THE STATE OF THE WEST

The state of the West is strong--but less strong than it was before Dirk Nowitzi went down with an injury that will greatly endanger once-proud Dallas' chances of making the playoffs. Dallas is currently sitting in the #7 spot in the Western Conference, a game ahead of Golden State and 1.5 games ahead of #9 Denver--in other words, the Mavs are hanging by a thread. Now Dirk is out for a minimum of two weeks, which would leave him 4-5 games in the regular season in a wildly optimisic best case scenario. More likely, he misses the rest of the regular season and possibly even some of the playoffs (which would probably be moot).

I'm pretty bummed. I realize this makes the Lakers job a little easier, but that's not what I want--I want all the Western teams at full power and let's see who can scrap, sweat and bleed their way to the top of the heap. To be fair, Dallas was one of the lesser contenders--they still haven't beaten a +.500 team since the Jason Kidd trade--but I for one still hadn't counted them out.

But now I have. I don't see how they can hold off Golden State and Denver, they're just not a very good team without Nowitzki. I'm sure Avery Johnson will get them to play their asses off the rest of the way and maybe Dirk's absence will allow them to run more and better take advantage of Jason Kidd's talents--but we're talking about two talented teams behind them. I'll be shocked (and very disappointed) if Golden State ends up the odd man out, but I'm pretty sure they won't be. And if Denver doesn't make up the ground on Dallas now, I think they should fire George Karl, disband the roster completely and start over.

So what about everyone else?

I don't even know who I'd make the favorite to win the conference, to be perfectly honest. I'm standing by my assertion that the Lakers will not win it unless Andrew Bynum can come back and be healthy enough to get 32 minutes and 12 & 10. The Lakers are a very bad defensive team without Bynum, pretty solid with him--it's a big difference, especially against the strong offensive teams that'll be in the Western Conference playoffs.

And every bit of information on Bynum in the last month has been negative. Not horribly negative, but that return date conspicuously keeps getting pushed farther and farther back--now we're hoping he'll be ready for the start of the playoffs. As I've posted about before, when Bynum does return, he's not going to be the dominant force he was when he left. He doesn't have 5 years of stardom to draw on, he has about 2 months. Not only does he have to learn to trust his knee again, not only does he have to get in playoff-basketball condition (I mean, can he run the floor 30+ minutes against Golden State?), not only does he have to get his touch down on his shot and timing down on his block attempts--he also has to learn to integrate smoothly with Pau Gasol. That's a lot. That's not going to be super smooth, and I doubt it'll all happen until the 2nd or 3rd round if at all. And that's assuming he's back in the lineup on game one of series one, which is a huge question mark right now. Trust me, don't go putting your life savings on the Lakers right now, this team needs a lot to happen.

FWIW, Vegas is a lot more optimistic about either the return of Bynum or the Lakers' ability to win the conference without Bynum at 100%, as they have LA as a solid favorite in the West at 11-10--so almost 50/50 to make it to the NBA Finals. I don't see it that way.

So ignoring the gigantic wild card that is the Lakers, who's my favorite right now?

1. Phoenix

Honest to god, I think it's Phoenix. After a horrid start with Shaq, the Suns are back to playing great basketball. Unusual basketball, a different kind of basketball, but great basketball. Don't get me wrong, they can still score a ton, they had been over 110 in 8 of their last 9 games before a 110-105 loss to Detroit last night. But they just don't look anything like the old Suns, with Marion running in the open floor, guys like James Jones and Tim Thomas rifling up threes, etc. They still have their bread-and-butter standby, the unstoppable pick-and-roll with Nash & Amare--Amare is averaging 28.5 over the last month and is the MVP of this team. You heard me. The Suns have one unstoppable offensive weapon on this team--Amare--and if they didn't have him, they'd actually be a pretty easy team to defend.

But let's not get too ahead of ourselves here, the Suns still have a lot to prove. They've benefitted from a favorable schedule during their recent success, they have no depth, they have poor perimeter shooting which allows good teams to sag down on Amare & Shaq, and it remains to be seen whether Shaq's health and conditioning level can stand up to a brutal and long playoff run. This isn't the perfect team....but neither is anyone else in the West.

2. New Orleans

I was a doubter for a long time, but they've broken me down, I've given in. The Hornets have a lot of talent, a lot of athleticism, an outstanding leader in Chris Paul, and now a little bit of depth with the addition of the very underrated Bonzi Wells and the emergence of rookie Julian Wright (reminder: I love this guy).

They have more balance than probably any of the other Western contenders, ranking 6th in points-per-possession and 5th in points-allowed-per-possession. They can score, and they can stop you from scoring, and--thanks to the greatness of Chris Paul--they just don't make a lot of mistakes and beat themselves.

BTW, in 17 games since the all-star break, Chris Paul is averaging:

24.4 ppg
3.8 rpg
12.0 apg
2.3 to (a 5.2 assist-to-TO ratio)
3.1 steals
.558 FG% (!)
.472 3PT FG% (!!)

Unreal. And he's only 22. I still think everyone in the league takes Kobe or Lebron with the first pick if they're heading into this year's playoffs, but if Paul wins the MVP--I won't complain.

My sense, and the sense of most basketball people, was that this team was always a year or two away. I don't think that anymore, I think they have a legitimate chance to win this whole thing. They have a lot of strengths, not many weaknesses, and they have Chris Paul and the other teams don't.

3. San Antonio

I know. I know. I know they've played like crap lately, I know they can't beat good teams, I know they can't win on the road, I know all of that. But I'm not counting these guys out until they're lieing on the floor gasping and bloodied. And decapitated (so forget the gasping). I'm not the only one either, Vegas has the Spurs at 3-1 to win the West, so they're still giving these crafty old fuckers a 25% chance of making it to the finals (thereby destroying all the good momentum the NBA has built up this year).

Not much to say about this team, you know what they can do and what they can't do. They play moderately efficient offense, they play killer defense, they get away with a million fouls per game (and draw another bunch of bogus calls) because they're smart, crafty, and the NBA game is called largely on reputation. I will be praying to the basketball gods to deliver us from a Spurs championship in each series they play. I don't think they can do it this year, I suspect like a lot of people do that their age is finally catching up with them, but I'm sure as hell not counting any chickens. If they get a favorable run of matchups, watch out.

4. Utah

Utah is the only other team that I think can win the conference. I love Golden State and those tough, undersized bastards, and I think they could easily pull another huge upset on certain big boys, but I don't think they can get the right matchups to make it all the way through. And they may be looking at a one-and-done if the current standings hold with LA at #1 and GS at #8. The Lakers played them even in a home-and-home without Bynum and Gasol, I don't think Golden State can take down LA with one or both of them back.

But as for Utah...they're a funny team, they're fantastic at home (30-4) and surprisingly poor on the road (16-21). Like the Lakers, they're an excellent offensive team and mediocre defensive team. They have a lot of size, athleticism and depth, but they're also prone to periods of dumb play where they turn the ball over a lot. It's hard to get a read on them.

But Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are proven playoff superstars, I wouldn't want to face this team in a 7-game series. Since trading for Kyle Korver, a much needed shooter, Utah has been a very tough beat, and I expect them to hang tight with anyone in the conference. Again, if things break right, I could conceivably see Utah being the team that squeaks out of the pack.

So what about Houston? I had my doubts for every single game of that astonishing, incredible, amazing 22-game streak, and I think that--finally--we're seeing them come back to earth with 3 ugly losses in their last 5 games (albeit to excellent teams--Boston, New Orleans and Phoenix). Vegas tellingly has them at 20-1 to win the West, with Dallas & Golden State both ahead of them at 15-1. I look at their roster and just can't see how that talent can translate into winning out in the most brutal conference playoff run in NBA history. I'm rooting for them to do well, but I increasingly think that they're a first round exit.