NOW FOR THE HARD PART

The Lakers finally made some shots, played some tough D, and ran roughshod over Houston to complete the echoing of the 2008 Celtics-Hawks series where a far less talented team takes a massive favorite to the brink because of a few bad matchups.

Which leads me to the Denver-LA series. At first glance it looks like Denver is the better team. While they were firing on all cylinders and blowing out New Orleans and Dallas, the Lakers were bumbling and stumbling against Utah and an injury-decimated Houston team. In other words, it wasn't just the result, i.e., Denver winning in fewer games; the Nuggets just looked like the better team.

But yet here we are in the conference finals and the Lakers are heavy favorites. Is everyone an idiot? Do Vegas sportsbook gamblers foolishly bet with their heart? Or is it simply because the Lakers really are the better team, but haven't looked it because they've had less favorable matchups? Or hell, maybe you think they haven't looked it because they dogged it against Houston or were overconfident, whatever, but the question is, is there some reason the Lakers will be better in this series than they have appeared to be in the previous two.

I'd say yeah. I think LA will be better than they've looked so far and I think they'll take this series. First, because LA really is the better team--those 82 games weren't for nothing. Even if you look at only the games Billups played, LA's record was much better. But second because I think some key matchups really favor the Lakers, unlike in their first two series. I'm not saying the Lakers will waltz to the Finals; I have a lot of respect for Denver and think they're big, tough, and extremely athletic--but I do think the Lakers' size and Kobe will finally wear 'em down in the end in a hard-fought 6-7 game series.

Here are the matchups I like:

Billups vs. Fisher/Farmar. Obviously Billups is much better than the Laker PGs, but the reason I like this matchup is that Billups is a bigger, slower PG who Fisher can at least sorta deal with defensively. I'd much rather Fisher go up against Billups than the insanely quick Aaron Brooks, who spent the last 7 games dribbling circles around the entire Laker defense. Billups has always had success against LA, so I don't expect him to be completely shut down by any stretch. But I also don't think he's going to score 22 a game and shoot 55% from 3 like he has in the playoffs so far, and I'm not sure Denver can beat very good teams without Billups playing like the superstar he's been thus far.

Gasol/Bynum/Odom vs. Martin/Nene/Anderson. This is tricky. This is probably the series in a nutshell. While Denver's front court is very good and very athletic and Houston after Yao's injury had a bunch of cruddy role players no one's ever heard of, I honestly think Denver is an easier matchup for LA's bigs. Gasol has never had difficulty with a defender's athleticism, or even size, it's always physical toughness that he struggles against. I've seen the Laker bigs play against Nene and Kenyon Martin many times and I've never seen them push around Gasol and Odom the way those undersized but tough-as-hell Houston bigs did. Martin has a tough guy reputation but for whatever reason Gasol has always had success against him and I don't expect things to change. Plus none of the Nugget big men are especially aggressive on offense, I don't see them hurting LA the way Luis Scola and Carl Landry did in the Houston series. Chris Anderson sorta worries me with his crazy energy and athleticism, I shudder to think of big, slow-footed Andrew Bynum trying to keep him off the offensive glass, but on the whole I think the Laker big men win this battle. The huge, ever-present caveat for the Lakers here is the health--physical and mental--of Andrew Bynum. I'm predicting he continues his recent pattern of playing well at home and not so much on the road, which is typical of young, non-superstars in the playoffs.

Kobe vs. Dahntay Jones/JR Smith and Carmelo vs. Trevor Ariza. It's weird how Carmelo has always stunk against the Lakers; that athletic and physical wing player has historically been a tough matchup for LA--Paul Pierce in last year's finals for example. Bottom line, Melo is a damn good player who's been at a sky high level all through these playoffs (27.0 ppg, .480 shooting, .447 from 3), so I expect him to break out of his funk against the Lakers and cause all sorts of problems. I don't see how Ariza can defend him, especially if Denver is making 3s and not allowing Kobe or someone to help out on him.

But as bad as Carmelo tears up the Lakers, I think Kobe will tear up Denver even worse. They just don't have anyone on the roster who can stay with him--unlike Houston with two of the best perimeter defenders in the entire league. Dahntay Jones is in the starting lineup solely because of his defense, but he's no Battier--Kobe destroys Jones every time they play. JR Smith is a surprisingly good on-ball defender but he's also a space cadet who makes all kinds of defensive mistakes and hurts the overall team D. So I like Kobe's chances of doing what he did last year, putting up big scoring numbers, shooting a high percentage, and getting to the line a lot. If it comes down to who plays better between Kobe and Carmelo, I like the Lakers' chances.

The real wild card in this matchup is Smith on offense. He can't guard Kobe, that's a given. But with his jaw-dropping offensive skills, he may be able to at least partially offset Kobe's production. You just never know what you're gonna get with young JR, he could come out and bomb for 25 a game and rain down 3s from all over the court, or he could average 12 ppg in 20 minutes and not be much of a factor. But I definitely respect and fear Smith's game. If he's on, nobody's going to stop him, including Kobe.

Bottom line, the Lakers sorta own this team. I know they're different--very different--with Billups at the helm instead of The Black Hole. But they still have the same individual players that individual Lakers have a history of beating up on. Billups doesn't make Kenyon Martin defend Gasol in the post any better, y'know? So while I'll acknowledge the possibility that Billups might make the difference, I still like enough matchups here to think LA will take it in a hard-fought series and move on to the finals.

I'll try to post something about the East later this week, but for now I'll predict Cleveland wins in 5 or 6, but gets pushed a hell of a lot more than they have thus far.

SO WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE LAKERS

I'm sure you all want to know what I think about the Jekyll/Hyde Lakers, so here goes:

1. You gotta give it up. Once Yao went down, I, like everyone else, thought the Lakers would breeze, even after my "the Lakers honestly aren't that good" post. But even if you think the Lakers are dogging it, are overconfident, are just playing shitty, whatever, you have to give the Rockets a ton of credit--they're playing out of their minds right now. Aaron Brooks has been phenomenal, Luis Scola has outplayed Pau Gasol, Ron Artest is hitting every big jumpshot his team needs, Battier is playing his usual great D on Kobe, and they're getting excellent bench production from the underrated Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Von Wafer. If you think this series is just about the way the Lakers are playing, you're not giving these guys nearly enough credit.

2. So are the Lakers dogging it? I honestly don't think so, and you know I'm their biggest critic. I think it's almost the opposite--they're playing as tight as I've ever seen them play. I can see thinking they're playing stupid, but I don't agree that they're lazy or overconfident. If anything they're individually trying to do too much. And I think they're plenty respectful of this team, if not scared shitless. It's one thing to miss a bunch of shots, especially against a damn good defensive team, but the turnovers and defensive mistakes are what's really killing them. To clarify, I'm not just talking about sucky defense, which the Lakers are prone to do because, as discussed previously, they just don't have a lot of good defensive players. I'm talking about defensive mistakes, particularly where someone (Kobe, Ariza, Odom, etc.) are trying to freelance too much and not trusting their teammates to do their job. That's the sign of a tight team, the sign of a team that's playing scared. Same with the turnovers, Laker players are trying to make plays they'd never try to make in a regular season game. They're feeling the pressure, and it shows. Everyone's trying to win the game singlehandedly, trying to force stuff that's not there, trying to do too much, taking dumb risks instead of trusting the offense, trusting the defense, and trusting their teammates. 

3. That said, christ Pau Gasol is a terrible defensive player. He's honestly one of the worst "good player" defenders in the entire league. Let this series put to rest once and for all the idea that he's not bad at sticking with his man, and is just poor at playing help defense. He's terrible at both. He's getting his ass kicked alternately by Luis Scola and Carl Landry--two damn solid players to be sure, but they're not Amare and Bosh, y'know? Odom is a disaster too, it's shocking how easily Scola backs him down in the post. I mean, they're the same size, it's just that Scola is way, way stronger. And tougher. 

Odom and Gasol are playing hard, as hard as they can--they're just soft. And I don't know exactly what I mean by that. They're physically weak for NBA big men, but it's also a mind set; they're both kinda passive players, they don't have that tough guy aggressiveness that a Scola or Artest has. I'm not sure that's the character flaw everyone makes it out to be; maybe it's something ingrained, something you can't do anything about, like being 6'6 instead of 6'10 or not being as quick as (that fucking maggot) Aaron Brooks. Or maybe they're just pussies. I don't know. I haven't fully decided yet. But whereas you can count on Gasol and Odom to destroy finesse front courts, like Denver's last year or New Orleans', they have a lot of problems with tough guy teams like Boston, Utah and Houston. 

4. Another of LA's biggest problems is that they're a pretty crappy shooting team. I'm surprised nobody is talking about this, they really don't have many outside threats. With Derek Fisher spazzing out (1-14 from three in the series), Kobe less than spectacular, and Sasha Vujacic continuing his season-long slump (shooting a horrific 24% from the floor in the playoffs), the Lakers simply don't have many outside shooting options. That of course lets teams clog the middle against Gasol, Odom and Kobe on penetration, and LA doesn't have an answer for it. I said at the time of the Vladimir Radmanovic trade/cost-cutting dump that it was very risky, and I think Buss and Kupchak are kicking themselves in the balls right now. They could really, really use Vladdy popping 3s in the corner. You win with superstars in the NBA playoffs, but here's the thing--you might not need your role players to make a bunch of plays, but you need them to make the opponent play you honest. Your role players enable your stars to make the plays that win you games. A guy like Radmanovic can be helpful just literally standing in the corner ready to shoot. 

5. The only rational NBA officiating conspiracy theory is the one that says the NBA assigns certain refs to certain games with an agenda in mind. If you think the league does more than that, stop reading and don't ever come to this blog again, you're too stupid to take up eyespace here. FWIW I don't think the NBA does anything whatsoever with its officials, but I'll allow that the 'assignment theory' has a .0001% chance of being true, unlike the more fanciful ones (save for out-and-out game-fixing, but I'm talking about league-office type conspiracies). But this series has provided some good counterevidence--the Rockets got Steve Javie in LA for Game 5, considered the best official in the league, the one guy out there where you know you're going to get a fair shake on the road. Then they got Mark Wunderlich in Game 6 in Houston, the biggest homer ref in the entire league outside of Ken Mauer. I think there were some shitty calls in both games, but the officiating was more or less even. I don't think it's had a real impact in any of the games.

That goes for most of these playoffs too, IMO. I think that no-call on Antoine Wright in the Denver-Dallas series was a good one, I don't care what the asinine, running-scared NBA league office thought. It was a little bump--if you call that same amount of contact in a one-point game and award the guy free throws, it's an atrocious call for the ages. So maybe you think the refs should've taken the game situation into account. I disagree, but here's the thing: after Wright bumps Carmelo, he immediately puts his hands up in the air, the typical "I-didn't-do-it!" move. So what the hell is the ref supposed to think? If you want to intentionally foul, (a) actually foul the guy, and foul him hard--it has to actually be a foul that they would call with 3 seconds left on the clock, not a little nudge; and (b) let the goddamn ref know you're trying to foul, by words and/or actions. You do that, he'll give you the call. Instead Wright retardedly throws his hands up in the air--OK, so it looks to me like you didn't want the call, so fuck you. Learn how to play the game. Use your head. 

That the NBA apologized for that call was yet another joke in this ongoing farce. The refs are doing fine--or good enough, at least. Leave 'em alone, let them do their job, don't hang them out to dry. Yes, NBA playoff officiating is a big problem, but the league with its asinine suspensions and apologies is making it fifty times worse, that's the legacy of David Stern.

6. So what's gonna happen Sunday? Fuck man, I just don't know. I suspect a solid Laker win, but with their cruddy shooting I don't think there are any guarantees. I wouldn't bet Houston with the points, but I think the money line might be a good bet--they have a better chance to win than you think. 

PLAYOFF THOUGHTS

1. Cleveland is clearly the best team in the league, and it's not even close. But the best team doesn't always win. I don't think Boston or Orlando has a prayer without Garnett/Nelson, but maybe the Lakers do--if they make it--but man, it won't be easy. Watching Ron Artest tear up Trevor Ariza makes me very, very concerned about what LBJ would do. The Lakers are a terrible help-defense team so if one guy is getting his ass kicked, it spells trouble. And if Lebron James is on the court, one of your defenders is going to be getting his ass kicked. BTW, Lebron is averaging 31.5-9.7-6.3 for the playoffs so far, and shooting .541 from the floor. The Cavs have won all 6 of their playoff games by double digits, and their average margin of victory is just under 18.

2. As I've said all year long, the Lakers aren't a great team without a healthy and confident Andrew Bynum. There's this sense that the Lakers can and will "turn it on" when they need to, but these aren't the Shaq Lakers where all it took to go from very good to great was the Big Fella turning it up a notch. This team is focused, this team plays hard--it's just that they're a step below greatness, and teams that are below 'great' sometimes lose to teams that are just pretty good.

The Lakers don't defend poorly because they're not taking teams seriously, or because they lack heart, or focus--they defend poorly because they defend poorly. Just like Mark Madsen sucks because he sucks. The Lakers defend poorly because they have multiple key players who aren't very talented at playing defense--Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum (in present condition), Luke Walton, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic. And they're not going to get any better at it between now and the NBA Finals.

This team is what it is, and people who think they're going to press a magic button and turn it on are going to be disappointed. This reminds me of 2003 when the Lakers stumbled through the regular season, struggled through a first round playoff series, and everyone thought they'd just ramp it up at the end--and then everyone was shocked when they got bitch-slapped by the Spurs in the second round. LA didn't--and couldn't--"ramp it up", they were the same less-than-great team they had been all year long. I don't know why sports fans always want to make athletic competition into a morality play. Most players on most teams in the NBA playoffs are playing their asses off and giving everything they can give, and when an NBA team loses it's almost always because the other team was more talented--or the other team got hot--not because the opponent "wanted it more".

That's not to say that the Lakers absolutely can't play with Cleveland. I honestly don't know if they can or not. Basketball is a game of matchups, each series is vastly different. The transitive property falls apart in basketball; just because LA is struggling against Houston doesn't necessarily mean they'll get crushed by Cleveland. But make no mistake, they are the superior team. I've seen enough.

3. And by no means am I conceding the West to the Lakers, I think they could absolutely stumble against either Houston or Denver--who looks talented, deep, and supremely athletic. I think LA will end up winning both series, but it's hardly a sure thing. I can't believe how good the Nuggets are now, this is an entirely different team from the one LA ran off the court last year. They're flat out better defensively with Chris Anderson/Nene instead of Marcus Camby, Billups adds so much to the team on both ends of the court, and the freakishly talented but wildly inconsistent JR Smith is in one of his 'holy shit' phases at just the right time. And Carmelo is playing like a real superstar, he's not getting enough credit for how good this team is playing. Again, I'm worried about what Carmelo would do to Trevor Ariza, but at least they don't have a hyper quick PG to torch Derek Fisher all night long. Billups is obviously a better player than Aaron Brooks of the Rockets, but you go back to the importance of matchups in basketball--with the Lakers' particular collection of talent they can deal OK with Billups and have no answer for Brooks.

So that's about it, I'll predict Cleveland finishes the sweep of Atlanta and then destroys Boston in the conference finals, maybe a 4-1 series. I'll take the Lakers over Houston in 6 and then Denver in 7. Then...who the fuck knows. If I'm a betting man, and I am, I'm putting my money down on Cleveland. But I think they're 60/40 favorites, not 90/10. The Lakers could conceivably pull off the upset as is, and they have a huge wild card in Andrew Bynum. Chances are he won't be the same player until next year, but if they could just get him back into the swing of things defensively, that could make all the difference--I sure as hell know Pau Gasol won't be posing any challenges to Lebron on his way to the rim. That could get real ugly.

GREG ODEN: NEEDS WORK

I've noticed something. Greg Oden is great at "being a giant dude", but he's very, very poor at "playing basketball". Kwame Brown now has a challenger for "Worst Hands In The NBA". Next rebound off the face wins.

Andrew Bynum is so far ahead of this guy it's not even a conversation. I'm not sure I'd trade Andris Biedrins for him straight up. In fact I wouldn't--honest to god. Biedrins, at 22, is averaging 16.8 ppg, 13.5 rpg, and 1.5 blocks--it'll be years before Greg Oden can score 17 a game.

I know, I know, he's coming off a major injury, he's never played an NBA game in his life, etc., etc. That's true, but it doesn't change the fact that he has no skills whatsoever--he literally doesn't know what to do with the ball when he has it. It reminds me of Josh Moore, this giant 7 foot reject who played at Michigan and looked as if he'd never seen the sport of basketball before he first came onto the court for that particular game you were watching.

It also doesn't change the fact that he has terrible, horrible hands. This is no small thing, good hands are one of the most underrated aspects of being a successful big men. Shaq had the greatest hands of anyone who ever played. Tim Duncan has great hands, as did Hakeem and David Robinson. Andrew Bynum has a sweet pair of mitts, and so forth. I don't know if there's ever been a successful big man who had hands as bad as what Oden's showed so far this year. He seriously reminds me of Kwame Brown, who may well have been a decent player if not for this one major shortcoming.

AND it doesn't change the fact that he's the worst conditioned player in the NBA. You might chalk this up to the year of rehab he just went through, and so would I--if I hadn't noticed the exact same shocking lack of fitness in his year at Ohio State. I watched the game tonight and--I swear to god--he was huffing and puffing, grabbing his man, and cheating down the court Shaq-style within *6* minutes of the start of the game! Six fucking minutes! This guy is in unbelievably bad shape, and he was as an 18-year-old at OSU too. This is a problem. It's a really big problem. He may have a serious medical issue, and whether it's small lung capacity or chronic laziness syndrome, either one is a killer of promising big men.

I know, it only makes sense to watch and wait at this point, I'm not saying I'd write the kid off, not by a long shot. He's so goddamn big, and so goddamn athletic, and so goddamn strong that he almost has no chance of outright failure. At a minimum he'll be a Tyson Chandler type, getting 10-12 ppg on put-backs and lobs, along with controlling the boards and the lane, and that's a valuable player to have around. And there's a good chance he'll grow up the way Bynum did and get his ass into the gym in the offseason once in a while, and work on his fitness and his game the way even the greatest NBA athletes need to if they ever want to be all-star caliber players.

But the first seeds of doubt are creeping in for me. The hands thing in particular is making me wonder. I've seen so many balls go off his hands, would-be rebounds, passes for would-be dunks, etc. If you don't have a killer skill game, you better make the most of your athletic gifts and you can't do that as a big man if you aren't excellent at securing the ball. Maybe it's just the speed of the game right now, he's having trouble adjusting to the skill, athleticism and speed of the NBA and it's affecting him in all areas of the game. The rebound comes off the rim, everyone's grabbing at it, guys are holding your jersey, pushing you in the back, etc. You get a nice pass and you put the ball on the floor to gather yourself up for a monster dunk, and some little fucker is swatting it out of your hands. The NBA in 2008 is a fast, fast game, and Oden is playing George Mikan speed right now. I guess that's probably the most likely explanation, that he just needs to get used to this level of play, but I've gone from a full blown Oden bandwagoner to someone who's real, real happy to have Andrew Bynum on his team.

I hope he makes it, he seems like a really nice guy, and interesting too, in a league full of cliche-spewing bores. But brother, he needs some work. He needs a lot of work. If I were a Portland fan, I'd be starting to worry the tiniest bit.

PISTONS STATUS REPORT

I'm starting to get a bad feeling about the Iverson trade. The Pistons lost by 20 to the 2-9 Minnesota Timberwolves today, bringing their record to 4-5 since the trade. This was the 4th double figure loss of the 5 losses.

But I don't want to overreact to a couple of crappy shooting games (by everyone, not just AI)--they had plenty of those games with Billups too, and every jumpshooting team looks awful when 2-3 of the main guys go cold. And this trade wasn't meant for the regular season, I'm prepared for the team to win fewer games than usual and we'll see what AI can do against Cleveland and Boston in the playoffs.

Furthermore, they've played a brutal schedule in this stretch. Today's game was a terrible loss, and they also lost @New Jersey in their first game with AI, but the other losses were more understandable: @Boston, @Phoenix and home to Boston. Plus they've beaten the Lakers in LA and Cleveland at home, two impressive wins.

One area where I definitely think they're down and are not gonna get it back is perimeter defense. Iverson gets a lot of steals, 2 per game since he got to Detroit, but his man defense isn't nearly as good as Billups'. Look at the opposing PG performances in their 5 losses:

Devin Harris 38 pts
Rajon Rondo 13 pts & 5 ass
Steve Nash 17 & 7
Rondo 18 & 8
Randy Foye 25 & 14

Iverson needs to make up for that defensive deficit by being a solid upgrade over Billups on the offensive end, and so far he hasn't done it. Bottom line, Iverson has played poorly since he got to Detroit, he was better in Denver and will probably begin playing better for the Pistons soon. His jumper hasn't been falling, his turnover rate is up, he's taking too many shots (at 15 a game) and he's having trouble deciding when to push for his own shot and when to create for his teammates. And his teammates are having trouble knowing when to defer to AI and when to force their own offense. Those are the kind of things that can be easily improved upon with time. I still expect the team to bounce back and win 50-55 games, but I do acknowledge there's a small chance this trade results in outright disaster. And if it does, well, the other big reason the deal was made was to clear up cap space for the 2010 class of Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Amare/Joe Johnson, so at least there's that potential quick fix hanging out there.

The one really disturbing thing to me about this team is that not only hasn't Rodney Stuckey made the big leap forward I was expecting, he's actually regressed a bit from where he was late last year and in the playoffs. He still can't hit a goddamn jumper--I thought he'd make a huge improvement there--and he's suddenly turning the ball over like crazy. That was one of his best qualities a year ago, he really took good care of the ball for a rookie guard. This year he's turning it over 4.0 times per 36 minutes, that's atrocious. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.3:1, which is awful for even a pseudo-PG.

Stuckey was shaky in the early season last year too, but that was after coming back from injury. I guess it's only been 12 games, but I expected a breakout year from him and frankly so far he's been easily outplayed by journeyman Will Bynum. Combine that with Amir Johnson's demotion to the bench--for Kwame Brown--and Jason Maxiell averaging just 6 & 4 thus far, and this hasn't been the start Joe Dumars wanted for his young guns.

EARLY SEASON TRENDS

The Positive

The Lakers are really, really, really good. I know everyone wants to downplay their team's chances when they're clearly quite good, you don't want to let yourself believe, but it's pretty hard to deny that this Lakers team is friggin' loaded. They were already a great offensive team, and I suspected they'd make a big jump in defense with the return of Andrew Bynum--potentially a top 5 defensive center in the league--but I didn't expect the improvement to be quite so dramatic. I guess we'll see if LA can keep up the defensive intensity--and it bears mention that they've played a horrible schedule to date--but so far, so good. If they keep playing like this, and stay healthy, they could make a run at a mid- to high-60s win total.

One underrated contributor to their defensive surge is Trevor Ariza. I said last year that Bynum's obviously more important injury overshadowed what Ariza's loss meant to the team. He gives them much needed athleticism at the wing spot, plus another lockdown defender who can help out Kobe on the perimeter. The Lakers are flat out better with Ariza in the game instead of Lamar Odom, and it's because they already have people who can rebound, score and handle the ball; what they need is an active defender, and Ariza is playing out of his mind right now.

Another guy coming on fast is Jordan Farmar. If he played for practically any other team in the league he'd be averaging about 17 & 8 right now, he's that good. He's a role player on the Lakers, but an extremely important one. Even as good as LA has been in the early going, they've frequently needed the surge of energy Farmar brings to the table.

OK, enough about the Lakers. Other teams looking good are Boston (doy) and Atlanta (wha?). I don't know if Atlanta can keep it up, but they're killing it right now. At 5-0 they're the league's only other undefeated team with the Lakers, and they've notched quality wins @ Orlando, @ New Orleans in a shocker, and home against Toronto & Philly. They're doing it with defense in the early going, giving up just 85.8 points per game (second only to, astonishingly enough, the Lakers). Joe Johnson is continuing his torrid play from last year after they acquired Bibby, averaging 25 ppg on 50+% shooting. Josh Smith is struggling on offense at just 12 ppg, but is the lynchpin of the team's athletic, smothering defense. Of course now he's out for a month, so we'll see what happens to that D while he's gone. Al Horford is going to really need to pick up his game to make up for the loss.

Another group coming out of the gate strong is the 2008 rookie class. Not expected to set the world on fire before the season started, they suddenly have about 10 guys who look fantastic in the early going. Derrick Rose isn't putting up big assist numbers, but 17.7 ppg on .458 shooting is fantastic for a 20-year-old rookie PG. Michael Beasley looks dominant and times and lost at others, but is so far averaging a respectable 16 & 6. OJ Mayo is the real surprise. I thought he'd put up big points (and he is, at 19.3 per), but thought his shooting percentage would be atrocious. But he's at a solid .441 thus far, and shooting a sparkling .455 from the 3-point line. I suspect his shot is going to stop falling at that rate, but he's definitely piqued my interest with his early play. That Rudy Gay-OJ Mayo-Marc Gasol trio isn't a bad core to build around. If Mike Conley ever gets his shit together, Memphis could be an up-and-comer.

Speaking of the younger Gasol brother, the rookie class features a trio of big men putting up solid numbers: Marc Gasol at 10 & 9, Kevin Love earning his way into Minnesota's starting lineup with 10 & 7, and Jason Thompson, an athletic, skilled PF in Sacramento, averaging 11 & 6 in just 21 minutes and looking like a major steal.

But my early prediction for ROY is Rudy Fernandez, who's looking very comfortable in Portland a lot soooner than people thought he'd be. He's averaging a respectable 14-3-2 in just 27 minutes, with sparkling shooting percentages--.464/.424/.941--but I think he's only scratching the surface of what he can do. I expect Portland to go more and more to the Roy-Fernandez backcourt in crunch time, that gives them two big, athletic, and skilled guards who can handle and shoot--that's a tough matchup.

Lastly, some veterans coming out of the gate strong...Bosh is loving having Jermaine O'Neal around to draw defensive attention, he's putting up almost 27 per game (at .537 shooting) in Toronto's first 6 games. Dwyane Wade, as predicted, looks completely healthy and once against physically dominant. He's averaging an absurd 26-6.5-8 with almost 3 steals and 2 blocks per game, but he's also back to his one bad habit of playing out of control occasionally--his 4 turnovers per game lead the league. And Amare Stoudemire is, simply put, the most dominant offensive force in the game. You now have to double team him from the second he has the ball, because he can overpower anyone, drive on anyone, and shoots the jumper as sweet as any big man in the league. Demonstrating what a great shooter he's become, Amare is shooting 87% on 11 FTA per game in Phoenix's first 7 games. He's also averaging 26-9-3, and shooting an obscene .644 from the floor. That number doesn't even make sense.

The Negative

The Spurs were already in trouble without Manu Ginobili, they've never been good with any of the Big 3 hurt, but now Tony Parker is out for a month too, and the team is floundering. They're 1-4 in their first 5, and now face the very real possibility that by the time Parker & Ginobili are healthy, they'll have dug too big of a hole to climb out of. What's amazing is their defense has been atrocious, something they've always been able to fall back on when struggling with injuries. Bruce Bowen, key along with Duncan to that killer defense, may be showing his age, he's only playing 20 minutes a game in the first 5. I'm pretty excited about his demise, so I may be jumping the gun a little. Time will tell if San Antonio gets it back--and gets healthy--in time to make a playoff spot run.

The 76ers have been one of the league's biggest disappointments, Elton Brand hasn't had quite the impact they were hoping for. I've watched a couple of their games and I'm convinced it's simply growing pains, a new team learning how to work with each other. Brand isn't getting the high post touches he normally gets and Andre Iguodala is really struggling with the lane clogged up by Brand & Dalembert, but I think these are issues that can be cleared up with time. Andre Miller is the perfect smart, veteran PG who can make this all work, but it may take another month before they're hitting on all cylinders. The upside of their initial awkwardness is the way 20-year-old SF Thaddeus Young has stepped up; he's actually leading the team in scoring at 16.5 PPG, and has added a very strong jumpshot (.478 from three!) to go with his excellent slasher game. I don't expect him to keep up those numbers, but Philly definitely has a keeper in Young, he can really play.

I suppose Pistons fans aren't feeling great about the Iverson trade, but I've watched both losses that he played in and the Pistons--a jumpshooting team that was always prone to those ugly games where nobody's shot is falling--have gotten a lot of shots that they usually make. This move wasn't made for the regular season anyway, and I suspect they may even fall off of last year's pace by a few games--but the bottom line on this trade won't be known until playoff time rolls around. The Pistons have struggled against the great Eastern defensive teams, Boston and Cleveland, and Iverson may be able to create his own shot well enough to give the team a better chance than they had with Billups. We'll see--but not for a while.

But I sorta like the trade more from Denver's perspective, I think this has a chance of really working out well. Philadelphia got a lot better two years ago when they traded Iverson and got a more traditional point in Andre Miller, this move could work out similarly for Denver. They have scorers--Carmelo, JR Smith, Linas Kleiza--adding Billups may be the glue they need to make this into a coherent team. Also one thing I've noted from watching the Pistons games: Iverson can still play some D, but he's not as strong as Chauncey. I think the Pistons are really giving up some defense, and the Nuggets are getting a much needed improvement. The Nuggets are still one Nene (averaging a strong 16 & 9 so far) injury away from being atrocious, but if they can miraculously stay healthy they could keep that last playoff spot they grabbed last year.

OPENING DAY THOUGHTS

I see as many as 7 teams that can win the championship this season. They fall into 3 tiers:

Teams that can win right now, they require nothing further

1. Lakers. The favorite to win the NBA championship this year, but not a runaway favorite. They still have health questions with Bynum, chemistry issues with Bynum/Gasol/Odom, a concern that their role players (Vujacic, Fisher, Radmanovic, Farmar) played over their heads last year and are going to come back down to earth, and one last question mark that you don't hear very much about--Kobe's noticeable decline over the last two seasons. Don't get me wrong, he's still one of the best players in the league, but he's not as good as he was 2-3 years ago, and he's at an age (especially considering the huge number of games he's played for his gae) where decline typically happens. Fortunately, if everything else goes right--that is, if Andrew Bynum approaches anywhere near what he was when he got injured last year, and all signs are positive so far--they don't need the Kobe from 05-06 in order to win.

2. Boston. Their big three is another year older and they lost a key player from a thin bench in James Posey, but they also have upside with their young players--Rondo, who I absolutely love, along with Perkins, Powe and Davis. I expect them to once again be utterly dominant on the defensive end, and with enough offensive fire power to at least win the East.

3. New Orleans. There honestly aren't a lot of question marks here. They're young, they're talented, they're deeper than last year (adding James Posey), and they're led by Chris Paul, who's well on his way to joining the all-time greats. The only thing I can see here is that they had remarkably good health last year, with practically every important player logging 75+ games. That's not a typical NBA season. Maybe they'll go another year largely unscathed, but if not we'll see how the young Hornets deal with a little adversity.

Teams that can win it with just one thing going right:

4. Utah. Utah is another good, young, deep team, but they have one gaping weakness that the Hornets and Lakers don't: terrible interior defense. That's what happens when you start Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. But they're a damn good offensive team, and their leader, Deron Williams, may well make the jump to superstardom this year. Nobody's going to want a piece of these guys in the playoffs.

5. Detroit. Unless Joe Dumars makes a significant move during the season, which could certainly happen (how do you feel about Vince Carter? Big risk, big reward), the potential for the Pistons to challenge the top tier lies with their three young guys--Rodney Stuckey, Amir Johnson, and Jason Maxiell. Flip Saunders was fired for not playing these three enough, so I'm assuming new coach Michael Curry will give them every chance to do their thing. Now what that thing is is the question. Is Stuckey going to remain a solid rotation player, like last year, or is he ready to essentially be a third starter and put up 15 ppg? Is Amir Johnson in over his head as a starter or can he give the team some much needed athleticism up front and get 8-9 boards and monster blocks? And if Johnson's not ready to start, is Maxiell ready to jump in? In short, I don't know. I'm very high on these guys, but I just don't know if this is the year. What I do know is this: if they don't get major production out of these three, they're not going to beat the Celtics in the playoffs, and might not be able to beat a solidly improved Cleveland and Orlando (not to mention potential giant Philadlephia).

Teams that need to stay healthy but probably won't

6. Houston. Maybe they belong in the second tier because they've proven they can win without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, and they've now added Ron Artest to what was already one of the league's best defenses. Here's the thing though, I think they played way over their heads and I'm not sure their chances are as simple as taking last year's win total and adding the value of Ron Artest to it. If they can stay healthy, they'll be monsters, as good as anyone in the league. But if Yao or McGrady gets injured again, and at least one probably will, I think the Rockets could be looking at major disappointment.

7. San Antonio. Like I said last year, I'm not counting these guys out until Tim goddamn Duncan retires. They didn't do much to improve, but then this is a team that finished a game out in the West and beat red-hot New Orleans in the conference semis. They were outclassed by the Lakers in the conference finals, but they were also playing with a noticeably dinged-up Manu Ginobili. But that's the problem, there's a good chance that at some point during the playoff grind, they're going to have Duncan, Ginobili or Parker dinged up, and they flat out can't beat the best teams in the league when that happens.