PORTLAND RE-BIRTH

So Portland looks like they're back in a big way, and I for one am happy about it. I mean, I'm not happy the Lakers have yet another Western Conference beast looming, but if any city (other than New York) deserves a good team, it's Portland. They've endured terrible teams, they've endured fugly teams, teams full of thugs and rapists, and they've stayed through it all. They're not the most knowledgeable crowd in the league (that's New York again), and they have the worst signage (seriously, check out their games, people will be holding up signs like "The Blazers are good!"), but they're probably the most loyal group of fans out there.

And now they have something to cheer about. With prince-in-waiting Greg Oden sidelined for the year, the youngest team in the league has started to emerge one season ahead of schedule behind a strong core of young players including LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, and the rapidly-arriving Brandon Roy. Since losing at San Antonio on December 2nd, the rest of the month has seen the Blazers win 10 in a row, including home & away over Utah, home and away over Denver, and home vs. Golden State, New Orleans and Toronto--in fact, those games constitute Portland's last 7; they're on a major roll right now. It's even more impressive when you consider that up-and-coming big man LaMarcus Aldridge missed 5 of those games with injury.

The key is Brandon Roy, he's come on strong over the last month and has announced his presence as the NBA's next superstar. In 11 December games, he's averaging 22/5/7 and shooting .479 from the floor. More than that, he's become the team's clear leader and is turning into one of the league's great finishers in the fourth quarter.

His fellow 2006 draft classmate LaMarcus Aldridge is having a great second season as well, averaging 18.5 & 8, shooting .528 from the floor, and giving the team one of the most promising young post scorers in the league. He's got moves, he's got a sweet jumper, and his one weakness--he's on the soft-ish side--will be mitigated by having superbeast Greg Oden as his running mate. If Chicago had stuck with Aldridge instead of trading his draft rights for those of Tyrus Thomas, they'd be a 50+ win team right now instead of floundering near the league's basement--his post scoring is exactly what they need. In fact, if you re-ran that 2006 draft, Roy would be the hands-down #1 pick and Aldridge would probaby go #2 just over Rudy Gay. In short, Portland absolutely cleaned up in that draft.

And now we have good news about Greg Oden, from the Blazers' GM Kevin Pritchard: "He's so far ahead of what we expected, it's not even funny." He then stressed that Oden will not be coming back this year (which is smart, no need to rush anything when the future is so unbelievably bright for this franchise), but it's sounding more and more like Oden will be ready to go when the 2008-2009 season begins. And when he shows up, an already good team suddenly will have one of the best rebounders and shot-blockers in the league (which I believe Oden will be right off the bat), and a Dwight Howard-like dunking machine around the basket. Oden's offensive game is raw, but his athleticism is off the charts and I think he'll be able to more or less dunk his way to double figures next year.

So next year they line up with Roy-Webster-Aldridge-Oden, with whoever wins the PG battle between Steve Blake, Jarrett Jack & Sergio Rodriguez. What's so great about Roy is that you don't need to pair him with a classic PG, because he's going to have the ball in his hands all the time and will be directing the offense. Think Dwyane Wade or Kobe. All you need is another good ballhandler, a good shooter who can knock down open 3s, and someone who can defend other PGs.

Aldridge and Oden are the perfect complements to each other, Aldridge being a great high post scorer, Oden controlling the boards and the paint defensively. Webster gives them a money shooter, a tough cover on a team with several guys who can command double teams. The team also has the highly promising Travis Outlaw, a 23-year-old super athlete combo forward who's averaging 16/6/2 for December, and Channing Frye and Joel Przybilla to give them some quality big man depth.

And the best part of all of it, IMO, is that the team has a ton of cap space available. They might not need it, other than to shore up a weakness here and there, but they're also one of the few teams in the league who could handle a major deal--or just a straight free agent signing. Imagine adding Kobe after next year, or Dwyane Wade the year after that. Portland could probably do it if they played their cards right. That's the beauty of having players the caliber of Roy, Aldridge and Oden on their low-paying rookie contracts.

But honestly, they're so promising right now, I'll bet they're thinking they can win with what they have--and I think they might be right. Obviously we'll know a lot more once Oden starts playing, but this is already a quality team and it's only getting better from here.

"The Blazers are good!"...indeed.

QUICK HITTERS

The Pistons have reeled off 5 wins in a row--includin an epic win at Boston--to get to 20-7, the second best record in the league to Boston's 22-3. And now they have rookie Rodney Stuckey back from injury, Jason Maxiell looking like a beast in the making, Primo Brezec giving them some good size off the bench--I really like what I'm seeing here. Joe Dumars is in the process of doing the impossible: sowing the seeds of a rebuilding movement while still competing at the highest levels. The team is still as good as anyone in the league, and IMO a very tough matchup for Boston in a 7 game series, but now they've added several promising young players as cornerstones of a future youth movement in Stuckey, Maxiell, Arron Afflalo, Amir Johnson, and Cheick Samb. They just don't come any better than Joe D.

The Lakers have gone 8-2 in their last 10 to get up to 17-10. Andrew Bynum is coming on in leaps and bounds, averaging just under 14 & 10 in December with over 3 blocks per game and a .652 FG%. He's really a force on both ends at this point, with consistency the only issue. Lamar Odom is finally looking healthy, the Lakers' bench has been fantastic, and Kobe is playing (mostly) smart and under control, but I'm not ordering Western Conference Finals tickets just yet--the schedule has been favorable so far and the team has a brutal stretch coming up in January. We'll see what happens when the second youngest team in the league plays a bunch of tough road games.

Dallas is looking like they have their shit together, they're up to 19-9 and back to their rightful place as a top 3 team in the conference.

Orlando's a funny team. They're struggling right now, 3-7 in their last 10 to drop to 18-11. But what's weird is they're an excellent 13-5 on the road, and a dreadful 5-6 at home. Any team that relies on outside shooting so much is going to be streaky and inconsistent, but I still think they're a scary draw in the playoffs for either Detroit or Boston.

AT THE QUARTER POLE

With about 1/4th of the season over, here's where I see things:

BEST TEAM

1. San Antonio Spurs 17-4
2. Boston Celtics 18-2
3. Phoenix Suns 17-6

Boston has the best record. They're outscoring teams by almost 14 points per game. They're giving up 87 a game, a full 4.5 fewer points than the next best defensive team (Detroit). They're shooting .479 from the floor as a team, and .382 from three--both figures top 5 in the league. They're scoring 110 points per 100 possessions and giving up 95, both ridiculous numbers. So why do I only have them #2?

Because they've played 16 of their 20 games against the Eastern Conference, and none of their other 4 games were against any of the Western powers. Look, I'm not saying they're not for real--I do have them as the second best team in the league after all. But I still think the Spurs are a tick better, going 15-3 to open the season (against a better schedule) before Duncan sprained an ankle. Impressively, they're 2-1 since, with wins over Dallas & Utah before stumbling on the road to Golden State.

Manu Ginobili (averaging 21/5/4) and Tony Parker (20/3.5/7) are playing the best basketball of their lives, and Duncan's Duncan. I hate to say it, but I once again have to make these guys my solid favorite to win the NBA Championship.

Phoenix was looking great at 16-4 before a recent 1-2 stumble where they inexplicably lost games to horrible Minnesota and Miami squads. But a tough, gut-it-out win over Utah last night may have righted the ship. I still think they're right there with San Antonio, and I'd be extremely excited about a Suns-Spurs Western Conference Championship--we'll just have to hope David Stern doesn't once again make himself the MVP of the series and hand it over to San Antonio on a silver platter.


MVP

1. Dwight Howard (23 & 15, 2.8 blocks, .607 FG%)
2. Lebron James (30/7/8, 1.9 steals, 1.5 blocks)
3. Kobe Bryant (27/6/5, 2.0 steals)
4. Kevin Garnett (19/11/4, 1.7 steals, 1.7 blocks, .552 FG%)
5. Steve Nash (18/4/12, .525 FG%, .465 3PT%, .950 FT%)
6.. Chris Paul (22/4/10, 2.8 steals, .492 FG%, .912 FT%)
7. Tim Duncan (18/9/3, 1.8 blocks, .535 FG%)
8. Carlos Boozer (25/11.5/3, .577 FG%)
9. Carmelo Anthony (25/5.5/4)
10. Amare Stoudemire (21 & 9, 2.0 blocks, .569 FG%)

Others under consideration: Deron Williams, Tracy McGrady, Baron Davis, Josh Howard, Manu Ginobili, Allen Iverson.

Notes:

I have to give the nod to Dwight Howard at this stage, he's dominated the first part of the season even more than Lebron and Kobe have. He's like the young Shaq, just a matchup nightmare who needs to be double teamed on every catch on every possession. Now that his defensive game is rounding into shape, he's a total force of nature on both ends of the court.

The Lakers are definitely a better team than the Cavs, at least so far, but Lebron was doing something utterly historic before missing 5 games with a hand injury. I think he deserves to be ahead of Kobe at this stage.

I almost put Chris Paul ahead of Steve Nash, that's how good Paul has been in the season's first 20 or so games. Nash has fellow top 25 players Amare Stoudemire (more like top 10) and Shawn Marion, Chris Paul has David West, Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler--good but not great supporting talent--and yet the Hornets are within 2.5 games of Phoenix. That's impressive. Paul is a maestro out there--like Nash, always in complete control of the game. He's added some solid outside shooting to his repertoire, knocking down a respectable 38.6% of his 3 three-point attempts per game. He's the best ball-pressure PG in the league (his 2.8 steals per game easily leading the league), and his 3.23 assist-to-turnover ratio is even a hair ahead of Nash's 3.15. But it's Nash's obscene shooting percentages and his overall importance in making that Suns' system work that gives him a slight edge over Paul in the MVP race.

There are people who think Manu Ginobili has been more valuable to the Spurs than Tim Duncan has this year. Those people are incorrect. Duncan has always been, and will always be, undervalued because his numbers aren't that great for an MVP candidate, but he's the toughest cover the Spurs have on offense--the one guy who always draws the double team--and he's the most valuable defensive player in the entire league. Ginobili might be a better fantasy player, but Duncan gets the nod in real life.

Carlos Boozer vs. Deron Williams for Utah's best MVP candidate is a tough one. Boozer is a scoring machine, a killer rebounder, and the team's go-to guy. Williams is the unquestionable floor leader, a money shooter, a better defender, and is clutch in his own right. I went with Boozer, but I'm still not entirely convinced. Williams is averaging 21/3/9, and shooting an absurd .512 from the floor and .462 from three. If he's not as good as Carlos Boozer--or Chris Paul, in their lifelong "Best PG in the Class of 2005" competition--it's only by a sliver.

Josh Howard has been--clearly, IMO--the best player on the Dallas Mavericks in the early going. Nowitzki has been a sweet-shooting scoring machine in his career, but Howard has outscored him and out-shot him in all three percentage categories (and has made more 3s) this season. Dirk is still a great player, don't get me wrong, but Josh Howard is becoming The Man in Dallas--I've seen several games recently where he was the guy they turned to in the 4th, and he definitely delivers.

TROUBLE BREWING IN MIAMI

I think the Heat have a real problem on their hands. They're beyond terrible right now while waiting for Dwyane Wade to get back to his old, awesome self, but that's not what I'm talking about. Wade will get healthy, the team will get back to being competitive in the Eastern Conference--if not by this year, then next...but I strongly think they're well down a path that leads to them losing Wade in the summer of 2010.


This is a team with some serious institutional problems--well, one major institutional problem anyway:

Shaq sucks.

Shaq really, really sucks now.

He came into this season knowing Wade would be out with injury in the early going and that the team would need to rely on him--and he showed up fat and out of shape. He's done that before, of course, but he was able to work himself back into shape when he was 27--now that he's 35, it just doesn't happen that way. And with all the alarm bells ringing and every incentive in the world to prove people wrong, Shaq's averaging a very pedestrian 15 & 7.5 in the early going, and I don't see any improvement happening on the horizon. He's just completely done as even a good player, forget the old "baddest man in sports" golden days.


Now here's the rub: Shaq was signed to a horribly ill-advised contract extension that pays him $20,000,000 per for the next two seasons after this one--that culminates in the summer of 2010, which is exactly when Dwyane Wade has his opt-out. So you're paying this huge amount--in a salary cap sport--to someone who just completely blows now, a guy who can't even stay on the court for 30 minutes due to being so out of shape and foul prone (due to being so out of shape).


Here's what I see happening. They're going to be a middle of the road playoff team at best this year and the next two, and a huge step down from the Eastern big boys Boston, Orlando & Detroit (and maybe Toronto if they can ever get healthy). As the ugly Kobe situation shows, that's not exactly a dream scenario for a player of Wade's insane talent & drive. If everything goes just right, they're looking at some 45 win seasons and a bad second round playoff exit. That's if everything goes right. The worse case is Shaq deteriorates even further, Wade struggles with injury, they lose Ricky Davis in free agency this summer--we could be looking at a lottery team, even in the East. But a crappy kind of lottery team, a #12 pick instead of a #2 pick, the kind that doesn't get you enough help to get you out of the vicious cycle of mediocrity (without a lot of luck).


If this scenario happens--and I don't see how it doesn't--I think Wade is gone. Teams like Portland (or whoever is most like the current Portland team in 2010) will start stockpiling cap room in advance of the summer of 2010, and Wade will have his choice of 3-4 teams with good, young talent.


Ironically, Wade's injury might end up being the only thing that saves his future in Miami. The only way I see out of this mess is for this year's team to keep sucking hard, maybe get some luck in the lottery (or maybe they won't need it, they're currently the 3rd worst team in the league), and snag one of the major talents in what appears to be another strong draft. It won't quite match the Oden/Durant top end, but Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, OJ Mayo and others look like they'll make for a monster class.


Help probably won't be coming in free agency, at least not easily. Shaq's absurd contract combined with Wade's max deal means they have no cap room, and they just don't have much in the way of good, young tradeable pieces (although Daquan Cook and Dorrell Wright could possibly change that in the next two years). If they don't get major help in the draft, they'll likely have to take a chance on a damaged goods free agent (either an injury guy or a headcase), and that almost never works out.


The summers of 2009-2011 are going to be some interesting times indeed for the NBA, with megastars Kobe (2009), Wade (2010), Lebron & Carmelo (2011) all hitting their opt-outs, and all stuck in potentially bad situations. It's funny, but with the recent play of Jordan Farmar and Andrew Bynum, Kobe might have gone from the cusp of the trading block to the the most promising long-term situation of the four.


A FEW QUICKIES


It's really nice to see Richard Jefferson back to 100% healthy. He's always been a good all-around player, but he's been a veritable scoring machine in the early going this year, his 25.9 scoring average a good 3.7 points above his previous career high. He's going to the line a whopping 10.5 times per game (and shooting 84% there), joining Dwight Howard and Lebron James as the only players in double figures.


After watching the Utah Jazz physically dominate the Lakers without Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, I'm really starting to love this team, they're just big, tough, and athletic. Andrei Kirilenko seems to be fully recovered from his year-long nap last year, he's filling up the stat sheet with 11-7-6 and his typically strong blocks (2.4 per) and steals (1.7). Another guy I'm really starting to like on their team is Ronnie Brewer. He struggled last year after being a lottery pick, but he looks like a completely different player this season. He's a very active defender, and has a solid midrange offensive game. Early on, he's averaging a respectable 14-2.7-2.6, an excellent 2.4 steals, and shooting 52% from the floor. Nice player.


After a disastrous start, Golden State is 8-2 in their last 10 and looking like the team that finished up last season white hot. Stephen Jackson returning from suspension has made a huge difference, his athleticism and physicality is a large part of making that Warriors system work. He's averaging 22-5-4 in his first 12 games and does a yeoman's job on defense--not that he's an all-league defender or anything, but that team asks him to constantly d-up guys who are way bigger than him, and a lot of times their success comes down to whether Jackson (and Matt Barnes as well) can hold their own with the tough Western PFs.

Monta Ellis is also starting to come around, as I knew he would--he's just too athletic and talented not to make it. He's now up to 17-4-3 and shooting a very nice .476 from the floor.

Props also to Manu Ginobili; even though he's my single most hated player in the entire league because he's such a flopping piece of shit, you have to give it up for what this man does on the court. In under 30 minutes a game, Ginobili is averaging 21-5-4.5, shooting .478 from the floor and .438 from three, and playing his usual harassing (and flopping) defense. San Antonio just beat Utah *without Duncan* (Ginobili going for 37-8-6) to get to a ridiculous 17-3 on the year, sometimes you just have to tip your cap to a job well done--even when you can't stand the team.