EARLY SEASON TRENDS

The Positive

The Lakers are really, really, really good. I know everyone wants to downplay their team's chances when they're clearly quite good, you don't want to let yourself believe, but it's pretty hard to deny that this Lakers team is friggin' loaded. They were already a great offensive team, and I suspected they'd make a big jump in defense with the return of Andrew Bynum--potentially a top 5 defensive center in the league--but I didn't expect the improvement to be quite so dramatic. I guess we'll see if LA can keep up the defensive intensity--and it bears mention that they've played a horrible schedule to date--but so far, so good. If they keep playing like this, and stay healthy, they could make a run at a mid- to high-60s win total.

One underrated contributor to their defensive surge is Trevor Ariza. I said last year that Bynum's obviously more important injury overshadowed what Ariza's loss meant to the team. He gives them much needed athleticism at the wing spot, plus another lockdown defender who can help out Kobe on the perimeter. The Lakers are flat out better with Ariza in the game instead of Lamar Odom, and it's because they already have people who can rebound, score and handle the ball; what they need is an active defender, and Ariza is playing out of his mind right now.

Another guy coming on fast is Jordan Farmar. If he played for practically any other team in the league he'd be averaging about 17 & 8 right now, he's that good. He's a role player on the Lakers, but an extremely important one. Even as good as LA has been in the early going, they've frequently needed the surge of energy Farmar brings to the table.

OK, enough about the Lakers. Other teams looking good are Boston (doy) and Atlanta (wha?). I don't know if Atlanta can keep it up, but they're killing it right now. At 5-0 they're the league's only other undefeated team with the Lakers, and they've notched quality wins @ Orlando, @ New Orleans in a shocker, and home against Toronto & Philly. They're doing it with defense in the early going, giving up just 85.8 points per game (second only to, astonishingly enough, the Lakers). Joe Johnson is continuing his torrid play from last year after they acquired Bibby, averaging 25 ppg on 50+% shooting. Josh Smith is struggling on offense at just 12 ppg, but is the lynchpin of the team's athletic, smothering defense. Of course now he's out for a month, so we'll see what happens to that D while he's gone. Al Horford is going to really need to pick up his game to make up for the loss.

Another group coming out of the gate strong is the 2008 rookie class. Not expected to set the world on fire before the season started, they suddenly have about 10 guys who look fantastic in the early going. Derrick Rose isn't putting up big assist numbers, but 17.7 ppg on .458 shooting is fantastic for a 20-year-old rookie PG. Michael Beasley looks dominant and times and lost at others, but is so far averaging a respectable 16 & 6. OJ Mayo is the real surprise. I thought he'd put up big points (and he is, at 19.3 per), but thought his shooting percentage would be atrocious. But he's at a solid .441 thus far, and shooting a sparkling .455 from the 3-point line. I suspect his shot is going to stop falling at that rate, but he's definitely piqued my interest with his early play. That Rudy Gay-OJ Mayo-Marc Gasol trio isn't a bad core to build around. If Mike Conley ever gets his shit together, Memphis could be an up-and-comer.

Speaking of the younger Gasol brother, the rookie class features a trio of big men putting up solid numbers: Marc Gasol at 10 & 9, Kevin Love earning his way into Minnesota's starting lineup with 10 & 7, and Jason Thompson, an athletic, skilled PF in Sacramento, averaging 11 & 6 in just 21 minutes and looking like a major steal.

But my early prediction for ROY is Rudy Fernandez, who's looking very comfortable in Portland a lot soooner than people thought he'd be. He's averaging a respectable 14-3-2 in just 27 minutes, with sparkling shooting percentages--.464/.424/.941--but I think he's only scratching the surface of what he can do. I expect Portland to go more and more to the Roy-Fernandez backcourt in crunch time, that gives them two big, athletic, and skilled guards who can handle and shoot--that's a tough matchup.

Lastly, some veterans coming out of the gate strong...Bosh is loving having Jermaine O'Neal around to draw defensive attention, he's putting up almost 27 per game (at .537 shooting) in Toronto's first 6 games. Dwyane Wade, as predicted, looks completely healthy and once against physically dominant. He's averaging an absurd 26-6.5-8 with almost 3 steals and 2 blocks per game, but he's also back to his one bad habit of playing out of control occasionally--his 4 turnovers per game lead the league. And Amare Stoudemire is, simply put, the most dominant offensive force in the game. You now have to double team him from the second he has the ball, because he can overpower anyone, drive on anyone, and shoots the jumper as sweet as any big man in the league. Demonstrating what a great shooter he's become, Amare is shooting 87% on 11 FTA per game in Phoenix's first 7 games. He's also averaging 26-9-3, and shooting an obscene .644 from the floor. That number doesn't even make sense.

The Negative

The Spurs were already in trouble without Manu Ginobili, they've never been good with any of the Big 3 hurt, but now Tony Parker is out for a month too, and the team is floundering. They're 1-4 in their first 5, and now face the very real possibility that by the time Parker & Ginobili are healthy, they'll have dug too big of a hole to climb out of. What's amazing is their defense has been atrocious, something they've always been able to fall back on when struggling with injuries. Bruce Bowen, key along with Duncan to that killer defense, may be showing his age, he's only playing 20 minutes a game in the first 5. I'm pretty excited about his demise, so I may be jumping the gun a little. Time will tell if San Antonio gets it back--and gets healthy--in time to make a playoff spot run.

The 76ers have been one of the league's biggest disappointments, Elton Brand hasn't had quite the impact they were hoping for. I've watched a couple of their games and I'm convinced it's simply growing pains, a new team learning how to work with each other. Brand isn't getting the high post touches he normally gets and Andre Iguodala is really struggling with the lane clogged up by Brand & Dalembert, but I think these are issues that can be cleared up with time. Andre Miller is the perfect smart, veteran PG who can make this all work, but it may take another month before they're hitting on all cylinders. The upside of their initial awkwardness is the way 20-year-old SF Thaddeus Young has stepped up; he's actually leading the team in scoring at 16.5 PPG, and has added a very strong jumpshot (.478 from three!) to go with his excellent slasher game. I don't expect him to keep up those numbers, but Philly definitely has a keeper in Young, he can really play.

I suppose Pistons fans aren't feeling great about the Iverson trade, but I've watched both losses that he played in and the Pistons--a jumpshooting team that was always prone to those ugly games where nobody's shot is falling--have gotten a lot of shots that they usually make. This move wasn't made for the regular season anyway, and I suspect they may even fall off of last year's pace by a few games--but the bottom line on this trade won't be known until playoff time rolls around. The Pistons have struggled against the great Eastern defensive teams, Boston and Cleveland, and Iverson may be able to create his own shot well enough to give the team a better chance than they had with Billups. We'll see--but not for a while.

But I sorta like the trade more from Denver's perspective, I think this has a chance of really working out well. Philadelphia got a lot better two years ago when they traded Iverson and got a more traditional point in Andre Miller, this move could work out similarly for Denver. They have scorers--Carmelo, JR Smith, Linas Kleiza--adding Billups may be the glue they need to make this into a coherent team. Also one thing I've noted from watching the Pistons games: Iverson can still play some D, but he's not as strong as Chauncey. I think the Pistons are really giving up some defense, and the Nuggets are getting a much needed improvement. The Nuggets are still one Nene (averaging a strong 16 & 9 so far) injury away from being atrocious, but if they can miraculously stay healthy they could keep that last playoff spot they grabbed last year.