MIHMPOSSIBLE DREAM

Thursday, December 13, 2007

AT THE QUARTER POLE

With about 1/4th of the season over, here's where I see things:

BEST TEAM

1. San Antonio Spurs 17-4
2. Boston Celtics 18-2
3. Phoenix Suns 17-6

Boston has the best record. They're outscoring teams by almost 14 points per game. They're giving up 87 a game, a full 4.5 fewer points than the next best defensive team (Detroit). They're shooting .479 from the floor as a team, and .382 from three--both figures top 5 in the league. They're scoring 110 points per 100 possessions and giving up 95, both ridiculous numbers. So why do I only have them #2?

Because they've played 16 of their 20 games against the Eastern Conference, and none of their other 4 games were against any of the Western powers. Look, I'm not saying they're not for real--I do have them as the second best team in the league after all. But I still think the Spurs are a tick better, going 15-3 to open the season (against a better schedule) before Duncan sprained an ankle. Impressively, they're 2-1 since, with wins over Dallas & Utah before stumbling on the road to Golden State.

Manu Ginobili (averaging 21/5/4) and Tony Parker (20/3.5/7) are playing the best basketball of their lives, and Duncan's Duncan. I hate to say it, but I once again have to make these guys my solid favorite to win the NBA Championship.

Phoenix was looking great at 16-4 before a recent 1-2 stumble where they inexplicably lost games to horrible Minnesota and Miami squads. But a tough, gut-it-out win over Utah last night may have righted the ship. I still think they're right there with San Antonio, and I'd be extremely excited about a Suns-Spurs Western Conference Championship--we'll just have to hope David Stern doesn't once again make himself the MVP of the series and hand it over to San Antonio on a silver platter.


MVP

1. Dwight Howard (23 & 15, 2.8 blocks, .607 FG%)
2. Lebron James (30/7/8, 1.9 steals, 1.5 blocks)
3. Kobe Bryant (27/6/5, 2.0 steals)
4. Kevin Garnett (19/11/4, 1.7 steals, 1.7 blocks, .552 FG%)
5. Steve Nash (18/4/12, .525 FG%, .465 3PT%, .950 FT%)
6.. Chris Paul (22/4/10, 2.8 steals, .492 FG%, .912 FT%)
7. Tim Duncan (18/9/3, 1.8 blocks, .535 FG%)
8. Carlos Boozer (25/11.5/3, .577 FG%)
9. Carmelo Anthony (25/5.5/4)
10. Amare Stoudemire (21 & 9, 2.0 blocks, .569 FG%)

Others under consideration: Deron Williams, Tracy McGrady, Baron Davis, Josh Howard, Manu Ginobili, Allen Iverson.

Notes:

I have to give the nod to Dwight Howard at this stage, he's dominated the first part of the season even more than Lebron and Kobe have. He's like the young Shaq, just a matchup nightmare who needs to be double teamed on every catch on every possession. Now that his defensive game is rounding into shape, he's a total force of nature on both ends of the court.

The Lakers are definitely a better team than the Cavs, at least so far, but Lebron was doing something utterly historic before missing 5 games with a hand injury. I think he deserves to be ahead of Kobe at this stage.

I almost put Chris Paul ahead of Steve Nash, that's how good Paul has been in the season's first 20 or so games. Nash has fellow top 25 players Amare Stoudemire (more like top 10) and Shawn Marion, Chris Paul has David West, Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler--good but not great supporting talent--and yet the Hornets are within 2.5 games of Phoenix. That's impressive. Paul is a maestro out there--like Nash, always in complete control of the game. He's added some solid outside shooting to his repertoire, knocking down a respectable 38.6% of his 3 three-point attempts per game. He's the best ball-pressure PG in the league (his 2.8 steals per game easily leading the league), and his 3.23 assist-to-turnover ratio is even a hair ahead of Nash's 3.15. But it's Nash's obscene shooting percentages and his overall importance in making that Suns' system work that gives him a slight edge over Paul in the MVP race.

There are people who think Manu Ginobili has been more valuable to the Spurs than Tim Duncan has this year. Those people are incorrect. Duncan has always been, and will always be, undervalued because his numbers aren't that great for an MVP candidate, but he's the toughest cover the Spurs have on offense--the one guy who always draws the double team--and he's the most valuable defensive player in the entire league. Ginobili might be a better fantasy player, but Duncan gets the nod in real life.

Carlos Boozer vs. Deron Williams for Utah's best MVP candidate is a tough one. Boozer is a scoring machine, a killer rebounder, and the team's go-to guy. Williams is the unquestionable floor leader, a money shooter, a better defender, and is clutch in his own right. I went with Boozer, but I'm still not entirely convinced. Williams is averaging 21/3/9, and shooting an absurd .512 from the floor and .462 from three. If he's not as good as Carlos Boozer--or Chris Paul, in their lifelong "Best PG in the Class of 2005" competition--it's only by a sliver.

Josh Howard has been--clearly, IMO--the best player on the Dallas Mavericks in the early going. Nowitzki has been a sweet-shooting scoring machine in his career, but Howard has outscored him and out-shot him in all three percentage categories (and has made more 3s) this season. Dirk is still a great player, don't get me wrong, but Josh Howard is becoming The Man in Dallas--I've seen several games recently where he was the guy they turned to in the 4th, and he definitely delivers.

2 Comments:

At 2:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good stuff. I am not totally sold on Boston either - my gut feeling is that their big three might wear down by playoff time.

 
At 3:27 PM, Blogger claybird said...

How about that chipped tooth man?! You gotta bump up Nash a couple spots for sacking up after that. It wasn't a gushing smashed nose, but still...

 

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