APRIL, MAY AND JUNE MADNESS

The real NBA season starts tomorrow with game one of four different series, and I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve. The first round of the NBA playoffs is usually like the first round of the NCAA tournament--there might be an upset here and there, but the higher seeded team usually wins. But man, this year, especially in the West, it's just a total crapshoot.

I think the East will play to form with Boston and Detroit cruising (even though the Pistons have a tough, gritty Philly team that's been playing great since the all-star break, I just don't see Detroit struggling to win this one), and the Magic stomping on a downward-spiraling Toronto. That leaves a toss-up between Cleveland and Washington for the right to get hammered by Boston in the second round. I guess I'll take Cleveland here, but they're an ugly team and could easily be ripe for the plucking--with or without Gilbert Arenas making a huge contribution.

But the West is where all the action is, and I frankly have no idea what's going to happen in these series. The only upset that would surprise me in the least would be Denver over the Lakers, the other three are practically coin flips.

Here's how I see things:

LAKERS-NUGGETS

It's not that Denver's an easy matchup--they aren't. At all. But you have to pick your poison in the superstacked west, and this is the team I wanted the Lakers to play. I think LA will win, but I don't think it (or any other series) will be a walkover. My only real worry is who guards Iverson, but I think LA can and will still take them with Iverson putting up big numbers. Iverson can still light up the scoreboard with the best of 'em, but the Lakers will get any shot they want all series along against the Nuggets' godawul defense.

(BTW, this is one of many teams the Lakers would destroy if they had Andrew Bynum back; that'd allow LA to put Bynum on Camby (win), Gasol on Kenyon Martin (win), and Lamar Odom on Carmelo (loss, but it's a hell of a lot better than putting Vladimir Radmanovic or Luke Walton on him).

NEW ORLEANS-DALLAS

What an awesome first round series this is going to be. After starting out terribly after the Kidd trade, Dallas has settled down a bit and has been playing good ball. Not great ball, but good, and they're taking more advantage of Kidd's skills than they were earlier on. Dallas just beat New Orleans last night when the Hornets were going all out to knock Dallas into the 8th spot and get Denver as a first round matchup. And then you have the Hornets as this group of young and unproven players going up against one of the most battled-tested teams in the league.

I still think New Orleans is going to win this series. Vegas has them as a favorite, albeit a small one (about 58% to win). The teams split the season series, so that's more or less a wash. I guess I just think that people are underrating the Hornets' talent. Not Chris Paul, of course everyone sees his genius, but David West, Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic, Bonzi Wells and Jannero Pargo (hey, he can play) off the bench, Julian Wright as a future superstar and solid contributor for now--this team has some serious talent. Some people say they might be a year away, and they might be, but I'm going with CP3 and New Orleans here over a Dallas team that's well below where they've been the last few years.

PHOENIX-SAN ANTONIO

Holy crap, what a gift from the basketball gods. Two heavyweights who utterly despise each other duking it out in the first friggin round! It's unbelievable. Anyone with a sense of justice has to be rooting for Phoenix after David Stern stepped in last year and handed San Antonio that series on a silver platter by suspending Amare in one of the all-time most bogus sports commissioner moves.

San Antonio won't go down easy, they're tough as nails. They're also old and creaky, but they might have just enough to get a last championship run in if they can stay perfectly healthy throughout. San Antonio will have its usual problems getting killed by Amare and Nash, but they'll also have their usual strengths: Tony Parker making absolute mincemeat out of Nash on the other end, and the old pro Duncan getting Amare into foul trouble--and getting under Amare's skin. At least this year Phoenix has two big men who can take on Duncan defensively, and I think that's one of the main reasons they did the Shaq trade.

So who do I have here? Well, I'm praying for Phoenix to take out these buttwipes once and for all. But I don't think they're going to do it--I'll predict San Antonio in an epic 7-gamer. God, I hope I'm wrong.

HOUSTON-UTAH

No real strong feelings here, I sorta like both these teams. I guess I'd rather the Lakers play Houston in the next round, but Utah wouldn't be a terrible matchup either.

Houston has struggled quite a bit since the winning streak ended, but they did kill Phoenix in a crucial game last week, so I'm not sure what to think about them. I do know that Utah is a very solid team and extremely hard to beat at home (37-4 on the year)--and they have home court advantage. Vegas has Utah at about 70% to win, and I'm going to take them too. Houston certainly proved me wrong when I predicted they'd immediately fall out of the playoff race after Yao's injury; they're a tough, energetic, smart team, but I just don't think they have the horses to beat a solid club like Utah 4 times.

So there it is, take it for what it's worth--4 predictions I feel good about, 4 coin tosses. Let the battles begin.