BOXSCORE CHECK

A quick check of the boxscores of the NBA's opening two nights reveals the following interesting nuggets:

WEDNESDAY

Yi Jianlian gets the start in Milwaukee. I'm not surprised--I was a skeptic coming into the draft, but started coming around on him when I saw him in preseason. He's raw, but he's got some game. Put up 9 & 3 in 25 minutes on 4-5 shooting, not too shabby.

Rashard Lewis had 26 points on 9-13 shooting (incl. 4-5 from 3) in his Orlando debut, a blowout win over Milwaukee. Dwight Howard had 7 blocks in the game, absolutely destroying Andrew Bogut.


How do you like my boy Andrea Bargnani? 20 points in 22 minutes, on 6-11 shooting (3-4 from three). I'm telling you, this guy can really score. He doesn't do much else, but he can fill it up. TJ Ford piled up 12 assists against just 1 turnover in the Raptors uptempo system--exciting things happening in the great white north as they start out with a solid win over Philly.


Danny Granger begins his march to Josh Howard-hood with a nice 20 & 13 performance in a solid Pacers' OT win over Washington without Jermaine O'Neal. Granger went 5-9 (!) from three and had 2 steals and 2 blocks.


Tyrus Thomas struggled after getting the start in Chicago, putting up just 4 & 6 with no steals or blocks. They need more activity from him than that, and I'm sure they'll get it. If not, Andres Nocioni could be in for more minutes.


Same game--nice to see Richard Jefferson back healthy, he had a great debut with 29 & 10, playing 44 minutes as the Nets notched a solid win over the Bulls.


New Orleans blew out Sacto, I think they're going to be pretty damn good if they can stay healthy--but in a monster western conference, a "pretty damn good" team might not even make the playoffs. Anyway, Chris Paul had 22/8/12, Peja had 19 with 4 three pointers, and Tyson Chandler kept up his strong play from late last year, putting up 15 & 13 with 2 blocks.


And then there was Kevin Durant, struggling a bit in his debut. He had 18 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals and a block, but shot just 7-22 from the floor. Like I said a while ago, Durant will put up great numbers this year, but watch out for a terrible shooting percentage--this kid puts it up from anywhere on the floor. I think he has the same issue as Kobe Bryant when it comes to shot selection: any shot he takes is one that he's made hundreds of times in his lifetime--but that doesn't make it a good shot. Just because you can hit a 20-foot turnaround fadeaway from the baseline doesn't mean you should. It's just a matter of him figuring out which shots he can make 50% of the time and which ones he can make 40%--and taking a lot more of the former than the latter. He'll have some ups and downs this year, but make no mistake, I'm still president and founder of the Kevin Durant Fan Club.


TUESDAY

Great start to the season for LaMarcus Aldridge, he was unstoppable against a tough San Antonio front line, scoring 27 on 12-19 shooting. Martell Webster also stepped up, piling up 21 points after earning the start at SF. San Antonio ended up pulling away in the end, but Portland played them tough--on the road--for much of the game. If Oden were healthy, I think Portland is a playoff team as early as this season.


In the Laker loss to Houston, Kwame Brown got the surprise start over Andrew Bynum, but that may have been a punishment for Bynum being late to the game (my friend was stuck in traffic for 3 hours that night--going 20 miles--so I'm not going to attribute this to Bynum's immaturity). Kwame continued to stink, but Bynum had a couple nice stretches in limited minutes.

Not much else to report from this game--Kobe, Yao and T-Mac are all very good, and Houston's better than LA.

There was an Andrei Kirilenko sighting in Utah, AK-47 coming up with 9/9/8 with a steal and 5 blocks in a blowout win over Golden State. Deron Williams started strong in what I expect to be his coming out season with 24 & 8, and Ronnie Brewer had 18 after getting the starting nod at SG.

For Golden State, playing without the suspended Stephen Jackson, Kelenna Azuibuike got the start and had 11. Monta Ellis also started and put in 17. Marco Belinelli didn't get off the bench much, with 6 points in just 12 minutes, but PT status can change in a heartbeat with Don Nelson.

BREAKOUT PERFORMERS, PART 2

THE DARKHORSES

Before I get into it, let me clarify that I'm basing these picks on a ridiculously small sample size. See, I have this theory. Anybody in the NBA can have a good game. Hell, I remember a game when Matt Carroll---Matt freakin' Carroll--absolutely torched Kobe. The Lakers lost a game because one of the league's best perimeter defenders couldn't handle Matt freakin' Carroll.

But he didn't do anything special, he was just feeling it and had a lights-out shooting game. If he could make those shots every game, he'd be a shorter Dirk Nowitzi. But he can't consistently do what he did that night. I knew for a fact that I wasn't watching a breakout performance from one of the league's next superstars, I was just seeing a scrubby player get into the zone.

Now there's the opposite situation, where a player will do something that makes me do a double take, makes me look at him in an entirely different way. Matt Carroll can get red hot and make a bunch of shots, but he can't dribble through an entire team and throw down an absurd dunk in traffic--and when I saw Monta Ellis do that as a rookie, I took note.

I still didn't know for a fact that he'd end up being a real up-and-comer, there's still a major consistency issue. OK, you've done it once, now do it lots of times, game after game, season after season. But I did mentally adjust what I considered his top end to be.

I can watch one game of Matt Carroll's and know exactly how good he can possibly be. But when I see someone do something as spectacular as what Ellis did, it's like, wow, this guy could still end up sucking, he could still end up being mediocre, he could still end up being just pretty good--but he did something that showed me that he at least has a chance of being a real superstar, because that play was something that 95% of the league simply can't do, even when they're having one of those Matt-Carroll-torching-Kobe games.

So these are guys who've shown me something. Most games I'm watching that aren't the Lakers or Phoenix-Dallas or something, I'm only casually paying attention. But sometimes someone will do something that makes me literally double or triple take, where I'll have to rewind it a couple times to make sure I saw what I thought I saw. I still don't know if these players will pan out the way Ellis is doing, but they at least have the high end potential to be something more than Matt Carroll-in-the-zone.

In no particular order...

Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics

I love what this guy has done in preseason, he could end up being a valuable part of the support staff to the Celtics' big three. Rondo can drive on anyone in the league, he's a solid finisher, a good passer, and has some of the quickest hands in the NBA. If he can develop any semblance of a jumpshot, even a midrange one, he'll be a real tough matchup.

Shawne Williams, Indiana Pacers

I think this skinny 6'9 combo forward is still more than a year away (he's only 21), but I think he has a ton of potential--at least offensively. I saw a game of his late in the year where he looked fantastic, shooting the three, taking the ball to the rim, finishing on the break. He looks smooth out there, and with super high end athleticism. Check back in another year, I think he'll be on all the up-and-comer lists.

Thabo Sefalosha, Chicago Bulls

I said last year that this guy can really play, but will probably get lost in the shuffle in a talent-laden Chicago. Barring a trade, I don't see much different happening this year. That's OK, Sefalosha has time, he's only 23. Sefalosha, from Switzerland, is a super smooth shooting guard with great size, he's an excellent ballhandler, has nice form on the jumper, and could end up being an all-league caliber defender.

Amir Johnson, Detroit Pistons

Everyone has been waiting for this kid to finally get some PT after kicking ass in the D-League and putting up a couple monster games (f0r a second straight year) in late regular season scrub time, and the Pistons say he's going to get it this year. Playing against Philadelphia's decent first stringers last year, including a solid front line of Samuel Dalembert, Steven Hunter and Joe Smith, Johnson went for 12 & 10 with 6 blocks. Against the Celtics' Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins, an excellent and solid player respectively, Johnson had 20 & 12 with 3 steals and 4 blocks. If nothing else (this season), Amir will throw some weak shit back in people's faces, I can guarantee that.

Andray Blatche, Washington Wizards

This was a straight-from-high-school 2nd round draft pick in 2005 who kind of got lost in the shuffle a little, but is now starting to turn a few heads. He only just turned 21, and is a legit 6'11 250 pounds with excellent athleticism. The Wizards gave him a few starts last year and he averaged a solid 7 & 6 with 1.2 blocks per in only 23 minutes. He's got great size, great athleticism, a solid skill level with a suprisingly soft touch, and he's got nice energy. He also handles the ball pretty well, he's almost more of a combo forward than a PF/C type. I like this guy a lot. On a team with no real big man depth, I think Blatche could start to really bust out by the end of the season.

Darius Washington, San Antonio Spurs

OK, here's a real dark horse for you. Washington is out of Memphis, he left early after his sophomore year and went undrafted. The Mavs picked him up last year and then cut him, now he's with the Spurs. The 21-year-old point guard will likely contribute little to nothing this year for the champion Spurs, but keep an eye on him down the line. The Spurs are the best team in the league at indentifying talent (see: Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, et al), and I've read that they're super high on Washington. He's lightning quick, but with the size and strength to finish at the rim. He's not a lights out shooter, and isn't a natural PG--more of a combo guard. But he's been great in preseason and I think the Spurs are looking at him as an eventual part of a rebuilding process when the Duncan era ends (hopefully soon).

Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz

This is kind of a cheapie, as most hardcore NBA fans already know all about Millsap, an undersized PF out of Louisiana Tech, but I just want to reiterate how awesome he is and what a great draft pick Utah made to get him in the middle of the 2nd round. In just 18 minutes per game last year, Millsap averaged 7 & 5 with almost one steal and block per game. He's smallish at just 6'8, but he's wide (260 pounds), strong as hell, very active, and surprisingly athletic--don't PFs with that description seemingly always make it big in the NBA? Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, etc. Meanwhile the Lakers are stuck with Kwame Brown, an ideally sized block of muscle who's below average in every single aspect of being an NBA power forward.

Robert Swift, Seattle Supersonics

OK, I'm going way out there again. Swift not only has done almost nothing in his short NBA career, he's also now coming off a major knee injury that cost him an entire season. It's just that 2 years ago, his second season in the NBA, I thought he was starting to put it together a little. In 20 starts that year, in just 27 minutes per game, he put up a solid 8 & 7 and a very solid 1.7 blocks. He's skinny and somewhat awkward, but I think he has a good skill level--and he is a legit seven footer after all. I hope he can get completely healthy and start showing us what he can do by the second half of this season. But there might be a problem with a crowded Seattle front court--in addition to Nick Collison and fellow first-round-pick seven-footers Saer Sene and Johan Petro, there's new addition Kurt Thomas.

Kelenna Azuibuike/Marco Belinelli, Golden State Warriors

Who knows what guys are going to get minutes in Don Nelson's manic system, but I'm telling you, these two guys can really play. Azuibuike tore up the D-League and then performed well for the Warriors last year when they called him up, giving the team 7 points a game in 16 minutes per over 41 games. He's got great size for a shooting guard at 6'5 220, he's a big time athlete, and has solid skills--he can shoot, handle, and defend. The Warriors are absolutely loaded with swing players, including Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, and Al Harrington, but I predict Azuibuike ends up getting minutes and producing for this team.

In fact, it's because of Azuibuike that I'm slightly cooler on Belinelli, a 21-year-old 6'5 shooting guard out of Italy--than many other NBA types. Don't get me wrong, I love his game, I just don't know if he'll be able to break into the crowded rotation for 20 minutes a game. But it's Don Nelson, so who the hell knows, maybe Belinelli will be starting and getting 33 minutes by the end of the year. What Belinelli has going for him in the Don Nelson system is that he can really pull. He has one of the quickest releases in the league, and crazy range. Belinelli may or may not produce this year, but mark it down, he will down the line.

Al Thornton, Los Angeles Clippers

Of all the rookies in this draft class, I think Thornton is the most likely to produce this year except for Kevin Durant and Al Horford. Thornton has been fantastic in preseason as an athletic and energetic combo forward, and Elton Brand's injury opens the door to major PT. Thornton also has a smooth stroke, he can definitely put the ball in the basket.

Jordan Farmar, Los Angeles Lakers

What kind of blogger would I be if I didn't have irrational exuberance over my home team? Seriously, I love what I've seen of Farmar this preseason, I think he's made a major jump forward. I thought his problems last year--streaky shooting, too many turnovers--were relatively easy to fix, and it looks like he's greatly improved in those areas. Farmar has good size and outstanding athleticism (he has like a 42" vertical leap), he can penetrate and pass, and can potentially be a great defender. It's just a question now of playing smart and under control, and knocking down the many wide open shots a PG gets in the Laker triangle offense with Kobe Bryant commanding the attention he does.

FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGHTS

So I watched the Boston Celtics dismantle Cleveland--with most of the starters playing big minutes--in preseason tonight, and I'm getting pretty excited about this team.

I love how the big three play together, they're all sharing the ball (34 assists on 45 baskets tonight!) and playing smart, and everyone is feeding off Garnett's unbelievable intensity and energy. Pierce is a one-man halfcourt offense, Garnett does everything on the court you could possibly ask for, and Allen is just sitting out there beyond the three point line being patient, licking his chops and knocking down daggers.

But here's the thing--I'm starting to think their supporting cast can develop into a real asset by the end of the season. I think Kendrick Perkins can be an excellent role player if you ask him to simply rebound whatever KG misses, block shots and get garbage baskets. Playing with the three superstars really takes the pressure off, and I think the big fella is going to thrive in his limited role.

I'm also very high on the young point guard, Rajon Rondo. I liked him a lot last year, but wondered if he'd get lost in the shuffle this season with three solid ballhandlers dominating the team. It's still possible--Boston looks like it wants to run the offense through Ray Allen quite a bit--but he really put on a show tonight. He can drive at will, he's a good finisher at the basket and getting better all the time, and he's a solid passer. I think he's going to cause a lot of problems for teams who are already having a nightmare of a time matching up with the big three.

Tony Allen probably will get lost in the shuffle a bit, but the guy can definitely play--it'll just come down to whether he can thrive as a role player or not, not everyone is suited to that. If he can't fit the bill, then there's always instant-offense Eddie House, one of my favorite scrub players to watch in the NBA.

Speaking of guys who thrive as role players, the Celts quietly made an excellent acquisition this summer in snagging James Posey. Posey can play--and defend--three positions, he can handle the ball, finish on the break, clean up on the glass, and he just gives them a big time energy guy and steady veteran off the bench. If either Pierce or Allen gets hurt this year, you can toss Posey in there for 40 minutes no problem.

The major weakness on the Celtics' bench is their big men. Rookie Glen Davis looks very promising at a svelte 290 pounds (down significantly from his LSU days), but I don't know how much you can count on him right away. The others fighting for playing time are non-household-names Leon Powe and Brian Scalabrine, and old pro Scott Pollard figures to be in the mix by default--they have no other centers on the entire roster. Even if KG gets some minutes there, you're going to need someone else to hold down the fort on the many occasions Perkins is in foul trouble.

Bottom line, the conventional wisdom is right, this team lives or dies on its big three and isn't loaded with depth. But if Perkins and Rondo come out strong this season, and they get solid bench play from Posey, Tony Allen and Eddie House--and something from at least one of the big guys--that'll be what takes Boston from a good 50-win team in the junior varsity conference to a true championship contender. Here's hoping it happens. I generally hate Boston sports team as much as anyone else outside of Boston--most especially the 80s-era Celtics. But I have an impossible time not rooting for Kevin Garnett. He's exactly what sportswriters and fans always ask from their athletes, a guy who would step on babies and kick old ladies in the face to win games.

What, you don't want to see Kevin Garnett kick an old woman in the face?

Sure you don't.

BREAKOUT PERFORMERS

I know everyone has one of these lists out right now, but mine will be different because it....uh....will be good. Remember how I was all over Monta Ellis, Mo Williams, Al Jefferson and Leandro Barbosa this time last year? Yeah, I thought so, bitch.

OK, I'm going to break this into two sections--guys everyone else is pimping (I didn't even include Andre Iguodala above, since everyone and his grandmother knew he'd bust out), and the dark horses.

POPULAR PICKS

1. LeMarcus Aldridge.

I said last year he should have been the #1 pick, and I think I'd still go in that direction (although I expect Tyrus Thomas and Andrea Bargnani to make big moves this year). Aldridge is a legit 6'10 and has one of the longest wingspans in the league. He's a highly skilled player with a sweet J and well-developed post moves, and he's tougher than everyone thought he'd be. Don't get me wrong, you're not going to confuse this skinny bastard with Shaq, but he can bang around inside, pick up 8-10 boards, and block shots. He would have been the ideal complement to a healthy Greg Oden, a true center, but alas, that plan is on hold for a year. Still, with or without Oden, the team thought highly enough of Aldridge to send 20-10 Zach Randolph packing, they clearly believe Aldridge is ready to step up to a productive 35-minute-a-night big man.

In Aldridge's final 15 games last year before getting hurt, all starts, he put up 14.7 & 8 on .519 shooting and averaged 0.9 steals and 1.6 blocks per--all in just over 30 minutes per game. With Randolph out of the picture and Oden on the sidelines, I think Aldridge will start out with those kind of numbers and then improve steadily through the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up an Al Jefferson second half from last year where he's going 20 & 10 with 2 blocks a night.

2. Danny Granger
(BTW, this numbering system doesn't mean anything)

Everyone is picking this guy to break out, he has Josh Howard written all over him. Every time I saw him play last year, I couldn't believe he was averaging only 13 a game. In the second half of last year he bumped that to 15, but I think he should go even higher this season. He's a solid shooter, good at going to the rim & finishing once he's there, and money from the line--that should add up to 17-18 a game easy. And you can throw in 5-6 boards, 2-3 assists and excellent defense on top of that.

3. Deron Williams

I know, he's already damn good, but looking at his numbers last year--16 & 9--I think he's going to solidly improve on that and join the ranks of the true superstars. We all saw what he could do in the playoffs last year, and watching him in the FIBA Americas Championship just clinched it for me. Williams has to be brimming with confidence coming into this season, I think he's getting ready to completely blow up.

4. Mike Conley Jr.

I don't know if Conley will be a star from day one, but I think he'll be one of these young PGs who wins more and more PT from the starting veteran throughout the season, then finishes strong as the #1 guy. I've seen Damon Stoudamire & Terrence Kinsey--they're no Mike Conley. He can't shoot, but like Chris Paul, he can do everything else. He drives at will, he has a solid midrange game, he's a great ballhandler and gifted passer--he just has a very mature, NBA-ready game. I think Conley has a good chance to be the next great young PG after Paul & Williams.

5. Randy Foye

Another guy who might not start out like a house on fire, but should have steady improvement through the year and then finish strong when a crappy Minnesota team commits fully to the youth movement. In Foye's last 10 games, he put up 15.4/3.5/3.8. In his last 30, he averaged 12.2/2.6/3.5 in 26 minutes, solid per-minute numbers, and shot .448 from the floor, .875 from the line, and an excellent .393 from three on almost 3 attempts per game. I'm still not sure about Foye's long term superstardom prospects--gut says no--but I think he'll be a solid 16 & 5 guy by the end of this season.

6. Andrea Bargnani

I like this dude a lot. Didn't think I would, but I do. I'm not sure I want this guy playing center for me, but small forward? Absolutely. After the all-star break, Bargnani put up a solid 14.9 & 5.6 (in fewer than 30 minutes per game) and shot .456 from the floor and a sparkling .403 from three on 5.5 attempts per game. In short, the man can pull. Bargnani is expected to start this year and get big minutes. This is a young, exciting, hungry team playing an uptempo system, and with strong PG play. I don't see any way Bargnani doesn't become an offensive force this season.

7. Nene

Nene had a huge second half for Denver, finally staying healthy and showing why this team gave him $60M before he had accomplished jack in the league. Post all-star, he averaged 14 & 8 with 1.1 steals and .9 blocks, shooting a ridiculous .624 from the floor. Hey, dunks count for 2 points too. He's coming off yet another injury, suffered in the FIBA Americas Championship, but all reports have him likely ready to go by the start of the season or shortly thereafter. This guy is still only 25--if he can stay healthy, there's still a ton of upside here.

8. Andrew Bynum

This could be a major case of wishful thinking, but I honestly think Big Andrew has done well to position himself for a breakout season. I said last year I'd be able to tell from the first preseason game what Bynum is going to do this year based on his waistline alone, and I can tell you, all the reports about him busting his ass in the offseason appear to be on the level, he looks like he's in the best shape of his life. Skills aren't the problem, Bynum has a solid post game, outstanding hands, he rebounds and blocks shots--it's his general fitness level that's lacking, and I have high hopes that he's addressed that.

If he wins the starting job (and if he doesn't win it outright to start the season, he will once Phil Jackson realizes yet again how bad Kwame Brown & Chris Mihm suck) and plays hard for 30+ minutes a game, I think you can pencil in 12 & 10 with 2 blocks--basically a slight improvement over his January numbers when he had that great stretch that left the Lakers poo-poohing offers for Kevin freakin' Garnett. If he's too fat/slow/disinterested/foul-prone, expect him to be lost in the shuffle again and the Lakers organization (and your humble scribe) to go into complete panic mode.

To be clear here, I'm not saying Bynum is an especially lazy player, I just think he's a typical young guy who doesn't know how much hard work even the most physically gifted player has to put in in order to become a superstar. Maybe he'll get it, maybe he won't. Time will certainly tell.

Even more obvious breakout candidates than those above: Brandon Roy, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Corey Maggette, Luol Deng

On the fence, but gut says no: Ray Felton, Marvin Williams, Jameer Nelson

On the fence, but gut says yes: Rudy Gay

Next time: The Darkhorses

TV THOUGHTS

OLD SHOWS

The Office--

I think The Office is in a 1994-Simpsons kind of run right now, where they're just knocking every single episode out of the park. The episode from two weeks ago, with the launch party (and the brilliant B-story of Dwight competing in sales against the Dunder Mifflin website) was one of the best things I've seen in the last five years.

And I don't know if all the episodes this season are going to be an hour long (probably not, as Scrubs is FUCKING UNBELIEVABLY coming back for yet another death rattle--does Zach Braff have a sense of shame?!), but what show does more than they have to? What show looks at a 22-episode schedule and decides they can do more than that. And then do it. Brilliantly. The hour-long episodes have been fantastic from minute 1 to minute 60.

This is the Tom Brady of television right now, the best show in the best run of its lifetime.

2. 30 Rock

30 Rock started to really hit its stride in the last couple months last year, and I think they've come back strong to start season two. This is my second favorite network sitcom now (not that there's a huge amount of competition--I mean, look at the new ones this year: Carpoolers? The Big Bang Theory? Back to You? Painful. Just painful.) I think My Name is Earl got a desperately needed bit of fresh air from the Earl-goes-to-prison story, but IMO, 30 Rock is way better.

3. Heroes

Ugh. I was already on the fence on this blatant X-Men ripoff by the end of last season, and this one has started out as a real stinker. I loathe the Hiro story where he goes back in time to help the guy who will become Japanese legend. Oh no, what if the guy always remains a drunken coward, imagine the repercussions! Oh wait, there wouldn't be any. At all. So who gives a shit? I'm guessing they're including this because Kensai will turn out to be one in a long line of heroes that reaches back to the Knights Templar (or something else from recent popular culture the writers can shamelessly rip off).

The Clair story sucks, the two new Mexican characters are awful (and mildly racist, as they're seen with the usual brown-people childlike wonder & superstition in religion that us white folk understand on a much more intellectual level), and I want Parkman and the Indian guy to kill each other in some sort of a duel. The only stories I care at all about are Siler's (wait--I thought he was killed in an act of selflessness (which I guess wasn't all that selfless because everyone seems to be A-OK now)--nope, guess not) and Peter's.

I can see how other people like this show--like my wife, for instance--but I personally think it has some of the laziest writing on TV. The whole idea was a ripoff to start, the dialogue is terrible, and I don't think they had a clue at the end of last season where they were taking the story. I can understand not having the scripts written because you have no idea if the show's going to be picked up or not, but don't you at least have an idea of where you might want to take the main story lines? And if not, you can't think up something better on the fly than "everybody sacrifices to kill the bad guy in an epic showdown, but now the bad guy's OK and so is everyone else". Huh. So, Tim Kring...what was the point of all that then? Oh, you don't know either. I see.

4. Friday Night Lights

This breaks my heart, but what was last year one of my favorite shows on TV now...isn't. The great thing about this show has always been it's authenticity, every line of dialogue and every situation was completely believable and true to life (other than, ironically, the overly dramatic last-second football wins). Now they introduce us in season two to this ridiculous teen-horror-movie murder story--from the first second Landry hit the guy, I knew this show had gone terribly wrong. I guess they feel they have to do something to get some viewers, it barely squeaked through to get another season, but this has completely changed the show into something it never was. And what it is now, I don't like. I guess I'll stick with it another episode or two, but the show is officially on notice.

NEW SHOWS

This crop has been a real piece of crap collectively, but I've found a few that I like.

1. Pushing Daisies

This show isn't for everyone, it's quirky as hell, but I really, really like it. It's a dark comedy about a guy who can temporarily bring people back to life, under a set of quirky & arbitrary conditions. It's funny (but again, their sense of humor is definitely not for everyone), weird, and visually attractive. And it's the most original thing to hit network TV in years. Give it a try.

2. Reaper

This is another quirk-fest, about a kid (played by the excellent Bret Harrison from The Loop) who's had his soul sold to the devil by his parents and is forced to work as a catcher of escapees from hell. It's part slacker comedy, part Buffy the Vampire Slayer, and the end result is pretty winning.

3. Aliens in America

Another CW show, along with Reaper, that's trying to do something different. This show is about a family in Wisconsin who takes in a Muslim foreign exchange student, with a vibe like That 70's Show. I'm not 100% fully on board with this show yet--it's patchy in spots--but I think it has a lot of potential.

4. Cavemen

This is another one where I think it's been only OK so far, and too inconsistent, but with potential. The most recent episode, the frozen yogurt one, was pretty solid IMO, I laughed consistently the whole way through. A friend says this show might turn out to be a winner because of the talent of the 3 guys who play the main characters, and I think I agree with him--they're all pretty good, especially the pompous grad student. But I don't know if this show is going to make it, it's hemorrhaged a lot of viewers after a strong start, that's not a good sign. It was probably on a short leash to begin with.

And to close, an exegesis of one of my favorite unintentionally hilarious commercials on TV:

It's for Liberty Mutual insurance company, the one where a person sees someone do a good deed, so they do a good deed later on. Then someone sees that and does their own good deed, etc., etc., and it keeps going in a never-ending cycle.

So the last two go like this--A black woman sees a young man help out some pathetic old guy with his luggage at the airport carousel, and she nods her head and is like, "helping people is good--I never thought of it like that before!"

So we cut to her scene of selflessness--it's a stoned pizza delivery guy jamming to his iPod who's about to walk directly in front of a bus--but the black chick holds him back. That's her random act of kindness, stopping someone from getting himself splattered all over the street. I'm not saying that's not a good thing to do, but what's funny here is the implication that, before seeing the young guy helping out the old dude at the airport, she would have seen the pizza guy and just been like, "Good luck with that buddy."--or maybe even chuckled a little to herself, "Ha--that guy's about to die!"

But fortunately that helpful young man taught her a little something about life and humanity--if someone's about to get themselves killed...intervene! Thank you Liberty Mutual Insurance Company!

KOBE: THE FINAL CHAPTER?

I don't think so. Kobe rumors are heating up again, but earlier reports that had his locker cleaned out are getting no confirmation whatsoever. My guess? If he's not traded in the next 24 hours, then we're right back to where we were yesterday: Kobe doesn't get traded unless someone finally sucks it up and wows Jerry Buss with an offer.

Buss is clearly sick of Kobe and is supposedly a rash kind of guy, but I think he learned from the Shaq situation that you can't just auction off a top 25 player of all time to casual bidders unless you absolutely have a gun to your head. He'll have a gun to his head in another 12-18 months, but not now. I'd hold steady and bet that somebody will break sometime this season--like Chicago when they're looking at yet another 45 win season and 2nd round playoff exit, or Phoenix next summer after they once again fail to get past the Spurs.

Laker fan opinion on several proposed offers:

1. Josh Howard, Jason Terry and two #1s

No chance. No chance in hell. I love Josh Howard's game, but I think he's close to maxing out his potential and that leaves him in a jockstrap-carrying position vis a vis Kobe. Howard's a great #2, but he's a solid tier below the superstar level. Terry's a smart, solid player, but he's nothing special and the Lakers already have two promising young PGs in Javaris Crittenton and Jordan Farmar. And the two #1s would be in the 30s, those are almost useless.

2. Luol Deng and some combination of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and Andres Nocioni.

Now we're talking, but I still need to get Gordon (an elite scorer and game finisher) or Thomas (athletic freakshow/potential superstar), I'm not taking Deng, Hinrich and Nocioni/draft pick. Deng is already very, very good at age 22 and could keep getting better, but he also might top out as a 22/7 Josh Howard-type. Let's put this into perspective here; forget Kobe, Deng has a long way to go to get to the Shawn Marion level--and you're probably not going to win championships with Shawn Marion as your #1.

3. Amare Stoudemire and Raja Bell

Now we're really talking. Any trade that involves Amare Stoudemire is fine by me. I'd literally take Amare straight up. The key to trading Kobe is that you need to get another *true superstar* in return. Josh Howard or Luol Deng might turn into one, but Amare's already there. He's a 24-year-old center who's the 2nd most athletically gifted big man in the league (Dwight Howard) and has a skill set that calls to mind a young Karl Malone. The way Amare has turned into an absolutely money 15-foot shooter tells you everything you need to know about the guy--Nash or no, Amare can really, really hoop. He can shoot, he can finish on the break or pick-and-roll as well as anyone in the league, he can take the ball to the rack, he can get to the FT line (where he's turned himself into an 80% shooter), he rebounds, and he's becoming a better defensive player all the time. If I had to list the 10 guys I'd currently want to build a franchise around, Amare would be high on the list--in fact the only guys I'd definitely take over him are Wade, Lebron, Carmelo and Dwight Howard, with Bosh and Yao right there.

And I do honestly think this deal works for both teams. I think having an elite finisher like Kobe makes it more likely they get past San Antonio (plus it gives them a *real* defensive stopper, something they're obviously lacking after Ginobili once again showed up Raja Bell for the overrated hack he is). I'd put Boris Diaw back at center and go small all the time. They won 54 games with Diaw at center in 2005-2006, and now you have a bit of an upgrade with Kobe over Raja Bell--I think that team is one of the all time nightmare matchups in NBA history.

A friend suggests throwing Leandro Barbosa in the deal instead of Raja Bell with the Lakers giving up Andrew Bynum. I think it works on paper from a talent standpoint, but I don't think Bynum can play the D'Antoni system. His conditioning has improved a lot since he came into the league, but he's not going to run the floor 35 minutes a night like Amare, there's just no way. But at least he'd give them a better defensive matchup with Duncan, who also eats Phoenix alive.

So that's about it, I'm guessing Kobe doesn't get dealt to Dallas period, and not to Chicago unless Deng is involved. I just can't peg Phoenix's mindset--it seems like if Amare really were on the table, a deal would have been made by now. And it would be perfectly understandable if they wanted to give the current lineup one more shot. Without David Stern and his series-throwing decision to suspend Amare, who knows what would have happened last year.

The Lakers have months and months before it's panic time and they're forced to make a move, there's just no reason to rush anything. Sure, the Lakers have less bargaining power as we get closer to Kobe's opt-out date in the summer of 2009, but these teams still have to compete against each other (and how many of them are even close to having the cap room?) I'm hoping Buss just stands pat and waits for someone to get fed up with the status quo and finally decide to roll the dice. It'll happen.

I'm pretty sure.