FRESHMAN/SOPHOMORE

So I watched the godawful freshman/sophomore all-star game Friday night, it didn't tell me anything I didn't already know, but it did remind me of a bunch of thoughts I've been having on these two classes of players.

1. I think Brandon Roy is hands-down the best player in this group, he's already right on the edge of superstardom. He's just so calm, cool and collected out there, super smooth, highly skilled, has a great understanding of the game, and is the unquestioned leader on a team with one of the brightest futures in the NBA. Since December 1, he's averaging about 21-5-6 with a sparkling 1.8 turnovers per. The only thing he can't really do yet is shoot the three, but he has a real nice stroke, I think that'll come.

Not only do I think Roy is the best player right now, in a walk, I also think he's the guy you'd take if you were building a franchise. Kevin Durant and Rudy Gay, among others, are loaded with potential, but Roy can and will get better too.

2. Next up are a group of players I like immensely: Durant, Gay and Al Horford.

I'm still super high on Kevin Durant despite his less-than-spectacular rookie season. He's playing too hesitantly, shooting way too many fallaway jumpers, that's something he'll learn to get away from in time. Watching him in the rookie-sophomore game reminded me of how much Durant can do on the court, things I just haven't seen out of him so far in Seattle. He can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, he can rebound, he has outstanding court vision, and he's an excellent finisher on the break. I think he's one of those guys who--like Rudy Gay--will see a massive leap forward in his second season. He just needs to get a little more comfortable out there, stop thinking so much and just let it fly.

Man, I bet Houston regrets that Rudy Gay-Shane Battier deal (as predicted here, even though I was admittedly lukewarm on Gay). Battier's a nice solid player, but Gay is already an excellent second year player and has a massive ceiling. Gay has Lebron-like athleticism, a top 5 athlete in the entire league, and now he's developed a sweet jumper to go along with it. He's averaging 20-6-2 on the year and is shooting an excellent .469 from the floor and .390 from three (on almost 5 attempts per game). He's also chipping in defensively with 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks. And he's 21 years old--the sky is the limit with this dude.

Al Horford is my final guy in this second tier, I'm really starting to love his game. He's a throwback PF, a Larry Nance/Horace Grant type who'll get you 15 points, 11 boards and play tough defense--that's a valuable player to have. He has some soft, soft hands, very nice athleticism, and a good handle on the game. He's doing great in the hustle stats, averaging 10 boards with a block and steal per game. His offense has been a little slow coming, he's averaging 9 on just .472 shooting, but I think it'll come for him. He has some nice post moves and a soft touch around the rim. I'm not sure he'll ever be big time, the way Durant and Gay probably will, but I think he's a safe bet as a 10-year solid starter/minor star.

3. The rest of the sophomore class

You know I've been high on Jordan Farmar for a while now, and tonight's game really illustrated some things I love about him. He was a dynamo out there, that high energy all-star game point guard that runs the floor, sees the court and makes things happen. He had a ton of great passes and a ton of steals, he just has an understanding of the game that's far superior to his classmates. I think he's easily the best PG in either class, with Mike Conley a distant second (but give it time). Throw in outstanding athleticim, tough defense and lights out shooting and I think you're looking at a very solid 15 & 8 PG in the future, with possibly an even higher ceiling than that.

I'm cooling a bit on LaMarcus Aldridge. He can score, for sure, but he doesn't do much else and he's pretty goddamn soft for a big man (just 7.4 boards per game in 34 minutes for a 6'11 PF?). That'll obviously be mitigated by the arrival of Greg Oden next year, but I do think it limits his upside to something short of stardom.

Remember this name, folks: Thabo Sefalosha. I was sounding the horn on him last year, but Scott Skiles kept him buried on the bench. Now that he's worked his way into the starting lineup, he's averaging about 12-6-3 with 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks in 17 starts. Thabo is a silky smooth 6'5 athlete who can really handle the ball, defends like a future all-defensive team player (his length and quickness really bothered Dwyane Wade Thursday night), and has a sweet little midrange game. This is his first real game experience, so I feel like he's just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's 23 now, I think he's going to be huge for the Bulls--in fact, with his emergence, I wouldn't be at all shocked if they moved Ben Gordon or Luol Deng this summer for some post scoring.

4. The rest of the rookie class

I think New Jersey may have gotten the steal of the draft with their 6'10 jumping jack Sean Williams. He's only averaging about 8 & 6, but he just oozes potential. He's only 21 and didn't play organized basketball until he was 15. Yet his game is more than just raw athleticism, he actually has some decent skills to go along with his crazy hops and quickness. This guy's a keeper.

A player who's really starting to come on lately is Thaddeus Young, a 6'8 small forward in Philly. He recently earned his way into the starting lineup and has responded with 11 & 6 and is shooting .571. Young is extremely athletic and is a great finisher around the rim (unlike most rookie small forwards). He's only 19, having played just one year at Georgia Tech, so this is someone to really keep an eye on, he could be a big timer.

Rodney Stuckey from Detroit is looking like another draft steal in this potentially monstrous class. He looked good from the start after coming back from injury, but he did struggle a bit with his outside shot. But in the last 6 games, he's averaging an excellent 11-2-4 in just 21 minutes per game and is shooting a very respectable .491. He's an outstanding penetrator and solid passer, and he just doesn't turn the ball over a lot (2.5 assists to 1.0 turnovers per game so far this season). I like this guy more and more every time I see him.

Yi Jianlian could end up being one of the real prizes of this class. At just 20, he's averaging a respectable 10 & 6. He's more athletic than anyone envisioned, and he has a smooooth jumper for a big man. I'm not sure you want to play him at PF without a true center, but he's a nice prospect as a combo forward.

Then finally, we have Al Thornton, the combo forward for the Clippers. He's coming on in a big way right now, averaging 17 & 6 in 8 February games, but the only thing I'd caution is that Thornton is 24 year olds and played 4 years of college ball, he should be better than his draft class right now. He's definitely athletic as hell and he has some skills, but he's very sporadic shooting the ball, a real all-or-nothing guy. Sometimes those kind of players develop more consistency and pan out, sometimes they're Tim Thomas. We'll see what happens--but like with Thomas, I think a player with Thornton's size and athleticism should be playing around the rim more rather than shooting a million jumpers. At least it's more midrange stuff with Thornton as opposed to launching a ton of threes.

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So what about Kobe? Man. Just...man. What a rollercoaster ride this season has been for the Lakers. They start out kicking ass, then Bynum goes down. Then they look like they're going to immediately play their way out of a playoff spot, and then the Gasol trade happens. They start kicking major ass again, and boom, Kobe might be (probably?) looking at surgery on his torn pinkie ligament and six weeks of rehab. Arrgh.

I'm just getting the feeling more and more that this isn't the Lakers year to win a championship. I was lukewarm on their chances to start with (on the assumption that the very young Andrew Bynum wouldn't be back to 100% (physically or especially mentally) before the playoffs rolled around--now with Kobe potentially missing much of the stretch run, it's conceivable the Lakers could go into a tailspin and miss the playoffs altogether in the brutal, brutal West (they're 3rd in the conference right now, a game and a half back of first place Phoenix, coming off a 7-2 road trip...and they're still only 3 friggin' games ahead of #9 Houston. Meanwhile they're 12 games ahead of the East's #8, Philadelphia).

Maybe he can play through it, that remains to be seen; but if not, I'm at peace with the idea of him just getting the surgery, the Lakers doing what they can with Kobe & Andrew when they return from injury, and looking ahead to the next 3-4 years of championship contention. It would kill me to throw away that all-too-rare season when your team looks like it might be the best one around, but at least the future's extremely bright, unlike in Phoenix and Dallas (if the Kidd trade goes through).