Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Point Guards

One note--typically, I'd put anyone with PG eligibility in the PG category because there are almost always more good SGs than PGs. But as I was putting together the ranking this year, I noticed that didn't seem to be the case for this upcoming season. So I ended up putting most real-life SGs in the SG category. So please note that this list isn't entirely inclusive of all Yahoo-eligible PGs.

The Elites

1. Gilbert Arenas

After the all-star break last year, he averaged 31.1 points with 2.9 threes per game on .474 shooting from the floor and .408 from three. That's ridiculous. He also averaged 3.5 boards, 6.1 assists, 2.0 steals, and shot .820 on 10 FT attempts per game (obviously the more FTA a good FT shooter gets, the more he helps you in that category in fantasy). The only category he hurts you in is turnovers, but that's true for most of the elite players who have the ball in their hands all the time.

2. Allen Iverson

The iron man had perhaps his finest fantasy season, averaging 33 & 7.4 with 1.9 steals, bumping up his FG % to a very respectable .447, and shooting .814 on 11.5 FTA. I keep expecting to see that big dropoff from a 30+ year old player, especially one who's taken as much punishment as Iverson, but he keeps on going strong.

3. Steve Nash

Nash has talked a lot this year about playing far fewer minutes. Keep in mind that the team signed Marcus Banks when they already had the fantastic Leandro Barbosa backing up Nash--that tells me something. Still, in the second half last year, playing only 33 minutes per game (down from 37 before the break), Nash averaged 18-4-9 with 2.0 threes per game, and shot a sick .552 from the floor and .462 from three.

4. Chris Paul

Paul over Billups was a tough choice, I could've gone either way there. Paul had huge numbers for a rookie PG, with 16-5-8 with 2.2 steals and only 2.4 TOs, and shot a respectable .430 from the floor. The big negative in his game is his outside shooting--I expect some improvement, but I still don't think he's going to give you much from three. I watched him do some very nice things in the World Championships, but he still looked hesitant shooting the ball from outside.

5. Chauncey Billups

Billups really bumped up his scoring and especially assist numbers last year under Flip Saunders, from 16.5-6 to 18.5-8.6, which thrust him into the elite tier of fantasy PGs. He hurts you in FG% (.418 last year after a solid .443 the year before) and--surprisingly for a very good defensive player--doesn't get many steals. But he does knock down 2.3 threes a game at a .400+ percentage, which makes him the best PG in that category outside of Arenas.

Tier Two, Solid & Steady

6. Mike Bibby

He's injured and out for the first two weeks of the season, but I've read that he's expected to be back to 100% soon after that. Bibby helps you in points (21.1), threes (2.3 per game/.386), FTs (.849 on 5 attempts per game), and shoots a solid % from the field at .432 and doesn't turn the ball over a lot. He's not a great assist man (5.4 per game last year after 6.8 the year before) and doesn't get you a ton of steals.

7. Jason Kidd

Kidd's scoring has fallen off 4 straight years, down to 13.3 per game in 2005-2006. He still gets a ton of rebounds (7.3), assists (8.4) and steals (1.9), shoots the three well (1.7 per game at .352), and doesn't turn the ball over a lot. Kidd will turn 34 during the season, and they brought in Marcus Williams (who's hurt and will miss the start of the season) to spell him, but I still expect him to average 35+ minutes per game and put up similar numbers to last year. The Nets are a contender in the East, I don't think they're ready to start the Marcus Williams Era just yet.

8. Kirk Hinrich

Two white guys in the top ten! (2.5 if you count Kidd). Hinrich really played well down the stretch last year, averaging 18-4-6 after the break and shooting a solid .439 after .405 before the break. He's kind of a poor man's Billups: he helps in points, assists, turnovers, FT% and threes--but not as much as Bilups, and hurts in FG% and steals.

9. Jameer Nelson

I've been singing this guy's praises for the last two years, and he finally gets to start out the season as the no-bullshit #1 guy at the point. In 33 starts last year, Nelson averaged 16-3-6 with 1.2 threes per game, and shot an excellent .478 from the floor, .438 from three, and .800 from the line. A good player on an exciting, up-and-coming team.

Tier Three, Upside Guys

10. Baron Davis

I had a hard time picking him over Ray Felton because of his injury problems, but if he can stay healthy, Davis could have a giant year in a Don Nelson offense. Davis--as always--killed fantasy owners in the percentage categories last year, but he also put up 18-4-9 with 1.9 threes and big steals & low turnovers. He's a huge gamble, granted, but he'll pay off if he can somehow get in 65-70+ games.

11. Raymond Felton

1/3 of the fantastic rookie PG class of 2005 with Chris Paul & Derron Williams, Felton played out of his mind when they finally just put him out there for 35 minutes and let him do his thing. After the all-star break, Felton averaged 16.7 & 7.6, made 2.0 threes per game and had just 2.6 TOs per. Those are just excellent, excellent rookie PG numbers. Charlotte has added Adam Morrison, and gotten back Okafor & Sean May, so I expect Felton to keep on coming as a rising fantasy basketball star.

Tier Four

12. Mike James

What's going to happen with Mike James in Minnesota? Tough question. He'll share the ball with Ricky Davis and rookie Randy Foye (and Rashad McCants when he gets back healthy in early 2007), but James is the only real shooter out of that crew. I expect his points and assist numbers to take a slight hit, but still remain good, and James to continue to put up excellent 3PT numbers and shooting percentages in all three categories.

13. Tony Parker

Parker is a great, great real life player, but he's very hit and miss in fantasy. He scores and is the most valuable FG% guy in the league, but he hurts you in threes, FT%, assists, turnovers and steals. Just as some guys are 3PT specialists for fantasy purposes, look at Parker as a PTS, FGM & FG% specialist.

14. Stephon Marbury

Yes, I expect Starbury to be back. Of all the question marks that come with the Knicks this season, the one thing I do think will happen is that Isiah will give his star players--the ones he ill-advisedly traded for--a chance to shine. I think Isiah's going to put Marbury and Francis out there for 35 minutes, I think they're going to run an uptempo offense (a blessed departure from the horrible square-peg/round-hole system of Larry Brown), and I think these guys are going up put up decent numbers. I'll put Marbury at 18-8 with a very good FG%.

15. Andre Miller

I had a hard time ranking Miller and the two Williamses (Mo & Derron), but ended up going with old reliable at #15. Miller doesn't give you any threes, but he's solid-to-good in every other category. I also expect Denver to turn things around this year, with Miller possibly reaping the benefit of playing with a more energized team.

16. Mo Williams

I like Mo Williams. A lot. When he gets minutes, he produces, and with TJ Ford gone, he's going to get minutes. Before the all-star break (around when he got hurt), Mo averaged 14.7-2.7-4.2 in under 30 minutes a game, shooting an excellent .450 from the floor, .850 from the line, and .407 from three (making 1.5 threes per game). Solid numbers, and I expect an increase from those.

17. Derron Williams

I'm surprised I have him this low, because I like his game quite a bit and think he's gearing up for a big second season, but there's nobody ahead of him I'd take him over. Strong PGs this year in fantasy basketball. Anyway, Williams struggled a bit to start his rookie season, but came on strong in the final two months, averaging 13.2-5.5 (against only 1.6 TOs), and shooting an excellent .472 from the floor and an unbelievable .526 from three, with 1.7 makes per game.

18. Luke Ridnour

Call me a non-believer when it comes to Luke Ridnour. I literally did like a cartoon double take when I saw him in the mix for the World Championship/Olympics team. I've heard him called the poor man's Steve Nash--but he can't shoot! Ridnour shot a paltry .289 from three last year with only 0.5 makes per game, just horrible numbers. Granted, this was after posting a solid .379 in 2004-2005, but still with fewer than 1 make per game. Ridnour is an outstanding FT shooter (with low attempts, however), and averaged a very solid 7 assists to just 2.1 turnovers. He also got 1.6 steals per game, so it's not like the guy is just fantasy wasteland. But his shooting % and lack of threes hurts you, he scored only 11 per game, and Earl Watson ate into his minutes when he got to Seattle. In fact, with Watson's 11.5-3.0-5.4 and 1.8 threes (on .420 3PT FG%), I'm not sure I wouldn't rather have him over Ridnour--in fantasy and real life. Prove me wrong, Luke, prove me wrong.

Tier Five

19. Shaun Livingston

A lot of people are going to think this is too high, and it might be a year early--but I'm telling you right now, Shaun Livingston is an unbelievable basketball player. For the long run, the only people on this list I'd take over Livingston are Arenas and Paul--and it's closer than you think. It'll probably be another year or two before Livingston breaks out, but the fact that he played the key fourth quarter minutes in the playoffs last year over Cassell speaks volumes to me. I think Cassell will start out getting the big minutes and then just slowly give up more and more time to Livingston as the year progresses. The Clippers love Livingston and have said flat out that they want Livingston to be the starting PG, Cassell be damned. He can't hit the three *at all*, but Livingston is a gifted athlete, an outstanding passer, a great on-ball defender, and his midrange shooting is coming along.

20. Randy Foye

I'm split on this guy. I like his game a lot, and he blew up at Summer League, but he's been struggling a bit in preseason. I think he'll be like Felton and Derron Williams last year, a little rough in the beginning, with inconsistent play and playing time, but he'll get it together by the end of the year. He's unstoppable going to the basket, a nice compliment to Mike James, who's more of a shooter, and he's a great, great athlete. He's been called a poor man's Dwyane Wade, and that might not be considered quite so absurd by the end of the year.

21. TJ Ford

The guy just can't score, but he does everything else really well. On a re-energized Toronto, I look to see him filling up the stat sheet.

22. Rafer Alston

Struggled a bit in his first year in Houston, but I don't see Luther Head keeping him from playing 35 minutes a game. He can still shoot the three, drive, rebound, pass, and get steals.

23. Delonte West

I've heard good things about him in preseason and bad things. The Celtics suddenly have two quality PGs in Sebastian Telfair and Rajon Rondo, but West looks to get solid minutes at PG, SG & SF. And when he gets minutes, he produces in every area. Great percentages, hits the three, rebounds, assists, steals, even blocks. A solid all-around player.

24. Rajon Rondo

If he weren't splitting time with Telfair, I'd have him higher--I like Rondo a lot. He's unstoppable going to the basket, he's a good passer, and he's even shot the ball fairly well in preseason, a question mark going in. I think he'll eventually beat out Telfair, or at least get plenty of minutes in backing up and even playing alongside Telfair, but like with Foye, it might take some time.

25. Leandro Barbosa

Barbosa is one of my 5 favorite players in the league to watch. He's the quickest guy in the NBA, period. When he lowers his head and goes to blow by someone, forget about it, it's over, you just can't guard him. Couple that with his excellent--if fucked up looking--3 point shooting, and you have an offensive force. I'd love for Barbosa to go to a crappy team where he could put up 20 a game--even without Nash's brilliance helping him out, he'd do it in his sleep.

Best of the rest

26. Speedy Claxton (good player, good situation for him)
27. Jason Williams (good 3s and percentages)
28. Devin Harris (excellent player who really came on in the playoffs)
29. Sam Cassell (as mentioned above, I think he's in for a major PT reduction)
30. Sebastian Telfair (not a great fantasy player so far, but he's young and could really improve quickly)

Others

Smush Parker (3 pt & steals specialist)
Monta Ellis (maybe a year away, but I like this guy's game a lot)
Jarrett Jack (he'll get the minutes, just don't know if he has the game)
Rashad McCants (out with injury until January, and then who know who long until he's back to 100%? But he had decent numbers when he finally started getting minutes last year, including shooting the ball, which was a question coming in for him).