BREAKOUT PERFORMERS

I know everyone has one of these lists out right now, but mine will be different because it....uh....will be good. Remember how I was all over Monta Ellis, Mo Williams, Al Jefferson and Leandro Barbosa this time last year? Yeah, I thought so, bitch.

OK, I'm going to break this into two sections--guys everyone else is pimping (I didn't even include Andre Iguodala above, since everyone and his grandmother knew he'd bust out), and the dark horses.

POPULAR PICKS

1. LeMarcus Aldridge.

I said last year he should have been the #1 pick, and I think I'd still go in that direction (although I expect Tyrus Thomas and Andrea Bargnani to make big moves this year). Aldridge is a legit 6'10 and has one of the longest wingspans in the league. He's a highly skilled player with a sweet J and well-developed post moves, and he's tougher than everyone thought he'd be. Don't get me wrong, you're not going to confuse this skinny bastard with Shaq, but he can bang around inside, pick up 8-10 boards, and block shots. He would have been the ideal complement to a healthy Greg Oden, a true center, but alas, that plan is on hold for a year. Still, with or without Oden, the team thought highly enough of Aldridge to send 20-10 Zach Randolph packing, they clearly believe Aldridge is ready to step up to a productive 35-minute-a-night big man.

In Aldridge's final 15 games last year before getting hurt, all starts, he put up 14.7 & 8 on .519 shooting and averaged 0.9 steals and 1.6 blocks per--all in just over 30 minutes per game. With Randolph out of the picture and Oden on the sidelines, I think Aldridge will start out with those kind of numbers and then improve steadily through the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up an Al Jefferson second half from last year where he's going 20 & 10 with 2 blocks a night.

2. Danny Granger
(BTW, this numbering system doesn't mean anything)

Everyone is picking this guy to break out, he has Josh Howard written all over him. Every time I saw him play last year, I couldn't believe he was averaging only 13 a game. In the second half of last year he bumped that to 15, but I think he should go even higher this season. He's a solid shooter, good at going to the rim & finishing once he's there, and money from the line--that should add up to 17-18 a game easy. And you can throw in 5-6 boards, 2-3 assists and excellent defense on top of that.

3. Deron Williams

I know, he's already damn good, but looking at his numbers last year--16 & 9--I think he's going to solidly improve on that and join the ranks of the true superstars. We all saw what he could do in the playoffs last year, and watching him in the FIBA Americas Championship just clinched it for me. Williams has to be brimming with confidence coming into this season, I think he's getting ready to completely blow up.

4. Mike Conley Jr.

I don't know if Conley will be a star from day one, but I think he'll be one of these young PGs who wins more and more PT from the starting veteran throughout the season, then finishes strong as the #1 guy. I've seen Damon Stoudamire & Terrence Kinsey--they're no Mike Conley. He can't shoot, but like Chris Paul, he can do everything else. He drives at will, he has a solid midrange game, he's a great ballhandler and gifted passer--he just has a very mature, NBA-ready game. I think Conley has a good chance to be the next great young PG after Paul & Williams.

5. Randy Foye

Another guy who might not start out like a house on fire, but should have steady improvement through the year and then finish strong when a crappy Minnesota team commits fully to the youth movement. In Foye's last 10 games, he put up 15.4/3.5/3.8. In his last 30, he averaged 12.2/2.6/3.5 in 26 minutes, solid per-minute numbers, and shot .448 from the floor, .875 from the line, and an excellent .393 from three on almost 3 attempts per game. I'm still not sure about Foye's long term superstardom prospects--gut says no--but I think he'll be a solid 16 & 5 guy by the end of this season.

6. Andrea Bargnani

I like this dude a lot. Didn't think I would, but I do. I'm not sure I want this guy playing center for me, but small forward? Absolutely. After the all-star break, Bargnani put up a solid 14.9 & 5.6 (in fewer than 30 minutes per game) and shot .456 from the floor and a sparkling .403 from three on 5.5 attempts per game. In short, the man can pull. Bargnani is expected to start this year and get big minutes. This is a young, exciting, hungry team playing an uptempo system, and with strong PG play. I don't see any way Bargnani doesn't become an offensive force this season.

7. Nene

Nene had a huge second half for Denver, finally staying healthy and showing why this team gave him $60M before he had accomplished jack in the league. Post all-star, he averaged 14 & 8 with 1.1 steals and .9 blocks, shooting a ridiculous .624 from the floor. Hey, dunks count for 2 points too. He's coming off yet another injury, suffered in the FIBA Americas Championship, but all reports have him likely ready to go by the start of the season or shortly thereafter. This guy is still only 25--if he can stay healthy, there's still a ton of upside here.

8. Andrew Bynum

This could be a major case of wishful thinking, but I honestly think Big Andrew has done well to position himself for a breakout season. I said last year I'd be able to tell from the first preseason game what Bynum is going to do this year based on his waistline alone, and I can tell you, all the reports about him busting his ass in the offseason appear to be on the level, he looks like he's in the best shape of his life. Skills aren't the problem, Bynum has a solid post game, outstanding hands, he rebounds and blocks shots--it's his general fitness level that's lacking, and I have high hopes that he's addressed that.

If he wins the starting job (and if he doesn't win it outright to start the season, he will once Phil Jackson realizes yet again how bad Kwame Brown & Chris Mihm suck) and plays hard for 30+ minutes a game, I think you can pencil in 12 & 10 with 2 blocks--basically a slight improvement over his January numbers when he had that great stretch that left the Lakers poo-poohing offers for Kevin freakin' Garnett. If he's too fat/slow/disinterested/foul-prone, expect him to be lost in the shuffle again and the Lakers organization (and your humble scribe) to go into complete panic mode.

To be clear here, I'm not saying Bynum is an especially lazy player, I just think he's a typical young guy who doesn't know how much hard work even the most physically gifted player has to put in in order to become a superstar. Maybe he'll get it, maybe he won't. Time will certainly tell.

Even more obvious breakout candidates than those above: Brandon Roy, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Corey Maggette, Luol Deng

On the fence, but gut says no: Ray Felton, Marvin Williams, Jameer Nelson

On the fence, but gut says yes: Rudy Gay

Next time: The Darkhorses