GAMES 1

I think there were a lot of similarities between the first games of each series. Detroit and LA played sloppy and missed a lot of shots they usually make, and each got themselves into a big hole in the third quarter and spent the rest of the game trying to claw their way back. But there were two major differences:

1. LA was at home

The Lakers had a hell of a lot more riding on the game; losing game one at home would have put them in a giant hole, while the Pistons losing on the road only means they have 3 more chances to steal home court advantage instead of 4--given that you take care of business at home, of course.

2. LA has Kobe

Detroit came out in the third quarter and played terrible basketball, missing easy shots, turning the ball over like crazy, and playing lax defense. The Lakers did the same, and both teams fell behind by double digits. Then they both came storming back to cut the lead down to 5 or so, but the Pistons couldn't close the deal and the Lakers did.

Detroit just never had a go-to guy down the stretch. Rasheed wasn't feeling it in the post, missing shots that he's usually money on, Hamilton was ice cold, and Chauncey was stiff and had trouble getting into the flow of the offense all game long. You could see the Pistons' uncertainty at crunch time, they had like 5 straight crucial possessions where they seemed unsure of what they wanted to do offensively. That's what happens when you're a jumpshooting team and your big 3 shooters are all cold at the same time.

Meanwhile the Lakers had no such uncertainty. The ball went to Kobe, and Kobe either scored or drew the defense and dished off to a teammate. San Antonio played great defense down the stretch, it's just that, like I always say, sometimes you get Kobe'ed--the same way the Lakers damn near got Duncan'ed.

Going forward, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about both teams. I feel like the Pistons can shut down Ray Allen, they almost never get beat by big time shooters and Allen looks completely out of sorts right now anyway--he's averaging 12.5 ppg in 15 playoff games on 38% shooting. Yikes.

So that leaves KG, Pierce and Rondo. I think Rondo's going to continue to be a problem; the Pistons struggle against quick penetrators, and Rondo is becoming one of the better ones in the league. As for Pierce and Garnett, they both had great games Wednesday, but I also thought the Pistons forced them into a lot of tough shots, especially KG. If Garnett is taking a bunch of fadeaway jumpers in the post, I like my chances. He's a good post scorer, not a great one--he's not Rasheed (of course Rasheed isn't 'post-scoring-Rasheed' 75% of the time either).

Meanwhile the Pistons played a really ugly game, with no one playing well other than McDyess and Stuckey. Sure, the Celts' defense had something to do with that, but not everything--I saw a ton of missed shots by the big 4 (Sheed, Rip, Chauncey & Tayshaun) that they usually make, and that spate of turnovers in the third that put them behind the eight ball was completely uncharacteristic of the Pistons.

So the bottom line is that the Pistons played a poor game, with a dinged up/rusty Billups, and they were still only down 6 late in the fourth on the road to a 66-win team that played pretty well. I'd definitely make the Celtics the favorite, but I think Detroit still has a solid chance to pull this thing off.

As for the Spurs-Lakers game, nothing that happened in game one has changed my way of thinking. I think the Lakers will win, but the series is going to be a dogfight from start to finish. I love what the Lakers did to Parker & Ginobili; if they can keep them out of the lane, they'll win the series. I just don't know if they can do that.

Duncan was awesome, he forced the Lakers to break their cardinal rule against double teaming in the post. Luckily all the Spurs' shooters went cold at once, because they were getting some good looks. Ginobili stunk in particular; he may or may not be still dinged up, it's hard to tell if he was hurting or just having a crappy game, but he wasn't the same slashing, driving, defense-destroying force he usually is against the Lakers.

I guess I don't expect Duncan to be that good tomorrow, but I also don't expect Ginobili to be that bad. I think game two will be a lot like game one, both teams struggling a bit on offense as the officials call "Spurball"--i.e., anything goes on defense. I don't know if Kobe can put the team on his back like he did last night, but then maybe Odom and Fisher won't completely blow either. I'll take the Lakers to win it, but I'll be surprised if it's not ugly and close at the end.