OPENING DAY THOUGHTS

I see as many as 7 teams that can win the championship this season. They fall into 3 tiers:

Teams that can win right now, they require nothing further

1. Lakers. The favorite to win the NBA championship this year, but not a runaway favorite. They still have health questions with Bynum, chemistry issues with Bynum/Gasol/Odom, a concern that their role players (Vujacic, Fisher, Radmanovic, Farmar) played over their heads last year and are going to come back down to earth, and one last question mark that you don't hear very much about--Kobe's noticeable decline over the last two seasons. Don't get me wrong, he's still one of the best players in the league, but he's not as good as he was 2-3 years ago, and he's at an age (especially considering the huge number of games he's played for his gae) where decline typically happens. Fortunately, if everything else goes right--that is, if Andrew Bynum approaches anywhere near what he was when he got injured last year, and all signs are positive so far--they don't need the Kobe from 05-06 in order to win.

2. Boston. Their big three is another year older and they lost a key player from a thin bench in James Posey, but they also have upside with their young players--Rondo, who I absolutely love, along with Perkins, Powe and Davis. I expect them to once again be utterly dominant on the defensive end, and with enough offensive fire power to at least win the East.

3. New Orleans. There honestly aren't a lot of question marks here. They're young, they're talented, they're deeper than last year (adding James Posey), and they're led by Chris Paul, who's well on his way to joining the all-time greats. The only thing I can see here is that they had remarkably good health last year, with practically every important player logging 75+ games. That's not a typical NBA season. Maybe they'll go another year largely unscathed, but if not we'll see how the young Hornets deal with a little adversity.

Teams that can win it with just one thing going right:

4. Utah. Utah is another good, young, deep team, but they have one gaping weakness that the Hornets and Lakers don't: terrible interior defense. That's what happens when you start Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. But they're a damn good offensive team, and their leader, Deron Williams, may well make the jump to superstardom this year. Nobody's going to want a piece of these guys in the playoffs.

5. Detroit. Unless Joe Dumars makes a significant move during the season, which could certainly happen (how do you feel about Vince Carter? Big risk, big reward), the potential for the Pistons to challenge the top tier lies with their three young guys--Rodney Stuckey, Amir Johnson, and Jason Maxiell. Flip Saunders was fired for not playing these three enough, so I'm assuming new coach Michael Curry will give them every chance to do their thing. Now what that thing is is the question. Is Stuckey going to remain a solid rotation player, like last year, or is he ready to essentially be a third starter and put up 15 ppg? Is Amir Johnson in over his head as a starter or can he give the team some much needed athleticism up front and get 8-9 boards and monster blocks? And if Johnson's not ready to start, is Maxiell ready to jump in? In short, I don't know. I'm very high on these guys, but I just don't know if this is the year. What I do know is this: if they don't get major production out of these three, they're not going to beat the Celtics in the playoffs, and might not be able to beat a solidly improved Cleveland and Orlando (not to mention potential giant Philadlephia).

Teams that need to stay healthy but probably won't

6. Houston. Maybe they belong in the second tier because they've proven they can win without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, and they've now added Ron Artest to what was already one of the league's best defenses. Here's the thing though, I think they played way over their heads and I'm not sure their chances are as simple as taking last year's win total and adding the value of Ron Artest to it. If they can stay healthy, they'll be monsters, as good as anyone in the league. But if Yao or McGrady gets injured again, and at least one probably will, I think the Rockets could be looking at major disappointment.

7. San Antonio. Like I said last year, I'm not counting these guys out until Tim goddamn Duncan retires. They didn't do much to improve, but then this is a team that finished a game out in the West and beat red-hot New Orleans in the conference semis. They were outclassed by the Lakers in the conference finals, but they were also playing with a noticeably dinged-up Manu Ginobili. But that's the problem, there's a good chance that at some point during the playoff grind, they're going to have Duncan, Ginobili or Parker dinged up, and they flat out can't beat the best teams in the league when that happens.

FANTASY SLEEPERS

Sleepers, and not-really-sleepers, but guys I expect to make a big jump this year:

J.R. Smith. Smith is scary talented; I mean, I'm literally afraid of him when the Lakers play Denver. He's not just a shooter, he has a complete game, including underrated defense--he's just too immature to put it together consistently yet (he's still only 22). The last two years, his per-36-minute scoring averages are 20 & 23 ppg, with awesome shooting percentages. I like Linas Kleiza, but his ceiling is limited--Smith's isn't.

Rodney Stuckey. He clearly has big time talent, it's just a question of whether he (and Maxiell and Johnson) get the PT they deserve this year. And seeing as how not playing the young guys was a big part of why Flip Saunders got fired, I think Stuckey is going to essentially be a "third starter" at guard, with he, Chauncey and Rip all getting about 30-32 minutes per game. Stuckey's per-36-minutes numbers, despite missing the first 25 games of the year and then taking some time to get back into the flow: 15-4-5 with 1.6 steals.

John Salmons. This is a no-brainer, he's always thrived when Artest is hurt, he'll be at 17-5-4 with great percentages now that Artest is gone. Francisco Garcia also looks to benefit, he's also put up solid numbers without Artest around.

Julian Wright. I don't know if Wright can get enough PT to put up big fantasy numbers in the New Orleans logjam, but I'm personally betting he'll force his way into the lineup with his jawdropping talent. There's nothing on the court he doesn't do well, and he's got explosive athleticism to boot. I love this guy, he's like a young Pippen.

Brandan Wright. When Wright plays, he produces, it's as simple as that. He has the talent right now to put up 15 & 10 with huge blocks, and the year he finally gets enough PT to do it, people will be wondering where the hell he came from. I love Don Nelson, but he's like Phil Jackson a lot in that when it comes to young guys, he can't see the forest for the trees. Andrew Bynum is better than Kwame Brown, and Brandan Wright is better than Ronny Turiaf. Period. We'll see if he gets his chance to prove it.

Rudy Fernandez. Yet another talented player in a logjam situation, but I think Fernandez could be the guy who breaks out of the pack in Portland. This isn't Tony Parker at 18, this is a 23-year-old with an outstanding skill set who's been battle tested at high levels of basketball (he was superb in the Olympics) and is ready to contribute in the NBA right now. I like Jerryd Bayless a lot, and think Steve Blake is a decent player, but I'll bet Rudy Fernandez is getting 30 minutes a game by January 1.

Matt Barnes. Phoenix is a great situation for him, it's his style of up-and-down basketball, and it's a team that's both thin on the bench and in need of athleticism (not to mention Barnes' kind of toughness). I think Barnes has a chance to get a lot of PT and really thrive there, the way he did with Golden State two years ago. Barnes can do some things Grant Hill and Boris Diaw can't, namely defend and shoot the three. And Hill, as always, remains a season-ending-injury waiting to happen.

Randy Foye. Foye had something of a wasted year last year, missing half the season with injury and then taking another month to get back up to speed, but he ended strong: in 10 April games, he averaged 18-3-5, 2.2 threes per game, and outstanding percentages across the board. Foye can play, I think he's gearing up for a big year this year.

Spencer Hawes. I was very leery about this draft pick, but I saw some real flashes of brilliance from Hawes in his rookie season. In 28 games post-break, he averaged a respectable 7 & 5 with 1.1 block in just 20 minutes per game. I don't know if he can steal enough minutes from Brad Miller to put up big numbers this year, but he might--Sacramento's a rebuilding team, I think they're pretty high on their young guns and want to see what they can do. Miller could easily get hurt, benched or traded, and Hawes with 30+ minutes a game could be in the range of 13 & 8.5 with maybe 1.5 blocks.

Thaddeus Young. People are looking to Kareem Rush as the sleeper on Philly, and not without merit, he gives them a shooter they desperately need. But I don't think the Sixers are going to be able to keep Thaddeus Young off the court, he's too talented, too athletic. After the break, Young averaged 11 & 5 with 1.3 steals in 26 minutes, and I think he's just barely scratching the surface of what he can do.

Anti-sleepers

Ramon Sessions. Beware of guys who put up huge numbers in the last week or two of games, when everyone has quit on the season. I guess Milwaukee likes him enough to have dealt Mo Williams, but I'm still hesitant. He might end up being good, but I can practically guarantee someone in your league will overreach for him.

Anthony Randolph. Randolph is loaded with talent and is going to be awesome, it just won't happen this year. Not with Don Nelson coaching, and not on a team with a bunch of good forwards.

Marc Gasol. I've seen a lot of people pimping the younger Gasol, and I see a lot to appreciate about him too, but I strongly don't think he's going to put up numbers right away. He's a giant kid with a lot of athletic talent, but he's also a raw player on both ends, and at a minimum will be constantly in foul trouble.

Yi Jianlian. I can see why a lot of people are high on him for fantasy, Yi has a lot to offer, but I think he's still a couple years away. I think Yi could be this year's Bargnani, the guy who shows flashes of potential in his rookie year, but then doesn't take that expected big step forward in year two.

Mo Williams. I like Williams but just have a gut feeling his numbers will go down this year with Cleveland. They play a very slow style of ball, which isn't great for the superquick Williams, and Lebron dominates the ball on most possessions. Williams is a good shooter, but he's not a great one, he's much better at scoring off the dribble. And I'm sure Cleveland is looking for him to do exactly that, but I'm thinking he'll probably have slightly fewer opportunities with the ball than he's used to. And Lebron isn't the kind of player who helps your assist totals, he usually creates his own stuff. I guess we'll see.

Rookies

I like this class quite a bit, but not so much for this year's fantasy leagues. But here are a few who I think can put up some numbers:

Michael Beasley. As a rule, most 19-year-olds not named Lebron James aren't very good, but Beasley is a hell of a lot more physically prepared than most. And he also has a great opportunity to both get a lot of PT, and to play with other great players in Shawn Marion and what appears to be a completely reborn Dwyane Wade. Beasley will produce, but watch out for a potentially dreadful shooting percentage--I'm betting he's going to take a lot of bad shots.

Brook Lopez. Lopez has the size and athleticism that Kevin Love lacks, and an underrated skill package. I'm very high on him, but I wouldn't expect anything more than maybe 12 & 8 until maybe late in the year. As for Love, I just have no idea. I loved his game at UCLA, but I don't know if it'll work at the NBA level against the super-athletes at the 4 spot. My best bet is that he'll struggle at first to figure out how he can produce with his particular strengths and weaknesses, but maybe start getting it together by the end of the year--much like a Joakim Noah last year.

Greg Oden. Doy. He sounds completely healthy after a little scare a couple days ago, and I think he's pretty much ready to come in and get 12 & 12 with monster blocks right off the bat. I'm sure he's still pretty raw offensively, but I expect him to fill the Tyson Chandler dunker role on Portland with LaMarcus Aldridge preferring to stay away from the basket. Portland has so much talent at the other spots that Oden should absolutely feast around the rim.

I guess that's about it. I think Rose and Mayo will be OK, but no more than that--and both with horrid shooting percentages, unspectacular assist numbers and high turnovers. I love Russell Westbrook's potential, but I think he's way too raw in the skill department not to struggle a bit this year--he's a 3-year-plan guy. Some others I like down the line, but not this year: DJ Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Anthony Randolph, Marreese Speights, JJ Hickson.