SHAQ...AGAIN

I know I'm getting a little obsessed with this, but I personally think Shaq going to the Suns is one of the most compelling story lines in NBA history. How do you fit the ultimate round peg into the ultimate square hole?

The verdict in the early going? Not well.

(BTW, I do realize I keep going back and forth on this. Hey, new information keeps rolling in--I'll probably do a couple more flip-flops before it's all said and done.)

The Suns followed up a strong offensive performance against the Lakers, not exactly a clamp-down defensive team, with back-to-back clunkers against Eastern elites Boston (who was even clunkier) and Detroit (who wasn't). They've scored 86 and 85 in their last two games; in their previous 54 games, they scored under 87 only twice.

I know it's way early and the Suns have all the time in the world to figure this thing out, but they do have some major issues to address. They can still run, even when Shaq's in the game, but where they're getting bogged down is in the half court--which is where playoff games are won and lost. The way I see it, they have two big issues:

1. Shaq clogs things up in the middle, which is exactly what I predicted. They have terrible spacing and just aren't getting good open looks. Amare Stoudemire has gone wild since the trade, but I think most of that is due to his own individual brilliance--he's beating his man off the dribble, he's hitting 17-foot jumpers like the second coming of The Mailman, he's getting to the foul line like crazy, and is shooting a ridiculous 90% when he gets there.

But nobody else had anything going in those two games. I think it's pretty striking that Steve Nash's 5 and 6 assists in those games mark his second and third lowest assist totals of the year--and he only had 8 assists in the Laker game in which Phoenix scored 124 points. There's a lot of one-on-one play going on with Phoenix, which is a complete turnaround from the pre-Shaq days. In 3 games with Shaq, Nash has 19 assists and 10 turnovers. Those are Sebastian Telfair numbers.

The bottom line is this: there's no place for Nash to go. Amare and Shaq demand a lot of attention in the lane and between Hill and Diaw, you have two guys that you can leave off to help out inside (more on this later). The lane is getting a lot of traffic, and it's hurting Nash's killer penetration game.

2. Jeff Van Gundy, the best analyst in all of sports, made a good point during the Pistons game: nobody fears the Suns' 3-point shooting any more. They still have Nash, of course, but you're never, never, ever leaving off him to double Shaq or Amare anyway. Their problem is more Hill and Diaw. They're both really good players, they do a lot of valuable things, but nobody is afraid of their jumper. Both of them do most of their damage in the mid-range game and closer to the basket, and that's exactly where your defense has sagged in to account for Shaq & Amare.

In short, their spacing in the two games was just awful, and they couldn't make Boston and Detroit pay for focusing their defense in the paint.

I think they'll probably end up figuring something out. There's a lot of talent there, and if anyone can work up an offense that takes advantage of everyone's skills, it's Mike D'Antoni. But I don't know if that end product is going to be nearly as good as Suns' offenses in years past--so Shaq better make a big difference on D, which is far from a slam dunk.

I think the key to this team might end up being Leandro Barbosa. Raja Bell can shoot, but he's not going to just bury you--if your defense makes him the key man in the Suns' offense, I think you're way ahead of the game. But Barbosa is a different story, Barbosa is a cold-blooder scorer who can drop 30 on you before you blink. He's a 41% career 3-point shooter so he forces you to respect his perimeter game, and he can blow past anyone in the league. He's basically unguardable. Unlike Bell, Diaw, and to a lesser extent, Hill, he's someone that you have to account for defensively every minute of the game, you can't play off Barbosa to sag down on Shaq/Amare without paying a major price. I think he could potentially open things up for the Suns and they can get back to some semblance of what they do best--Nash penetrating and kicking out, and the Nash/Amare pick-and-roll.

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Now on to the Cavs-Bulls trade. I don't really care about it from a Bulls standpoint, they're pretty much where they were before the trade--a crappy team waiting to see how Thomas-Noah-Sefalosha turn out. I do think this means one of Gordon, Deng & Hughes are going to be traded in the offseason.

As for the Cavs, I think they solidly improved themselves, but not enough to keep pace with Boston, Detroit and the western powers. They're definitely deeper now (with Joe Smith and Delonte West), they're definitely better defensively (Ben Wallace), and they swapped in a shooter (Wally Szczerbiak) for the horribly-out-of-place Larry Hughes, but at the end of the day, it's trading 2 so-so players for 4 so-so players. A net gain of 2 so-so players isn't quite the same as adding Gasol, Kidd, or Shaq.

I will say those 4 players are a better fit for Cleveland than the guys they got rid of, Hughes and Drew Gooden (whose production will be easily replaced by Varejao getting more minutes and the addition of Wallace/Smith). There's some hope, but it probably won't be the miracle Cleveland needs to compete with the league's big dogs. I mean, I can certainly see why they made the deal, they were going nowhere with the current roster and everyone in the state of Ohio is scared shitless (understandably) about Lebron bolting in the summer of 2010. But you better damn well think it's going to work, because LBJ isn't going to be fooled into thinking the Cavs are right there if they get handled easily by Detroit or Boston or even get slaughtered once again in the Finals.

They do have a bit of roster flexibility in that year James becomes a free agent, so maybe they're thinking they can make their run with this roster and if it's not working--which it probably won't--you can either trade Wallace's expiring deal for a disgruntled star during that 2009-2010 season, or you can have a ton of cap space the summer of 2010 when LBJ opts out of his deal. He might be really pissed off at Cleveland management, but what if returning means he gets to play with Dwyane Wade? I think he'll come around.

SHAQ'S DEBUT

Observations from last night's epic Lakers-Suns, a 130-124 Laker victory:

1. Shaq is still pretty damn good. The Lakers are still scared of him, they started the game double teaming every time he touched the ball--and as soon as they stopped doing it, he scored pretty much at will. He was also a force on the defensive end, the Lakers had trouble converting inside when he was in there. Fortunately they shot the ball well from the outside, and scored easily during the long stretches Shaq was on the sideline huffing and puffing.

Another big advantage to having Shaq is what it does for Amare Stoudemire. Instead of playing against much bigger 5s, he's now free to wreak havoc on physically overmatched 4s, as evidenced by the way he tore apart Lamar Odom last night for 37 & 15. I think this is pretty much what the trade was all about. Instead of having to bang with the Andrew Bynums and Erick Dampiers and Tyson Chandlers, Amare is now matched up against the Lamar Odoms/Pau Gasols and Dirk Nowitzkis and David Wests. That's an ugly matchup for everyone but San Antonio (although Amare has had good success against even Tim Duncan).

I guess I'm starting to come around on the trade--sorta. I still think you're trading your future for a one-time shot (not just getting rid of Marion, but also committing yourself to being capped out for the next 2 years after this one with little roster flexibility), and I still think you're gambling very heavily on Shaq's health. But I do think Phoenix could end up being better this year for having made the deal. Shaq causes a lot more problems than Shawn Marion does--you have to double team Shaq, you don't have to double Marion. That's huge. That opens things up for everyone. And as long as Shaq plays with the energy and effort on the defensive end that he showed last night, he's still a real intimidator out there. Marion's a very good defender, but the combination of Shaq being a lane-clogging shotblocker and Amare getting to go back to his natural position could make the Suns better off defensively too.

2. However, (a) the Lakers won at Phoenix, (b) they scored 130 and shot .565 from the floor, (c) they did it without their starting center, one of the few guys in the league who can match up size-wise with Shaq, and (d) the only reason it was even close was Phoenix's 46-33 rebounding edge with 16 offensive boards--fortunately the Lakers have one of the 3 best rebounders in the game healing quickly and chomping at the bit to get back out there.

But then a lot of the Lakers' offensive brilliance had to do with Kobe playing some of his best basketball of the season. Sometimes you're going to play LA and you're just going to get Kobe'ed--and you're probably not going to win those games. Kobe went for 41 on 16-25 shooting against generally excellent defense by Raja Bell, Grant Hill and DJ Strawberry (BTW, I'd get that kid on the floor more if I were Phoenix, he looks like a player to me.) Sometimes you just have to tip your cap and take your L. I wouldn't freak out about this if I were Phoenix, it's just one game, the first game of the Shaq era, there's plenty of time before the playoffs start to tighten things up and figure out how to get the most value out of Shaq.

As for the Lakers, well, I think it's time to start freaking out a little. In the good way. The entire season still hinges on Kobe's pinkie...but if it can just hold up, I think the Lakers have as good a shot as anyone in the league. They're still not a good rebounding or defensive team, but those will be the easiest places for Bynum to work his way back in. And the Lakers are just so goddamn good on offense right now--Kobe setting the table, Gasol getting scraps down low and sticking those midrange "jumpers" (I'm not sure his feet actually leave the floor), Odom slashing to the bucket, Fisher/Farmar/Vujacic/Radmanovic knocking down open jumpers and making teams pay for doubling Kobe & Gasol....it's all working right now. There's a long, long, long ways to go, the Western Conference playoffs will be trench warfare, but I'm feeling pretty good about the team's chances here on February 21.

Let's hope that isn't a classic jinx move, I can just see opening the paper tomorrow and reading that Kobe needs to have his pinkie amputated or he'll die. Look, basketball gods, I didn't say we'd steamroll everyone on the way to an easy NBA championship, I said I'm "feeling pretty good about the team's chances", so just chillax up there and leave Kobe alone.

FRESHMAN/SOPHOMORE

So I watched the godawful freshman/sophomore all-star game Friday night, it didn't tell me anything I didn't already know, but it did remind me of a bunch of thoughts I've been having on these two classes of players.

1. I think Brandon Roy is hands-down the best player in this group, he's already right on the edge of superstardom. He's just so calm, cool and collected out there, super smooth, highly skilled, has a great understanding of the game, and is the unquestioned leader on a team with one of the brightest futures in the NBA. Since December 1, he's averaging about 21-5-6 with a sparkling 1.8 turnovers per. The only thing he can't really do yet is shoot the three, but he has a real nice stroke, I think that'll come.

Not only do I think Roy is the best player right now, in a walk, I also think he's the guy you'd take if you were building a franchise. Kevin Durant and Rudy Gay, among others, are loaded with potential, but Roy can and will get better too.

2. Next up are a group of players I like immensely: Durant, Gay and Al Horford.

I'm still super high on Kevin Durant despite his less-than-spectacular rookie season. He's playing too hesitantly, shooting way too many fallaway jumpers, that's something he'll learn to get away from in time. Watching him in the rookie-sophomore game reminded me of how much Durant can do on the court, things I just haven't seen out of him so far in Seattle. He can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, he can rebound, he has outstanding court vision, and he's an excellent finisher on the break. I think he's one of those guys who--like Rudy Gay--will see a massive leap forward in his second season. He just needs to get a little more comfortable out there, stop thinking so much and just let it fly.

Man, I bet Houston regrets that Rudy Gay-Shane Battier deal (as predicted here, even though I was admittedly lukewarm on Gay). Battier's a nice solid player, but Gay is already an excellent second year player and has a massive ceiling. Gay has Lebron-like athleticism, a top 5 athlete in the entire league, and now he's developed a sweet jumper to go along with it. He's averaging 20-6-2 on the year and is shooting an excellent .469 from the floor and .390 from three (on almost 5 attempts per game). He's also chipping in defensively with 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks. And he's 21 years old--the sky is the limit with this dude.

Al Horford is my final guy in this second tier, I'm really starting to love his game. He's a throwback PF, a Larry Nance/Horace Grant type who'll get you 15 points, 11 boards and play tough defense--that's a valuable player to have. He has some soft, soft hands, very nice athleticism, and a good handle on the game. He's doing great in the hustle stats, averaging 10 boards with a block and steal per game. His offense has been a little slow coming, he's averaging 9 on just .472 shooting, but I think it'll come for him. He has some nice post moves and a soft touch around the rim. I'm not sure he'll ever be big time, the way Durant and Gay probably will, but I think he's a safe bet as a 10-year solid starter/minor star.

3. The rest of the sophomore class

You know I've been high on Jordan Farmar for a while now, and tonight's game really illustrated some things I love about him. He was a dynamo out there, that high energy all-star game point guard that runs the floor, sees the court and makes things happen. He had a ton of great passes and a ton of steals, he just has an understanding of the game that's far superior to his classmates. I think he's easily the best PG in either class, with Mike Conley a distant second (but give it time). Throw in outstanding athleticim, tough defense and lights out shooting and I think you're looking at a very solid 15 & 8 PG in the future, with possibly an even higher ceiling than that.

I'm cooling a bit on LaMarcus Aldridge. He can score, for sure, but he doesn't do much else and he's pretty goddamn soft for a big man (just 7.4 boards per game in 34 minutes for a 6'11 PF?). That'll obviously be mitigated by the arrival of Greg Oden next year, but I do think it limits his upside to something short of stardom.

Remember this name, folks: Thabo Sefalosha. I was sounding the horn on him last year, but Scott Skiles kept him buried on the bench. Now that he's worked his way into the starting lineup, he's averaging about 12-6-3 with 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks in 17 starts. Thabo is a silky smooth 6'5 athlete who can really handle the ball, defends like a future all-defensive team player (his length and quickness really bothered Dwyane Wade Thursday night), and has a sweet little midrange game. This is his first real game experience, so I feel like he's just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's 23 now, I think he's going to be huge for the Bulls--in fact, with his emergence, I wouldn't be at all shocked if they moved Ben Gordon or Luol Deng this summer for some post scoring.

4. The rest of the rookie class

I think New Jersey may have gotten the steal of the draft with their 6'10 jumping jack Sean Williams. He's only averaging about 8 & 6, but he just oozes potential. He's only 21 and didn't play organized basketball until he was 15. Yet his game is more than just raw athleticism, he actually has some decent skills to go along with his crazy hops and quickness. This guy's a keeper.

A player who's really starting to come on lately is Thaddeus Young, a 6'8 small forward in Philly. He recently earned his way into the starting lineup and has responded with 11 & 6 and is shooting .571. Young is extremely athletic and is a great finisher around the rim (unlike most rookie small forwards). He's only 19, having played just one year at Georgia Tech, so this is someone to really keep an eye on, he could be a big timer.

Rodney Stuckey from Detroit is looking like another draft steal in this potentially monstrous class. He looked good from the start after coming back from injury, but he did struggle a bit with his outside shot. But in the last 6 games, he's averaging an excellent 11-2-4 in just 21 minutes per game and is shooting a very respectable .491. He's an outstanding penetrator and solid passer, and he just doesn't turn the ball over a lot (2.5 assists to 1.0 turnovers per game so far this season). I like this guy more and more every time I see him.

Yi Jianlian could end up being one of the real prizes of this class. At just 20, he's averaging a respectable 10 & 6. He's more athletic than anyone envisioned, and he has a smooooth jumper for a big man. I'm not sure you want to play him at PF without a true center, but he's a nice prospect as a combo forward.

Then finally, we have Al Thornton, the combo forward for the Clippers. He's coming on in a big way right now, averaging 17 & 6 in 8 February games, but the only thing I'd caution is that Thornton is 24 year olds and played 4 years of college ball, he should be better than his draft class right now. He's definitely athletic as hell and he has some skills, but he's very sporadic shooting the ball, a real all-or-nothing guy. Sometimes those kind of players develop more consistency and pan out, sometimes they're Tim Thomas. We'll see what happens--but like with Thomas, I think a player with Thornton's size and athleticism should be playing around the rim more rather than shooting a million jumpers. At least it's more midrange stuff with Thornton as opposed to launching a ton of threes.

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So what about Kobe? Man. Just...man. What a rollercoaster ride this season has been for the Lakers. They start out kicking ass, then Bynum goes down. Then they look like they're going to immediately play their way out of a playoff spot, and then the Gasol trade happens. They start kicking major ass again, and boom, Kobe might be (probably?) looking at surgery on his torn pinkie ligament and six weeks of rehab. Arrgh.

I'm just getting the feeling more and more that this isn't the Lakers year to win a championship. I was lukewarm on their chances to start with (on the assumption that the very young Andrew Bynum wouldn't be back to 100% (physically or especially mentally) before the playoffs rolled around--now with Kobe potentially missing much of the stretch run, it's conceivable the Lakers could go into a tailspin and miss the playoffs altogether in the brutal, brutal West (they're 3rd in the conference right now, a game and a half back of first place Phoenix, coming off a 7-2 road trip...and they're still only 3 friggin' games ahead of #9 Houston. Meanwhile they're 12 games ahead of the East's #8, Philadelphia).

Maybe he can play through it, that remains to be seen; but if not, I'm at peace with the idea of him just getting the surgery, the Lakers doing what they can with Kobe & Andrew when they return from injury, and looking ahead to the next 3-4 years of championship contention. It would kill me to throw away that all-too-rare season when your team looks like it might be the best one around, but at least the future's extremely bright, unlike in Phoenix and Dallas (if the Kidd trade goes through).

THE TRADES

Just when you think the era of the big NBA trade is all but dead, we have two absolute blockbusters in the last week: Pau Gasol goes to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, and a used jockstrap to clinch it, and Shaq--Shaq!!!--looks like he's on the way to Phoenix--Phoenix!!!--for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.

Now you know I get pretty geeked about the NBA even in the dullest of times--well, right now, I'm shaking like Amy Winehouse after she's gone 45 minutes without some kind of intoxicant. Let's discuss:

PAU GASOL

Ohmygod, ohmygod, ohmygod. This just couldn't have worked out better. We get a 27-year-old skilled 7-footer--and we get to get rid of KWAME BROWN?! Uh, did Memphis throw in one free blowjob from Salma Hayek for all Laker fans on top of it? My dogs are even more ecstatic than I am, never again will they have to cower in fear after I scream "box the FUCK out, Kwame!!!" I wanted to wait until Pau's (my first reference to him by his first name...sigh) debut before I posted, just to get a sense of what he's going to mean to this team, and the answer is...a lot. In what would otherwise have been a classic trap game, a would-be road loss to a so-so team when Kobe's not feeling it (3-13 from the floor, 7 turnovers), Gasol came up with 24-12-4--pretty much the difference between winning and losing.

He was great on the boards--he's pretty soft, but he does play like a 7-footer, he plays above people's heads. And he has some soft hands, which is night and day from Kwame. He caught several passes and took down several offensive boards that Kwame wouldn't have gotten in a million years. He knows how to finish around the basket (again, totally unlike Kwame, who's downright comedically spastic at that), and his passing was superb. His 4 assists could have been 6 or 7 if people had knocked down open shots.

I still think he's going to be slightly less involved when Andrew Bynum is fully healthy. Gasol has a nice touch around the rim, Andrew has a nice power dunk around the rim. There's a difference. And Bynum is a *miles better* defensive player than Gasol, who's quite frankly awful on that end. I think the Lakers are going to continue to give up a lot of points until Bynum and Ariza (in place of the also defensively-deficient Luke Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic) are healthy. I mean, Andrew's the franchise, post-Kobe. He's the intimidator, he's the force, he's the guy *nobody in the league* can match up with. He's the guy who just scared Phoenix into making an imbecilic trade (more on that below).

But I still think Gasol will play a huge role. Andrew will hold the fort in the low post, Gasol will play the high post or split out on the baseline, two areas where triangle offense PFs like Horace Grant thrived. And I think we're going to see a lot of the offense run through him at the high post--his passing is excellent, he can stick that foul-line jumper, and he has a nice little take to the basket for a big man. Plus he'll probably get some pick-and-rolls run for him, judging from tonight. That staple of good basketball has been almost non-existent in LA for 10 years, but the Lakers pulled it out for two key possessions in the fourth quarter tonight and Gasol converted on both with ease.

If I had to pick some numbers for Gasol, I'd say pre-Bynum 20-10-4, post-Bynum (being *fully* healthy), more like 15-7-4.

The guy I really think might be marginalized upon Andrew's return is Lamar Odom. Gasol and Bynum together make Lamar's rebounding almost superfluous, and I think he'll be even more content to stay in the background offensively than he already is. Plus I just don't think he can defend opposing 3s, he's struggled with that in the past. This team isn't going to need much on offense with Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and lots of good shooters, but a big weakness on D (in addition to Gasol) could really hurt them. I could see Odom's numbers dwindling to something like 10-7-3. Which is fine with me, but I can understand if Jerry Buss and Mitch Kupchak don't want to pay $15M a year for that kind of production--so what I'm saying is, don't be shocked if you see Lamar traded for seemingly pennies on the dollar this summer.

So do I think the Lakers can win a championship? Yes, but I'm thinking probably not this year. I don't think they're good enough defensively without Bynum at 100%, and I don't think he's going to be the same player he was when he gets back. It doesn't take long for an Elton Brand to return to superstardom after an injury, but Bynum's different, this was a kid who was experiencing for the first time what it was like to be a great NBA player. A lot of his success depends on energy and confidence, and I think that'll be the hard thing for him to get back after the injury. Plus there will be some awkwardness and confusion over integrating Bynum with Gasol, and I'm worried Bynum won't be in the mindset to take over as the man in the middle over a much more experienced Gasol.

But Kobe's 29, Gasol's 27, Odom's 28, Farmar's 21, Andrew's 20--I can wait. This team is here to stay as a contender for at least the next 3-4 years. I'd love to see them make a run this year, but if it doesn't happen, well, the future's still pretty goddamned bright.

SHAQUILLE

What the hell is Steve Kerr thinking? I just don't get this on any level. You give up a younger, cheaper player who's a better fit for your team for someone who's old, injury prone, and wildly overpaid...why?!? I personally think Shawn Marion is a bit overrated, definitely overpaid, and one of the league's true assholes, but man, at least he can still play. Shaq will probably get motivated in a hurry going to a championship contender, but look, he's still old, fat, slow and extremely dinged up. I just don't get this at all.

Actually, I do have a reason, even though I think it's an idiotic one: Andrew Bynum. I'm always saying that one regular season game doesn't mean anything, but that Christmas Day game--as predicted--had a huge impact on the Phoenix Suns' psyche. That was the game Andrew Bynum physically dominated the manhood out of Amare Stoudemire, forcing the Suns to go to Brian Skinner for large stretches of the game. I think that really scared them, and this Shaq trade is the resulting panic move.

I do think Shaq, unlike Amare, can hold his own defensively with Andrew Bynum--for now, that is. Check back in another 45 seconds or so when Andrew has left Shaq in the dust once and for all. But that comes at the cost of losing a guy who was tailor-made for Mike D'Antoni's system--*and* at an additional $20M in salary in 2009-2010. And that's assuming Shaq is healthy, which he almost never is. This is a soon-to-be 36 year old man who has never taken care of himself and never will. (I mean--would you? You're an all-time great with 4 rings, how the hell are you going to motivate yourself to get up at 8:00 AM in the offseason--when you're already hurting--to get your ass into the gym?)

I know there's some major spat between Amare and Marion and maybe this means they just can't coexist, but geez, this is the best you can do? Bottom line, I don't want Shaq on my team at any cost. To think you could have had Kobe a year ago--I love Amare Stoudemire too, but would you rather have Nash-Kobe-Marion or Nash-Amare-Shaq? That's an absolute no-brainer. Like Chicago, they just blew it. When you have a chance to get a Kobe, especially if your mission is to win now, as it is with the Suns, you do it.

But I just don't see how Shaq's going to work on this team. I can't stress enough what a bad fit he is for the Suns' system. Shaq still has some value as a player--while healthy--but look, you can't run with Shaq. You just can't. And if you try to, all you're doing is playing 4-on-5 while simultaneously not taking advantage of the skills of your highest paid player. Shaq can still score in the halfcourt. What he can't do is run the break and finish.

And whither the famous Suns' pick-and-roll? That's their entire halfcourt offense! You can't pick and roll with Shaq, he can't shoot the foul-line jumper *and* he can't take the ball to the basket. And what happens when Shaq & Amare are in the game and you want to run that pick-and-roll with Amare, does Shaq clog up the lane and make that play easily defendable, or does he just stand around 20 feet from the basket with this thumb up his ass? That's a great way to spend $20,000,000.

Shaq does give them a good halfcourt scoring option, he gives them a better defensive rebounder (forget the numbers, if the ball is bouncing off the rim in crunch time, I want Shaq under it over Marion) and a much better interior defender than they currently have--and seeing as how this is Shaq we're talking about, that's one sad reflection on the state of Amare's suck-ass defense. But then maybe Amare's suck-ass defense won't be quite so awful when he's defending 4s instead of 5s and he's not responsible for being the big lane-clogging shotblocker on the team.

But what they lose is...well...everything that makes them the Suns. I have no doubt Boris Diaw can fill Marion's shoes and do a decent job, so the loss of Marion isn't what I'm talking about. It's the addition of Shaq and how you necessarily have to play when he's in the game. I don't know what the new Suns are going to look like, but it's going to be a hell of a lot different than what it's been the last few years.

Maybe D'Antoni and Kerr just looked at what they had and decided they flat-out couldn't win playing small in the west. That's their prerogative, of course, but I think they're really jumping the gun. I still think Phoenix was one David Stern robbery (the Amare suspension) against the Spurs from it being anyone's series, and I think they're right there again this year. I would have liked to have seen them give it one more chance before calling it quits.

I know they're afraid of the size of the other Big 4 western teams--yup, that's right bitch, LA has now made it a Big 4--but I feel like they've just committed themselves to playing a lot more like San Antonio, Dallas and Los Angeles with a roster that's not as good at it.

I think a good gauge for how a trade is going to shake out is to look at league reaction. The Gasol trade sent shockwaves through the league, team execs were literally angry that LA got him for so little. If opposing teams are unhappy, that's a good reason to think you did the right thing. Well, nobody in the West is unhappy about the Shaq trade. On the contrary, I feel like Phoenix just hurt their short term chances and utterly destroyed their post-Nash (he's 35) long term chances of competing.