan!) in the playoffs two years ago. Amare's offensive game is so good and well-rounded, I don't think it'll end up being much of an issue. So you run the pick-and-roll with Amare half the time instead of Diaw, you get fewer kickouts to open shooters, more highlight-reel dunks in guys' faces. Now if Amare is *way* less than 100% athletically, which he may well be even by the end of the season, that obviously changes things...but he's still a deadly 10-12 foot jumpshooter, I'm sure he can still get to the rim on that pick-and-roll, he can still rebound, and still be a shotblocking threat--and that might be the key part of all of this, the Suns missed having a shotblocker desperately in the playoffs last year.

I do think Diaw will suffer a bit with Amare on the floor, he really does most of his damage on that pick-and-roll. Still, he's such a skilled player, I think he'll figure out a way to be productive. His scoring might take a hit, but I still see him getting double figures, rebounding, and being a major facilitator in the offense.

With Nash and Marion, you know what you're getting. In Nash you have the smartest, craftiest, most creative player in the league, someone who can shoot the lights out from anywhere on the court, can drive to--and finish at--the basket, and creates open shots for everyone on the team. In Marion, you have someone who simply excels in every area in which you can excel on a basketball court.

Meanwhile the Suns picked up the very solid Marcus Banks to spell Steve Nash (as with Amare, they want Nash fresh and healthy when the real season starts), and Jumaine Jones to play the Tim Thomas role from last year, which Jones is perfectly capable of doing. In fact, he and Thomas are virtually clones, two big, very athletic guys who can hit the open three all day long. Jones hit .391 from three playing that role with the Lakers two years ago.

I also love Leandro Barbosa, he's one of my favorite players in the league to watch. The term "unguardable" is thrown out all too often these days, but... He's the quickest guy in the league, hands down--watching him blow past Kobe in the playoffs last year was surreal; *nobody* blows past Kobe like that. And combine that blow-by ability with a deadly--if jacked up looking--jumper, and you have someone who just can't be stopped. If he were on a lesser team and the focal point of the offense, he'd score 20 a game in his sleep. He's 23...this dude is going to be really, really good in this league.

But my bottom line opinion on this team is that they'll spend the entire year trying to work Amare in, they'll get to the playoffs and need him to be a superstar and he just won't be ready to do it. I'm just hoping he can be at least somewhat healthy the entire season and then be back somewhere remotely close to 100% for a 2007-2008 Suns' championship run. I'm worried though--what basketball player ever suffered an injury of this magnitude and came back to anywhere near 100%?

TOMORROW: The Elite Four