It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year

"Sports season" begins today with the NBA season tip-off.

This is the time of year when there's so much beauty in the sports world, I feel like I can't stand it, like my heart's going to cave in.

You have the beginning of basketball season and the stretch run of college and pro football all colliding into a jumble of orgasmic sports joy. Baseball and (real) golf are over, so they're not clogging up Sportscenter with their mundane "highlights"...if only hockey would go on strike again! But that's too much to ask. It's like asking for Michigan to have a great football team and a moderately competent basketball team. We had it once, we got greedy, we flew too close to the sun--now we're wallowing in the sea of mediocrity for eternity.

Anyway, I digress.

Before I get to my thoughts on championship contenders, a few items of note:

Jalen Rose got cut by the Knicks--he could end up being a key addition to a playoff team the way Michael Finley was for the Spurs. Rose can still score and shoot the three (18.5 PPG on 40% 3PT shooting just two years ago), and just as importantly can handle the ball and pass like a PG. That's a valuable guy to have on your bench, even if you're only going to be playing him 15 minutes a game. It seems like Miami is the early favorite, but I'm not sure that makes the most sense for Rose. They're a deep team, I'm not sure how many minutes Rose would get once Jason Williams comes back from injury. I'm sure Rose wants to win, but I'm also quite sure he wants to *play*. Other teams allegedly interested are Detroit, Denver, Minnesota nnd the Lakers. I personally think Detroit would be a great fit for him--winning team, his hometown city, and the Pistons are pretty thin off the bench (especially as they're unsure whether they're ever going to get consistent production from Carlos Delfino).

Side note: The Knicks are paying out almost $60,000,000 this year to players no longer on the team. That's more than what 12 teams are paying their entire active rosters this year, including expected playoff teams Detroit, Chicago, Orlando, Houston and the Clippers.

CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS

As I see it, seven teams have a shot at winning it all this year. I've ranked them here in reverse order of probability of taking home the championship (as opposed to expected regular season wins):

7. Cleveland

As they stood at the end of last season, they aren't nearly good enough to compete for the 2007 NBA championship. But you all know why they're included in this ranking: LBJ. Simply put, there's always the possibility that James just takes his game to an even higher level than it's already at, and that would make James and 4 Mo Taylors a contender. The Cavs, counting on this idea, did little in the offseason to improve. I do like the additions of Shannon Brown and Daniel Gibson, two athletic, productive guards who defend and handle the ball well. Both have played very well in preseason.

They may experience some internal improvement as well. Donyell Marshall had a horrendous season last year, but I expect him to get back to his usual productive self. If nothing else, the Cavs need him to regain his shooting stroke. The three prior years, he shot .379, .404 and .416 from three--last year it was down to .324.

Another candidate for improvement is Anderson Varejao. After averaging a modest 4.6 & 4.9 in just 16 minutes a game in the regular season, Varejao really started to break out in the playoffs, picking up 9 PPG in the Pistons series and showing some serious flashes of potential. He's only 24, and he's a hyperathletic and extremely active big man. He's probably a fouling machine at this point, but I expect his minutes to go way up backing up Gooden and Ilgauskas at the 4 and 5.

Still, short of Lebron taking it to ridiculous heights this year, I just don't think Cleveland has the supporting cast to hang with the true elites. I expect them to duplicate their 50 win season from last year and be a team that *nobody* wants to play in the playoffs (for fear of LBJ pulling an "'86 MJ vs. Boston" on them), but ultimately falling short.

6. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have amassed a ton of talent. They're deep, they're big, they're athletic, they're experienced. They go 10 deep, they're one of the few teams with a legit PF *and* C, they have wing slashers and wing scorers, and they have the two-headed PG monster of Livingston and Cassell. The last is why I don't think they can win the championship this year.

Here's the deal--the Clippers are kind of in a weird spot right now. Cassell is on the down side of his career, Livingston is on the up side, and it feels to me like the Clippers are going to spend the year trying to figure out which direction they should go: let Cassell run the show in the hopes of making a title run this season, or turning it over to Livingston and setting themselves up for contention in the next few years.

I think they're going to go the latter direction. They just don't have a lot of confidence in Cassell, as evidenced by him sitting during absolutely crucial stretches of the playoffs last year in favor of Livingston. Plus Livingston's ceiling is so ridiculously high, he's every bit as much the future of this organization as Brand and Kaman are. I'm looking for Livingston to start and get the majority of the minutes by the end of the year, and as highly as I think of him, I don't think he's *quite* ready to lead this team to a championship.

But they're certainly a legitimate contender. Brand is obviously one of the 5-10 best players in the game. He scores at will in the post, he's a deadly 10-15 foot jumpshooter, he owns the boards, and he's the best on-ball shotblocker in the game (as opposed to a help-defender shotblocker, like a Camby--which is damned valuable too, don't get me wrong). Kaman is one of the best young centers in the league and will most likely just keep getting better. I like the addition of Aaron Williams, a solid & skilled big man who can spell Brand & Kaman at the 4/5, and the Clippers also have high hopes for Paul Davis out of Michigan State. Corey Maggette is healthy, and when healthy is a productive scorer and solid defender. Mobley and Tim Thomas give them the shooters a big man-dominated team needs, and Quinton Ross looked like a young Bruce Bowen in the playoffs last year, locking up players ranging from Steve Nash to Tim Thomas.

But Livingston is the key here. He's a great on-ball defender, he passes like a young Magic, he rebounds, and he drives at will. His outside shooting is terrible, but his midrange game has improved quite a bit, and as Dwyane Wade shows, if you can get to the basket any time you want and also stick the 15 foot jumper, you don't need to hit the three. Like I said, I think he's a year or two away from stardom. But as long as he stays healthy, I think we'll see the genesis of that transition this year.

5. Phoenix

I know, it seems like everything is shaping up for them this year with Amare coming back. They're talented, they're athletic, they're deep, they have a great 1-2-3 superstar combo with Nash-Amare-Marion, they have like 7 guys who can shoot the three--so what's the problem?

Well, nothing really, you don't have to have a 'problem' to be only the 5th most likely team to win the championship, it just means that 4 other teams are better. I want Phoenix to win it all, it would be good for the kind of basketball we all like to watch. But I just don't see it happening this year, I think the four teams ahead of them are all a shade better (I mean in terms of running the playoff gauntlet; the Suns could easily end up with the best record in basketball).

If the Suns do have a problem, it's clearly Amare. They're being smart by letting him work himself into shape--he's supposedly going to come off the bench to start the season, and only play 15-20 minutes a night. Excellent idea. No sense messing the guy up in November when the real season doesn't start until May. The way the Lakers operated with Shaq during their championship years should be a good guide here--it's a lot more important that your stud player is 100% healthy and fresh when the playoffs roll around than even home court advantage is. Not to mention that the Suns might be so good even with Amare playing half-speed for a few months, they might not be sacrificing home court anyway.

I just love their team, I love the way they play. I love Nash--who doesn't?--but I also love Diaw and Marion and Barbosa and their gunners. They're just a fun team to watch and root for. Except Raja Bell, the biggest pussy flopper in the league since Karl Malone.

Anyway, they might have integration issues with Amare, but ultimately I don't think they can win a championship without him being prominently involved on both ends of the floor, so they better figure it out. And I think they know that--nobody will soon forget the way he utterly destroyed Tim Duncan (Tim fucking Duncan!) in the playoffs two years ago. Amare's offensive game is so good and well-rounded, I don't think it'll end up being much of an issue. So you run the pick-and-roll with Amare half the time instead of Diaw, you get fewer kickouts to open shooters, more highlight-reel dunks in guys' faces. Now if Amare is *way* less than 100% athletically, which he may well be even by the end of the season, that obviously changes things...but he's still a deadly 10-12 foot jumpshooter, I'm sure he can still get to the rim on that pick-and-roll, he can still rebound, and still be a shotblocking threat--and that might be the key part of all of this, the Suns missed having a shotblocker desperately in the playoffs last year.

I do think Diaw will suffer a bit with Amare on the floor, he really does most of his damage on that pick-and-roll. Still, he's such a skilled player, I think he'll figure out a way to be productive. His scoring might take a hit, but I still see him getting double figures, rebounding, and being a major facilitator in the offense.

With Nash and Marion, you know what you're getting. In Nash you have the smartest, craftiest, most creative player in the league, someone who can shoot the lights out from anywhere on the court, can drive to--and finish at--the basket, and creates open shots for everyone on the team. In Marion, you have someone who simply excels in every area in which you can excel on a basketball court.

Meanwhile the Suns picked up the very solid Marcus Banks to spell Steve Nash (as with Amare, they want Nash fresh and healthy when the real season starts), and Jumaine Jones to play the Tim Thomas role from last year, which Jones is perfectly capable of doing. In fact, he and Thomas are virtually clones, two big, very athletic guys who can hit the open three all day long. Jones hit .391 from three playing that role with the Lakers two years ago.

I also love Leandro Barbosa, he's one of my favorite players in the league to watch. The term "unguardable" is thrown out all too often these days, but... He's the quickest guy in the league, hands down--watching him blow past Kobe in the playoffs last year was surreal; *nobody* blows past Kobe like that. And combine that blow-by ability with a deadly--if jacked up looking--jumper, and you have someone who just can't be stopped. If he were on a lesser team and the focal point of the offense, he'd score 20 a game in his sleep. He's 23...this dude is going to be really, really good in this league.

But my bottom line opinion on this team is that they'll spend the entire year trying to work Amare in, they'll get to the playoffs and need him to be a superstar and he just won't be ready to do it. I'm just hoping he can be at least somewhat healthy the entire season and then be back somewhere remotely close to 100% for a 2007-2008 Suns' championship run. I'm worried though--what basketball player ever suffered an injury of this magnitude and came back to anywhere near 100%?

TOMORROW: The Elite Four

Fantasy Basketball Rankings: SF, PF, C

Small Forwards
1. Lebron James -- #1 player overall, awesome everywhere but FT%.
2. Paul Pierce -- too many TOs, but good everywhere else.
3. Tracy McGrady -- major injury risk, but will put up great numbers if he stays healthy--including, I expect, a major bump in FG%.
4. Carmelo Anthony -- was on fire at the end of last year; just keeps getting better. I think we'll see a solid jump in his non-scoring categories this year.
5. Richard Jefferson -- bad in the defensive categories, but kills Wallace in FT%.
6. Gerald Wallace -- injury prone, but huge numbers in a breakout year. 2+ steals & blocks.
7. Rashard Lewis -- playing for a contract, could see a rise from his already solid numbers.
8. Peja Stojakovic -- great situation for him playing with Paul.
9. Caron Butler -- was putting up 20 a night after the all-star break last year, has great percentages & steals.
10. Ron Artest -- horrible in the percentage categories and TOs, good everywhere else.
11. Morris Peterson -- 3 pt & scoring specialist.
12. Josh Howard -- great all around player, and I expect him to get better.
13. Andres Nocioni -- really started breaking out down the stretch & in the playoffs, huge upside.
14. Hedo Turkoglu -- great 3s, percentages.
15. Mike Miller -- same.
16. Wally Sczerbiak -- coming back from injury, but had a monster year last year in scoring & percentages. His game doesn't rely much on athleticism, so he might be able to stay at those levels.
17. Tayshaun Prince -- not great anywhere, but good everywhere.
18. Luol Deng -- was also playing very well at the end of last year, but there's a PT issue with the very deep Bulls.
19. Shane Battier -- I'm not as high on him as some. Great fit for him in Houston, but he got big minutes last year & had only so-so numbers. Very good in blocks.
20. Darius Miles -- If he can stay healthy, he can put up numbers. Talent isn't an issue with him.
21. Bobby Simmons -- Good scoring, rebounding, FG%, and that's about it.
22. Josh Childress -- Silky smooth player with a chance to get bigger minutes & production with Al Harrington out of the way.
23. Kyle Korver -- 3 pt specialist.
24. Michael Pietrus -- Exciting real-life player who's being given every chance to pan out in Golden State. He could be this year's Boris Diaw.
25. Adam Morrison -- He can score, but he's worthless as a fantasy player unless he can hit the NBA 3. So far in preseason, he's been pretty solid.
26. Rudy Gay -- Will get lots of opportunities in a suddenly not deep Memphis. I'm predicting good scoring numbers, not much else, and bad percentages.

Power Forwards
1. Shawn Marion -- Was great playing alongside Amare two years ago, so I think that's a non-issue.
2. Kevin Garnett -- Might be revitalized with James & Foye coming on board.
3. Elton Brand -- Just as solid as they come. The Clippers are loaded, but Brand clearly remains the focal point on both offense & defense.
4. Dirk Nowitzki -- Monster percentages, including over 90% on 7+ FTA per game. Would like to see those blocks creep back up to around 1.5.
5. Andrei Kirilenko -- Injury risk is the only thing that keeps from the elite fantasy level. 3.2 blocks per game is just sick.
6. Antawn Jamison -- Big scorer and rebounder, and excellent in 3s.
7. Dwight Howard -- I'm looking for Howard to make the jump this year, he's a superstar waiting to happen.
8. Chris Webber -- Another year, another drop in athleticism. Still helps everywhere but FG% and TOs, where he's terrible.
9. Lamar Odom -- Still waiting for that big year from Odom; personally, I think he'll always be a 15 PPG guy with Kobe around. Pencil him in for numbers similar to last season.
10. Rasheed Wallace -- Could see a rebounding spike with Ben out of the picture, but Sheed's never been an enthusiastic board crasher. Still awesome with the 3s & defensive numbers.
11. David West -- Good, solid player in a great situation. Excellent percentages, including .843 FT.
12. Zach Randolph -- I think Randolph can get it back, he's a talented low post scorer and rebounder. Needs to stay healthy & not incarcerated.
13. Al Harrington -- Might see a bit of a drop here playing with Jermaine O'Neal, since Harrington does his scoring in the post.
14. Troy Murphy -- Could see some better scoring & 3PT numbers in a Don Nelson offense.
15. Kenyon Martin -- Looks relatively healthy and could put up solid numbers if Denver gets their shit together.
16. Chalie Villanueva -- Excellent rookie year, he scores, hits the 3, and gets steals & blocks. Also should have increased minutes this year.
17. Vladimir Radmanovic -- He's been horrible in preseason, but I think he'll come around. The shots will be there, I think Rad can put up good PPG & 3PT numbers.
18. Danny Granger -- Like Villanueva, he's a great energy guy, he'll put up solid numbers in every category.
19. Tim Thomas -- 3PT specialist.
20. Drew Gooden -- Enigmatic player, but he's capable of scoring, and can always rebound. Only concern is that Varejao played great in the playoffs, may cause Gooden to lose minutes.
21. Antoine Walker -- 3PT specialist.
22. Donyell Marshall -- Just had a miserable start to last year, but Marshall's a proven 3PT guy, and has shown in the past he can rebound & put up defensive numbers.
23. Shareef Abdur-Rahim -- He's a good player, but there aren't enough shots for him in Sacramento.
24. Al Jefferson -- I like Al Jefferson a lot, I think he could be a good darkhorse pick. Bad real-life defender, but he gets blocks.
25. Udonis Haslem -- You know what you're getting with Haslem, 10 points, 8 boards, good percentages, and that's about it.

(note that Marvin Williams broke his hand and is out 2 months, putting a damper on what looked to be the start of a promising second season, and Stromile Swift is out for the year with an ACL tear)

Centers
1. Yao Ming -- By just a shade over Bosh; blocks put him over the top.
2. Chris Bosh -- I'm looking for a giant year out of Bosh. TJ Ford can help make that happen.
3. Tim Duncan -- Supposedly healthier than he was last year, he still puts up good numbers everywhere but FT%.
4. Amare Stoudemire -- Who the hell knows what this guy is going to do? I'm looking for a slow start to the year (with low minutes), then a return to 20 & 9 down the road.
5. Jermaine O'Neal -- Hurts you in TOs, helps everywhere else.
6. Brad Miller -- Great percentages, great assists (although they took a hit once Artest came to town), solid elsewhere except blocks.
7. Boris Diaw -- Another Suns question mark. I think Diaw's too good of an all-around player not to produce with Amare on the floor--but scoring could be an issue.
8. Marcus Camby -- Huge rebounds, huge steals, huge blocks, huge injury risk.
9. Shaquille O'Neal -- Injury/lethargy risk, but he'll get it going later in the season. And he can get 18/9/2 in his sleep.
10. Mehmet Okur -- Shoots the 3, scores, rebounds, bad in defensive stats.
11. Carlos Boozer -- Played fantastically down the stretch last year. Great post scoring game & rebounding, really hurts you in blocks.
12. Zydrunas Ilgauskas -- Z's production took a bit of a hit last year, but solid all around numbers and he still gets 1.7 blocks per.
13. Pau Gasol (out until at least January) -- Great, great player, but who knows when he'll be back...and then probably another month after that to work into shape.
14. Emeka Okafor -- Coming back from injury, Okafor rebounds and blocks shots like crazy, and I expect his dismal percentages to improve. Could be a good darkhorse pick.
15. Chris Kaman -- Solid numbers in the big 3 center categories--points, rebounds, blocks. K was a 13/10 guy after the break.
16. Ben Wallace -- He's still a great player, but I see his production taking a dive as he slowly loses athleticism. Plus the Bulls have a ton of good frontcourt players, and like to play them all.
17. Nenad Krstic -- Really played well in the playoffs last year, and averaged 15 & 8 with a block after the break. And he's only 23.
18. Samuel Dalembert -- Rebound/blocked shot specialist.
19. Andrew Bogut -- Solid rookie year for a big man, he rebounds, passes superbly, and averaged almost a block a game. (NOTE: Bogut is injured & out for 6-8 weeks).
20. Chris Wilcox -- Played great with Seattle, but all he really does is score and rebound.
21. Zaza Pachulia -- Solid all-around numbers, but he'll lose some time to Shelden Williams this year.
22. Eddy Curry -- An absolutely unstoppable low post scorer...but he somehow only gets 13.6 PPG. It's a PT issue, he just doesn't get big minutes, possibly because he's a lazy fatass.
23. Jamal Magloire -- Solid player who took a step back last year. He'll get minutes in Portland, so should at least rebound and block a shot a game.
24. Nazr Mohammed -- Should get 9-10 PPG, good rebounds and block a shot per game.
25. Robert Swift -- He's had surprisingly good production when he's gotten minutes, but he shares time with the other promising young big man in Petro. They also inexplicably drafted another center this year in Sene.
26. Channing Frye -- He can put the ball in the hole & rebound a little, but he has a playing time issue sharing time with Curry.


Others I like
Darko Milicic -- Great shotblocker at the very least.
Kendrick Perkins -- Will rebound and block shots if he gets minutes.

Specialists
Tyson Chandler (rebounds)
Raef LaFrentz (threes)
Joel Przybilla (blocks)
Alonzo Mourning (blocks)

Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Shooting Guards

Again, some players with SG eligibility are on either the PG or SF list. I've mostly ranked them according to their real-life positions, with the exceptions of centers--where every player with any kind of C eligibility is ranked because of the dearth of good fantasy players at that position.

TOP TIER

1. Dwyane Wade

You know it kills me to rank Wade ahead of Kobe, but I think he's just the better player--in fantasy and in real life. It's very, very close--Wade wins in FG%, assists and the defensive categories, Kobe in FGM, FT% and obviously points. I went with Wade at #1 based the fact that I think his three-point shooting is going to improve (from the virtually non-existent in the regular season, Wade started to pick it up in the playoffs and the World Championships). And while I think Kobe will eventually be back to 100% after offseason surgery, it's just enough of a worry to knock him to #2. You know he has killed/will kill himself to get back into game shape, but he's also somewhat injury prone and has a lot of mileage on him for his age.

2. Kobe Bryant

He dropped off in assists, but made up for that by bumping up his FG% to a respectable .450, and cutting his TOs down to 3.1--and, yes, by scoring 35 fucking points a game. I have a feeling that figure might drop a bit--Kobe scored only 28 a game in the playoffs last year (in far higher minutes), when he started figuring out that team basketball gives the Lakers the best chance of winning. Adding Radmanovic gives the Lakers another scoring option.

3. Ray Allen

Ridiculous shooting numbers--3.5 threes per, Allen led the league by a full three per game. He shot .454 from the floor, .412 from 3, and .903 from the line. He also gets about 4 rebounds and assists per game, 1.4 steals, and helps you in points and FGM. An elite fantasy player.

4. Michael Redd

Redd just keeps putting up great numbers year in and year out. Like Ray Allen, he has killer percentages (including .877 FT% on 7.1 attempts per game), gets you 8.5 FGM and 25 PPG, decent rebounds and assists, and tons of threes--but at 2.0 per game, he's a full 1.5 per game below Allen.

5. Vince Carter

Carter is always a candidate for a "coast" year--except this one, since he has an out in his contract after the season (with his contract up either way after next year). Combined with the fact that the Nets are a serious contender in the East, and I think you can count on Vinsanity being about where he was last year--solid in every category except FG%.

SECOND TIER

6. Joe Johnson

I love Joe Johnson. He's just a great all-around basketball player, there's nothing on the court he can't do well. Look for Speedy Claxton to cut into his assist numbers a bit, but I still see Johnson having the ball in his hands on most of the Hawks' possessions. Joe struggled a bit in the early months, but came on strong at the end--after the all-star break, he put up 21/4/7 with 1.9 threes per game and good percentages. The Hawks have a lot of good swing players, but you can absolutely count on Johnson getting his 40 minutes.

7. Josh Smith

Speaking of those other good swing players, look out for Josh Smith, he's getting ready to absolutely explode on the league. After getting a lot of pub last year at this time, he completely fizzled to begin the season. Then the Hawks figured out he has to be out there for 35 minutes a night, and after the all-star break averaged 15/8/4 with 1 steal and 3.1 blocks, and even chipped in 1.1 threes per game. He's going to hurt you in the percentages categories, but there aren't many people who make you instantly competitive in a category the way Smith does in blocks. I mean, there were only two *centers* last year who averaged 3 blocks per game--even with the crappy start, Smith averaged more blocks than Elton fucking Brand. And he's 20.

8. Jason Richardson

As predicted in this space last year (OK, the Victor's board), Richardson had an excellent all-around year, giving his owners strong numbers everywhere but in FT%--including a fantastic 2.4 threes per game on .384 shooting. He's just turned himself from pure athlete into a good, skilled basketball player. I really like this guy for the upcoming season, playing with a healthy (fingers crossed) Baron Davis in a Don Nelson offense. Richardson seems like he's been around forever, but he's only 25, he could actually get better.

THIRD TIER

9. Richard Hamilton

I always disliked Hamilton from a fantasy perspective (in real life, of course, he's a damned fine player). Good FGM, good FT%, decent FG%, *no* threes. But last year he took a nice step forward, increasing his scoring to 20 a game in Flip Saunders' more open system, taking his FG% into the stratosphere, his .491 the best on this list outside of Wade, and even hitting a decent 0.7 threes per game--and on .458 shooting from three. If he can keep those numbers up, and maybe bump his assists back up to where they were in 2004-2005, he remains on the cusp of the second tier.

10. Manu Ginobili

Ginobili's another good example of a player who's much better in real life than in fantasy--mostly because he plays low minutes to keep him fresh for the start of the "real season" in May. Wacky stat (or as ABC would retardedly call it, OuT oF WhAcK sTaT): Manu has still never averaged 30 minutes per game in his NBA career. But he still gives you solid numbers in every single category, including all three percentages.

11. Jason Terry

Has PG eligibility, but I ranked him here because I think Devin Harris is going to log big minutes this year alongside Terry, as he did in last year's playoffs. Terry isn't spectacular, but he helps in points, FGM, all three percentage categories, and especially 3PTM with over 2 per game.

12. Ricky Davis

Underrated because he's an asshole, Davis is a great athlete and a skilled player. With Randy Foye and Mike James coming on board and Rashad McCants due back in January, suddenly Minnesota has some quality perimeter depth, but I still see Davis getting his 35 minutes. His FG% stunk last year once he got to Minnesota, but he's been solid there in the past. He hurts you in TOs, but is good everywhere else. The Foye & James additions will probably cut into his assist numbers more than anything else.

13. Brandon Roy

Roy is a very good player in a perfect fantasy situation--a team with no other good perimeter players. He's going to get minutes, he's going to get shots, and I think he'll produce with them. He's been shooting the ball well in preseason, getting to the line, and getting rebounds and assists. I like Roy a lot, I think he's a good bet for rookie of the year.

FOURTH TIER

14. Raja Bell

Unfortunately, you don't get negative points in fantasy basketball for having a pussy flopper on your team, so I have the loathesome Bell here at #14. He gets 15 points a game, but he's mostly a fantasy specialist--he just kills the three (his 2.5 per game second on this list to only Ray Allen, and at a ridiculous .442 clip).

15. Andre Iguodala

I was praising Iguodala at this time last year, and he didn't really take that step forward that I thought he would. He's good, don't get me wrong--12/6/3, 0.7 threes, 1.7 steals, great percentages, but he's good enough and athletic enough to be better than that. And that team needs him to be better. He's a good upside guy; now that I think about it, maybe I'd take him over Bell if it came down to it in my draft. You can always find 3-pt specialists on the waiver wire--and Bell is *such* a goddamned pussy flopper.

16. Ben Gordon

Another specialist, Gordon gets you points, FGM, and threes (2.1 per game at .435). He hurts you in FG% and doesn't really do much else, but I don't see his scoring numbers going down--for all the talk about the Bulls, they don't have a lot of great perimeter scoring. Deng is a slasher, Hinrich is a system player. Nocioni might be the dark horse on that team, but even if Nocioni breaks out, I still see Gordon getting his minutes--which means Gordon *will* get his shots.

17. Steve Francis

I know, I know. Look, I'm not saying he's a sure thing, but as I said in my PG rankings about Marbury, I think Isiah is going to get these guys on the floor and let 'er rip--if only in an effort to make himself look like less of an idiot. And it's not like Franchise can't play. He was always overrated, but still a good, explosive player. I mean, two years ago he put up 21/6/7. Francis does turn 30 this year, but I think he's got something left in the tank.

18. Corey Maggette

Another tough one--a once very good player who suddenly has playing time issues. Look, Maggette can still play. In the playoffs, he averaged 15 & 7 in just 24 minutes and shot over 90% from the line on 5+ attempts per game. He can shoot, he can get to the line at will, he can rebound, and he can defend. I just don't know if he's going to get huge minutes--they brought in Tim Thomas to start at the SF position. But Maggette might still be able to squeak out 30 minutes behind Thomas & Mobley (also with Thomas spending some time spelling Brand at the 4). Mobley's a good player, but Maggette's better--and if Tim Thomas shoots the ball the way they think he can, Mobley becomes less crucial to the team.

19. Cuttino Mobley

That said, Mobley ain't chopped liver. He's still the only other shooter they have besides Thomas (and who knows what Tim Thomas we're about to see). Mobley's going to get his 15/4/3 with a three and steal per game.

FIFTH TIER

20. Stephen Jackson

Ugh. I want this guy on my fantasy team about as much as I'd want him on my real life team. Sure, he hits the three and scores 16 a game, but that's pretty much it, and he really hurts you with TOs and a terrible FG%. Like several others on this list, he's a PPG, FGM and 3PTM specialist. And he's always in danger of being suspended, incarcerated or murdered.

21. Bonzi Wells

Wells played great with the Kings last year, and is going to a seemingly good fit with Houston. He doesn't shoot the three, but can score, has a great FG%, and rebounds like crazy.

22. Marquis Daniels

One of my favorite players who haven't broken out yet, Daniels was a really underrated part of the Mavs' success last year. He's a silky smooth slasher who handles the ball like a PG, with a solid offensive package and lightning quick hands on D. Last year he averaged a solid 10/4/3 with a steal in just 28 minutes--as like the 11th option on the Mavericks. On a crap-ass team like Indiana, he should have a much better chance of putting up good numbers. He doesn't shoot the three, but he does everything else well.

23. Eddie Jones

Pretty much a specialist at this stage of his career, he averaged 1.8 threes and 1.8 steals--but he still gives you a decent 12/4/3 every night, on a team where there's little danger of him suddenly losing minutes. The Grizz are pretty good, but they don't have a ton of good guards.

24. Kevin Martin

Martin had a fine rookie year for the Kings; in 41 starts, he averaged 14/5/2 with 1.3 threes, and shot .511 from the floor and .423 from three. Very nice. Artest will be there for the entire year this season and they picked up the solid John Salmons from Philly, but they also lost Bonzi Wells, so if he plays well, the minutes will be there.

THE REST

25. Jamal Crawford

If I'm right and Marbury & Francis get a lot of playing time, it might hurt Crawford's specialist-type numbers, as Nate Robinson is in the mix as well. But if Isiah plays a lot of 3-guard, uptempo offense, there might be enough minutes & shots to go around. If Crawford gets minutes, look for him to get threes, assists, a great FT%, and points, and hurt you in FG% and TOs.

26. JR Smith

Smith is an interesting player. He's 6'6, super athletic, and can really shoot the ball--and got ran out of New Orleans. Now he's the starting SG on a playoff team, and the only real deep threat on the entire team. He'll kill you in FG%, but I expect him to get a ton of threes (with a solid %). With starter-type minutes, he might be able to contribute in other categories, but until I see it, I'm looking at him as a specialist.

27. Flip Murray (Pistons are looking to use their bench more, and Murray knows how to put the ball in the hole)

28. DeShawn Stevenson (on the high-flying Wizards, Stevenson might be in line for a nice year)

Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Point Guards

One note--typically, I'd put anyone with PG eligibility in the PG category because there are almost always more good SGs than PGs. But as I was putting together the ranking this year, I noticed that didn't seem to be the case for this upcoming season. So I ended up putting most real-life SGs in the SG category. So please note that this list isn't entirely inclusive of all Yahoo-eligible PGs.

The Elites

1. Gilbert Arenas

After the all-star break last year, he averaged 31.1 points with 2.9 threes per game on .474 shooting from the floor and .408 from three. That's ridiculous. He also averaged 3.5 boards, 6.1 assists, 2.0 steals, and shot .820 on 10 FT attempts per game (obviously the more FTA a good FT shooter gets, the more he helps you in that category in fantasy). The only category he hurts you in is turnovers, but that's true for most of the elite players who have the ball in their hands all the time.

2. Allen Iverson

The iron man had perhaps his finest fantasy season, averaging 33 & 7.4 with 1.9 steals, bumping up his FG % to a very respectable .447, and shooting .814 on 11.5 FTA. I keep expecting to see that big dropoff from a 30+ year old player, especially one who's taken as much punishment as Iverson, but he keeps on going strong.

3. Steve Nash

Nash has talked a lot this year about playing far fewer minutes. Keep in mind that the team signed Marcus Banks when they already had the fantastic Leandro Barbosa backing up Nash--that tells me something. Still, in the second half last year, playing only 33 minutes per game (down from 37 before the break), Nash averaged 18-4-9 with 2.0 threes per game, and shot a sick .552 from the floor and .462 from three.

4. Chris Paul

Paul over Billups was a tough choice, I could've gone either way there. Paul had huge numbers for a rookie PG, with 16-5-8 with 2.2 steals and only 2.4 TOs, and shot a respectable .430 from the floor. The big negative in his game is his outside shooting--I expect some improvement, but I still don't think he's going to give you much from three. I watched him do some very nice things in the World Championships, but he still looked hesitant shooting the ball from outside.

5. Chauncey Billups

Billups really bumped up his scoring and especially assist numbers last year under Flip Saunders, from 16.5-6 to 18.5-8.6, which thrust him into the elite tier of fantasy PGs. He hurts you in FG% (.418 last year after a solid .443 the year before) and--surprisingly for a very good defensive player--doesn't get many steals. But he does knock down 2.3 threes a game at a .400+ percentage, which makes him the best PG in that category outside of Arenas.

Tier Two, Solid & Steady

6. Mike Bibby

He's injured and out for the first two weeks of the season, but I've read that he's expected to be back to 100% soon after that. Bibby helps you in points (21.1), threes (2.3 per game/.386), FTs (.849 on 5 attempts per game), and shoots a solid % from the field at .432 and doesn't turn the ball over a lot. He's not a great assist man (5.4 per game last year after 6.8 the year before) and doesn't get you a ton of steals.

7. Jason Kidd

Kidd's scoring has fallen off 4 straight years, down to 13.3 per game in 2005-2006. He still gets a ton of rebounds (7.3), assists (8.4) and steals (1.9), shoots the three well (1.7 per game at .352), and doesn't turn the ball over a lot. Kidd will turn 34 during the season, and they brought in Marcus Williams (who's hurt and will miss the start of the season) to spell him, but I still expect him to average 35+ minutes per game and put up similar numbers to last year. The Nets are a contender in the East, I don't think they're ready to start the Marcus Williams Era just yet.

8. Kirk Hinrich

Two white guys in the top ten! (2.5 if you count Kidd). Hinrich really played well down the stretch last year, averaging 18-4-6 after the break and shooting a solid .439 after .405 before the break. He's kind of a poor man's Billups: he helps in points, assists, turnovers, FT% and threes--but not as much as Bilups, and hurts in FG% and steals.

9. Jameer Nelson

I've been singing this guy's praises for the last two years, and he finally gets to start out the season as the no-bullshit #1 guy at the point. In 33 starts last year, Nelson averaged 16-3-6 with 1.2 threes per game, and shot an excellent .478 from the floor, .438 from three, and .800 from the line. A good player on an exciting, up-and-coming team.

Tier Three, Upside Guys

10. Baron Davis

I had a hard time picking him over Ray Felton because of his injury problems, but if he can stay healthy, Davis could have a giant year in a Don Nelson offense. Davis--as always--killed fantasy owners in the percentage categories last year, but he also put up 18-4-9 with 1.9 threes and big steals & low turnovers. He's a huge gamble, granted, but he'll pay off if he can somehow get in 65-70+ games.

11. Raymond Felton

1/3 of the fantastic rookie PG class of 2005 with Chris Paul & Derron Williams, Felton played out of his mind when they finally just put him out there for 35 minutes and let him do his thing. After the all-star break, Felton averaged 16.7 & 7.6, made 2.0 threes per game and had just 2.6 TOs per. Those are just excellent, excellent rookie PG numbers. Charlotte has added Adam Morrison, and gotten back Okafor & Sean May, so I expect Felton to keep on coming as a rising fantasy basketball star.

Tier Four

12. Mike James

What's going to happen with Mike James in Minnesota? Tough question. He'll share the ball with Ricky Davis and rookie Randy Foye (and Rashad McCants when he gets back healthy in early 2007), but James is the only real shooter out of that crew. I expect his points and assist numbers to take a slight hit, but still remain good, and James to continue to put up excellent 3PT numbers and shooting percentages in all three categories.

13. Tony Parker

Parker is a great, great real life player, but he's very hit and miss in fantasy. He scores and is the most valuable FG% guy in the league, but he hurts you in threes, FT%, assists, turnovers and steals. Just as some guys are 3PT specialists for fantasy purposes, look at Parker as a PTS, FGM & FG% specialist.

14. Stephon Marbury

Yes, I expect Starbury to be back. Of all the question marks that come with the Knicks this season, the one thing I do think will happen is that Isiah will give his star players--the ones he ill-advisedly traded for--a chance to shine. I think Isiah's going to put Marbury and Francis out there for 35 minutes, I think they're going to run an uptempo offense (a blessed departure from the horrible square-peg/round-hole system of Larry Brown), and I think these guys are going up put up decent numbers. I'll put Marbury at 18-8 with a very good FG%.

15. Andre Miller

I had a hard time ranking Miller and the two Williamses (Mo & Derron), but ended up going with old reliable at #15. Miller doesn't give you any threes, but he's solid-to-good in every other category. I also expect Denver to turn things around this year, with Miller possibly reaping the benefit of playing with a more energized team.

16. Mo Williams

I like Mo Williams. A lot. When he gets minutes, he produces, and with TJ Ford gone, he's going to get minutes. Before the all-star break (around when he got hurt), Mo averaged 14.7-2.7-4.2 in under 30 minutes a game, shooting an excellent .450 from the floor, .850 from the line, and .407 from three (making 1.5 threes per game). Solid numbers, and I expect an increase from those.

17. Derron Williams

I'm surprised I have him this low, because I like his game quite a bit and think he's gearing up for a big second season, but there's nobody ahead of him I'd take him over. Strong PGs this year in fantasy basketball. Anyway, Williams struggled a bit to start his rookie season, but came on strong in the final two months, averaging 13.2-5.5 (against only 1.6 TOs), and shooting an excellent .472 from the floor and an unbelievable .526 from three, with 1.7 makes per game.

18. Luke Ridnour

Call me a non-believer when it comes to Luke Ridnour. I literally did like a cartoon double take when I saw him in the mix for the World Championship/Olympics team. I've heard him called the poor man's Steve Nash--but he can't shoot! Ridnour shot a paltry .289 from three last year with only 0.5 makes per game, just horrible numbers. Granted, this was after posting a solid .379 in 2004-2005, but still with fewer than 1 make per game. Ridnour is an outstanding FT shooter (with low attempts, however), and averaged a very solid 7 assists to just 2.1 turnovers. He also got 1.6 steals per game, so it's not like the guy is just fantasy wasteland. But his shooting % and lack of threes hurts you, he scored only 11 per game, and Earl Watson ate into his minutes when he got to Seattle. In fact, with Watson's 11.5-3.0-5.4 and 1.8 threes (on .420 3PT FG%), I'm not sure I wouldn't rather have him over Ridnour--in fantasy and real life. Prove me wrong, Luke, prove me wrong.

Tier Five

19. Shaun Livingston

A lot of people are going to think this is too high, and it might be a year early--but I'm telling you right now, Shaun Livingston is an unbelievable basketball player. For the long run, the only people on this list I'd take over Livingston are Arenas and Paul--and it's closer than you think. It'll probably be another year or two before Livingston breaks out, but the fact that he played the key fourth quarter minutes in the playoffs last year over Cassell speaks volumes to me. I think Cassell will start out getting the big minutes and then just slowly give up more and more time to Livingston as the year progresses. The Clippers love Livingston and have said flat out that they want Livingston to be the starting PG, Cassell be damned. He can't hit the three *at all*, but Livingston is a gifted athlete, an outstanding passer, a great on-ball defender, and his midrange shooting is coming along.

20. Randy Foye

I'm split on this guy. I like his game a lot, and he blew up at Summer League, but he's been struggling a bit in preseason. I think he'll be like Felton and Derron Williams last year, a little rough in the beginning, with inconsistent play and playing time, but he'll get it together by the end of the year. He's unstoppable going to the basket, a nice compliment to Mike James, who's more of a shooter, and he's a great, great athlete. He's been called a poor man's Dwyane Wade, and that might not be considered quite so absurd by the end of the year.

21. TJ Ford

The guy just can't score, but he does everything else really well. On a re-energized Toronto, I look to see him filling up the stat sheet.

22. Rafer Alston

Struggled a bit in his first year in Houston, but I don't see Luther Head keeping him from playing 35 minutes a game. He can still shoot the three, drive, rebound, pass, and get steals.

23. Delonte West

I've heard good things about him in preseason and bad things. The Celtics suddenly have two quality PGs in Sebastian Telfair and Rajon Rondo, but West looks to get solid minutes at PG, SG & SF. And when he gets minutes, he produces in every area. Great percentages, hits the three, rebounds, assists, steals, even blocks. A solid all-around player.

24. Rajon Rondo

If he weren't splitting time with Telfair, I'd have him higher--I like Rondo a lot. He's unstoppable going to the basket, he's a good passer, and he's even shot the ball fairly well in preseason, a question mark going in. I think he'll eventually beat out Telfair, or at least get plenty of minutes in backing up and even playing alongside Telfair, but like with Foye, it might take some time.

25. Leandro Barbosa

Barbosa is one of my 5 favorite players in the league to watch. He's the quickest guy in the NBA, period. When he lowers his head and goes to blow by someone, forget about it, it's over, you just can't guard him. Couple that with his excellent--if fucked up looking--3 point shooting, and you have an offensive force. I'd love for Barbosa to go to a crappy team where he could put up 20 a game--even without Nash's brilliance helping him out, he'd do it in his sleep.

Best of the rest

26. Speedy Claxton (good player, good situation for him)
27. Jason Williams (good 3s and percentages)
28. Devin Harris (excellent player who really came on in the playoffs)
29. Sam Cassell (as mentioned above, I think he's in for a major PT reduction)
30. Sebastian Telfair (not a great fantasy player so far, but he's young and could really improve quickly)

Others

Smush Parker (3 pt & steals specialist)
Monta Ellis (maybe a year away, but I like this guy's game a lot)
Jarrett Jack (he'll get the minutes, just don't know if he has the game)
Rashad McCants (out with injury until January, and then who know who long until he's back to 100%? But he had decent numbers when he finally started getting minutes last year, including shooting the ball, which was a question coming in for him).

More Boxscores

We're getting to the time in preseason where scrubs are getting the large majority of the playing time, but hey, we can at least get some info on the younger guys.

Interesting numbers in the Warriors-Clippers game tonight.

Monta Ellis--as you know, a darkhorse pick of mine--went for 15 & 10 assists. This guy can really play, I'm tellin' ya.

DuJuan Wagner, once thought to be a rising star and now fighting for his NBA life, came up with 23 points. He's a good example of a guy who can't shoot & relies almost entirely on his ability to get to the basket--but, while quick, doesn't have the high end "Wade-level" quickness it takes if that's your entire game. I think he would've really been exposed if he'd gone to college---good thing for him he made the jump & banked a few million dollars before people figured out he's just nothing special. He's the flipside of the Leon Smith case that you never hear about, the guy who made millions of dollars more than he otherwise would've if he'd played in college.

Anthony Roberson continues his strong preseason play with 15 in 23 minutes on 7-12 shooting.

Rookie Patrick O'Bryant had 6 points in 15 minutes. I'm up in the air on him. He's the kind of guy who often fails in the NBA, but a friend of mine who I respect a lot says he can play. We'll see. At a minimum, I can pretty much guarantee it'll take a few years, so don't go jumping on him in your fantasy draft.

Yaroslav Korolev--a 19 year old former first rounder in his second year with the Clippers (after getting virtually no playing time last year), came up with 5 threes in 8 attempts & scored 25 points. Again, I wouldn't expect him to do much this year on a deep & talented Clippers team, especially with Tim Thomas playing that shooting combo forward role, but they might have found themselves a 6'9 shooter for the long run.

Paul Davis made a showing. Not a good showing, but a showing. He did have 7 boards and 4 assists in just 19 minutes, but pulled an oh-fer in the scoring column--which is surprising, since the only thing I thought he could do on an NBA level is score. Well, we'll see. I still think he can make a 5+ year career for himself in the NBA just based on his offensive skills. Tough team for him to get on, with Brand & Kaman pulling down 35 minutes each, and solid backups in Rebraca, Tim Thomas, and the underrated James Singleton and Aaron Williams. But Davis will stick, I think.

Daniel Horton got a DNP-Coach's Decision, which really doesn't bode well for him. Meanwhile this Robert Hite guy from Miami got 28 minutes and shot the lights out with 10-14 shooting and 4-6 threes. If I have to put odds on Horton sticking, I'd say...20%.

Rudy Gay keeps getting minutes, and scoring. 14 tonight, including a couple threes. I don't know, maybe I'm starting to come around on him. Preseason means very little--except for rookies. Gay's played well, probably better than any rookie other than Rajon Rondo.

Randy Foye continues to struggle in Minnesota, but I'm still keeping the faith.

Tyrus Thomas with 10 pts, 3 rebs, 1 stl & 2 blks in 18 minutes--and also 6 fouls. He's a hyper, hyper player. It's a gift and a curse.

Deron Williams with 19-4-9...I like him a lot, I think he's getting ready to break out. As noted before, he played really well down the stretch last year. I think that PG class of Paul, Felton & Williams is going to turn out to be extremely strong.

Watch out for Kevin Martin on Sacramento, the guy can really play. He had 20 in 21 minutes tonight. In 41 starts last year, half a season, he averaged 13.7-4.7-1.8 on ridiculous .511 shooting from the field and .423 from three (on 3.0 attempts per game). Excellent, excellent rookie numbers. Not sure if he can build too much on them with Bibby, Artest, Miller, and Abdur-Rahim sucking up offensive stats, and the underrated John Salmons playing a similar role, but he's too good to take a step backward.

Brandon Roy with a cool 19 points, including 11-12 from the free throw line. Roy & Foye are in the Dwyane Wade school, guys who can handle the ball like PGs and get to the line any time they want. He's a good one.

Cedric Simmons had 9 & 7 with 2 blocks, continuing his strong preseason play. I like him over Hilton Armstrong among the the Hornets rookie big men, it just seems like Simmons is a better complement to Tyson Chandler, who's basically a clone of Armstrong.

Jordan Farmar also continued his strong play with 12-2-3 in 20 minutes, including 2-3 from three--my biggest concern coming into the season was whether he could hit the NBA three. With Kobe & Odom, he'll get his open threes, just like Smush does. He needs to knock them down at a 35%+ clip.

Maurice Evans, the ex-Piston, went wild for 27 points, probably beating his career best for any 2 games combined. I like this guy quite a bit. Not a superstar, but he really defends, he's athletic, and he has some offensive game. I actually would have liked to have seen the Pistons get more use out of him than they did--whenever I watched them, which was quite a bit, he was doing something positive during his minutes of PT.

Quick boxscore check

20 & 6 in 27 minutes for Nazr Mohammed tonight, very nice. Granted it was against Mark Blount, the most lethargic defender this side of Mo Taylor, but still--when did Ben Wallace ever score 20 points against a shitty defender? Of course Mohammed will pale in comparison in rebounding and defense, but he just *has* to be something of an offensive threat to help offset that, and tonight is a great sign.

Maxiell also continues to play really well--14 points in 18 minutes, with another *10* free throws! The guy is just playing out of his mind, I'm definitely hoping to see him get 10-15 productive minutes per game once the season starts.

A Nene sighting in Denver--9-3-3 in 16 minutes, a solid start. Kenyon Martin also had a nice game, 20-8 in 22 minutes. Good to see those guys back healthy. If they can stay that way, Denver could be looking at a big season. They were red hot to finish up 2004-2005, and just got hit with the injury bug last year. But Carmelo was as good as anyone in the league to close out 2006, he was just an unstoppable scoring machine...after the break last year, he averaged 27.6 ppg on ridiculous .516 shooting. He still doesn't do much else for you from a fantasy perspective, but he's a damned good real-life player.

With Melo, Andre Miller, and three good big men in Camby, Nene and Martin, they have a nice core. The big thing with them is always shooting, and it looks like JR Smith is going to get the starting SG job. He's something of a head case, but he did shoot .371 on 2.6 attempts per game from three last year, and he's only 20. If he can hit consistently from outside, they're a tough matchup.

Shannon Brown went for a solid 9-2-5 in 24 minutes for the Cavs, but on 3-9 shooting.

Marcus Williams is out with a sprained wrist in New Jersey, and it looks like he'll definitely miss the rest of preseason, and possibly the start of the season. Too bad, since he was playing very well.

This Steve Novak cat on Houston is someone to keep an eye on. He's a rookie, a 6'10 white goofball from Marquette who can shoot the hell out of the ball. He went for 17 and 5 in 24 minutes with *5* three pointers on 6 attempts. He could be the next Kyle Korver.

All-Rookie Team (per withnail's request)

I'm not a huge fan of this rookie class. The only immediate impact players I can see are Brandon Roy in Portland and Randy Foye in Minnesota--both of whom *better* be impact players, because they'll be given free reign on those shitty teams.

I mean, I'm sure there will be other good players in this class, it's just that nobody jumps out at me at this point.

Bargnani can *really* shoot the ball. And hey, if you're 7 foot and can really shoot, you're a player to watch. I guarantee Toronto isn't regretting that pick (like Detroit was with Milicic about thirty seconds after he got into camp--and they saw Bosh, Anthony & Wade play their first five minutes in preseason). Still, no Euro has come in as a 20-year-old and set the league on fire--I'm sure it'll take him a few years.

Morrison will definitely be able to score, but if you can't do much else--and are likely a major defensive liability--you better be able to score *a lot*. That remains to be seen. Still, I'd put him right there with Foye & Roy in the ROY race because I don't see many other rookies averaging in double figures.

I also like Rajon Rondo a lot, he's got skills that translate very well to the NBA--namely, he can get to the basket at will. I see him either splitting time pretty close to 50/50 with Telfair, beating him out cleanly for the starting job, or Boston playing them 10 minutes or so on the floor at the same time--one way or another, he'll get 25-35 minutes a game. I also think Marcus Williams will be productive, but I prefer Rondo in both the short & long run.

The big men don't wow me, at least in the short run, but I'll bet at least one of Aldridge, Shelden Williams, and Tyrus Thomas come out of the gate strongly. Thomas is my favorite of the three, but with him stuck in a big man logjam in Chicago, I don't see him exploding on the scene right away. Aldridge will miss the entire preseason and possibly the start of this season with a shoulder injury, so that'll set him back a while. Plus Portland actually has some decent big men with Zach Randolph, Joel Przybilla, Raef Lafrentz, and Jamaal Magloire.

So that leaves Shelden Williams as the guy out of those three most likely to make a big impact this season. I don't see Zaza Pachulia and Lorenzen Wright keeping Williams from playing 25 minutes a game, and he's been productive (but up and down, as young big men always are) in preseason so far--averaging 9 & 7 in about 25 minutes a game. The key for him is blocking shots--if he can be a defensive force, he *will* get big minutes on that team. Scoring isn't the problem for the Hawks.

All Rookie Team:
Rajon Rondo
Randy Foye
Brandon Roy
Adam Morrison
Shelden Williams

(Kind of a cop out without a true PF, I know, but the rookie classes are almost always dominated by perimeter players, who are more able to come in and play than big men. If I need a PF, I'll go with Cedric Simmons).

Dark horse:
Shannon Brown -- a good fit for the Cavs, who need some bench scoring & athleticism, and he supposedly looked great in summer league. I personally have always liked the guy, and was praying the Lakers would get him.

Bigger dark horse:
Craig Smith -- also a good fit with Minnesota, who have no good big men other than Garnett; Garnett has raved about him, but as I said about Foye, that could just be KG's desperation speaking; also undersized PFs with big time college production have a good record of success in the NBA. In preseason, he's averaging a solid 9 & 7 in just 15 minutes a game.

Speaking of rookies, I see Daniel Horton got 22 minutes with the Heat last night, but didn't do much with it--4 assists to 1 turnover is very solid, but 2-8 shooting won't get it done. I wonder how his D was, it's tough to tell from a boxscore. Jennero Pargo--the Hornets' scrub PG--went for 22 in 24 minutes on 9-13 shooting, which doesn't bode well, but who knows if Horton was matched up on him. As I said going into camp, whoever (out of the many scrub guards Miami has on their roster) shoots the ball and defends the best will get that job.

Also, I see that Lavell Blanchard was in Toronto's camp, but got cut after getting just a few minutes in preseason. Too bad, I've always rooted for the guy. Maybe he wasn't the leader we wanted/needed him to be, but he was a good player and a class act during a period where we didn't have a whole lot of either of those.

PRESEASON THOUGHTS

DETROIT

Some ups, some downs in the preseason for Detroit so far. Flip Murray has looked great in the two preseason games he was in, averaging 17 & 5 in 30 minutes. An excellent pickup for Detroit, they really struggled not having a guard to bring off the bench to kickstart the offense during those long, long stretches when everyone looks like shit--and at only $2M per season.

Mohammed has been pretty up and down, just like his entire career. He started out with a nice 16 & 8 with 2 blocks, then followed that up with some underwhelming performances. He'll be OK, he'll be a big body, an offensive upgrade from Ben Wallace (he better be), and he'll block some shots, but I'm concerned about his rebounding. The Pistons were already a mediocre rebounding team with Wallace, and Mohammed can range from crappy-to-pretty good on the boards. The beauty is that, with a one-year deal, he's playing for a contract, so I don't expect effort to be an issue.

In their continuing quest to develop some kind of bench, Delfino has been playing a lot, with his usual mixed results. In two games he shot well and put up 13 & 15 points, the other two he shot 4-17. I still wouldn't count on him as a reliable bench scorer.

The good news is that Jason Maxiell has been playing great, with double figures in all four games and solid rebounding. He's also been to the line an unbelievable 44 times, showing that he's playing extremely aggressively. Like Murray, he's not going to be a superstar, but the Pistons don't need him to be--just someone they can throw out there for 15-20 minutes a game and have him hold his own. Of course that person could have been Darko Milicic, but Dumars threw him away in a stupid panic move that compounded the damage this situation had already done to the franchise. One black mark in an otherwise nearly flawless career.

Speaking of Darko, he's continuing his good play from last year in the preseason, with double figures in each game and 6 rebounds per in limited minutes. I also thought he played very well in the World Championships.

INDIANA

I wasn't sure how how Al Harrington would fit in with this team. He's a good player and everything, but doesn't Danny Granger make him redundant? In 17 games as a starter last year, Granger averaged 10.3-6.7-1.6, a steal and a block per game, and shot .474 from the floor and .357 from three (on almost 2 attempts per game). Those are very solid rookie numbers, and he's the future of this franchise.

But it looks like they're going to start both of them with O'Neal at center, or at least play that way for large stretches of the game. Makes sense--even though you're smaller, it's probably a defensive upgrade given that Jeff Foster sucks. Harrington led the team in scoring in their first two preseason games before getting hurt, getting 20+ in each. I still like Granger much better as a fantasy player--even when Harrington was the man, he gave you decent scoring, a little rebounding, and not much else. Those guys are a dime a dozen in fantasy league.

PHOENIX/LAKERS

Amare played an energy-filled 31 minutes against the Lakers, putting up 15-9 with 5 steals (fucking Kwame Brown (just kidding, he didn't even play)) and 2 blocks. That's encouraging for those of us with him in our keeper fantasy leagues. Maybe he wasn't *quite* as explosive as usual, but he did get a pass directly under the basket and, in traffic, went straight up and threw down a pretty sweet jam. Even on healthy knees, no more than 10% of the league's big men can do that from a standing start.

Speaking of the Lakers, Vladimir Radmanovic has really, really sucked so far. I suppose a shooter just has to find his stroke, but he's shot 4-20 and 1-7 from three in the Lakers first three preseason games. He'll come around, but I don't think he'll be a franchise saver. Probably the 12-5 guy with bad FG%/good 3-pt shooting that he's always been. Still, that's a healthy improvement over Devean George.

ROOKIES

Marcus Williams has been playing well for the Nets. He's averaged 15-3-8 through the first three preseason games. His shooting hasn't been great, but those are still excellent numbers. He's obviously behind Kidd, and they signed Eddie House (who's out indefinitely after arthroscopic knee surgery), but I'd still expect him to get decent playing time off the bench. I mean, Jacques Vaughn got 15 minutes a game on this team last year.

Also on the Nets, Josh Boone is out 4-6 months with a shoulder injury, not that you gave a shit about him anyway.

Jordan Farmar has looked good for the Lakers, getting 9&2 and 10&5 in his first two preseason games. He's also active on D, he'll get some steals. I'm still not sure he can shoot the NBA three, but he's a nice draft pick for where they got him, I could see him turning into a decent starter down the road.

Daniel Horton is on the Miami roster, but I don't believe he's played yet, which doesn't bode well. Meanwhile, fellow last-spot-on-the-bench-contender Chris Quinn from ND got 30 minutes--although he didn't do much with it.

Rudy Gay had 21 points in a game against the Pistons. Maybe he will get some shots, but I just don't see him having the scoring consistency or the ability in any other part of the game to make him a worthwhile fantasy player. Although he did have 3 steals and 3 blocks in that game...I guess I'll keep an eye on him.

Anthony Roberson unbelievably scored 28 in a game, but the real story in Golden State is Monta Ellis, who showed major flashes of potential last year and who they like a lot. In three late starts, he averaged 17-5-4. He had 17-3-2 in 24 minutes in GS's only preseason game. He still might not get huge minutes this year--he's only 20--but he's a player to keep an eye on down the road.

Adam Morrison's getting all the press in Charlotte, but Sean May has played really well so far in preseason, averaging 13-6 in about 24 minutes a game. He's still stuck behind Okafor and Brezec, but he'll get decent minutes as the only decent big man off the bench. I really liked his game coming into the league, I think he'll have a solid year this season--in real life, not fantasy b-ball, where he's pretty limited.

Renaldo Balkman had a nice 11-7 effort in only 15 minutes. I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be, um, not shitty. Isiah knew he was betting his entire job on this kid, and as retarded as Isiah is, the one area in which he's been competent is drafting.

Randy Foye had 13 points in 21 minutes in his first good performance of the preseason (after getting more raves than anyone in summer league). I also saw an interview with Kevin Garnett where he was practically weeping at how much potential Foye has, but that might be Garnett's desperation speaking.

RANDOM FANTASY BASKETBALL THOUGHTS

CENTERS

I'd take Bosh by a hair over Yao as the #1 center. Yao had ridiculous numbers in the second half last year, but he just doesn't mesh well with McGrady (a trait he shares with "everyone else"). I mean, he'll still be at 20-10 with 1.5 blocks, which along with his excellent percentages make him a great fantasy center, but I still like Bosh better. Mike James is a solid player, but TJ Ford is a much better distributor and I think Bosh will be the beneficiary there. I'd look for him to be around 24-10-3-50%-80%.

I don't know where in the draft I'm going to look for Diaw. On the one hand, he's such a skilled & versatile player that it seems like he can be productive with Amare on the floor. On the other, a lot of his value comes from taking big men off the dribble and going to the rim or passing. If Amare & Marion are on the floor, that means Diaw is being defended by a small forward. Diaw struggled in that one game Amare played and scored 20 points, but who knows what one game means. Also I wonder if he'll lose his C eligibility if Amare is healthy and plays 30 minutes a game. Seems like they don't take away eligibility all that often--some jagoff in my Yahoo FFL league has Marques fucking Colston at *tight end*.

If Dwight Howard has center eligibility, I'd put him right there behind Bosh & Yao in the Duncan/O'Neal tier. He was just a beast in the Olympics--I can't believe how fucking huge he is. I can see him at 18-13 with 1.5 blocks and a monster FG%.

RANDOM STUFF

I think Joe Johnson is pretty much going to do what he did last year, maybe assists down a bit with Speedy Claxton on board, but he'll still have the ball in his hands most of the time. He's just a really, really good player, I think he'll be around 20-4-5 with good percentages.

As for Josh Smith, I'm not too worried he'll regress like he did at the beginning of last season, they seem to finally have figured out you just have to throw him out there for 35 minutes a night and let him do his thing.

I wonder what Marvin Williams will do--after the all-star break, he averaged a respectable 11 and 5 in 28 minutes and shot .470. But even if he gets that to 14 and 7, he doesn't really do much else than sorta score and sorta rebound--that's not real valuable in fantasy basketball. But he could obviously get *way* better in a short time.

I think Stojakovic is going to be exactly as good as you'd expect him to be playing alongside Chris Paul. He just couldn't have found a better situation.

As for Paul, I'm going to go against the grain here and predict that he doesn't quite make the jump into the fantasy elite this year. I watched him in the Olympics and was pretty disappointed by his ability to finish inside. I mean, obviously he's a *good* finisher, but he's not on the level with Iverson/Wade--or even Nash, with all his crazy moves and shots in the lane. And his outside shooting is still below average, so I don't see his FG% climbing much. On the other hand, he should be good for like 18-4-9-2.5 with low turnovers, so it's not like he's chopped liver as a fantasy player. I just think he'll be a better real life player than fantasy player this year, with the big jump to fantasy superstardom coming later.

Like everyone else, I think Ray Felton is poised for a breakout. After the all-star break last year, he was damn near as good as Paul (on a fantasy level)--16.7-3.4-7.6 with 2 threes & only 2.6 TOs per game. Those are really great numbers for a rookie PG. His FG% sucked at .412, but he hit .387 from three and .784 from the line, so it's not like he can't shoot the ball. Felton's the future, no way is Brevin Knight going to steal big minutes from him. And with Morrison joining the team and Okafor & May back healthy, he also has more scoring options than last year.

Guys playing for contracts: Pierce, Billups, Bibby, Nowitzki, Carter, Lewis, Jamison, G. Wallace. Out of those, the only ones I think would be really affected by a contract year are Vince and Rashard Lewis, two guys who can tend towards playing soft. I'd have no qualms about taking Vince in the second round this year, and we might see a bump in Lewis' already solid numbers, especially if he plays some goddamn defense for once.

THE ROOKIES

I like Brandon Roy a lot, and he's in a position where he could instantly be the main perimeter option on that team (although I've heard good things about Martell Webster). Same with Foye--good player, good situation with McCants out until at least January. I think they'll both put up solid numbers, with Roy maybe having a slight edge.

Rondo had 11-5-8 with 4 steals in 22 minutes in Boston's first preseason game, and then followed that up with 29-4-5 with 3 steals. I usually think preseason means little, but that's impressive. I think he'll end up getting the big minutes there over Telfair. He's like a poor man's Chris Paul--he can't shoot, but he can go to the basket at will and that's what NBA basketball is all about.

I don't love Rudy Gay's game, and I don't like his situation in Memphis. He has 12-minutes-per-game written all over him. Same with Tyrus Thomas. I love his game, but I don't see him getting huge minutes this year with the logjam Chicago has at forward.

Adam Morrison is a very good player in a great situation, but I don't think he can do anything on the NBA level other than score. And I don't know if he's going to hit a ton of threes, that's the key for his fantasy value. He can be at 15-4-2 & .465, but the difference between him making 1.7 threes and 0.7 threes determines whether he's a solid fantasy player or not. In Charlotte's first preseason game, he went 2-2 with 19 points in 24 minutes, so that bodes well. He also had 1 rebound and 0 assists, which doesn't.

I don't love any of the big men--I think it'll take Bargnani, Aldridge and Shelden Williams a year or two before they're productive. Bargnani shot 2-2 from three in the first game, but followed that up with 0-5. Still, looks like he's going to be a really interesting player, I'm definitely going to keep my eye on him.