FRIDAY THOUGHTS

IVERSON

No word yet on where AI is heading. The Sixers rejected a Maggette-Mobley deal that would have potentially vaulted the Clippers into championship contention. Hey, at least Sterling took a shot, and at least he recognized what they have now isn't working. He wouldn't give up Livingston, but I think that makes sense. They have a good young group of players, no reason to mortgage the future. Maggette is just a good, young player--Livingston could be a superstar.

Sacramento also seems to be out of the running. So the leading contenders for Iverson appear to be the usual suspects, Indiana/Boston/Golden State, along with darkhorses Denver (in possible three-team deals with Chicago or Portland) and Miami. The latter IMO is highly unlikely; Miami just doesn't have anybody anyone wants--except one guy, and he ain't going anywhere.

I'm still making Boston the prohibitive favorite.

CHICAGO

Chicago's red-hot right now, winners of 9 of their last 10, but I still think a Garnett deal makes perfect sense for both them and the T-Wolves. They're supposedly interested in Golden State's Troy Murphy, but what's he going to do for you? The Bulls have a ton of solid young talent, but I don't see them winning any championships without a superstar--especially with an offensive zero on the floor for 35 minutes a night for the next 4 years. The highly coveted Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni are both wing players, one of them can be offered up in the deal. Then you have Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and an *extremely* valuable high 2007 draft pick to barter with. Minnesota could rebuild their franchise with this deal (and why pay one guy $20M when you have no chance of making the playoffs now or in the foreseeable future?) Garnett could come home and play for a serious contender. It just seems to make sense for all concerned. Make it happen.

HOT/NOT

Speaking of Nocioni, he's been shooting the lights out since being moved into the starting lineup ("coincidentally" right after I suggested that in this space). In 6 games as a sub, he averaged 12 & 5. In 16 games as a starter, he's bumped that up to 18 & 6.5, with 2.3 threes per game on .457 shooting (and .493 overall).

Ben Gordon has also been playing well in the Bulls' recent run. In 8 games in December, he's averaging 21 ppg with 2.3 threes on .439 shooting.

If we're going to talk about 'hot', then we need to discuss what's going on in Phoenix. After some early season stumbles the Suns are running on all cylinders, reeling off 12 straight wins, with most of them coming in blowouts.

Amare looks awfully close to full strength; in the last 10, he's averaging 20.4 & 9.6 in just 32 minutes per game. Shawn Marion continues to dominate in every possible way, and Steve Nash just keeps getting better. He's currently averaging career highs in ppg (21.2), assists (11.7), FG% (.529), 3PTM (2.3), and 3PT% (.489). Raja Bell is knocking down 3+ threes per game at a .453 clip, and even Boris Diaw seems to be getting back into the swing of things, averaging a solid 12/6/6 in 7 December games. This is a scary good team, but a healthy Amare remains the key for them in the playoffs.

The Lakers keep rolling, getting their record up to 15-7 with a solid road win over Houston (without McGrady, but the Lakers were missing their #2 guy too). They also gave the Mavs a tough game on the road--through 3.5 quarters, at least--after learning the devastating news that Lamar Odom would be out for at least a month. I think they'll be fine. They'll lose some games, and it'll hurt their playoff seeding, but this team is too deep to fall apart. They'll really miss Odom's rebounding and defense (they had no answer for Nowitzki in the Dallas game), and they have a brutal road stretch coming up, but I think Luke Walton, Vladimir Radmanovic, Kwame Brown, Ronny Turiaf and Maurice Evans can hold down the forward positions in Lamar's absence. Rad in particular showed some signs of life the other night with 11 points in 18 minutes. His 3 stroke still seems to be a little off, but hopefully he'll improve that with more playing time.

Speaking of the Lakers, I really like what Jordan Farmar is giving them off the bench. In the last 7 games, he's averaging 7/2/2 with 1.1 steals in just 20 minutes, but more importantly he's *really* knocking down the open jumper (with a .636 FG% and .429 3PT%) and playing great man defense. With Smush Parker struggling with consistency issues, it's nice to have another option to turn to. I'm predicting right now Farmar's the starting PG to begin the 07-08 season. Better ballhandler, better defender, potentially better shooter--those are the things the Lakers need out of their PG.

I've been asked about Eddy Curry by a bunch of people--OK, here it is: Eddy Curry is playing insanely great basketball right now. He's had 11 straight games with 20 or more, averaging 25 & 9 and shooting .593 from the floor in those games. It's surprising in the sense that he's always been a drastic underachiever, but the potential for this has always been there. As I often say in this space, Curry is an unstoppable low post scorer, with a variety of moves, great footwork, a soft touch around the rim, and surprising quickness for his size. He's like a cross between Shaq and Zach Randolph. I think he's just now figuring out how good he is, getting in the mindset of a no-bullshit #1 scorer who looks for a basket every time he touches the ball. It's hard for some guys to take on that role of being the team's superstar, the guy who the team lives or dies with--for the Knicks up to this point, that's been Stephon Marbury or Jamal Crawford. That's a recipe for disaster. But now it's looking like Eddy Curry is finally understanding that the best chance the team has of winning is by him scoring 25 a night.

Hey, suddenly that trade with Chicago doesn't look so awful. If the Knicks can parlay Curry's great play into 35-40 wins, all of a sudden we're talking about the Bulls getting Al Horford instead of Greg Oden with that first round pick. That's a big difference. Curry is still only 24 (just turned that on Dec 5, as a matter of fact); if he's suddenly a 20-a-game guy--and his ticker keeps working--maybe Isiah finally did get the better of a deal.

On the cold side, we turn to the Orlando Magic. The Magic are 4-6 in their last 10, and are coming off horrific back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Bobcats. The good news is that their recent crap-ass play can be mostly attributed to injuries, as Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu and now Grant Hill have missed time. Their bench has continued its strong play, but it hasn't been enough to overcome the injuries. Jameer Nelson might be having a disappointing fantasy year, but he's still a very good real life player, a guy who can really break down the defense and open up the floor for everyone else to operate. Once he gets back, I think Orlando will turn it around and get back to being a contender in the East.

A disappointing team with fewer excuses is the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're 5-5 in their last 10, and are coming off just a godawful loss to a competely depleted New Orleans team (a game in which Rasual Butler, Cedric Simmons, Tyson Chandler, and Desmond Mason started, and Jennero Pargo played 35 minutes).

You know, that was a great game to watch if you ever want to know why Lebron James, as good as he is, can't carry Kobe's or Wade's jock yet.

He took 18 shots in the game (probably no more than 5 in the second half when Cleveland was throwing the game away) and I'll bet fewer than a handful were within 17 feet of the basket. Taking jumpers is easy, especially when you're Lebron James. They'll give you the jumper *all day*--and if you settle for that, and aren't especially hot (he was 7-18 in this game), then you're handing the other team the win. Kobe settles for the jumper a lot too but he's a miles better shooter than LBJ, while Wade is just relentless going to the basket.

Kobe might be a lot of things, but he never, *ever* just coasts through a game like that and costs his team a win with sins of omission. I love LBJ, you know I do, but he was sitting in the corner fondling his pud for 80% of this game--it was a pathetic effort. Making him look even worse was Chris Paul singlehandedly willing his team to victory and putting up a monster 30 & 11.

I'd like to see Cleveland get more minutes for Anderson Varejao with Drew Gooden coming back from injury. In the 3 games Gooden was out or limited, Varejao averaged 15 & 9 and was a great source of energy for a generally lethargic team. It's hard to get both of them on the floor at the same time when they're going up against someone with a real center, but half the teams in the league are playing with a Bosh or Kwame there now--for those games, I'd rather see them do what they did against the Pistons last year and play small with a Gooden-Varejao frontcourt. Ilgauskas just looks like a fucking statue out there, he's terrible now.

And then there's the Clippers.

I have no answers folks. The Clips are now 10-11 on the season, 4-6 in their last 10, 1-7 on the road. They're coming off back-to-back 20 point HOME losses to league elites San Antonio and Utah, proving beyond any doubt that they're absolutely nowhere even close to being a serious contender in the West. The Kaman injury really hurts them a lot--not only is Kaman a good player in his own right, but Elton Brand also somewhat feeds off him, his partner in defending the lane & controlling the boards--but what's going on is just a total disaster.

The organization recognizes this and tried valiantly to make a big splash with Iverson, but unfortunately got the Heisman from Billy King. They could use a perimeter scorer, and they have a valuable and expendable piece in Corey Maggette, but I don't know what's out there for them. My gut feeling is that they're going to end up with what they have now, so it's up to Dunleavy to try and get things turned around. He too understands the severity of the situation, and recently elevated Shaun Livingston to the starting lineup. Shaun is playing fairly well--averaging 12/3/7 as a starter, with .495 shooting--but it's not translating into wins. As you know, I'm not a huge Dunleavy fan and thought that extension he signed was absolutely ridiculous--well, here's a chance to shut me up and earn his money. We'll see.

IVERSON TRADE RUMORS

As predicted in this space, there's a ton of interest in Iverson now that he's officially been put up on the trading block. For the people who think you can't win with him, you might be right--but I feel like he's never really had a chance to show he can play with other stars (and don't give me Webber; you know I love C-Webb (ever since he apologized for wrecking UM's basketball program), but the Philly Webber is *not* a superstar).

Nobody thought Jerry Stackhouse could be a valuable role player, and look what he's done in Dallas. Iverson's obviously a million times better than Stack, but the point is, I think there's a good chance Iverson can also fit his game in with other talented players. I could be wrong; I just hope we get a chance to see it. Love him or hate him, Iverson's an all-timer and deserves a chance to show what he can do.

By the way, the stuff about including Webber in this deal is hilariously misguided--*nobody* is taking Webber's contract off Philly's hands, Iverson or no.

Anyway, sizing up the contenders for AI's services:

Charlotte

Once thought to be a frontrunner, they now appear out of the mix as Iverson flat-out doesn't want to play there. Understandably.

LA Clippers

Always one of the usual suspects when Iverson's name comes up, they appear to be out of the mix now. Any rumor involving Shaun Livingston is probably baseless--the Clippers just won't give him up, period.

Minnesota

Another team thought to be an early frontrunner, their interest looks to be waning as well. I wonder if this means Garnett is more likely to be dealt--you don't trade for Iverson if you're getting rid of Garnett, and conversely you probably don't hang on to Foye over Iverson if you're going to keep KG around. Or they could just have no fucking clue what they're doing, yet another team caught between hanging on to an aging superstar while trying to rebuild at the same time and neither winning now nor setting themselves up for the future.

Sacramento

Possibly the new frontrunner, rumors are swirling about a Bibby-Kenny Thomas package. It makes sense from a $$$ perspective, but Bibby is already 28 and while he's a good player, he's hardly a superstar. Meanwhile Kenny Thomas is on the hook through 2011. He makes reasonable money, but he's not exactly a highly coveted piece of a rebuilding project in Philadelphia. Seems like the 76ers can do better.

But everyone thought the Lakers could do better when they were dealing their aging--but still damned good--superstar too...and they couldn't. Sports teams are *extremely* conservative, and as good as Iverson is, he's a huge gamble. It's a gamble whether you can win with him, whether he'll cause chemistry problems, whether he can stay healthy another three years, whether he'll be worth $60M over this and the next two years--it's a gamble. My personal opinion is that I wouldn't disrupt a situation that's already working in order to get him--if the Lakers made a deal for him, for example, I'd be irate--but it's worth it for someone who's going nowhere fast. Like the Kings. And Bibby is probably the biggest name of all the players being thrown around in trade rumors. If I were Philly, I'd be looking to roll the dice on young up-and-comers and draft picks, but I can see how they'd be enticed by the prospect of getting a biggish name in return for their franchise guy.

Indiana

The Pacers are supposedly hot and heavy in all this, but the only rumors involving them that I've seen include the names Jamaal Tinsley and Stephen Jackson. But none of the articles explained why, exactly, Philly would be interested in an injury-prone so-so PG and a psychopath gunner, both on the payroll through 2010. I'd guess Granger would have to be in the mix, Indy doesn't really have anyone else the 76ers would covet--and I've read that Granger is specifically off the table. I just don't see this as a real possibility. It would make Indy an instant contender in the East if they could pull this off, but Philly can and will do better.

Golden State

Golden State is considered a major player here, but there's a lot of smoke about GS trying to be a party of the third part in an effort to shuttle Iverson through to someone else along with one of their terrible contracts (Troy Murphy, Adonal Foyle). But it's pretty hard to foist one of those kinds of guys off on someone who isn't named Isiah.

Anyway, if the Warriors did get involved and kept Iverson, well--can you imagine Iverson in a Don Nelson offense? Maybe they wouldn't contend for a title, but they'd be a hell of a lot of fun to watch. Nelson supposedly loves Iverson, but wants to pair him with Baron Davis in the backcourt. And if Davis isn't part of the deal, and the highly promising Monta Ellis is off the table, and an undesirable contract needs to be included to make the money work out...well, then what are they going to put together that'll interest Philly? I suppose Jason Richardson is a possibility, but his knee injury puts a major kink in that plan.

Denver

I've seen Denver mentioned a lot as a darkhorse candidate, but with conspicuously little speculation on what players might be involved in the deal--so I'll have to do a little guesswork here. I don't see how anyone in their right mind takes Kenyon Martin and his gimpy, gimpy knees, so strike that right there. Andre Miller would almost certainly be a part of the deal--Iverson can play point, and Miller's a good, solid veteran who makes reasonable money. Nene would most likely be in the mix too, but he's a huge gamble at $12M a year through 2011. He's got a lot of upside, but not much of it is realized, and he's almost as injury-prone as Martin. Furthermore, Denver has no other promising young players to offer Philly, nor a good 2007 1st round draft pick. Denver might really, really want this to happen--they're almost certainly not a true title contender out of the West as is, and it'd be fun as hell to watch Carmelo and AI scoring 115 a game, but I just don't see this working out.

Boston

This is a great example of a team who could put together a really nice package--but might not want to. They have a ton of good young players. Assuming Al Jefferson is off the table, Philly can still take its pick from Sebastian Telfair, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Gerald Green, Delonte West, Ryan Gomes, and Tony Allen. Plus Boston will have a high draft pick in the loaded 2007 draft. They also have big expiring contracts in Theo Ratliff and Wally Sczerbiak to make the money work out. They can probably put together the most attractive package of any of the contenders.

But with all those young players, it might make sense just to stand pat. Pierce and Wally are still under 30, Al Jefferson has come on strong lately, Gerald Green shows major flashes of potential, one or both of Telfair/Rondo will probably pan out down the road. Add a Yoakim Noah to this group and you might really have something in a couple years.

But on the other hand, Boston's obviously a flagship NBA franchise and they've been bad for a while. I sense some real impatience with this franchise, and that's what could drive an Iverson deal. I could see Ainge being frustrated with all the kids and pulling the trigger just to make a splash.

So I'm predicting, for better or for worse, Iverson ends up in Boston. You hate to trade a guy to one of your rivals (and with Iverson, virtually guaranteeing he'll go off on you the next 20 times you play him), but it's what makes the most sense for the franchise in terms of getting quality young talent.

A GOLDEN AGE

As you've heard me say before, we're heading into a golden age in the NBA, with the most talent entering the league since at least the early-80s. Just for fun, I put together a listing of players currently 25 or under:

First Team:

Dwyane Wade
Lebron James
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Bosh
Dwight Howard

Notes: That's awfully close to being the all-NBA first team, period.

And yes, I have Dwight Howard over Stoudemire. Amare is putting up great numbers, no question, and I'm excited about that, but he still isn't all the way back. Meanwhile Dwight Howard has taken over for Ben Wallace as "Baddest Man on the Planet". He's a force of nature on both ends. And wait 'til he gets some post moves.

Second Team:

Chris Paul
Gilbert Arenas
Joe Johnson
Carlos Boozer
Amare Stoudemire

Notes: There are so many good players under 25, early MVP candidates Zach Randolph and Deron Williams can't even get on the second team.

Third Team:

Deron Williams
Tony Parker
Kevin Martin
Zach Randolph
Emeka Okafor

Honorable Mention (rest of lists in no particular order):

Luol Deng
Eddy Curry (hey, averaging 24 & 9 over the last 7--as still only a 24-year-old--makes people take notice; Eddy's now up to a respectable 17 & 7 on the season)
Kirk Hinrich
Luke Ridnour
Andre Iguodala
Jameer Nelson
Josh Smith
Chris Kaman
TJ Ford
Boris Diaw
Mo Williams
Ben Gordon
Charlie Villanueva
David Lee
Leandro Barbosa
Monta Ellis

Guys on the cusp of breaking out:

Nenad Krstic
Zaza Pachulia
Andris Biedrins
Ray Felton
Brandon Roy
Shaun Livingston (disappointing start to the season, but averaging 12/3/6 with 2 turnovers and a block per game & shooting .464 in 5 games as a starter--also playing great defense)

Very promising:

Andrew Bogut
Sean May
Andrea Bargnani
Devin Harris
Andrew Bynum
Adam Morrison
LaMarcus Aldridge
Paul Millsap
Jordan Farmar
Darko Milicic

Too early to tell, but flashes of brilliance:

Marvin Williams
Rashad McCants
Martell Webster
Al Jefferson
JR Smith
Tyrus Thomas
Sergio Rodriguez
Kyle Lowry
Thabo Sefalosha
Randy Foye


AND HERE COME THE KIDS

Now here's the crazy thing--the 2007 draft class is shaping up to be yet another bonanza of talent, potentially rivaling even the ridiculous 2003 class. Freshmen are dominating college basketball--basically showing how little they need that one year of pretending to go to class and getting called for bogus charges any time a 5'11 165 pound white guy gets in their way.

Greg Oden is oviously the prize, a legit 7-footer with a massive frame, strength, athleticism, and skill. He got a late start to the season due to a wrist injury, but made an impressive debut last week with 14 & 10 and 5 blocks in 23 minutes. He only shot 8-15 from the line...because he shot them with his left fucking hand, as he was still wearing a soft cast on his right. How ridiculous is that, he's already a better FT shooter than Shaq--with his off hand.

On the subject, it's amazing how many promising young big men are coming into the NBA right now. In addition to Oden, we have Dwight Howard, Eddy Curry, Andrew Bynum, Nenad Krstic, Zaza Pachulia, Andris Biedrins, Andrew Bogut, LaMarcus Aldridge--after a real down period where Shaq was practically the only decent real center out there, Yao comes along and now the flood gates have opened.

And speaking of Ohio State, they have another NBA-ready freshman in Daequan Cook, a 6'5 shooting guard who's averaging 18 & 7 and shooting .573 from the floor and .514 from three--he'll likely be a lottery pick in the 2007 draft.

Kevin Durant will be a real nice consolation prize for whoever misses out on Oden. I saw this guy go for 29 & 9 against Gonzaga, he was unreal. He's a hyper-athletic 6'10 small forward, but with a *smooth* jumper. I mean, he looks like Mike Miller out there, just picture perfect form. His numbers are sick, he's averaging 23/9/2 with 1.4 steals and 2.4 blocks, and he's shooting--get this--.452 from three *on six attempts per game*, and .930 from the line. He's 40-for-43 from the line this year. He's unbelievable, he could be a more athletic version of Dirk Nowitzki. His handles are a bit weak for an NBA small forward, but hey, he's 18, the sky is the limit for this guy.

I've also caught a couple North Carolina games, and this guy keeps popping out, Brandan Wright. Once he gets into the NBA next year, he'll have to have an arm-off with Tayshaun Prince to see who's got the longest wingspan in the league. I swear to christ, his arms hang down to his knees. I saw him block like three standard-issue jumpers from 3-4 feet away, it was like the shooters couldn't believe he was in position to block their shots. "Hey, I'm open"--swat--"nope, guess not". Anyway, he's averaging 'only' 16 & 7 with a block per game, but man, this guy has some serious upside. Great hops, great quickness, great hands, great length (that word is never more appropriate--Wright is *long*) and what looks like a solid understanding of the game. Unlike Oden and Durant, who are pretty much ready to be major contributors in the NBA right now, Wright will probably need a couple years. He's *really* skinny, but doesn't have the all-around game to play SF in the Association, at least not at this point. I mean, he's got a nice looking array of shots and a decent handle, but his future is at the 4. He needs to add some muscle, stat.

We also have another fugly white shooter coming into the league soon to join Adam Morrison in Arizona's Chase Buddinger (seriously, how can a guy with a name like Chase Buddinger be a baller? It makes no sense). Anyway, Buddinger is tearing it up in the early going, averaging 19/7/2 & shooting .591 from the floor and .387 from three. Defying all stereotypes, Buddinger is a hell of an athlete, a huge jumper--second in the dunk contest at the McDonald's game--with excellent strength and size. He's probably not all that quick for an NBA shooting guard, but he's quick enough.

Between these guys, a bunch of other good freshmen, Yoakim Noah, several high profile Euros in the mix, and the great OJ Mayo set to hit the big time in 2008, there looks to be yet another giant influx of talent coming into the league in the next couple of years. We're in a golden age, folks, I can't remember a time in any sport where so many good young players entered a league all within 5 years of each other.

The 2010 All-Star game is just going to be insane.

FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE

Kobe

If you didn't watch the Lakers-Jazz game last night, you missed a real treat, one of the most entertaining things in all of sports--seeing a great basketball player absolutely GOING OFF.

Kobe dropped a 30 spot in the third period alone and ended with 52--after sitting for most of the 4th and playing a total of only 34 minutes. He shot a sick 19-26 from the floor, on almost all jumpers. Unfortunately, the Jazz couldn't hit the broadside of a barn and the Lakers won in a blowout, causing Jackson to pull Kobe to start the fourth. Jackson did the right thing, for sure, but if he'd kept Kobe in there I'm pretty confident we would have been looking at a 70-point game. Minimum. Kobe was flat-out on fire at the end of the third, hitting ridiculous threes, fallaway jumpers over *Kirilenko*, driving at will (and getting the calls), etc. Even when Utah finally began sending another guy at him, Kobe either split the double team--which he does better than any player in the history of the league--or worked the ball around in the offense to get it back in better position. Just a tour de force performance, a clinic in offensive brilliance.

Now I've had the privilege of seeing hundreds and hundreds of Kobe's games. I came to LA shortly after he did (to slightly less fanfare), and I've watched a good 80-90% of Laker games during my time here. So if Kobe's played a total of 846 games in the regular season and playoffs, I've probably seen more than 700 of them. And while I've witnessed some amazing, incredible, unbelievable things during those 700 games, I've seen Kobe go off like this only a handful of times. This performance wasn't quite up there with the 81-point game, obviously, and singlehandedly outscoring the Mavs through three quarters, but it was still just an astonishing feat, something that maybe 5-10 guys in league history could ever do--on their single greatest day. Like I said, he easily could've put in 70; when Jackson reluctantly put him back in the game for a couple minutes in the 4th, he had cooled off considerably and wasn't even really looking for his shot. But what we did get to see was amazing enough. I had goose bumps watching it. Incredible, incredible performance by an incredible, incredible player.

The Dead Ball

A lot has been made of the so-called "dead ball". The conventional wisdom is that: (1) it's harder to handle because of its slick surface and (b) it bounces dead off the rim, giving it a better chance to roll in.

Now I've always thought #1 would prove to be overblown, that players would get used to it in preseason and turnovers would be right where they were in previous seasons. Well, I was wrong--at least so far. Turnovers are up from about 27.7 per game in 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 to 30.4 so far in 2006-2007, an increase of about 10%--and I don't think all the increase can be attributed to Mark Blount getting more minutes. And my own personal observation is that players are struggling a bit handling the ball--I've seen more lost dribbles and wild-looking passes this year than I can ever remember seeing (in a non-University of Michigan game, I mean). I still think players will eventually get used to it and this aspect of the new ball won't be a big deal, but I'll keep an eye on it and report back in a few months.

As for the other feature, the "deadness" of the ball, look, our eyes don't deceive--at a minimum, the new ball is *weird*. I'm sure, like me, you've seen some absolutely bizarre bounces off the rim with the new ball; flat, strange bounces, bounces you completely don't expect, balls coming in at 100 miles an hour and just *thudding* on the rim and dying there. There's just no doubt in my mind that the ball is, in fact, "dead". So it follows from that that more buckets are being made, that dead bounces on the rim give the ball a better chance of dropping in.

So do the numbers prove it out?

No, not really. Field goal percentage is pretty much exactly where it was last year, 45.3%. Now I have a couple of theories here. First off, more threes are being attempted this year for whatever reason, about 10% more per game than last year. The FG% disparity between 2-point FGs and 3-point FGs is enormous. On the season to date, players are shooting a collective .483 from 2 and .341 from 3.

But a bigger factor might be that players are just rustier to begin the season and that FG percentages climb after the first few months. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any data on the internet to compare numbers one month into the season, but I did notice that three-point FG%--a place where you'd most expect to find rustiness early on--is down from .357 in 2005-2006 to .341 so far in 2006-2007, that's a pretty significant drop.

Interestingly, 2-point FG% is up to .483 from .478 last year. Not a huge difference, but taken with the "rustiness" theory, may suggest that the dead ball is, in fact, likely to result in more baskets made. Again, I'll keep an eye on it and report back in another month or so. If I'm right, then we should expect to see FG percentages up across the board.

East Meets West--and gets its ass kicked

A lot has already been said about this, but seriously, the Eastern Conference is a total fucking joke right now. In 74 interconference games, the West holds a 50-24 record, for a .676 winning percentage. I wonder if any league in the history of sports has ever had such a wide disparity between its two divisions. Even in the worst days of conference disparity in the NBA 4-5 years ago, it was never this bad.

The East has 4 teams at .500 or better and 10 teams at .400 or under--including the entire Atlantic Division. The West has 3 teams at .400 or under and 11 teams at .500 or better--including the entire Pacific Division.

If the playoffs started today, Washington--at a .357 winning percentage--would be in the playoffs in the East. Seattle is currently the 14th best team in the West, the second to worst team in the conference. They're at .375.

Comers And Goers

A couple of rookies have made strides in the past couple of weeks:

Andrea Bargnani has worked his way into the rotation and has gotten 20+ minutes in six straight games. In those games he's averaging 12 & 4 with a three and block per game.

Randy Foye is also starting to see some minutes in Minnesota, and is responding nicely. In the last three games, he's averaging 14 PPG in just 23 minutes and has shot 17-30 from the floor and 3-4 from three. Frankly, I don't know what the problem has been. I've only seen a couple of their games, but Foye has looked great in them. He's quick as hell, he's extremely athletic, he has good strength--and he plays for a godawful team. I think Minnesota's come to the realization that, if you're going to suck, you might as well get the young guys out there and let 'em go wild. I expect Foye's playing time to go way up--along with that of fellow productive rookie Craig Smith, who's averaging a solid 8 & 7 in just 23 minutes in his last 7 games.

With Foye's expected PT increase, look for Mike James's fantasy value to continue to sink. I think we all knew there wasn't a chance in hell his numbers would be anything like 05-06, but 11 & 4 just isn't getting it done. In his last 6 games, which included two doughnuts, he's averaging just 6 PPG. Again, with Foye's star on the rise, I just don't see James turning it around. Cut bait on this guy.

After a somewhat disappointing start to the season, Andres Nocioni is in the Bulls' starting lineup and starting to heat up. In his last 5, he's averaging 20 & 7 with 2 threes per game. The Bulls' other big wing player, Luol Deng, has been solid all year, averaging a cool 18/6/2 and shooting .545 from the floor. The goods news for the Bulls is that they've shaken off their horrendous start with back-to-back wins. The bad news is that both the wins came over the Knicks, so they don't mean anything.

Kwame Brown's unexpectedly solid play has fantasy owners in a bind over which Lakers' center to go with. I can't help you here--Bynum's clearly The Future, but it looks like Jackson's just going to go with the hot hand the rest of the year. Some nights that will be Kwame, some nights it'll be Bynum.