GAMES 1

I think there were a lot of similarities between the first games of each series. Detroit and LA played sloppy and missed a lot of shots they usually make, and each got themselves into a big hole in the third quarter and spent the rest of the game trying to claw their way back. But there were two major differences:

1. LA was at home

The Lakers had a hell of a lot more riding on the game; losing game one at home would have put them in a giant hole, while the Pistons losing on the road only means they have 3 more chances to steal home court advantage instead of 4--given that you take care of business at home, of course.

2. LA has Kobe

Detroit came out in the third quarter and played terrible basketball, missing easy shots, turning the ball over like crazy, and playing lax defense. The Lakers did the same, and both teams fell behind by double digits. Then they both came storming back to cut the lead down to 5 or so, but the Pistons couldn't close the deal and the Lakers did.

Detroit just never had a go-to guy down the stretch. Rasheed wasn't feeling it in the post, missing shots that he's usually money on, Hamilton was ice cold, and Chauncey was stiff and had trouble getting into the flow of the offense all game long. You could see the Pistons' uncertainty at crunch time, they had like 5 straight crucial possessions where they seemed unsure of what they wanted to do offensively. That's what happens when you're a jumpshooting team and your big 3 shooters are all cold at the same time.

Meanwhile the Lakers had no such uncertainty. The ball went to Kobe, and Kobe either scored or drew the defense and dished off to a teammate. San Antonio played great defense down the stretch, it's just that, like I always say, sometimes you get Kobe'ed--the same way the Lakers damn near got Duncan'ed.

Going forward, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about both teams. I feel like the Pistons can shut down Ray Allen, they almost never get beat by big time shooters and Allen looks completely out of sorts right now anyway--he's averaging 12.5 ppg in 15 playoff games on 38% shooting. Yikes.

So that leaves KG, Pierce and Rondo. I think Rondo's going to continue to be a problem; the Pistons struggle against quick penetrators, and Rondo is becoming one of the better ones in the league. As for Pierce and Garnett, they both had great games Wednesday, but I also thought the Pistons forced them into a lot of tough shots, especially KG. If Garnett is taking a bunch of fadeaway jumpers in the post, I like my chances. He's a good post scorer, not a great one--he's not Rasheed (of course Rasheed isn't 'post-scoring-Rasheed' 75% of the time either).

Meanwhile the Pistons played a really ugly game, with no one playing well other than McDyess and Stuckey. Sure, the Celts' defense had something to do with that, but not everything--I saw a ton of missed shots by the big 4 (Sheed, Rip, Chauncey & Tayshaun) that they usually make, and that spate of turnovers in the third that put them behind the eight ball was completely uncharacteristic of the Pistons.

So the bottom line is that the Pistons played a poor game, with a dinged up/rusty Billups, and they were still only down 6 late in the fourth on the road to a 66-win team that played pretty well. I'd definitely make the Celtics the favorite, but I think Detroit still has a solid chance to pull this thing off.

As for the Spurs-Lakers game, nothing that happened in game one has changed my way of thinking. I think the Lakers will win, but the series is going to be a dogfight from start to finish. I love what the Lakers did to Parker & Ginobili; if they can keep them out of the lane, they'll win the series. I just don't know if they can do that.

Duncan was awesome, he forced the Lakers to break their cardinal rule against double teaming in the post. Luckily all the Spurs' shooters went cold at once, because they were getting some good looks. Ginobili stunk in particular; he may or may not be still dinged up, it's hard to tell if he was hurting or just having a crappy game, but he wasn't the same slashing, driving, defense-destroying force he usually is against the Lakers.

I guess I don't expect Duncan to be that good tomorrow, but I also don't expect Ginobili to be that bad. I think game two will be a lot like game one, both teams struggling a bit on offense as the officials call "Spurball"--i.e., anything goes on defense. I don't know if Kobe can put the team on his back like he did last night, but then maybe Odom and Fisher won't completely blow either. I'll take the Lakers to win it, but I'll be surprised if it's not ugly and close at the end.

THE FUTURE OF THE CAVS

I think this is the time Danny Ferry needs to be very smart, very patient, and very tough, because it's about to get real ugly in Cleveland. James is going to (somewhat understandably) throw a hissy fit this summer over his teammates sucking so bad, while Kobe, KG, and Chris Paul are all fighting for glory. And everyone in the state of Ohio is probably wetting their pants at the idea of Lebron bolting in two years. So what is a GM to do?

Here's the thing--you can't do much. Yet. If Cleveland tries to get better immediately, it's going to mean very slight improvement at very high cost. They're not going to get a Pau Gasol dropped into their laps, it'll be more like old, overpaid, declining players (e.g., Jason Kidd) who will be available for the crappy pieces Cleveland has to deal. Those kind of moves probably aren't going to make you a championship team, and more importantly, you're blowing cap space.

The only thing the Cavs have going for them right now is they have no long term contracts. Right now the only contract they have past the 2009-2010 season is James's option year for 2010-2011. That's it--in the summer of 2010, when James is deciding whether to opt out, and if so, where he's going to spend the next 5 years of his career, you finally have a hell of a lot of salary cap freedom. In some years, cap space isn't all that valuable, but not 2010; here are just a few players who either have an opt-out that year or are straight free agents: Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, and Manu Ginobili. Um, yeah.

If Cleveland plays their cards right, they'll be one of the few teams that have the cap space to offer a max contract, and they'll be able to offer a player like Dwyane Wade the opportunity to play with Lebron and compete for championships. Dwayne Wade...now that's a rebuilding plan.

I think Ferry can learn from Lakers' GM Mitch Kupchak here--everyone might hate your guts, the star player might publically question your competence, you might be hanging by a thread...but if you stick to your guns and your plan works (don't forget the Lakers had the best record in the West when Bynum got injured and Gasol wasn't even on the radar screen), everyone will be falling all over themselves to proclaim your genius. You'll be the toast of the town.

You just can't win right now, there's no possible quick fix. Nobody wants Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak or Zydrunas Ilgauskas for what you're paying them, and you don't have any potential-laden young players to tempt a team with a disgruntled superstar (like a Vince Carter or Ron Artest, which is a dicey move anyway). The best bet is to hang tough, ignore the calls for your head and Lebron's demands, and stick with your best bet--adding a Wade or Bosh or Amare in 2010. James might be pissed as hell at you and the franchise by that time, but if you can deliver him a sidekick like Wade I guarantee he jumps at it the same way Kobe quickly embraced the enormously improved Andrew Bynum.

8 WINS DOWN, 8 TO GO

Wait, we're only at the halfway point?!

Well that was one tough mother of a series, every game was an absolute war. Partially because Utah plays so physical and tough, partially because they're a bunch of friggin' hackers. Boozer's 6th foul tonight was classic--he gets his 5th foul with, I don't know 5-7 minutes left, then he promptly goes out and commits about 4 or 5 fouls (or at least arguably so), before finally fouling out by outright climbing over a Laker players' back on an offensive rebound.

I mean, maybe he was just going hellbent out of desperation and taking his chances he wouldn't get a whistle, but I think it's more that he's a pretty dumb and undisciplined player. I love him, he's a great player and he plays hard as hell, but he's a terrible defender and a major hacker.

Chris Paul is probably already a top 5 point guard of all time...and Deron Williams is about 95% as good. He can shoot the lights out, he can handle and pass almost as well as Paul, and he's an excellent defender. Paul gets the steals, but I think Williams is a better position defender.

And fucking Paul Millsap! Cripes, how good is this guy? He's got crazy, insane athleticism; Lamar--who's pretty darned athletic himself--flat out couldn't handle him. I think Millsap has a good chance of being a big time player in the league. He's a free agent after next year or maybe the year after, I wonder what Utah will do. He's oozing potential, but he's a Boozer clone and you can't really play either of them at center for long stretches because they're both about 6'8. If I'm a team that already has a superstar, I'd go hard after him. Maybe Seattle with Durant, Millsap's toughness would be a good counterbalance to Durant's finesse game.

Utah is a really, really good team. Once they get more experience (especially with guys like Millsap, Brewer, CJ Miles), I think they're going to be in the championship mix with New Orleans, LA, Portland, etc. The only thing is, has a team ever won a championship with interior defenders as bad as Boozer & Okur? Can't think of any. Maybe they can offer Okur & Millsap for like...well, shit, I don't know who. Good rebounding/defensive centers don't grow on trees. It's not like many teams have a 7'1, 290 pound, 20-year-old future superstar just waiting on the bench for next year... :o)

God I hope New Orleans beats San Antonio, and not just because I think it's an easier matchup for the Lakers--I think both teams are fantastic and either series will be a war. But a Hornets series will be fun win or lose, watching Kobe's and Paul's greatness, Gasol's finesse vs. Chandler's power, Odom's and West's all around game, Peja vs. Sasha for the title of best shooting Croatian, etc. That's fun. That's something to be excited about.

But a Spurs series wouldn't be fun at all. It'd be like Michigan football under Carr, every game an ugly battle, no real enjoyment to be had even after a win...only relief. I don't want to watch Ginobili and Oberto flopping around, I don't want to watch Bruce Bowen grabbing, shoving and holding Kobe for 7 straight games, I don't want to see Duncan and Thomas hacking the shit out of Gasol & Odom, I don't want to see 75% of the close calls go to San Antonio...just please, please, New Orleans, finish these buttlicks off once and for all.

PLAYOFF THOUGHTS

HOME COURT

We're 16 games into the conference semifinals and the road team is 1-15, the Pistons getting the solitary win at Orlando in an epic battle. The average margin of victory in the Boston-Cleveland series is 14; in the San Antonio-New Orleans series, it's 17. 7 of the 16 games have been decided by more than 15 points. The line on game 3 of the Utah-Los Angeles series jumped 12 points from game 2, from LA -7 to Utah -5. The line for game 5 (heading back to LA) jumped 10 points from game 4, from Utah -1.5 to LA -8.5--and that's with Kobe at less than 100%.

To sum up, home court advantage is really getting out of hand. When half the games are blowouts between two evenly matched teams, you know you have a problem. I do think teams just play better at home, I don't think it's entirely the officiating, but clearly officiating is the biggest culprit. The Jazz-Lakers series provides the best example. The games at Utah were ugly, physical affairs--Jazz style basketball. I'm not saying the Lakers got screwed on some inconsistent calls, I think the officiating was more or less fair; the games were just called loosely for both teams, and that means Utah's physical style was favored.

Look, I don't think it's an accident that Utah was 37-4 at home (best record in the league) and 17-24 on the road (13th best). They play a style that's not going to win many games when the game is being called tight, and is going to win a lot when it's being called loose. The problem isn't the inconsistency of the tight/loose standard, it's that every game in Utah is called loose, and that's not a coincidence.

The differences between teams at this stage are very, very small, having a game officiated in a certain way makes for a massive advantage that's being reflected in the outcomes and the Vegas lines. I'd normally ask that an officiating crew pick a standard and stick with it, but when that standard is always the one that's beneficial to the home team, you have a problem. I don't think that's the only officiating problem, I also think the home team typically gets a handful of calls that would go the other way in the other city, but that's probably true in every sport.

The NBA needs to do something about this, it's completely out of control. You can't have the home team winning 15 out of 16, you can't have 12 point swings in Vegas, you can't have every other game being a blowout. I stil think these playoffs can be salvaged, but it's been awfully disappointing to date.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Man, that Boston-Cleveland series is brutal, it's damn near unwatchable. Both teams are playing outstanding defense, but the officiating has also been extremely loose (falling in line with my "home team gets the officiating standard it wants" theory above--the problem is that both teams want the same defense-friendly standard that results in fugly basketball). Nobody's going to score a lot of points when you have two good defensive teams who are allowed a high level of contact, not even Lebron, KG, Pierce and Allen.

For me, this series is simple--either the Cavs' role players knock down their shots, or they lose. An opponent can take away a player even as a great as Lebron if they commit enough resources to him, and the only way you can get all those defenders off his back is by having your scrubs make them pay for it. I've seen this a million times with Kobe; Kwame Brown and Smush Parker couldn't make the other team pay for putting all its defensive focus on stopping Kobe; Pau Gasol and Sasha Vujacic are another story. I'd also say that Kobe can deal with that kind of defense better than Lebron, given his superior ballhandling and shooting skills. If you "make Kobe into a jumpshooter", you might catch him cold--or he might bury you. With Lebron, if you sag off him, crowd the lane, and give him the jumper, you have a good chance of holding him down. I think that's the very slight difference between Kobe and Lebron at this stage of Lebron's career--it's just a little easier to take LBJ out of his game than Kobe. Not easy...easier.

Cleveland's scrubs came up big in games 3 and 4 with Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, etc. If they can keep it up, we'll get to see what strategic move Boston makes, and whether that move opens things up for Lebron. But bottom line, with two games left in Boston, they have to be considered a huge favorite.

As for the Pistons-Magic series, I think it's over with or without Billups. I guess you can never truly count Orlando out of any one game, you never know when they're going to pull one of those "13-24 from three" games, but I don't see any way in hell they take 3 straight (with 2 of them at Detroit).

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Spurs-Hornets series could be fantastic if every game wasn't a blowout. The margins of victory have been 19, 18, 11 and 20. Wow. Fun. This potentially could end up great, though, despite what's happened in the first four games. Vegas has this series essentially as a pick 'em. I think most people (including myself) see San Antonio as the better team, but New Orleans has the huge advantage of having 2 of the last 3 games at home.

Can San Antonio win in a place where they got crushed in the first two games? I think they will. Parker and Ginobili have been phenomenal, Tyson Chandler is having trouble containing Duncan without getting into foul trouble, and the Spurs made a great strategy move putting defensive ace Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic (who buried them in games 1 & 2) instead of Chris Paul, who Bowen can't guard anyway. Peja was 5-16 from the floor and 1-4 from three in games 3 & 4, after 17-28 and 7-11 in games 1 & 2. The Spurs are "letting" Paul put up big numbers (by putting Parker on him, who can't guard anyone), but clamping down on everyone else, and it seems to be working...but let's just wait until it works on the road.

As for the Lakers, I think they're sitting somewhat pretty. They lost two heartbreakers in Utah, but at least they played it close on the road instead of getting blown out like most road teams have done in these playoffs. But christ, they had that goddamn game yesterday!! Kobe's back worries me a lot, the Lakers' room for error is razor thin. It doesn't sound like there's any possibility of him missing games, but the Lakers also struggle when he's less than 100%. Here's the problem--when he's dinged up, he turns into a jumpshooter. But the Lakers have plenty of shooters, what they need is a guy who can break down the defense, and only Kobe can do that.

Vegas has the Lakers at around 78% to win it, that sounds about right to me--any higher and I'd jump on a Utah bet. I don't know if they can win in LA, but they have two chances and one or both of those might feature something less than the full Kobe experience.

I think if the officials keep calling games tight in LA, the Lakers will win in 7 (with a solid shot of ending it in game 6, both games in Utah have been close). But if the trend breaks, if a game gets called loose, that's how I see Utah having a chance to pull this thing off. The Lakers are a very good team, but they're pretty soft, especially up front with Gasol, Odom, Radmanovic, and Walton*. Utah is big, physical and tough, they thrive in those free-for-alls. It's funny, teams like that are almost always defensive-minded, but that's not Utah; they're a great offensive team and mediocre on defense. But when the game is physical and the refs are letting a lot of contact go, Utah becomes a pretty good defensive team while still having the toughness and strength to score points.

Count me as confident, but concerned. This series is far from over.

*Andrew Bynum, of course, changes everything on the softness/toughness front. If the Lakers stay healthy next year, I think they can make a run at a 65-70 win season.

RAJON RONDO ON THE RISE

I'm sitting here watching Rajon Rondo tear apart the Cleveland Cavaliers' defense, and I'm getting the feeling he's going to bust out big time over the next couple of years. It seems like every time I see him play, he's gotten 10% better than the last time. I've been thinking for a while that the Pistons might rather see the Celtics than the Cavs (who obviously give them fits) in the conference finals, but Rondo's recent play has forced me to change my mind.

Chauncey Billups is still a good defender, but those super-quick guys like Rondo give him problems. It's the same with Jason Kidd, he can still handle the bigger, slower PGs just fine, but when you throw him on a Chris Paul, it gets ugly fast. Billups isn't quite so far gone as Kidd, but I have seen the Pistons get hurt with PG penetration a lot this year. Rondo has been blowing by people since he got into the league, I worry that Billups won't be able to do much to check him on the perimeter. And you can't defend a team with 3 superstars if the non-superstar PG is breaking down the defense at will.

Plus Rondo's turned into a fantastic on-ball defender, not just an opportunistic steals guy. I know Mike Bibby isn't the best player in the league or anything, but Rondo was inside his jock that entire series, Rondo completely shut him down. Bibby averaged 10 & 3 with .339 shooting in the series. Rondo averaged 12-4-7 with 1 turnover per game.

Imagine if Phoenix had kept this guy, they'd be all set for the post-Nash era (I mean, they'd obviously be down, but not on the brink of obscurity like they are now). They're so desperate for a backup point that they signed Marcus Banks and then fucking GORDON GIRICEK, a guy Philadelphia thought so highly of that they cut him and ate his salary. But Phoenix essentially sold the rights to Rondo for cash, much as they did with Luol Deng and Nate Robinson, another couple of players they could really use. Oh well. As a Lakers fan I can't really say I'm sorry that the division and conference are soon to have another has-been.

BTW, I really hate when reporters say stuff like "Phoenix sold Rajon Rondo" vs. "Phoenix sold the rights to Rondo". I don't think you have to be super politically correct to be uncomfortable with the idea of selling black people.

DING DING, ROUND TWO

We're still waiting on game 7 of Atlanta-Boston to get the conference semifinal field set, but seeing as how the other three series start today and tomorrow, I want to get my predictions down.

DETROIT-ORLANDO

I know the Pistons didn't look great in a surprisingly tough series with Philadelphia, but I'm still predicting a solid win against Orlando--I just don't think the Magic are the kind of team that gives Detroit trouble.

Dwight Howard will undoubtedly wreak some havoc; Rasheed is a great post defender, but Howard has a huge size and athleticism advantage over him. And the way the Magic work, spreading the floor with a bunch of deadly shooters, it makes it really hard to give your main post defender help. But the Pistons did a good job of keeping him contained in the regular season, Howard's 17 & 11 averages against them well below his usual 21 & 14. As long as Rasheed stays out of foul trouble, I see Howard being a handful, but not putting up 2001-Shaq-style 30 & 20s.

Where I think the Pistons win this is with their perimeter defense. What they struggle with a little bit now is penetration, they're still excellent at sticking on shooters, and that's what Orlando's supporting cast is--a bunch of shooters. Turkoglu could cause some problems, he's turned into an outstanding all-around player; but that's where Detroit's defensive ace, Tayshaun Prince, comes into play. I'm not worried about Turkoglu really lighting up Tayshaun. Another key matchup will be Detroit's secondary big man defender--McDyess and Maxiell mostly--on Rashard Lewis. That might sound a little ugly at first, but Lewis is not great at putting the ball on the floor and going to the basket.

I see the series coming down to the Chauncey Billups-Jameer Nelson matchup. Two weeks ago I'd have said that was a slam dunk for the Pistons. But in the first round, Nelson had a fantastic series (17 & 5, shooting 52% from the floor and 50% from 3), and Billups really stunk (15.5 & 7, 40% and 33%). The good news is that Billups turned it around in the last two games, with 21 and 20 points on good shooting, and his usual good defense on Andre Miller after he'd been burned earlier in the series. If Billups clamps down on Nelson and stays consistent with his shot, I think the Pistons win it. If not, if he gets outplayed like he did early in the Philly series, I think the Pistons are in trouble. If Nelson is penetrating, that breaks down the Pistons' team defense and opens up all kinds of possibilities for Howard and the shooters.

LAKERS-UTAH

I think the Lakers are going to win this series, but I don't think it'll be easy. LA usually beats good offense/bad defense teams, but Utah has a couple of matchups that are killers for the Lakers--Derek Fisher on Deron Williams, and Lamar Odom on Carlos Boozer. I fully expect those two to score at will. But it works both ways, the Jazz's interior defense is awful, I don't think they can stop Pau Gasol or Odom at all.

The key here is Andrei Kirilenko on Kobe; Kirilenko is as good a defender as you can ever put on Kobe, but I still don't think he can keep Kobe from controlling this series. I expect both teams to score a lot of points, but the Lakers to score just slightly easier. Kobe will do what he does, but if it comes down to Gasol & Odom getting layups/dunks and Boozer & Williams getting jumpers--much the same narrative as the Lakers-Nuggets series--the Lakers win.

SPURS-HORNETS

Oh my god, this series is going to be awesome. It's old vs. new, experience vs. energy, talent vs. talent. The conventional wisdom is that the Spurs take this somewhat easily, with the Hornets maybe not quite ready for primetime. I don't see that, I think this is a total coin flip. I see some major issues for the Spurs in this series, starting with the obvious--Chris Paul is a matchup nightmare for them. The Spurs put Bruce Bowen on Steve Nash, but I don't think he can handle the insanely quick Paul. The Spurs beat the Suns largely because Tony Parker so thoroughly outplayed Steve Nash; but in this series, PG is all of a sudden a matchup that the Spurs probably lose--to what degree is a question that will play the defining role in the outcome of this series.

There's a wide range of opinion on Chris Paul's defensive ability, whether he's a lock down type defender or an overrated steals guy--this series will go a long way for me. If you want to test your perimeter defense skills, Tony Parker is the guy to do it against. FWIW, I'm slightly in the "overrated steals guy" camp, and I expect Parker to score at will--but I think Paul will be even better on the offensive end and will control this series.

The Spurs have a good matchup against the underrated David West with their ability to put Tim Duncan on him--but that leaves Tyson Chandler to wreak havoc on the glass, on the fearsome Hornets' alley-oop, and defensively in terms of controlling the lane (if they don't end up having to put him on Duncan, which they might have to). West can take you out to 15-20 feet with his excellent jumper, that means Duncan might be spending some time away from the rim; if that's the case, I can see Chandler causing some serious problems for the Spurs. Oberto and Thomas are good players, but they can't hang with Chandler's size, athleticism and incredible energy level. Not to mention that if you can take Duncan away from the basket, it opens things up for Paul's penetration. I don't think Bruce Bowen can contain Paul, and I know Tony Parker can't--the question is whether the "San Antonio Spurs team" can.

Here's a key question for me: how does New Orleans handle Ginobili? The usual Hornets' starter at SG is Morris Peterson, I think that's a huge mismatch in the Spurs favor. But the Hornets do have tough guy Bonzi Wells on the bench, I wouldn't mind seeing him mix it up with Ginobili at crunch time--that would be fun to watch. I wonder if Ginobili takes super-sub Jannero Pargo, who was oustanding in the Dallas series, out of the game somewhat. The Hornets like to go with that small backcourt of Paul and Pargo at the same time, but Ginobili would wreck Pargo. I guess maybe you could stick Pargo on Bowen and have a SF like Peterson, Wells or Julian Wright on Ginobili--that's the problem in going with a defensive specialist like Bowen, it allows the other team to hide a crappy defender by having him hang out with Bowen in the corner.

This is going to be good, man, this is going to be fun. I guess I'll take the Spurs to win it, but I think it's going to be a hell of a lot harder than everyone thinks.