TEN GAMES IN

THE BAD

Phoenix/Miami

Now that Dallas and Detroit seem to have gotten their shit together with 7- and 3-game win streaks respectively, it's just Phoenix and Miami who are god-awful defending conference finalists. But I'm hear to tell you the picture isn't as bleak as it seems. Well, for Phoenix anyway.

Phoenix has played just a brutal schedule in its first 10 games, their opponents going a collective 69-36 to date. The Suns' losses are: @Lakers, Utah, @Clippers, @San Antonio, Dallas, and @Utah. That's rough.

But things are looking up. Phoenix is coming off a tough overtime loss on the road to league-leader Utah, and then a solid road win over resurgent Golden State. But more importantly for the long-term, Amare is starting to come alive: over the last 4, Amare is averaging 21 & 10 and shooting .634 from the floor--in under 30 minutes a game.

Other encouraging signs include Leandro Barbosa's steady march upward; he's averaging 20/4/6 and shooting .451 from the floor and an amazing .474 from 3PT on almost 6 attempts per game (this after shooting over .440 from three last year, so it's no fluke). The only area I'd like to see improvement is in getting to the line. I realize that's not a huge part of the Phoenix system, but his 5.2 FTA per game is the lowest among all 20PPG scorers--and that list includes Ray Allen and Wally Sczerbiak, for crying out loud. Barbosa is hands down the quickest player in the league. When he lowers his head and takes it to the rim, he's literally unguardable; hence, he should be getting to the line at will. Like when Phoenix goes cold on their jumpers, which happens occasionally.

In the end, I think this team is going to be just fine. They played an extremely difficult early schedule when they were trying to awkwardly figure out a way to incorporate Amare into what they had going on last year, and got tripped up a bit. I don't know if they can win a championship--there are a lot of "if"s with this team, including Amare's knees and Nash's back--but my gut feeling is that they'll turn this thing around, win 50+ games, and be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs.

Now with Miami, it's a bit different. Unlike Phoenix, Miami is just simply a bad team. In fact, they're as bad as a team with Dwyane Wade on it can be. They can't score--at all--and they're mediocre defensively. They're old, creaky, injury-prone, and thin. This team reminds me a lot of the 2002-2003 Lakers, a team that has almost no room for error. It was Shaq and Kobe and a bunch of crap, they came out of the gate slowly, Shaq was beat up the whole year, they limped into the playoffs and thought they could just turn it on when they needed to--and just got plain beat by a superior Spurs team. If they had played that series 100 times, they'd have gotten beat 90 of them.

Eventually Shaq will be back, but I'm telling you right now--Miami won't win the championship this year, period. I don't care if Wade puts them on his back the way he did last year, it's not going to be enough, they just don't have the supporting cast. I know how Shaq is--like Miami's team, a guy with almost no room for error. When he does get back, it's going to take him forever to get back into shape, and even then it wasn't like he was the 30-15 asskicking machine of 2001 before the injury.

Getting Jason Williams back will help enormously, but I still don't see how they can score reliably with Williams-Wade-Walker-Haslem-Mourning. That's one great offensive player, two decent ones, a 10 PPG garbage guy, and a total offensive zero. Their bench players (after GP yields the starting PG job) include Payton, Dorrell Wright and James Posey. Payton's .351 FG% leads that group. With Shaq out for at least another month, Michael Doleac becomes their primary big man off the bench. Doleac. This team is in serious trouble.

The only saving grace is that they play in the shitpile East, where Dwyane Wade, Rafael Araujo, Shawn Kemp, and two guys picked randomly from the stands (three, if one of 'em could beat out Araujo) could probably compete for the #8 playoff spot. But still, just like with that '03 Lakers team, if they limp in, they'll limp right out. They need help.

Chicago

Chicago came in with sky-high expectations and spazzed their way to a horrid 3-8 start. But like Phoenix, they've played a brutal early schedule, with 8 of their first 11 games on the road and their opponents 69-47 on the season. Chicago is currently on a 5-game road losing streak to teams who collectively have a winning percentage of .679. The average margin of defeat was 9 points.

What's their problem? As you might expect, there are a few. They're a good defensive team, giving up only 102 points per 100 possessions, but they're a terrible offensive team and don't have the surrounding firepower to withstand having a complete offensive zero on the floor for 35 minutes a game. The Pistons surrounded Ben Wallace with Billups, Hamilton, Prince and Rasheed, all very good offensive players. And they still weren't a fantastic offensive team, they were just good enough to score what they needed in order to win. The Bulls will obviously have to win with defense too, but I have my doubts about whether they can score enough, like the Pistons could.

And let's be honest, Ben Wallace is not the same player. He's been in decline for a couple of years, and I don't see that turning around. Wallace is a guy with massive heart (whereas his brother just has an enlarged one), but his game relies almost entirely on his super high-end athleticism. Wallace at his peak was big and powerful, sure, but he was also extremely quick for his size and had great hops. I predicted at the time of the deal that we'd see a major decline in production over the next 3-4 years as Wallace starts to decline physically, and I think that's what's happening this year. He's still a very good player, but (a) I don't think he's a great one anymore, and (b) I think it'll get worse--and possibly much worse--over the rest of his contract. I knew the Pistons would suffer the loss of Big Ben, but I also knew you don't give $60M to a 32-year-old whose game depends largely on pure athleticism. You think the Bulls would give him that same contract today? Highly doubtful.

I also think the Bulls have the same problem they've had for the past two seasons--I just don't see how you win with Ben Gordon as your primary scoring option. I like Ben Gordon, don't get me wrong. I think he's a good, energetic, clutch player who can play a major role on a good team. But leading shot-taker? A 6'1 guy who shoots in the low 40s? What team has ever won with a guy like that leading the team in shots? The Iverson Sixers, I guess, but they didn't *really* win, they got to the Finals in a very down year for their conference, they weren't one of the 5 best teams in basketball in 2001. And they got ran off the court by the Lakers.

I think they need to figure out a way for Deng and Nocioni to do more. They've both had their moments this year, Deng leading the team in scoring (but not shots) with 17 PPG on .542 shooting, and Nocioni torching the Lakers for 30 on Sunday, but it hasn't been enough to make this team respectable offensively. With Hinrich staying right around where he was last year (albeit with better percentages), Deng and Nocioni are the keys to this team getting good enough offensively to win 50+ games and be a contender in the East.

I wonder if Skiles is on the hot seat. Crumbs, what's your take here? He might just be one of those coaches who's great at getting a young team into the playoffs, but not the right guy to take them to the next level. This season has been extremely disappointing thus far, I think Skiles needs to show he can lead this team and get them back on track. The Bulls have a lot of talent, there's no reason it can't be assembled into a very good or even great team.

Milwaukee

This team came in with moderately high hopes, and a 3-8 start wasn't what they were looking for. Now with promising second-year man Charlie Villanueva out 4-6 weeks with an elbow injury, they're in danger of a real freefall.

They're just an awful defensive team, giving up 110 points per 100 possessions, which ties them with Seattle and Washington for league-worst. They're a decent offensive team with a few real bright spots. Michael Redd has been on fire in the early going, averaging a shade under 30 PPG with his usual excellent percentages. Villanueva was playing well before the injury, averaging 14/7/2 and shooting .495 from the floor and a respectable .353 from three. The key here is that he's shown good shot selection for a guy Toronto management dubbed "little Antoine Walker". And Andrew Bogut is continuing to progress steadily, putting up a solid 12/7/3 in his second year. He's not setting the world on fire just yet, especially on the defensive end, but those aren't bad numbers for a second-year center.

Still, this team just doesn't have an identity. If you're that terrible on defense, you need to start putting up Phoenix/Golden State/Denver type of offensive numbers, and Milwaukee isn't doing that. They're decent offensively, but nothing special. I'd really like to see Mo Williams step up his game. I thought he was in for a potentially giant year, a Mike James breakout kind of year, but 14 & 6 with crappy percentages doesn't wow me.

Individuals Struggling

With Sacramento's new look defense giving up just 102 points per 100 possessions and Kevin Martin emerging as a star-in-the-making, the Kings have a good shot at putting together something worthwhile here--they're 5-4 in the early going, but maybe that would be even better if Bibby and Artest would pull their heads out. While Martin is ripping the nets for 24 PPG on .528 shooting and Shareef Abdur-Rahim is doing a yeoman's job guarding big PFs and even centers, Bibby and Artest are launching up enough bricks to house all of Shawn Kemp's illegitimate children. They're taking 32 shots a game between them, and both are sub-.400 on the season. The FGA includes 9 threes attempted per game, and Artest and Bibby are shooting a collective .231 on them. Now you know Bibby is going to turn it around, he's too solid of a shooter to keep going like this. But you also know (a) Artest won't turn it around, and (b) he won't stop shooting either. But that's what you get with Artest. Obviously he's the key to this resurgent defense, so you have to take the bad with the good. But maybe it could be just a little less bad?

Speaking of bricklayers, Josh Smith is shooting sub-.400 as well. How a guy who can jump over the top of the backboard shoots under 40% is beyond me, but his 4.6 3PT FGA per game--on which he's shot below 30%--might have something to do with it. I knew when he started shooting the three last year that it could end up being a curse in disguise. It reminds me of when Chris Webber was at UM; if he took a three I'd pray for a miss, because otherwise you could be sure 3-4 more would be going up real quickly. Smith isn't a rocket scientist, he's just someone who's really quick and can jump really, *really* fucking high. He needs someone to get in his ear and tell him to take the goddamn ball to the basket. Tell him this: I want three dunks for every three point attempt. Until you get three dunks, don't shoot a three, period.

Another guy struggling with his shot, surprisingly, is Manu Ginobili. You know, I think Bill Simmons might be on to something here. Why does a (supposedly) 29-year-old guy: have a bald spot; get injured every 10 days; move about as well as Joe Paterno, post-surgery; and have to play under 30 minutes a night for his entire NBA career? It's curious. I mean, even gimpy-ass Grant Hill, Steve Nash and Shaq can play over 30 minutes, but not Manu? Anyway, like Bibby, you know he'll be back, he's just too good (even for a 34-year-old or whatever he really is) to drop 7 points in FG% in one year.

Speaking of shooting poorly, hi Adam Morrison. It's one thing for Manu or Bibby to throw up a bunch of bricks, they can do lots of other things for your team. But if *all* you can do is shoot, you better shoot the lights out. Morrison needs to shoot like Mike Miller, and so far it's been more like Mike Sweetney. Morrison had a couple nice games last week, but followed that up with two stinkeroos. He's hitting a paltry .369 for the year, and .326 from three. He's also inexplicably shooting an atrocious .667 from the line and has more turnovers than assists. For--let's face it--a loudmouth punk (the fact that nobody calls him out on this for the OBVIOUS reason is hilarious to me), he needs to get a lot better. Fast.

Another couple of guys who are holding back the Bobcats are Ray Felton and Gerald Wallace. I'm really disappointed in Felton's start to the year. He finished up last season on such a high note, I thought he'd come into 2006 and just tear it up. So far he's averaging a cruddy 13/4/5 and shooting terribly from the floor and from three. He's fallen way behind Deron Williams and Chris Paul, but I'm keeping the faith that he'll bounce back. If you have him in your fantasy league, hang onto him another month or so, give him a chance.

Meanwhile Gerald Wallace is just down in every category across the board, with the total absence of blocks being most painful to his fantasy owners. Apparently with Okafor swatting away everything in sight, there's just not enough blocked shots to go around for Wallace. But Wallace has also seen huge dips in scoring, rebounding and steals. He's probably not 100% yet, but it's been a terrible start to the season for him. His upside is still high enough that I'd definitely hang on to him, but I can only imagine his owners are just about out of patience. You don't win in fantasy with your SF going for 11 & 4 every night.