JASON KIDD RUMORS SWIRLING

Rumors are hot and heavy regarding a 3-team deal between Dallas, Portland and New Jersey in which Dallas would get Kidd, Portland would get Devin Harris, and New Jersey would get some combination of Travis Outlaw, Jerry Stackhouse, Desagana Diop, Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye and draft picks.

Some thoughts:

1. I think it makes sense for Dallas to give up Harris-Stackhouse-Diop, but I don't think it's a total slam dunk like most people seem to. Devin Harris can hoop, he's like a poor man's Tony Parker who can play defense. I looked at his January numbers today, he's averaging like 16 & 7 with 1.5 turnovers and a .547 shooting %. That's very, very good. He's like Parker in that he's just *so fucking quick* that he's unguardable by anyone in the league.

However, his upside is limited since we're essentially talking about a 6'2 scoring guard. Harris is a good ballhandler and picks up assists because he drives & kicks so much, but--again like Parker--he's not a natural point guard. So even if he completely flourishes, well, I'm all for having another Tony Parker on my team, but only if he's surrounded by 1-2 other studs. I don't want a 6'2 guard being the focal point of my offense, I don't want Parker/Gordon/Barbosa/Harris taking the highest number of shots on my team. So while I think Harris is going to end up being a very good player, I think superstardom is out of reach.

And I don't think you pass up a chance to win a championship when your star is already 30 (and is shaky at crunch time to start with). Now's the time for Dallas, and Kidd makes that team hella-scary. I put it this way a friend earlier: in a playoff series against the Spurs, would you rather rely on Dirk to create his own offense against Bruce Bowen, or have everyone on the team--including Dirk--get tons of open shots with Kidd? I like the latter a lot better. The only problem I see is that Kidd isn't the defensive player he once was, Harris makes for a better defensive matchup against Nash & Parker, but I think Kidd's superior offense, rebounding and leadership (he's one of the few players I've ever seen Kobe defer to, so that tells you something about the respect Kidd commands around the league as a floor general) more than offset that.

2. If Portland ends up with Harris....holy shit. I mean, holy shit is that team going to be good. I like Travis Outlaw a lot, but Harris is way ahead of him (not to mention that Outlaw can be replaced at least adequately with Martell Webster & James Jones, while Portland could really use another good ballhandling guard like Harris). That gives you the big guard/little guard setup that San Antonio has with Ginobili-Parker so that even if Roy is your quasi-PG and Harris your quasi-SG, you can switch them defensively. Lining up with Roy-Harris-Webster-Aldridge-Oden? Wow. That's formidable. And all under 25.

3. As for New Jersey...ah, who cares. I guess if I were them I'd be looking for the *one best player* I could find (including what I could get with a draft pick)--I don't really care about getting a million mediocre players, I just want one really good one. Travis Outlaw is a young, exciting player with some upside left, but I don't know if it's enough to make this deal. The rest of these guys--Stackhouse, Frye, Jack, Diop--are nothing, those are replacement level players available every year.

4. I just pray the Lakers stay far, far away from this discussion. Kidd would be a great short term addition to any team, even at his advanced age, but the future--like, the very near future--is insanely bright for the Lakers and I don't see any reason to mess around with it.

I especially don't want any part of it if Jordan Farmar is included in the deal, which he'd probably have to be. You heard it here first: Farmar is about to blow up. He has great athleticism, great handles, he's a good passer, an active defender, and he turned himself from a bricklayer into a deadly shooter in one year's time. I feel about him the way I did about Andrew last January--he's one year away. I'll predict Farmar's 2008-2009 line as 15-5-5 with great shooting percentages and lots of 3s & steals. He could probably do that now, he's just at that stage where he's not sure what he's capable of. He doesn't come into the arena every night expecting to score 15+ points. You know that hoary old cliche "he doesn't know how good he is"? Well, it's spot on in Farmar's case, just like it was Andrew's a year ago. He's playing with so much confidence right now, he's just about to turn the corner into "15 ppg guy"...but he's not quite there yet.

So I don't really want to mortgage a great future for a shot with J-Kidd. True, Kobe's getting up there too, but he's still in great shape, he's got at least 3-4 more years left at an elite level, and with Bynum and Farmar coming on like runaway freight trains, I just don't see any reason to make a move. Let Duncan, Nash, Dirk, KG, and the Pistons' crew keep getting older, sit tight, and you (and Portland, with or without Harris) are in the driver's seat by 2010.