FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE

Kobe

If you didn't watch the Lakers-Jazz game last night, you missed a real treat, one of the most entertaining things in all of sports--seeing a great basketball player absolutely GOING OFF.

Kobe dropped a 30 spot in the third period alone and ended with 52--after sitting for most of the 4th and playing a total of only 34 minutes. He shot a sick 19-26 from the floor, on almost all jumpers. Unfortunately, the Jazz couldn't hit the broadside of a barn and the Lakers won in a blowout, causing Jackson to pull Kobe to start the fourth. Jackson did the right thing, for sure, but if he'd kept Kobe in there I'm pretty confident we would have been looking at a 70-point game. Minimum. Kobe was flat-out on fire at the end of the third, hitting ridiculous threes, fallaway jumpers over *Kirilenko*, driving at will (and getting the calls), etc. Even when Utah finally began sending another guy at him, Kobe either split the double team--which he does better than any player in the history of the league--or worked the ball around in the offense to get it back in better position. Just a tour de force performance, a clinic in offensive brilliance.

Now I've had the privilege of seeing hundreds and hundreds of Kobe's games. I came to LA shortly after he did (to slightly less fanfare), and I've watched a good 80-90% of Laker games during my time here. So if Kobe's played a total of 846 games in the regular season and playoffs, I've probably seen more than 700 of them. And while I've witnessed some amazing, incredible, unbelievable things during those 700 games, I've seen Kobe go off like this only a handful of times. This performance wasn't quite up there with the 81-point game, obviously, and singlehandedly outscoring the Mavs through three quarters, but it was still just an astonishing feat, something that maybe 5-10 guys in league history could ever do--on their single greatest day. Like I said, he easily could've put in 70; when Jackson reluctantly put him back in the game for a couple minutes in the 4th, he had cooled off considerably and wasn't even really looking for his shot. But what we did get to see was amazing enough. I had goose bumps watching it. Incredible, incredible performance by an incredible, incredible player.

The Dead Ball

A lot has been made of the so-called "dead ball". The conventional wisdom is that: (1) it's harder to handle because of its slick surface and (b) it bounces dead off the rim, giving it a better chance to roll in.

Now I've always thought #1 would prove to be overblown, that players would get used to it in preseason and turnovers would be right where they were in previous seasons. Well, I was wrong--at least so far. Turnovers are up from about 27.7 per game in 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 to 30.4 so far in 2006-2007, an increase of about 10%--and I don't think all the increase can be attributed to Mark Blount getting more minutes. And my own personal observation is that players are struggling a bit handling the ball--I've seen more lost dribbles and wild-looking passes this year than I can ever remember seeing (in a non-University of Michigan game, I mean). I still think players will eventually get used to it and this aspect of the new ball won't be a big deal, but I'll keep an eye on it and report back in a few months.

As for the other feature, the "deadness" of the ball, look, our eyes don't deceive--at a minimum, the new ball is *weird*. I'm sure, like me, you've seen some absolutely bizarre bounces off the rim with the new ball; flat, strange bounces, bounces you completely don't expect, balls coming in at 100 miles an hour and just *thudding* on the rim and dying there. There's just no doubt in my mind that the ball is, in fact, "dead". So it follows from that that more buckets are being made, that dead bounces on the rim give the ball a better chance of dropping in.

So do the numbers prove it out?

No, not really. Field goal percentage is pretty much exactly where it was last year, 45.3%. Now I have a couple of theories here. First off, more threes are being attempted this year for whatever reason, about 10% more per game than last year. The FG% disparity between 2-point FGs and 3-point FGs is enormous. On the season to date, players are shooting a collective .483 from 2 and .341 from 3.

But a bigger factor might be that players are just rustier to begin the season and that FG percentages climb after the first few months. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any data on the internet to compare numbers one month into the season, but I did notice that three-point FG%--a place where you'd most expect to find rustiness early on--is down from .357 in 2005-2006 to .341 so far in 2006-2007, that's a pretty significant drop.

Interestingly, 2-point FG% is up to .483 from .478 last year. Not a huge difference, but taken with the "rustiness" theory, may suggest that the dead ball is, in fact, likely to result in more baskets made. Again, I'll keep an eye on it and report back in another month or so. If I'm right, then we should expect to see FG percentages up across the board.

East Meets West--and gets its ass kicked

A lot has already been said about this, but seriously, the Eastern Conference is a total fucking joke right now. In 74 interconference games, the West holds a 50-24 record, for a .676 winning percentage. I wonder if any league in the history of sports has ever had such a wide disparity between its two divisions. Even in the worst days of conference disparity in the NBA 4-5 years ago, it was never this bad.

The East has 4 teams at .500 or better and 10 teams at .400 or under--including the entire Atlantic Division. The West has 3 teams at .400 or under and 11 teams at .500 or better--including the entire Pacific Division.

If the playoffs started today, Washington--at a .357 winning percentage--would be in the playoffs in the East. Seattle is currently the 14th best team in the West, the second to worst team in the conference. They're at .375.

Comers And Goers

A couple of rookies have made strides in the past couple of weeks:

Andrea Bargnani has worked his way into the rotation and has gotten 20+ minutes in six straight games. In those games he's averaging 12 & 4 with a three and block per game.

Randy Foye is also starting to see some minutes in Minnesota, and is responding nicely. In the last three games, he's averaging 14 PPG in just 23 minutes and has shot 17-30 from the floor and 3-4 from three. Frankly, I don't know what the problem has been. I've only seen a couple of their games, but Foye has looked great in them. He's quick as hell, he's extremely athletic, he has good strength--and he plays for a godawful team. I think Minnesota's come to the realization that, if you're going to suck, you might as well get the young guys out there and let 'em go wild. I expect Foye's playing time to go way up--along with that of fellow productive rookie Craig Smith, who's averaging a solid 8 & 7 in just 23 minutes in his last 7 games.

With Foye's expected PT increase, look for Mike James's fantasy value to continue to sink. I think we all knew there wasn't a chance in hell his numbers would be anything like 05-06, but 11 & 4 just isn't getting it done. In his last 6 games, which included two doughnuts, he's averaging just 6 PPG. Again, with Foye's star on the rise, I just don't see James turning it around. Cut bait on this guy.

After a somewhat disappointing start to the season, Andres Nocioni is in the Bulls' starting lineup and starting to heat up. In his last 5, he's averaging 20 & 7 with 2 threes per game. The Bulls' other big wing player, Luol Deng, has been solid all year, averaging a cool 18/6/2 and shooting .545 from the floor. The goods news for the Bulls is that they've shaken off their horrendous start with back-to-back wins. The bad news is that both the wins came over the Knicks, so they don't mean anything.

Kwame Brown's unexpectedly solid play has fantasy owners in a bind over which Lakers' center to go with. I can't help you here--Bynum's clearly The Future, but it looks like Jackson's just going to go with the hot hand the rest of the year. Some nights that will be Kwame, some nights it'll be Bynum.