NOW FOR THE HARD PART

The Lakers finally made some shots, played some tough D, and ran roughshod over Houston to complete the echoing of the 2008 Celtics-Hawks series where a far less talented team takes a massive favorite to the brink because of a few bad matchups.

Which leads me to the Denver-LA series. At first glance it looks like Denver is the better team. While they were firing on all cylinders and blowing out New Orleans and Dallas, the Lakers were bumbling and stumbling against Utah and an injury-decimated Houston team. In other words, it wasn't just the result, i.e., Denver winning in fewer games; the Nuggets just looked like the better team.

But yet here we are in the conference finals and the Lakers are heavy favorites. Is everyone an idiot? Do Vegas sportsbook gamblers foolishly bet with their heart? Or is it simply because the Lakers really are the better team, but haven't looked it because they've had less favorable matchups? Or hell, maybe you think they haven't looked it because they dogged it against Houston or were overconfident, whatever, but the question is, is there some reason the Lakers will be better in this series than they have appeared to be in the previous two.

I'd say yeah. I think LA will be better than they've looked so far and I think they'll take this series. First, because LA really is the better team--those 82 games weren't for nothing. Even if you look at only the games Billups played, LA's record was much better. But second because I think some key matchups really favor the Lakers, unlike in their first two series. I'm not saying the Lakers will waltz to the Finals; I have a lot of respect for Denver and think they're big, tough, and extremely athletic--but I do think the Lakers' size and Kobe will finally wear 'em down in the end in a hard-fought 6-7 game series.

Here are the matchups I like:

Billups vs. Fisher/Farmar. Obviously Billups is much better than the Laker PGs, but the reason I like this matchup is that Billups is a bigger, slower PG who Fisher can at least sorta deal with defensively. I'd much rather Fisher go up against Billups than the insanely quick Aaron Brooks, who spent the last 7 games dribbling circles around the entire Laker defense. Billups has always had success against LA, so I don't expect him to be completely shut down by any stretch. But I also don't think he's going to score 22 a game and shoot 55% from 3 like he has in the playoffs so far, and I'm not sure Denver can beat very good teams without Billups playing like the superstar he's been thus far.

Gasol/Bynum/Odom vs. Martin/Nene/Anderson. This is tricky. This is probably the series in a nutshell. While Denver's front court is very good and very athletic and Houston after Yao's injury had a bunch of cruddy role players no one's ever heard of, I honestly think Denver is an easier matchup for LA's bigs. Gasol has never had difficulty with a defender's athleticism, or even size, it's always physical toughness that he struggles against. I've seen the Laker bigs play against Nene and Kenyon Martin many times and I've never seen them push around Gasol and Odom the way those undersized but tough-as-hell Houston bigs did. Martin has a tough guy reputation but for whatever reason Gasol has always had success against him and I don't expect things to change. Plus none of the Nugget big men are especially aggressive on offense, I don't see them hurting LA the way Luis Scola and Carl Landry did in the Houston series. Chris Anderson sorta worries me with his crazy energy and athleticism, I shudder to think of big, slow-footed Andrew Bynum trying to keep him off the offensive glass, but on the whole I think the Laker big men win this battle. The huge, ever-present caveat for the Lakers here is the health--physical and mental--of Andrew Bynum. I'm predicting he continues his recent pattern of playing well at home and not so much on the road, which is typical of young, non-superstars in the playoffs.

Kobe vs. Dahntay Jones/JR Smith and Carmelo vs. Trevor Ariza. It's weird how Carmelo has always stunk against the Lakers; that athletic and physical wing player has historically been a tough matchup for LA--Paul Pierce in last year's finals for example. Bottom line, Melo is a damn good player who's been at a sky high level all through these playoffs (27.0 ppg, .480 shooting, .447 from 3), so I expect him to break out of his funk against the Lakers and cause all sorts of problems. I don't see how Ariza can defend him, especially if Denver is making 3s and not allowing Kobe or someone to help out on him.

But as bad as Carmelo tears up the Lakers, I think Kobe will tear up Denver even worse. They just don't have anyone on the roster who can stay with him--unlike Houston with two of the best perimeter defenders in the entire league. Dahntay Jones is in the starting lineup solely because of his defense, but he's no Battier--Kobe destroys Jones every time they play. JR Smith is a surprisingly good on-ball defender but he's also a space cadet who makes all kinds of defensive mistakes and hurts the overall team D. So I like Kobe's chances of doing what he did last year, putting up big scoring numbers, shooting a high percentage, and getting to the line a lot. If it comes down to who plays better between Kobe and Carmelo, I like the Lakers' chances.

The real wild card in this matchup is Smith on offense. He can't guard Kobe, that's a given. But with his jaw-dropping offensive skills, he may be able to at least partially offset Kobe's production. You just never know what you're gonna get with young JR, he could come out and bomb for 25 a game and rain down 3s from all over the court, or he could average 12 ppg in 20 minutes and not be much of a factor. But I definitely respect and fear Smith's game. If he's on, nobody's going to stop him, including Kobe.

Bottom line, the Lakers sorta own this team. I know they're different--very different--with Billups at the helm instead of The Black Hole. But they still have the same individual players that individual Lakers have a history of beating up on. Billups doesn't make Kenyon Martin defend Gasol in the post any better, y'know? So while I'll acknowledge the possibility that Billups might make the difference, I still like enough matchups here to think LA will take it in a hard-fought series and move on to the finals.

I'll try to post something about the East later this week, but for now I'll predict Cleveland wins in 5 or 6, but gets pushed a hell of a lot more than they have thus far.