MIHMPOSSIBLE DREAM

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

DEEP THOUGHTS

A Tale of One City

Ok, so it's not the best of times for the Lakers (the 80s) or the worst of times for the Clippers (the entire history of the franchise before last year), but suddenly roles have reversed from last year and it's the Lakers who are among the league's elites and the Clippers wallowing in mediocrity.

I'm still not entirely sold on the Lakers--9 of their 13 games have been played at home, the 9 teams they've beaten have a collective record of 50-70, and they're only outscoring teams by 1.7 ppg, a tough way to put up 50+ wins--but they're winning, as Lamar Odom aptly put it, "ugly games" and beating team they should beat, something they struggled with even in the Shaq years.

Kobe is continuing to use sound judgement even as his game comes back to him. He's still clearly not 100% as his disappearing act in the fourth quarter of the Utah game showed, but he's generally being aggressive--going to the line 9.3 times per game (8th in the league and just one FTA below last year) --and still managing not to force a bunch of dumb shots. 16 shot attempts per game is perfect, IMO, especially with only 2.7 of them being threes (I'll ignore the 10 he's taken over the last 2 games as an anomaly).

Odom and Walton are continuing their hot starts, Lamar putting up 20/8/5 and Walton shooting an insane .684 from three. And Kwame Brown has shockingly continued his strong play from last year's playoffs, coming off injury to average 9 & 8 with a steal and a block in just 24 minutes per game. He was unstoppable in the Utah game, backing down Mehmet Okur at will. That's a real problem for the Jazz, by the way, their interior defense is pretty weak. Kwame is playing very well--for him--but he's not Duncan/Yao/Brand/Amare, if you know what I mean. They need Kirilenko to be 100% healthy come playoff time, because I don't think Boozer and Okur can get it done on the defensive end without help.

Anyway, the Lakers should be in prime position after the next couple of weeks because their next 7 games are at Staples Center (with one "road" game against the Clippers), with 5 of the 7 coming against mediocre teams.

As for the Clippers, they're reeling right now. They've dropped 4 straight, including losses to Minnesota and Seattle, and are 0-5 on the road. I think the biggest problem is Brand & Kaman, the two that led their solid playoff run last year. Kaman has just been godawful, averaging just 8 & 7 with a disastrous .400 FG%, after putting up 12/10/.523 last year. The good news is that he was showing some signs of life with 24 points and 24 boards in his last two games before recently spraining an ankle. We'll see what happens when he comes back, but this team needs the 2005-2006 Kaman desperately.

As for Elton Brand, I just don't know what his problem is. He's not the same player. He looks OK physically, but he's playing far more passively than he was last year. His per-game shot attempts have gone from 18.2 to 13.8, and his FTA have gone from 7.2 to 5.3. I just don't see him taking opposing big men off the dribble as much as he did in 2005-2006; he's just settling for that jumper way too much. This team can't win with Brand scoring 17 a game, they can't win with Cassell being the leading scorer on the team. Brand has to get his act together. As with Kaman, there are encouraging signs--his FGA are up to 16.0 per game over the last 5, but that's still not enough. The Clippers' perimeter players are solid, but not spectacular. This is a team that wins by getting the ball inside to Brand, and by controlling the boards and playing good defense. They're really getting away from that this year, and paying with a 6-6 record. I've never been a huge Mike Dunleavy fan, we'll see what he can do to get the team out of the quagmire it's in.

Carmelo

Ok, it's time to give it up for Carmelo Anthony. After finishing the 05-06 season on absolute fire, he's been even better to start this season. Leading the way on the #1 scoring team in the NBA, Melo is averaging 31/5/4, shooting .510 from the floor, .864 from the line (on almost 10 FTA per game) and getting over 2 steals per. It's amazing that you sometimes hear his athleticism questioned. I guess compared to Lebron and Wade, two of the all-time high-flyers in NBA history, maybe he is, but look:

1. He's a hell of a jumper. Maybe not on LBJ's level, but he's still in the upper echelon. And he's a "quick jumper", like Shawn Marion, a guy that just has such quick reflexes and such good anticipation that he's up on the offensive glass well before everyone else.

2. He has great strength. If you haven't seem him play for a while, check him out, he's just strong as hell. He takes contact at the rim and finishes better than anyone in the NBA, including Lebron.

3. He's very quick--for his size. That's the key. Carmelo probably only has average quickness for an NBA small forward, arguably the most athletic position in all of sports. But the thing is, if you put a smallish SF on Carmelo, he kills you around the rim with his size and strength. If you go with a bigger SF, those are the guys Melo can torch off the dribble.

If he can start shooting the three the way he did in the World Championships this summer, he'll be the entire offensive package, an unstoppable force (I realize the international line is closer, but Melo was really stroking the outside jumper).

I'm not sure Denver can compete in the West with Kenyon Martin out for the season (although their recent run where they beat Golden State twice and the Clippers may suggest otherwise), but at a minimum they're a hell of a lot of fun to watch. With a 5-game winning streak, JR Smith's recent emergence (22.7 ppg over his last 6, with 3.5 threes per game), Nene due back this week and Joe Smith giving them some solid play off the bench, things are looking pretty good in Denver.

Andris Biedrins

I swear to god, I call someone out, he goes on a tear and makes me look stupid. True story: early in the season, I changed my "smack" in my Yahoo Fantasy League to read "Words That Have Never Been Spoken: Oh shit, he has Andris Biedrins!" to taunt a fellow owner who had Biedrins on his roster. All Biedrins has done in the last 9 games is average 14 & 13 with 3+ blocks per game (he's 3rd in the league in blocks, ahead of Marcus Camby), and has shot .623 from the field. By the way, Biedrins is 20.

Say what you want about Chris Mullin and his giving Derek Fisher $37M, Adonal Foyle $42M, Mike Dunleavy Jr. $44M and Troy Murphy $58M--Ok, I will say what I want, those moves were all beyond retarded. But let's give the man some credit for a few brilliant recent moves.

1. He drafted Biedrins, who all of a sudden looks like a potential superstar.

2. He absolutely stole the rapidly arriving Monta Ellis in the second round of last year's draft. Ellis is averaging 18/3/4 and shooting .470 from the floor at age 21.

3. He swiped Baron Davis for peanuts, Davis being the guy who makes the entire Don Nelson system work.

4. And most importantly, he lured Don Nelson out of retirement, a move that not only made the team fun, exciting, and *good*, but also immediately helped in the development of Biedrins, Ellis, and Davis, along with their other young guys, Michael Pietrus, Dunleavy, Ike Diogu, Matt Barnes, et al. The thing about Nelson is that he's so good at putting his players in positions in which they can succeed. He knows how to adapt to the talent he has, how to ask his players to do what they can do and not make them do the stuff they can't. All this has added up to one of the best offenses in the league and a solid 9-6 start (despite injuries to Davis, Murphy, Pietrus and Diogu). Although they've only played 4 games on the road, they've also played a juggernaut of a schedule, their opponents collectively 125-81 on the season so far.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

TEN GAMES IN

THE BAD

Phoenix/Miami

Now that Dallas and Detroit seem to have gotten their shit together with 7- and 3-game win streaks respectively, it's just Phoenix and Miami who are god-awful defending conference finalists. But I'm hear to tell you the picture isn't as bleak as it seems. Well, for Phoenix anyway.

Phoenix has played just a brutal schedule in its first 10 games, their opponents going a collective 69-36 to date. The Suns' losses are: @Lakers, Utah, @Clippers, @San Antonio, Dallas, and @Utah. That's rough.

But things are looking up. Phoenix is coming off a tough overtime loss on the road to league-leader Utah, and then a solid road win over resurgent Golden State. But more importantly for the long-term, Amare is starting to come alive: over the last 4, Amare is averaging 21 & 10 and shooting .634 from the floor--in under 30 minutes a game.

Other encouraging signs include Leandro Barbosa's steady march upward; he's averaging 20/4/6 and shooting .451 from the floor and an amazing .474 from 3PT on almost 6 attempts per game (this after shooting over .440 from three last year, so it's no fluke). The only area I'd like to see improvement is in getting to the line. I realize that's not a huge part of the Phoenix system, but his 5.2 FTA per game is the lowest among all 20PPG scorers--and that list includes Ray Allen and Wally Sczerbiak, for crying out loud. Barbosa is hands down the quickest player in the league. When he lowers his head and takes it to the rim, he's literally unguardable; hence, he should be getting to the line at will. Like when Phoenix goes cold on their jumpers, which happens occasionally.

In the end, I think this team is going to be just fine. They played an extremely difficult early schedule when they were trying to awkwardly figure out a way to incorporate Amare into what they had going on last year, and got tripped up a bit. I don't know if they can win a championship--there are a lot of "if"s with this team, including Amare's knees and Nash's back--but my gut feeling is that they'll turn this thing around, win 50+ games, and be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs.

Now with Miami, it's a bit different. Unlike Phoenix, Miami is just simply a bad team. In fact, they're as bad as a team with Dwyane Wade on it can be. They can't score--at all--and they're mediocre defensively. They're old, creaky, injury-prone, and thin. This team reminds me a lot of the 2002-2003 Lakers, a team that has almost no room for error. It was Shaq and Kobe and a bunch of crap, they came out of the gate slowly, Shaq was beat up the whole year, they limped into the playoffs and thought they could just turn it on when they needed to--and just got plain beat by a superior Spurs team. If they had played that series 100 times, they'd have gotten beat 90 of them.

Eventually Shaq will be back, but I'm telling you right now--Miami won't win the championship this year, period. I don't care if Wade puts them on his back the way he did last year, it's not going to be enough, they just don't have the supporting cast. I know how Shaq is--like Miami's team, a guy with almost no room for error. When he does get back, it's going to take him forever to get back into shape, and even then it wasn't like he was the 30-15 asskicking machine of 2001 before the injury.

Getting Jason Williams back will help enormously, but I still don't see how they can score reliably with Williams-Wade-Walker-Haslem-Mourning. That's one great offensive player, two decent ones, a 10 PPG garbage guy, and a total offensive zero. Their bench players (after GP yields the starting PG job) include Payton, Dorrell Wright and James Posey. Payton's .351 FG% leads that group. With Shaq out for at least another month, Michael Doleac becomes their primary big man off the bench. Doleac. This team is in serious trouble.

The only saving grace is that they play in the shitpile East, where Dwyane Wade, Rafael Araujo, Shawn Kemp, and two guys picked randomly from the stands (three, if one of 'em could beat out Araujo) could probably compete for the #8 playoff spot. But still, just like with that '03 Lakers team, if they limp in, they'll limp right out. They need help.

Chicago

Chicago came in with sky-high expectations and spazzed their way to a horrid 3-8 start. But like Phoenix, they've played a brutal early schedule, with 8 of their first 11 games on the road and their opponents 69-47 on the season. Chicago is currently on a 5-game road losing streak to teams who collectively have a winning percentage of .679. The average margin of defeat was 9 points.

What's their problem? As you might expect, there are a few. They're a good defensive team, giving up only 102 points per 100 possessions, but they're a terrible offensive team and don't have the surrounding firepower to withstand having a complete offensive zero on the floor for 35 minutes a game. The Pistons surrounded Ben Wallace with Billups, Hamilton, Prince and Rasheed, all very good offensive players. And they still weren't a fantastic offensive team, they were just good enough to score what they needed in order to win. The Bulls will obviously have to win with defense too, but I have my doubts about whether they can score enough, like the Pistons could.

And let's be honest, Ben Wallace is not the same player. He's been in decline for a couple of years, and I don't see that turning around. Wallace is a guy with massive heart (whereas his brother just has an enlarged one), but his game relies almost entirely on his super high-end athleticism. Wallace at his peak was big and powerful, sure, but he was also extremely quick for his size and had great hops. I predicted at the time of the deal that we'd see a major decline in production over the next 3-4 years as Wallace starts to decline physically, and I think that's what's happening this year. He's still a very good player, but (a) I don't think he's a great one anymore, and (b) I think it'll get worse--and possibly much worse--over the rest of his contract. I knew the Pistons would suffer the loss of Big Ben, but I also knew you don't give $60M to a 32-year-old whose game depends largely on pure athleticism. You think the Bulls would give him that same contract today? Highly doubtful.

I also think the Bulls have the same problem they've had for the past two seasons--I just don't see how you win with Ben Gordon as your primary scoring option. I like Ben Gordon, don't get me wrong. I think he's a good, energetic, clutch player who can play a major role on a good team. But leading shot-taker? A 6'1 guy who shoots in the low 40s? What team has ever won with a guy like that leading the team in shots? The Iverson Sixers, I guess, but they didn't *really* win, they got to the Finals in a very down year for their conference, they weren't one of the 5 best teams in basketball in 2001. And they got ran off the court by the Lakers.

I think they need to figure out a way for Deng and Nocioni to do more. They've both had their moments this year, Deng leading the team in scoring (but not shots) with 17 PPG on .542 shooting, and Nocioni torching the Lakers for 30 on Sunday, but it hasn't been enough to make this team respectable offensively. With Hinrich staying right around where he was last year (albeit with better percentages), Deng and Nocioni are the keys to this team getting good enough offensively to win 50+ games and be a contender in the East.

I wonder if Skiles is on the hot seat. Crumbs, what's your take here? He might just be one of those coaches who's great at getting a young team into the playoffs, but not the right guy to take them to the next level. This season has been extremely disappointing thus far, I think Skiles needs to show he can lead this team and get them back on track. The Bulls have a lot of talent, there's no reason it can't be assembled into a very good or even great team.

Milwaukee

This team came in with moderately high hopes, and a 3-8 start wasn't what they were looking for. Now with promising second-year man Charlie Villanueva out 4-6 weeks with an elbow injury, they're in danger of a real freefall.

They're just an awful defensive team, giving up 110 points per 100 possessions, which ties them with Seattle and Washington for league-worst. They're a decent offensive team with a few real bright spots. Michael Redd has been on fire in the early going, averaging a shade under 30 PPG with his usual excellent percentages. Villanueva was playing well before the injury, averaging 14/7/2 and shooting .495 from the floor and a respectable .353 from three. The key here is that he's shown good shot selection for a guy Toronto management dubbed "little Antoine Walker". And Andrew Bogut is continuing to progress steadily, putting up a solid 12/7/3 in his second year. He's not setting the world on fire just yet, especially on the defensive end, but those aren't bad numbers for a second-year center.

Still, this team just doesn't have an identity. If you're that terrible on defense, you need to start putting up Phoenix/Golden State/Denver type of offensive numbers, and Milwaukee isn't doing that. They're decent offensively, but nothing special. I'd really like to see Mo Williams step up his game. I thought he was in for a potentially giant year, a Mike James breakout kind of year, but 14 & 6 with crappy percentages doesn't wow me.

Individuals Struggling

With Sacramento's new look defense giving up just 102 points per 100 possessions and Kevin Martin emerging as a star-in-the-making, the Kings have a good shot at putting together something worthwhile here--they're 5-4 in the early going, but maybe that would be even better if Bibby and Artest would pull their heads out. While Martin is ripping the nets for 24 PPG on .528 shooting and Shareef Abdur-Rahim is doing a yeoman's job guarding big PFs and even centers, Bibby and Artest are launching up enough bricks to house all of Shawn Kemp's illegitimate children. They're taking 32 shots a game between them, and both are sub-.400 on the season. The FGA includes 9 threes attempted per game, and Artest and Bibby are shooting a collective .231 on them. Now you know Bibby is going to turn it around, he's too solid of a shooter to keep going like this. But you also know (a) Artest won't turn it around, and (b) he won't stop shooting either. But that's what you get with Artest. Obviously he's the key to this resurgent defense, so you have to take the bad with the good. But maybe it could be just a little less bad?

Speaking of bricklayers, Josh Smith is shooting sub-.400 as well. How a guy who can jump over the top of the backboard shoots under 40% is beyond me, but his 4.6 3PT FGA per game--on which he's shot below 30%--might have something to do with it. I knew when he started shooting the three last year that it could end up being a curse in disguise. It reminds me of when Chris Webber was at UM; if he took a three I'd pray for a miss, because otherwise you could be sure 3-4 more would be going up real quickly. Smith isn't a rocket scientist, he's just someone who's really quick and can jump really, *really* fucking high. He needs someone to get in his ear and tell him to take the goddamn ball to the basket. Tell him this: I want three dunks for every three point attempt. Until you get three dunks, don't shoot a three, period.

Another guy struggling with his shot, surprisingly, is Manu Ginobili. You know, I think Bill Simmons might be on to something here. Why does a (supposedly) 29-year-old guy: have a bald spot; get injured every 10 days; move about as well as Joe Paterno, post-surgery; and have to play under 30 minutes a night for his entire NBA career? It's curious. I mean, even gimpy-ass Grant Hill, Steve Nash and Shaq can play over 30 minutes, but not Manu? Anyway, like Bibby, you know he'll be back, he's just too good (even for a 34-year-old or whatever he really is) to drop 7 points in FG% in one year.

Speaking of shooting poorly, hi Adam Morrison. It's one thing for Manu or Bibby to throw up a bunch of bricks, they can do lots of other things for your team. But if *all* you can do is shoot, you better shoot the lights out. Morrison needs to shoot like Mike Miller, and so far it's been more like Mike Sweetney. Morrison had a couple nice games last week, but followed that up with two stinkeroos. He's hitting a paltry .369 for the year, and .326 from three. He's also inexplicably shooting an atrocious .667 from the line and has more turnovers than assists. For--let's face it--a loudmouth punk (the fact that nobody calls him out on this for the OBVIOUS reason is hilarious to me), he needs to get a lot better. Fast.

Another couple of guys who are holding back the Bobcats are Ray Felton and Gerald Wallace. I'm really disappointed in Felton's start to the year. He finished up last season on such a high note, I thought he'd come into 2006 and just tear it up. So far he's averaging a cruddy 13/4/5 and shooting terribly from the floor and from three. He's fallen way behind Deron Williams and Chris Paul, but I'm keeping the faith that he'll bounce back. If you have him in your fantasy league, hang onto him another month or so, give him a chance.

Meanwhile Gerald Wallace is just down in every category across the board, with the total absence of blocks being most painful to his fantasy owners. Apparently with Okafor swatting away everything in sight, there's just not enough blocked shots to go around for Wallace. But Wallace has also seen huge dips in scoring, rebounding and steals. He's probably not 100% yet, but it's been a terrible start to the season for him. His upside is still high enough that I'd definitely hang on to him, but I can only imagine his owners are just about out of patience. You don't win in fantasy with your SF going for 11 & 4 every night.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

TEN GAMES IN

I've been away for a while, we have a lot to cover, so please take your seats and shut up.

THE GAME

I don't want to talk about The Game. I mean, ever. I'm normally pretty good about taking shit, but this weekend was just too much for one man to handle. I drank enough in Las Vegas this weekend to kill all but the last few brain cells that are holding onto the memory of this game, and I plan on excising those shortly. If there's a rematch--and there sure as fuck should be--it'll be different, let's leave it at that.

OK, on to the NBA...

THE GOOD (TOMORROW: THE BAD)

Utah

Hey man, I'm as surprised as anyone. I mean, some of the elements were there at the end of last season--Boozer just destroying everyone in sight, Deron Williams playing the floor general and knocking down shots, Okur giving them one of the few good C-PF combos in the league--but this is ridiculous. They haven't even gotten anything from Kirilenko yet, outside of a few blocked shots. They're 10-1, with wins against Houston, Golden State, Detroit, LA Clippers, and Phoenix twice.

It's always fun to watch someone make the jump from 'very good player' to 'superstar', as Elton Brand did last year. This year's version is Carlos Boozer. Boozer has always been a solid, productive player, but he's made a quantum leap in the early season, averaging 22 & 13 and giving them just a dominant force in the paint. I'm really starting to think the new "dead" ball helps post scorers more than anybody; I've seen a ton of flat shots from close in just die on the rim, which gives the ball a good chance of rolling in. Boozer, Zach Randolph and Emeka Okafor are all benefiting from this, IMO.

And then there's Deron Williams. I'd like to point out that I said he's "gearing up for a big second season" in my preseason fantasy rankings. I'd also not like to point out that I ranked him #17, behind the likes of Stephon Marbury and Mike James. The key to this blog is finding the few pins of decent info in the haystack of crap. Anyway, Williams has started the season absolutely on fire, putting up 18 & 9 with just 2.6 TOs, and is shooting .485 from the floor. And after starting 0-10 from three, he's now back to his usual reliable self, hitting 8-18 in his last 5 games. It's amazing to think this guy is only the *second* best PG in his draft class--but I'm not giving the race to Chris Paul just yet. There's a lot of basketball to be played in these guys' careers. Utah is like Toronto in the 2003 draft: maybe Bosh isn't D-Wade, but you're still pretty happy with your guy.

And now Utah has their 2006 draft paying off as well, with rookies Ronnie Brewer and especially Paul Millsap making a splash. Millsap is a second rounder out of Louisiana Tech, one of these undersized PFs who were hyper-productive in college who seem to always pan out in the NBA. He's a 6'7 wide body with good athleticism and a high skill level. In the last 5 games, he's averaging almost 14 & 7 in only 23 minutes, and has totaled 38 & 17 over the last two games. He has something of a logjam in front of him with Boozer and Okur (and eventually Kirilenko coming back from injury), but keep a close eye on him, this kid can really play.

My gut feeling is that Utah is big, deep and talented, and while they might cool off a bit, they'll still stay among the league elites and have a real shot at competing for the big prize in the playoffs. I'd like to see them involve Kirilenko more when he gets back; although they've obviously been successful with what their doing, I don't think you want to have one of the 30-40 best players in the league scoring below double figures. When the playoffs come around, I'd rather have Kirilenko be my perimeter and mid-range scorer than Harpring, Fisher and Giricek, dig? I know AK-47 wasn't shooting the ball real well even before the injury, but he'll bounce back, mark it down. But whatever happens with Kirilenko, it looks like Utah has arrived and is here to stay.


Los Angeles

We're seeing some great ball here in the City of Angels, with both teams out to solid starts. However, they've both benefitted from favorably early schedules, particularly the Lakers who've played only one team over .500 and only three games on the road. The Clippers have played only *two* road games, but have faced far better opposition--the record of the teams they've faced is 44-36, 42-30 if you take out the Clippers 6 wins and 2 losses.

But both have shown a lot of promise. Andrew Bynum has been frustratingly up and down, as all young big men are, but is coming off a huge 12 & 13/4-block performance against Chicago. Laker management is just gushing about Bynum. When asked if he would trade Bynum for Garnett straight up, one unnamed official said he'd "have to think about it". http://www.latimes.com/sports/printedition/la-sp-heisler19nov19,1,4500535.story?coll=la-headlines-pe-sports

For all the talk about Kobe being a distributor, his assists are only up .6 per game (and still .9 below where they were two years ago) and he's turning the ball over an absurd 4.8 times per. But the key is his shot selection, he's just not forcing nearly as many stupid shots as he has in the post-Shaq era--his .500 FG% speaks to that, as does his 14 shot attempts and 2.4 three-point attempts (down from 27.2 and 6.5 last year). But I'm telling ya right now that's not going to hold the rest of the year. I know Kobe, I know how his mind works. As he gets healthier and healthier--and more and more confident--look for those shot attempts to creep higher and higher. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am. He's going to shoot more--the key is whether "more" means "too much". Only Kobe can answer that.

The Clippers continue to struggle with their outside shot, making a laughable 3.0 threes per game. Everyone's just playing zone on them right now and daring the Clippers to beat them from outside. They may need to make a deal for a shooter, and Corey Maggette's solid play in the early going makes him a valuable asset. Still, it's so hard in the NBA to match up the money that it makes deals pretty difficult to pull off. If they stand pat, it still remains to be seen whether teams can stop them--even with all the zone, the Clippers are still averaging over 100 a game. They might not be able to shoot the three, but they have solid midrange shooting, from Cassell and Mobley to Maggette and Tim Thomas, and even Brand can stick the 15-footer with regularity. It's too bad Shaun Livingston still can't shoot the ball; I've hardly given up on him, I think he'll still be a superstar, but his start to the season has been very disappointing.

Golden State

I was pretty geeked about Don Nelson's return to the NBA, especially with a team who had a lot of players already well-suited for his offense--and I haven't been disappointed. Golden State is averaging 105 per game, up 6 from last year, and have jumped out to a solid 7-4 record despite suffering key injuries to Jason Richardson, Troy Murphy and Ike Diogu.

The new Baron Davis-Monta Ellis backcourt in Golden State has been dynomite, with Davis averaging 21 & 8 and shooting the ball surprisingly well, and Ellis emerging rapidly with 19/3/4 and shooting .517 from the floor and .393 from three. In the 6 games he's started (with Richardson out), Ellis has averaged 21 & 6. Michael Pietrus is also tearing it up, averaging 15 & 7 with a steal and a block per game, making 1.6 threes per, and shooting a ridiculous .538 from the floor and .436 from three. It's amazing what a Don Nelson offense does to put guys in positions where they can succeed. Even Mike Dunleavy is playing well!

And now they have Andris Biedrins emerging as a legitimate NBA center, the 20-year-old big man averaging 9 & 9 with 2+ blocks per game. This is a good, fun, entertaining team. They still don't play a lick of defense, but their 4.1 per-game point differential is third in the league behind only Utah and San Antonio.

Orlando

The Magic haven't set the world on fire quite yet, but in what looks to be a dreadful Eastern Conference they're one of the few teams exceeding expectations. Man-Child Dwight Howard is coming off back to back 20/20s and is now averaging 16 & 14 with 2 blocks per, on Shaq-like .608 shooting. He turns the ball over way too much, and his game is somewhat limited right now, but what he does, he does *very well*.

Orlando also has a nice supporting cast in Jameer Nelson, Grant Hill and Hedo Turkoglu, and a very deep and talented bench. It seems like every night they're getting something from Arroyo, Dooling, Milicic and Ariza. For you Pistons fans, Darko is averaging a solid 7 & 5 with 2+ blocks in only 19 minutes. The only mistake bigger than drafting him was in giving him (and Arroyo!) away for a couple of used basketballs--as predicted at the time, that #1 pick they got will turn out to be somewhere in the 20s.

Good, solid team, lots of depth, lots of youth and energy--this is someone to watch out for down the road. In a cruddy East, this is a team that can make some noise in the playoffs if they can continue to develop and stay healthy (particularly Grant Hill, his calming influence is a big factor here).

Individuals Busting Out

Emeka Okafor, welcome to Budding Superstardom. I'm dumbstruck over what this guy is doing in the early going--young Emeka is putting up 20 & 12 with 4+ blocks per night! That's insane. And remember way back last week when I was asking how a 6'10 guy shoots in the low 40s? Um yeah, he's up a bit since then. To .575. That's not a misprint. A guy who shot .447 in his rookie year and .415 in 26 injury-riddled games last year is now putting up a .575. Okafor has just been utterly dominant on both ends so far this year. Try this line on for size, from last night's Dallas game (a team with 2 decent defensive centers, mind you): 22/13/3, 8-14 shooting, 1 steal, and 8 motherfucking blocks! (that's how it's listed in the official boxscore: Blocks: Nowitzki 2, Dampier 2, Diop 1; Motherfucking Blocks: Okafor 8.)

Atlanta has dropped 3 straight, cooling off after their hot 4-1 start, but Joe Johnson continues to play like a real star, averaging 28/6/4 with 2.6 threes per game, and shooting .477 from the floor and .396 from three.

Zach Randolph might be the most valuable player in the league so far, averaging 26 & 11 to lead the Trail Blazers to a solid 5-7 record against a very tough early season schedule. He's also being helped out by a strong debut from rookie LaMarcus Aldridge, who's averaged a very solid 10 & 6 in limited minutes over his first 6 games, making almost 66% of his shots. He's already won the starting center job outright from the solid Jamal Magloire. With Jarret Jack playing well, the Blazers should be a pretty fun young team to watch when Brandon Roy gets back from injury (which should be within the next week or so).

Speaking of Biedrins up above, another couple of young Euro big men are playing well: we have Nenad Krstic averaging 16 & 7.5 on .552 shooting and Zaza Pachulia at 15 & 7 and .546. Krstic is 23, Pachulia just 22. With Bosh, Okafor, Howard, Kaman and Bynum all 24 or under--and the 'dead ball' helping out those FG percentages--all of a sudden the big man picture in the NBA is looking up.

There's a guy out there who I want you to keep your eye on: Sergio Rodriguez, the Spanish Magician. He's a 20-year-old point guard out of Spain who was drafted by Phoenix and then sent off to Portland. He's played very limited minutes this year for the Blazers, but I took notice of him when he had a stretch over 2 games where he racked up 16 assists in only 38 total minutes, with just 2 turnovers. Rodriguez is lightning quick and an absolutely gifted passer, and while he's shot the ball poorly so far this year (4-21 from the floor), the scouts say he's got a very good J, including from three. He's likely a major defensive liability--listed at 168 pounds, he'd probably get destroyed by the bigger NBA point guards, but at only 20, he has time to develop both physically and in technique. He's still probably at least a couple years away, but I have a feeling he's going to be a good one.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

ON HIATUS FOR THE WEEK

I apologize to my readers, but my full attention needs to be on UM-OSU preparations this week. It's not just the blog that's suffering, I'm also planning to do not a lick of work this week. How could I? With "The Greatest Sporting Event EVER" and a Vegas trip thrown into the mix, I'm as overstimulated as a kid at Disneyland after cotton candy, elephant ears and three Red Bulls.

I'll be back in force next week.

Until then,
GO BLUE!

Thursday, November 09, 2006

PHOENIX-DALLAS: GAME OF THE YEAR (SO FAR)

If you missed Phoenix-Dallas tonight, you missed one hell of a game. The quality of play was high and both teams played as hard as you'll see anyone play in the first month of the season.

The defending Western Conference Finalists were a combined 1-8 coming into the game, and the sense of desperation was obvious. Phoenix was up by 9 at one point; weird stat: Phoenix has led by at least 9 in each game this year, yet have lost 4 out of 5. And this game was yet another example of Phoenix not having the stuff down the stretch as Dallas ended up pulling it out, possibly turning the corner on their horrible start to the season.

The problem with Dallas so far has been offense, they just haven't been able to get it going. It was nice to see Dirk Nowitzki & Jason Terry break out of their mini-slumps, Dirk going for 35 (on 11-19 shooting and 12-12 FTs) and Terry putting in 30 himself (9-15 from the floor, including 4-6 from three). Speaking of Terry, he'll make a great coach or analyst someday, he's a really bright guy and actually has an iota of personality, rare for a professional athlete. He actually reminds me a lot of his coach, Avery Johnson, just someone who could always speak really intelligently about the game of basketball.

Phoenix blew yet another lead and lost yet another game on their home floor, but there were some encouraging signs. Diaw got the start and looked miles better than he has so far this year, going for 13/4/5 and being far more active than he's been to date.

Jalen Rose looks to be a great addition for them, he's had a whole one practice and six minutes of PT last night, and D'Antoni still had enough confidence to put him out there for 24 minutes tonight. Jalen had 9 points on 4-6 shooting and looked like a great fit for their motion offense. He's a really smart player, he just knows how to handle the ball, how to pass the ball, and how to move without the ball, all key ingredients in the Phoenix system.

And there was Leandro Barbosa. I know I sound like a broken record here (hey, at least I've shut up about Andrew Bynum for a few days), but I'm really excited about what this guy is doing. He had 30 tonight on 9-15 shooting, including a scorching 5-8 from three. In fact, I think D'Antoni made a real tactical error having Barbosa out of the game late in the 3rd/early in the 4th when Dallas took back the lead. Barbosa is now averaging 20 a game and shooting 47% from three. Wild prediction: Barbosa will end up being the leading scorer on this team, ahead of Stoudemire, Marion and Nash. He's just unstoppable, it's really as simple as that.

And finally we get to Amare. I feel so encouraged for my fantasy team, I want to cry. On the second night of a back-to-back, Amare played *34* minutes, and had 16 & 8. He still isn't nearly the same player he was, he missed two would-be dunks on the pick-and-roll that would have been highlight reel-ers if he were 100%; and he's having trouble with the entry pass from Nash--Nash had 10 turnovers, and at least 4-5 of them came from passes to Stoudemire that were tough to handle in traffic, but ones he definitely snags 2 years ago. One of Amare's greatest strengths is his hands, and I feel like he's a little rusty in that department right now. He also missed a couple of boards where he had inside position. It'll come. I think.

One thing I noticed is that they're not running any isolation for him. When he was scoring 26 a game two years ago, sure, a lot of it was from the pick-and-roll, as Nash is the greatest pick-and-roll passer of all time and Amare is the best finisher in the game today--but they also ran some isolation for him where he could either take the opposing center off the dribble, or stick that 15-footer if the guy played off him. I think it'd help him out if they gave him some opportunities like that--it doesn't take explosive athleticism to (a) drive on Desagana Diop, or (b) pop a foul line jumper.

The officiatinn in this game was truly bizarre, the worst I've seen since, well, last year's playoffs. And not-at-all-coincidentally, the game was officiated by Dickhead Bavetta! Seriously, when is this guy going to be booted out the fucking door? The man is 66 YEARS OLD, that's too fucking old to be in a profession that relies on lightning quick judgment. We make airline pilots retire at 60; sure, pro sports officiating is *slightly* less important than being responsible for 300 people's lives, but the point is the same: at a certain age, your mind just can't function quickly enough to process all the information you take in. Period. And look, there's a lot of controversy about NBA officiating, everybody has their opinions, their teams' favorite refs, the ones who are "out to get us"--but one thing we can all agree on is DICK BAVETTA FUCKING BLOWS. *Everyone* hates Dick Bavetta, fans, players, coaches, everyone. So get rid of this guy already!

And there's another guy on the Bavetta crew (wait, do they have officiating teams, or do they rotate with all the other refs? I should know this). Anyway, I've noticed that this assclown Derrick Stafford is another of the truly horrific officials in the league. He made at least 5 calls tonight that I had to rewind on Tivo because I *literally* didn't understand what the call was. He made this charge call on Steve Nash--two-time MVP Nash on his home floor--where he was *in front of* Jason Terry, there was contact from *behind*, and Stafford rules that Nash had *backed into* Terry. I know you can't even picture this, because that call has never been made in the history of the league. You had to see it--several times on Tivo--to even understand what the fuck he was thinking. And look, it wasn't Reggie Miller kicking out a leg to draw contact, it was Nash coming to a direct stop and Terry hitting him from behind. Truly, truly bizarre call.

Then the Suns are down 4 in the final minute with the ball, and Dickhead Bavetta calls a *moving pick* on Stoudemire. So I'm like, "OK, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, Amare must have just moved 10 feet and chicken-winged somebody to the floor". They show it and it's literally Amare--in position--moving maybe half a step and barely drawing contact. Down 4. With a minute left. On their home floor. Huh?!?

For all of David Stern's concerns about NBA players bitching too much, the entire Suns team showed amazing restraint. I would've walked over to Bavetta and punched him in the throat. I mean, if I were a *fan* there at the game. If I were a *player*, I don't see how I walk out of the arena without some of Bavetta's blood being spilled. The guy just pisses me off. Retire. Please retire. You're an old, old man, you don't have much time left. Please. Go.

OK, now that that's off my chest, a few other observations from the last couple of nights:

With Jason Richardson out with injury, blog favorite Monta Ellis got the start tonight in Golden State and didn't disappoint: 21 & 5 in 39 minutes. This kid is coming *fast* (oh, get your mind out of the gutter, damn junior high schoolers). He reminds me a lot of Barbosa. He can't really do anything but score (and handle and pass a little, but nothing like a true PG), but man, can he score. He's super quick like Barbosa, but he's also got high-end hops too. Sky's the limit here.

Monta Ellis' running mate had a pretty decent night too, Baron Davis putting up a riDICulous 36/4/9 with no turnovers. Sometimes you see Davis play and wonder how the hell he isn't putting up hall-of-fame numbers. Then you see him the next night with one of those 6-19 specials and it's like, "Oh yeah. That's why."

In addition to Ellis, keep an eye on Michael Pietrus too. He's been being talked up for the last couple of years--and not living up to it--but he's had a nice start to the season. He was averaging 10 & 6 coming in, with 1.5 threes per game on 50% shooting, and had 18/5/5 with 4 threes tonight. It seems like he's been around for a while, but he's only 24, he could be one of those guys on the verge of a nice little breakout. If he's available in your league, you might want to think about grabbing him before the Christmas rush. He's the kind of guy--quick, rangy, athletic, can shoot the 3--that thrives in a Don Nelson offense.

Chris Paul had 34 & 10 in the game, but not enough as resurgent Golden State defended their home floor with an OT win, handing New Orleans/Oklahoma City/Butte/Poughkeepsie their first loss.

Cleveland killed Chicago tonight, leading by double figures basically the entire game. Lebron was Magic Lite, dishing out 12 assist, some of them spectacular, as Gooden & Varejao played the 2-headed PF monster, combining for 36 & 15 in 49 total minutes.

The Bulls' offense was just dreadful, as it will be at times. I just don't think they can be a championship competitive team until they figure out how to put the ball in the bucket more reliably. Charles Barkley made a great point tonight when he suggested they start Nocioni, as he's "the only big man they have who can score". I agree--I just don't think you want PJ Brown and Ben Wallace playing a lot of minutes at the same time. You can already defend as well as anyone, do you really need two offensive zeros out there together? I also like Nocioni over Deng; I like Deng a lot, I think he's a really good all-around player, but Nocioni showed in the Miami playoff series last year when he scored 22 a game that he can really be that other scorer alongside Ben Gordon. I like Gordon, he's yet another one of my favorite players to watch, but he ain't Kobe--you just can't rely on him to be The Man every single night. They have to figure something else out, and I think that something is Nocioni.

I love Thabo Sefolosha. I know this is another broken record, but I just can't get over how good this cat looks. How the hell did Philly let him get away? I can't remember if they were picking for Chicago in a pre-arranged deal, but whatever, Sefolosha is *way* better than Rodney Carney. He was only 2-7 shooting tonight, but had 6/4/3 in 22 minutes and just had a variety of smooth looking moves out there. Great, great draft for Chicago, as Tyrus Thomas also looked good in garbage time minutes, picking up 9 & 3 in 11 minutes and just showing off some breathtaking athleticism.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

WEEK ONE IN REVIEW

SURPRISES: GOOD

UTAH

Well, Utah is obviously the big shocker of the early season, jumping out to a 4-0 start with quality wins against Houston, at Phoenix and Detroit. Even more surprising, they scored over 100 in each of the 4 games. Carlos Boozer is leading the way averaging 20 & 14, continuing his strong play from the end of last season. Mehmet Okur is right where he was last year with 18 & 9, giving the Jazz one of the few solid PF/C combos in the league. The other key to the team's offensive success is the continuing development of Deron Williams. He came on strong at the end of last year, and has gotten off to a solid start this season with 13 & 7 against only 2.3 turnovers. However his three-point stroke seems to have disappeared; after shooting a fantastic .416 from three as a rookie, he's pulled a doughnut so far this season, going 0-7 in the first four games. I'm confident he'll get it going, he was just lights out in the last couple months of 2006.

Andrei Kirilenko is healthy so far, but isn't really getting into the flow of the offense of the new look Jazz with just 9 points per game. But he's rebounding and playing his usual killer defense--I think the offense will come, he's just too skilled of a player not to score in double figures. Another guy playing solid defense is second year man CJ Miles, a 19-year-old who made the jump straight from high school and was drafted in the second round in 2005. Miles won the starting SG job over Matt Harpring, Derek Fisher, and rookie first rounder Ronnie Brewer, and is playing well in limited minutes. He can put the ball in the basket too, he's already had a 17 point game and a 12 pointer. There aren't enough shots on this team for him to score in double figures consistently, but he's someone to keep an eye on down the road.

NEW ORLEANS/PHILADELPHIA

There are only two other undefeated teams in a league suddenly rife with parity, the Hornets and 76ers. Most of their wins have come against crappy or injury-depleted teams, but the 76ers did impressively take down the high-flying Orlando Magic on the road. I don't think either team is destined for greatness this year, but if I had to pick one, I'd take the Hornets. Chris Paul is continuing on his steady path to superstardom, averaging 16 points, 4 boards and *11* assists, against only 2.7 turnovers. He's also getting 2 swipes a game and has raised his FG% more than 4 points over last year with .474. The bad news is that he's 0-5 from three, and one game I watched where he missed 2 or 3, he wasn't even close. I've read that he put a ton of time in on his jumpshot this summer--I think it's showing up in the midrange game, hopefully the deep ball will follow in the next year or two, as appears to be happening with D-Wade. Peja Stojakovic started out ice cold in the first two games, but went 5-8 in game three, hopefully breaking out of his mini-slump. Tyson Chandler is controlling the boards as expected, but inexplicably hasn't blocked a shot yet.

As for Philly, Allen Iverson has come out of the gate swinging, averaging a ridiculous 34 & 10 for the opening week, shooting .493 from the floor and .546 from three--and he's only the second hottest shooter on the team. Kyle Korver is simply scorching, hitting 9 of his first 11 threes on the season. Philly as a whole is shooting .526 from three. Obviously they can't keep that up, and I expect the 76ers to be back to their usual .500 selves when they cool off.

THE LAKERS' SUPPORTING CAST

With Kobe, Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown out I expected the worst, but the strong play of Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, Andrew Bynum and Ronny Turiaf has them out to a solid 3-1 start. Odom has been out of his mind with 24/8/6, shooting .536 from the floor and .667 from three, and Luke Walton is putting in a solid all-around game as well with 14/5/3. Turiaf has absolutely dominated at times, disappeared at others, but he's still averaging 14 & 6 over the last three and playing with an energy that's been contagious. And teenager Andrew Bynum announced his presence in the NBA this week, coming out with a very solid 11 & 6 with 1 block per in just 19 minutes per game, providing a real big-man presence for the Lakers. Like with Turiaf, the consistency isn't there yet, he disappears at times, but he's had brilliant stretches where he just oozes potential. I love this kid. I absolutely love him. Legit 7'0 280 pound, athletic, energetic centers don't grow on trees, and I think the Lakers may have found themselves one.

PLAYERS

Joe Johnson, one of my favorite players in the league, is off to a red hot start, averaging 29/3/5 with 2.7 threes per game in Atlanta's surprising 2-1 start.

Rashard Lewis appears to be in full contract-drive mode, popping for 26 & 7 with *4* threes per game in Seattle's first three.

Props to the blogmaster, Zach Randolph is out of the gate in fine fashion, looking slim (well, *slimmer*) and active, and averaging 26 & 10 in Portland's first four, along with 90%+ free throw shooting and a block and a steal per game. Talent is not a problem for this guy; when he's healthy and his head's on straight, he can score and board with almost anyone in the league.

After reading a bunch of stuff this summer saying Wally Sczerbiak wouldn't be anywhere near 100% for the early part of the season, he looks to me to be around 130%, with 24 a game on .535 shooting.

I like Kevin Martin's game a lot, and I'm glad to see him off to a great start to the season--22 a game on .518 shooting. The key for the Kings this year is this: when it comes to shooting the ball, more Martin, less Artest.

How about Hakim Warrick? After doing nothing as a rookie, Warrick took advantage of Gasol's absence to put up 19 & 8 through Memphis' first three games.

Charlie Villanueva is also out to a strong start in his second season, averaging 19/11/2.5, making a three a game, and shooting over 50% from the floor.

Yet another player has shown me up after I badmouthed him here, Luke Ridnour springing for 19 & 7 with 1.7 threes per and great percentages. Seattle doesn't play any defense, but their O is firing on all cylinders right now.

Eddy Curry is playing very well, averaging 18 & 8 and managing to play 37 minutes a game without suffering a myocardial infarction.

After missing virtually all of his rookie year due to injury, Sean May has come out strong with 11 & 8 with 2 blocks per.

SUPRISES: BAD

DALLAS/PHOENIX

What the hell is wrong with the Mavericks?! 0-3 out of the gate with two losses at home (including to a resurgent--but still not that great--Golden State team), and an absolute drubbing by a Houston team who's won only that one game. The problem is defense--the Mavs are giving up 104 points per game, 11 more than the 93 a game they gave up in 2005-2006. They've lost solid defenders Adrian Griffin and Marquis Daniels, but that doesn't explain 11 PPG. I gotta think this is just a short-term blip, a team coming out a little less hungry than they need to be, and getting a sharply delivered kick-to-the-groin wakeup call. They're too talented, too deep, and too well-coached not to be a 55+ win team. They'll be back.

The other Western Conference finalist is out to a surprising 1-3 start. However, they've had a rough opening schedule, playing at the Lakers and Clippers (both of whom present tough matchups because of their size), home against the Clippers (why do they schedule the same matchup twice in the opening week?), and home against Utah, another big, physical team. They've had some problems integrating Amare, as expected. I've watched all 3 of their games against the LA teams, and while Stoudemire has definitely shown encouraging flashes of the old Amare, I feel like they're working to get him the ball a lot and he's just not doing much with it--he's averaging just 7 & 3 in 16 minutes per game.

Marion and Nash have been their usual brilliant selves, and Barbosa is really coming on, averaging 19/5/5, but the rest of the team has been off. Boris Diaw is the forgotten man, averaging just 10/4/2 in 26 minutes. In the three games I watched, I don't think they ran the pick-and-roll (his bread & butter) with him more than 5 times combined. Last year that was a staple play for the Suns. Still, offense isn't the problem for them, they're scoring 107.5 per game, just a bit down from the 108 per they scored last year. But they're giving up 110 a game, the worst in the league and 7 PPG worse than last year. And look, I love Jalen Rose, he's my favorite of the Fab Fivers--but he ain't gonna help on D, if you know what I mean. Again, I'm not *too* concerned here, they're a talented team with a great coach, they'll pull it together. But everyone has their doubts whether a team this offense-oriented can win a championship, and they're doing a lot right now to fan those flames. They need Amare to return to being a force on both ends, period.

MIAMI/DETROIT

Miami and Detroit make up the other half of the quartet of underwhelming Conference Finals participants, both getting out to lousy starts on the season. Miami has just been awful offensively, scoring 85 a game. Dwyane Wade has been the one decent player on the team, but he's only scoring 21 a game, down 6 points from last season. He's taking only 5.3 FTs per game, down from almost 11 in 2005-2006. On the plus side, he's shooting over 50% from the floor and is making a three per game. Shaq's already hurt, which really doesn't bode well, although it could end up being just a bruised knee which would get him back on the court soon. Also Jason Williams is expected to begin practicing soon--they desperately need him back to give the offense a shot in the arm.

As for Detroit, they've been up and down. They stunk in an opening loss to Milwaukee, looked decent in beating up on a couple weak sisters (Boston and a Pau-less Memphis), and then played Utah tough on the road. I'm not sure what to make of this team at this point. The problem so far has been defense--they're actually scoring a couple points more per game than last year, but giving up 5 more on defense. Losing Ben Wallace has to change the complexion of this team; they still have talent, but now it's more of a mix between O & D, they aren't going to be just a lockdown defensive team anymore. The transition started last year, and now it's been accelerated with Mohammed taking over for Big Ben. I think they're still figuring that out, but I expect Flip Saunders and a very veteran team will get it straightened out sooner rather than later and for the Pistons to stay among the league's elite.

As for individual players, Rip Hamilton has been his usual solid self, but his running mate Chauncey Billups has just been ice cold to start the season, shooting .311 from the floor and 2-17 from three. He'll get it back, he's been around .400 from three the last five years. And he's been his usual outstanding self in the ballhandling department racking up 33 assists to just 5 turnovers. Rasheed shook off a goose egg in the opener to post three straight strong games, averaging 19 & 11 with 2 blocks per. The goods news with this team is that Nazr Mohammed is off to a solid start, averaging 11 & 9 with 1.8 blocks per through the first four. He's not Ben Wallace, but if he can control the boards, block a couple shots, and give them double figure scoring, he's giving them exactly what the need from him. The bench is still thin, but Flip Murray, Carlos Delfino and Jason Maxiell have all had solid stretches. The minutes are there for the taking with Maxiell, especially with Antonio McDyess out to a horrible start. I expect Dice to bounce back just fine, but they're still awfully thin up front.

THE ROOKIE CLASS

Brandon Roy looks like a serious player, and I think Thabo Sefolosha is going to be the steal of the draft, but it looks like it might be a very thin class after that. I know, I know, give it time, we all thought Andrew Bogut, Ray Felton and Deron Williams were busts-in-the-making at this point last year and look what happened. And now this year you have Bynum, Warrick and Scott May all playing well too. But in the early going, only Adam Morrison, Roy, Rudy Gay and Craig Smith are scoring in double figures (Smith impressively doing it in only 16 minutes per game) -- and Adam Morrison has shown little besides the ability to shoot and Rudy Gay is shooting .333 from the floor.

Sefolosha has been brilliant so far, forcing his way into one of the deepest rotations in the league to the tune of 18 minutes a game and averaging 8/3/2 and shooting .520 from the floor. I also like what Rajon Rondo has done in limited PT, averaging 6/4/3 in 23 minutes with a solid .438 from the floor.

This class has potential, it's going to be a while before many of these guys even get a chance--Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, Randy Foye, LaMarcus Aldridge, et al, but it's been a slow start for the class as a whole.

PLAYERS

Look, Ron Artest is a valuable player and everything, but he just has to use some goddamned common sense. It's one thing for Kobe or T-Mac to force a bunch of stupid shots--they can occasionally make them. But Artest is putting up 17.5 shots per game and shooting .314 from the floor. He's always put up a lot of bad shots and had a poor FG%, but he's just been astonishingly shitty this year. No amount of great defense in the world can make up for tossing up that many bricks a game, especially when you play for a team that has plenty of other scorers. That said, he really is playing some brilliant D, with 18 steals and 6 blocks already in just 4 games. Just, you know--get smarter, Ron. I'll start holding my breath.......now!

Baron Davis looks very healthy, and is in a perfect situation for him with Don Nelson at the helm, but he's off to a terrible start with 16 & 7 per game, and shooting an atrocious .339 from the floor and .143 from three. Impressively, Golden State has still managed to split their first four, which included games at Utah and Dallas and home against the Lakers.

Tracy McGrady is also relatively healthy--and off to a crap-ass start for both the Rockets and my fantasy team. He's playing the distributor with 7 assists a game and only 2.3 turnovers, but 15.8 PPG on .340 shooting (including 1-8 from three) leaves a lot to be desired. Like with Davis, I expect him to turn it around in a hurry.

Continuing the trend of superstars not shooting the ball well to begin the season, Jason Richardson is averaging 14 a game on .346 shooting, Richard Jefferson is at 13.5/.333 and Stephon Marbury is at 12.5/.342. I'm sure JR and RJ will bounce back; Marbury...we'll see.

I expected big things from Jameer Nelson this year and he had a great opener with 21 points. Since then he's put up 14, 4 and 8 points, is averaging 4.8 turnovers per game and fewer than 3 assists, and has been completely outplayed by Carlos Arroyo, who's averaging 17 a game in the early going. There could easily be a lineup change in the works in Orlando.

Tim Thomas is playing a solid all-around game for the Clippers with 11/7/3 and good defense, but he's got to shoot the ball better than .364 from the floor and especially .318 from three. Everybody's playing zone on the Clippers right now and they need Thomas and Mobley to make 'em pay for it.

Friday, November 03, 2006

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3

LAKERS REPORT

I know some of you don't give two squeezes about the Lakers, but hey, I'm feeling a little giddy here, let me have my moment before the team comes crashing back to reality (which should be about the time Mihm & Kwame get healthy).

The Lakers jumped out to a 3-0 start on the season with a 118-112 nailbiter over Seattle in Kobe's debut. The win wasn't impressive--they simply have to beat teams like Seattle at home--but their young big men continued to shine.

Ronny Turiaf inexplicably played only 15 minutes, but went haywire in the 4th and was integral in bringing home the victory. He ended up with 13 & 7 with 3 blocks, including 10 points in the fourth quarter and 2 blocks in the final minute that all but clinched the victory.

Andrew Bynum also had limited PT, but had a solid 9 & 8 with 3 blocks in 23 minutes. He was a real defensive presence in the lane, altering several shots in addition to the three blocks. He did have 5 turnovers, bobbling a bunch of good post entry passes--weird game from someone who has demonstrated fantastic hands in his early career.

But Bynum and Turiaf continue to roll. Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing these guys being made the starters over Mihm & Kwame sooner rather than later. They're the future--might as well make the future now. Mihm and Brown aren't leading you anywhere, except to the bottom of the "points allowed in the paint" category. But there's a 0% chance of this happening under Phil. He likes veterans, he'll go with the tried and untrue and ride them to 46 wins and a first round playoff exit. I don't know, maybe the old man will surprise me.

Kobe looked to be in midseason form, going for 23-4-6 and making countless stupid decisions with the basketball. He had 6 turnovers, and could've had more. He forced a bad drive here, a bad pass there, and then did something brilliant. In short, he was Kobe. He had a great defensive play on Ray Allen with a minute to go and the game still entirely up in the air. He velcroed himself to Allen on a tough drive to the basket, elevated a full head above Allen and forced Allen to throw up basically a teardrop off the glass just to get it over Kobe's hand--a first team all-defense play. Guys like Raja Bell and Chauncey Billups are great defenders, but they can't do what Kobe did on that play.

Odom continued his aggressive play with 28/4/6, nailing 4 threes and getting to the FT line 12 times. He's playing as well as anyone this first week of the season, and it's a great sign that he didn't completely submit to Kobe the way he's done in the past. We need Luke Skywalker and Han Solo, not Batman and gay-ass Robin.

Luke Walton was spectacular too, with 20/8/5 in just 33 minutes. He's also 4-4 from three on the year--it'd be nice if he could improve from his generally cruddy three point shooting in his career up to this point, but I'm not counting on it quite yet. He got destroyed on the defensive end, per usual (although there were also some snafus with the guards on the high pick-and-roll, also per usual with the Lakers), so it's imperative he keep playing at a high level offensively. It's OK to be a horrible defensive player if you're Steve Nash; not so much if you're Kwame Brown (I swear to Christ, if I hear *one more fucking time* that Brown "is actually a pretty good defender"...yeah, he's a good defender only by comparison to his offensive game.)

OTHER GAMES

In brief...

My boy Monta Ellis had 15 in 24 minutes. He's coming. Still gotta give it time, but he's way ahead of schedule.

Brandon Roy had 19/6/5 in another productive game, but struggled from the floor with 5-15 shooting. Gotta love 10 FTAs though.

Minnesota had a nice road win over Denver, rookie Craig Smith (see my darkhorse pick in my rookie column) went off for 20 & 5 in 16 minutes. That's not a misprint. Keep an eye on this cat.

Utah looks good early, picking up a road win over Phoenix. The Jazz killed 'em on the boards, and Amare not coincidentally played only 16 minutes. Note that my other boy Leandro Barbosa got the *start*, and while struggling with his shot still put up 22/6/6. I'm uprading this stock to a strong buy. Diaw was demoted to the bench and didn't do much in only 15 minutes. Not sure what's up there, I'll see if I can figure out what's going on with him.

Continuing the solid road win theme, Sacto took down the apparently overhyped Bulls in Chicago. Kevin Martin followed up his strong 23 point opener with 30 on 10-15 shooting. Another strong buy.

What's with all these road wins? Cleveland edges out the Spurs in San Antonio, Lebron James just too much down the stretch. The King finished with 35/10/4, pretty much clinching an 8-2 week for me in fantasy. Interesting to note that Varejao got the big minutes down the stretch over Gooden. On the other side, another veteran I pretty much called washed up came up huge and made me look like a knob-Tim Duncan looked awfully good, particularly in the 4th, and finished with 25/12/5. He did blow from the FT line and really hurt the team late. But hey, just like with Shaq, you know all the good shit TD brings, and you live with the bad.

Adam Morrison had a nice little shooting night with 21 in 30 minutes on 8-15 shooting and 3-7 from three. But his stat line is awfully empty outside the points and threes--no boards and one assist. Eek. This guy isn't Larry Bird, he's more like Ricky Pierce. Rudy Gay followed up his 21 point opener with a near doughnut--no buckets, 2 FTs, 2 points.

The Knicks blew a chance to get out to a 2-0 start, falling to the Hawks. Eddy Curry had the quintessential Eddy Curry game: unstoppable in the post with 20 on 9-13 shooting, and 2 damn rebounds in 39 minutes. How does that happen? Seriously, how? He's huge, he's strong, he has great hands...he can't fucking rebound. I think it's time to recycle the nickname "Tin Man", 'cause Curry clearly has no heart. Or an enlarged one, one or the other.

Speaking of stock upgrades, Zaza Pachulia's having a nice start to the season, following up a 15 & 12 with 22/7/4. Remember this guy's only 22, he could easily get much better--and it won't take much improvement from last year's numbers to make him a pretty darn good fantasy center.

Andrew Bogut also had a nice followup to his solid opener, putting up 18/7/3 in 30 minutes.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 2

CLIPPERS-NUGGETS

Nice win for the Clippers against a solid Denver team. Denver isn't quite among the league elites, but they're athletic and deep, and a team that's completely healthy for the first time in a while. Not to mention that this was also a game where Brand was sub-par...the elite teams find a way to win when their best player is having an off night, and the Clippers did just that.

Sam Cassell, shut my mouth. Cassell somehow shook off the criticism I heaped upon his shoulders all preseason and looked like the hideous alien freak of old, popping for an unbelievable 35/6/6 last night. I would think my humble blog played some small part in motivating the old man, if only, you know, he had any fucking idea who I was.

Anyway, looks like Ghost of Jim Murray is actually Mike Dunleavy, as Dunleavy/Ghost came to the conclusion that it's not quite yet Livingston time & demoted the youngster to the bench. I wouldn't worry too much about the 13 minutes of PT for Livingston, I think that was just a one-game anomaly. Cassell was playing out of his mind, and he can't go 35 minutes a night anyway. I go back to my original prediction: they split time to start the year and Livingston gets more and more of the minutes as the season progresses. No reason to burn out Cassell before the playoff run.

Maggette had a nice game after his bout with food poisoning, apparently well past the "12 hours of all-orifice expulsion" stage. He had 13/7/2 in 29 minutes with 10 FT attempts. I expect him to be around those numbers all year. Maybe a bit higher in PPG, but they're so deep, I don't think he'll go for 20 a night like he did two years ago.

Tim Thomas had a great game with 21 points & 5 threes. There was obviously a huge concern coming into the year that Thomas would revert back to being...well...Tim Thomas, instead of the active & hard-working player he was with Phoenix. Personally, I think he looks great in the first two games. He's active, he's playing decent defense, he's rebounding, and he's 6-13 from three. So far, so good.

On the other side, I like what JR Smith gives them. I like it, I don't love it. He had 21 points and knocked down 4 threes (in *11* attempts!). He's going to get those open outside shots all day as teams try to stop Melo, Miller and their bigs in the paint--if he can knock down 35+% of his threes, that really opens things up for the rest of the team. Denver has quite a bit of talent, but they just keep heading into season after season with almost no deep threat. Seems like these guys are a dime a dozen, why can't they snag an Eddie House type of gunner?

Nene looked good with 10 & 7 in just 14 minutes. He's an active, energetic player, he can be productive if he stays healthy. Maybe not "10 fucking million dollars a year" productive, but productive.

Camby was huge in his quest to be Defensive Player of the Year, with 16 & 18 and 4 blocks. He also threw in 4 assists for good measure.

Andre Miller stunk up the joint sideways, shooting 0-11 from the floor--an embarassment when you're being guarded mostly by a 47-year-old alien with down's syndrome. Kenyon Martin wasn't fantastic, but he was healthy and active, and that's the big thing. He snagged 10 boards, but struggled with his offensive game quite a bit.

SPURS-MAVERICKS

Wow, there's a lot of talent on these two teams. And I can't believe how sharp they were for the first week of the season. The quality of basketball wasn't much worse than in their epic playoff series last year.

The Spurs won on the road, which is obviously a great win, and looked very impressive doing it.

All the talk about Duncan being "the healthiest he's been in years" might be somewhat overstated, he still looks a bit creaky and slow to me. I suppose any mobility at all is better than last year, but let's get one thing straight--this still isn't the 2002-2003 Duncan, and I don't think we're ever going to see that guy again. He's got a lot of mileage on him and suffered a lot of injuries--big and small--over the years. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's still one of the best players in the league. I'm just saying he appears to me to be past his absolute peak.

The Spurs started Fabricio Oberto at center, but I don't know how long he can hold off Francisco Elson. I always liked Elson in Denver, and he played well last night with 12 & 6 with 2 blocks in 26 minutes (compared to 4 & 2 with 1 block in 15 minutes for Oberto). The Spurs also have the promising Jackie Butler, who played pretty well for the Knicks last year in limited minutes. How do they keep piling up quality big men when half the teams in the league are throwing guys like Vitaly Potapenko and Mark Madsen on the floor?

Speakign of quality big men, Dampier and Diop might not exactly be Olajuwon and Sampson (pre-injury), but they rebound and play D, giving the Mavs a better center situation than 90% of the rest of the league. The two-headed monster had a strong start to the season, combining for 11 & 14 with 4 blocks. Dampier, however, in an effort to disprove my notion that he's a solid player, inexplicably turned the ball over 5 times. How many goddamn times did he even touch the ball on offense, like 7? Nice hands, big fella.

Josh Howard was his usual ubiqitous self, making plays all over the court. He put up very good numbers with 20/6/4 with a steal & 2 blocks, possibly proving Speer right that he's ready to make that jump to the cusp of the fantasy elite.

Dirk had a quiet night with just 21, but played only 32 minutes because of foul trouble (which included a couple bullshit calls, IMO).

Austin Croshere stepped nicely into the Van Horn role (in fact I thought he *was* Van Horn for the entire first half)--12 points in 15 minutes, including a couple threes. Nice pickup for them, he's a good player if all you ask him to do is shoot.

Devin Harris got off to a disappointing start with just 2 points in 14 minutes on 1-6 shooting. I still think he's going to break out this year--not to superstardom, but somewhere between superstardom and "good 20-minute guy off the bench". He's just too damned quick and athletic not to be better than a 20-minute guy; in today's NBA, being able to get to the basket at will is practically the most valuable skill a player can have.

A "DNP -- Coach's Decision" for Maurice Ager. He'll get some minutes down the line, though, Dallas will be in plenty of blowouts where they can throw Ager out there and see what he can do. I like him a lot--incredible athlete, good shooter, good ballhandler, gets to the basket, decent defender. He won't be a factor on this year's team, but I like his chances of turning into a solid rotation guy a couple of years out.

Thursday, November 02, 2006

Wednesday Night Lights

Quick note: Ghost of Jim Murray, I agree with pretty much everything you said--which makes your comments wise and insightful--with the exception of the Knicks win total. I agree they'll be better this year, I agree that the additions of Jeffries and Balkman will help, but I still don't see them doing much better than .500, even in their crappy division & conference. I think they have a lot of talent, but it's a weird collection of players, I'm not sure if it'll all fit. I'll say one thing--if they win 48 games, I will completely revise my opinion of Isiah's coaching ability, because this ain't the easiest team in the world to coach.

My opinion of his ability as a GM is unlikely to change.


Lakers

Another day, another impressive victory. OK, it was Golden State, but (a) it was on the road, (b) it was one of the 7 games this year Baron Davis will be at 100%, and (c) the Lakers are still missing The Franchise & their starting big men. Taken together, that makes for a very impressive performance.

As with the opener, the scrubs came through with flying colors. Instead of Andrew Bynum (who still had decent production in very limited minutes due to foul trouble), it was Ronny Turiaf going for 23-9-3 and a couple steals & blocks. To say that was out of left field is an understatement--those numbers are probably more than he's had in any three previous games combined. I mean, he's an active player and everything, but he was sensational last night, going for 14 in the 3rd period alone when the Lakers blew the game wide open.

Odom was brilliant once again, with 22-9-9, and the rookie Farmar played 24 strong minutes, ending with a solid 9 & 4.

This is an exciting team. I'm trying not to get ahead of myself here, but these young guys are showing a lot of promise. It'll be interesting to see if they can keep this dynamic going when Kobe comes back and starts launching 35 shots a night. I don't know---maybe Kobe had a religious awakening in the playoffs last year and now understands he has to be more of a facilitator for this team to win. I hope so.

Golden State

On the other side, I was impressed with Baron Davis, even though he had a bad night shooting the ball. You forget how ridiculously athletic the guy is until you see him at 100%. If he can stay healthy--huge if, obviously--and they get something out of Dunleavy, Murphy & Pietrus (you know J-Rich will get his 22-6-3 every night), I think they can potentially compete for that #8 playoff spot.

I also love Monta Ellis. He showed some serious flashes of potential las year, and from the game last night, it appears that he's way ahead of schedule. He went for 22 in 22 minutes, on 7-10 shooting. He can't do much else but score right now, but he can do that in spades. Looks like the Warriors might have found themselves another great second round pick--hopefully this will turn out better for them than the Gilbert Arenas situation.

Clippers

A bit of a disappointing start to the season, but you knew Phoenix would be up in their home opener after losing the previous night.

As predicted, Livingston is the starter at PG and getting big minutes. He generally shot the ball poorly, but did knock down a couple threes, a great sign. Only 3 assists, but the Clippers missed a lot of open shots that cost him assists. They were posting up Livingston against the Warriors' smaller guards and a lot of good things happened--but Livingston has to finish off those good moves, and the Clippers' shooters have to knock down their shots.

The Clippers started Brand at center and had Kaman come off the bench to better match up with the smaller Suns, but I personally feel like that plays right into their hands. If you have a size advantage, why not use it? Sure, Kaman can't guard Boris Diaw, but we saw in the playoffs last year that Diaw sure as hell can't defend Kaman or keep him off the boards. Why do exactly what Phoenix wants you to do?

Corey Maggette only played 6 minutes due to a bout of food poisoning.

Suns

On the Suns side, Nash and Marion were back to their usual awesome selves. Amare looked great too, playing 24 minutes and collecting 15 & 4 with 2 blocks. Most of that came in the first half, he slowed down a bit in the second. Still, he looked a lot like his old active and explosive self for solid stretches.

Barbosa came back to earth with 11 points, but also chipped in 7 boards and 4 assists--and the bit thing here is minutes; for the second game in a row, he got over 35 minutes of PT. If he gets minutes, he *will* put up great numbers.

Other Games

Indiana started a Harrington-Granger-O'Neal frontcourt, as expected. Jasikevicius hit for 20 & 5 in 21 minutes; he can really shoot the ball, but was streaky last year.

On the Hornets side, Gerald Wallace left the game early with a back injury after a hard foul, his status is up in the air.

Adam Morrison had decent numbers in his debut with 14-3-2. Still, he got almost all of that in the first half, and struggled from the field with 5-13 shooting. Emeka Okafor went for 19 & 13 with *6* blocks, but also shot poorly from the field, a disturbing trend with him. How does a 6'10 guy shoot 41% from the floor?

Orlando looked good, taking apart the Bulls by 15. Dwight Howard wreaked havoc on Ben Wallace & PJ Brown, going for 27 & 11. On the Bulls side, I really like this Thabo Sefolosha guy, he can fill it up--13 in 20 minutes on 5-7 shooting.

In Atlanta, Shelden Williams got the start at PF but did nothing with it. 0 points and 3 boards in 16 minutes as Philly rolled to a double digit victory.

Chris Paul got off to a fantastic start with 20/7/10 with just one turnover as New Orleans won their opener on the road. Peja struggled, but you know he'll get his shot going soon. Sczerbiak shot the ball poorly, but got 36 minutes, a good sign regarding his health.

New Jersey knocked off Toronto, with their big three--Vince, Kidd & Jefferson--doing most of the damage. Krstic had a solid 14 & 7 in just 23 minutes, and Marcus Williams looked healthy. He shot poorly, but had 7 & 3 with a surprising 8 boards.

King James took over down the stretch and led Cleveland to a nailbiter victory over Washington. He ended up with 26/10/5, and his running mate Larry Hughes had a huge first game with 27/9/5, 3 threes & no turnovers. That's a great sign for Cleveland, it's crucial for them that Hughes plays like a $10M/year player this season.

On the other side, Gilbert Arenas stunk up the joint with 2-12 shooting and 7 points, already matching the number of times he was under double figures last year with *one*. He did have 5 boards and 11 assists--the guy isn't *just* a gunner.

The Bucks came into Detroit and pulled off the upset behind Michael Redd's huge night--37 points on 14-22 shooting. Bogut had a nice game with 16/9/3. Charlie Villanueva put up 21 shots in 33 minutes, making only 6 and living up the nickname some of the Toronto people hung on him when he was there--little Antoine Walker. Still, he's a good player, he'll come around.

The Pistons struggled on offense, shooting just .431 for the game. Rip & Billups were solid with 20+ each, but Rasheed was awful, pulling a doughnut in 22 minutes. Nazr Mohammed played so-so, getting a solid 8 & 12 in 28 minutes, but he got outplayed by Bogut and fouled out of the game.

Minnesota beat Sacramento in a good barometer game for each of them. Kevin Martin got the start in Sacto and put up 23 & 5 in big minutes, a great start to the season. Artest shot a putrid 6-24; look for a lot more of those kinds of nights. Good player, but poor judgment--on and off the court.

Randy Foye only got 6 minutes; as expected, it looks like it'll be a rough start to the season for him, disappointing after all the summer league hype.

The Knicks pulled out a W over Memphis, but don't get too excited, Memphis is horrible without Gasol. Eddy Curry was huge with 41 minutes and 17 & 14 with 3 blocks. He produces if he gets (and can phsyically handle) the minutes. Quentin Richardson looked healthy and damned good, playing 56 minutes (!) and going for 31 on 10-13 shooting and 5-5 from three.

On the other side, Hakim Warrick got off to a nice start after a disappointing rookie season with 22 & 12 in 42 minutes. With Gasol out and Swift recovering from injury, minutes are there for the taking. Rudy Gay had 21 & 8, but shot a poor 8-21 from the floor. Probably many more games like that on the horizon. He did have an impressive 4 blocks though.

Portland started off the season with a bang; sure it was Seattle, but any road victory is a good sign for Portland. And an even better sign was Brandon Roy going for 20 on 10-16 shooting. It's obviously way early, but he's head and shoulders above everyone at this point as the favorite for rookie of the year. Zach Randolph also got off to a great start with 30 & 10 in 33 minutes.

As for Seattle, it's a bad sign when you get 20+ from Allen, Lewis & Ridnour, and 17 and 6 in just 23 minutes from Wilcox, and still lose to fucking *Portland*. They're not good.

And finally, Utah looked very impressive in knocking off Houston by 10, especially with Kirilenko doing almost nothing in 24 minutes (other than sabotaging my fantasy team). Boozer continued his strong play from the end of last year with 24 & 19, as did Deron Williams with 18 & 10 against only 2 turnovers. Utah is a solid team. Not spectacular, but solid. They could make a play for that #8 playoff spot this year.

As for Houston, it was a lot like last year--good production from McGrady and Ming ( but not enough), and not much in the way of a supporting cast. Battier didn't do much, but was saddled with foul trouble. Bonzi Wells and Juwan Howard were out, so they have hope. Also Kirk Snyder played a solid game with 13/3/3 in 31 minutes, he's not a bad player.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Opening Night Thoughts

Lakers-Suns

Wow. Wow. I'm shocked at what I just saw. The Lakers, down 15 after the first quarter, came roaring back to outscore the Suns by 23 the rest of the way and take a 114-106 victory--without Kobe!--as well as starting C/PF Chris Mihm & Kwame Brown.

Andrew Bynum's performance was astonishing. This is a guy who turned 19 a few days ago, and he's out there putting up 18 & 9 -- with five assists -- in just 23 minutes! And at least two of those assists were just brilliant passes. Bynum has a ton of talent and his potential is through the roof. I don't want to get ahead of myself here, something tells me he'll be lucky to average half those numbers the rest of the year, but look, he's ginormous, he has the best hands of any young big man in the league since Shaq, he has great court vision and is a gifted passer, and now even has a few post scoring moves, including a Kareem-inspired and -taught baby hook on the baseline. He still has a lot of work to do, especially on defense, and I have a feeling this game will look like a real anomaly by the end of the year, but I saw enough to be extremely excited about this kid's potential.

The flip side of Bynum's performance is Phoenix's utter and complete inability to defend post scorers. We saw it last year in the playoffs with Kwame Brown, and then moreso with Brand and Kaman, now they're getting punished by someone a year and a day out of high school. They need Amare, I think that's pretty clear now. Not necessarily to score--although you could see last night they don't have many options when their shooting goes cold; luckily it doesn't happen very often--but on the boards and on the defensive end. Amare isn't a great defender, but he at least puts some fear into a legit big man, which Diaw certainly does not (although he does as well as you could reasonably expect from a 6'8 skinny Euro). I mean, they had to double Bynum in the post--double *Andrew Bynum*. That's a problem. Imagine if Kobe had been in the game...if you're doubling Bynum, Kobe's going for 60.

Lamar Odom was a warrior, going to the basket at will, controlling the boards, playing great transition defense, and running the offense like a general. I just don't understand why he's not this aggressive when Kobe's in the game. Sure, Kobe takes a million shots, but it's not like Odom never has the ball, or is never isolated on a defender--it happens *all the goddamn time*. There's no reason he can't do exactly what he did tonight for the rest of the season. But it won't happen, you can absolutely etch that in stone. No way. Great, great player, but he just doesn't have a great player's mentality. Deferring to an even greater player is one thing, scoring 15 a game is another. Like Charles Barkley said last night, Lamar Odom is too good of a player to have 34 be his career high. He just has to be more aggressive for the Lakers to be an elite team, and I don't see it happening.

Maurice Evans with 17 & 4 with 3 steals in 29 minutes, on 8-13 shooting too. He obviously won't keep that up the whole year or anything, but I liked what I saw of him in Detroit and I like what I've seen of him so far in LA in preseason and game one. He's an athletic, active player who has a nice shooting stroke and rebounds and defends well. Very nice pickup for them, very nice.

Radmanovic wasn't great, like he's been the entire preseason. His hand injury is really affecting his shot--he was 4-7 from the floor, but had several layups. His outside shots were all way, way off. He did have a few rebounds and made some nice touch passes in traffic. He's a surprisingly good all-around player, he just needs to get his hand back to normal and regain his shooting stroke.

Jordan Farmar played well in limited minutes, scoring 6 on 3-3 shooting, including a couple tough finishes at the basket. He probably won't be a huge factor this year, but if he can keep giving them a strong 10-15 minutes, it'll help a lot.

On the other end, the problem for the Suns--besides their terrible defense--was that their outside shooting went stone cold after the first quarter and they didn't seem to have any other options. I don't know why they didn't go to the pick-and-roll with Diaw and Stoudemire...Diaw took 2 shots for the entire game. That doesn't make any sense to me.

Amare looked pretty decent in his limited action, picking up 6 points in 11 minutes, including a damned fine looking highlight reel dunk in the first quarter on which he looked a lot like the old Amare. Be patient, Suns fans--they need Amare to be as healthy as he can possibly be when the playoffs roll around, even at the cost of losing games now. And this game as an anomaly, we know from experience the Suns are good enough to win 55 games without Amare. Some issues were raised in this game, but your team always looks like shit when nobody can hit an open jumper.

Nobody, that is, except Barbosa. Last night was a great demonstration of why I consider Barbosa one of the most entertaining players to watch in the entire league. He went for 30 in 37 minutes with 6 threes and a variety of blow-by moves. He's just an amazing player, an unstoppable scoring machine. If the Suns hadn't had that kind of performance out of him, the game would have been a complete blowout.

Nash & Marion were both subpar, but no big deal, you know full well they'll be back to their usual selves by tonight (they better be, with the Clippers in town). Nash still reeled off 13 assists, but didn't shoot the ball well. Marion had just 16 & 7, and while he did get 4 blocks, spent the night getting mostly destroyed by Lamar Odom on both ends of the floor.

Pussy flopper Raja Bell* couldn't hit the broadside of a barn all night. I wondered why they didn't bring in James or Jumaine Jones to see if they could get something going. The shots were there, as they always are against the Lakers, they just didn't have anyone besides Barbosa knocking 'em down.

*And Speer, my problem with Bell isn't the clothesline on Kobe. Nothing wrong with a little hard foul in the playoffs. My problem is the guy flops more than anyone in the league--by far, and still constantly bitches to the refs even though he somehow gets superstar defensive calls all of a sudden. I mean, he's a good defender, but how the fuck did he start getting Artest/Bowen/Kobe calls? He's nowhere near their level, IMO.

Marcus Banks looked like he'll be a great fit there. He ran wild in the open floor and put up 8-3-2 in 19 minutes. He did turn the ball over 4 times, he needs to settle down out there a bit.

Chicago-Miami

What can you say, sometimes shit happens. If I'm a Miami fan, I'm not *too* worried. Sure, it looks like all your old players simultaneously got shitty, the same way it happened to the 2002-2003-2004 Lakers, but I really think this was just one of those things, where shittiness keeps piling up and building on itself until you find yourself on the other end of a 40 point asswhipping.

Now if I'm a Chicago fan, I'm pretty damn excited. Their defense was just unreal, and they absolutely dominated the boards. The rookies played great, getting minutes mostly when the game was out of hand. Tyrus Thomas was super-active, like you'd expect, picking up 4-5-2 with a steal and 2 blocks, and Thabo Sefolosha went for 11 in 10 minutes on 4-4 from the floor, and demonstrated a very nice shooting stroke. I saw a play late in the game where he had a defender all over him with the shotclock running down, he just rose up from about 17 feet and drained a jumper--it was Kobe-esque. I did a total double take. He probably won't do much this year at all, but it looks like Chicago might have yet *another* good young player on its hands.

Nobody on Miami got into double figures other than Wade, who went for 25 in 34 minutes on 10-15 shooting...includign 2-3 from three. As I've said before, it seemed from last year's playoffs and the World Championships that he was really shooting the three much better. If he can start knocking that down consistently, my god, how are you going to defend him? Of course, if the rest of the team shoots the way they did last night (1-14 from three), you can just gear the entire defense up to stop Wade. But I think they'll get it together. The team has talent, they'll be fine.

Shaq was terrible, but he's the kind of guy who really takes the night off when a blowout seems to be in the works. Still, he stunk it up in the early going when the blowout wasn't obvious. I had heard all about how (relatively) skinny and in shape he was--looked exactly the same to me as he did last year.

The Bulls got a huge game from Hinrich, who went for 26, and *Duhon*, with 20 in 16 minutes (which included some garbage time) on 7-8 shooting. Deng and Nocioni had solid production, and Wallace and PJ Brown controlled the paint. Ben Gordon stunk, but you know he can fill it up, he just had an off night.

Very nice all-around performance from the Bulls. I still don't think they can win a championship--not this year, at least...but I'm a hell of a lot less sure about that then I was yesterday. Their defense is really amazing, and you Pistons fans know what can happen when you get 7-8 talented and athletic guys all buying into the system and busting their ass on D. This team is young, athletic, talented, and hungry as hell. Nice combo to have.