NOW FOR THE HARD PART

The Lakers finally made some shots, played some tough D, and ran roughshod over Houston to complete the echoing of the 2008 Celtics-Hawks series where a far less talented team takes a massive favorite to the brink because of a few bad matchups.

Which leads me to the Denver-LA series. At first glance it looks like Denver is the better team. While they were firing on all cylinders and blowing out New Orleans and Dallas, the Lakers were bumbling and stumbling against Utah and an injury-decimated Houston team. In other words, it wasn't just the result, i.e., Denver winning in fewer games; the Nuggets just looked like the better team.

But yet here we are in the conference finals and the Lakers are heavy favorites. Is everyone an idiot? Do Vegas sportsbook gamblers foolishly bet with their heart? Or is it simply because the Lakers really are the better team, but haven't looked it because they've had less favorable matchups? Or hell, maybe you think they haven't looked it because they dogged it against Houston or were overconfident, whatever, but the question is, is there some reason the Lakers will be better in this series than they have appeared to be in the previous two.

I'd say yeah. I think LA will be better than they've looked so far and I think they'll take this series. First, because LA really is the better team--those 82 games weren't for nothing. Even if you look at only the games Billups played, LA's record was much better. But second because I think some key matchups really favor the Lakers, unlike in their first two series. I'm not saying the Lakers will waltz to the Finals; I have a lot of respect for Denver and think they're big, tough, and extremely athletic--but I do think the Lakers' size and Kobe will finally wear 'em down in the end in a hard-fought 6-7 game series.

Here are the matchups I like:

Billups vs. Fisher/Farmar. Obviously Billups is much better than the Laker PGs, but the reason I like this matchup is that Billups is a bigger, slower PG who Fisher can at least sorta deal with defensively. I'd much rather Fisher go up against Billups than the insanely quick Aaron Brooks, who spent the last 7 games dribbling circles around the entire Laker defense. Billups has always had success against LA, so I don't expect him to be completely shut down by any stretch. But I also don't think he's going to score 22 a game and shoot 55% from 3 like he has in the playoffs so far, and I'm not sure Denver can beat very good teams without Billups playing like the superstar he's been thus far.

Gasol/Bynum/Odom vs. Martin/Nene/Anderson. This is tricky. This is probably the series in a nutshell. While Denver's front court is very good and very athletic and Houston after Yao's injury had a bunch of cruddy role players no one's ever heard of, I honestly think Denver is an easier matchup for LA's bigs. Gasol has never had difficulty with a defender's athleticism, or even size, it's always physical toughness that he struggles against. I've seen the Laker bigs play against Nene and Kenyon Martin many times and I've never seen them push around Gasol and Odom the way those undersized but tough-as-hell Houston bigs did. Martin has a tough guy reputation but for whatever reason Gasol has always had success against him and I don't expect things to change. Plus none of the Nugget big men are especially aggressive on offense, I don't see them hurting LA the way Luis Scola and Carl Landry did in the Houston series. Chris Anderson sorta worries me with his crazy energy and athleticism, I shudder to think of big, slow-footed Andrew Bynum trying to keep him off the offensive glass, but on the whole I think the Laker big men win this battle. The huge, ever-present caveat for the Lakers here is the health--physical and mental--of Andrew Bynum. I'm predicting he continues his recent pattern of playing well at home and not so much on the road, which is typical of young, non-superstars in the playoffs.

Kobe vs. Dahntay Jones/JR Smith and Carmelo vs. Trevor Ariza. It's weird how Carmelo has always stunk against the Lakers; that athletic and physical wing player has historically been a tough matchup for LA--Paul Pierce in last year's finals for example. Bottom line, Melo is a damn good player who's been at a sky high level all through these playoffs (27.0 ppg, .480 shooting, .447 from 3), so I expect him to break out of his funk against the Lakers and cause all sorts of problems. I don't see how Ariza can defend him, especially if Denver is making 3s and not allowing Kobe or someone to help out on him.

But as bad as Carmelo tears up the Lakers, I think Kobe will tear up Denver even worse. They just don't have anyone on the roster who can stay with him--unlike Houston with two of the best perimeter defenders in the entire league. Dahntay Jones is in the starting lineup solely because of his defense, but he's no Battier--Kobe destroys Jones every time they play. JR Smith is a surprisingly good on-ball defender but he's also a space cadet who makes all kinds of defensive mistakes and hurts the overall team D. So I like Kobe's chances of doing what he did last year, putting up big scoring numbers, shooting a high percentage, and getting to the line a lot. If it comes down to who plays better between Kobe and Carmelo, I like the Lakers' chances.

The real wild card in this matchup is Smith on offense. He can't guard Kobe, that's a given. But with his jaw-dropping offensive skills, he may be able to at least partially offset Kobe's production. You just never know what you're gonna get with young JR, he could come out and bomb for 25 a game and rain down 3s from all over the court, or he could average 12 ppg in 20 minutes and not be much of a factor. But I definitely respect and fear Smith's game. If he's on, nobody's going to stop him, including Kobe.

Bottom line, the Lakers sorta own this team. I know they're different--very different--with Billups at the helm instead of The Black Hole. But they still have the same individual players that individual Lakers have a history of beating up on. Billups doesn't make Kenyon Martin defend Gasol in the post any better, y'know? So while I'll acknowledge the possibility that Billups might make the difference, I still like enough matchups here to think LA will take it in a hard-fought series and move on to the finals.

I'll try to post something about the East later this week, but for now I'll predict Cleveland wins in 5 or 6, but gets pushed a hell of a lot more than they have thus far.

SO WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE LAKERS

I'm sure you all want to know what I think about the Jekyll/Hyde Lakers, so here goes:

1. You gotta give it up. Once Yao went down, I, like everyone else, thought the Lakers would breeze, even after my "the Lakers honestly aren't that good" post. But even if you think the Lakers are dogging it, are overconfident, are just playing shitty, whatever, you have to give the Rockets a ton of credit--they're playing out of their minds right now. Aaron Brooks has been phenomenal, Luis Scola has outplayed Pau Gasol, Ron Artest is hitting every big jumpshot his team needs, Battier is playing his usual great D on Kobe, and they're getting excellent bench production from the underrated Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Von Wafer. If you think this series is just about the way the Lakers are playing, you're not giving these guys nearly enough credit.

2. So are the Lakers dogging it? I honestly don't think so, and you know I'm their biggest critic. I think it's almost the opposite--they're playing as tight as I've ever seen them play. I can see thinking they're playing stupid, but I don't agree that they're lazy or overconfident. If anything they're individually trying to do too much. And I think they're plenty respectful of this team, if not scared shitless. It's one thing to miss a bunch of shots, especially against a damn good defensive team, but the turnovers and defensive mistakes are what's really killing them. To clarify, I'm not just talking about sucky defense, which the Lakers are prone to do because, as discussed previously, they just don't have a lot of good defensive players. I'm talking about defensive mistakes, particularly where someone (Kobe, Ariza, Odom, etc.) are trying to freelance too much and not trusting their teammates to do their job. That's the sign of a tight team, the sign of a team that's playing scared. Same with the turnovers, Laker players are trying to make plays they'd never try to make in a regular season game. They're feeling the pressure, and it shows. Everyone's trying to win the game singlehandedly, trying to force stuff that's not there, trying to do too much, taking dumb risks instead of trusting the offense, trusting the defense, and trusting their teammates. 

3. That said, christ Pau Gasol is a terrible defensive player. He's honestly one of the worst "good player" defenders in the entire league. Let this series put to rest once and for all the idea that he's not bad at sticking with his man, and is just poor at playing help defense. He's terrible at both. He's getting his ass kicked alternately by Luis Scola and Carl Landry--two damn solid players to be sure, but they're not Amare and Bosh, y'know? Odom is a disaster too, it's shocking how easily Scola backs him down in the post. I mean, they're the same size, it's just that Scola is way, way stronger. And tougher. 

Odom and Gasol are playing hard, as hard as they can--they're just soft. And I don't know exactly what I mean by that. They're physically weak for NBA big men, but it's also a mind set; they're both kinda passive players, they don't have that tough guy aggressiveness that a Scola or Artest has. I'm not sure that's the character flaw everyone makes it out to be; maybe it's something ingrained, something you can't do anything about, like being 6'6 instead of 6'10 or not being as quick as (that fucking maggot) Aaron Brooks. Or maybe they're just pussies. I don't know. I haven't fully decided yet. But whereas you can count on Gasol and Odom to destroy finesse front courts, like Denver's last year or New Orleans', they have a lot of problems with tough guy teams like Boston, Utah and Houston. 

4. Another of LA's biggest problems is that they're a pretty crappy shooting team. I'm surprised nobody is talking about this, they really don't have many outside threats. With Derek Fisher spazzing out (1-14 from three in the series), Kobe less than spectacular, and Sasha Vujacic continuing his season-long slump (shooting a horrific 24% from the floor in the playoffs), the Lakers simply don't have many outside shooting options. That of course lets teams clog the middle against Gasol, Odom and Kobe on penetration, and LA doesn't have an answer for it. I said at the time of the Vladimir Radmanovic trade/cost-cutting dump that it was very risky, and I think Buss and Kupchak are kicking themselves in the balls right now. They could really, really use Vladdy popping 3s in the corner. You win with superstars in the NBA playoffs, but here's the thing--you might not need your role players to make a bunch of plays, but you need them to make the opponent play you honest. Your role players enable your stars to make the plays that win you games. A guy like Radmanovic can be helpful just literally standing in the corner ready to shoot. 

5. The only rational NBA officiating conspiracy theory is the one that says the NBA assigns certain refs to certain games with an agenda in mind. If you think the league does more than that, stop reading and don't ever come to this blog again, you're too stupid to take up eyespace here. FWIW I don't think the NBA does anything whatsoever with its officials, but I'll allow that the 'assignment theory' has a .0001% chance of being true, unlike the more fanciful ones (save for out-and-out game-fixing, but I'm talking about league-office type conspiracies). But this series has provided some good counterevidence--the Rockets got Steve Javie in LA for Game 5, considered the best official in the league, the one guy out there where you know you're going to get a fair shake on the road. Then they got Mark Wunderlich in Game 6 in Houston, the biggest homer ref in the entire league outside of Ken Mauer. I think there were some shitty calls in both games, but the officiating was more or less even. I don't think it's had a real impact in any of the games.

That goes for most of these playoffs too, IMO. I think that no-call on Antoine Wright in the Denver-Dallas series was a good one, I don't care what the asinine, running-scared NBA league office thought. It was a little bump--if you call that same amount of contact in a one-point game and award the guy free throws, it's an atrocious call for the ages. So maybe you think the refs should've taken the game situation into account. I disagree, but here's the thing: after Wright bumps Carmelo, he immediately puts his hands up in the air, the typical "I-didn't-do-it!" move. So what the hell is the ref supposed to think? If you want to intentionally foul, (a) actually foul the guy, and foul him hard--it has to actually be a foul that they would call with 3 seconds left on the clock, not a little nudge; and (b) let the goddamn ref know you're trying to foul, by words and/or actions. You do that, he'll give you the call. Instead Wright retardedly throws his hands up in the air--OK, so it looks to me like you didn't want the call, so fuck you. Learn how to play the game. Use your head. 

That the NBA apologized for that call was yet another joke in this ongoing farce. The refs are doing fine--or good enough, at least. Leave 'em alone, let them do their job, don't hang them out to dry. Yes, NBA playoff officiating is a big problem, but the league with its asinine suspensions and apologies is making it fifty times worse, that's the legacy of David Stern.

6. So what's gonna happen Sunday? Fuck man, I just don't know. I suspect a solid Laker win, but with their cruddy shooting I don't think there are any guarantees. I wouldn't bet Houston with the points, but I think the money line might be a good bet--they have a better chance to win than you think. 

PLAYOFF THOUGHTS

1. Cleveland is clearly the best team in the league, and it's not even close. But the best team doesn't always win. I don't think Boston or Orlando has a prayer without Garnett/Nelson, but maybe the Lakers do--if they make it--but man, it won't be easy. Watching Ron Artest tear up Trevor Ariza makes me very, very concerned about what LBJ would do. The Lakers are a terrible help-defense team so if one guy is getting his ass kicked, it spells trouble. And if Lebron James is on the court, one of your defenders is going to be getting his ass kicked. BTW, Lebron is averaging 31.5-9.7-6.3 for the playoffs so far, and shooting .541 from the floor. The Cavs have won all 6 of their playoff games by double digits, and their average margin of victory is just under 18.

2. As I've said all year long, the Lakers aren't a great team without a healthy and confident Andrew Bynum. There's this sense that the Lakers can and will "turn it on" when they need to, but these aren't the Shaq Lakers where all it took to go from very good to great was the Big Fella turning it up a notch. This team is focused, this team plays hard--it's just that they're a step below greatness, and teams that are below 'great' sometimes lose to teams that are just pretty good.

The Lakers don't defend poorly because they're not taking teams seriously, or because they lack heart, or focus--they defend poorly because they defend poorly. Just like Mark Madsen sucks because he sucks. The Lakers defend poorly because they have multiple key players who aren't very talented at playing defense--Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum (in present condition), Luke Walton, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic. And they're not going to get any better at it between now and the NBA Finals.

This team is what it is, and people who think they're going to press a magic button and turn it on are going to be disappointed. This reminds me of 2003 when the Lakers stumbled through the regular season, struggled through a first round playoff series, and everyone thought they'd just ramp it up at the end--and then everyone was shocked when they got bitch-slapped by the Spurs in the second round. LA didn't--and couldn't--"ramp it up", they were the same less-than-great team they had been all year long. I don't know why sports fans always want to make athletic competition into a morality play. Most players on most teams in the NBA playoffs are playing their asses off and giving everything they can give, and when an NBA team loses it's almost always because the other team was more talented--or the other team got hot--not because the opponent "wanted it more".

That's not to say that the Lakers absolutely can't play with Cleveland. I honestly don't know if they can or not. Basketball is a game of matchups, each series is vastly different. The transitive property falls apart in basketball; just because LA is struggling against Houston doesn't necessarily mean they'll get crushed by Cleveland. But make no mistake, they are the superior team. I've seen enough.

3. And by no means am I conceding the West to the Lakers, I think they could absolutely stumble against either Houston or Denver--who looks talented, deep, and supremely athletic. I think LA will end up winning both series, but it's hardly a sure thing. I can't believe how good the Nuggets are now, this is an entirely different team from the one LA ran off the court last year. They're flat out better defensively with Chris Anderson/Nene instead of Marcus Camby, Billups adds so much to the team on both ends of the court, and the freakishly talented but wildly inconsistent JR Smith is in one of his 'holy shit' phases at just the right time. And Carmelo is playing like a real superstar, he's not getting enough credit for how good this team is playing. Again, I'm worried about what Carmelo would do to Trevor Ariza, but at least they don't have a hyper quick PG to torch Derek Fisher all night long. Billups is obviously a better player than Aaron Brooks of the Rockets, but you go back to the importance of matchups in basketball--with the Lakers' particular collection of talent they can deal OK with Billups and have no answer for Brooks.

So that's about it, I'll predict Cleveland finishes the sweep of Atlanta and then destroys Boston in the conference finals, maybe a 4-1 series. I'll take the Lakers over Houston in 6 and then Denver in 7. Then...who the fuck knows. If I'm a betting man, and I am, I'm putting my money down on Cleveland. But I think they're 60/40 favorites, not 90/10. The Lakers could conceivably pull off the upset as is, and they have a huge wild card in Andrew Bynum. Chances are he won't be the same player until next year, but if they could just get him back into the swing of things defensively, that could make all the difference--I sure as hell know Pau Gasol won't be posing any challenges to Lebron on his way to the rim. That could get real ugly.