GETTING DOWN TO THE WIRE

With around 5 games left in the regular season, things are just as wacky as ever in the wackiest season in recent sports memory.

EASTERN CONFERNCE

The Eastern Conference is more or less set, with only some jockeying between Washington, Philadelphia and Toronto for the 5-6-7 spots left. A potential Cleveland-Washington first round series could be intriguing--Cleveland has been stinking up the joint lately, and Washington now has super-wildcard Gilbert Arenas back. Of course the Wizards haven't been setting the world on fire lately either, Arenas has only been able to play 20 minutes per in his first two games before having to rest on the 2nd game of a back-to-back, and now Antawn Jamison has been out the last couple games with a shoulder injury (although he's expected back tonight).

But if those two can get healthy, I think it could be a really tough series for Cleveland. The big Ben Wallace trade probably did make them a little better, but they're an awkward, weird team with a bunch of players of pretty much equal talent about whom I don't think coach Mike Brown has solidified his feelings. It's crunchtime in a playoff game, do you go with Delonte West or Daniel Gibson? Joe Smith or Anderson Varejao? Wally Sczerbiak or Devin Brown or Sasha Pavlovic? I don't know, and I don't really think Brown knows either.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Western Conference, by contrast, is completely un-set, with the #1 seed up for grabs, two division championships (and guaranteed top 4 seeds) up for grabs, and the last playoff spot up for grabs. The Lakers, for example, could very realistically finish anywhere from the #1 seed to the #6 seed--with only 4 games left! Insanity.

OK, let's talk #1 seed. I think New Orleans will hold off San Antonio's fast and furious charge. New Orleans has a one game lead, they have an easier schedule over the final 5 games, and they have a better division and conference record (the next tie-breakers after head-to-head, which was a 2-2 split for these teams). But they each still have games left with the Lakers, so things could change pretty quickly. If the Lakers can manage to win out (the other 2 games are walkovers, if there's any such thing for a team with all the mental focus of an ADHD-afflicted puppy), they still have a good chance of grabbing the 1 seed.

But then the Lakers could still conceivably lose the division to Phoenix and finish outside of the top 4 seeds. It's unlikely, the Lakers have a game lead and win on the head-to-head tiebreaker, but it'll happen if they drop those 2 games (or choke in one of the "walkovers") and Phoenix wins out.

So I think the top 4 seeds will be New Orleans, San Antonio, Los Angeles, and other division winner Utah, but a hell of a lot can happen over these last 7 days of the regular season.

That would leave Houston and Phoenix fighting it out for the 5 & 6 seeds, which means...what? It means that the 3 and 4 seeds (currently the Lakers & Utah) could either be playing a Yao-less Houston who's only 6-5 since their winning streak ended, losing to every good team they've played--or you get Phoenix, who everyone in the conference is afraid to play. That's a big difference. To put it in perspective, Vegas has Houston at 15-1 to win the conference; Phoenix is at 4-1, ahead of everyone except the Lakers and Spurs.

Then you have Dallas, who looks like they've solidified the 7 seed. I don't think this team can win the conference (Vegas has them at 10-1), but it's definitely not a team I want to play in the first friggin' round of the playoffs. I'm hoping the Lakers get the 3 seed and get a 6 seeded Houston, avoiding that Phoenix/Dallas trap at the 5 & 7 seeds (this would assume Phoenix overtakes Houston's half-game lead for the 5 spot, which I think they will). I think the Lakers can beat Dallas, don't get me wrong, but each of their four games against the Mavs this year has been an all-out war. Even if they win the series, I think it'll take a lot out of them.

The Mavs still aren't the same team they've been the last couple of years, but I think they're starting to figure out how to get more value out of Jason Kidd; in the last game against the Lakers, they ran a heck of a lot more than I've seen them do since the Nash era. And they've managed to finally beat some good teams, which they were struggling to do since the trade, knocking off their archnemesis Golden State and notching a very solid win at Phoenix. I don't care who you are in the Western Conference, I'd be real leery of a playoff series with these guys.

Finally, we have Denver and Golden State, a couple of "score first, worry about defense later" doppelgangers, shooting it out for the final playoff spot. They're dead even, with an epic battle tomorrow (@ GS) that will probably (but not definitely) decide which one's in. Everyone in the conference is praying it's Denver since nobody, but nobody, wants to go up against Golden State in a playoff series, but I personally hope it's the Warriors. Even though the Lakers still have a shot at the 1 seed and would have to play in that nightmare matchup, I just admire how the Warriors go about their business. Not just because they run up and down the floor and hoist up shots and do cool stuff, although that's a lot of it. But I also like how tough they are, everyone always having to defend bigger and stronger players (which NBA players hate doing), and never complaining about it. They might not be a great defensive team, but it's certainly not for lack of effort; the aptly-named Warriors bust their asses out there in each and every game.

I think New Orleans, San Antonio or the Lakers would take 'em, but I wouldn't bet my life against another stunning upset. And the Warriors would make any of those teams have to work and sweat to make it through to the next round. Denver, on the other hand, I think would be easy fodder for any of the top teams. They and Houston are my dream first round matchups, the only two teams out of the eight possibilities who I know the Lakers can beat with or without Andrew Bynum.

It's amazing that there's still so much up in the air with just a handful of games left, I can't ever remember a season even remotely like this one. And once those games are finished and the playoff spots are finally determined, that's when the real wackiness starts. Have you ever seen 4 first round playoff series where you weren't positive about any of them? Here are the current matchups, tell me which one of these you'd bet your house on:

New Orleans-Golden State
San Antonio-Dallas
Lakers-Phoenix
Utah-Houston