EARLY TRENDS

POSITIVE:

1. New Orleans Hornets

I like what New Orleans is doing in their 4-1 start. They're far from an elite team, but it's accomplishment enough to even make the playoffs in the Western Conference, and I think they're gonna do it this year. They have a cool offensive system where they line up with two big time shooters (Morris Peterson, Rasual Butler and Peja Stojakovic, looking like his old sweet-shooting self), a good all-around PF with a nice shooting touch (David West), and a giant rebounder (Tyson Chandler), and it's all led by superstar in the making Chris Paul.

Other teams have tried this format, putting a bunch of shooters on the floor with a couple big rebounders, but what makes it work for New Orleans is the genius of Chris Paul. As I watched him dismantle the Lakers with 21 assists (against 2 turnovers), I just marvelled at what this guy can do with the basketball. Virtually every offensive possession the Hornets have goes like this: Paul penetrates past his man with ridiculous ease, the defense collapses on him at the FT line (or if they don't, he just takes it to the basket), he kicks to whoever is now open out of Peterson, Peja and West, they get a wide open shot. Or if the center comes at him, he dumps off to Chandler for a garbage bucket. And the thing is, he never makes the wrong decision. New Orleans is shooting 43% from three on 21+ attempts per game, and Paul is averaging 12.4 assists per.

I like this team a lot, they're fun to watch. (And keep your eye on rookie Julian Wright; he's not getting regular PT and probably won't this season, but I saw him get some minutes against Portland a week ago and he looked like he could be a real player down the line).

2. Atlanta Hawks

I can't believe what this team is doing--wins over Phoenix and Dallas, a heartbreaking 1-point road loss to Detroit, and another close road loss at New Jersey to be the most impressive 2-2 team in basketball. They haven't given up 100 points in a game yet, holding Phoenix to 96 last night (impressive even with Amare injured).

All of a sudden the Hawks are a very good rebounding team, led by promising rookie Al Horford (getting almost 11 boards per game in under 30 minutes per).

Super-athlete Josh Smith is doing everything (except taking good shots). Check out these averages through the first four games: 17.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.5 steals, 4.0 blocks. What a freakshow.

And Marvin Williams looks like a completely different player, as sometimes happens in a player's third season. Williams is being aggressive taking the ball to the basket and getting the line, and is averaging a very nice 18/6/2, shooting over 60% from the floor and over 80% from the line (on a solid 5.5 attempts per game). He's become a real tough matchup, and is even playing some solid defense. I mean, let's keep in mind that Williams is only 21, he played only one year at North Carolina--the book on him may have been closed a tad too soon.

And another thing I like about this team is it's depth. In addition to it's solid starting lineup of Joe Johnson, the 3 guys listed above, and Random Shitty Point Guard, the team has super-sub Josh Childress (my vote for the league's most underrated player) and Shelden Williams, and has solid center Zaza Pachulia coming back from injuries any day now. This team is big, athletic and deep, but has the same problem it's had forever--crappy PG play. There is some hope in the form of rookie Acie Law, at least as a scoring threat, but I don't think he can be a major playmaking PG in the NBA. But with Joe Johnson leading the show, maybe they don't need him to be--time will tell.

NEGATIVE

1. Phoenix Suns

I'm not saying they won't be a great team once Amare gets healthy, they almost certainly will be. But flash forward to next May, I think this team has some serious issues to address before it goes up against the other Western Conference big dogs. Thanks to being owned by some sort of paralegal or OfficeMax regional manager who can't afford to purchase real NBA-caliber reserves , the team has absolutely no depth. Their big men off the bench are Brian Skinner and Sean Marks. Seriously.

This is a 7 man team, and 2 of those guys--Grant Hill and Amare Stoudemire--come with major injury concerns. And do you really want Steve Nash playing 40 minutes a game for 82 games? That sounds like an excellent strategy for winning a championship. This team's roster should be forcibly removed from Phoenix's owner's broke-ass hands and given to somebody willing to spend a few more million dollars to add some goddamn depth. This franchise doesn't deserve such a cool and talented team, it should be in LA or NY--or anywhere that doesn't sell half their #1 picks for cash. I mean, seriously, Robert Sarver, do you need me to float you a couple hundred? Are you OK to pay your bills, is the electricity in America West Arena going to go out in the middle of a game?

This team needs another guard (or they need to play Marcus Banks 20 minutes a game), they need another swing player for when Grant Hill gets hurt, and they desperately need a quality big man or three. What are they going to do if and when they play San Antonio, put Amare on Tim Duncan the whole game? He picks up a foul every 3 minutes against Duncan, so now you've just taken your top scorer out of the game and you have Brian Skinner one-on-one with Tim Duncan--with Sean Marks waiting in the wings. That'll work.

What an embarassment this franchise is. The Suns' fans deserve better, Steve Nash deserves better, and the whole goddamn NBA in general deserves better.

2. Chicago

Nice call on not pulling the trigger on the Kobe trade, Paxson. Now your team is in free-fall, the young guys aren't panning out like you hoped they would, and the Lakers are playing pretty well (and with Lamar Odom due back soon)--so Kobe's most likely off the table. For now. We'll see what happens in another month, I'm certainly not counting any chickens. But regardless, the asking price just went up for Kobe while your assets have devalued.

Chicago's sitting here looking like they have exactly the same team as last year. Their best scorer is a 6'0 gunner (Ben Gordon), Luol Deng is still good but not yet on step one of the superstar track, Tyrus Thomas is oozing athleticism but his game is all over the map, and Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni are both decent but too inconsistent to be more than that.

Everyone always overrates potential, they always think their young guys are just on the cusp of exploding, but even promising players like Deng and Gordon and Thomas are so far from being superstars that you can't treat them like they're the 18-year-old Lebron James. Or the 29-year-old Kobe Bryant, for that matter. Like I've said all along, if Deng even makes it to the Paul Pierce level, consider yourself lucky as hell and pat each other on the back for making one hell of a draft pick--and Pierce has never led a team to jackshit. If you have a chance to get Kobe--in his prime--and have the ability to surround him with some good talent, you do it. Period.

Chicago will be fine, they'll get their shit together and win 45 or 48 games or whatever, and lose in the second round of the playoffs. But what they thought was going to happen--all these young guys exploding onto the scene, Deng joining the ranks of the true studs in the league, and the team developing into a real contender--ain't happening.