TROUBLE BREWING IN MIAMI

I think the Heat have a real problem on their hands. They're beyond terrible right now while waiting for Dwyane Wade to get back to his old, awesome self, but that's not what I'm talking about. Wade will get healthy, the team will get back to being competitive in the Eastern Conference--if not by this year, then next...but I strongly think they're well down a path that leads to them losing Wade in the summer of 2010.


This is a team with some serious institutional problems--well, one major institutional problem anyway:

Shaq sucks.

Shaq really, really sucks now.

He came into this season knowing Wade would be out with injury in the early going and that the team would need to rely on him--and he showed up fat and out of shape. He's done that before, of course, but he was able to work himself back into shape when he was 27--now that he's 35, it just doesn't happen that way. And with all the alarm bells ringing and every incentive in the world to prove people wrong, Shaq's averaging a very pedestrian 15 & 7.5 in the early going, and I don't see any improvement happening on the horizon. He's just completely done as even a good player, forget the old "baddest man in sports" golden days.


Now here's the rub: Shaq was signed to a horribly ill-advised contract extension that pays him $20,000,000 per for the next two seasons after this one--that culminates in the summer of 2010, which is exactly when Dwyane Wade has his opt-out. So you're paying this huge amount--in a salary cap sport--to someone who just completely blows now, a guy who can't even stay on the court for 30 minutes due to being so out of shape and foul prone (due to being so out of shape).


Here's what I see happening. They're going to be a middle of the road playoff team at best this year and the next two, and a huge step down from the Eastern big boys Boston, Orlando & Detroit (and maybe Toronto if they can ever get healthy). As the ugly Kobe situation shows, that's not exactly a dream scenario for a player of Wade's insane talent & drive. If everything goes just right, they're looking at some 45 win seasons and a bad second round playoff exit. That's if everything goes right. The worse case is Shaq deteriorates even further, Wade struggles with injury, they lose Ricky Davis in free agency this summer--we could be looking at a lottery team, even in the East. But a crappy kind of lottery team, a #12 pick instead of a #2 pick, the kind that doesn't get you enough help to get you out of the vicious cycle of mediocrity (without a lot of luck).


If this scenario happens--and I don't see how it doesn't--I think Wade is gone. Teams like Portland (or whoever is most like the current Portland team in 2010) will start stockpiling cap room in advance of the summer of 2010, and Wade will have his choice of 3-4 teams with good, young talent.


Ironically, Wade's injury might end up being the only thing that saves his future in Miami. The only way I see out of this mess is for this year's team to keep sucking hard, maybe get some luck in the lottery (or maybe they won't need it, they're currently the 3rd worst team in the league), and snag one of the major talents in what appears to be another strong draft. It won't quite match the Oden/Durant top end, but Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, OJ Mayo and others look like they'll make for a monster class.


Help probably won't be coming in free agency, at least not easily. Shaq's absurd contract combined with Wade's max deal means they have no cap room, and they just don't have much in the way of good, young tradeable pieces (although Daquan Cook and Dorrell Wright could possibly change that in the next two years). If they don't get major help in the draft, they'll likely have to take a chance on a damaged goods free agent (either an injury guy or a headcase), and that almost never works out.


The summers of 2009-2011 are going to be some interesting times indeed for the NBA, with megastars Kobe (2009), Wade (2010), Lebron & Carmelo (2011) all hitting their opt-outs, and all stuck in potentially bad situations. It's funny, but with the recent play of Jordan Farmar and Andrew Bynum, Kobe might have gone from the cusp of the trading block to the the most promising long-term situation of the four.


A FEW QUICKIES


It's really nice to see Richard Jefferson back to 100% healthy. He's always been a good all-around player, but he's been a veritable scoring machine in the early going this year, his 25.9 scoring average a good 3.7 points above his previous career high. He's going to the line a whopping 10.5 times per game (and shooting 84% there), joining Dwight Howard and Lebron James as the only players in double figures.


After watching the Utah Jazz physically dominate the Lakers without Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, I'm really starting to love this team, they're just big, tough, and athletic. Andrei Kirilenko seems to be fully recovered from his year-long nap last year, he's filling up the stat sheet with 11-7-6 and his typically strong blocks (2.4 per) and steals (1.7). Another guy I'm really starting to like on their team is Ronnie Brewer. He struggled last year after being a lottery pick, but he looks like a completely different player this season. He's a very active defender, and has a solid midrange offensive game. Early on, he's averaging a respectable 14-2.7-2.6, an excellent 2.4 steals, and shooting 52% from the floor. Nice player.


After a disastrous start, Golden State is 8-2 in their last 10 and looking like the team that finished up last season white hot. Stephen Jackson returning from suspension has made a huge difference, his athleticism and physicality is a large part of making that Warriors system work. He's averaging 22-5-4 in his first 12 games and does a yeoman's job on defense--not that he's an all-league defender or anything, but that team asks him to constantly d-up guys who are way bigger than him, and a lot of times their success comes down to whether Jackson (and Matt Barnes as well) can hold their own with the tough Western PFs.

Monta Ellis is also starting to come around, as I knew he would--he's just too athletic and talented not to make it. He's now up to 17-4-3 and shooting a very nice .476 from the floor.

Props also to Manu Ginobili; even though he's my single most hated player in the entire league because he's such a flopping piece of shit, you have to give it up for what this man does on the court. In under 30 minutes a game, Ginobili is averaging 21-5-4.5, shooting .478 from the floor and .438 from three, and playing his usual harassing (and flopping) defense. San Antonio just beat Utah *without Duncan* (Ginobili going for 37-8-6) to get to a ridiculous 17-3 on the year, sometimes you just have to tip your cap to a job well done--even when you can't stand the team.