KOBE THOUGHTS

...Mark Heisler says in today's LA Times that Laker management isn't even considering trading Kobe, and I tend to believe him. He's really dialed in with the team, he usually knows what's up.

He said Chicago is offering Gordon, Thomas, Sefalosha and the #9 pick. You switch Deng in for Gordon and I'd absolutely leap at that deal, but Heisler says Chicago won't include him, period.

Personally I think that's pretty silly. I'm not saying they should necessarily do that particular deal with Deng in there, but it's stupid--if true--to just have him off the table, period, end of statement. He's a nice young player and had a great playoffs but he's still pretty far from being a superstar. The chances that he becomes a top 10 player in the league are like 20%, not like 80%. And if you have a guy who's 20%, that's not someone you flat-out won't consider trading. GMs have this weird emotional attachment to guys they've personally drafted, it would serve them better to just dispassionately look at their players as assets to be moved or utilized.

Speaking of players who've engendered a weird emotional attachment in their GM, I wonder if the Lakers have any chance in hell of making a Bynum-Odom for Garnett deal happen. Gut says no fucking way, but I think that's more because of sports GMs' conservatism in general and Kevin McHale's in particular than it being a bad trade for Minnesota. I doubt they're going to get any better offer, but I'll bet they just stand pat, waste Garnett's prime (at a hefty $23M a year) and--much like the Lakers--end up with a rebuilding movement that doesn't work because that one veteran superstar is too good to ever let the team be crappy enough to get high draft picks.

Why sports teams sit on their hands when there's a 100% chance of mediocrity--at best--is beyond me. I know they're worried about selling tickets, but the best way to do that is to be good; the next best way is to be mediocre but with some budding young stars giving the fans at least a glimmer of hope; the worst way to do that is to be mediocre and old with no chance whatsoever of turning things around quickly. I.e., Minnesota.

If I were Minnesota, I'd trade Garnett, period, for whatever the best deal is. You can't win with him in the immediate future (which is all he has left), but you have to pay him like he's winning championships for you left and right. And if that best deal was Odom-Bynum, I'd be perfectly happy with that. Odom's only 70% as good as Garnett, but he's 4 years younger and he makes $9M a year less. At 27, he can actually be part of a Randy Foye-Rashad McCants-#7 pick-Craig Davis (Andrew Bynum?) rebuilding movement. Garnett will be too old by the time these guys pan out. And you get to save $18M over the next 2 years while waiting for that to happen.

And they're not going to get any better prospect than Bynum, at least now that Garnett nixed the deal that would've netted them superstar-to-be Al Jefferson. If Bynum were in this draft , he'd be the hands-down #3 pick, it wouldn't even be close (he also wouldn't be close to being taken #1 or #2, but he'd definitely be #3 ahead of Horford, Jianlian, Conley, Wright, Brewer, Green, Noah, or anyone else).

I'm sure it won't happen right now, but when the T-Wolves are stinking it up next year and they're faced with the 100% chance of Garnett opting out next summer, they'll be forced to deal him for whatever they can get. They just can't take the chance he opts out and signs with someone for less money (he's already made literally hundreds of millions of dollars in his career), leaving them empty-handed. Hopefully Odom can come back healthy and Bynum can keep progressing nicely, and hopefully Phoenix or Chicago doesn't trump that offer--maybe, just maybe, we'll see the Kobe-KG era commence sometime around February 2008.

PORTLAND IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT

So I really don't think the Lakers are going to trade Kobe, period, no matter how much he complains. Even with his opt-out after 2009, they still hold quite a few cards. He can opt-out all he wants, but unless he finds a team with $20M+ in cap space, he'll have to work out a sign-and-trade with the Lakers. And what if the Lakers just say 'no', then what? He either slinks back to the Lakers or he gives up $10 million a year to leave--is that the Kobe Bryant you know?

So who has $20M in cap space *and* is a realistic contender? Nobody--except maybe one team, if they play their cards right and get a little lucky.

Portland will have Oden, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge all still on their (absurd) rookie contracts, getting paid well below what their real value is. This gives them the ideal situation of possibly having a ton of cap room *and* having enough surrounding talent to be attractive to Kobe. They can make a run at Kobe (or Wade or Lebron or Carmelo or anyone else who's unhappy with their situation) and then re-sign their young guys for anything up to the max with their Bird rights.

If Oden's as good as I think he's going to be, and if Roy-Aldridge build on their excellent rookie seasons, Kobe-Roy-Aldridge-Oden is an easy championship contender. Especially with Duncan and Nash likely winding down their careers right around then.

The only problem is that the Blazers have two terrible contracts. Zach Randolph is a fine player, but he's not close to a max money guy. He makes $16M in 2009/2010 and $17M in 2010/2011. It'll be tough to get rid of him, but not impossible. He's probably the best low post scorer in the NBA in a league where even most of the championship contenders desperately need post scoring.

Then there's Darius Miles. Ugh. He doesn't make outrageous money--$9M a year in 08/09 and 09/10--but it's outrageous relative to his value, which is pretty close to zero. But they just might be able to ditch him in the summer of 2009 when he only has 1 year left on his deal, especially if he can manage to come back healthy and show some of the athleticism he used to have. I mean, if you're young, big and athletic, somebody will take a chance on you. I mean, there are teams that still want Kwame fucking *Brown*.

Even if they can't ditch these guys, they're still perfectly positioned to make a 2009 deal for Kobe or another superstar--good young talent (I haven't even mentioned Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack or the highly promising Sergio Rodriguez) and some high-salary guys with quickly expiring contracts (which you need in order to make the money work).

Bottom line, Portland's in damn good shape. There's no luck in all of sports like the luck of getting the #1 pick when a true franchise center is available.