THIS IS IT

Lakers-Celtics, here again after all these years. I feel like pulling out a skinny tie and watching super realistic family sitcoms like Growing Pains, specifically the episode where Mike turns down a coke orgy with two hot chicks because he's not that kind of boy.

These teams last met in the NBA Finals in 1987, a year when the stock market tanked and there was trouble in the middle east--but far more innocently than now. At least global warming hadn't been invented yet, and pollutants were belched into the atmosphere with cheerful impunity. It was an age of maturation and upheaval, and Hollywood responded with edgy, challenging fare like "Secret Of My Success", which proved once and for all what we suspected all along: a 22-year-old with no business experience is more than capable of running a giant multinational corporation, as long as he's pure of heart.

Oh, and on other major event took place in 1987: the birth of one Andrew Bynum in Plainsboro, New Jersey. No one would have suspected then that this little baby--or anyone in Plainsboro, New Jersey, really--would one day grow up to be important, but this little ball of freaky genetics turned out to be The Man Who Saved The Laker Franchise. It was his play in the early going of this season that turned the franchise around, that made them a legitimate championship contender, that pacified a Kobe who was on the verge of blowing up the organization. With his injury he's become the forgotten man, but not around these parts. Thank you, 1987, for your many wondrous gifts.

So on to...

THE FINALS

I said 3 months ago the Lakers wouldn't win the championship, and yet I've predicted they'd win each individual series--and I'm not changing it up now. I'm unhappy about not having home court, but I still think the Lakers' superior athleticism and depth pulls them through in the end. I wouldn't bet my life savings on it or anything, but I do think the Lakers are the very slightly better team.

THE MATCHUPS

The Big Fellas

Phil Jackson says LA is going to start out with Pau Gasol on Kevin Garnett and Lamar Odom on Kendrick Perkins, I don't know if that's going to work. I can see what he's thinking, Gasol's size might give Garnett problems on the inside and force him to be a jumpshooter (and he's often more than happy to be taken away from the basket, one of his few flaws). Gasol is truly a terrible team defender, but he's not half-bad staying on his man one-on-one...but that's in the post, where his man usually operates. I don't think Gasol can stay with Garnett when he gets the ball at the high post and then takes it to the basket--in fact, I think that's a great way to get Gasol into foul trouble, which would be disastrous for the Lakers (more on that later).

So I suspect the Lakers will end up with Odom on Garnett, and I'm plenty comfortable with that. Odom struggles against the big bruising PFs sometimes, but not so much with the quicker finesse guys. I think Odom will take away what Garnett wants to do (jumpers and drives to the bucket), and force him to do what he doesn't want to do (post up and bang around inside). But that doesn't mean KG can't do it; I think the level of success he achieves here will be key in determining the winner of the series.

I like the matchups on the other end (Perkins defending Gasol, KG defending Odom), but I don't love them. I think Garnett can take Odom out of his game, I expect Odom to struggle a little on offense in this series--but I think Gasol can hurt Perkins. Perkins is definitely a really good defender, bordering on great (his performance on Gasol might determine that question for me), but I don't think he can deal with Gasol's length, quickness and skill level. Perkins was great against the big men of Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit, but none of them have a Pau Gasol. I don't think it's a slam dunk that Gasol will score a lot on Perkins, but I think he will. In any event, it's another of those key matchups that'll determine the winner--if the Lakers don't get a lot from Gasol, I don't think they can win.

The Little Fellas

Let's start with the PGs, Fisher/Farmar vs. Rajon Rondo. I like Rondo a lot, I think he has a ton of potential and will ultimately be a great PG in this league--but he's not there yet. He took a huge step backwards in the Pistons series, playing way too tentatively, passing up shots, and letting the Pistons play off him and use 5 defenders on the other 4 Celtics. If that happens again, I feel really good about the Lakers chances. But I'm sure Doc Rivers and his staff have been all over Rondo the last week, and that he'll come out in game one and try to make himself a factor.

But it's not all just about trying, you have to make the plays before the defense begins to respect you. The Lakers will play him like they did Tony Parker, sagging way off and daring him to take the jumper. If he makes a few of them, I'll start to worry. If he misses, I'll start to smile. If he can't make the Lakers play him honest, I think they can do a solid job on the Big 3 and Perkins.

So that leaves Kobe & Radmanovic/Walton/Ariza against Allen & Pierce (with some help from James Posey). I know Pierce had a really nice defensive series against the Pistons, but this is Kobe Bryant--it's different. If he ends up on Kobe, I don't think we'll be hearing every 10 minutes about his "underrated defense" like we did in the previous series, you know what I mean?

But the Celtics usually put Ray Allen on Kobe--the result won't be any different. You can't stop Kobe with one man (look what he did to Bruce friggin' Bowen) you have to defend him with your entire team, which makes opportunities available to Kobe's teammates. So even if Perkins can handle Gasol and KG can handle Odom, that's not the end of it. Kobe is playing some of the best basketball of his career right now, his shot is on, he's not forcing bad shots and tough passes, he's just been on fire. Boston is a great defensive team, but so was San Antonio and they couldn't slow him down either. I fully expect Kobe to dominate the series offensively.

So what about Pierce and Allen? I have to admit, I'm a little nervous about these two. For one thing, Kobe can only take one of 'em. LA is reportedly going to start out with Kobe on Ray Allen, with Radmanovic on Pierce, but I don't think that will last. Pierce is the better offensive player, and Kobe has a habit of laying off his man to freelance and try to create turnovers. That's fine if you're guarding Ronnie Brewer, but not if it's Ray Allen. Allen stunk so unbelievably bad in the early going of the Pistons series, but he really bounced back in those last couple games.

Radmanovic is a lot like Gasol--he's a terrible, terrible team defender, but he's decent at sticking with his man and forcing tough shots. I much prefer Paul Pierce as a shooter than as a post player, and I'm sure that's Phil Jackson's thinking on starting the bigger Radmanovic on him. But Pierce can do a lot of things, he can shoot, he can post, and he can drive, and that's an almost impossible cover for Vladdy. I predict Phil will have to switch Kobe on to Pierce after the first game or two--if I'm wrong and Radmanovic does an adequate job on Pierce, I think Boston's in big trouble.

The Lakers have a wild card on the bench in Trevor Ariza, the athletic defensive ace who is finally playing again after losing four months to injury, but who the hell knows if he's ready to play crunch time minutes in the NBA Finals. It sure would help if he could get out there and handle Pierce/Allen for 10-15-20 minutes, but I think that's asking a lot of a guy who hasn't gone past 6 (garbage time) minutes in the handful of games he's played in since his return. So I guess I think one of Pierce/Allen is going to hurt the Lakers consistently, whichever one Kobe isn't on.

As for the rest of the bench, I think the Lakers have a huge advantage. Boston's guys--James Posey, Eddie House, Leon Powe, Glenn Davis--are underrated, especially Posey who I expect to be a big factor in this series and who could play crunch time minutes defensively against Kobe. I also feel like Posey has never missed an open three against the Lakers in his NBA career--and if there's one thing the Lakers consistently lapse on defensively, it's giving up open threes.

But the Lakers bench has been a huge strength all year, and they were instrumental in taking down San Antonio. I love the idea of playing Sasha Vujacic on Ray Allen down the stretch in that 3-guard lineup Phil likes to go with in the 4th quarter. In addition to being one of the true money shooters in the league, Sasha has also made a quantum leap in his defense and has now made himself a real pest on that end. I don't want him checking Dwyane Wade on the perimeter or anything, but he's excellent at sticking tight on shooters. He'll be huge in this series.

I also like Jordan Farmar here, I think he can come in and shut down Rondo while also pushing him on the offensive end. Farmar struggled against Utah, but his confidence came raging back against San Antonio. Farmar isn't great against bigger, tougher PGs like Deron Williams, but he thrives on both ends against the quick little guys like Tony Parker and Rondo.

I do think Boston's big men--Powe, Davis--might be able to do some damage when Walton and Turiaf are out there, but I don't expect Luke & Ronny to get a ton of PT. Walton will play about 15 minutes per, Turiaf will play only as needed to spell Gasol.

Which leads me to another key to this series: Gasol staying out of foul trouble. If he's on Garnett, I think that could spell trouble and might force Phil to switch Gasol onto Perkins, who has a pretty rudimentary offensive game. I'm not saying Gasol will completely shut him down, especially if Perkins plays like he did in that one Pistons game--but I don't think he'll get Gasol in foul trouble, and that's the key to Lakers offensive success. On the contary, I think it might be Perkins who struggles to stay on the floor while trying to handle Gasol. Powe and Davis are good, solid players, but they're both a huge decline defensively from Perkins, I think Gasol would light up either of them like a christmas tree.

So I guess that's about it. The keys as I see them are:

1. Can KG score in the post?
2. Can Gasol stay out of foul trouble? Can Perkins?
3. Can Rondo force the Lakers to respect him as an offensive threat?
4. Can Radmanovic/Walton handle Pierce? If not, can LA put Kobe on him and still defend Allen?
5. Can Pierce/Allen at least keep Kobe from really going off?
6. If the Celtics help out Pierce/Allen on Kobe, can the other Lakers make them pay?
7. What will Lamar Odom do in this series on both ends of the floor?

Sorry about the verbosity, but my brain is bursting with thoughts about this series. Lakers-Celtics, the dream matchup (c'mon, even if you hate one or both, you have to admit it's pretty cool).

This series is so bright, I gotta wear shades...