WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS

So what's going on around the league?

--The Celtics are still looking damn good. They've dropped 2 of their last 5--but there's no shame in losing @ Orlando and @ Cleveland (with Lebron absolutely going off).

--Speaking of Lebron, you gotta check out what he's doing so far through the season's first 15 games, this is unbelievable:

31.7 PPG
8.0 RPG
8.5 APG
2.1 SPG
1.6 BPG

Those numbers are *sick*. In his last 7, he's averaging--get this--37.6/9.3/10.0. Those are Oscar Robertson numbers! Better! The Cavs started out 4-4 and were going nowhere fast, but with Lebron loading up the franchise on his back, they're 5-2 since with wins over Utah, Toronto and Boston, and back to looking like a team no one's going to want to meet up with in the playoffs. BTW, it's hard to even fathom this, but LBJ is still only 22, he won't turn 23 for another month. How much better can he get?

--How about those Washington Wizards? After a soul-crushing injury to Gilbert Arenas, who'll be out a reported 3 months, the team reeled off 4 wins in 6 games, including a shocking double digit win over Dallas. I don't think they can keep it up, but I want to call out a couple guys who are really stepping it up for this team:

Caron Butler was on the verge of stardom last year, and has solidly improved--so you do the math. To think the fucking Lakers traded this fucking guy for Kwame fucking Brown makes me fucking...OK, take a breath, what's done is done. For the season, Butler is averaging 23/7/3 and 2.2 steals, and is shooting a ridiculous .528 from the floor, .467 from three, and .892 from the line. There aren't 5 wings in the league with better numbers than that, and SG/SF are easily the most loaded positions in the NBA.

Andray Blatche is right on schedule, the 21-year-old big man averaging a respectable 7.6 & 5.1 in just 20 minutes, with 0.7 steals and 1.8 blocks per. Blatche signed a contract extension over the summer; details weren't disclosed, but it's thought to be in the $2.5-$3M a year range. If so, that's looking like a complete steal for the Wizards, he'd get double that easily if he were a free agent this summer.

--Another team playing some good basketball right now is Milwaukee. Oh crap, they just got hammered by the dreadful 76ers last night. Ah, bad games happen--before that horrifying loss they had piled up five straight wins, including impressive victories @ Cleveland and home against the LA Lakers & Dallas Mavericks. They're not a great team (they're still being outscored on average by their opponents), but they have some promise. Yi Jianlian has had a solid start to his NBA career, the 20-year-old posting a respectable 10 & 6, and Michael Redd has added some all-around skills to go with his always deadly scoring--he's averaging 24/6/4 in the early going.

On the flip side, Andrew Bogut has been a bit of a disappointment, IMO. His 12 & 9 averages are respectable--but exactly what he did last year, suggesting he might be topping out far short of what you want from a #1 overall pick.

--So you might have noticed a couple of teams here have picked up quality wins over the Mavs, so what's going on in Dallas? Good question. Their 9-5 record so far extrapolates out to 53 wins, a whopping 14 short of the 67 they piled up last year. They're 3-4 on the road, as opposed to 27-14 in 2006-2007.

Their scoring is up a bit from last year, but they're giving up 5 more points a game on D. I actually think this is somewhat typical for a lot of teams, you can only get the absolutely manic defensive effort out of a team for so long--especially when you have highly skilled players. If you have a Ben Wallace or a Bruce Bowen, you never have to worry about their defensive effort because that's their meal ticket. But when it's Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, etc., those guys want to score, they don't want to go 40 minutes a night spending all their energy shutting someone down. You can bitch and moan about "today's players" (who play infinitely better defense on average than "yesterday's players"), but these guys are only human, it's pretty hard to get up day after day and do something you don't want to do. Think about how much you phone it in at your job.

There's also some concern that Golden State gave the league the blueprint for how to beat this team by going small at C and at PF, taking their two big defensive-minded centers (Dampier & Diop) out of the game, and daring Nowitzki to physically beat your undersized PF. But not many teams have athletic enough guys to get away with that.

I wouldn't be concerned if I were a Dallas fan (well, I wouldn't be that concerned). They'll get it going, they're too talented not to, and I wouldn't mind seeing the team go a little while before starting to peak. It's a long regular season, and nobody's giving you a trophy for shooting your load in the first 82 games and then getting stomped out of the playoffs.

But the trend that I'd find worrisome is Dirk's slump. Here's where I think Golden State really did do some damage, everyone is going with the small defender on Dirk and forcing him to do what he doesn't want to do--be physical. Dirk is way down on points, FG% and 3PT% this year. He won the MVP just last year, it's hard to believe he won't snap out of it and go back to being his usual unstoppable scoring machine self--but he's 29-years-old, it's not out of the question that we're seeing the first stage of his decline, coupled with a better strategic defensive matchup by opposing teams.

Fortunately for the Mavs, it's looking like Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Devin Harris are ready to pick up the scoring slack if Dirk doesn't go back to being Dirk. Howard has been fantastic in the early going, averaging 21/7/2 and shooting .513 from the floor and .855 from the line. Terry is average 17.4 PPG with sparkling shooting percentages: .486/.467/.872. And Devin Harris, who I thought was ready to break out last year, seems to be doing just that in the early part of this season, putting up 16/3/5.5 and shooting a solid .463 from the floor.

Another guy I like a lot on Dallas is Brandon Bass, keep an eye on him. He's an undersized PF (ah, there's that phrase again) out of LSU who inexplicably did nothing in two years in New Orleans, but is now putting up a respectable 9.5 & 5.2 in just 22 minutes per game. What I like about this guy is it gives Dallas an athletic big man to throw in there for when teams try to go small against them. Bass is a much better matchup for Al Harrington, Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson than giant old statues like Dampier & Diop (OK, he's a giant young statue).

--Speaking of gaudy shooting percentages above, let's take a quick look at Steve freakin' Nash. Nash is averaging his customary 19 & 11 and leading the way for the 11-3 Suns--and he's shooting:

.551 from the floor (10th in the league, with Josh Childress at .555 the only guy ahead of him who isn't 6'10+)

.524 from three (4th in the league)

1.000 from the FT line (obviously 1st in the league--he's 40-for-40 on the year)

DARKO MATTER

I want to say a few words about Darko Milicic. Milicic is regarded as the Ryan Leaf of the NBA, the ultimate draft flop, and there's obviously some basis for thinking that about a guy who was sandwiched between 4 perennial all-stars in Lebron, Carmelo, Bosh & D-Wade.

But I think it's about time we give Darko a little bit of credit for turning himself into a quality NBA starter. No, he'll never be Chris Bosh (forget the big three from that draft class), and it'll always be considered one of the most famous draft screw-ups ever. But now I'm starting to think Detroit's subsequent trade of Darko was almost as dumb.

First off, Darko has turned himself into a completely different player since he joined the league. Where he was a skinny-ish 245 pound combo forward when he was drafted, he's now a solid 280 pound PF/C type. This was a great move for him--he's athletic for a seven footer, but not nearly enough to be a combo forward in the NBA, those guys are generally freakshows. And playing the big SF position requires a high skill level; Darko has skills, for sure, but he's not Kevin Garnett, he's not Andrei Kirilenko. Bulking up has allowed Darko to go from a relatively unathletic, relatively unskilled combo forward to a relatively athletic, relatively skilled big man.

Secondly, let's keep in mind that he's only 22. Look at it this way: if no one had ever heard the name Darko Milicic, and he was drafted this year by Memphis as a 22-year-old center prospect, they'd be thrilled at where he is. After a great game matching up against Yao on both ends of the floor (scoring 20), Darko is now averaging a respectable 11 & 8 with 2.0 blocks per game. That might not be great for "the guy drafted between Lebron and Carmelo", but it's pretty damn solid for a 22-year-old center.

In short, Darko came into the league in an impossible position, and promptly flamed out about as bad as you can possibly flame out. And some of it was his own fault, he reportedly didn't have the greatest atittude or work ethic when he was in Detroit. But I do think he deserves a lot of credit for growing up and remaking himself into a legitimate NBA starting big man. Memphis made a great move picking him up, and I'll be rooting for him and for them.

Speaking of Memphis, Mike Conley is starting to see some minutes here and there, and is producing strongly when he gets them. In just 17 minutes per game over 4 games, Conley is averaging 6.5 points, 5.0 assists, and only 1.0 turnover. I love this guy, he's going to be huge. I said before that he probably wouldn't do much this year, but I think I'm going to back off that a bit--Memphis is figuring out more quickly than expected that Damon Stoudamire ain't leading them to anything, now or ever, and Juan Carlos Navarro has been a huge disappointment for them. Conley and Kyle Lowry are the future for this franchise, and Coach Iavaroni will turn to them soon enough. I predict Conley is getting 25+ minutes per game by January and putting up 10 & 7 type numbers.

Other quick-hitters:

Not only is Boston 7-0 to start the season, they're just blowing teams out. Other than a 3 point road win over a good Toronto team, every other win has been by double figures. Their average margin of victory for the 7 games is an insane 17.2 points. (BTW, next highest is the Spurs, as can be expected; but next after that are the surprising New Orleans Hornets, who are now 7-2, including 4-1 on the road).

For all the excitement about several high-profile players moving to the East, it looks to be the same old junior varsity conference early on: in 39 interconference matchups so far, the West has taken 24 of them, good for a .615 winning percentage. At least the Celtics look like a real competitor with the Western big dogs, but the conference just has no depth after them, Detroit and Orlando.

Welcome to superstardom: Dwight Howard through the first 8 games is averaging 21.9 & 14.6 and blocking 2.6 shots per game. He's even cut his TOs to a respectable 3.0 per game, down a full turnover from last year. Surrounding him with shooters like Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu is genius, Orlando has turned into a real difficult matchup. They haven't played a monster schedule yet, but 5-0 on the road is impressive regardless.

EARLY TRENDS

POSITIVE:

1. New Orleans Hornets

I like what New Orleans is doing in their 4-1 start. They're far from an elite team, but it's accomplishment enough to even make the playoffs in the Western Conference, and I think they're gonna do it this year. They have a cool offensive system where they line up with two big time shooters (Morris Peterson, Rasual Butler and Peja Stojakovic, looking like his old sweet-shooting self), a good all-around PF with a nice shooting touch (David West), and a giant rebounder (Tyson Chandler), and it's all led by superstar in the making Chris Paul.

Other teams have tried this format, putting a bunch of shooters on the floor with a couple big rebounders, but what makes it work for New Orleans is the genius of Chris Paul. As I watched him dismantle the Lakers with 21 assists (against 2 turnovers), I just marvelled at what this guy can do with the basketball. Virtually every offensive possession the Hornets have goes like this: Paul penetrates past his man with ridiculous ease, the defense collapses on him at the FT line (or if they don't, he just takes it to the basket), he kicks to whoever is now open out of Peterson, Peja and West, they get a wide open shot. Or if the center comes at him, he dumps off to Chandler for a garbage bucket. And the thing is, he never makes the wrong decision. New Orleans is shooting 43% from three on 21+ attempts per game, and Paul is averaging 12.4 assists per.

I like this team a lot, they're fun to watch. (And keep your eye on rookie Julian Wright; he's not getting regular PT and probably won't this season, but I saw him get some minutes against Portland a week ago and he looked like he could be a real player down the line).

2. Atlanta Hawks

I can't believe what this team is doing--wins over Phoenix and Dallas, a heartbreaking 1-point road loss to Detroit, and another close road loss at New Jersey to be the most impressive 2-2 team in basketball. They haven't given up 100 points in a game yet, holding Phoenix to 96 last night (impressive even with Amare injured).

All of a sudden the Hawks are a very good rebounding team, led by promising rookie Al Horford (getting almost 11 boards per game in under 30 minutes per).

Super-athlete Josh Smith is doing everything (except taking good shots). Check out these averages through the first four games: 17.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.5 steals, 4.0 blocks. What a freakshow.

And Marvin Williams looks like a completely different player, as sometimes happens in a player's third season. Williams is being aggressive taking the ball to the basket and getting the line, and is averaging a very nice 18/6/2, shooting over 60% from the floor and over 80% from the line (on a solid 5.5 attempts per game). He's become a real tough matchup, and is even playing some solid defense. I mean, let's keep in mind that Williams is only 21, he played only one year at North Carolina--the book on him may have been closed a tad too soon.

And another thing I like about this team is it's depth. In addition to it's solid starting lineup of Joe Johnson, the 3 guys listed above, and Random Shitty Point Guard, the team has super-sub Josh Childress (my vote for the league's most underrated player) and Shelden Williams, and has solid center Zaza Pachulia coming back from injuries any day now. This team is big, athletic and deep, but has the same problem it's had forever--crappy PG play. There is some hope in the form of rookie Acie Law, at least as a scoring threat, but I don't think he can be a major playmaking PG in the NBA. But with Joe Johnson leading the show, maybe they don't need him to be--time will tell.

NEGATIVE

1. Phoenix Suns

I'm not saying they won't be a great team once Amare gets healthy, they almost certainly will be. But flash forward to next May, I think this team has some serious issues to address before it goes up against the other Western Conference big dogs. Thanks to being owned by some sort of paralegal or OfficeMax regional manager who can't afford to purchase real NBA-caliber reserves , the team has absolutely no depth. Their big men off the bench are Brian Skinner and Sean Marks. Seriously.

This is a 7 man team, and 2 of those guys--Grant Hill and Amare Stoudemire--come with major injury concerns. And do you really want Steve Nash playing 40 minutes a game for 82 games? That sounds like an excellent strategy for winning a championship. This team's roster should be forcibly removed from Phoenix's owner's broke-ass hands and given to somebody willing to spend a few more million dollars to add some goddamn depth. This franchise doesn't deserve such a cool and talented team, it should be in LA or NY--or anywhere that doesn't sell half their #1 picks for cash. I mean, seriously, Robert Sarver, do you need me to float you a couple hundred? Are you OK to pay your bills, is the electricity in America West Arena going to go out in the middle of a game?

This team needs another guard (or they need to play Marcus Banks 20 minutes a game), they need another swing player for when Grant Hill gets hurt, and they desperately need a quality big man or three. What are they going to do if and when they play San Antonio, put Amare on Tim Duncan the whole game? He picks up a foul every 3 minutes against Duncan, so now you've just taken your top scorer out of the game and you have Brian Skinner one-on-one with Tim Duncan--with Sean Marks waiting in the wings. That'll work.

What an embarassment this franchise is. The Suns' fans deserve better, Steve Nash deserves better, and the whole goddamn NBA in general deserves better.

2. Chicago

Nice call on not pulling the trigger on the Kobe trade, Paxson. Now your team is in free-fall, the young guys aren't panning out like you hoped they would, and the Lakers are playing pretty well (and with Lamar Odom due back soon)--so Kobe's most likely off the table. For now. We'll see what happens in another month, I'm certainly not counting any chickens. But regardless, the asking price just went up for Kobe while your assets have devalued.

Chicago's sitting here looking like they have exactly the same team as last year. Their best scorer is a 6'0 gunner (Ben Gordon), Luol Deng is still good but not yet on step one of the superstar track, Tyrus Thomas is oozing athleticism but his game is all over the map, and Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni are both decent but too inconsistent to be more than that.

Everyone always overrates potential, they always think their young guys are just on the cusp of exploding, but even promising players like Deng and Gordon and Thomas are so far from being superstars that you can't treat them like they're the 18-year-old Lebron James. Or the 29-year-old Kobe Bryant, for that matter. Like I've said all along, if Deng even makes it to the Paul Pierce level, consider yourself lucky as hell and pat each other on the back for making one hell of a draft pick--and Pierce has never led a team to jackshit. If you have a chance to get Kobe--in his prime--and have the ability to surround him with some good talent, you do it. Period.

Chicago will be fine, they'll get their shit together and win 45 or 48 games or whatever, and lose in the second round of the playoffs. But what they thought was going to happen--all these young guys exploding onto the scene, Deng joining the ranks of the true studs in the league, and the team developing into a real contender--ain't happening.

FILLED TO THE BRIM WITH GIRLISH GLEE

OK, I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm here--we are only 1/27th of the way through the season after all--but with my guys coming off back to back double digit wins over top 5 teams without Lamar Odom...well, let's just say: so far, so good.

Again, it's so early and it's just a couple of games (in the NBA where anything can happen, especially when you catch someone on game two of a back-to-back like the Lakers had with both Phoenix and Utah), that the results themselves don't really mean much. But there have been some very positive developments that are giving me just that slighest glimmer of hope:

1. The young guys look great. Andrew Bynum still isn't starting (although you have to hand it to Phil Jackson, Kwame Brown is playing shockingly solid so far), but has put up two very strong games in a row off the bench, with 14 & 13 in 22 minutes against Phoenix, and a huge 15 & 9 in 19 minutes tonight against Utah. The big fella has been playing smart and hard, he's destroying people on the glass, getting garbage buckets in the lane with his unbelievable hands, and giving them a real shotblocking presence.

Jordan Farmar was key in the 3rd and 4th quarters tonight when the Lakers put the game out of reach against a tough Utah team, coming up with 12 & 4 in 17 minutes.

Ronny Turiaf is the ultimate hustle guy, giving them great energy that'll serve the team well when he's coming off the bench upon Odom's return.

And Vladimir Radmanovic is showing signs of shaking off last year's cruddy season and is playing with the kind of confidence he had with the Clippers two years ago. He absolutely *buried* the Suns.

2. With a tough early schedule, this team had the potential of turning into a Notre Dame. With all the controversy over Kobe, some bad losses early could have really sunk the ship. I'm sure Kobe still would have played hard, all the talk about him not doing so was just poppycock, but everyone knows when he's disgruntled and it filters though the whole organization.

A bad start would have had the media sharks getting into a feeding frenzy, everyone would have been playing scared, it could have been a really bad scene. And I would have been very concerned about Lakers management making a panic move on the Kobe front, like taking a deal with Chicago that doesn't include Luol Deng.

I suppose it's still very possible the Lakers end up mediocre or worse, maybe we'll be talking in a couple weeks about what an outlier these last two games were. But I'm a hell of a lot less worried about a bad start now then I was before the season. The team is playing with incredible energy, getting tons of turnovers, sharing the ball unbelievably well, crashing the boards--it just doesn't look like a team on the precipice.

But it could all turn quickly, at least in terms of the team reverting back to mediocrity. I'm hardly sold that this is suddenly a 50+ win team. And they desperately need Odom back, the offense will look a lot different when the scrubs stop shooting the ball like they're Reggie Miller, Glen Rice and Ray Allen. But I'm encouraged by the team's energy, by how hard they're playing and how obviously enthusiastic they are, and I'm especially encouraged that a lot of that energy and effort is coming from the young guys. Here's hoping they can keep it up.