PLAYOFF THOUGHTS

HOME COURT

We're 16 games into the conference semifinals and the road team is 1-15, the Pistons getting the solitary win at Orlando in an epic battle. The average margin of victory in the Boston-Cleveland series is 14; in the San Antonio-New Orleans series, it's 17. 7 of the 16 games have been decided by more than 15 points. The line on game 3 of the Utah-Los Angeles series jumped 12 points from game 2, from LA -7 to Utah -5. The line for game 5 (heading back to LA) jumped 10 points from game 4, from Utah -1.5 to LA -8.5--and that's with Kobe at less than 100%.

To sum up, home court advantage is really getting out of hand. When half the games are blowouts between two evenly matched teams, you know you have a problem. I do think teams just play better at home, I don't think it's entirely the officiating, but clearly officiating is the biggest culprit. The Jazz-Lakers series provides the best example. The games at Utah were ugly, physical affairs--Jazz style basketball. I'm not saying the Lakers got screwed on some inconsistent calls, I think the officiating was more or less fair; the games were just called loosely for both teams, and that means Utah's physical style was favored.

Look, I don't think it's an accident that Utah was 37-4 at home (best record in the league) and 17-24 on the road (13th best). They play a style that's not going to win many games when the game is being called tight, and is going to win a lot when it's being called loose. The problem isn't the inconsistency of the tight/loose standard, it's that every game in Utah is called loose, and that's not a coincidence.

The differences between teams at this stage are very, very small, having a game officiated in a certain way makes for a massive advantage that's being reflected in the outcomes and the Vegas lines. I'd normally ask that an officiating crew pick a standard and stick with it, but when that standard is always the one that's beneficial to the home team, you have a problem. I don't think that's the only officiating problem, I also think the home team typically gets a handful of calls that would go the other way in the other city, but that's probably true in every sport.

The NBA needs to do something about this, it's completely out of control. You can't have the home team winning 15 out of 16, you can't have 12 point swings in Vegas, you can't have every other game being a blowout. I stil think these playoffs can be salvaged, but it's been awfully disappointing to date.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Man, that Boston-Cleveland series is brutal, it's damn near unwatchable. Both teams are playing outstanding defense, but the officiating has also been extremely loose (falling in line with my "home team gets the officiating standard it wants" theory above--the problem is that both teams want the same defense-friendly standard that results in fugly basketball). Nobody's going to score a lot of points when you have two good defensive teams who are allowed a high level of contact, not even Lebron, KG, Pierce and Allen.

For me, this series is simple--either the Cavs' role players knock down their shots, or they lose. An opponent can take away a player even as a great as Lebron if they commit enough resources to him, and the only way you can get all those defenders off his back is by having your scrubs make them pay for it. I've seen this a million times with Kobe; Kwame Brown and Smush Parker couldn't make the other team pay for putting all its defensive focus on stopping Kobe; Pau Gasol and Sasha Vujacic are another story. I'd also say that Kobe can deal with that kind of defense better than Lebron, given his superior ballhandling and shooting skills. If you "make Kobe into a jumpshooter", you might catch him cold--or he might bury you. With Lebron, if you sag off him, crowd the lane, and give him the jumper, you have a good chance of holding him down. I think that's the very slight difference between Kobe and Lebron at this stage of Lebron's career--it's just a little easier to take LBJ out of his game than Kobe. Not easy...easier.

Cleveland's scrubs came up big in games 3 and 4 with Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, etc. If they can keep it up, we'll get to see what strategic move Boston makes, and whether that move opens things up for Lebron. But bottom line, with two games left in Boston, they have to be considered a huge favorite.

As for the Pistons-Magic series, I think it's over with or without Billups. I guess you can never truly count Orlando out of any one game, you never know when they're going to pull one of those "13-24 from three" games, but I don't see any way in hell they take 3 straight (with 2 of them at Detroit).

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Spurs-Hornets series could be fantastic if every game wasn't a blowout. The margins of victory have been 19, 18, 11 and 20. Wow. Fun. This potentially could end up great, though, despite what's happened in the first four games. Vegas has this series essentially as a pick 'em. I think most people (including myself) see San Antonio as the better team, but New Orleans has the huge advantage of having 2 of the last 3 games at home.

Can San Antonio win in a place where they got crushed in the first two games? I think they will. Parker and Ginobili have been phenomenal, Tyson Chandler is having trouble containing Duncan without getting into foul trouble, and the Spurs made a great strategy move putting defensive ace Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic (who buried them in games 1 & 2) instead of Chris Paul, who Bowen can't guard anyway. Peja was 5-16 from the floor and 1-4 from three in games 3 & 4, after 17-28 and 7-11 in games 1 & 2. The Spurs are "letting" Paul put up big numbers (by putting Parker on him, who can't guard anyone), but clamping down on everyone else, and it seems to be working...but let's just wait until it works on the road.

As for the Lakers, I think they're sitting somewhat pretty. They lost two heartbreakers in Utah, but at least they played it close on the road instead of getting blown out like most road teams have done in these playoffs. But christ, they had that goddamn game yesterday!! Kobe's back worries me a lot, the Lakers' room for error is razor thin. It doesn't sound like there's any possibility of him missing games, but the Lakers also struggle when he's less than 100%. Here's the problem--when he's dinged up, he turns into a jumpshooter. But the Lakers have plenty of shooters, what they need is a guy who can break down the defense, and only Kobe can do that.

Vegas has the Lakers at around 78% to win it, that sounds about right to me--any higher and I'd jump on a Utah bet. I don't know if they can win in LA, but they have two chances and one or both of those might feature something less than the full Kobe experience.

I think if the officials keep calling games tight in LA, the Lakers will win in 7 (with a solid shot of ending it in game 6, both games in Utah have been close). But if the trend breaks, if a game gets called loose, that's how I see Utah having a chance to pull this thing off. The Lakers are a very good team, but they're pretty soft, especially up front with Gasol, Odom, Radmanovic, and Walton*. Utah is big, physical and tough, they thrive in those free-for-alls. It's funny, teams like that are almost always defensive-minded, but that's not Utah; they're a great offensive team and mediocre on defense. But when the game is physical and the refs are letting a lot of contact go, Utah becomes a pretty good defensive team while still having the toughness and strength to score points.

Count me as confident, but concerned. This series is far from over.

*Andrew Bynum, of course, changes everything on the softness/toughness front. If the Lakers stay healthy next year, I think they can make a run at a 65-70 win season.