MIHMPOSSIBLE DREAM

NOW FOR THE HARD PART

2009-05-18T14:24:00.000-07:00

The Lakers finally made some shots, played some tough D, and ran roughshod over Houston to complete the echoing of the 2008 Celtics-Hawks series where a far less talented team takes a massive favorite to the brink because of a few bad matchups.

Which leads me to the Denver-LA series. At first glance it looks like Denver is the better team. While they were firing on all cylinders and blowing out New Orleans and Dallas, the Lakers were bumbling and stumbling against Utah and an injury-decimated Houston team. In other words, it wasn't just the result, i.e., Denver winning in fewer games; the Nuggets just looked like the better team.

But yet here we are in the conference finals and the Lakers are heavy favorites. Is everyone an idiot? Do Vegas sportsbook gamblers foolishly bet with their heart? Or is it simply because the Lakers really are the better team, but haven't looked it because they've had less favorable matchups? Or hell, maybe you think they haven't looked it because they dogged it against Houston or were overconfident, whatever, but the question is, is there some reason the Lakers will be better in this series than they have appeared to be in the previous two.

I'd say yeah. I think LA will be better than they've looked so far and I think they'll take this series. First, because LA really is the better team--those 82 games weren't for nothing. Even if you look at only the games Billups played, LA's record was much better. But second because I think some key matchups really favor the Lakers, unlike in their first two series. I'm not saying the Lakers will waltz to the Finals; I have a lot of respect for Denver and think they're big, tough, and extremely athletic--but I do think the Lakers' size and Kobe will finally wear 'em down in the end in a hard-fought 6-7 game series.

Here are the matchups I like:

Billups vs. Fisher/Farmar. Obviously Billups is much better than the Laker PGs, but the reason I like this matchup is that Billups is a bigger, slower PG who Fisher can at least sorta deal with defensively. I'd much rather Fisher go up against Billups than the insanely quick Aaron Brooks, who spent the last 7 games dribbling circles around the entire Laker defense. Billups has always had success against LA, so I don't expect him to be completely shut down by any stretch. But I also don't think he's going to score 22 a game and shoot 55% from 3 like he has in the playoffs so far, and I'm not sure Denver can beat very good teams without Billups playing like the superstar he's been thus far.

Gasol/Bynum/Odom vs. Martin/Nene/Anderson. This is tricky. This is probably the series in a nutshell. While Denver's front court is very good and very athletic and Houston after Yao's injury had a bunch of cruddy role players no one's ever heard of, I honestly think Denver is an easier matchup for LA's bigs. Gasol has never had difficulty with a defender's athleticism, or even size, it's always physical toughness that he struggles against. I've seen the Laker bigs play against Nene and Kenyon Martin many times and I've never seen them push around Gasol and Odom the way those undersized but tough-as-hell Houston bigs did. Martin has a tough guy reputation but for whatever reason Gasol has always had success against him and I don't expect things to change. Plus none of the Nugget big men are especially aggressive on offense, I don't see them hurting LA the way Luis Scola and Carl Landry did in the Houston series. Chris Anderson sorta worries me with his crazy energy and athleticism, I shudder to think of big, slow-footed Andrew Bynum trying to keep him off the offensive glass, but on the whole I think the Laker big men win this battle. The huge, ever-present caveat for the Lakers here is the health--physical and mental--of Andrew Bynum. I'm predicting he continues his recent pattern of playing well at home and not so much on the road, which is typical of young, non-superstars in the playoffs.

Kobe vs. Dahntay Jones/JR Smith and Carmelo vs. Trevor Ariza. It's weird how Carmelo has always stunk against the Lakers; that athletic and physical wing player has historically been a tough matchup for LA--Paul Pierce in last year's finals for example. Bottom line, Melo is a damn good player who's been at a sky high level all through these playoffs (27.0 ppg, .480 shooting, .447 from 3), so I expect him to break out of his funk against the Lakers and cause all sorts of problems. I don't see how Ariza can defend him, especially if Denver is making 3s and not allowing Kobe or someone to help out on him.

But as bad as Carmelo tears up the Lakers, I think Kobe will tear up Denver even worse. They just don't have anyone on the roster who can stay with him--unlike Houston with two of the best perimeter defenders in the entire league. Dahntay Jones is in the starting lineup solely because of his defense, but he's no Battier--Kobe destroys Jones every time they play. JR Smith is a surprisingly good on-ball defender but he's also a space cadet who makes all kinds of defensive mistakes and hurts the overall team D. So I like Kobe's chances of doing what he did last year, putting up big scoring numbers, shooting a high percentage, and getting to the line a lot. If it comes down to who plays better between Kobe and Carmelo, I like the Lakers' chances.

The real wild card in this matchup is Smith on offense. He can't guard Kobe, that's a given. But with his jaw-dropping offensive skills, he may be able to at least partially offset Kobe's production. You just never know what you're gonna get with young JR, he could come out and bomb for 25 a game and rain down 3s from all over the court, or he could average 12 ppg in 20 minutes and not be much of a factor. But I definitely respect and fear Smith's game. If he's on, nobody's going to stop him, including Kobe.

Bottom line, the Lakers sorta own this team. I know they're different--very different--with Billups at the helm instead of The Black Hole. But they still have the same individual players that individual Lakers have a history of beating up on. Billups doesn't make Kenyon Martin defend Gasol in the post any better, y'know? So while I'll acknowledge the possibility that Billups might make the difference, I still like enough matchups here to think LA will take it in a hard-fought series and move on to the finals.

I'll try to post something about the East later this week, but for now I'll predict Cleveland wins in 5 or 6, but gets pushed a hell of a lot more than they have thus far.

SO WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE LAKERS

2009-05-14T21:39:00.000-07:00

I'm sure you all want to know what I think about the Jekyll/Hyde Lakers, so here goes:

1. You gotta give it up. Once Yao went down, I, like everyone else, thought the Lakers would breeze, even after my "the Lakers honestly aren't that good" post. But even if you think the Lakers are dogging it, are overconfident, are just playing shitty, whatever, you have to give the Rockets a ton of credit--they're playing out of their minds right now. Aaron Brooks has been phenomenal, Luis Scola has outplayed Pau Gasol, Ron Artest is hitting every big jumpshot his team needs, Battier is playing his usual great D on Kobe, and they're getting excellent bench production from the underrated Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Von Wafer. If you think this series is just about the way the Lakers are playing, you're not giving these guys nearly enough credit.

2. So are the Lakers dogging it? I honestly don't think so, and you know I'm their biggest critic. I think it's almost the opposite--they're playing as tight as I've ever seen them play. I can see thinking they're playing stupid, but I don't agree that they're lazy or overconfident. If anything they're individually trying to do too much. And I think they're plenty respectful of this team, if not scared shitless. It's one thing to miss a bunch of shots, especially against a damn good defensive team, but the turnovers and defensive mistakes are what's really killing them. To clarify, I'm not just talking about sucky defense, which the Lakers are prone to do because, as discussed previously, they just don't have a lot of good defensive players. I'm talking about defensive mistakes, particularly where someone (Kobe, Ariza, Odom, etc.) are trying to freelance too much and not trusting their teammates to do their job. That's the sign of a tight team, the sign of a team that's playing scared. Same with the turnovers, Laker players are trying to make plays they'd never try to make in a regular season game. They're feeling the pressure, and it shows. Everyone's trying to win the game singlehandedly, trying to force stuff that's not there, trying to do too much, taking dumb risks instead of trusting the offense, trusting the defense, and trusting their teammates.

3. That said, christ Pau Gasol is a terrible defensive player. He's honestly one of the worst "good player" defenders in the entire league. Let this series put to rest once and for all the idea that he's not bad at sticking with his man, and is just poor at playing help defense. He's terrible at both. He's getting his ass kicked alternately by Luis Scola and Carl Landry--two damn solid players to be sure, but they're not Amare and Bosh, y'know? Odom is a disaster too, it's shocking how easily Scola backs him down in the post. I mean, they're the same size, it's just that Scola is way, way stronger. And tougher.

Odom and Gasol are playing hard, as hard as they can--they're just soft. And I don't know exactly what I mean by that. They're physically weak for NBA big men, but it's also a mind set; they're both kinda passive players, they don't have that tough guy aggressiveness that a Scola or Artest has. I'm not sure that's the character flaw everyone makes it out to be; maybe it's something ingrained, something you can't do anything about, like being 6'6 instead of 6'10 or not being as quick as (that fucking maggot) Aaron Brooks. Or maybe they're just pussies. I don't know. I haven't fully decided yet. But whereas you can count on Gasol and Odom to destroy finesse front courts, like Denver's last year or New Orleans', they have a lot of problems with tough guy teams like Boston, Utah and Houston.

4. Another of LA's biggest problems is that they're a pretty crappy shooting team. I'm surprised nobody is talking about this, they really don't have many outside threats. With Derek Fisher spazzing out (1-14 from three in the series), Kobe less than spectacular, and Sasha Vujacic continuing his season-long slump (shooting a horrific 24% from the floor in the playoffs), the Lakers simply don't have many outside shooting options. That of course lets teams clog the middle against Gasol, Odom and Kobe on penetration, and LA doesn't have an answer for it. I said at the time of the Vladimir Radmanovic trade/cost-cutting dump that it was very risky, and I think Buss and Kupchak are kicking themselves in the balls right now. They could really, really use Vladdy popping 3s in the corner. You win with superstars in the NBA playoffs, but here's the thing--you might not need your role players to make a bunch of plays, but you need them to make the opponent play you honest. Your role players enable your stars to make the plays that win you games. A guy like Radmanovic can be helpful just literally standing in the corner ready to shoot.

5. The only rational NBA officiating conspiracy theory is the one that says the NBA assigns certain refs to certain games with an agenda in mind. If you think the league does more than that, stop reading and don't ever come to this blog again, you're too stupid to take up eyespace here. FWIW I don't think the NBA does anything whatsoever with its officials, but I'll allow that the 'assignment theory' has a .0001% chance of being true, unlike the more fanciful ones (save for out-and-out game-fixing, but I'm talking about league-office type conspiracies). But this series has provided some good counterevidence--the Rockets got Steve Javie in LA for Game 5, considered the best official in the league, the one guy out there where you know you're going to get a fair shake on the road. Then they got Mark Wunderlich in Game 6 in Houston, the biggest homer ref in the entire league outside of Ken Mauer. I think there were some shitty calls in both games, but the officiating was more or less even. I don't think it's had a real impact in any of the games.

That goes for most of these playoffs too, IMO. I think that no-call on Antoine Wright in the Denver-Dallas series was a good one, I don't care what the asinine, running-scared NBA league office thought. It was a little bump--if you call that same amount of contact in a one-point game and award the guy free throws, it's an atrocious call for the ages. So maybe you think the refs should've taken the game situation into account. I disagree, but here's the thing: after Wright bumps Carmelo, he immediately puts his hands up in the air, the typical "I-didn't-do-it!" move. So what the hell is the ref supposed to think? If you want to intentionally foul, (a) actually foul the guy, and foul him hard--it has to actually be a foul that they would call with 3 seconds left on the clock, not a little nudge; and (b) let the goddamn ref know you're trying to foul, by words and/or actions. You do that, he'll give you the call. Instead Wright retardedly throws his hands up in the air--OK, so it looks to me like you didn't want the call, so fuck you. Learn how to play the game. Use your head.

That the NBA apologized for that call was yet another joke in this ongoing farce. The refs are doing fine--or good enough, at least. Leave 'em alone, let them do their job, don't hang them out to dry. Yes, NBA playoff officiating is a big problem, but the league with its asinine suspensions and apologies is making it fifty times worse, that's the legacy of David Stern.

6. So what's gonna happen Sunday? Fuck man, I just don't know. I suspect a solid Laker win, but with their cruddy shooting I don't think there are any guarantees. I wouldn't bet Houston with the points, but I think the money line might be a good bet--they have a better chance to win than you think.

PLAYOFF THOUGHTS

2009-05-08T10:40:00.000-07:00

1. Cleveland is clearly the best team in the league, and it's not even close. But the best team doesn't always win. I don't think Boston or Orlando has a prayer without Garnett/Nelson, but maybe the Lakers do--if they make it--but man, it won't be easy. Watching Ron Artest tear up Trevor Ariza makes me very, very concerned about what LBJ would do. The Lakers are a terrible help-defense team so if one guy is getting his ass kicked, it spells trouble. And if Lebron James is on the court, one of your defenders is going to be getting his ass kicked. BTW, Lebron is averaging 31.5-9.7-6.3 for the playoffs so far, and shooting .541 from the floor. The Cavs have won all 6 of their playoff games by double digits, and their average margin of victory is just under 18.

2. As I've said all year long, the Lakers aren't a great team without a healthy and confident Andrew Bynum. There's this sense that the Lakers can and will "turn it on" when they need to, but these aren't the Shaq Lakers where all it took to go from very good to great was the Big Fella turning it up a notch. This team is focused, this team plays hard--it's just that they're a step below greatness, and teams that are below 'great' sometimes lose to teams that are just pretty good.

The Lakers don't defend poorly because they're not taking teams seriously, or because they lack heart, or focus--they defend poorly because they defend poorly. Just like Mark Madsen sucks because he sucks. The Lakers defend poorly because they have multiple key players who aren't very talented at playing defense--Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum (in present condition), Luke Walton, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic. And they're not going to get any better at it between now and the NBA Finals.

This team is what it is, and people who think they're going to press a magic button and turn it on are going to be disappointed. This reminds me of 2003 when the Lakers stumbled through the regular season, struggled through a first round playoff series, and everyone thought they'd just ramp it up at the end--and then everyone was shocked when they got bitch-slapped by the Spurs in the second round. LA didn't--and couldn't--"ramp it up", they were the same less-than-great team they had been all year long. I don't know why sports fans always want to make athletic competition into a morality play. Most players on most teams in the NBA playoffs are playing their asses off and giving everything they can give, and when an NBA team loses it's almost always because the other team was more talented--or the other team got hot--not because the opponent "wanted it more".

That's not to say that the Lakers absolutely can't play with Cleveland. I honestly don't know if they can or not. Basketball is a game of matchups, each series is vastly different. The transitive property falls apart in basketball; just because LA is struggling against Houston doesn't necessarily mean they'll get crushed by Cleveland. But make no mistake, they are the superior team. I've seen enough.

3. And by no means am I conceding the West to the Lakers, I think they could absolutely stumble against either Houston or Denver--who looks talented, deep, and supremely athletic. I think LA will end up winning both series, but it's hardly a sure thing. I can't believe how good the Nuggets are now, this is an entirely different team from the one LA ran off the court last year. They're flat out better defensively with Chris Anderson/Nene instead of Marcus Camby, Billups adds so much to the team on both ends of the court, and the freakishly talented but wildly inconsistent JR Smith is in one of his 'holy shit' phases at just the right time. And Carmelo is playing like a real superstar, he's not getting enough credit for how good this team is playing. Again, I'm worried about what Carmelo would do to Trevor Ariza, but at least they don't have a hyper quick PG to torch Derek Fisher all night long. Billups is obviously a better player than Aaron Brooks of the Rockets, but you go back to the importance of matchups in basketball--with the Lakers' particular collection of talent they can deal OK with Billups and have no answer for Brooks.

So that's about it, I'll predict Cleveland finishes the sweep of Atlanta and then destroys Boston in the conference finals, maybe a 4-1 series. I'll take the Lakers over Houston in 6 and then Denver in 7. Then...who the fuck knows. If I'm a betting man, and I am, I'm putting my money down on Cleveland. But I think they're 60/40 favorites, not 90/10. The Lakers could conceivably pull off the upset as is, and they have a huge wild card in Andrew Bynum. Chances are he won't be the same player until next year, but if they could just get him back into the swing of things defensively, that could make all the difference--I sure as hell know Pau Gasol won't be posing any challenges to Lebron on his way to the rim. That could get real ugly.

GREG ODEN: NEEDS WORK

2008-11-24T23:39:00.000-08:00

I've noticed something. Greg Oden is great at "being a giant dude", but he's very, very poor at "playing basketball". Kwame Brown now has a challenger for "Worst Hands In The NBA". Next rebound off the face wins.

Andrew Bynum is so far ahead of this guy it's not even a conversation. I'm not sure I'd trade Andris Biedrins for him straight up. In fact I wouldn't--honest to god. Biedrins, at 22, is averaging 16.8 ppg, 13.5 rpg, and 1.5 blocks--it'll be years before Greg Oden can score 17 a game.

I know, I know, he's coming off a major injury, he's never played an NBA game in his life, etc., etc. That's true, but it doesn't change the fact that he has no skills whatsoever--he literally doesn't know what to do with the ball when he has it. It reminds me of Josh Moore, this giant 7 foot reject who played at Michigan and looked as if he'd never seen the sport of basketball before he first came onto the court for that particular game you were watching.

It also doesn't change the fact that he has terrible, horrible hands. This is no small thing, good hands are one of the most underrated aspects of being a successful big men. Shaq had the greatest hands of anyone who ever played. Tim Duncan has great hands, as did Hakeem and David Robinson. Andrew Bynum has a sweet pair of mitts, and so forth. I don't know if there's ever been a successful big man who had hands as bad as what Oden's showed so far this year. He seriously reminds me of Kwame Brown, who may well have been a decent player if not for this one major shortcoming.

AND it doesn't change the fact that he's the worst conditioned player in the NBA. You might chalk this up to the year of rehab he just went through, and so would I--if I hadn't noticed the exact same shocking lack of fitness in his year at Ohio State. I watched the game tonight and--I swear to god--he was huffing and puffing, grabbing his man, and cheating down the court Shaq-style within *6* minutes of the start of the game! Six fucking minutes! This guy is in unbelievably bad shape, and he was as an 18-year-old at OSU too. This is a problem. It's a really big problem. He may have a serious medical issue, and whether it's small lung capacity or chronic laziness syndrome, either one is a killer of promising big men.

I know, it only makes sense to watch and wait at this point, I'm not saying I'd write the kid off, not by a long shot. He's so goddamn big, and so goddamn athletic, and so goddamn strong that he almost has no chance of outright failure. At a minimum he'll be a Tyson Chandler type, getting 10-12 ppg on put-backs and lobs, along with controlling the boards and the lane, and that's a valuable player to have around. And there's a good chance he'll grow up the way Bynum did and get his ass into the gym in the offseason once in a while, and work on his fitness and his game the way even the greatest NBA athletes need to if they ever want to be all-star caliber players.

But the first seeds of doubt are creeping in for me. The hands thing in particular is making me wonder. I've seen so many balls go off his hands, would-be rebounds, passes for would-be dunks, etc. If you don't have a killer skill game, you better make the most of your athletic gifts and you can't do that as a big man if you aren't excellent at securing the ball. Maybe it's just the speed of the game right now, he's having trouble adjusting to the skill, athleticism and speed of the NBA and it's affecting him in all areas of the game. The rebound comes off the rim, everyone's grabbing at it, guys are holding your jersey, pushing you in the back, etc. You get a nice pass and you put the ball on the floor to gather yourself up for a monster dunk, and some little fucker is swatting it out of your hands. The NBA in 2008 is a fast, fast game, and Oden is playing George Mikan speed right now. I guess that's probably the most likely explanation, that he just needs to get used to this level of play, but I've gone from a full blown Oden bandwagoner to someone who's real, real happy to have Andrew Bynum on his team.

I hope he makes it, he seems like a really nice guy, and interesting too, in a league full of cliche-spewing bores. But brother, he needs some work. He needs a lot of work. If I were a Portland fan, I'd be starting to worry the tiniest bit.

PISTONS STATUS REPORT

2008-11-23T17:22:00.000-08:00

I'm starting to get a bad feeling about the Iverson trade. The Pistons lost by 20 to the 2-9 Minnesota Timberwolves today, bringing their record to 4-5 since the trade. This was the 4th double figure loss of the 5 losses.

But I don't want to overreact to a couple of crappy shooting games (by everyone, not just AI)--they had plenty of those games with Billups too, and every jumpshooting team looks awful when 2-3 of the main guys go cold. And this trade wasn't meant for the regular season, I'm prepared for the team to win fewer games than usual and we'll see what AI can do against Cleveland and Boston in the playoffs.

Furthermore, they've played a brutal schedule in this stretch. Today's game was a terrible loss, and they also lost @New Jersey in their first game with AI, but the other losses were more understandable: @Boston, @Phoenix and home to Boston. Plus they've beaten the Lakers in LA and Cleveland at home, two impressive wins.

One area where I definitely think they're down and are not gonna get it back is perimeter defense. Iverson gets a lot of steals, 2 per game since he got to Detroit, but his man defense isn't nearly as good as Billups'. Look at the opposing PG performances in their 5 losses:

Devin Harris 38 pts
Rajon Rondo 13 pts & 5 ass
Steve Nash 17 & 7
Rondo 18 & 8
Randy Foye 25 & 14

Iverson needs to make up for that defensive deficit by being a solid upgrade over Billups on the offensive end, and so far he hasn't done it. Bottom line, Iverson has played poorly since he got to Detroit, he was better in Denver and will probably begin playing better for the Pistons soon. His jumper hasn't been falling, his turnover rate is up, he's taking too many shots (at 15 a game) and he's having trouble deciding when to push for his own shot and when to create for his teammates. And his teammates are having trouble knowing when to defer to AI and when to force their own offense. Those are the kind of things that can be easily improved upon with time. I still expect the team to bounce back and win 50-55 games, but I do acknowledge there's a small chance this trade results in outright disaster. And if it does, well, the other big reason the deal was made was to clear up cap space for the 2010 class of Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Amare/Joe Johnson, so at least there's that potential quick fix hanging out there.

The one really disturbing thing to me about this team is that not only hasn't Rodney Stuckey made the big leap forward I was expecting, he's actually regressed a bit from where he was late last year and in the playoffs. He still can't hit a goddamn jumper--I thought he'd make a huge improvement there--and he's suddenly turning the ball over like crazy. That was one of his best qualities a year ago, he really took good care of the ball for a rookie guard. This year he's turning it over 4.0 times per 36 minutes, that's atrocious. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.3:1, which is awful for even a pseudo-PG.

Stuckey was shaky in the early season last year too, but that was after coming back from injury. I guess it's only been 12 games, but I expected a breakout year from him and frankly so far he's been easily outplayed by journeyman Will Bynum. Combine that with Amir Johnson's demotion to the bench--for Kwame Brown--and Jason Maxiell averaging just 6 & 4 thus far, and this hasn't been the start Joe Dumars wanted for his young guns.

EARLY SEASON TRENDS

2008-11-10T14:12:00.000-08:00

The Positive

The Lakers are really, really, really good. I know everyone wants to downplay their team's chances when they're clearly quite good, you don't want to let yourself believe, but it's pretty hard to deny that this Lakers team is friggin' loaded. They were already a great offensive team, and I suspected they'd make a big jump in defense with the return of Andrew Bynum--potentially a top 5 defensive center in the league--but I didn't expect the improvement to be quite so dramatic. I guess we'll see if LA can keep up the defensive intensity--and it bears mention that they've played a horrible schedule to date--but so far, so good. If they keep playing like this, and stay healthy, they could make a run at a mid- to high-60s win total.

One underrated contributor to their defensive surge is Trevor Ariza. I said last year that Bynum's obviously more important injury overshadowed what Ariza's loss meant to the team. He gives them much needed athleticism at the wing spot, plus another lockdown defender who can help out Kobe on the perimeter. The Lakers are flat out better with Ariza in the game instead of Lamar Odom, and it's because they already have people who can rebound, score and handle the ball; what they need is an active defender, and Ariza is playing out of his mind right now.

Another guy coming on fast is Jordan Farmar. If he played for practically any other team in the league he'd be averaging about 17 & 8 right now, he's that good. He's a role player on the Lakers, but an extremely important one. Even as good as LA has been in the early going, they've frequently needed the surge of energy Farmar brings to the table.

OK, enough about the Lakers. Other teams looking good are Boston (doy) and Atlanta (wha?). I don't know if Atlanta can keep it up, but they're killing it right now. At 5-0 they're the league's only other undefeated team with the Lakers, and they've notched quality wins @ Orlando, @ New Orleans in a shocker, and home against Toronto & Philly. They're doing it with defense in the early going, giving up just 85.8 points per game (second only to, astonishingly enough, the Lakers). Joe Johnson is continuing his torrid play from last year after they acquired Bibby, averaging 25 ppg on 50+% shooting. Josh Smith is struggling on offense at just 12 ppg, but is the lynchpin of the team's athletic, smothering defense. Of course now he's out for a month, so we'll see what happens to that D while he's gone. Al Horford is going to really need to pick up his game to make up for the loss.

Another group coming out of the gate strong is the 2008 rookie class. Not expected to set the world on fire before the season started, they suddenly have about 10 guys who look fantastic in the early going. Derrick Rose isn't putting up big assist numbers, but 17.7 ppg on .458 shooting is fantastic for a 20-year-old rookie PG. Michael Beasley looks dominant and times and lost at others, but is so far averaging a respectable 16 & 6. OJ Mayo is the real surprise. I thought he'd put up big points (and he is, at 19.3 per), but thought his shooting percentage would be atrocious. But he's at a solid .441 thus far, and shooting a sparkling .455 from the 3-point line. I suspect his shot is going to stop falling at that rate, but he's definitely piqued my interest with his early play. That Rudy Gay-OJ Mayo-Marc Gasol trio isn't a bad core to build around. If Mike Conley ever gets his shit together, Memphis could be an up-and-comer.

Speaking of the younger Gasol brother, the rookie class features a trio of big men putting up solid numbers: Marc Gasol at 10 & 9, Kevin Love earning his way into Minnesota's starting lineup with 10 & 7, and Jason Thompson, an athletic, skilled PF in Sacramento, averaging 11 & 6 in just 21 minutes and looking like a major steal.

But my early prediction for ROY is Rudy Fernandez, who's looking very comfortable in Portland a lot soooner than people thought he'd be. He's averaging a respectable 14-3-2 in just 27 minutes, with sparkling shooting percentages--.464/.424/.941--but I think he's only scratching the surface of what he can do. I expect Portland to go more and more to the Roy-Fernandez backcourt in crunch time, that gives them two big, athletic, and skilled guards who can handle and shoot--that's a tough matchup.

Lastly, some veterans coming out of the gate strong...Bosh is loving having Jermaine O'Neal around to draw defensive attention, he's putting up almost 27 per game (at .537 shooting) in Toronto's first 6 games. Dwyane Wade, as predicted, looks completely healthy and once against physically dominant. He's averaging an absurd 26-6.5-8 with almost 3 steals and 2 blocks per game, but he's also back to his one bad habit of playing out of control occasionally--his 4 turnovers per game lead the league. And Amare Stoudemire is, simply put, the most dominant offensive force in the game. You now have to double team him from the second he has the ball, because he can overpower anyone, drive on anyone, and shoots the jumper as sweet as any big man in the league. Demonstrating what a great shooter he's become, Amare is shooting 87% on 11 FTA per game in Phoenix's first 7 games. He's also averaging 26-9-3, and shooting an obscene .644 from the floor. That number doesn't even make sense.

The Negative

The Spurs were already in trouble without Manu Ginobili, they've never been good with any of the Big 3 hurt, but now Tony Parker is out for a month too, and the team is floundering. They're 1-4 in their first 5, and now face the very real possibility that by the time Parker & Ginobili are healthy, they'll have dug too big of a hole to climb out of. What's amazing is their defense has been atrocious, something they've always been able to fall back on when struggling with injuries. Bruce Bowen, key along with Duncan to that killer defense, may be showing his age, he's only playing 20 minutes a game in the first 5. I'm pretty excited about his demise, so I may be jumping the gun a little. Time will tell if San Antonio gets it back--and gets healthy--in time to make a playoff spot run.

The 76ers have been one of the league's biggest disappointments, Elton Brand hasn't had quite the impact they were hoping for. I've watched a couple of their games and I'm convinced it's simply growing pains, a new team learning how to work with each other. Brand isn't getting the high post touches he normally gets and Andre Iguodala is really struggling with the lane clogged up by Brand & Dalembert, but I think these are issues that can be cleared up with time. Andre Miller is the perfect smart, veteran PG who can make this all work, but it may take another month before they're hitting on all cylinders. The upside of their initial awkwardness is the way 20-year-old SF Thaddeus Young has stepped up; he's actually leading the team in scoring at 16.5 PPG, and has added a very strong jumpshot (.478 from three!) to go with his excellent slasher game. I don't expect him to keep up those numbers, but Philly definitely has a keeper in Young, he can really play.

I suppose Pistons fans aren't feeling great about the Iverson trade, but I've watched both losses that he played in and the Pistons--a jumpshooting team that was always prone to those ugly games where nobody's shot is falling--have gotten a lot of shots that they usually make. This move wasn't made for the regular season anyway, and I suspect they may even fall off of last year's pace by a few games--but the bottom line on this trade won't be known until playoff time rolls around. The Pistons have struggled against the great Eastern defensive teams, Boston and Cleveland, and Iverson may be able to create his own shot well enough to give the team a better chance than they had with Billups. We'll see--but not for a while.

But I sorta like the trade more from Denver's perspective, I think this has a chance of really working out well. Philadelphia got a lot better two years ago when they traded Iverson and got a more traditional point in Andre Miller, this move could work out similarly for Denver. They have scorers--Carmelo, JR Smith, Linas Kleiza--adding Billups may be the glue they need to make this into a coherent team. Also one thing I've noted from watching the Pistons games: Iverson can still play some D, but he's not as strong as Chauncey. I think the Pistons are really giving up some defense, and the Nuggets are getting a much needed improvement. The Nuggets are still one Nene (averaging a strong 16 & 9 so far) injury away from being atrocious, but if they can miraculously stay healthy they could keep that last playoff spot they grabbed last year.

OPENING DAY THOUGHTS

2008-10-28T16:27:00.001-07:00

I see as many as 7 teams that can win the championship this season. They fall into 3 tiers:

Teams that can win right now, they require nothing further

1. Lakers. The favorite to win the NBA championship this year, but not a runaway favorite. They still have health questions with Bynum, chemistry issues with Bynum/Gasol/Odom, a concern that their role players (Vujacic, Fisher, Radmanovic, Farmar) played over their heads last year and are going to come back down to earth, and one last question mark that you don't hear very much about--Kobe's noticeable decline over the last two seasons. Don't get me wrong, he's still one of the best players in the league, but he's not as good as he was 2-3 years ago, and he's at an age (especially considering the huge number of games he's played for his gae) where decline typically happens. Fortunately, if everything else goes right--that is, if Andrew Bynum approaches anywhere near what he was when he got injured last year, and all signs are positive so far--they don't need the Kobe from 05-06 in order to win.

2. Boston. Their big three is another year older and they lost a key player from a thin bench in James Posey, but they also have upside with their young players--Rondo, who I absolutely love, along with Perkins, Powe and Davis. I expect them to once again be utterly dominant on the defensive end, and with enough offensive fire power to at least win the East.

3. New Orleans. There honestly aren't a lot of question marks here. They're young, they're talented, they're deeper than last year (adding James Posey), and they're led by Chris Paul, who's well on his way to joining the all-time greats. The only thing I can see here is that they had remarkably good health last year, with practically every important player logging 75+ games. That's not a typical NBA season. Maybe they'll go another year largely unscathed, but if not we'll see how the young Hornets deal with a little adversity.

Teams that can win it with just one thing going right:

4. Utah. Utah is another good, young, deep team, but they have one gaping weakness that the Hornets and Lakers don't: terrible interior defense. That's what happens when you start Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. But they're a damn good offensive team, and their leader, Deron Williams, may well make the jump to superstardom this year. Nobody's going to want a piece of these guys in the playoffs.

5. Detroit. Unless Joe Dumars makes a significant move during the season, which could certainly happen (how do you feel about Vince Carter? Big risk, big reward), the potential for the Pistons to challenge the top tier lies with their three young guys--Rodney Stuckey, Amir Johnson, and Jason Maxiell. Flip Saunders was fired for not playing these three enough, so I'm assuming new coach Michael Curry will give them every chance to do their thing. Now what that thing is is the question. Is Stuckey going to remain a solid rotation player, like last year, or is he ready to essentially be a third starter and put up 15 ppg? Is Amir Johnson in over his head as a starter or can he give the team some much needed athleticism up front and get 8-9 boards and monster blocks? And if Johnson's not ready to start, is Maxiell ready to jump in? In short, I don't know. I'm very high on these guys, but I just don't know if this is the year. What I do know is this: if they don't get major production out of these three, they're not going to beat the Celtics in the playoffs, and might not be able to beat a solidly improved Cleveland and Orlando (not to mention potential giant Philadlephia).

Teams that need to stay healthy but probably won't

6. Houston. Maybe they belong in the second tier because they've proven they can win without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, and they've now added Ron Artest to what was already one of the league's best defenses. Here's the thing though, I think they played way over their heads and I'm not sure their chances are as simple as taking last year's win total and adding the value of Ron Artest to it. If they can stay healthy, they'll be monsters, as good as anyone in the league. But if Yao or McGrady gets injured again, and at least one probably will, I think the Rockets could be looking at major disappointment.

7. San Antonio. Like I said last year, I'm not counting these guys out until Tim goddamn Duncan retires. They didn't do much to improve, but then this is a team that finished a game out in the West and beat red-hot New Orleans in the conference semis. They were outclassed by the Lakers in the conference finals, but they were also playing with a noticeably dinged-up Manu Ginobili. But that's the problem, there's a good chance that at some point during the playoff grind, they're going to have Duncan, Ginobili or Parker dinged up, and they flat out can't beat the best teams in the league when that happens.

FANTASY SLEEPERS

2008-10-02T16:17:00.000-07:00

Sleepers, and not-really-sleepers, but guys I expect to make a big jump this year:

J.R. Smith. Smith is scary talented; I mean, I'm literally afraid of him when the Lakers play Denver. He's not just a shooter, he has a complete game, including underrated defense--he's just too immature to put it together consistently yet (he's still only 22). The last two years, his per-36-minute scoring averages are 20 & 23 ppg, with awesome shooting percentages. I like Linas Kleiza, but his ceiling is limited--Smith's isn't.

Rodney Stuckey. He clearly has big time talent, it's just a question of whether he (and Maxiell and Johnson) get the PT they deserve this year. And seeing as how not playing the young guys was a big part of why Flip Saunders got fired, I think Stuckey is going to essentially be a "third starter" at guard, with he, Chauncey and Rip all getting about 30-32 minutes per game. Stuckey's per-36-minutes numbers, despite missing the first 25 games of the year and then taking some time to get back into the flow: 15-4-5 with 1.6 steals.

John Salmons. This is a no-brainer, he's always thrived when Artest is hurt, he'll be at 17-5-4 with great percentages now that Artest is gone. Francisco Garcia also looks to benefit, he's also put up solid numbers without Artest around.

Julian Wright. I don't know if Wright can get enough PT to put up big fantasy numbers in the New Orleans logjam, but I'm personally betting he'll force his way into the lineup with his jawdropping talent. There's nothing on the court he doesn't do well, and he's got explosive athleticism to boot. I love this guy, he's like a young Pippen.

Brandan Wright. When Wright plays, he produces, it's as simple as that. He has the talent right now to put up 15 & 10 with huge blocks, and the year he finally gets enough PT to do it, people will be wondering where the hell he came from. I love Don Nelson, but he's like Phil Jackson a lot in that when it comes to young guys, he can't see the forest for the trees. Andrew Bynum is better than Kwame Brown, and Brandan Wright is better than Ronny Turiaf. Period. We'll see if he gets his chance to prove it.

Rudy Fernandez. Yet another talented player in a logjam situation, but I think Fernandez could be the guy who breaks out of the pack in Portland. This isn't Tony Parker at 18, this is a 23-year-old with an outstanding skill set who's been battle tested at high levels of basketball (he was superb in the Olympics) and is ready to contribute in the NBA right now. I like Jerryd Bayless a lot, and think Steve Blake is a decent player, but I'll bet Rudy Fernandez is getting 30 minutes a game by January 1.

Matt Barnes. Phoenix is a great situation for him, it's his style of up-and-down basketball, and it's a team that's both thin on the bench and in need of athleticism (not to mention Barnes' kind of toughness). I think Barnes has a chance to get a lot of PT and really thrive there, the way he did with Golden State two years ago. Barnes can do some things Grant Hill and Boris Diaw can't, namely defend and shoot the three. And Hill, as always, remains a season-ending-injury waiting to happen.

Randy Foye. Foye had something of a wasted year last year, missing half the season with injury and then taking another month to get back up to speed, but he ended strong: in 10 April games, he averaged 18-3-5, 2.2 threes per game, and outstanding percentages across the board. Foye can play, I think he's gearing up for a big year this year.

Spencer Hawes. I was very leery about this draft pick, but I saw some real flashes of brilliance from Hawes in his rookie season. In 28 games post-break, he averaged a respectable 7 & 5 with 1.1 block in just 20 minutes per game. I don't know if he can steal enough minutes from Brad Miller to put up big numbers this year, but he might--Sacramento's a rebuilding team, I think they're pretty high on their young guns and want to see what they can do. Miller could easily get hurt, benched or traded, and Hawes with 30+ minutes a game could be in the range of 13 & 8.5 with maybe 1.5 blocks.

Thaddeus Young. People are looking to Kareem Rush as the sleeper on Philly, and not without merit, he gives them a shooter they desperately need. But I don't think the Sixers are going to be able to keep Thaddeus Young off the court, he's too talented, too athletic. After the break, Young averaged 11 & 5 with 1.3 steals in 26 minutes, and I think he's just barely scratching the surface of what he can do.

Anti-sleepers

Ramon Sessions. Beware of guys who put up huge numbers in the last week or two of games, when everyone has quit on the season. I guess Milwaukee likes him enough to have dealt Mo Williams, but I'm still hesitant. He might end up being good, but I can practically guarantee someone in your league will overreach for him.

Anthony Randolph. Randolph is loaded with talent and is going to be awesome, it just won't happen this year. Not with Don Nelson coaching, and not on a team with a bunch of good forwards.

Marc Gasol. I've seen a lot of people pimping the younger Gasol, and I see a lot to appreciate about him too, but I strongly don't think he's going to put up numbers right away. He's a giant kid with a lot of athletic talent, but he's also a raw player on both ends, and at a minimum will be constantly in foul trouble.

Yi Jianlian. I can see why a lot of people are high on him for fantasy, Yi has a lot to offer, but I think he's still a couple years away. I think Yi could be this year's Bargnani, the guy who shows flashes of potential in his rookie year, but then doesn't take that expected big step forward in year two.

Mo Williams. I like Williams but just have a gut feeling his numbers will go down this year with Cleveland. They play a very slow style of ball, which isn't great for the superquick Williams, and Lebron dominates the ball on most possessions. Williams is a good shooter, but he's not a great one, he's much better at scoring off the dribble. And I'm sure Cleveland is looking for him to do exactly that, but I'm thinking he'll probably have slightly fewer opportunities with the ball than he's used to. And Lebron isn't the kind of player who helps your assist totals, he usually creates his own stuff. I guess we'll see.

Rookies

I like this class quite a bit, but not so much for this year's fantasy leagues. But here are a few who I think can put up some numbers:

Michael Beasley. As a rule, most 19-year-olds not named Lebron James aren't very good, but Beasley is a hell of a lot more physically prepared than most. And he also has a great opportunity to both get a lot of PT, and to play with other great players in Shawn Marion and what appears to be a completely reborn Dwyane Wade. Beasley will produce, but watch out for a potentially dreadful shooting percentage--I'm betting he's going to take a lot of bad shots.

Brook Lopez. Lopez has the size and athleticism that Kevin Love lacks, and an underrated skill package. I'm very high on him, but I wouldn't expect anything more than maybe 12 & 8 until maybe late in the year. As for Love, I just have no idea. I loved his game at UCLA, but I don't know if it'll work at the NBA level against the super-athletes at the 4 spot. My best bet is that he'll struggle at first to figure out how he can produce with his particular strengths and weaknesses, but maybe start getting it together by the end of the year--much like a Joakim Noah last year.

Greg Oden. Doy. He sounds completely healthy after a little scare a couple days ago, and I think he's pretty much ready to come in and get 12 & 12 with monster blocks right off the bat. I'm sure he's still pretty raw offensively, but I expect him to fill the Tyson Chandler dunker role on Portland with LaMarcus Aldridge preferring to stay away from the basket. Portland has so much talent at the other spots that Oden should absolutely feast around the rim.

I guess that's about it. I think Rose and Mayo will be OK, but no more than that--and both with horrid shooting percentages, unspectacular assist numbers and high turnovers. I love Russell Westbrook's potential, but I think he's way too raw in the skill department not to struggle a bit this year--he's a 3-year-plan guy. Some others I like down the line, but not this year: DJ Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Anthony Randolph, Marreese Speights, JJ Hickson.

THE BLURST OF TIMES

2008-06-19T10:21:00.000-07:00

FINALS OVERVIEW

OK, OK, let's not overreact here. Yes, the Lakers got stomped as bad as any good team has ever been stomped in a deciding game in NBA history, they were soft, got physically overpowered, were terrible defensively and couldn't find a way to reliably attack the Celtics' defensive scheme. In short, they got wrecked.

But let's not overreact. Basketball's a game of matchups, and some matchups are really unfavorable to you and make you look a lot worse than you are. Going back to my favorite example of this, do you really think Golden State last year was better than Dallas? Sure, head to head, but what if they both played a round robin tournament against every other playoff team? The Mavs would have crushed the Warriors.

Look at Boston this year against Atlanta, who took the Celtics to 7 games. Do you think Atlanta is better than the Lakers? No, they just matched up better. Do you think the Spurs this year, whom the Lakers beat somewhat easily, were substantially worse than the Celtics? I don't. Hell, I think that would have been a great NBA Finals, and I'm not sure who I think would win. Tim Duncan ain't Pau Gasol, y'know?

And the people dogging the Lakers for "not wanting it" enough, give me a break. Yes, Gasol and Odom and others played real soft, but I think physical toughness often gets mistaken by fans as mental toughness. The Lakers are almost entirely a finesse team--Gasol, Odom, Vujacic, Farmar, Radmanovic, Walton, even Kobe. Kobe's tough as nails mentally, but he's mostly a finesse player--if he takes 25 shots, at least 15 of them are going to be jumpers. He's not Dwyane Wade, he's not going to go to the basket time and time again.

So you have a mostly finesse team playing against the most physical team in the league, a team with a really good defensive center (Perkins), an all-time physical/aggressive/tough guy at PF (Garnett), a big and strong SF (Pierce), and a super athlete at PG (Rondo). Heck, these guys even rubbed off on Ray Allen, who played tough and physical defense the whole way through. I don't think they "wanted it more" than LA (with the possible exception of the 2nd half of game 6, when the Lakers looked pretty defeated), I think they're just a lot physically stronger and tougher than LA, and to regular fans, that superior toughness looks an awful lot like superior effort. I think even Gasol played as hard as he could, he just doesn't deal well with really physical defense. Obviously that's an issue going forward, but I don't think it speaks to the degree to which "he wanted it".

KOBE

So does this answer once and for all whether Kobe is as good as MJ? No, that was done over the course of Kobe's career, which left absolutely no one arguing that position. Maybe Kobe's wife. Yes, Kobe completely sucked in the series, but again, don't overreact here. He just got done torching Bruce Bowen and a fantastic Spurs defense, I don't think he forgot how to ball in the one week between series. And I don't think he stopped sufficiently "wanting it".

Allen and especially Pierce played great individual defense on him, but they also had a lot of help from Perkins & KG when Kobe tried to penetrate. I think during Game 4, when they really started to collapse on him whenever he drove, he decided he needed to score on jumpshots and pass on penetration, which was probably the right thing to do. You can't score inside when you have Pierce on your left, KG on your right, and Perkins hovering right behind them for the help shotblock. The problem with passing off penetration was twofold:

(a) The Lakers' shooters (Fisher, Vujacic, Radmanovic, Farmar) were largely cold and surprisingly hesitant to put shots up--how many times did Radmanovic & Fisher pump fake/pass up an open shot? And how many bricks did Vujacic toss up? Your job as a Laker shooter is to make the other team pay for devoting so much of its defensive attention to Kobe, Gasol and Odom, and they did it well all year--but not in this series.

(b) The Celtics really are a phenomenal defensive team. The Laker shooters had a bad series, but that was partially due to how unbelievably fast Boston rotated out to shooters once Kobe or Gasol passed back out. A Vujacic or Radmanovic would appear to be wide open (as they usually are on a team with 3 dangerous offensive weapons), but then someone like Posey or Pierce or Rondo would materialize out of nowhere and force a contested shot--or no shot at all. Boston's great defense starts up front with Perkins and KG, but their perimeter defenders had a fantastic series as well.

BOSTON

I'm glad to see Paul Pierce get the recognition he deserves, he's always been a great player and he's always played his ass off even in bad situations. He was brilliant in the series. I'm also happy for Garnett, the guy in the league who most deserves to win a championship. He wasn't dominant offensively, but it was his versatile and imposing defense that really made their "take Kobe away from the basket" scheme work.

After a somewhat quiet series, Rondo really showed what he can do in that game 6, which he finished with 21-7-8 with 6 friggin' steals. He was all over the court on both ends, disrupting the Lakers' offense, breaking down the Lakers' defense with his penetration (and forcing them to play honest by making a few jumpers), and even killing the Lakers on the boards with his unbelievable athleticism and excellent hands. He's a keeper, man, he's going to be a really good player in this league.

Boston's shooters were excellent, constantly killing the Laker defenders for doubling Garnett in the post. Ray Allen was ridiculous--he shot 22-42 from three, and played really solid defense on Kobe. James Posey furthered his reputation as a Lakers killer, shooting 12-24 from 3, playing his usual tough defense and also hurting LA on the glass.

So why were there so many open threes for these guys when they were shooting the ball so well? Do you think Phil Jackson and the rest of the Lakers don't realize Ray Allen can shoot the ball a little? Of course not--it's that LA struggled so much with Garnett around the rim and Pierce going to the basket--and keeping Boston off the offensive glass--that their perimeter defenders had to start sagging down to help out. Maybe you'll get killed with the three (they did), but taking your chances with that is better than the certainly of being killed with layups, dunks and 5-foot runners.

The problem is that the Lakers just aren't a very good defensive team, so (a) perimeter defenders couldn't rotate out to open shooters fast enough, unlike Boston who did pretty much the same thing (giving help inside), and (b) even with the help by the perimeter defenders, Boston was still able to score inside quite a bit and get a bunch of offensive rebounds. I don't think there's anything Phil Jackson could have done about that, you scheme in a way that's supposed to help Gasol and Odom inside--but it's still not enough; AND you give up a ton of threes by red-hot shooters in the process. Sometimes you just gotta say there's no way any coaching maneuver could have changed that outcome. And in the NBA, I'd say that's the case about 97% of the time.

LOOKING AHEAD

OK, so where do we go from here? I think Boston's going to remain a monster for the next couple of years at least. Yes, they're an older team, but did anyone on that floor look it? Fuck, even PJ goddamned Brown was super energetic out there. That doesn't mean they're unbeatable, it just depends on the matchup. They struggled against Atlanta, and they got pushed by Detroit with their most important player dinged up (and a rookie who may or may not explode in the next year or two). I'd definitely make Boston the Eastern Conference favorite for 08-09, but I'd have the Pistons lurking somewhat close behind. (BTW, I predict no moves in the offseason and Rasheed still on the team, but I won't be shocked if I'm wrong).

As for the Lakers, well, you can probably guess what I'm going to say...and you're right: Andrew motherfucking Bynum. I think Bynum would have changed this series a lot, especially with regard to the Laker defense. I'm not saying LA would have necessarily won with Bynum, just that the series would have looked a lot different. As I said above, they had to have their perimeter defenders sagging down to help out Gasol and Odom, but I don't think they would have needed to do that with Bynum, who was becoming a serious defensive force when he got injured. LA still probably wouldn't have shut Boston down, but I think it would have allowed them to play a more straight-up defense--even a more aggressive defense, since you can live with funneling penetrators into Bynum; doing the same with Gasol just means an easy layup.

Same goes for rebounding. LA had to keep defenders hovering around the basket to keep Boston from getting a million offensive boards--which they did anyway. With Bynum out there, I think that becomes a non-issue. LA wouldn't have dominated the glass, but they could have played it more straightforward (with perimeter defenders sticking tight to their men), and that's a big difference.

I also like what Bynum will do for Gasol and Odom. Both players were physically overmatched by their Celtic counterparts, and both players played intimidated. I swear, I don't think Gasol had 5 post plays where he took the ball hard to the basket, he almost exclusively relied on that fading-away mini-hook that he makes about 12% of the time. Same with Odom, he just didn't have anything against the bigger, more athletic Garnett, which is what I expected/feared. But what happens when that defender is Paul Pierce of James Posey? All of a sudden it's Odom who has the physical advantage. The point is, it won't matter as much that Gasol and Odom are finesse players if they get to play against mostly smaller defenders.

So I said all along that I could live with a loss in the Finals because of the prospect of adding Bynum to this group next year, and I was sorta right. The loss was still extremely painful, but I am super optimistic about the next 5 years with this franchise. I don't think they'd be a slam dunk over New Orleans or Boston or Detroit in the playoffs, but I do think they'll win in the high 60s in the regular season (assuming--please god--no significant injuries) and I definitely would make them the championship favorite at this point.

What a difference a year makes. Then, as now, the offseason was all about Andrew Bynum and what he'd bring to the table the following fall--but the stakes are just a little different these days. When a year ago it was about needing Bynum to break out in order to become a solid playoff team and save the rapidly-disintegrating Kobe Bryant era in LA, now it's about that incremental improvement necessary to be an NBA champion.

I think most of the Lakers are what they are, they're never going to be any different. Gasol and Odom are going to continue to be soft ('soft-ish' in Lamar's case) finesse players, they're not going to suddenly start "wanting it more" and turn into KG-like beasts. And Kobe is going to continue to be a jumpshooter, Radmanovic & Walton are going to continue to be godawful defenders, etc. But adding Bynum, that's the great leap forward this team needs. Maybe Farmar, Vujacic and Ariza can improve, they're all young and promising players, but I feel like the answers to this team's biggest question marks--rebounding and interior defense--lie with the big fella.

It was a hell of a season, you really can't ask for much more than this as a sport's fan. Between Bynum's explosive development, the additions of Gasol and Ariza, the emergence of Farmar and Vujacic, it feels like almost everything went right all at once ("almost" = Bynum's injury). Kudos to Mitch Kupchak for not panicking in the face of criticism and staying the course, the man became Midas overnight.

So farewell to another NBA season. The playoffs may have been disappointing, especially the Finals, a crappy ending to a spectacular regular season, but I'm still pretty excited about where we are heading into 08-09, with Boston, Detroit and LA as the league elites, New Orleans right there on their heels, San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas struggling to hold on, and Portland due to arrive next year--and another couple of what appear to be no bullshit superstars about to join the league in Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley. The Finals may have sucked, but the on-court future for the league is still as bright as it's ever been.

GAME ONE

2008-06-06T10:25:00.000-07:00

Fuck.

The Lakers had a golden opportunity to take game one on the road and steal homecourt advantage--a few timely shots at the end when both teams were ice cold might have done it--but I'm still pretty concerned at what happened last night.

I know, I know, the Lakers had that opportunity to win even with Kobe having a godawful shooting night, but then Garnett, too, missed a bunch of shots he usually makes, so I'm not sure what to make of the "what if the superstar didn't suck balls?" analysis.

What I find worrisome are a few trends that, if they continue, will probably mean the Lakers' demise:

1. Paul Pierce. Yikes. The Lakers handled him pretty well in the first half, but only by double teaming him relentlessly. When they tried to go with one defender on him--even when it was Kobe--Pierce went off. He's a dangerous player, man, he can put the ball in the hole in a bunch of different ways. The Lakers have two hopes here, one is that if they go back to the double, the rest of the Celtics don't/can't make them pay for it; the second is that Pierce was red friggin' hot in that 3rd quarter, hopefully he'll come back down to earth a little Sunday--but even if he does, I'm still pretty concerned about him.

1a. Trevor Ariza. 0 minutes, despite the fact that he's far and away the best defensive matchup on Pierce, who was kicking the crap out of LA. Damn. Guess it's time to write him off for the series.

2. Pau Gasol. He can't have games where he scores 15 on just 11 shots, he has to be way more aggressive out there. If you're going to get your ass handed to you on the boards (more on that later), and you're going to play so-so defense, then you need to put up some goddamn points. I swear to god, I need to watch some Memphis game film because I can't fathom how he scored 20 a game without being set up for a million layups and dunks like he usually is with the Lakers. His post game has been nonexistent through the entire playoffs. When you're the #2 guy on a championship caliber team, you have to be prepared to be the go-to guy on those occasions where the #1 guy is stinking up the joint. See Pierce, Paul.

3. Rebounding. I was really worried about this going in, and all my worst fears have been confirmed. Even with Kendrick Perkins playing only 23 minutes and grabbing only 4 boards, the Celtics outrebounded the Lakers 46-33. Eek. PJ goddamn Brown had 6 in 21 minutes; Garnett was Garnett; Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo combined for 13. Meanwhile Gasol and Odom combined for 14, that's just not going to do it. It became such a big problem that Phil Jackson went to the little-used Gasol/Turiaf combo at the big spots (one bright spot in the game was that Turiaf played pretty well).

I think the Lakers were OK on the defensive glass, they gave up some key offensive rebounds, but they didn't just get hammered there--the problem was more on the other end. It's one thing not to get many offensive rebounds, it's another to not even be able to contend for them. I swear it seemed like literally every trip down in the 2nd half was a one-and-done. Boston's a really good rebounding team, the Lakers (sans Andrew Bynum) just aren't, this will continue to be a trouble spot for them.

4. Rajon Rondo. I said yesterday that if he plays well, the Lakers are in big trouble. Well, he played a pretty nice game, 14 pts, 5 boards, 7 assists, 2 turnovers. The Lakers have enough problems guarding the Big 3, they don't need this little gnat making it even harder. Hopefully we'll see the "Pistons series Rondo" Sunday and/or when the series goes to LA.

So those are the big 4 problem areas as I see them. I didn't mind the shots Kobe took (after the 1st quarter, anyway), those were largely makeable for him and he had a bunch of rim-outs. I'd like to see him go to the basket more when his shot isn't falling, but I'm not worried about him going forward.

I liked what Fisher & Vujacic gave them, they have to continue to be aggressive. Radmanovic played great, except he picked up a foul for every 3 minutes he was in the game--as predicted when I heard they were putting him on Pierce. I wonder if Phil will flop Kobe & Radmanovic, give Vladdy a break by putting him on Allen instead. If he's going to remain on Pierce, he needs help on literally every possession, which of course opens things up for KG, Allen & Rondo. It's all part of the chess match.

So where am I after game one? I guess I'm pretty worried, to be honest--the Celtics are as good defensively as San Antonio, and they have the firepower to avoid those long droughts San Antonio had in every Lakers win. But Vegas--astonishingly, IMO--still has LA as a very slight favorite, so maybe things aren't all that bad after all. I think I might put a bet down on Boston. Even if the Lakers win game two, I don't think they can take three straight in LA. That moves the series back to Boston, so the Lakers in that scenario would have to take two road games. Obviously it's in the realm of possibility, they damn near took the game last night, but I think I'd make Boston the slight favorite given the one game advantage and homecourt.

THIS IS IT

2008-06-05T10:13:00.000-07:00

Lakers-Celtics, here again after all these years. I feel like pulling out a skinny tie and watching super realistic family sitcoms like Growing Pains, specifically the episode where Mike turns down a coke orgy with two hot chicks because he's not that kind of boy.

These teams last met in the NBA Finals in 1987, a year when the stock market tanked and there was trouble in the middle east--but far more innocently than now. At least global warming hadn't been invented yet, and pollutants were belched into the atmosphere with cheerful impunity. It was an age of maturation and upheaval, and Hollywood responded with edgy, challenging fare like "Secret Of My Success", which proved once and for all what we suspected all along: a 22-year-old with no business experience is more than capable of running a giant multinational corporation, as long as he's pure of heart.

Oh, and on other major event took place in 1987: the birth of one Andrew Bynum in Plainsboro, New Jersey. No one would have suspected then that this little baby--or anyone in Plainsboro, New Jersey, really--would one day grow up to be important, but this little ball of freaky genetics turned out to be The Man Who Saved The Laker Franchise. It was his play in the early going of this season that turned the franchise around, that made them a legitimate championship contender, that pacified a Kobe who was on the verge of blowing up the organization. With his injury he's become the forgotten man, but not around these parts. Thank you, 1987, for your many wondrous gifts.

So on to...

THE FINALS

I said 3 months ago the Lakers wouldn't win the championship, and yet I've predicted they'd win each individual series--and I'm not changing it up now. I'm unhappy about not having home court, but I still think the Lakers' superior athleticism and depth pulls them through in the end. I wouldn't bet my life savings on it or anything, but I do think the Lakers are the very slightly better team.

THE MATCHUPS

The Big Fellas

Phil Jackson says LA is going to start out with Pau Gasol on Kevin Garnett and Lamar Odom on Kendrick Perkins, I don't know if that's going to work. I can see what he's thinking, Gasol's size might give Garnett problems on the inside and force him to be a jumpshooter (and he's often more than happy to be taken away from the basket, one of his few flaws). Gasol is truly a terrible team defender, but he's not half-bad staying on his man one-on-one...but that's in the post, where his man usually operates. I don't think Gasol can stay with Garnett when he gets the ball at the high post and then takes it to the basket--in fact, I think that's a great way to get Gasol into foul trouble, which would be disastrous for the Lakers (more on that later).

So I suspect the Lakers will end up with Odom on Garnett, and I'm plenty comfortable with that. Odom struggles against the big bruising PFs sometimes, but not so much with the quicker finesse guys. I think Odom will take away what Garnett wants to do (jumpers and drives to the bucket), and force him to do what he doesn't want to do (post up and bang around inside). But that doesn't mean KG can't do it; I think the level of success he achieves here will be key in determining the winner of the series.

I like the matchups on the other end (Perkins defending Gasol, KG defending Odom), but I don't love them. I think Garnett can take Odom out of his game, I expect Odom to struggle a little on offense in this series--but I think Gasol can hurt Perkins. Perkins is definitely a really good defender, bordering on great (his performance on Gasol might determine that question for me), but I don't think he can deal with Gasol's length, quickness and skill level. Perkins was great against the big men of Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit, but none of them have a Pau Gasol. I don't think it's a slam dunk that Gasol will score a lot on Perkins, but I think he will. In any event, it's another of those key matchups that'll determine the winner--if the Lakers don't get a lot from Gasol, I don't think they can win.

The Little Fellas

Let's start with the PGs, Fisher/Farmar vs. Rajon Rondo. I like Rondo a lot, I think he has a ton of potential and will ultimately be a great PG in this league--but he's not there yet. He took a huge step backwards in the Pistons series, playing way too tentatively, passing up shots, and letting the Pistons play off him and use 5 defenders on the other 4 Celtics. If that happens again, I feel really good about the Lakers chances. But I'm sure Doc Rivers and his staff have been all over Rondo the last week, and that he'll come out in game one and try to make himself a factor.

But it's not all just about trying, you have to make the plays before the defense begins to respect you. The Lakers will play him like they did Tony Parker, sagging way off and daring him to take the jumper. If he makes a few of them, I'll start to worry. If he misses, I'll start to smile. If he can't make the Lakers play him honest, I think they can do a solid job on the Big 3 and Perkins.

So that leaves Kobe & Radmanovic/Walton/Ariza against Allen & Pierce (with some help from James Posey). I know Pierce had a really nice defensive series against the Pistons, but this is Kobe Bryant--it's different. If he ends up on Kobe, I don't think we'll be hearing every 10 minutes about his "underrated defense" like we did in the previous series, you know what I mean?

But the Celtics usually put Ray Allen on Kobe--the result won't be any different. You can't stop Kobe with one man (look what he did to Bruce friggin' Bowen) you have to defend him with your entire team, which makes opportunities available to Kobe's teammates. So even if Perkins can handle Gasol and KG can handle Odom, that's not the end of it. Kobe is playing some of the best basketball of his career right now, his shot is on, he's not forcing bad shots and tough passes, he's just been on fire. Boston is a great defensive team, but so was San Antonio and they couldn't slow him down either. I fully expect Kobe to dominate the series offensively.

So what about Pierce and Allen? I have to admit, I'm a little nervous about these two. For one thing, Kobe can only take one of 'em. LA is reportedly going to start out with Kobe on Ray Allen, with Radmanovic on Pierce, but I don't think that will last. Pierce is the better offensive player, and Kobe has a habit of laying off his man to freelance and try to create turnovers. That's fine if you're guarding Ronnie Brewer, but not if it's Ray Allen. Allen stunk so unbelievably bad in the early going of the Pistons series, but he really bounced back in those last couple games.

Radmanovic is a lot like Gasol--he's a terrible, terrible team defender, but he's decent at sticking with his man and forcing tough shots. I much prefer Paul Pierce as a shooter than as a post player, and I'm sure that's Phil Jackson's thinking on starting the bigger Radmanovic on him. But Pierce can do a lot of things, he can shoot, he can post, and he can drive, and that's an almost impossible cover for Vladdy. I predict Phil will have to switch Kobe on to Pierce after the first game or two--if I'm wrong and Radmanovic does an adequate job on Pierce, I think Boston's in big trouble.

The Lakers have a wild card on the bench in Trevor Ariza, the athletic defensive ace who is finally playing again after losing four months to injury, but who the hell knows if he's ready to play crunch time minutes in the NBA Finals. It sure would help if he could get out there and handle Pierce/Allen for 10-15-20 minutes, but I think that's asking a lot of a guy who hasn't gone past 6 (garbage time) minutes in the handful of games he's played in since his return. So I guess I think one of Pierce/Allen is going to hurt the Lakers consistently, whichever one Kobe isn't on.

As for the rest of the bench, I think the Lakers have a huge advantage. Boston's guys--James Posey, Eddie House, Leon Powe, Glenn Davis--are underrated, especially Posey who I expect to be a big factor in this series and who could play crunch time minutes defensively against Kobe. I also feel like Posey has never missed an open three against the Lakers in his NBA career--and if there's one thing the Lakers consistently lapse on defensively, it's giving up open threes.

But the Lakers bench has been a huge strength all year, and they were instrumental in taking down San Antonio. I love the idea of playing Sasha Vujacic on Ray Allen down the stretch in that 3-guard lineup Phil likes to go with in the 4th quarter. In addition to being one of the true money shooters in the league, Sasha has also made a quantum leap in his defense and has now made himself a real pest on that end. I don't want him checking Dwyane Wade on the perimeter or anything, but he's excellent at sticking tight on shooters. He'll be huge in this series.

I also like Jordan Farmar here, I think he can come in and shut down Rondo while also pushing him on the offensive end. Farmar struggled against Utah, but his confidence came raging back against San Antonio. Farmar isn't great against bigger, tougher PGs like Deron Williams, but he thrives on both ends against the quick little guys like Tony Parker and Rondo.

I do think Boston's big men--Powe, Davis--might be able to do some damage when Walton and Turiaf are out there, but I don't expect Luke & Ronny to get a ton of PT. Walton will play about 15 minutes per, Turiaf will play only as needed to spell Gasol.

Which leads me to another key to this series: Gasol staying out of foul trouble. If he's on Garnett, I think that could spell trouble and might force Phil to switch Gasol onto Perkins, who has a pretty rudimentary offensive game. I'm not saying Gasol will completely shut him down, especially if Perkins plays like he did in that one Pistons game--but I don't think he'll get Gasol in foul trouble, and that's the key to Lakers offensive success. On the contary, I think it might be Perkins who struggles to stay on the floor while trying to handle Gasol. Powe and Davis are good, solid players, but they're both a huge decline defensively from Perkins, I think Gasol would light up either of them like a christmas tree.

So I guess that's about it. The keys as I see them are:

1. Can KG score in the post?
2. Can Gasol stay out of foul trouble? Can Perkins?
3. Can Rondo force the Lakers to respect him as an offensive threat?
4. Can Radmanovic/Walton handle Pierce? If not, can LA put Kobe on him and still defend Allen?
5. Can Pierce/Allen at least keep Kobe from really going off?
6. If the Celtics help out Pierce/Allen on Kobe, can the other Lakers make them pay?
7. What will Lamar Odom do in this series on both ends of the floor?

Sorry about the verbosity, but my brain is bursting with thoughts about this series. Lakers-Celtics, the dream matchup (c'mon, even if you hate one or both, you have to admit it's pretty cool).

This series is so bright, I gotta wear shades...

GAMES 1

2008-05-21T23:14:00.000-07:00

I think there were a lot of similarities between the first games of each series. Detroit and LA played sloppy and missed a lot of shots they usually make, and each got themselves into a big hole in the third quarter and spent the rest of the game trying to claw their way back. But there were two major differences:

1. LA was at home

The Lakers had a hell of a lot more riding on the game; losing game one at home would have put them in a giant hole, while the Pistons losing on the road only means they have 3 more chances to steal home court advantage instead of 4--given that you take care of business at home, of course.

2. LA has Kobe

Detroit came out in the third quarter and played terrible basketball, missing easy shots, turning the ball over like crazy, and playing lax defense. The Lakers did the same, and both teams fell behind by double digits. Then they both came storming back to cut the lead down to 5 or so, but the Pistons couldn't close the deal and the Lakers did.

Detroit just never had a go-to guy down the stretch. Rasheed wasn't feeling it in the post, missing shots that he's usually money on, Hamilton was ice cold, and Chauncey was stiff and had trouble getting into the flow of the offense all game long. You could see the Pistons' uncertainty at crunch time, they had like 5 straight crucial possessions where they seemed unsure of what they wanted to do offensively. That's what happens when you're a jumpshooting team and your big 3 shooters are all cold at the same time.

Meanwhile the Lakers had no such uncertainty. The ball went to Kobe, and Kobe either scored or drew the defense and dished off to a teammate. San Antonio played great defense down the stretch, it's just that, like I always say, sometimes you get Kobe'ed--the same way the Lakers damn near got Duncan'ed.

Going forward, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about both teams. I feel like the Pistons can shut down Ray Allen, they almost never get beat by big time shooters and Allen looks completely out of sorts right now anyway--he's averaging 12.5 ppg in 15 playoff games on 38% shooting. Yikes.

So that leaves KG, Pierce and Rondo. I think Rondo's going to continue to be a problem; the Pistons struggle against quick penetrators, and Rondo is becoming one of the better ones in the league. As for Pierce and Garnett, they both had great games Wednesday, but I also thought the Pistons forced them into a lot of tough shots, especially KG. If Garnett is taking a bunch of fadeaway jumpers in the post, I like my chances. He's a good post scorer, not a great one--he's not Rasheed (of course Rasheed isn't 'post-scoring-Rasheed' 75% of the time either).

Meanwhile the Pistons played a really ugly game, with no one playing well other than McDyess and Stuckey. Sure, the Celts' defense had something to do with that, but not everything--I saw a ton of missed shots by the big 4 (Sheed, Rip, Chauncey & Tayshaun) that they usually make, and that spate of turnovers in the third that put them behind the eight ball was completely uncharacteristic of the Pistons.

So the bottom line is that the Pistons played a poor game, with a dinged up/rusty Billups, and they were still only down 6 late in the fourth on the road to a 66-win team that played pretty well. I'd definitely make the Celtics the favorite, but I think Detroit still has a solid chance to pull this thing off.

As for the Spurs-Lakers game, nothing that happened in game one has changed my way of thinking. I think the Lakers will win, but the series is going to be a dogfight from start to finish. I love what the Lakers did to Parker & Ginobili; if they can keep them out of the lane, they'll win the series. I just don't know if they can do that.

Duncan was awesome, he forced the Lakers to break their cardinal rule against double teaming in the post. Luckily all the Spurs' shooters went cold at once, because they were getting some good looks. Ginobili stunk in particular; he may or may not be still dinged up, it's hard to tell if he was hurting or just having a crappy game, but he wasn't the same slashing, driving, defense-destroying force he usually is against the Lakers.

I guess I don't expect Duncan to be that good tomorrow, but I also don't expect Ginobili to be that bad. I think game two will be a lot like game one, both teams struggling a bit on offense as the officials call "Spurball"--i.e., anything goes on defense. I don't know if Kobe can put the team on his back like he did last night, but then maybe Odom and Fisher won't completely blow either. I'll take the Lakers to win it, but I'll be surprised if it's not ugly and close at the end.

THE FUTURE OF THE CAVS

2008-05-18T16:37:00.000-07:00

I think this is the time Danny Ferry needs to be very smart, very patient, and very tough, because it's about to get real ugly in Cleveland. James is going to (somewhat understandably) throw a hissy fit this summer over his teammates sucking so bad, while Kobe, KG, and Chris Paul are all fighting for glory. And everyone in the state of Ohio is probably wetting their pants at the idea of Lebron bolting in two years. So what is a GM to do?

Here's the thing--you can't do much. Yet. If Cleveland tries to get better immediately, it's going to mean very slight improvement at very high cost. They're not going to get a Pau Gasol dropped into their laps, it'll be more like old, overpaid, declining players (e.g., Jason Kidd) who will be available for the crappy pieces Cleveland has to deal. Those kind of moves probably aren't going to make you a championship team, and more importantly, you're blowing cap space.

The only thing the Cavs have going for them right now is they have no long term contracts. Right now the only contract they have past the 2009-2010 season is James's option year for 2010-2011. That's it--in the summer of 2010, when James is deciding whether to opt out, and if so, where he's going to spend the next 5 years of his career, you finally have a hell of a lot of salary cap freedom. In some years, cap space isn't all that valuable, but not 2010; here are just a few players who either have an opt-out that year or are straight free agents: Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, and Manu Ginobili. Um, yeah.

If Cleveland plays their cards right, they'll be one of the few teams that have the cap space to offer a max contract, and they'll be able to offer a player like Dwyane Wade the opportunity to play with Lebron and compete for championships. Dwayne Wade...now that's a rebuilding plan.

I think Ferry can learn from Lakers' GM Mitch Kupchak here--everyone might hate your guts, the star player might publically question your competence, you might be hanging by a thread...but if you stick to your guns and your plan works (don't forget the Lakers had the best record in the West when Bynum got injured and Gasol wasn't even on the radar screen), everyone will be falling all over themselves to proclaim your genius. You'll be the toast of the town.

You just can't win right now, there's no possible quick fix. Nobody wants Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak or Zydrunas Ilgauskas for what you're paying them, and you don't have any potential-laden young players to tempt a team with a disgruntled superstar (like a Vince Carter or Ron Artest, which is a dicey move anyway). The best bet is to hang tough, ignore the calls for your head and Lebron's demands, and stick with your best bet--adding a Wade or Bosh or Amare in 2010. James might be pissed as hell at you and the franchise by that time, but if you can deliver him a sidekick like Wade I guarantee he jumps at it the same way Kobe quickly embraced the enormously improved Andrew Bynum.

8 WINS DOWN, 8 TO GO

2008-05-16T23:32:00.000-07:00

Wait, we're only at the halfway point?!

Well that was one tough mother of a series, every game was an absolute war. Partially because Utah plays so physical and tough, partially because they're a bunch of friggin' hackers. Boozer's 6th foul tonight was classic--he gets his 5th foul with, I don't know 5-7 minutes left, then he promptly goes out and commits about 4 or 5 fouls (or at least arguably so), before finally fouling out by outright climbing over a Laker players' back on an offensive rebound.

I mean, maybe he was just going hellbent out of desperation and taking his chances he wouldn't get a whistle, but I think it's more that he's a pretty dumb and undisciplined player. I love him, he's a great player and he plays hard as hell, but he's a terrible defender and a major hacker.

Chris Paul is probably already a top 5 point guard of all time...and Deron Williams is about 95% as good. He can shoot the lights out, he can handle and pass almost as well as Paul, and he's an excellent defender. Paul gets the steals, but I think Williams is a better position defender.

And fucking Paul Millsap! Cripes, how good is this guy? He's got crazy, insane athleticism; Lamar--who's pretty darned athletic himself--flat out couldn't handle him. I think Millsap has a good chance of being a big time player in the league. He's a free agent after next year or maybe the year after, I wonder what Utah will do. He's oozing potential, but he's a Boozer clone and you can't really play either of them at center for long stretches because they're both about 6'8. If I'm a team that already has a superstar, I'd go hard after him. Maybe Seattle with Durant, Millsap's toughness would be a good counterbalance to Durant's finesse game.

Utah is a really, really good team. Once they get more experience (especially with guys like Millsap, Brewer, CJ Miles), I think they're going to be in the championship mix with New Orleans, LA, Portland, etc. The only thing is, has a team ever won a championship with interior defenders as bad as Boozer & Okur? Can't think of any. Maybe they can offer Okur & Millsap for like...well, shit, I don't know who. Good rebounding/defensive centers don't grow on trees. It's not like many teams have a 7'1, 290 pound, 20-year-old future superstar just waiting on the bench for next year... :o)

God I hope New Orleans beats San Antonio, and not just because I think it's an easier matchup for the Lakers--I think both teams are fantastic and either series will be a war. But a Hornets series will be fun win or lose, watching Kobe's and Paul's greatness, Gasol's finesse vs. Chandler's power, Odom's and West's all around game, Peja vs. Sasha for the title of best shooting Croatian, etc. That's fun. That's something to be excited about.

But a Spurs series wouldn't be fun at all. It'd be like Michigan football under Carr, every game an ugly battle, no real enjoyment to be had even after a win...only relief. I don't want to watch Ginobili and Oberto flopping around, I don't want to watch Bruce Bowen grabbing, shoving and holding Kobe for 7 straight games, I don't want to see Duncan and Thomas hacking the shit out of Gasol & Odom, I don't want to see 75% of the close calls go to San Antonio...just please, please, New Orleans, finish these buttlicks off once and for all.

PLAYOFF THOUGHTS

2008-05-13T11:11:00.000-07:00

HOME COURT

We're 16 games into the conference semifinals and the road team is 1-15, the Pistons getting the solitary win at Orlando in an epic battle. The average margin of victory in the Boston-Cleveland series is 14; in the San Antonio-New Orleans series, it's 17. 7 of the 16 games have been decided by more than 15 points. The line on game 3 of the Utah-Los Angeles series jumped 12 points from game 2, from LA -7 to Utah -5. The line for game 5 (heading back to LA) jumped 10 points from game 4, from Utah -1.5 to LA -8.5--and that's with Kobe at less than 100%.

To sum up, home court advantage is really getting out of hand. When half the games are blowouts between two evenly matched teams, you know you have a problem. I do think teams just play better at home, I don't think it's entirely the officiating, but clearly officiating is the biggest culprit. The Jazz-Lakers series provides the best example. The games at Utah were ugly, physical affairs--Jazz style basketball. I'm not saying the Lakers got screwed on some inconsistent calls, I think the officiating was more or less fair; the games were just called loosely for both teams, and that means Utah's physical style was favored.

Look, I don't think it's an accident that Utah was 37-4 at home (best record in the league) and 17-24 on the road (13th best). They play a style that's not going to win many games when the game is being called tight, and is going to win a lot when it's being called loose. The problem isn't the inconsistency of the tight/loose standard, it's that every game in Utah is called loose, and that's not a coincidence.

The differences between teams at this stage are very, very small, having a game officiated in a certain way makes for a massive advantage that's being reflected in the outcomes and the Vegas lines. I'd normally ask that an officiating crew pick a standard and stick with it, but when that standard is always the one that's beneficial to the home team, you have a problem. I don't think that's the only officiating problem, I also think the home team typically gets a handful of calls that would go the other way in the other city, but that's probably true in every sport.

The NBA needs to do something about this, it's completely out of control. You can't have the home team winning 15 out of 16, you can't have 12 point swings in Vegas, you can't have every other game being a blowout. I stil think these playoffs can be salvaged, but it's been awfully disappointing to date.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Man, that Boston-Cleveland series is brutal, it's damn near unwatchable. Both teams are playing outstanding defense, but the officiating has also been extremely loose (falling in line with my "home team gets the officiating standard it wants" theory above--the problem is that both teams want the same defense-friendly standard that results in fugly basketball). Nobody's going to score a lot of points when you have two good defensive teams who are allowed a high level of contact, not even Lebron, KG, Pierce and Allen.

For me, this series is simple--either the Cavs' role players knock down their shots, or they lose. An opponent can take away a player even as a great as Lebron if they commit enough resources to him, and the only way you can get all those defenders off his back is by having your scrubs make them pay for it. I've seen this a million times with Kobe; Kwame Brown and Smush Parker couldn't make the other team pay for putting all its defensive focus on stopping Kobe; Pau Gasol and Sasha Vujacic are another story. I'd also say that Kobe can deal with that kind of defense better than Lebron, given his superior ballhandling and shooting skills. If you "make Kobe into a jumpshooter", you might catch him cold--or he might bury you. With Lebron, if you sag off him, crowd the lane, and give him the jumper, you have a good chance of holding him down. I think that's the very slight difference between Kobe and Lebron at this stage of Lebron's career--it's just a little easier to take LBJ out of his game than Kobe. Not easy...easier.

Cleveland's scrubs came up big in games 3 and 4 with Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, etc. If they can keep it up, we'll get to see what strategic move Boston makes, and whether that move opens things up for Lebron. But bottom line, with two games left in Boston, they have to be considered a huge favorite.

As for the Pistons-Magic series, I think it's over with or without Billups. I guess you can never truly count Orlando out of any one game, you never know when they're going to pull one of those "13-24 from three" games, but I don't see any way in hell they take 3 straight (with 2 of them at Detroit).

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Spurs-Hornets series could be fantastic if every game wasn't a blowout. The margins of victory have been 19, 18, 11 and 20. Wow. Fun. This potentially could end up great, though, despite what's happened in the first four games. Vegas has this series essentially as a pick 'em. I think most people (including myself) see San Antonio as the better team, but New Orleans has the huge advantage of having 2 of the last 3 games at home.

Can San Antonio win in a place where they got crushed in the first two games? I think they will. Parker and Ginobili have been phenomenal, Tyson Chandler is having trouble containing Duncan without getting into foul trouble, and the Spurs made a great strategy move putting defensive ace Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic (who buried them in games 1 & 2) instead of Chris Paul, who Bowen can't guard anyway. Peja was 5-16 from the floor and 1-4 from three in games 3 & 4, after 17-28 and 7-11 in games 1 & 2. The Spurs are "letting" Paul put up big numbers (by putting Parker on him, who can't guard anyone), but clamping down on everyone else, and it seems to be working...but let's just wait until it works on the road.

As for the Lakers, I think they're sitting somewhat pretty. They lost two heartbreakers in Utah, but at least they played it close on the road instead of getting blown out like most road teams have done in these playoffs. But christ, they had that goddamn game yesterday!! Kobe's back worries me a lot, the Lakers' room for error is razor thin. It doesn't sound like there's any possibility of him missing games, but the Lakers also struggle when he's less than 100%. Here's the problem--when he's dinged up, he turns into a jumpshooter. But the Lakers have plenty of shooters, what they need is a guy who can break down the defense, and only Kobe can do that.

Vegas has the Lakers at around 78% to win it, that sounds about right to me--any higher and I'd jump on a Utah bet. I don't know if they can win in LA, but they have two chances and one or both of those might feature something less than the full Kobe experience.

I think if the officials keep calling games tight in LA, the Lakers will win in 7 (with a solid shot of ending it in game 6, both games in Utah have been close). But if the trend breaks, if a game gets called loose, that's how I see Utah having a chance to pull this thing off. The Lakers are a very good team, but they're pretty soft, especially up front with Gasol, Odom, Radmanovic, and Walton*. Utah is big, physical and tough, they thrive in those free-for-alls. It's funny, teams like that are almost always defensive-minded, but that's not Utah; they're a great offensive team and mediocre on defense. But when the game is physical and the refs are letting a lot of contact go, Utah becomes a pretty good defensive team while still having the toughness and strength to score points.

Count me as confident, but concerned. This series is far from over.

*Andrew Bynum, of course, changes everything on the softness/toughness front. If the Lakers stay healthy next year, I think they can make a run at a 65-70 win season.

RAJON RONDO ON THE RISE

2008-05-06T17:46:00.000-07:00

I'm sitting here watching Rajon Rondo tear apart the Cleveland Cavaliers' defense, and I'm getting the feeling he's going to bust out big time over the next couple of years. It seems like every time I see him play, he's gotten 10% better than the last time. I've been thinking for a while that the Pistons might rather see the Celtics than the Cavs (who obviously give them fits) in the conference finals, but Rondo's recent play has forced me to change my mind.

Chauncey Billups is still a good defender, but those super-quick guys like Rondo give him problems. It's the same with Jason Kidd, he can still handle the bigger, slower PGs just fine, but when you throw him on a Chris Paul, it gets ugly fast. Billups isn't quite so far gone as Kidd, but I have seen the Pistons get hurt with PG penetration a lot this year. Rondo has been blowing by people since he got into the league, I worry that Billups won't be able to do much to check him on the perimeter. And you can't defend a team with 3 superstars if the non-superstar PG is breaking down the defense at will.

Plus Rondo's turned into a fantastic on-ball defender, not just an opportunistic steals guy. I know Mike Bibby isn't the best player in the league or anything, but Rondo was inside his jock that entire series, Rondo completely shut him down. Bibby averaged 10 & 3 with .339 shooting in the series. Rondo averaged 12-4-7 with 1 turnover per game.

Imagine if Phoenix had kept this guy, they'd be all set for the post-Nash era (I mean, they'd obviously be down, but not on the brink of obscurity like they are now). They're so desperate for a backup point that they signed Marcus Banks and then fucking GORDON GIRICEK, a guy Philadelphia thought so highly of that they cut him and ate his salary. But Phoenix essentially sold the rights to Rondo for cash, much as they did with Luol Deng and Nate Robinson, another couple of players they could really use. Oh well. As a Lakers fan I can't really say I'm sorry that the division and conference are soon to have another has-been.

BTW, I really hate when reporters say stuff like "Phoenix sold Rajon Rondo" vs. "Phoenix sold the rights to Rondo". I don't think you have to be super politically correct to be uncomfortable with the idea of selling black people.

DING DING, ROUND TWO

2008-05-03T11:45:00.000-07:00

We're still waiting on game 7 of Atlanta-Boston to get the conference semifinal field set, but seeing as how the other three series start today and tomorrow, I want to get my predictions down.

DETROIT-ORLANDO

I know the Pistons didn't look great in a surprisingly tough series with Philadelphia, but I'm still predicting a solid win against Orlando--I just don't think the Magic are the kind of team that gives Detroit trouble.

Dwight Howard will undoubtedly wreak some havoc; Rasheed is a great post defender, but Howard has a huge size and athleticism advantage over him. And the way the Magic work, spreading the floor with a bunch of deadly shooters, it makes it really hard to give your main post defender help. But the Pistons did a good job of keeping him contained in the regular season, Howard's 17 & 11 averages against them well below his usual 21 & 14. As long as Rasheed stays out of foul trouble, I see Howard being a handful, but not putting up 2001-Shaq-style 30 & 20s.

Where I think the Pistons win this is with their perimeter defense. What they struggle with a little bit now is penetration, they're still excellent at sticking on shooters, and that's what Orlando's supporting cast is--a bunch of shooters. Turkoglu could cause some problems, he's turned into an outstanding all-around player; but that's where Detroit's defensive ace, Tayshaun Prince, comes into play. I'm not worried about Turkoglu really lighting up Tayshaun. Another key matchup will be Detroit's secondary big man defender--McDyess and Maxiell mostly--on Rashard Lewis. That might sound a little ugly at first, but Lewis is not great at putting the ball on the floor and going to the basket.

I see the series coming down to the Chauncey Billups-Jameer Nelson matchup. Two weeks ago I'd have said that was a slam dunk for the Pistons. But in the first round, Nelson had a fantastic series (17 & 5, shooting 52% from the floor and 50% from 3), and Billups really stunk (15.5 & 7, 40% and 33%). The good news is that Billups turned it around in the last two games, with 21 and 20 points on good shooting, and his usual good defense on Andre Miller after he'd been burned earlier in the series. If Billups clamps down on Nelson and stays consistent with his shot, I think the Pistons win it. If not, if he gets outplayed like he did early in the Philly series, I think the Pistons are in trouble. If Nelson is penetrating, that breaks down the Pistons' team defense and opens up all kinds of possibilities for Howard and the shooters.

LAKERS-UTAH

I think the Lakers are going to win this series, but I don't think it'll be easy. LA usually beats good offense/bad defense teams, but Utah has a couple of matchups that are killers for the Lakers--Derek Fisher on Deron Williams, and Lamar Odom on Carlos Boozer. I fully expect those two to score at will. But it works both ways, the Jazz's interior defense is awful, I don't think they can stop Pau Gasol or Odom at all.

The key here is Andrei Kirilenko on Kobe; Kirilenko is as good a defender as you can ever put on Kobe, but I still don't think he can keep Kobe from controlling this series. I expect both teams to score a lot of points, but the Lakers to score just slightly easier. Kobe will do what he does, but if it comes down to Gasol & Odom getting layups/dunks and Boozer & Williams getting jumpers--much the same narrative as the Lakers-Nuggets series--the Lakers win.

SPURS-HORNETS

Oh my god, this series is going to be awesome. It's old vs. new, experience vs. energy, talent vs. talent. The conventional wisdom is that the Spurs take this somewhat easily, with the Hornets maybe not quite ready for primetime. I don't see that, I think this is a total coin flip. I see some major issues for the Spurs in this series, starting with the obvious--Chris Paul is a matchup nightmare for them. The Spurs put Bruce Bowen on Steve Nash, but I don't think he can handle the insanely quick Paul. The Spurs beat the Suns largely because Tony Parker so thoroughly outplayed Steve Nash; but in this series, PG is all of a sudden a matchup that the Spurs probably lose--to what degree is a question that will play the defining role in the outcome of this series.

There's a wide range of opinion on Chris Paul's defensive ability, whether he's a lock down type defender or an overrated steals guy--this series will go a long way for me. If you want to test your perimeter defense skills, Tony Parker is the guy to do it against. FWIW, I'm slightly in the "overrated steals guy" camp, and I expect Parker to score at will--but I think Paul will be even better on the offensive end and will control this series.

The Spurs have a good matchup against the underrated David West with their ability to put Tim Duncan on him--but that leaves Tyson Chandler to wreak havoc on the glass, on the fearsome Hornets' alley-oop, and defensively in terms of controlling the lane (if they don't end up having to put him on Duncan, which they might have to). West can take you out to 15-20 feet with his excellent jumper, that means Duncan might be spending some time away from the rim; if that's the case, I can see Chandler causing some serious problems for the Spurs. Oberto and Thomas are good players, but they can't hang with Chandler's size, athleticism and incredible energy level. Not to mention that if you can take Duncan away from the basket, it opens things up for Paul's penetration. I don't think Bruce Bowen can contain Paul, and I know Tony Parker can't--the question is whether the "San Antonio Spurs team" can.

Here's a key question for me: how does New Orleans handle Ginobili? The usual Hornets' starter at SG is Morris Peterson, I think that's a huge mismatch in the Spurs favor. But the Hornets do have tough guy Bonzi Wells on the bench, I wouldn't mind seeing him mix it up with Ginobili at crunch time--that would be fun to watch. I wonder if Ginobili takes super-sub Jannero Pargo, who was oustanding in the Dallas series, out of the game somewhat. The Hornets like to go with that small backcourt of Paul and Pargo at the same time, but Ginobili would wreck Pargo. I guess maybe you could stick Pargo on Bowen and have a SF like Peterson, Wells or Julian Wright on Ginobili--that's the problem in going with a defensive specialist like Bowen, it allows the other team to hide a crappy defender by having him hang out with Bowen in the corner.

This is going to be good, man, this is going to be fun. I guess I'll take the Spurs to win it, but I think it's going to be a hell of a lot harder than everyone thinks.

PLAYOFF UPDATE

2008-04-29T11:49:00.001-07:00

LAKERS-NUGGETS

The Lakers finished up a sweep of the uninspired Nuggets, Kobe ending up averaging 34-5-6, Gasol 22-9-5, and Carmelo shooting .364 in a beyond horrible series. At least the Nuggets got a glimpse of what Linas Kleiza and JR Smith (23 & 22, respectively) might be in the future, and even got a few minutes of PT from the ever-promising and ever-elusive Nene. This team has some pieces and potential, but I think we can call the Carmelo-Iverson experiment a raging failure. Unfortunately for them, I don't think there's a chance in hell Iverson outs out of his contract this year when he sees what options are out there and who (nobody) wants to pay him $20M/year.

CELTICS-HAWKS

How about those Hawks?! They held court at home to force a 2-2 tie with Boston, which seemed almost impossible after the first two blowouts. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves on a player who struggles with consistency, but Josh Smith was absolutely phenomenal in the two games, going for 27-9-6 in game three and 28-6-2 with 7 blocks in game four. He really bothered Garnett on the defensive end, Garnett had a hard time dealing with Smith's incredible athleticism. Smith is only 22 and the sky's the limit, but this is also a guy who scored 19 total over the first two games on 6-23 shooting; in other words, he's just not at the stage where he can bring it every night, and that's what separates the true superstars from the other good players. But again, he's 22--Smith has a chance to be something special. I'll be really curious to see what he and the rest of the young Hawks do in games 5-6-7. I still don't think they'll win it, but it would be great if they could keep the Celts working til the end. And, hey, there's always the 2007 Warriors, I guarantee that series is in the dark recesses of the minds of the Celtic players.

PISTONS-SIXERS

Detroit is still the better team, I'm absolutely convinced of that, but they're having a hard time matching Philly's athleticism and energy level. I often think that when people believe they see a disparity in effort level, it's more about a disparity in talent, but not here--the Pistons need to play harder, plain and simple. Philadelphia is young and unseasoned, and they've already shown in this series that they can't handle ugly, physical NBA playoff basketball--when the Pistons make the game tough and physical, they win. When they don't, Philly wins. The Pistons know what they have to do, and I expect a comfortable win tonight (as does Vegas, the line is 9). If not, and if it's because their energy and toughness level isn't there again, I'm officially removing the Pistons from my list of potential NBA champions.

SPURS-SUNS

We can add Tony Parker's 41 & 12 in game three to the list of incredible playoff performances this year, he dominated that game as much as any six footer has ever dominated a crucial playoff game. He was unbelievable, flawless, he did whatever he wanted against any individual defender and against any team defense alignment. The Suns bounced back in game 4 to open the door ever so slightly, but as you surely have heard 47 times, NO NBA TEAM HAS EVER COME BACK FROM 3-0. Game 5 tonight is big, if the Suns steal it on the road they have a game at home to force a superhuge game 7 with all the momentum and all the sports world focusing on San Antonio to see if they pull the historic choke job. But I don't see it happening; I just think the Spurs are better and tougher, and that they'll end this thing tonight, leaving a potentially epic series with the unproven-but-extremely-talented Hornets in the conference semis.
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ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

1 Kevin Durant
2. Al Horton
3. Who cares?

It was kind of a sucky year for rookies, but I still don't think this class was a disappointment--far from it, in fact, I think this is potentially a monster class. I see a lot of talent out there, and guys who just didn't get a chance to put up big numbers for whatever reason--injury, stuck on a good team, playing for a rookie-hating coach, etc. Instead of focusing on the rookie of the year voting, I'm going to look at how I'd rank the 2007 class based on who I'd most want for the next 10 years:

1. Greg Oden. Nothing's changed here, Oden is reported to be healing nicely, and he still has the most potential of anyone in the class.

2. Kevin Durant. A somewhat rough start as he struggled with shot selection, but after the break he averaged 22 PPG on .476 shooting (.885 from the FT line). And he's 19, he won't be 20 until the start of next season. That's impressive. His all-around game needs a lot of work, there's no way someone who's 6'9 with great hops and a gigantic wingspan should be getting 4.4 boards per game, but that'll come with confidence and physical strength--Durant is at a minimum going to be an elite scorer, a 27-30 ppg guy, and has a good chance to develop into an all-around superstar. I'd still take Oden, but only by a hair.

3. Julian Wright. Regular readers know I've been falling in love with this kid for the last 3 months, I'm now fully and completely infatuated. Wright is big--a heavily muscled 6'8, 230 small forward; he's athletic; he's extremely skilled. In short, he has it all. He hasn't gotten much PT on a stacked Hornets team, but believe me, he'll work his way into the rotation by next year, you can't keep this kind of talent down. He's not a big time scorer, at least he wasn't at Kansas, but he has smooth scoring moves and a surprisingly sweet stroke on the J (with 3 point range), and his value comes from his versatility: he's an outstanding rebounder, gifted passer and strong one-on-one defender. This guy has *big time* written all over him.

4. Brandan Wright. Stuck on the Warriors with their notoriously rookie-hating coach Don Nelson, this Wright too was also only able to show flashes of his considerable potential, but I loved what little I saw. Wright is ridiculously athletic and silky smooth. He's undersized for a PF at 6'9 210, but he's only 20, he'll be able to add bulk and strength. Plus he plays taller than his 6'9 by having one of those incredible wingspans--combined with his hops and timing, he'll be a major shotblocker in the league. After the all star break when he finally started getting some regular PT, he averaged a full block per game in just 12 minutes. Wright also has some nice hands and should be a double digit guy on the boards. His offensive game is a little raw right now, but when he flashes his potential with a sweet turnaround J, or a bankshot from 12 feet out, I swoon. Jordan will soon be kicking himself in the balls for trading Wright away for Jason Richardson, mark my words.

5. Al Horford. I don't think Horford has superstar potential, unlike these other four, but I think he can be just below that level. Horford's a tough kid, he doesn't mind mixing it up inside and has already demonstrated he can really defend and rebound at this level--he's been a beast in the playoff series with the Celtics, averaging 12.5 & 11.5 and really helping the Hawks control the paint. However, I don't think he'll ever be a big shotblocker, and I don't think he'll ever be a 20 PPG scorer. I could easily be wrong about that, Horford's only 21 and could get a lot better.

Best of the rest, in no particular order:

Rodney Stuckey. A legitimate 6'5 point guard who can defend. He's a reliable jumpshot away from stardom.

Mike Conley. Another guy who could really use a jumper. Conley had moments where he oozed potential, and moments where he took a step backwards. I'm still high on him, and he's only 20, but I'll be expecting much bigger things from him next year. If not, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Memphis toss Javaris Crittenton in their "PG of the future" mix.

Jeff Green. Green has size and athleticism, but a funky set of skills where it make take him a while to figure out how to be a productive NBA player. He can do a lot of things well, but needs more reliable scoring moves.

Thaddeus Young. Young is an athletic PF, the second youngest guy in the league to only Durant, and he made a solid contribution to a quality team--and now he's causing problems for no less than the Detroit Pistons. In 55 starts, Young averaged 11 & 5 and shot .553 from the floor. Big time potential. It's between him and Stuckey for my #6 pick.

Carl Landry. Landry, the first pick of the 2nd round, is one of those superathletic, undersized power forwards who have a good record of success in the NBA. I'm not sure if he has the all around game to make it as more than just a solid rotation player, but he's explosive around the basket--after the all-star break he averaged 9.2 ppg in just 19 minutes on .628 shooting. One negative is that Landry is already 24, so 2-3 years older than most of his fellow rookies; if he's going to develop a more well-rounded game, he better do it quick.

Some younger guys who haven't done much yet, but have flashed some potential:

Yi Jianliang
Spencer Hawes
Sean Williams
Javaris Crittenton
Daquan Cook

Worst pick in the entire draft:

Corey Brewer. This guy just can't play. He's 22 and played 3 years of college ball, so he's a lot more experienced than most of his fellow rookies. He was given extensive playing time by Minnesota and given every chance to be productive. And he averaged 6-4-1 in 23 minutes and shot a putrid .375 from the floor. He's a pretty good defender, but (a) not as good as they thought he'd be, and (b) not good enough to overcome being the worst offensive player in the league among people who got real PT. Brewer was just godawful; if you held the draft today, I don't think he'd go in the first round period.

PLAYOFF UPDATE

2008-04-24T10:58:00.000-07:00

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Other than the Philly upset of the Pistons in game one, there haven't been any surprises in the eastern conference. Boston is just killing Atlanta, Orlando has taken two from Toronto, and Cleveland has also held serve in a fugly series with Washington.

I expect Boston and Orlando to continue to roll, and I think Detroit made a statement in game two. Philly's an interesting team, young and athletic, but I don't think they can knock off the Pistons three more times.

So that leaves Cleveland-Washington. Cleveland won a tight one in game one, and blew the Wizards out in game two. Now it goes back to Washington for games 3 & 4 to see if the Wiz can make this into an interesting series. Washington is really struggling to shoot the ball, with FG% of .402 & .375 in the first two games, they need their big 3 (Arenas, Butler, Jamison) to get hot. Cleveland's a pretty good defensive team, but they're not great, they're not the Spurs, I think it's only a matter of time before Washington starts putting the ball in the hole. I'm not saying they'll win the series, but they can at least make Cleveland work for it. FWIW, Vegas has Washington as a comfortable 5 point favorite tonight.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Not much surprising here either, but the games have been wildly entertaining. So too have been the individual performances. Already we've had:

Kobe: 49pts, 10 assists
Paul: 35 & 10, followed up by 32 & 17 (OK, that's just ridiculous)
Gasol: 36, 16 & 8
Duncan: 40, 15 & 5
Parker: 32 & 7

The Utah-Houston series is as good as over, Utah winning the first two games on the road. This one's got 4-0 written all over it.

The Lakers are looking good in their series with Denver, taking the first two games with relative ease. As predicted, the Lakers are getting layups and dunks, the Nuggets are getting jumpshots. It's hard to win that way. But this thing isn't over yet, let's see if Denver can hold court at home in games 3 & 4 before we move the Lakers on to round two. I'll bet Denver takes at least one of the two games--but I'll be shocked if LA somehow blows the series.

So that'd set up a really intriguing Utah-LA series in round two, a series that I'd be pretty worried about. It's a tough matchup for the Lakers, Utah being one of the few teams with both an oustanding PG (Deron Williams) and an outstanding post threat (Carlos Boozer). Plus they have that one great defender, Andrei Kirilenko, to put on Kobe. But the Jazz aren't a great defensive team outside Kirilenko, and the Lakers usually thrive against good-offense/bad-defense type of teams. I'm not sure how this one would play out, I'll have to think about it some more.

On the other side of the bracket, we have two series that had a lot of initial promise but might be over more quickly than anticipated.

I suppose it's a bit unfair to say that of the Phoenix-San Antonio series. The Spurs have a 2-0 lead, but we'll see soon enough whether Phoenix can take games 3 & 4 at home and make things interesting again.

Game one was an epic battle, one of the great playoff games in recent memory. I hate to make a big deal of the "intangible" bullshit that TWMASWs always wildly overrate, but dammit if the Spurs doesn't seemingly always gut out tough wins like this. I mean, Duncan hitting a three to send it to OT? Gimme a break.

Phoenix's offense looks out of sort to me. The Spurs are sagging down on Amare & Shaq and daring the Suns to hit outside shots, and they just can't do it. A lot has been made of Grant Hill playing at less than 100%, and I do think that hurts them, but what would help the Suns even more is if Leandro Barbosa could get back on track. They need someone to make the Spurs pay, to make them play honest, and no one's doing it. If Barbosa can have one of those 25-point games with 3-4 threes, that would go a long way toward opening things up on the inside.

I also think Boris Diaw could end up playing a huge role in the rest of this series. San Antonio plays Bruce Bowen on Steve Nash, which leaves them without a small forward to play on Diaw when Phoenix goes big (i.e., with Diaw-Amare-Shaq in the frontcourt). In the latter part of game two, Phoenix started finding success running their offense through Diaw in the post. I'll be curious to see if they go back to it a lot in game three.

I guess Dallas still has a couple games at home to show what they can do, but man, New Orleans has looked really good in their two wins. Not that this is anything you didn't already know, but Chris Paul is a goddamn basketball genius. He has 67 points and 27 assists in the two games, and he's shooting .641 from the floor--he's simply an asskicking machine. The Mavs made the Devin Harris-Jason Kidd trade to deal with bigger guards, but Kidd's about 7 steps slower than in his younger days and he's very vulnerable to the quicker PGs like Paul. But the Mavs tried Jason Terry on him, it didn't make a difference.

I don't think they're ever going to stop Paul unless he's just having a bad shooting night, but there is some hope for Dallas yet if they can clamp down on Peja, who's been scorching hot with 9 threes in the 2 games, and David West, who's quiet brilliance won't be so quiet if he keeps playing like this through the playoffs.

I'll be really curious to see what Dallas brings in game three with their season on the line. I think they still have a slight chance, but even if they can hold down Peja & West they still have a really unfavorable matchup at center, where Erick Dampier can't hang with Tyson Chandler's energy and athleticism. If the Mavs are going to somehow pull out this series, Dirk has to play like an MVP. He needs to wreck David West on the offensive end. And they need Josh Howard to snap out of his funk (7-26 shooting in the first two games). And they need Jason Kidd to channel his 2002 self. In other words, I think the Mavs are in big trouble.

APRIL, MAY AND JUNE MADNESS

2008-04-17T14:28:00.000-07:00

The real NBA season starts tomorrow with game one of four different series, and I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve. The first round of the NBA playoffs is usually like the first round of the NCAA tournament--there might be an upset here and there, but the higher seeded team usually wins. But man, this year, especially in the West, it's just a total crapshoot.

I think the East will play to form with Boston and Detroit cruising (even though the Pistons have a tough, gritty Philly team that's been playing great since the all-star break, I just don't see Detroit struggling to win this one), and the Magic stomping on a downward-spiraling Toronto. That leaves a toss-up between Cleveland and Washington for the right to get hammered by Boston in the second round. I guess I'll take Cleveland here, but they're an ugly team and could easily be ripe for the plucking--with or without Gilbert Arenas making a huge contribution.

But the West is where all the action is, and I frankly have no idea what's going to happen in these series. The only upset that would surprise me in the least would be Denver over the Lakers, the other three are practically coin flips.

Here's how I see things:

LAKERS-NUGGETS

It's not that Denver's an easy matchup--they aren't. At all. But you have to pick your poison in the superstacked west, and this is the team I wanted the Lakers to play. I think LA will win, but I don't think it (or any other series) will be a walkover. My only real worry is who guards Iverson, but I think LA can and will still take them with Iverson putting up big numbers. Iverson can still light up the scoreboard with the best of 'em, but the Lakers will get any shot they want all series along against the Nuggets' godawul defense.

(BTW, this is one of many teams the Lakers would destroy if they had Andrew Bynum back; that'd allow LA to put Bynum on Camby (win), Gasol on Kenyon Martin (win), and Lamar Odom on Carmelo (loss, but it's a hell of a lot better than putting Vladimir Radmanovic or Luke Walton on him).

NEW ORLEANS-DALLAS

What an awesome first round series this is going to be. After starting out terribly after the Kidd trade, Dallas has settled down a bit and has been playing good ball. Not great ball, but good, and they're taking more advantage of Kidd's skills than they were earlier on. Dallas just beat New Orleans last night when the Hornets were going all out to knock Dallas into the 8th spot and get Denver as a first round matchup. And then you have the Hornets as this group of young and unproven players going up against one of the most battled-tested teams in the league.

I still think New Orleans is going to win this series. Vegas has them as a favorite, albeit a small one (about 58% to win). The teams split the season series, so that's more or less a wash. I guess I just think that people are underrating the Hornets' talent. Not Chris Paul, of course everyone sees his genius, but David West, Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic, Bonzi Wells and Jannero Pargo (hey, he can play) off the bench, Julian Wright as a future superstar and solid contributor for now--this team has some serious talent. Some people say they might be a year away, and they might be, but I'm going with CP3 and New Orleans here over a Dallas team that's well below where they've been the last few years.

PHOENIX-SAN ANTONIO

Holy crap, what a gift from the basketball gods. Two heavyweights who utterly despise each other duking it out in the first friggin round! It's unbelievable. Anyone with a sense of justice has to be rooting for Phoenix after David Stern stepped in last year and handed San Antonio that series on a silver platter by suspending Amare in one of the all-time most bogus sports commissioner moves.

San Antonio won't go down easy, they're tough as nails. They're also old and creaky, but they might have just enough to get a last championship run in if they can stay perfectly healthy throughout. San Antonio will have its usual problems getting killed by Amare and Nash, but they'll also have their usual strengths: Tony Parker making absolute mincemeat out of Nash on the other end, and the old pro Duncan getting Amare into foul trouble--and getting under Amare's skin. At least this year Phoenix has two big men who can take on Duncan defensively, and I think that's one of the main reasons they did the Shaq trade.

So who do I have here? Well, I'm praying for Phoenix to take out these buttwipes once and for all. But I don't think they're going to do it--I'll predict San Antonio in an epic 7-gamer. God, I hope I'm wrong.

HOUSTON-UTAH

No real strong feelings here, I sorta like both these teams. I guess I'd rather the Lakers play Houston in the next round, but Utah wouldn't be a terrible matchup either.

Houston has struggled quite a bit since the winning streak ended, but they did kill Phoenix in a crucial game last week, so I'm not sure what to think about them. I do know that Utah is a very solid team and extremely hard to beat at home (37-4 on the year)--and they have home court advantage. Vegas has Utah at about 70% to win, and I'm going to take them too. Houston certainly proved me wrong when I predicted they'd immediately fall out of the playoff race after Yao's injury; they're a tough, energetic, smart team, but I just don't think they have the horses to beat a solid club like Utah 4 times.

So there it is, take it for what it's worth--4 predictions I feel good about, 4 coin tosses. Let the battles begin.

LAKERS OUTLAST HORNETS IN WESTERN CONFERENCE SHOWDOWN

2008-04-11T22:40:00.000-07:00

Unbelievable game tonight. The Lakers jump out to a 30 point lead, only for the Hornets to steadily cut it down (with classic NBA "even up" officiating (to go along with fantastic Hornets' defense)) to 6. The Lakers build it back up to 13, and Peja Stojakovic starts a insane bombing campaign that brings it down to 1. In the end--shockingly--it was the Lakers' defense that was the difference, holding the Hornets scoreless on about 5 straight possessions down the stretch to clinch it.

In the game-within-the-game, the MVP race between Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant, both participants were fantastic. Kobe had 29, 10 & 8, with just one turnover, and Paul had 15, 6, and 17 assists with four steals. Paul did have a rough shooting game, 4-13 from the floor, thanks to the outstanding individual defense played by Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar and the total team effort in helping out those two when Paul broke 'em down. Kobe outplayed him, and Paul stunk down the stretch when New Orleans couldn't get a good shot off to save their lives, but it's just one game, you can't decide the MVP race on that. Whoever you had going into the game should be your vote coming out of it. But I'll bet a lot of votes were influenced tonight, which tells you everything you need to know about the dipshits who vote for the NBA MVP.

Phoenix lost to Houston tonight, so it looks like they'll probably end up in that #6 slot with Houston at #5. That means that the Lakers-Spurs game Sunday will be enormous--the winner of that one will likely end up a 1 or 2 seed and playing Denver/Dallas; the loser will likely be the #3 seed and playing Phoenix. And I'm worried. I don't know if the Lakers can come off an emotional and high-energy win like tonight's and play strong a day and half later. And when you don't come ready to play against San Antonio, you lose. It's in LA, but I'm not sure home court will matter much in such a huge game--you know there won't be any home cooking officiating with all the world watching.

The good news is that the Lakers now probably have the (conference record) tiebreaker over New Orleans unless some weird stuff happens, so if they win Sunday, they have a great shot at that #1 seed. New Orleans would still need to lose 1 game, but they're at Dallas to close the season, and have a classic trap game tomorrow at Sacramento. But the key is getting either the 1 or 2, I just don't want any piece of Phoenix in a 7 game series.

GETTING DOWN TO THE WIRE

2008-04-09T12:31:00.000-07:00

With around 5 games left in the regular season, things are just as wacky as ever in the wackiest season in recent sports memory.

EASTERN CONFERNCE

The Eastern Conference is more or less set, with only some jockeying between Washington, Philadelphia and Toronto for the 5-6-7 spots left. A potential Cleveland-Washington first round series could be intriguing--Cleveland has been stinking up the joint lately, and Washington now has super-wildcard Gilbert Arenas back. Of course the Wizards haven't been setting the world on fire lately either, Arenas has only been able to play 20 minutes per in his first two games before having to rest on the 2nd game of a back-to-back, and now Antawn Jamison has been out the last couple games with a shoulder injury (although he's expected back tonight).

But if those two can get healthy, I think it could be a really tough series for Cleveland. The big Ben Wallace trade probably did make them a little better, but they're an awkward, weird team with a bunch of players of pretty much equal talent about whom I don't think coach Mike Brown has solidified his feelings. It's crunchtime in a playoff game, do you go with Delonte West or Daniel Gibson? Joe Smith or Anderson Varejao? Wally Sczerbiak or Devin Brown or Sasha Pavlovic? I don't know, and I don't really think Brown knows either.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Western Conference, by contrast, is completely un-set, with the #1 seed up for grabs, two division championships (and guaranteed top 4 seeds) up for grabs, and the last playoff spot up for grabs. The Lakers, for example, could very realistically finish anywhere from the #1 seed to the #6 seed--with only 4 games left! Insanity.

OK, let's talk #1 seed. I think New Orleans will hold off San Antonio's fast and furious charge. New Orleans has a one game lead, they have an easier schedule over the final 5 games, and they have a better division and conference record (the next tie-breakers after head-to-head, which was a 2-2 split for these teams). But they each still have games left with the Lakers, so things could change pretty quickly. If the Lakers can manage to win out (the other 2 games are walkovers, if there's any such thing for a team with all the mental focus of an ADHD-afflicted puppy), they still have a good chance of grabbing the 1 seed.

But then the Lakers could still conceivably lose the division to Phoenix and finish outside of the top 4 seeds. It's unlikely, the Lakers have a game lead and win on the head-to-head tiebreaker, but it'll happen if they drop those 2 games (or choke in one of the "walkovers") and Phoenix wins out.

So I think the top 4 seeds will be New Orleans, San Antonio, Los Angeles, and other division winner Utah, but a hell of a lot can happen over these last 7 days of the regular season.

That would leave Houston and Phoenix fighting it out for the 5 & 6 seeds, which means...what? It means that the 3 and 4 seeds (currently the Lakers & Utah) could either be playing a Yao-less Houston who's only 6-5 since their winning streak ended, losing to every good team they've played--or you get Phoenix, who everyone in the conference is afraid to play. That's a big difference. To put it in perspective, Vegas has Houston at 15-1 to win the conference; Phoenix is at 4-1, ahead of everyone except the Lakers and Spurs.

Then you have Dallas, who looks like they've solidified the 7 seed. I don't think this team can win the conference (Vegas has them at 10-1), but it's definitely not a team I want to play in the first friggin' round of the playoffs. I'm hoping the Lakers get the 3 seed and get a 6 seeded Houston, avoiding that Phoenix/Dallas trap at the 5 & 7 seeds (this would assume Phoenix overtakes Houston's half-game lead for the 5 spot, which I think they will). I think the Lakers can beat Dallas, don't get me wrong, but each of their four games against the Mavs this year has been an all-out war. Even if they win the series, I think it'll take a lot out of them.

The Mavs still aren't the same team they've been the last couple of years, but I think they're starting to figure out how to get more value out of Jason Kidd; in the last game against the Lakers, they ran a heck of a lot more than I've seen them do since the Nash era. And they've managed to finally beat some good teams, which they were struggling to do since the trade, knocking off their archnemesis Golden State and notching a very solid win at Phoenix. I don't care who you are in the Western Conference, I'd be real leery of a playoff series with these guys.

Finally, we have Denver and Golden State, a couple of "score first, worry about defense later" doppelgangers, shooting it out for the final playoff spot. They're dead even, with an epic battle tomorrow (@ GS) that will probably (but not definitely) decide which one's in. Everyone in the conference is praying it's Denver since nobody, but nobody, wants to go up against Golden State in a playoff series, but I personally hope it's the Warriors. Even though the Lakers still have a shot at the 1 seed and would have to play in that nightmare matchup, I just admire how the Warriors go about their business. Not just because they run up and down the floor and hoist up shots and do cool stuff, although that's a lot of it. But I also like how tough they are, everyone always having to defend bigger and stronger players (which NBA players hate doing), and never complaining about it. They might not be a great defensive team, but it's certainly not for lack of effort; the aptly-named Warriors bust their asses out there in each and every game.

I think New Orleans, San Antonio or the Lakers would take 'em, but I wouldn't bet my life against another stunning upset. And the Warriors would make any of those teams have to work and sweat to make it through to the next round. Denver, on the other hand, I think would be easy fodder for any of the top teams. They and Houston are my dream first round matchups, the only two teams out of the eight possibilities who I know the Lakers can beat with or without Andrew Bynum.

It's amazing that there's still so much up in the air with just a handful of games left, I can't ever remember a season even remotely like this one. And once those games are finished and the playoff spots are finally determined, that's when the real wackiness starts. Have you ever seen 4 first round playoff series where you weren't positive about any of them? Here are the current matchups, tell me which one of these you'd bet your house on:

New Orleans-Golden State
San Antonio-Dallas
Lakers-Phoenix
Utah-Houston

THE STATE OF THE EAST

2008-04-01T11:09:00.000-07:00

The state of the Eastern Conference is bad, I'm not going to lie to you, but it does have several things going for it:

1. Its elite teams, Boston and Detroit, are just as good as anyone in the West, so the important thing is that we'll likely have a great Finals regardless of the interconference talent imbalance.

2. The rest of the conference might not be as good as their western counterparts, but there are some interesting teams and some possibly interesting series looming. More on that in a second.

3. Lebron James

So let's get to it.

THE CONTENDERS

Boston

As you probably expect, Boston is being made a huge favorite to win the conference--sportsbook.com has them at 1-3 vs. the Pistons at 5-2. Personally, I think that's nuts. I think they definitely deserve to be the favorite, but not by such a huge margin. They have a tough road to the finals, with Lebron and company lurking in that conference semifinals round. That's absolutely a conceivable upset, especially if Cleveland's shooters can get hot. And then there's what most likely would be an epic showdown with Detroit for the conference championship--two talented, veteran teams, an old school playoff series with flagship franchises. I'm excited just thinking about it.

Boston is back to playing some great ball after a tiny hiccup in February. They went 13-3 in March, with wins over Phoenix, New Orleans, @Dallas, @Houston, @San Antonio and Detroit. They're getting a very nice contribution from their starting role players, Rondo (11 & 5 since the break) and Kendrick Perkins (7.5 & 7.5 on .692 shooting with 2 blocks per), and also from their bench with James Posey, Eddie House, Leon Powe, Tony Allen and Glenn Davis. Sam Cassell has been a real disappointment for them so far, he's shooting poorly and is a major defensive liability, but he could still possibly pay off in the playoffs.

This is a damn good team. They're fully healthy, they're a matchup nightmare for anyone, and their biggest concern coming into the season--depth--looks to solid enough, it'll be hard to take these guys down...

Detroit

...but that doesn't mean it can't be done. The Pistons stumbled a bit in mid-March with 4 losses in 10 games, but in the last week the team bounced back to beat a red-hot Phoenix in one of the best NBA games of the year (without an injured Rip Hamilton), and crushed nemesis Cleveland on Saturday.

What I really like about Detroit's chances is that their starters have played low minutes on the year--all 5 between 30 & 34 minutes per game--a change from previous years where they were at more like 36 minutes per. The reason they've been able to do this is the emergence of one of the stronger benches in the league, led by Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Jarvis Hayes, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, and the old pro (and underrated signing) Theo Ratliff. I expect these guys to have less impact in the playoffs when Flip tightens up the rotation, but their contribution in the regular season will allow the starters to be fresher for the championship run, and that's extremely valuable.

I think the keys for this team against Boston (and I'm certainly not counting out the possibility of an Orlando upset in the semis) is what their keys always are: Chauncey & Sheed. The Celtics are probably the better team, but the Pistons present two major matchup problems: Rajon Rondo can't guard Chauncey Billups, and Kevin Garnett (famously) can't guard Rasheed Wallace...WHEN Rasheed is in the post, that is. Those two matchups are what makes me think Detroit has a better chance than Vegas is giving them credit for. What was disturbing in the last game from a few weeks ago was that while Billups once again ripped Rajon Rondo, Rondo also ripped Chauncey pretty good. That matchup needs to be a slamdunk for the Pistons to win the series, they can't have Rondo scoring at will when it's already so hard to match up with their Big 3.

SPOILER (and just maybe more)

Cleveland

OK, I think Cleveland's a pretty average team, while Boston and Detroit are as good as anyone in the league--but I'm just not counting out Lebron James period. He thrives in playoff basketball, and he guarantees that their opponent will always have one matchup where they get destroyed. The guy is averaging 31-8.5-7.5 since the all-star break, if you don't fear this team in a 7-game playoff, you're crazy.

A couple of other things going on here:

a. Zydrunas Ilgauskas got in the time machine and went back to 2004, because he's averaging 15 & 9 with 2 blocks since the all-star break. He's an old, slow, broken guy, but he can still cause problems for people.

b. The absolute key for Cleveland is their shooting. With Lebron commanding an entire defense's attention, shooters will be open. If Gibson, Szczerbiak, Jones, West and Pavlovic are hitting those open threes, now whattya do?

Basically this team's chances come down to a bunch of 'ifs', and teams like that don't usually win. But if they shoot well, if Ilgauskas can keep up this energy level, if Varejao gets his head out and starts shooting better than 36% from the floor, and when Lebron kicks the crap out of everyone, the Cavs are capable of pulling the upset on either of the two big boys.

INTERESTING TEAM (but I don't think so)

ORLANDO

I like Orlando and think they're a quality team, but I don't think they can beat Detroit in that semifinal series--and could even conceivably lose to a dangerous Philly/Washington/Toronto in the first round. Like Cleveland, they have that same one-man-matchup-nightmare in Dwight Howard, but like Cleveland they're also really dependent on their outside shooting. When Lewis, Turkoglu, Bogans, et al are on, Orlando can play with anyone, but they're inconsistent enough that they can lose to anyone too. In my experience, the big 3-shooting teams never run the gauntlet because sooner or later their shooting is going to cool off and they won't be able to score--especially in the playoffs where tougher-than-normal defense is played (and allowed by the officials).

Plus they have shaky guard play, which a defensive team like the Pistons thrives on. Their team assists to turnovers is 20.4 to 14.0; for comparison, the Pistons are at 22.6 to 11.0. I'm also not sure if Dwight Howard, at just 22, is ready to score 30 a game if that's what it takes for them to win a tough series. Not for lack of effort, Howard plays as hard as anyone in the league--I just don't know if he has the game for it yet (once again, especially in the more physical playoffs). When Shaq was scoring 30 a game in the Lakers' championship runs, it wasn't all dunks and layups, he had to pull out a whole bag of post-scoring tricks to get those points. I don't think Howard has that ability to score in a bunch of different ways yet.

Howard's going to keep getting better and better, and when he does I think Orlando will be right there with the Lakers, Hornets, Trail Blazers and other 2010-2011-2012 championship competitors--but I don't think they're there yet.

DON'T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN

I think the eastern conference playoffs will go to form, with Detoit beating Orlando and Boston beating Cleveland in the semifinals--but I won't be completely shocked if one of Philadelphia, Washington or Toronto pulls off a major upset. These teams all have something to offer:

Philadelphia: A smart, tough team that's been playing great ball for a while; they're 19-7 in their last 26 (a 60-win pace) and they've knocked off many good teams -- @Boston, Denver, San Antonio, @Detroit, @Phoenix, Orlando, Dallas.

Washington: A good team now that Caron Butler is healthy, potentially more than that when they get Gilbert Arenas back (which could be shortly). They're an unorthodox team that causes big mismatch problems with Butler, Jamison and Arenas. They could fizzle out in 4 or be the next Warriors-type giant killers.

Toronto: They were disastrous for most of the month of March, but have steadied the ship a little since Chris Bosh has come back from injury, going 4-3 in their last 7. I don't think they have a ton of talent, but it is a hard team to match up with. Bosh is going to kill your best interior defender with his quickness and skill, they have two outstanding PGs, and a whole host of guys who can shoot the ball. They have a puncher's chance.

THE STATE OF THE WEST

2008-03-25T11:12:00.000-07:00

The state of the West is strong--but less strong than it was before Dirk Nowitzi went down with an injury that will greatly endanger once-proud Dallas' chances of making the playoffs. Dallas is currently sitting in the #7 spot in the Western Conference, a game ahead of Golden State and 1.5 games ahead of #9 Denver--in other words, the Mavs are hanging by a thread. Now Dirk is out for a minimum of two weeks, which would leave him 4-5 games in the regular season in a wildly optimisic best case scenario. More likely, he misses the rest of the regular season and possibly even some of the playoffs (which would probably be moot).

I'm pretty bummed. I realize this makes the Lakers job a little easier, but that's not what I want--I want all the Western teams at full power and let's see who can scrap, sweat and bleed their way to the top of the heap. To be fair, Dallas was one of the lesser contenders--they still haven't beaten a +.500 team since the Jason Kidd trade--but I for one still hadn't counted them out.

But now I have. I don't see how they can hold off Golden State and Denver, they're just not a very good team without Nowitzki. I'm sure Avery Johnson will get them to play their asses off the rest of the way and maybe Dirk's absence will allow them to run more and better take advantage of Jason Kidd's talents--but we're talking about two talented teams behind them. I'll be shocked (and very disappointed) if Golden State ends up the odd man out, but I'm pretty sure they won't be. And if Denver doesn't make up the ground on Dallas now, I think they should fire George Karl, disband the roster completely and start over.

So what about everyone else?

I don't even know who I'd make the favorite to win the conference, to be perfectly honest. I'm standing by my assertion that the Lakers will not win it unless Andrew Bynum can come back and be healthy enough to get 32 minutes and 12 & 10. The Lakers are a very bad defensive team without Bynum, pretty solid with him--it's a big difference, especially against the strong offensive teams that'll be in the Western Conference playoffs.

And every bit of information on Bynum in the last month has been negative. Not horribly negative, but that return date conspicuously keeps getting pushed farther and farther back--now we're hoping he'll be ready for the start of the playoffs. As I've posted about before, when Bynum does return, he's not going to be the dominant force he was when he left. He doesn't have 5 years of stardom to draw on, he has about 2 months. Not only does he have to learn to trust his knee again, not only does he have to get in playoff-basketball condition (I mean, can he run the floor 30+ minutes against Golden State?), not only does he have to get his touch down on his shot and timing down on his block attempts--he also has to learn to integrate smoothly with Pau Gasol. That's a lot. That's not going to be super smooth, and I doubt it'll all happen until the 2nd or 3rd round if at all. And that's assuming he's back in the lineup on game one of series one, which is a huge question mark right now. Trust me, don't go putting your life savings on the Lakers right now, this team needs a lot to happen.

FWIW, Vegas is a lot more optimistic about either the return of Bynum or the Lakers' ability to win the conference without Bynum at 100%, as they have LA as a solid favorite in the West at 11-10--so almost 50/50 to make it to the NBA Finals. I don't see it that way.

So ignoring the gigantic wild card that is the Lakers, who's my favorite right now?

1. Phoenix

Honest to god, I think it's Phoenix. After a horrid start with Shaq, the Suns are back to playing great basketball. Unusual basketball, a different kind of basketball, but great basketball. Don't get me wrong, they can still score a ton, they had been over 110 in 8 of their last 9 games before a 110-105 loss to Detroit last night. But they just don't look anything like the old Suns, with Marion running in the open floor, guys like James Jones and Tim Thomas rifling up threes, etc. They still have their bread-and-butter standby, the unstoppable pick-and-roll with Nash & Amare--Amare is averaging 28.5 over the last month and is the MVP of this team. You heard me. The Suns have one unstoppable offensive weapon on this team--Amare--and if they didn't have him, they'd actually be a pretty easy team to defend.

But let's not get too ahead of ourselves here, the Suns still have a lot to prove. They've benefitted from a favorable schedule during their recent success, they have no depth, they have poor perimeter shooting which allows good teams to sag down on Amare & Shaq, and it remains to be seen whether Shaq's health and conditioning level can stand up to a brutal and long playoff run. This isn't the perfect team....but neither is anyone else in the West.

2. New Orleans

I was a doubter for a long time, but they've broken me down, I've given in. The Hornets have a lot of talent, a lot of athleticism, an outstanding leader in Chris Paul, and now a little bit of depth with the addition of the very underrated Bonzi Wells and the emergence of rookie Julian Wright (reminder: I love this guy).

They have more balance than probably any of the other Western contenders, ranking 6th in points-per-possession and 5th in points-allowed-per-possession. They can score, and they can stop you from scoring, and--thanks to the greatness of Chris Paul--they just don't make a lot of mistakes and beat themselves.

BTW, in 17 games since the all-star break, Chris Paul is averaging:

24.4 ppg
3.8 rpg
12.0 apg
2.3 to (a 5.2 assist-to-TO ratio)
3.1 steals
.558 FG% (!)
.472 3PT FG% (!!)

Unreal. And he's only 22. I still think everyone in the league takes Kobe or Lebron with the first pick if they're heading into this year's playoffs, but if Paul wins the MVP--I won't complain.

My sense, and the sense of most basketball people, was that this team was always a year or two away. I don't think that anymore, I think they have a legitimate chance to win this whole thing. They have a lot of strengths, not many weaknesses, and they have Chris Paul and the other teams don't.

3. San Antonio

I know. I know. I know they've played like crap lately, I know they can't beat good teams, I know they can't win on the road, I know all of that. But I'm not counting these guys out until they're lieing on the floor gasping and bloodied. And decapitated (so forget the gasping). I'm not the only one either, Vegas has the Spurs at 3-1 to win the West, so they're still giving these crafty old fuckers a 25% chance of making it to the finals (thereby destroying all the good momentum the NBA has built up this year).

Not much to say about this team, you know what they can do and what they can't do. They play moderately efficient offense, they play killer defense, they get away with a million fouls per game (and draw another bunch of bogus calls) because they're smart, crafty, and the NBA game is called largely on reputation. I will be praying to the basketball gods to deliver us from a Spurs championship in each series they play. I don't think they can do it this year, I suspect like a lot of people do that their age is finally catching up with them, but I'm sure as hell not counting any chickens. If they get a favorable run of matchups, watch out.

4. Utah

Utah is the only other team that I think can win the conference. I love Golden State and those tough, undersized bastards, and I think they could easily pull another huge upset on certain big boys, but I don't think they can get the right matchups to make it all the way through. And they may be looking at a one-and-done if the current standings hold with LA at #1 and GS at #8. The Lakers played them even in a home-and-home without Bynum and Gasol, I don't think Golden State can take down LA with one or both of them back.

But as for Utah...they're a funny team, they're fantastic at home (30-4) and surprisingly poor on the road (16-21). Like the Lakers, they're an excellent offensive team and mediocre defensive team. They have a lot of size, athleticism and depth, but they're also prone to periods of dumb play where they turn the ball over a lot. It's hard to get a read on them.

But Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are proven playoff superstars, I wouldn't want to face this team in a 7-game series. Since trading for Kyle Korver, a much needed shooter, Utah has been a very tough beat, and I expect them to hang tight with anyone in the conference. Again, if things break right, I could conceivably see Utah being the team that squeaks out of the pack.

So what about Houston? I had my doubts for every single game of that astonishing, incredible, amazing 22-game streak, and I think that--finally--we're seeing them come back to earth with 3 ugly losses in their last 5 games (albeit to excellent teams--Boston, New Orleans and Phoenix). Vegas tellingly has them at 20-1 to win the West, with Dallas & Golden State both ahead of them at 15-1. I look at their roster and just can't see how that talent can translate into winning out in the most brutal conference playoff run in NBA history. I'm rooting for them to do well, but I increasingly think that they're a first round exit.

MVP RACE

2008-03-09T23:22:00.000-07:00

There's still a lot of basketball left to be played, so a lot can change here, but this is how I see the MVP race as of today (these aren't predictions, they're my personal opinions--which are obviously more valuable than the collective voting of a bunch of jagoff sportswriters who don't know anything about anything):

5. Kevin Garnett
4. Tracy McGrady
3. Chris Paul
2. Lebron James
1. C'mon.

Look, if you're going to penalize Kobe for having shitty teammates in the years he was clearly the best player in the league, I think you sure as hell have to give it to him now when he's still the best player in the league (or at least #1 and #1a with Lebron) and is now on one of the best teams in the league on top of it.

You know how Steve Nash "makes his teammates better"? You know how he magically made Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion and Leandro Barbosa better than Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown and Smush Parker? Well, now I guess Kobe is making Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom better than Larry Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Ben Wallace, cuz last I checked, the Lakers have the better record.

OK, enough of the retard sportswriter argument, in all honesty I'd pretty much call it a draw between James and Kobe. LBJ can do things Kobe can't, Kobe can do things LBJ can't. Kobe's playing the best ball of his career (coincidentally starting to share the ball the very second he got some quality teammates who can make some goddamn shots! It's extremely fortuitous that he stopped being a selfish, glory-hungry jerk who only cares about scoring titles right when they added/developed a bunch of good supporting talent). Meanwhile James is averaging an Oscar-like 33-9-8 since the all-star break. That's just sick.

If I have to pick one or the other, I'm giving it to Kobe as a sort-of lifetime achievement award. Lebron is going to win like 6 MVPs in his lifetime, especially since he seems to be immune from the "shitty teammate" penalty that's kept Kobe not only from winning it, but from rarely even being in the running--which basically says it all about the value of the NBA MVP award, it's an even bigger joke than the Heisman.

Chris Paul is having an amazing year on an amazing team, but I have him a hair behind the big two. People say he doesn't have that much supporting talent, but I completely disagree--are you watching these guys? David West is a no-bullshit superstar now. He's a junior Carlos Boozer. Sure, Paul makes him better, but West makes Paul better too. Half his baskets come on isolation where he either sticks his sweet J or blows past a defender, he's an impossible cover now. Tyson Chandler might be limited offensively, but his rebounding and shotblocking make him a top 5 center in the league. He's the most energetic big man in the league, and he has a nice pair of hands--that backcut alley oop from Paul is the Hornets' trademark play. Then you surround that big 3 with a bunch of good shooters led by Peja Stojakovic, who looks like the Peja of old with his ridiculous .466 3PT FG%. That's a lot of talent. They're not doing it with smoke and mirrors, this is a really good team that's going to be in the mix for many years.

So why put Paul at #3? Simple--he's not as good as Kobe or Lebron. See how I break things down for you here? Look, I know you love Chris Paul--so do I. I love him like a brother, I'm ecstatic that we have a player like him in the league. I think he has the potential to be one of the greatest PGs in NBA history. But be honest, if you're going into this year's playoffs and you can have one player, who you gonna call? You'd take Kobe or Lebron, and so would every single GM and coach in the NBA. Well, there you go, Paul's just not good enough (yet). But there's no shame being third fiddle to two of the 25 greatest players in league history.

Next I have T-Mac, who's done an unbelievable job keeping Houston among the league elites with Yao out. When is this guy going to get his due? No, he's not as good as Lebron or Kobe, but he's a really, really great player and he doesn't get half the credit he deserves. I swear to god, I'm starting to wonder about Yao as a "no-bullshit superstar", because it seems like Houston doesn't really miss a beat when he's (inevitably) injured.

Last is Garnett. I'm not penalizing him for being injured, he only missed like 8 games--but even with his outstanding leadership and all-around great game, I don't see him as being more deserving than the other 4 on the list. Yes, Boston has the best record in the league, but Garnett is also playing with 2 other superstars and the Celtics have also gotten very strong contributions from the supporting cast--Rajon Rondo in particular has been fantastic lately, I think he has a chance to do great things in the NBA.

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OTHER STUFF

Theo Ratliff, a recent signee of the Detroit Pistons, started against the Bulls for the injured Rasheed Wallace and came up with 10 & 8 with 3 blocks. See, this is why Joe Dumars is a genius, he understands the way to build a successful basketball team is "value for cost". Is Ratliff as good as Ben Wallace? Of course not. But he's half as good at 1/40th the price (literally), and that's the name of the game.

If you're a regular reader of this blog--or as regular as is possible with my sporadic posting--you know I've been pimping Monta Ellis for a while. Well, it looks like he's fully completed the jump to superstardom, what he's been doing lately is insane. Over the last month (12 games), Ellis is averaging 25-6-5 (against just 2 turnovers) and shooting .571 from the floor. For the season he's shooting .538, which puts him at #12 in the league--as a 6'2 rail-thin guard!

Yes, I think some of his success is from playing in a very stat-friendly Don Nelson offense, and I think some is due to playing with the great Baron Davis, but what this kid can do is flat-out amazing. He can penetrate and finish at the rim like Tony Parker, except that he has the athleticism of Dwyane Wade to go along with that blazing quickness. He can't shoot the 3, but his midrange game is downright deadly. He's an outstanding ballhandler (though not a natural PG), and plays tough ball-pressure defense to boot. And he's all of 22--the sky is the limit for this guy.

I'm happy to see Randy Foye back on the court after losing most of the season to injury. He struggled upon his return, he just didn't have the explosion to get to the rim and finish, but he's starting to find his groove now. In 6 March games, he's averaging a solid 15-3.5-5 and is shooting .471 from the floor and .400 from 3. If he can stay healthy, I'm expecting big things from him next year. He's just not going to be as good as Brandon Roy, for whom he was traded, that ship has sailed--but he might still end up a great player in his own right.

A player I didn't mention in my rookies/sophomores column, Julian Wright, has been getting some minutes lately with New Orleans and has looked fantastic. I loved him going into the draft, he just had the misfortune of going to a team with a lot of talent at the forward spots. But David West's recent injury opened up an opportunity, and Wright really grabbed it. In those 4 games he averaged 11.5 & 6 in just 24 minutes and shot .625 from the floor. Wright can do a lot of good things--he's got great size and athleticism, he's a tough rebounder in traffic, a solid defender, and while he's not much of a shooter, he does have some explosive moves around the rim. I love this guy, I think he might end up being the steal of the draft. Man--New Orleans is set. Put them in with the Lakers and Portland as teams that are well-positioned for the next 5 years.

Another rookie who's looking good lately is Brandan Wright on Golden State. If you'll recall, I said he was the hands-down third best player in this draft class and that teams were crazy for letting him fall to #8--and Charlotte crazy for trading him for Jason Richardson. Wright has been chained to the bench with the notoriously rookie-hating Don Nelson, but he's finally had some PT the last few weeks and has done very well with it--in 6 starts (with Webber and Biedrins sidelined), Wright put up an excellent 7 & 5 with 1.2 blocks in just 15 minutes per game. Wright has loads of potential, he's long as hell, silky smooth, and jumps out of the gym--he also shows some flashes of serious skill. He's way too skinny and weak right now, but he's 20 years old, it'll come.

(OK, so maybe I'm not the most prolific blogger in the world, but you have to admit that when I do write something, at least it's long enough to print out and take to the shitter--that's gotta count for something).

SHAQ...AGAIN

2008-02-25T10:18:00.001-08:00

I know I'm getting a little obsessed with this, but I personally think Shaq going to the Suns is one of the most compelling story lines in NBA history. How do you fit the ultimate round peg into the ultimate square hole?

The verdict in the early going? Not well.

(BTW, I do realize I keep going back and forth on this. Hey, new information keeps rolling in--I'll probably do a couple more flip-flops before it's all said and done.)

The Suns followed up a strong offensive performance against the Lakers, not exactly a clamp-down defensive team, with back-to-back clunkers against Eastern elites Boston (who was even clunkier) and Detroit (who wasn't). They've scored 86 and 85 in their last two games; in their previous 54 games, they scored under 87 only twice.

I know it's way early and the Suns have all the time in the world to figure this thing out, but they do have some major issues to address. They can still run, even when Shaq's in the game, but where they're getting bogged down is in the half court--which is where playoff games are won and lost. The way I see it, they have two big issues:

1. Shaq clogs things up in the middle, which is exactly what I predicted. They have terrible spacing and just aren't getting good open looks. Amare Stoudemire has gone wild since the trade, but I think most of that is due to his own individual brilliance--he's beating his man off the dribble, he's hitting 17-foot jumpers like the second coming of The Mailman, he's getting to the foul line like crazy, and is shooting a ridiculous 90% when he gets there.

But nobody else had anything going in those two games. I think it's pretty striking that Steve Nash's 5 and 6 assists in those games mark his second and third lowest assist totals of the year--and he only had 8 assists in the Laker game in which Phoenix scored 124 points. There's a lot of one-on-one play going on with Phoenix, which is a complete turnaround from the pre-Shaq days. In 3 games with Shaq, Nash has 19 assists and 10 turnovers. Those are Sebastian Telfair numbers.

The bottom line is this: there's no place for Nash to go. Amare and Shaq demand a lot of attention in the lane and between Hill and Diaw, you have two guys that you can leave off to help out inside (more on this later). The lane is getting a lot of traffic, and it's hurting Nash's killer penetration game.

2. Jeff Van Gundy, the best analyst in all of sports, made a good point during the Pistons game: nobody fears the Suns' 3-point shooting any more. They still have Nash, of course, but you're never, never, ever leaving off him to double Shaq or Amare anyway. Their problem is more Hill and Diaw. They're both really good players, they do a lot of valuable things, but nobody is afraid of their jumper. Both of them do most of their damage in the mid-range game and closer to the basket, and that's exactly where your defense has sagged in to account for Shaq & Amare.

In short, their spacing in the two games was just awful, and they couldn't make Boston and Detroit pay for focusing their defense in the paint.

I think they'll probably end up figuring something out. There's a lot of talent there, and if anyone can work up an offense that takes advantage of everyone's skills, it's Mike D'Antoni. But I don't know if that end product is going to be nearly as good as Suns' offenses in years past--so Shaq better make a big difference on D, which is far from a slam dunk.

I think the key to this team might end up being Leandro Barbosa. Raja Bell can shoot, but he's not going to just bury you--if your defense makes him the key man in the Suns' offense, I think you're way ahead of the game. But Barbosa is a different story, Barbosa is a cold-blooder scorer who can drop 30 on you before you blink. He's a 41% career 3-point shooter so he forces you to respect his perimeter game, and he can blow past anyone in the league. He's basically unguardable. Unlike Bell, Diaw, and to a lesser extent, Hill, he's someone that you have to account for defensively every minute of the game, you can't play off Barbosa to sag down on Shaq/Amare without paying a major price. I think he could potentially open things up for the Suns and they can get back to some semblance of what they do best--Nash penetrating and kicking out, and the Nash/Amare pick-and-roll.

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Now on to the Cavs-Bulls trade. I don't really care about it from a Bulls standpoint, they're pretty much where they were before the trade--a crappy team waiting to see how Thomas-Noah-Sefalosha turn out. I do think this means one of Gordon, Deng & Hughes are going to be traded in the offseason.

As for the Cavs, I think they solidly improved themselves, but not enough to keep pace with Boston, Detroit and the western powers. They're definitely deeper now (with Joe Smith and Delonte West), they're definitely better defensively (Ben Wallace), and they swapped in a shooter (Wally Szczerbiak) for the horribly-out-of-place Larry Hughes, but at the end of the day, it's trading 2 so-so players for 4 so-so players. A net gain of 2 so-so players isn't quite the same as adding Gasol, Kidd, or Shaq.

I will say those 4 players are a better fit for Cleveland than the guys they got rid of, Hughes and Drew Gooden (whose production will be easily replaced by Varejao getting more minutes and the addition of Wallace/Smith). There's some hope, but it probably won't be the miracle Cleveland needs to compete with the league's big dogs. I mean, I can certainly see why they made the deal, they were going nowhere with the current roster and everyone in the state of Ohio is scared shitless (understandably) about Lebron bolting in the summer of 2010. But you better damn well think it's going to work, because LBJ isn't going to be fooled into thinking the Cavs are right there if they get handled easily by Detroit or Boston or even get slaughtered once again in the Finals.

They do have a bit of roster flexibility in that year James becomes a free agent, so maybe they're thinking they can make their run with this roster and if it's not working--which it probably won't--you can either trade Wallace's expiring deal for a disgruntled star during that 2009-2010 season, or you can have a ton of cap space the summer of 2010 when LBJ opts out of his deal. He might be really pissed off at Cleveland management, but what if returning means he gets to play with Dwyane Wade? I think he'll come around.

SHAQ'S DEBUT

2008-02-21T15:35:00.000-08:00

Observations from last night's epic Lakers-Suns, a 130-124 Laker victory:

1. Shaq is still pretty damn good. The Lakers are still scared of him, they started the game double teaming every time he touched the ball--and as soon as they stopped doing it, he scored pretty much at will. He was also a force on the defensive end, the Lakers had trouble converting inside when he was in there. Fortunately they shot the ball well from the outside, and scored easily during the long stretches Shaq was on the sideline huffing and puffing.

Another big advantage to having Shaq is what it does for Amare Stoudemire. Instead of playing against much bigger 5s, he's now free to wreak havoc on physically overmatched 4s, as evidenced by the way he tore apart Lamar Odom last night for 37 & 15. I think this is pretty much what the trade was all about. Instead of having to bang with the Andrew Bynums and Erick Dampiers and Tyson Chandlers, Amare is now matched up against the Lamar Odoms/Pau Gasols and Dirk Nowitzkis and David Wests. That's an ugly matchup for everyone but San Antonio (although Amare has had good success against even Tim Duncan).

I guess I'm starting to come around on the trade--sorta. I still think you're trading your future for a one-time shot (not just getting rid of Marion, but also committing yourself to being capped out for the next 2 years after this one with little roster flexibility), and I still think you're gambling very heavily on Shaq's health. But I do think Phoenix could end up being better this year for having made the deal. Shaq causes a lot more problems than Shawn Marion does--you have to double team Shaq, you don't have to double Marion. That's huge. That opens things up for everyone. And as long as Shaq plays with the energy and effort on the defensive end that he showed last night, he's still a real intimidator out there. Marion's a very good defender, but the combination of Shaq being a lane-clogging shotblocker and Amare getting to go back to his natural position could make the Suns better off defensively too.

2. However, (a) the Lakers won at Phoenix, (b) they scored 130 and shot .565 from the floor, (c) they did it without their starting center, one of the few guys in the league who can match up size-wise with Shaq, and (d) the only reason it was even close was Phoenix's 46-33 rebounding edge with 16 offensive boards--fortunately the Lakers have one of the 3 best rebounders in the game healing quickly and chomping at the bit to get back out there.

But then a lot of the Lakers' offensive brilliance had to do with Kobe playing some of his best basketball of the season. Sometimes you're going to play LA and you're just going to get Kobe'ed--and you're probably not going to win those games. Kobe went for 41 on 16-25 shooting against generally excellent defense by Raja Bell, Grant Hill and DJ Strawberry (BTW, I'd get that kid on the floor more if I were Phoenix, he looks like a player to me.) Sometimes you just have to tip your cap and take your L. I wouldn't freak out about this if I were Phoenix, it's just one game, the first game of the Shaq era, there's plenty of time before the playoffs start to tighten things up and figure out how to get the most value out of Shaq.

As for the Lakers, well, I think it's time to start freaking out a little. In the good way. The entire season still hinges on Kobe's pinkie...but if it can just hold up, I think the Lakers have as good a shot as anyone in the league. They're still not a good rebounding or defensive team, but those will be the easiest places for Bynum to work his way back in. And the Lakers are just so goddamn good on offense right now--Kobe setting the table, Gasol getting scraps down low and sticking those midrange "jumpers" (I'm not sure his feet actually leave the floor), Odom slashing to the bucket, Fisher/Farmar/Vujacic/Radmanovic knocking down open jumpers and making teams pay for doubling Kobe & Gasol....it's all working right now. There's a long, long, long ways to go, the Western Conference playoffs will be trench warfare, but I'm feeling pretty good about the team's chances here on February 21.

Let's hope that isn't a classic jinx move, I can just see opening the paper tomorrow and reading that Kobe needs to have his pinkie amputated or he'll die. Look, basketball gods, I didn't say we'd steamroll everyone on the way to an easy NBA championship, I said I'm "feeling pretty good about the team's chances", so just chillax up there and leave Kobe alone.

FRESHMAN/SOPHOMORE

2008-02-15T20:12:00.000-08:00

So I watched the godawful freshman/sophomore all-star game Friday night, it didn't tell me anything I didn't already know, but it did remind me of a bunch of thoughts I've been having on these two classes of players.

1. I think Brandon Roy is hands-down the best player in this group, he's already right on the edge of superstardom. He's just so calm, cool and collected out there, super smooth, highly skilled, has a great understanding of the game, and is the unquestioned leader on a team with one of the brightest futures in the NBA. Since December 1, he's averaging about 21-5-6 with a sparkling 1.8 turnovers per. The only thing he can't really do yet is shoot the three, but he has a real nice stroke, I think that'll come.

Not only do I think Roy is the best player right now, in a walk, I also think he's the guy you'd take if you were building a franchise. Kevin Durant and Rudy Gay, among others, are loaded with potential, but Roy can and will get better too.

2. Next up are a group of players I like immensely: Durant, Gay and Al Horford.

I'm still super high on Kevin Durant despite his less-than-spectacular rookie season. He's playing too hesitantly, shooting way too many fallaway jumpers, that's something he'll learn to get away from in time. Watching him in the rookie-sophomore game reminded me of how much Durant can do on the court, things I just haven't seen out of him so far in Seattle. He can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, he can rebound, he has outstanding court vision, and he's an excellent finisher on the break. I think he's one of those guys who--like Rudy Gay--will see a massive leap forward in his second season. He just needs to get a little more comfortable out there, stop thinking so much and just let it fly.

Man, I bet Houston regrets that Rudy Gay-Shane Battier deal (as predicted here, even though I was admittedly lukewarm on Gay). Battier's a nice solid player, but Gay is already an excellent second year player and has a massive ceiling. Gay has Lebron-like athleticism, a top 5 athlete in the entire league, and now he's developed a sweet jumper to go along with it. He's averaging 20-6-2 on the year and is shooting an excellent .469 from the floor and .390 from three (on almost 5 attempts per game). He's also chipping in defensively with 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks. And he's 21 years old--the sky is the limit with this dude.

Al Horford is my final guy in this second tier, I'm really starting to love his game. He's a throwback PF, a Larry Nance/Horace Grant type who'll get you 15 points, 11 boards and play tough defense--that's a valuable player to have. He has some soft, soft hands, very nice athleticism, and a good handle on the game. He's doing great in the hustle stats, averaging 10 boards with a block and steal per game. His offense has been a little slow coming, he's averaging 9 on just .472 shooting, but I think it'll come for him. He has some nice post moves and a soft touch around the rim. I'm not sure he'll ever be big time, the way Durant and Gay probably will, but I think he's a safe bet as a 10-year solid starter/minor star.

3. The rest of the sophomore class

You know I've been high on Jordan Farmar for a while now, and tonight's game really illustrated some things I love about him. He was a dynamo out there, that high energy all-star game point guard that runs the floor, sees the court and makes things happen. He had a ton of great passes and a ton of steals, he just has an understanding of the game that's far superior to his classmates. I think he's easily the best PG in either class, with Mike Conley a distant second (but give it time). Throw in outstanding athleticim, tough defense and lights out shooting and I think you're looking at a very solid 15 & 8 PG in the future, with possibly an even higher ceiling than that.

I'm cooling a bit on LaMarcus Aldridge. He can score, for sure, but he doesn't do much else and he's pretty goddamn soft for a big man (just 7.4 boards per game in 34 minutes for a 6'11 PF?). That'll obviously be mitigated by the arrival of Greg Oden next year, but I do think it limits his upside to something short of stardom.

Remember this name, folks: Thabo Sefalosha. I was sounding the horn on him last year, but Scott Skiles kept him buried on the bench. Now that he's worked his way into the starting lineup, he's averaging about 12-6-3 with 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks in 17 starts. Thabo is a silky smooth 6'5 athlete who can really handle the ball, defends like a future all-defensive team player (his length and quickness really bothered Dwyane Wade Thursday night), and has a sweet little midrange game. This is his first real game experience, so I feel like he's just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's 23 now, I think he's going to be huge for the Bulls--in fact, with his emergence, I wouldn't be at all shocked if they moved Ben Gordon or Luol Deng this summer for some post scoring.

4. The rest of the rookie class

I think New Jersey may have gotten the steal of the draft with their 6'10 jumping jack Sean Williams. He's only averaging about 8 & 6, but he just oozes potential. He's only 21 and didn't play organized basketball until he was 15. Yet his game is more than just raw athleticism, he actually has some decent skills to go along with his crazy hops and quickness. This guy's a keeper.

A player who's really starting to come on lately is Thaddeus Young, a 6'8 small forward in Philly. He recently earned his way into the starting lineup and has responded with 11 & 6 and is shooting .571. Young is extremely athletic and is a great finisher around the rim (unlike most rookie small forwards). He's only 19, having played just one year at Georgia Tech, so this is someone to really keep an eye on, he could be a big timer.

Rodney Stuckey from Detroit is looking like another draft steal in this potentially monstrous class. He looked good from the start after coming back from injury, but he did struggle a bit with his outside shot. But in the last 6 games, he's averaging an excellent 11-2-4 in just 21 minutes per game and is shooting a very respectable .491. He's an outstanding penetrator and solid passer, and he just doesn't turn the ball over a lot (2.5 assists to 1.0 turnovers per game so far this season). I like this guy more and more every time I see him.

Yi Jianlian could end up being one of the real prizes of this class. At just 20, he's averaging a respectable 10 & 6. He's more athletic than anyone envisioned, and he has a smooooth jumper for a big man. I'm not sure you want to play him at PF without a true center, but he's a nice prospect as a combo forward.

Then finally, we have Al Thornton, the combo forward for the Clippers. He's coming on in a big way right now, averaging 17 & 6 in 8 February games, but the only thing I'd caution is that Thornton is 24 year olds and played 4 years of college ball, he should be better than his draft class right now. He's definitely athletic as hell and he has some skills, but he's very sporadic shooting the ball, a real all-or-nothing guy. Sometimes those kind of players develop more consistency and pan out, sometimes they're Tim Thomas. We'll see what happens--but like with Thomas, I think a player with Thornton's size and athleticism should be playing around the rim more rather than shooting a million jumpers. At least it's more midrange stuff with Thornton as opposed to launching a ton of threes.

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So what about Kobe? Man. Just...man. What a rollercoaster ride this season has been for the Lakers. They start out kicking ass, then Bynum goes down. Then they look like they're going to immediately play their way out of a playoff spot, and then the Gasol trade happens. They start kicking major ass again, and boom, Kobe might be (probably?) looking at surgery on his torn pinkie ligament and six weeks of rehab. Arrgh.

I'm just getting the feeling more and more that this isn't the Lakers year to win a championship. I was lukewarm on their chances to start with (on the assumption that the very young Andrew Bynum wouldn't be back to 100% (physically or especially mentally) before the playoffs rolled around--now with Kobe potentially missing much of the stretch run, it's conceivable the Lakers could go into a tailspin and miss the playoffs altogether in the brutal, brutal West (they're 3rd in the conference right now, a game and a half back of first place Phoenix, coming off a 7-2 road trip...and they're still only 3 friggin' games ahead of #9 Houston. Meanwhile they're 12 games ahead of the East's #8, Philadelphia).

Maybe he can play through it, that remains to be seen; but if not, I'm at peace with the idea of him just getting the surgery, the Lakers doing what they can with Kobe & Andrew when they return from injury, and looking ahead to the next 3-4 years of championship contention. It would kill me to throw away that all-too-rare season when your team looks like it might be the best one around, but at least the future's extremely bright, unlike in Phoenix and Dallas (if the Kidd trade goes through).

THE TRADES

2008-02-05T23:47:00.000-08:00

Just when you think the era of the big NBA trade is all but dead, we have two absolute blockbusters in the last week: Pau Gasol goes to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, and a used jockstrap to clinch it, and Shaq--Shaq!!!--looks like he's on the way to Phoenix--Phoenix!!!--for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.

Now you know I get pretty geeked about the NBA even in the dullest of times--well, right now, I'm shaking like Amy Winehouse after she's gone 45 minutes without some kind of intoxicant. Let's discuss:

PAU GASOL

Ohmygod, ohmygod, ohmygod. This just couldn't have worked out better. We get a 27-year-old skilled 7-footer--and we get to get rid of KWAME BROWN?! Uh, did Memphis throw in one free blowjob from Salma Hayek for all Laker fans on top of it? My dogs are even more ecstatic than I am, never again will they have to cower in fear after I scream "box the FUCK out, Kwame!!!" I wanted to wait until Pau's (my first reference to him by his first name...sigh) debut before I posted, just to get a sense of what he's going to mean to this team, and the answer is...a lot. In what would otherwise have been a classic trap game, a would-be road loss to a so-so team when Kobe's not feeling it (3-13 from the floor, 7 turnovers), Gasol came up with 24-12-4--pretty much the difference between winning and losing.

He was great on the boards--he's pretty soft, but he does play like a 7-footer, he plays above people's heads. And he has some soft hands, which is night and day from Kwame. He caught several passes and took down several offensive boards that Kwame wouldn't have gotten in a million years. He knows how to finish around the basket (again, totally unlike Kwame, who's downright comedically spastic at that), and his passing was superb. His 4 assists could have been 6 or 7 if people had knocked down open shots.

I still think he's going to be slightly less involved when Andrew Bynum is fully healthy. Gasol has a nice touch around the rim, Andrew has a nice power dunk around the rim. There's a difference. And Bynum is a *miles better* defensive player than Gasol, who's quite frankly awful on that end. I think the Lakers are going to continue to give up a lot of points until Bynum and Ariza (in place of the also defensively-deficient Luke Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic) are healthy. I mean, Andrew's the franchise, post-Kobe. He's the intimidator, he's the force, he's the guy *nobody in the league* can match up with. He's the guy who just scared Phoenix into making an imbecilic trade (more on that below).

But I still think Gasol will play a huge role. Andrew will hold the fort in the low post, Gasol will play the high post or split out on the baseline, two areas where triangle offense PFs like Horace Grant thrived. And I think we're going to see a lot of the offense run through him at the high post--his passing is excellent, he can stick that foul-line jumper, and he has a nice little take to the basket for a big man. Plus he'll probably get some pick-and-rolls run for him, judging from tonight. That staple of good basketball has been almost non-existent in LA for 10 years, but the Lakers pulled it out for two key possessions in the fourth quarter tonight and Gasol converted on both with ease.

If I had to pick some numbers for Gasol, I'd say pre-Bynum 20-10-4, post-Bynum (being *fully* healthy), more like 15-7-4.

The guy I really think might be marginalized upon Andrew's return is Lamar Odom. Gasol and Bynum together make Lamar's rebounding almost superfluous, and I think he'll be even more content to stay in the background offensively than he already is. Plus I just don't think he can defend opposing 3s, he's struggled with that in the past. This team isn't going to need much on offense with Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and lots of good shooters, but a big weakness on D (in addition to Gasol) could really hurt them. I could see Odom's numbers dwindling to something like 10-7-3. Which is fine with me, but I can understand if Jerry Buss and Mitch Kupchak don't want to pay $15M a year for that kind of production--so what I'm saying is, don't be shocked if you see Lamar traded for seemingly pennies on the dollar this summer.

So do I think the Lakers can win a championship? Yes, but I'm thinking probably not this year. I don't think they're good enough defensively without Bynum at 100%, and I don't think he's going to be the same player he was when he gets back. It doesn't take long for an Elton Brand to return to superstardom after an injury, but Bynum's different, this was a kid who was experiencing for the first time what it was like to be a great NBA player. A lot of his success depends on energy and confidence, and I think that'll be the hard thing for him to get back after the injury. Plus there will be some awkwardness and confusion over integrating Bynum with Gasol, and I'm worried Bynum won't be in the mindset to take over as the man in the middle over a much more experienced Gasol.

But Kobe's 29, Gasol's 27, Odom's 28, Farmar's 21, Andrew's 20--I can wait. This team is here to stay as a contender for at least the next 3-4 years. I'd love to see them make a run this year, but if it doesn't happen, well, the future's still pretty goddamned bright.

SHAQUILLE

What the hell is Steve Kerr thinking? I just don't get this on any level. You give up a younger, cheaper player who's a better fit for your team for someone who's old, injury prone, and wildly overpaid...why?!? I personally think Shawn Marion is a bit overrated, definitely overpaid, and one of the league's true assholes, but man, at least he can still play. Shaq will probably get motivated in a hurry going to a championship contender, but look, he's still old, fat, slow and extremely dinged up. I just don't get this at all.

Actually, I do have a reason, even though I think it's an idiotic one: Andrew Bynum. I'm always saying that one regular season game doesn't mean anything, but that Christmas Day game--as predicted--had a huge impact on the Phoenix Suns' psyche. That was the game Andrew Bynum physically dominated the manhood out of Amare Stoudemire, forcing the Suns to go to Brian Skinner for large stretches of the game. I think that really scared them, and this Shaq trade is the resulting panic move.

I do think Shaq, unlike Amare, can hold his own defensively with Andrew Bynum--for now, that is. Check back in another 45 seconds or so when Andrew has left Shaq in the dust once and for all. But that comes at the cost of losing a guy who was tailor-made for Mike D'Antoni's system--*and* at an additional $20M in salary in 2009-2010. And that's assuming Shaq is healthy, which he almost never is. This is a soon-to-be 36 year old man who has never taken care of himself and never will. (I mean--would you? You're an all-time great with 4 rings, how the hell are you going to motivate yourself to get up at 8:00 AM in the offseason--when you're already hurting--to get your ass into the gym?)

I know there's some major spat between Amare and Marion and maybe this means they just can't coexist, but geez, this is the best you can do? Bottom line, I don't want Shaq on my team at any cost. To think you could have had Kobe a year ago--I love Amare Stoudemire too, but would you rather have Nash-Kobe-Marion or Nash-Amare-Shaq? That's an absolute no-brainer. Like Chicago, they just blew it. When you have a chance to get a Kobe, especially if your mission is to win now, as it is with the Suns, you do it.

But I just don't see how Shaq's going to work on this team. I can't stress enough what a bad fit he is for the Suns' system. Shaq still has some value as a player--while healthy--but look, you can't run with Shaq. You just can't. And if you try to, all you're doing is playing 4-on-5 while simultaneously not taking advantage of the skills of your highest paid player. Shaq can still score in the halfcourt. What he can't do is run the break and finish.

And whither the famous Suns' pick-and-roll? That's their entire halfcourt offense! You can't pick and roll with Shaq, he can't shoot the foul-line jumper *and* he can't take the ball to the basket. And what happens when Shaq & Amare are in the game and you want to run that pick-and-roll with Amare, does Shaq clog up the lane and make that play easily defendable, or does he just stand around 20 feet from the basket with this thumb up his ass? That's a great way to spend $20,000,000.

Shaq does give them a good halfcourt scoring option, he gives them a better defensive rebounder (forget the numbers, if the ball is bouncing off the rim in crunch time, I want Shaq under it over Marion) and a much better interior defender than they currently have--and seeing as how this is Shaq we're talking about, that's one sad reflection on the state of Amare's suck-ass defense. But then maybe Amare's suck-ass defense won't be quite so awful when he's defending 4s instead of 5s and he's not responsible for being the big lane-clogging shotblocker on the team.

But what they lose is...well...everything that makes them the Suns. I have no doubt Boris Diaw can fill Marion's shoes and do a decent job, so the loss of Marion isn't what I'm talking about. It's the addition of Shaq and how you necessarily have to play when he's in the game. I don't know what the new Suns are going to look like, but it's going to be a hell of a lot different than what it's been the last few years.

Maybe D'Antoni and Kerr just looked at what they had and decided they flat-out couldn't win playing small in the west. That's their prerogative, of course, but I think they're really jumping the gun. I still think Phoenix was one David Stern robbery (the Amare suspension) against the Spurs from it being anyone's series, and I think they're right there again this year. I would have liked to have seen them give it one more chance before calling it quits.

I know they're afraid of the size of the other Big 4 western teams--yup, that's right bitch, LA has now made it a Big 4--but I feel like they've just committed themselves to playing a lot more like San Antonio, Dallas and Los Angeles with a roster that's not as good at it.

I think a good gauge for how a trade is going to shake out is to look at league reaction. The Gasol trade sent shockwaves through the league, team execs were literally angry that LA got him for so little. If opposing teams are unhappy, that's a good reason to think you did the right thing. Well, nobody in the West is unhappy about the Shaq trade. On the contrary, I feel like Phoenix just hurt their short term chances and utterly destroyed their post-Nash (he's 35) long term chances of competing.

JASON KIDD RUMORS SWIRLING

2008-01-31T15:21:00.001-08:00

Rumors are hot and heavy regarding a 3-team deal between Dallas, Portland and New Jersey in which Dallas would get Kidd, Portland would get Devin Harris, and New Jersey would get some combination of Travis Outlaw, Jerry Stackhouse, Desagana Diop, Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye and draft picks.

Some thoughts:

1. I think it makes sense for Dallas to give up Harris-Stackhouse-Diop, but I don't think it's a total slam dunk like most people seem to. Devin Harris can hoop, he's like a poor man's Tony Parker who can play defense. I looked at his January numbers today, he's averaging like 16 & 7 with 1.5 turnovers and a .547 shooting %. That's very, very good. He's like Parker in that he's just *so fucking quick* that he's unguardable by anyone in the league.

However, his upside is limited since we're essentially talking about a 6'2 scoring guard. Harris is a good ballhandler and picks up assists because he drives & kicks so much, but--again like Parker--he's not a natural point guard. So even if he completely flourishes, well, I'm all for having another Tony Parker on my team, but only if he's surrounded by 1-2 other studs. I don't want a 6'2 guard being the focal point of my offense, I don't want Parker/Gordon/Barbosa/Harris taking the highest number of shots on my team. So while I think Harris is going to end up being a very good player, I think superstardom is out of reach.

And I don't think you pass up a chance to win a championship when your star is already 30 (and is shaky at crunch time to start with). Now's the time for Dallas, and Kidd makes that team hella-scary. I put it this way a friend earlier: in a playoff series against the Spurs, would you rather rely on Dirk to create his own offense against Bruce Bowen, or have everyone on the team--including Dirk--get tons of open shots with Kidd? I like the latter a lot better. The only problem I see is that Kidd isn't the defensive player he once was, Harris makes for a better defensive matchup against Nash & Parker, but I think Kidd's superior offense, rebounding and leadership (he's one of the few players I've ever seen Kobe defer to, so that tells you something about the respect Kidd commands around the league as a floor general) more than offset that.

2. If Portland ends up with Harris....holy shit. I mean, holy shit is that team going to be good. I like Travis Outlaw a lot, but Harris is way ahead of him (not to mention that Outlaw can be replaced at least adequately with Martell Webster & James Jones, while Portland could really use another good ballhandling guard like Harris). That gives you the big guard/little guard setup that San Antonio has with Ginobili-Parker so that even if Roy is your quasi-PG and Harris your quasi-SG, you can switch them defensively. Lining up with Roy-Harris-Webster-Aldridge-Oden? Wow. That's formidable. And all under 25.

3. As for New Jersey...ah, who cares. I guess if I were them I'd be looking for the *one best player* I could find (including what I could get with a draft pick)--I don't really care about getting a million mediocre players, I just want one really good one. Travis Outlaw is a young, exciting player with some upside left, but I don't know if it's enough to make this deal. The rest of these guys--Stackhouse, Frye, Jack, Diop--are nothing, those are replacement level players available every year.

4. I just pray the Lakers stay far, far away from this discussion. Kidd would be a great short term addition to any team, even at his advanced age, but the future--like, the very near future--is insanely bright for the Lakers and I don't see any reason to mess around with it.

I especially don't want any part of it if Jordan Farmar is included in the deal, which he'd probably have to be. You heard it here first: Farmar is about to blow up. He has great athleticism, great handles, he's a good passer, an active defender, and he turned himself from a bricklayer into a deadly shooter in one year's time. I feel about him the way I did about Andrew last January--he's one year away. I'll predict Farmar's 2008-2009 line as 15-5-5 with great shooting percentages and lots of 3s & steals. He could probably do that now, he's just at that stage where he's not sure what he's capable of. He doesn't come into the arena every night expecting to score 15+ points. You know that hoary old cliche "he doesn't know how good he is"? Well, it's spot on in Farmar's case, just like it was Andrew's a year ago. He's playing with so much confidence right now, he's just about to turn the corner into "15 ppg guy"...but he's not quite there yet.

So I don't really want to mortgage a great future for a shot with J-Kidd. True, Kobe's getting up there too, but he's still in great shape, he's got at least 3-4 more years left at an elite level, and with Bynum and Farmar coming on like runaway freight trains, I just don't see any reason to make a move. Let Duncan, Nash, Dirk, KG, and the Pistons' crew keep getting older, sit tight, and you (and Portland, with or without Harris) are in the driver's seat by 2010.

9/11 TIMES A MILLION

2008-01-16T11:07:00.000-08:00

So just when Andrew Bynum is looking like the next great big man in the NBA and the savior of the Kobe era in Los Angeles, he trips over goddamn Lamar goddamn Odom and messes up his kneecap. He's out eight friggin' weeks. The Lakers struggled to victory over crap-ass Seattle Tuesday night without him, and Phoenix's loss to the Clippers last night has left the Lakers--for now--with the best record in the West.

What could have been.

This team was playing great basketball, a legit championship contender, and Bynum was turning into a truly dominant player. The problem, as I see it, is that Bynum isn't a perennial 20-10 guy coming back from injury, where it's just a matter of time and health before he gets back to where he was. He was just starting to know what it's like to be a great player for the first time in his career, and now he's taken 10 steps back.

I've pretty much written the rest of the season off. Bynum isn't the most confident guy in the world to start with, and he'll be even shakier coming off injury. No way he'll be the dunking/rebounding/shotblocking machine he's been over the last month. He's thrived by being a phsyically dominant player, and I don't see a 20-year-old kid coming off a major knee injury jumping right back into the fray with full abandon.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll be fine in the long term, I'm still very high on Big Andrew's (and the Lakers') future. But his body has never let him down before, and now he has to deal with that--I'm guessing it'll take some time to get back to where he was. I always thought it'd be 2009 at a minimum before the Lakers were contenders, Bynum's astonishing improvement over the last month ratcheted up expectations into the stratosphere--now I'm just pushing them back to where I had them before. 2009, baby. Lakers.

Now I'm going to go lie down and throw up.

NON-BYNUM NEWS

Boston is cooling off after a scorching hot start, dropping three of their last 4, including one to Charlotte and two consecutive to surprisingly not-awful (but not-great either) Washington. Boston averaged a paltry 83 points over the 4 games, showing that it's not just all about defense. There's no excuse for a team with 3 of the 20 best offensive players in the league to score 83 points. Now it's true Rajon Rondo has been hurting and they have almost no point guard depth (Damon Stoudamire anyone?), but still, this is Charlotte and Washington, not San Antonio and Detroit.

I personally don't think coaching counts for much in the NBA, but 0ne as bad as Doc Rivers might cost this team in the playoffs. The Pistons are now just 2.5 games behind Boston for best record in the league, with the Lakers another 2 games behind that.

Miami has lost 10 in a row to sink to 8-28. They need to go 33-13 the rest of the way to get to .500, which is around what it usually takes to get a #8 playoff spot in the crappier conference. That's not going to happen. This team has zero chance of making the playoffs. Right now I'd start playing for the Michael Beasley sweepstakes and pack it in for D-Wade at *any* sign of an injury setback. Fortunately for them, they might be bad enough to get the #1 pick even if Wade stays healthy (I expect Minnesota to show some improvement if and when Randy Foye gets on the court, they're in dire need of competent guard play).

But this is probably a blessing in disguise. They're capped out thanks to the horrific Shaq contract ($20M per over the next 2 years after this one), so the only way they're getting any better is (a) the draft, or (b) getting lucky with Dorrell Wright and/or Daequan Cook, the way the Lakers did with Andrew Bynum. But Wright & Cook aren't precociously gifted 7'1 300 pound centers. If Miami has any hope of retaining Dwyane Wade after he opts out in the summer of 2010, they need to have a serious talent upgrade, and being very, very sucky this year is probably the best way of accomplishing that. If they make some shortsighted trade for an aging, overpaid veteran with major question marks, a Ron Artest or Mike Bibby, I will smack myself in the forehead or chuckle. Possibly both.

New Orleans is 15-5 on the road. That's pretty crazy--only the Celtics are better in the entire NBA. The Hornets are 25-12 overall, half a game behind heavyweights San Antonio and Dallas. If I were doing an MVP ranking right now, Chris Paul is easily top 3. Over the last month, he's averaging 22 & 11.6, with just 2.2 turnovers--that's a 5.3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Nash's over that time is 3.3:1, Kidd's is 2.9:1. Amazing player.

STUFF AND THINGS

2008-01-10T10:57:00.000-08:00

OK, I'm back--sorry about the down period, this is my busiest time of the year. I should be back on a somewhat regular schedule now.

1. Regarding the Lakers' fairly easy win over Phoenix on Christmas Day--look, I always say one game in the NBA doesn't matter. There are too many factors--who's hot that particular night, who's healthy, who's been traveling, who's on a back-to-back, who got into the hotel at 3 AM the previous night, who's hung over, etc. So I'm not going to put too much stock in the victory, the Suns are still the better team in my mind.

EXCEPT...if I'm the Suns, I'm worried about 3 very disturbing trends from that game:

Andrew
Fucking
Bynum

Bynum absolutely tore Phoenix apart. They started out with their usual small lineup, with Amare Stoudemire at center, but it was quickly apparent that Bynum is just too big and strong for Stoudemire to hang with defensively now. They were forced to go to Brian Skinner off the bench and play him 22 minutes--almost double his usual playing time. They don't want Skinner out there, that's a last resort desperation move. And the beauty of it is (a) Skinner can't do much about Bynum either, Big Andrew finished with 28 (on 11-13 shooting) & 12 boards; and (b) having Skinner in the game really bogs down the Suns' offense.

And another beautiful thing is that Bynum stayed on Amare the entire game, giving Lamar Odom basically a freebie defensive assignment hovering with Skinner 12 feet out on the baseline (where I'm sure the Lakers have no problem letting him shoot all day long). Stoudemire finished with a quiet 19 & 6 and spent the game in foul trouble. So what we have is this: Bynum can guard Stoudemire, but Stoudemire can't guard Bynum. Advantage, Lakers.

Phoenix has struggled in the playoffs against the Lakers even in the Lakers' sucky years--now that they're a legimately good team, and the absolute wrong matchup for the Suns, I can guarantee they don't want to see the purple & yellow come playoff time.

2. More on Bynum. Bynum finished December averaging 14 & 9 with 2.7 blocks--in 4 games in January, he's upped that to 17 & 12 with 2.8 blocks. He's arriving. Rapidly. He's very, very big, he's very, very strong, he has the best hands in the league since the young Shaq, and his athleticism has seen a massive improvement in a year's time. He's now a top 5 center in the league, and a top 10-15 "guy I'd like to build around".

A year ago we were talking about (essentially) Bynum & Odom for Kidd, or for Deng/Gordon, or for Amare. The first two deals are obviously a joke now, and--get this--I'm not sure I'd trade Andrew for Amare straight up right now. How insane is that? OK, it's pretty insane, maybe I don't actually believe it. Amare's already a superstar, Bynum still has a ways to go.

But I'm becoming pretty convinced that Amare will always be a terrible defensive player, while Bynum is on the cusp of being that rarest of treasures--the true defensive stud big man, the guy who blocks 3 shots a game and alters 10 more, and who scares everyone shitless from even coming into the lane. Even an unmotivated defender like the young Shaq had plenty of defensive value just from his intimidation factor. Andrew intimidates. He's becoming a real defensive force out there, and that's a valuable guy to have. Maybe I'd take a straight up deal for Amare, but the Kidd/Deng/Marion deals are completely and utterly off the table now. Unless they want an Odom/Farmar deal, which ain't half bad.

3. The hot teams. In their last 10:

Boston 9-1, but that loss was last night...by 12...at home...to Charlotte! It was without Ray Allen, but it just goes to show how precarious it all is for Boston. It's not just that they're an injury away from sucking--everyone in the league is, look at San Antonio floundering around without Ginobili. But when your 3 superstars are all old, you have to pray everytime somebody goes to the floor.

Detroit 8-2, but they've dropped their last 2 to league elites Boston & Dallas. No worries, this is a good, solid team who knows how to win in the playoffs, and they've now developed a highly promising youth movement. More on Rodney Stuckey below.

Dallas 8-2, with 5 straight wins. Looks like they're getting their shit together, as expected--but this is still a team with a 7-8 road record. I wouldn't call them a slam dunk for the Western Conference Finals by a long shot.

New Orleans 8-2. This team is great when their shooters are on, mediocre when they're off (like last night against the Lakers). Fortunately for them, their shooters are usually on--and with Chris Paul running the show, they're always getting open looks. And you know how I was talking about Andrew Bynum beating up on Phoenix a few paragraphs up? Well, in two games against the Suns (both Hornets' wins), Tyson Chandler has put up 19 & 11 and 14 & 18 and outplayed Amare both games. They really struggle with that big, athletic center (I mean, even more than other teams).

Portland 9-1. The Blazers continue to be the hottest team in the league. They finished December at 13-2, and have now won 4 straight to open January. They're now up to 22-13 (after a 5-11 start) and have taken a half game lead on Denver for the division lead. They're just a good, smart team who takes care of the ball and plays tough D. They can shoot the 3 with Martell Webster, James Jones and Steve Blake, they have Lamarcus Aldridge's money post scoring, and Brandon Roy's calm, cool leadership. I love this team, I absolutely can't wait to see what they do with Greg Oden on board.

And then there are the Lakers at 8-2. A lot of you have asked if I'm downright giddy at what's happened this year so far. Yes. Yes, I am. It's really beyond a best case scenario, with Bynum turning into not just a good quality starter, but the league's next dominant big man. Jordan Farmar has become a solid ballhandler, a pesky defender, an outstanding transition finisher and a money shooter and now looks like a 10 year starter in the NBA.

Going into the year, we needed massive improvement from these guys to salvage any last remaining hopes of the Kobe Era in Los Angeles, and that's what we've gotten (and remind me to tell you about the potential-oozing Javaris Crittenton some time). It remains to be seen whether this is a legitimate title contender (now and next year, before Kobe's opt-out date) or just another quality team who can't run with San Antonio, Dallas and Phoenix, but at least it's a question mark at this point and not a Kobe Bryant fire sale.

4. Players

So we finally get the first appearance of Rodney Stuckey, and I for one like what I see. He reminds me a lot of Chauncey Billups actually. He can't pull like Chauncey, but he's a big, thick guard who knows how to use his body to get where he wants to go. Like Chauncey, he's not a super-classic point, more of a combo guard, and he's not the quickest guy in the league; but he's a very solid ballhandler (28 assists to 12 turnovers thus far), he's physical, he has the potential to be an excellent finisher in the lane, and he's a very active defender.

I said going into the draft last year that with all the question marks, someone was going to get a total steal at 15-25. It's still way early, but right now I'd say it's a race between Stuckey, Sean Williams in NJ, Nick Young in Washington, Daequan Cook in Miami, and Javaris Crittenton in LA, with maybe Williams in the lead.

Over the last month (15 or so games):

Iverson's averaging a shade under 30, shooting .470 from the floor and .875 from the line, with 6 assists and 2 steals. An amazing, underappreciated player.

Looks like D-Wade is more or less back to his old self, averaging 27-5-7.5 with 2 steals and a block. But 4.6 turnovers per for the season? Wow, what's the NBA record? I haven't watched a lot of their games on account of their suckitude, but I can picture what's going on, I've seen it with Kobe--it's hard for supertalented and superdriven players to play for such shitty teams without trying to do too much. Well, no biggie, they wouldn't exactly be competing for a championship this year even if Wade were playing more under control. Let him go wild.

After a horrendous start, Jason Richardson is really starting to come alive. He's averaging 24-5-3 over the last month with 3+ threes per game, and shooting .492 from the floor. For the season he's shooting a ridiculous .447 on 6.4 three attempts per game.

Ben Gordon's been on fire now that Scott Skiles is no longer breathing down his throat; he's averaging 27 in the 7 games and shooting .511 from the floor and .486 from three.

Chris Paul gets most of the credit for the Hornets' emergence, and rightly so, but David West's 21 & 10 over the last month has helped too. He just keeps getting better and better every single year. This marks his 5th straight season increasing both his point and rebound averages.

Memphis is finally coming to their senses, abandoning all hope for this season and turning the team over to its youth contingent. Mike Conley's gotten the last 4 starts and--as predicted--has responded well, averaging 10-5-6 with 2 steals and just 2 turnovers per game. He can't shoot, but he can get anywhere he wants on the court at any time, and he can really handle the ball. I'm very high on this kid.

PORTLAND RE-BIRTH

2007-12-24T10:40:00.000-08:00

So Portland looks like they're back in a big way, and I for one am happy about it. I mean, I'm not happy the Lakers have yet another Western Conference beast looming, but if any city (other than New York) deserves a good team, it's Portland. They've endured terrible teams, they've endured fugly teams, teams full of thugs and rapists, and they've stayed through it all. They're not the most knowledgeable crowd in the league (that's New York again), and they have the worst signage (seriously, check out their games, people will be holding up signs like "The Blazers are good!"), but they're probably the most loyal group of fans out there.

And now they have something to cheer about. With prince-in-waiting Greg Oden sidelined for the year, the youngest team in the league has started to emerge one season ahead of schedule behind a strong core of young players including LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, and the rapidly-arriving Brandon Roy. Since losing at San Antonio on December 2nd, the rest of the month has seen the Blazers win 10 in a row, including home & away over Utah, home and away over Denver, and home vs. Golden State, New Orleans and Toronto--in fact, those games constitute Portland's last 7; they're on a major roll right now. It's even more impressive when you consider that up-and-coming big man LaMarcus Aldridge missed 5 of those games with injury.

The key is Brandon Roy, he's come on strong over the last month and has announced his presence as the NBA's next superstar. In 11 December games, he's averaging 22/5/7 and shooting .479 from the floor. More than that, he's become the team's clear leader and is turning into one of the league's great finishers in the fourth quarter.

His fellow 2006 draft classmate LaMarcus Aldridge is having a great second season as well, averaging 18.5 & 8, shooting .528 from the floor, and giving the team one of the most promising young post scorers in the league. He's got moves, he's got a sweet jumper, and his one weakness--he's on the soft-ish side--will be mitigated by having superbeast Greg Oden as his running mate. If Chicago had stuck with Aldridge instead of trading his draft rights for those of Tyrus Thomas, they'd be a 50+ win team right now instead of floundering near the league's basement--his post scoring is exactly what they need. In fact, if you re-ran that 2006 draft, Roy would be the hands-down #1 pick and Aldridge would probaby go #2 just over Rudy Gay. In short, Portland absolutely cleaned up in that draft.

And now we have good news about Greg Oden, from the Blazers' GM Kevin Pritchard: "He's so far ahead of what we expected, it's not even funny." He then stressed that Oden will not be coming back this year (which is smart, no need to rush anything when the future is so unbelievably bright for this franchise), but it's sounding more and more like Oden will be ready to go when the 2008-2009 season begins. And when he shows up, an already good team suddenly will have one of the best rebounders and shot-blockers in the league (which I believe Oden will be right off the bat), and a Dwight Howard-like dunking machine around the basket. Oden's offensive game is raw, but his athleticism is off the charts and I think he'll be able to more or less dunk his way to double figures next year.

So next year they line up with Roy-Webster-Aldridge-Oden, with whoever wins the PG battle between Steve Blake, Jarrett Jack & Sergio Rodriguez. What's so great about Roy is that you don't need to pair him with a classic PG, because he's going to have the ball in his hands all the time and will be directing the offense. Think Dwyane Wade or Kobe. All you need is another good ballhandler, a good shooter who can knock down open 3s, and someone who can defend other PGs.

Aldridge and Oden are the perfect complements to each other, Aldridge being a great high post scorer, Oden controlling the boards and the paint defensively. Webster gives them a money shooter, a tough cover on a team with several guys who can command double teams. The team also has the highly promising Travis Outlaw, a 23-year-old super athlete combo forward who's averaging 16/6/2 for December, and Channing Frye and Joel Przybilla to give them some quality big man depth.

And the best part of all of it, IMO, is that the team has a ton of cap space available. They might not need it, other than to shore up a weakness here and there, but they're also one of the few teams in the league who could handle a major deal--or just a straight free agent signing. Imagine adding Kobe after next year, or Dwyane Wade the year after that. Portland could probably do it if they played their cards right. That's the beauty of having players the caliber of Roy, Aldridge and Oden on their low-paying rookie contracts.

But honestly, they're so promising right now, I'll bet they're thinking they can win with what they have--and I think they might be right. Obviously we'll know a lot more once Oden starts playing, but this is already a quality team and it's only getting better from here.

"The Blazers are good!"...indeed.

QUICK HITTERS

The Pistons have reeled off 5 wins in a row--includin an epic win at Boston--to get to 20-7, the second best record in the league to Boston's 22-3. And now they have rookie Rodney Stuckey back from injury, Jason Maxiell looking like a beast in the making, Primo Brezec giving them some good size off the bench--I really like what I'm seeing here. Joe Dumars is in the process of doing the impossible: sowing the seeds of a rebuilding movement while still competing at the highest levels. The team is still as good as anyone in the league, and IMO a very tough matchup for Boston in a 7 game series, but now they've added several promising young players as cornerstones of a future youth movement in Stuckey, Maxiell, Arron Afflalo, Amir Johnson, and Cheick Samb. They just don't come any better than Joe D.

The Lakers have gone 8-2 in their last 10 to get up to 17-10. Andrew Bynum is coming on in leaps and bounds, averaging just under 14 & 10 in December with over 3 blocks per game and a .652 FG%. He's really a force on both ends at this point, with consistency the only issue. Lamar Odom is finally looking healthy, the Lakers' bench has been fantastic, and Kobe is playing (mostly) smart and under control, but I'm not ordering Western Conference Finals tickets just yet--the schedule has been favorable so far and the team has a brutal stretch coming up in January. We'll see what happens when the second youngest team in the league plays a bunch of tough road games.

Dallas is looking like they have their shit together, they're up to 19-9 and back to their rightful place as a top 3 team in the conference.

Orlando's a funny team. They're struggling right now, 3-7 in their last 10 to drop to 18-11. But what's weird is they're an excellent 13-5 on the road, and a dreadful 5-6 at home. Any team that relies on outside shooting so much is going to be streaky and inconsistent, but I still think they're a scary draw in the playoffs for either Detroit or Boston.

AT THE QUARTER POLE

2007-12-13T10:23:00.000-08:00

With about 1/4th of the season over, here's where I see things:

BEST TEAM

1. San Antonio Spurs 17-4
2. Boston Celtics 18-2
3. Phoenix Suns 17-6

Boston has the best record. They're outscoring teams by almost 14 points per game. They're giving up 87 a game, a full 4.5 fewer points than the next best defensive team (Detroit). They're shooting .479 from the floor as a team, and .382 from three--both figures top 5 in the league. They're scoring 110 points per 100 possessions and giving up 95, both ridiculous numbers. So why do I only have them #2?

Because they've played 16 of their 20 games against the Eastern Conference, and none of their other 4 games were against any of the Western powers. Look, I'm not saying they're not for real--I do have them as the second best team in the league after all. But I still think the Spurs are a tick better, going 15-3 to open the season (against a better schedule) before Duncan sprained an ankle. Impressively, they're 2-1 since, with wins over Dallas & Utah before stumbling on the road to Golden State.

Manu Ginobili (averaging 21/5/4) and Tony Parker (20/3.5/7) are playing the best basketball of their lives, and Duncan's Duncan. I hate to say it, but I once again have to make these guys my solid favorite to win the NBA Championship.

Phoenix was looking great at 16-4 before a recent 1-2 stumble where they inexplicably lost games to horrible Minnesota and Miami squads. But a tough, gut-it-out win over Utah last night may have righted the ship. I still think they're right there with San Antonio, and I'd be extremely excited about a Suns-Spurs Western Conference Championship--we'll just have to hope David Stern doesn't once again make himself the MVP of the series and hand it over to San Antonio on a silver platter.

MVP

1. Dwight Howard (23 & 15, 2.8 blocks, .607 FG%)
2. Lebron James (30/7/8, 1.9 steals, 1.5 blocks)
3. Kobe Bryant (27/6/5, 2.0 steals)
4. Kevin Garnett (19/11/4, 1.7 steals, 1.7 blocks, .552 FG%)
5. Steve Nash (18/4/12, .525 FG%, .465 3PT%, .950 FT%)
6.. Chris Paul (22/4/10, 2.8 steals, .492 FG%, .912 FT%)
7. Tim Duncan (18/9/3, 1.8 blocks, .535 FG%)
8. Carlos Boozer (25/11.5/3, .577 FG%)
9. Carmelo Anthony (25/5.5/4)
10. Amare Stoudemire (21 & 9, 2.0 blocks, .569 FG%)

Others under consideration: Deron Williams, Tracy McGrady, Baron Davis, Josh Howard, Manu Ginobili, Allen Iverson.

Notes:

I have to give the nod to Dwight Howard at this stage, he's dominated the first part of the season even more than Lebron and Kobe have. He's like the young Shaq, just a matchup nightmare who needs to be double teamed on every catch on every possession. Now that his defensive game is rounding into shape, he's a total force of nature on both ends of the court.

The Lakers are definitely a better team than the Cavs, at least so far, but Lebron was doing something utterly historic before missing 5 games with a hand injury. I think he deserves to be ahead of Kobe at this stage.

I almost put Chris Paul ahead of Steve Nash, that's how good Paul has been in the season's first 20 or so games. Nash has fellow top 25 players Amare Stoudemire (more like top 10) and Shawn Marion, Chris Paul has David West, Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler--good but not great supporting talent--and yet the Hornets are within 2.5 games of Phoenix. That's impressive. Paul is a maestro out there--like Nash, always in complete control of the game. He's added some solid outside shooting to his repertoire, knocking down a respectable 38.6% of his 3 three-point attempts per game. He's the best ball-pressure PG in the league (his 2.8 steals per game easily leading the league), and his 3.23 assist-to-turnover ratio is even a hair ahead of Nash's 3.15. But it's Nash's obscene shooting percentages and his overall importance in making that Suns' system work that gives him a slight edge over Paul in the MVP race.

There are people who think Manu Ginobili has been more valuable to the Spurs than Tim Duncan has this year. Those people are incorrect. Duncan has always been, and will always be, undervalued because his numbers aren't that great for an MVP candidate, but he's the toughest cover the Spurs have on offense--the one guy who always draws the double team--and he's the most valuable defensive player in the entire league. Ginobili might be a better fantasy player, but Duncan gets the nod in real life.

Carlos Boozer vs. Deron Williams for Utah's best MVP candidate is a tough one. Boozer is a scoring machine, a killer rebounder, and the team's go-to guy. Williams is the unquestionable floor leader, a money shooter, a better defender, and is clutch in his own right. I went with Boozer, but I'm still not entirely convinced. Williams is averaging 21/3/9, and shooting an absurd .512 from the floor and .462 from three. If he's not as good as Carlos Boozer--or Chris Paul, in their lifelong "Best PG in the Class of 2005" competition--it's only by a sliver.

Josh Howard has been--clearly, IMO--the best player on the Dallas Mavericks in the early going. Nowitzki has been a sweet-shooting scoring machine in his career, but Howard has outscored him and out-shot him in all three percentage categories (and has made more 3s) this season. Dirk is still a great player, don't get me wrong, but Josh Howard is becoming The Man in Dallas--I've seen several games recently where he was the guy they turned to in the 4th, and he definitely delivers.

TROUBLE BREWING IN MIAMI

2007-12-06T22:21:00.000-08:00

I think the Heat have a real problem on their hands. They're beyond terrible right now while waiting for Dwyane Wade to get back to his old, awesome self, but that's not what I'm talking about. Wade will get healthy, the team will get back to being competitive in the Eastern Conference--if not by this year, then next...but I strongly think they're well down a path that leads to them losing Wade in the summer of 2010.

This is a team with some serious institutional problems--well, one major institutional problem anyway:

Shaq sucks.

Shaq really, really sucks now.

He came into this season knowing Wade would be out with injury in the early going and that the team would need to rely on him--and he showed up fat and out of shape. He's done that before, of course, but he was able to work himself back into shape when he was 27--now that he's 35, it just doesn't happen that way. And with all the alarm bells ringing and every incentive in the world to prove people wrong, Shaq's averaging a very pedestrian 15 & 7.5 in the early going, and I don't see any improvement happening on the horizon. He's just completely done as even a good player, forget the old "baddest man in sports" golden days.

Now here's the rub: Shaq was signed to a horribly ill-advised contract extension that pays him $20,000,000 per for the next two seasons after this one--that culminates in the summer of 2010, which is exactly when Dwyane Wade has his opt-out. So you're paying this huge amount--in a salary cap sport--to someone who just completely blows now, a guy who can't even stay on the court for 30 minutes due to being so out of shape and foul prone (due to being so out of shape).

Here's what I see happening. They're going to be a middle of the road playoff team at best this year and the next two, and a huge step down from the Eastern big boys Boston, Orlando & Detroit (and maybe Toronto if they can ever get healthy). As the ugly Kobe situation shows, that's not exactly a dream scenario for a player of Wade's insane talent & drive. If everything goes just right, they're looking at some 45 win seasons and a bad second round playoff exit. That's if everything goes right. The worse case is Shaq deteriorates even further, Wade struggles with injury, they lose Ricky Davis in free agency this summer--we could be looking at a lottery team, even in the East. But a crappy kind of lottery team, a #12 pick instead of a #2 pick, the kind that doesn't get you enough help to get you out of the vicious cycle of mediocrity (without a lot of luck).

If this scenario happens--and I don't see how it doesn't--I think Wade is gone. Teams like Portland (or whoever is most like the current Portland team in 2010) will start stockpiling cap room in advance of the summer of 2010, and Wade will have his choice of 3-4 teams with good, young talent.

Ironically, Wade's injury might end up being the only thing that saves his future in Miami. The only way I see out of this mess is for this year's team to keep sucking hard, maybe get some luck in the lottery (or maybe they won't need it, they're currently the 3rd worst team in the league), and snag one of the major talents in what appears to be another strong draft. It won't quite match the Oden/Durant top end, but Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, OJ Mayo and others look like they'll make for a monster class.

Help probably won't be coming in free agency, at least not easily. Shaq's absurd contract combined with Wade's max deal means they have no cap room, and they just don't have much in the way of good, young tradeable pieces (although Daquan Cook and Dorrell Wright could possibly change that in the next two years). If they don't get major help in the draft, they'll likely have to take a chance on a damaged goods free agent (either an injury guy or a headcase), and that almost never works out.

The summers of 2009-2011 are going to be some interesting times indeed for the NBA, with megastars Kobe (2009), Wade (2010), Lebron & Carmelo (2011) all hitting their opt-outs, and all stuck in potentially bad situations. It's funny, but with the recent play of Jordan Farmar and Andrew Bynum, Kobe might have gone from the cusp of the trading block to the the most promising long-term situation of the four.

A FEW QUICKIES

It's really nice to see Richard Jefferson back to 100% healthy. He's always been a good all-around player, but he's been a veritable scoring machine in the early going this year, his 25.9 scoring average a good 3.7 points above his previous career high. He's going to the line a whopping 10.5 times per game (and shooting 84% there), joining Dwight Howard and Lebron James as the only players in double figures.

After watching the Utah Jazz physically dominate the Lakers without Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, I'm really starting to love this team, they're just big, tough, and athletic. Andrei Kirilenko seems to be fully recovered from his year-long nap last year, he's filling up the stat sheet with 11-7-6 and his typically strong blocks (2.4 per) and steals (1.7). Another guy I'm really starting to like on their team is Ronnie Brewer. He struggled last year after being a lottery pick, but he looks like a completely different player this season. He's a very active defender, and has a solid midrange offensive game. Early on, he's averaging a respectable 14-2.7-2.6, an excellent 2.4 steals, and shooting 52% from the floor. Nice player.

After a disastrous start, Golden State is 8-2 in their last 10 and looking like the team that finished up last season white hot. Stephen Jackson returning from suspension has made a huge difference, his athleticism and physicality is a large part of making that Warriors system work. He's averaging 22-5-4 in his first 12 games and does a yeoman's job on defense--not that he's an all-league defender or anything, but that team asks him to constantly d-up guys who are way bigger than him, and a lot of times their success comes down to whether Jackson (and Matt Barnes as well) can hold their own with the tough Western PFs.

Monta Ellis is also starting to come around, as I knew he would--he's just too athletic and talented not to make it. He's now up to 17-4-3 and shooting a very nice .476 from the floor.

Props also to Manu Ginobili; even though he's my single most hated player in the entire league because he's such a flopping piece of shit, you have to give it up for what this man does on the court. In under 30 minutes a game, Ginobili is averaging 21-5-4.5, shooting .478 from the floor and .438 from three, and playing his usual harassing (and flopping) defense. San Antonio just beat Utah *without Duncan* (Ginobili going for 37-8-6) to get to a ridiculous 17-3 on the year, sometimes you just have to tip your cap to a job well done--even when you can't stand the team.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS

2007-11-28T13:21:00.000-08:00

So what's going on around the league?

--The Celtics are still looking damn good. They've dropped 2 of their last 5--but there's no shame in losing @ Orlando and @ Cleveland (with Lebron absolutely going off).

--Speaking of Lebron, you gotta check out what he's doing so far through the season's first 15 games, this is unbelievable:

31.7 PPG
8.0 RPG
8.5 APG
2.1 SPG
1.6 BPG

Those numbers are *sick*. In his last 7, he's averaging--get this--37.6/9.3/10.0. Those are Oscar Robertson numbers! Better! The Cavs started out 4-4 and were going nowhere fast, but with Lebron loading up the franchise on his back, they're 5-2 since with wins over Utah, Toronto and Boston, and back to looking like a team no one's going to want to meet up with in the playoffs. BTW, it's hard to even fathom this, but LBJ is still only 22, he won't turn 23 for another month. How much better can he get?

--How about those Washington Wizards? After a soul-crushing injury to Gilbert Arenas, who'll be out a reported 3 months, the team reeled off 4 wins in 6 games, including a shocking double digit win over Dallas. I don't think they can keep it up, but I want to call out a couple guys who are really stepping it up for this team:

Caron Butler was on the verge of stardom last year, and has solidly improved--so you do the math. To think the fucking Lakers traded this fucking guy for Kwame fucking Brown makes me fucking...OK, take a breath, what's done is done. For the season, Butler is averaging 23/7/3 and 2.2 steals, and is shooting a ridiculous .528 from the floor, .467 from three, and .892 from the line. There aren't 5 wings in the league with better numbers than that, and SG/SF are easily the most loaded positions in the NBA.

Andray Blatche is right on schedule, the 21-year-old big man averaging a respectable 7.6 & 5.1 in just 20 minutes, with 0.7 steals and 1.8 blocks per. Blatche signed a contract extension over the summer; details weren't disclosed, but it's thought to be in the $2.5-$3M a year range. If so, that's looking like a complete steal for the Wizards, he'd get double that easily if he were a free agent this summer.

--Another team playing some good basketball right now is Milwaukee. Oh crap, they just got hammered by the dreadful 76ers last night. Ah, bad games happen--before that horrifying loss they had piled up five straight wins, including impressive victories @ Cleveland and home against the LA Lakers & Dallas Mavericks. They're not a great team (they're still being outscored on average by their opponents), but they have some promise. Yi Jianlian has had a solid start to his NBA career, the 20-year-old posting a respectable 10 & 6, and Michael Redd has added some all-around skills to go with his always deadly scoring--he's averaging 24/6/4 in the early going.

On the flip side, Andrew Bogut has been a bit of a disappointment, IMO. His 12 & 9 averages are respectable--but exactly what he did last year, suggesting he might be topping out far short of what you want from a #1 overall pick.

--So you might have noticed a couple of teams here have picked up quality wins over the Mavs, so what's going on in Dallas? Good question. Their 9-5 record so far extrapolates out to 53 wins, a whopping 14 short of the 67 they piled up last year. They're 3-4 on the road, as opposed to 27-14 in 2006-2007.

Their scoring is up a bit from last year, but they're giving up 5 more points a game on D. I actually think this is somewhat typical for a lot of teams, you can only get the absolutely manic defensive effort out of a team for so long--especially when you have highly skilled players. If you have a Ben Wallace or a Bruce Bowen, you never have to worry about their defensive effort because that's their meal ticket. But when it's Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, etc., those guys want to score, they don't want to go 40 minutes a night spending all their energy shutting someone down. You can bitch and moan about "today's players" (who play infinitely better defense on average than "yesterday's players"), but these guys are only human, it's pretty hard to get up day after day and do something you don't want to do. Think about how much you phone it in at your job.

There's also some concern that Golden State gave the league the blueprint for how to beat this team by going small at C and at PF, taking their two big defensive-minded centers (Dampier & Diop) out of the game, and daring Nowitzki to physically beat your undersized PF. But not many teams have athletic enough guys to get away with that.

I wouldn't be concerned if I were a Dallas fan (well, I wouldn't be that concerned). They'll get it going, they're too talented not to, and I wouldn't mind seeing the team go a little while before starting to peak. It's a long regular season, and nobody's giving you a trophy for shooting your load in the first 82 games and then getting stomped out of the playoffs.

But the trend that I'd find worrisome is Dirk's slump. Here's where I think Golden State really did do some damage, everyone is going with the small defender on Dirk and forcing him to do what he doesn't want to do--be physical. Dirk is way down on points, FG% and 3PT% this year. He won the MVP just last year, it's hard to believe he won't snap out of it and go back to being his usual unstoppable scoring machine self--but he's 29-years-old, it's not out of the question that we're seeing the first stage of his decline, coupled with a better strategic defensive matchup by opposing teams.

Fortunately for the Mavs, it's looking like Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Devin Harris are ready to pick up the scoring slack if Dirk doesn't go back to being Dirk. Howard has been fantastic in the early going, averaging 21/7/2 and shooting .513 from the floor and .855 from the line. Terry is average 17.4 PPG with sparkling shooting percentages: .486/.467/.872. And Devin Harris, who I thought was ready to break out last year, seems to be doing just that in the early part of this season, putting up 16/3/5.5 and shooting a solid .463 from the floor.

Another guy I like a lot on Dallas is Brandon Bass, keep an eye on him. He's an undersized PF (ah, there's that phrase again) out of LSU who inexplicably did nothing in two years in New Orleans, but is now putting up a respectable 9.5 & 5.2 in just 22 minutes per game. What I like about this guy is it gives Dallas an athletic big man to throw in there for when teams try to go small against them. Bass is a much better matchup for Al Harrington, Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson than giant old statues like Dampier & Diop (OK, he's a giant young statue).

--Speaking of gaudy shooting percentages above, let's take a quick look at Steve freakin' Nash. Nash is averaging his customary 19 & 11 and leading the way for the 11-3 Suns--and he's shooting:

.551 from the floor (10th in the league, with Josh Childress at .555 the only guy ahead of him who isn't 6'10+)

.524 from three (4th in the league)

1.000 from the FT line (obviously 1st in the league--he's 40-for-40 on the year)

DARKO MATTER

2007-11-15T01:03:00.000-08:00

I want to say a few words about Darko Milicic. Milicic is regarded as the Ryan Leaf of the NBA, the ultimate draft flop, and there's obviously some basis for thinking that about a guy who was sandwiched between 4 perennial all-stars in Lebron, Carmelo, Bosh & D-Wade.

But I think it's about time we give Darko a little bit of credit for turning himself into a quality NBA starter. No, he'll never be Chris Bosh (forget the big three from that draft class), and it'll always be considered one of the most famous draft screw-ups ever. But now I'm starting to think Detroit's subsequent trade of Darko was almost as dumb.

First off, Darko has turned himself into a completely different player since he joined the league. Where he was a skinny-ish 245 pound combo forward when he was drafted, he's now a solid 280 pound PF/C type. This was a great move for him--he's athletic for a seven footer, but not nearly enough to be a combo forward in the NBA, those guys are generally freakshows. And playing the big SF position requires a high skill level; Darko has skills, for sure, but he's not Kevin Garnett, he's not Andrei Kirilenko. Bulking up has allowed Darko to go from a relatively unathletic, relatively unskilled combo forward to a relatively athletic, relatively skilled big man.

Secondly, let's keep in mind that he's only 22. Look at it this way: if no one had ever heard the name Darko Milicic, and he was drafted this year by Memphis as a 22-year-old center prospect, they'd be thrilled at where he is. After a great game matching up against Yao on both ends of the floor (scoring 20), Darko is now averaging a respectable 11 & 8 with 2.0 blocks per game. That might not be great for "the guy drafted between Lebron and Carmelo", but it's pretty damn solid for a 22-year-old center.

In short, Darko came into the league in an impossible position, and promptly flamed out about as bad as you can possibly flame out. And some of it was his own fault, he reportedly didn't have the greatest atittude or work ethic when he was in Detroit. But I do think he deserves a lot of credit for growing up and remaking himself into a legitimate NBA starting big man. Memphis made a great move picking him up, and I'll be rooting for him and for them.

Speaking of Memphis, Mike Conley is starting to see some minutes here and there, and is producing strongly when he gets them. In just 17 minutes per game over 4 games, Conley is averaging 6.5 points, 5.0 assists, and only 1.0 turnover. I love this guy, he's going to be huge. I said before that he probably wouldn't do much this year, but I think I'm going to back off that a bit--Memphis is figuring out more quickly than expected that Damon Stoudamire ain't leading them to anything, now or ever, and Juan Carlos Navarro has been a huge disappointment for them. Conley and Kyle Lowry are the future for this franchise, and Coach Iavaroni will turn to them soon enough. I predict Conley is getting 25+ minutes per game by January and putting up 10 & 7 type numbers.

Other quick-hitters:

Not only is Boston 7-0 to start the season, they're just blowing teams out. Other than a 3 point road win over a good Toronto team, every other win has been by double figures. Their average margin of victory for the 7 games is an insane 17.2 points. (BTW, next highest is the Spurs, as can be expected; but next after that are the surprising New Orleans Hornets, who are now 7-2, including 4-1 on the road).

For all the excitement about several high-profile players moving to the East, it looks to be the same old junior varsity conference early on: in 39 interconference matchups so far, the West has taken 24 of them, good for a .615 winning percentage. At least the Celtics look like a real competitor with the Western big dogs, but the conference just has no depth after them, Detroit and Orlando.

Welcome to superstardom: Dwight Howard through the first 8 games is averaging 21.9 & 14.6 and blocking 2.6 shots per game. He's even cut his TOs to a respectable 3.0 per game, down a full turnover from last year. Surrounding him with shooters like Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu is genius, Orlando has turned into a real difficult matchup. They haven't played a monster schedule yet, but 5-0 on the road is impressive regardless.

MEN WITHOUT HATS: FUN LOVING VISIONARIES OR HITLER YOUTH?

2007-11-13T12:16:00.000-08:00

So I have some thoughts on Men Without Hats' epic 80s mega-hit, "The Safety Dance". At first glance, it's a wacky, light-hearted song about dancing, looking at your hands, and leaving worlds behind. But let's dig a little deeper into the lyrics:

"...'cause your friends don't dance, and if they don't dance, well, they're no friend of mine."

Wow. That seems a little intolerant, no? If someone doesn't dance, that person is no friend of yours?! Seems a little harsh. I mean, if it were "'cause your friends don't like black people, and if they don't like black people, well, they're no friends of mine", fine, no problem, I'm right there with Men Without Hats on that one. But you can't be friends with someone--can't even stand to be around them--if they don't dance? Damn, man, lighten up.

And worse than the chilling intolerance, it's hypocritical. I mean, after all, what is the spirit of the safety dance? Consider these lyrics:

"We can go where we want to...We can dance if we want to...we can act if we want to..."

Isn't the whole point of the safety dance that you can--and should!--do whatever the hell you want and not worry about what other people think? Well, what if you don't want to dance? Is that the one thing you can't do, not dance? Apparently you can "dance if you want to", as long as you always fucking want to dance.

And what if you're physically disabled--fuck you? I guess there's no place in Men Without Hats' world for a crippled guy. Maybe he should be euthanized, along with those who choose not to dance, so that only able-bodied dancers populate the earth.

Is that your vision of the world, Men Without Hats: dance--or else?

You can act like an imbecile...indeed.

(BTW, this is the kind of thing my wife has to listen to every single day. Except she doesn't get the sharp, polished version, she gets the rambling, thinking-out-loud version. God bless her.)

EARLY TRENDS

2007-11-08T11:31:00.000-08:00

POSITIVE:

1. New Orleans Hornets

I like what New Orleans is doing in their 4-1 start. They're far from an elite team, but it's accomplishment enough to even make the playoffs in the Western Conference, and I think they're gonna do it this year. They have a cool offensive system where they line up with two big time shooters (Morris Peterson, Rasual Butler and Peja Stojakovic, looking like his old sweet-shooting self), a good all-around PF with a nice shooting touch (David West), and a giant rebounder (Tyson Chandler), and it's all led by superstar in the making Chris Paul.

Other teams have tried this format, putting a bunch of shooters on the floor with a couple big rebounders, but what makes it work for New Orleans is the genius of Chris Paul. As I watched him dismantle the Lakers with 21 assists (against 2 turnovers), I just marvelled at what this guy can do with the basketball. Virtually every offensive possession the Hornets have goes like this: Paul penetrates past his man with ridiculous ease, the defense collapses on him at the FT line (or if they don't, he just takes it to the basket), he kicks to whoever is now open out of Peterson, Peja and West, they get a wide open shot. Or if the center comes at him, he dumps off to Chandler for a garbage bucket. And the thing is, he never makes the wrong decision. New Orleans is shooting 43% from three on 21+ attempts per game, and Paul is averaging 12.4 assists per.

I like this team a lot, they're fun to watch. (And keep your eye on rookie Julian Wright; he's not getting regular PT and probably won't this season, but I saw him get some minutes against Portland a week ago and he looked like he could be a real player down the line).

2. Atlanta Hawks

I can't believe what this team is doing--wins over Phoenix and Dallas, a heartbreaking 1-point road loss to Detroit, and another close road loss at New Jersey to be the most impressive 2-2 team in basketball. They haven't given up 100 points in a game yet, holding Phoenix to 96 last night (impressive even with Amare injured).

All of a sudden the Hawks are a very good rebounding team, led by promising rookie Al Horford (getting almost 11 boards per game in under 30 minutes per).

Super-athlete Josh Smith is doing everything (except taking good shots). Check out these averages through the first four games: 17.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.5 steals, 4.0 blocks. What a freakshow.

And Marvin Williams looks like a completely different player, as sometimes happens in a player's third season. Williams is being aggressive taking the ball to the basket and getting the line, and is averaging a very nice 18/6/2, shooting over 60% from the floor and over 80% from the line (on a solid 5.5 attempts per game). He's become a real tough matchup, and is even playing some solid defense. I mean, let's keep in mind that Williams is only 21, he played only one year at North Carolina--the book on him may have been closed a tad too soon.

And another thing I like about this team is it's depth. In addition to it's solid starting lineup of Joe Johnson, the 3 guys listed above, and Random Shitty Point Guard, the team has super-sub Josh Childress (my vote for the league's most underrated player) and Shelden Williams, and has solid center Zaza Pachulia coming back from injuries any day now. This team is big, athletic and deep, but has the same problem it's had forever--crappy PG play. There is some hope in the form of rookie Acie Law, at least as a scoring threat, but I don't think he can be a major playmaking PG in the NBA. But with Joe Johnson leading the show, maybe they don't need him to be--time will tell.

NEGATIVE

1. Phoenix Suns

I'm not saying they won't be a great team once Amare gets healthy, they almost certainly will be. But flash forward to next May, I think this team has some serious issues to address before it goes up against the other Western Conference big dogs. Thanks to being owned by some sort of paralegal or OfficeMax regional manager who can't afford to purchase real NBA-caliber reserves , the team has absolutely no depth. Their big men off the bench are Brian Skinner and Sean Marks. Seriously.

This is a 7 man team, and 2 of those guys--Grant Hill and Amare Stoudemire--come with major injury concerns. And do you really want Steve Nash playing 40 minutes a game for 82 games? That sounds like an excellent strategy for winning a championship. This team's roster should be forcibly removed from Phoenix's owner's broke-ass hands and given to somebody willing to spend a few more million dollars to add some goddamn depth. This franchise doesn't deserve such a cool and talented team, it should be in LA or NY--or anywhere that doesn't sell half their #1 picks for cash. I mean, seriously, Robert Sarver, do you need me to float you a couple hundred? Are you OK to pay your bills, is the electricity in America West Arena going to go out in the middle of a game?

This team needs another guard (or they need to play Marcus Banks 20 minutes a game), they need another swing player for when Grant Hill gets hurt, and they desperately need a quality big man or three. What are they going to do if and when they play San Antonio, put Amare on Tim Duncan the whole game? He picks up a foul every 3 minutes against Duncan, so now you've just taken your top scorer out of the game and you have Brian Skinner one-on-one with Tim Duncan--with Sean Marks waiting in the wings. That'll work.

What an embarassment this franchise is. The Suns' fans deserve better, Steve Nash deserves better, and the whole goddamn NBA in general deserves better.

2. Chicago

Nice call on not pulling the trigger on the Kobe trade, Paxson. Now your team is in free-fall, the young guys aren't panning out like you hoped they would, and the Lakers are playing pretty well (and with Lamar Odom due back soon)--so Kobe's most likely off the table. For now. We'll see what happens in another month, I'm certainly not counting any chickens. But regardless, the asking price just went up for Kobe while your assets have devalued.

Chicago's sitting here looking like they have exactly the same team as last year. Their best scorer is a 6'0 gunner (Ben Gordon), Luol Deng is still good but not yet on step one of the superstar track, Tyrus Thomas is oozing athleticism but his game is all over the map, and Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni are both decent but too inconsistent to be more than that.

Everyone always overrates potential, they always think their young guys are just on the cusp of exploding, but even promising players like Deng and Gordon and Thomas are so far from being superstars that you can't treat them like they're the 18-year-old Lebron James. Or the 29-year-old Kobe Bryant, for that matter. Like I've said all along, if Deng even makes it to the Paul Pierce level, consider yourself lucky as hell and pat each other on the back for making one hell of a draft pick--and Pierce has never led a team to jackshit. If you have a chance to get Kobe--in his prime--and have the ability to surround him with some good talent, you do it. Period.

Chicago will be fine, they'll get their shit together and win 45 or 48 games or whatever, and lose in the second round of the playoffs. But what they thought was going to happen--all these young guys exploding onto the scene, Deng joining the ranks of the true studs in the league, and the team developing into a real contender--ain't happening.

FILLED TO THE BRIM WITH GIRLISH GLEE

2007-11-04T23:30:00.000-08:00

OK, I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm here--we are only 1/27th of the way through the season after all--but with my guys coming off back to back double digit wins over top 5 teams without Lamar Odom...well, let's just say: so far, so good.

Again, it's so early and it's just a couple of games (in the NBA where anything can happen, especially when you catch someone on game two of a back-to-back like the Lakers had with both Phoenix and Utah), that the results themselves don't really mean much. But there have been some very positive developments that are giving me just that slighest glimmer of hope:

1. The young guys look great. Andrew Bynum still isn't starting (although you have to hand it to Phil Jackson, Kwame Brown is playing shockingly solid so far), but has put up two very strong games in a row off the bench, with 14 & 13 in 22 minutes against Phoenix, and a huge 15 & 9 in 19 minutes tonight against Utah. The big fella has been playing smart and hard, he's destroying people on the glass, getting garbage buckets in the lane with his unbelievable hands, and giving them a real shotblocking presence.

Jordan Farmar was key in the 3rd and 4th quarters tonight when the Lakers put the game out of reach against a tough Utah team, coming up with 12 & 4 in 17 minutes.

Ronny Turiaf is the ultimate hustle guy, giving them great energy that'll serve the team well when he's coming off the bench upon Odom's return.

And Vladimir Radmanovic is showing signs of shaking off last year's cruddy season and is playing with the kind of confidence he had with the Clippers two years ago. He absolutely *buried* the Suns.

2. With a tough early schedule, this team had the potential of turning into a Notre Dame. With all the controversy over Kobe, some bad losses early could have really sunk the ship. I'm sure Kobe still would have played hard, all the talk about him not doing so was just poppycock, but everyone knows when he's disgruntled and it filters though the whole organization.

A bad start would have had the media sharks getting into a feeding frenzy, everyone would have been playing scared, it could have been a really bad scene. And I would have been very concerned about Lakers management making a panic move on the Kobe front, like taking a deal with Chicago that doesn't include Luol Deng.

I suppose it's still very possible the Lakers end up mediocre or worse, maybe we'll be talking in a couple weeks about what an outlier these last two games were. But I'm a hell of a lot less worried about a bad start now then I was before the season. The team is playing with incredible energy, getting tons of turnovers, sharing the ball unbelievably well, crashing the boards--it just doesn't look like a team on the precipice.

But it could all turn quickly, at least in terms of the team reverting back to mediocrity. I'm hardly sold that this is suddenly a 50+ win team. And they desperately need Odom back, the offense will look a lot different when the scrubs stop shooting the ball like they're Reggie Miller, Glen Rice and Ray Allen. But I'm encouraged by the team's energy, by how hard they're playing and how obviously enthusiastic they are, and I'm especially encouraged that a lot of that energy and effort is coming from the young guys. Here's hoping they can keep it up.

BOXSCORE CHECK

2007-10-31T20:12:00.000-07:00

A quick check of the boxscores of the NBA's opening two nights reveals the following interesting nuggets:

WEDNESDAY

Yi Jianlian gets the start in Milwaukee. I'm not surprised--I was a skeptic coming into the draft, but started coming around on him when I saw him in preseason. He's raw, but he's got some game. Put up 9 & 3 in 25 minutes on 4-5 shooting, not too shabby.

Rashard Lewis had 26 points on 9-13 shooting (incl. 4-5 from 3) in his Orlando debut, a blowout win over Milwaukee. Dwight Howard had 7 blocks in the game, absolutely destroying Andrew Bogut.

How do you like my boy Andrea Bargnani? 20 points in 22 minutes, on 6-11 shooting (3-4 from three). I'm telling you, this guy can really score. He doesn't do much else, but he can fill it up. TJ Ford piled up 12 assists against just 1 turnover in the Raptors uptempo system--exciting things happening in the great white north as they start out with a solid win over Philly.

Danny Granger begins his march to Josh Howard-hood with a nice 20 & 13 performance in a solid Pacers' OT win over Washington without Jermaine O'Neal. Granger went 5-9 (!) from three and had 2 steals and 2 blocks.

Tyrus Thomas struggled after getting the start in Chicago, putting up just 4 & 6 with no steals or blocks. They need more activity from him than that, and I'm sure they'll get it. If not, Andres Nocioni could be in for more minutes.

Same game--nice to see Richard Jefferson back healthy, he had a great debut with 29 & 10, playing 44 minutes as the Nets notched a solid win over the Bulls.

New Orleans blew out Sacto, I think they're going to be pretty damn good if they can stay healthy--but in a monster western conference, a "pretty damn good" team might not even make the playoffs. Anyway, Chris Paul had 22/8/12, Peja had 19 with 4 three pointers, and Tyson Chandler kept up his strong play from late last year, putting up 15 & 13 with 2 blocks.

And then there was Kevin Durant, struggling a bit in his debut. He had 18 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals and a block, but shot just 7-22 from the floor. Like I said a while ago, Durant will put up great numbers this year, but watch out for a terrible shooting percentage--this kid puts it up from anywhere on the floor. I think he has the same issue as Kobe Bryant when it comes to shot selection: any shot he takes is one that he's made hundreds of times in his lifetime--but that doesn't make it a good shot. Just because you can hit a 20-foot turnaround fadeaway from the baseline doesn't mean you should. It's just a matter of him figuring out which shots he can make 50% of the time and which ones he can make 40%--and taking a lot more of the former than the latter. He'll have some ups and downs this year, but make no mistake, I'm still president and founder of the Kevin Durant Fan Club.

TUESDAY

Great start to the season for LaMarcus Aldridge, he was unstoppable against a tough San Antonio front line, scoring 27 on 12-19 shooting. Martell Webster also stepped up, piling up 21 points after earning the start at SF. San Antonio ended up pulling away in the end, but Portland played them tough--on the road--for much of the game. If Oden were healthy, I think Portland is a playoff team as early as this season.

In the Laker loss to Houston, Kwame Brown got the surprise start over Andrew Bynum, but that may have been a punishment for Bynum being late to the game (my friend was stuck in traffic for 3 hours that night--going 20 miles--so I'm not going to attribute this to Bynum's immaturity). Kwame continued to stink, but Bynum had a couple nice stretches in limited minutes.

Not much else to report from this game--Kobe, Yao and T-Mac are all very good, and Houston's better than LA.

There was an Andrei Kirilenko sighting in Utah, AK-47 coming up with 9/9/8 with a steal and 5 blocks in a blowout win over Golden State. Deron Williams started strong in what I expect to be his coming out season with 24 & 8, and Ronnie Brewer had 18 after getting the starting nod at SG.

For Golden State, playing without the suspended Stephen Jackson, Kelenna Azuibuike got the start and had 11. Monta Ellis also started and put in 17. Marco Belinelli didn't get off the bench much, with 6 points in just 12 minutes, but PT status can change in a heartbeat with Don Nelson.

BREAKOUT PERFORMERS, PART 2

2007-10-29T13:57:00.001-07:00

THE DARKHORSES

Before I get into it, let me clarify that I'm basing these picks on a ridiculously small sample size. See, I have this theory. Anybody in the NBA can have a good game. Hell, I remember a game when Matt Carroll---Matt freakin' Carroll--absolutely torched Kobe. The Lakers lost a game because one of the league's best perimeter defenders couldn't handle Matt freakin' Carroll.

But he didn't do anything special, he was just feeling it and had a lights-out shooting game. If he could make those shots every game, he'd be a shorter Dirk Nowitzi. But he can't consistently do what he did that night. I knew for a fact that I wasn't watching a breakout performance from one of the league's next superstars, I was just seeing a scrubby player get into the zone.

Now there's the opposite situation, where a player will do something that makes me do a double take, makes me look at him in an entirely different way. Matt Carroll can get red hot and make a bunch of shots, but he can't dribble through an entire team and throw down an absurd dunk in traffic--and when I saw Monta Ellis do that as a rookie, I took note.

I still didn't know for a fact that he'd end up being a real up-and-comer, there's still a major consistency issue. OK, you've done it once, now do it lots of times, game after game, season after season. But I did mentally adjust what I considered his top end to be.

I can watch one game of Matt Carroll's and know exactly how good he can possibly be. But when I see someone do something as spectacular as what Ellis did, it's like, wow, this guy could still end up sucking, he could still end up being mediocre, he could still end up being just pretty good--but he did something that showed me that he at least has a chance of being a real superstar, because that play was something that 95% of the league simply can't do, even when they're having one of those Matt-Carroll-torching-Kobe games.

So these are guys who've shown me something. Most games I'm watching that aren't the Lakers or Phoenix-Dallas or something, I'm only casually paying attention. But sometimes someone will do something that makes me literally double or triple take, where I'll have to rewind it a couple times to make sure I saw what I thought I saw. I still don't know if these players will pan out the way Ellis is doing, but they at least have the high end potential to be something more than Matt Carroll-in-the-zone.

In no particular order...

Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics

I love what this guy has done in preseason, he could end up being a valuable part of the support staff to the Celtics' big three. Rondo can drive on anyone in the league, he's a solid finisher, a good passer, and has some of the quickest hands in the NBA. If he can develop any semblance of a jumpshot, even a midrange one, he'll be a real tough matchup.

Shawne Williams, Indiana Pacers

I think this skinny 6'9 combo forward is still more than a year away (he's only 21), but I think he has a ton of potential--at least offensively. I saw a game of his late in the year where he looked fantastic, shooting the three, taking the ball to the rim, finishing on the break. He looks smooth out there, and with super high end athleticism. Check back in another year, I think he'll be on all the up-and-comer lists.

Thabo Sefalosha, Chicago Bulls

I said last year that this guy can really play, but will probably get lost in the shuffle in a talent-laden Chicago. Barring a trade, I don't see much different happening this year. That's OK, Sefalosha has time, he's only 23. Sefalosha, from Switzerland, is a super smooth shooting guard with great size, he's an excellent ballhandler, has nice form on the jumper, and could end up being an all-league caliber defender.

Amir Johnson, Detroit Pistons

Everyone has been waiting for this kid to finally get some PT after kicking ass in the D-League and putting up a couple monster games (f0r a second straight year) in late regular season scrub time, and the Pistons say he's going to get it this year. Playing against Philadelphia's decent first stringers last year, including a solid front line of Samuel Dalembert, Steven Hunter and Joe Smith, Johnson went for 12 & 10 with 6 blocks. Against the Celtics' Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins, an excellent and solid player respectively, Johnson had 20 & 12 with 3 steals and 4 blocks. If nothing else (this season), Amir will throw some weak shit back in people's faces, I can guarantee that.

Andray Blatche, Washington Wizards

This was a straight-from-high-school 2nd round draft pick in 2005 who kind of got lost in the shuffle a little, but is now starting to turn a few heads. He only just turned 21, and is a legit 6'11 250 pounds with excellent athleticism. The Wizards gave him a few starts last year and he averaged a solid 7 & 6 with 1.2 blocks per in only 23 minutes. He's got great size, great athleticism, a solid skill level with a suprisingly soft touch, and he's got nice energy. He also handles the ball pretty well, he's almost more of a combo forward than a PF/C type. I like this guy a lot. On a team with no real big man depth, I think Blatche could start to really bust out by the end of the season.

Darius Washington, San Antonio Spurs

OK, here's a real dark horse for you. Washington is out of Memphis, he left early after his sophomore year and went undrafted. The Mavs picked him up last year and then cut him, now he's with the Spurs. The 21-year-old point guard will likely contribute little to nothing this year for the champion Spurs, but keep an eye on him down the line. The Spurs are the best team in the league at indentifying talent (see: Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, et al), and I've read that they're super high on Washington. He's lightning quick, but with the size and strength to finish at the rim. He's not a lights out shooter, and isn't a natural PG--more of a combo guard. But he's been great in preseason and I think the Spurs are looking at him as an eventual part of a rebuilding process when the Duncan era ends (hopefully soon).

Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz

This is kind of a cheapie, as most hardcore NBA fans already know all about Millsap, an undersized PF out of Louisiana Tech, but I just want to reiterate how awesome he is and what a great draft pick Utah made to get him in the middle of the 2nd round. In just 18 minutes per game last year, Millsap averaged 7 & 5 with almost one steal and block per game. He's smallish at just 6'8, but he's wide (260 pounds), strong as hell, very active, and surprisingly athletic--don't PFs with that description seemingly always make it big in the NBA? Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, etc. Meanwhile the Lakers are stuck with Kwame Brown, an ideally sized block of muscle who's below average in every single aspect of being an NBA power forward.

Robert Swift, Seattle Supersonics

OK, I'm going way out there again. Swift not only has done almost nothing in his short NBA career, he's also now coming off a major knee injury that cost him an entire season. It's just that 2 years ago, his second season in the NBA, I thought he was starting to put it together a little. In 20 starts that year, in just 27 minutes per game, he put up a solid 8 & 7 and a very solid 1.7 blocks. He's skinny and somewhat awkward, but I think he has a good skill level--and he is a legit seven footer after all. I hope he can get completely healthy and start showing us what he can do by the second half of this season. But there might be a problem with a crowded Seattle front court--in addition to Nick Collison and fellow first-round-pick seven-footers Saer Sene and Johan Petro, there's new addition Kurt Thomas.

Kelenna Azuibuike/Marco Belinelli, Golden State Warriors

Who knows what guys are going to get minutes in Don Nelson's manic system, but I'm telling you, these two guys can really play. Azuibuike tore up the D-League and then performed well for the Warriors last year when they called him up, giving the team 7 points a game in 16 minutes per over 41 games. He's got great size for a shooting guard at 6'5 220, he's a big time athlete, and has solid skills--he can shoot, handle, and defend. The Warriors are absolutely loaded with swing players, including Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, and Al Harrington, but I predict Azuibuike ends up getting minutes and producing for this team.

In fact, it's because of Azuibuike that I'm slightly cooler on Belinelli, a 21-year-old 6'5 shooting guard out of Italy--than many other NBA types. Don't get me wrong, I love his game, I just don't know if he'll be able to break into the crowded rotation for 20 minutes a game. But it's Don Nelson, so who the hell knows, maybe Belinelli will be starting and getting 33 minutes by the end of the year. What Belinelli has going for him in the Don Nelson system is that he can really pull. He has one of the quickest releases in the league, and crazy range. Belinelli may or may not produce this year, but mark it down, he will down the line.

Al Thornton, Los Angeles Clippers

Of all the rookies in this draft class, I think Thornton is the most likely to produce this year except for Kevin Durant and Al Horford. Thornton has been fantastic in preseason as an athletic and energetic combo forward, and Elton Brand's injury opens the door to major PT. Thornton also has a smooth stroke, he can definitely put the ball in the basket.

Jordan Farmar, Los Angeles Lakers

What kind of blogger would I be if I didn't have irrational exuberance over my home team? Seriously, I love what I've seen of Farmar this preseason, I think he's made a major jump forward. I thought his problems last year--streaky shooting, too many turnovers--were relatively easy to fix, and it looks like he's greatly improved in those areas. Farmar has good size and outstanding athleticism (he has like a 42" vertical leap), he can penetrate and pass, and can potentially be a great defender. It's just a question now of playing smart and under control, and knocking down the many wide open shots a PG gets in the Laker triangle offense with Kobe Bryant commanding the attention he does.

FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGHTS

2007-10-26T18:40:00.000-07:00

So I watched the Boston Celtics dismantle Cleveland--with most of the starters playing big minutes--in preseason tonight, and I'm getting pretty excited about this team.

I love how the big three play together, they're all sharing the ball (34 assists on 45 baskets tonight!) and playing smart, and everyone is feeding off Garnett's unbelievable intensity and energy. Pierce is a one-man halfcourt offense, Garnett does everything on the court you could possibly ask for, and Allen is just sitting out there beyond the three point line being patient, licking his chops and knocking down daggers.

But here's the thing--I'm starting to think their supporting cast can develop into a real asset by the end of the season. I think Kendrick Perkins can be an excellent role player if you ask him to simply rebound whatever KG misses, block shots and get garbage baskets. Playing with the three superstars really takes the pressure off, and I think the big fella is going to thrive in his limited role.

I'm also very high on the young point guard, Rajon Rondo. I liked him a lot last year, but wondered if he'd get lost in the shuffle this season with three solid ballhandlers dominating the team. It's still possible--Boston looks like it wants to run the offense through Ray Allen quite a bit--but he really put on a show tonight. He can drive at will, he's a good finisher at the basket and getting better all the time, and he's a solid passer. I think he's going to cause a lot of problems for teams who are already having a nightmare of a time matching up with the big three.

Tony Allen probably will get lost in the shuffle a bit, but the guy can definitely play--it'll just come down to whether he can thrive as a role player or not, not everyone is suited to that. If he can't fit the bill, then there's always instant-offense Eddie House, one of my favorite scrub players to watch in the NBA.

Speaking of guys who thrive as role players, the Celts quietly made an excellent acquisition this summer in snagging James Posey. Posey can play--and defend--three positions, he can handle the ball, finish on the break, clean up on the glass, and he just gives them a big time energy guy and steady veteran off the bench. If either Pierce or Allen gets hurt this year, you can toss Posey in there for 40 minutes no problem.

The major weakness on the Celtics' bench is their big men. Rookie Glen Davis looks very promising at a svelte 290 pounds (down significantly from his LSU days), but I don't know how much you can count on him right away. The others fighting for playing time are non-household-names Leon Powe and Brian Scalabrine, and old pro Scott Pollard figures to be in the mix by default--they have no other centers on the entire roster. Even if KG gets some minutes there, you're going to need someone else to hold down the fort on the many occasions Perkins is in foul trouble.

Bottom line, the conventional wisdom is right, this team lives or dies on its big three and isn't loaded with depth. But if Perkins and Rondo come out strong this season, and they get solid bench play from Posey, Tony Allen and Eddie House--and something from at least one of the big guys--that'll be what takes Boston from a good 50-win team in the junior varsity conference to a true championship contender. Here's hoping it happens. I generally hate Boston sports team as much as anyone else outside of Boston--most especially the 80s-era Celtics. But I have an impossible time not rooting for Kevin Garnett. He's exactly what sportswriters and fans always ask from their athletes, a guy who would step on babies and kick old ladies in the face to win games.

What, you don't want to see Kevin Garnett kick an old woman in the face?

Sure you don't.

BREAKOUT PERFORMERS

2007-10-23T13:25:00.000-07:00

I know everyone has one of these lists out right now, but mine will be different because it....uh....will be good. Remember how I was all over Monta Ellis, Mo Williams, Al Jefferson and Leandro Barbosa this time last year? Yeah, I thought so, bitch.

OK, I'm going to break this into two sections--guys everyone else is pimping (I didn't even include Andre Iguodala above, since everyone and his grandmother knew he'd bust out), and the dark horses.

POPULAR PICKS

1. LeMarcus Aldridge.

I said last year he should have been the #1 pick, and I think I'd still go in that direction (although I expect Tyrus Thomas and Andrea Bargnani to make big moves this year). Aldridge is a legit 6'10 and has one of the longest wingspans in the league. He's a highly skilled player with a sweet J and well-developed post moves, and he's tougher than everyone thought he'd be. Don't get me wrong, you're not going to confuse this skinny bastard with Shaq, but he can bang around inside, pick up 8-10 boards, and block shots. He would have been the ideal complement to a healthy Greg Oden, a true center, but alas, that plan is on hold for a year. Still, with or without Oden, the team thought highly enough of Aldridge to send 20-10 Zach Randolph packing, they clearly believe Aldridge is ready to step up to a productive 35-minute-a-night big man.

In Aldridge's final 15 games last year before getting hurt, all starts, he put up 14.7 & 8 on .519 shooting and averaged 0.9 steals and 1.6 blocks per--all in just over 30 minutes per game. With Randolph out of the picture and Oden on the sidelines, I think Aldridge will start out with those kind of numbers and then improve steadily through the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up an Al Jefferson second half from last year where he's going 20 & 10 with 2 blocks a night.

2. Danny Granger
(BTW, this numbering system doesn't mean anything)

Everyone is picking this guy to break out, he has Josh Howard written all over him. Every time I saw him play last year, I couldn't believe he was averaging only 13 a game. In the second half of last year he bumped that to 15, but I think he should go even higher this season. He's a solid shooter, good at going to the rim & finishing once he's there, and money from the line--that should add up to 17-18 a game easy. And you can throw in 5-6 boards, 2-3 assists and excellent defense on top of that.

3. Deron Williams

I know, he's already damn good, but looking at his numbers last year--16 & 9--I think he's going to solidly improve on that and join the ranks of the true superstars. We all saw what he could do in the playoffs last year, and watching him in the FIBA Americas Championship just clinched it for me. Williams has to be brimming with confidence coming into this season, I think he's getting ready to completely blow up.

4. Mike Conley Jr.

I don't know if Conley will be a star from day one, but I think he'll be one of these young PGs who wins more and more PT from the starting veteran throughout the season, then finishes strong as the #1 guy. I've seen Damon Stoudamire & Terrence Kinsey--they're no Mike Conley. He can't shoot, but like Chris Paul, he can do everything else. He drives at will, he has a solid midrange game, he's a great ballhandler and gifted passer--he just has a very mature, NBA-ready game. I think Conley has a good chance to be the next great young PG after Paul & Williams.

5. Randy Foye

Another guy who might not start out like a house on fire, but should have steady improvement through the year and then finish strong when a crappy Minnesota team commits fully to the youth movement. In Foye's last 10 games, he put up 15.4/3.5/3.8. In his last 30, he averaged 12.2/2.6/3.5 in 26 minutes, solid per-minute numbers, and shot .448 from the floor, .875 from the line, and an excellent .393 from three on almost 3 attempts per game. I'm still not sure about Foye's long term superstardom prospects--gut says no--but I think he'll be a solid 16 & 5 guy by the end of this season.

6. Andrea Bargnani

I like this dude a lot. Didn't think I would, but I do. I'm not sure I want this guy playing center for me, but small forward? Absolutely. After the all-star break, Bargnani put up a solid 14.9 & 5.6 (in fewer than 30 minutes per game) and shot .456 from the floor and a sparkling .403 from three on 5.5 attempts per game. In short, the man can pull. Bargnani is expected to start this year and get big minutes. This is a young, exciting, hungry team playing an uptempo system, and with strong PG play. I don't see any way Bargnani doesn't become an offensive force this season.

7. Nene

Nene had a huge second half for Denver, finally staying healthy and showing why this team gave him $60M before he had accomplished jack in the league. Post all-star, he averaged 14 & 8 with 1.1 steals and .9 blocks, shooting a ridiculous .624 from the floor. Hey, dunks count for 2 points too. He's coming off yet another injury, suffered in the FIBA Americas Championship, but all reports have him likely ready to go by the start of the season or shortly thereafter. This guy is still only 25--if he can stay healthy, there's still a ton of upside here.

8. Andrew Bynum

This could be a major case of wishful thinking, but I honestly think Big Andrew has done well to position himself for a breakout season. I said last year I'd be able to tell from the first preseason game what Bynum is going to do this year based on his waistline alone, and I can tell you, all the reports about him busting his ass in the offseason appear to be on the level, he looks like he's in the best shape of his life. Skills aren't the problem, Bynum has a solid post game, outstanding hands, he rebounds and blocks shots--it's his general fitness level that's lacking, and I have high hopes that he's addressed that.

If he wins the starting job (and if he doesn't win it outright to start the season, he will once Phil Jackson realizes yet again how bad Kwame Brown & Chris Mihm suck) and plays hard for 30+ minutes a game, I think you can pencil in 12 & 10 with 2 blocks--basically a slight improvement over his January numbers when he had that great stretch that left the Lakers poo-poohing offers for Kevin freakin' Garnett. If he's too fat/slow/disinterested/foul-prone, expect him to be lost in the shuffle again and the Lakers organization (and your humble scribe) to go into complete panic mode.

To be clear here, I'm not saying Bynum is an especially lazy player, I just think he's a typical young guy who doesn't know how much hard work even the most physically gifted player has to put in in order to become a superstar. Maybe he'll get it, maybe he won't. Time will certainly tell.

Even more obvious breakout candidates than those above: Brandon Roy, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Corey Maggette, Luol Deng

On the fence, but gut says no: Ray Felton, Marvin Williams, Jameer Nelson

On the fence, but gut says yes: Rudy Gay

Next time: The Darkhorses

TV THOUGHTS

2007-10-16T19:45:00.000-07:00

OLD SHOWS

The Office--

I think The Office is in a 1994-Simpsons kind of run right now, where they're just knocking every single episode out of the park. The episode from two weeks ago, with the launch party (and the brilliant B-story of Dwight competing in sales against the Dunder Mifflin website) was one of the best things I've seen in the last five years.

And I don't know if all the episodes this season are going to be an hour long (probably not, as Scrubs is FUCKING UNBELIEVABLY coming back for yet another death rattle--does Zach Braff have a sense of shame?!), but what show does more than they have to? What show looks at a 22-episode schedule and decides they can do more than that. And then do it. Brilliantly. The hour-long episodes have been fantastic from minute 1 to minute 60.

This is the Tom Brady of television right now, the best show in the best run of its lifetime.

2. 30 Rock

30 Rock started to really hit its stride in the last couple months last year, and I think they've come back strong to start season two. This is my second favorite network sitcom now (not that there's a huge amount of competition--I mean, look at the new ones this year: Carpoolers? The Big Bang Theory? Back to You? Painful. Just painful.) I think My Name is Earl got a desperately needed bit of fresh air from the Earl-goes-to-prison story, but IMO, 30 Rock is way better.

3. Heroes

Ugh. I was already on the fence on this blatant X-Men ripoff by the end of last season, and this one has started out as a real stinker. I loathe the Hiro story where he goes back in time to help the guy who will become Japanese legend. Oh no, what if the guy always remains a drunken coward, imagine the repercussions! Oh wait, there wouldn't be any. At all. So who gives a shit? I'm guessing they're including this because Kensai will turn out to be one in a long line of heroes that reaches back to the Knights Templar (or something else from recent popular culture the writers can shamelessly rip off).

The Clair story sucks, the two new Mexican characters are awful (and mildly racist, as they're seen with the usual brown-people childlike wonder & superstition in religion that us white folk understand on a much more intellectual level), and I want Parkman and the Indian guy to kill each other in some sort of a duel. The only stories I care at all about are Siler's (wait--I thought he was killed in an act of selflessness (which I guess wasn't all that selfless because everyone seems to be A-OK now)--nope, guess not) and Peter's.

I can see how other people like this show--like my wife, for instance--but I personally think it has some of the laziest writing on TV. The whole idea was a ripoff to start, the dialogue is terrible, and I don't think they had a clue at the end of last season where they were taking the story. I can understand not having the scripts written because you have no idea if the show's going to be picked up or not, but don't you at least have an idea of where you might want to take the main story lines? And if not, you can't think up something better on the fly than "everybody sacrifices to kill the bad guy in an epic showdown, but now the bad guy's OK and so is everyone else". Huh. So, Tim Kring...what was the point of all that then? Oh, you don't know either. I see.

4. Friday Night Lights

This breaks my heart, but what was last year one of my favorite shows on TV now...isn't. The great thing about this show has always been it's authenticity, every line of dialogue and every situation was completely believable and true to life (other than, ironically, the overly dramatic last-second football wins). Now they introduce us in season two to this ridiculous teen-horror-movie murder story--from the first second Landry hit the guy, I knew this show had gone terribly wrong. I guess they feel they have to do something to get some viewers, it barely squeaked through to get another season, but this has completely changed the show into something it never was. And what it is now, I don't like. I guess I'll stick with it another episode or two, but the show is officially on notice.

NEW SHOWS

This crop has been a real piece of crap collectively, but I've found a few that I like.

1. Pushing Daisies

This show isn't for everyone, it's quirky as hell, but I really, really like it. It's a dark comedy about a guy who can temporarily bring people back to life, under a set of quirky & arbitrary conditions. It's funny (but again, their sense of humor is definitely not for everyone), weird, and visually attractive. And it's the most original thing to hit network TV in years. Give it a try.

2. Reaper

This is another quirk-fest, about a kid (played by the excellent Bret Harrison from The Loop) who's had his soul sold to the devil by his parents and is forced to work as a catcher of escapees from hell. It's part slacker comedy, part Buffy the Vampire Slayer, and the end result is pretty winning.

3. Aliens in America

Another CW show, along with Reaper, that's trying to do something different. This show is about a family in Wisconsin who takes in a Muslim foreign exchange student, with a vibe like That 70's Show. I'm not 100% fully on board with this show yet--it's patchy in spots--but I think it has a lot of potential.

4. Cavemen

This is another one where I think it's been only OK so far, and too inconsistent, but with potential. The most recent episode, the frozen yogurt one, was pretty solid IMO, I laughed consistently the whole way through. A friend says this show might turn out to be a winner because of the talent of the 3 guys who play the main characters, and I think I agree with him--they're all pretty good, especially the pompous grad student. But I don't know if this show is going to make it, it's hemorrhaged a lot of viewers after a strong start, that's not a good sign. It was probably on a short leash to begin with.

And to close, an exegesis of one of my favorite unintentionally hilarious commercials on TV:

It's for Liberty Mutual insurance company, the one where a person sees someone do a good deed, so they do a good deed later on. Then someone sees that and does their own good deed, etc., etc., and it keeps going in a never-ending cycle.

So the last two go like this--A black woman sees a young man help out some pathetic old guy with his luggage at the airport carousel, and she nods her head and is like, "helping people is good--I never thought of it like that before!"

So we cut to her scene of selflessness--it's a stoned pizza delivery guy jamming to his iPod who's about to walk directly in front of a bus--but the black chick holds him back. That's her random act of kindness, stopping someone from getting himself splattered all over the street. I'm not saying that's not a good thing to do, but what's funny here is the implication that, before seeing the young guy helping out the old dude at the airport, she would have seen the pizza guy and just been like, "Good luck with that buddy."--or maybe even chuckled a little to herself, "Ha--that guy's about to die!"

But fortunately that helpful young man taught her a little something about life and humanity--if someone's about to get themselves killed...intervene! Thank you Liberty Mutual Insurance Company!

KOBE: THE FINAL CHAPTER?

2007-10-13T11:28:00.000-07:00

I don't think so. Kobe rumors are heating up again, but earlier reports that had his locker cleaned out are getting no confirmation whatsoever. My guess? If he's not traded in the next 24 hours, then we're right back to where we were yesterday: Kobe doesn't get traded unless someone finally sucks it up and wows Jerry Buss with an offer.

Buss is clearly sick of Kobe and is supposedly a rash kind of guy, but I think he learned from the Shaq situation that you can't just auction off a top 25 player of all time to casual bidders unless you absolutely have a gun to your head. He'll have a gun to his head in another 12-18 months, but not now. I'd hold steady and bet that somebody will break sometime this season--like Chicago when they're looking at yet another 45 win season and 2nd round playoff exit, or Phoenix next summer after they once again fail to get past the Spurs.

Laker fan opinion on several proposed offers:

1. Josh Howard, Jason Terry and two #1s

No chance. No chance in hell. I love Josh Howard's game, but I think he's close to maxing out his potential and that leaves him in a jockstrap-carrying position vis a vis Kobe. Howard's a great #2, but he's a solid tier below the superstar level. Terry's a smart, solid player, but he's nothing special and the Lakers already have two promising young PGs in Javaris Crittenton and Jordan Farmar. And the two #1s would be in the 30s, those are almost useless.

2. Luol Deng and some combination of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and Andres Nocioni.

Now we're talking, but I still need to get Gordon (an elite scorer and game finisher) or Thomas (athletic freakshow/potential superstar), I'm not taking Deng, Hinrich and Nocioni/draft pick. Deng is already very, very good at age 22 and could keep getting better, but he also might top out as a 22/7 Josh Howard-type. Let's put this into perspective here; forget Kobe, Deng has a long way to go to get to the Shawn Marion level--and you're probably not going to win championships with Shawn Marion as your #1.

3. Amare Stoudemire and Raja Bell

Now we're really talking. Any trade that involves Amare Stoudemire is fine by me. I'd literally take Amare straight up. The key to trading Kobe is that you need to get another *true superstar* in return. Josh Howard or Luol Deng might turn into one, but Amare's already there. He's a 24-year-old center who's the 2nd most athletically gifted big man in the league (Dwight Howard) and has a skill set that calls to mind a young Karl Malone. The way Amare has turned into an absolutely money 15-foot shooter tells you everything you need to know about the guy--Nash or no, Amare can really, really hoop. He can shoot, he can finish on the break or pick-and-roll as well as anyone in the league, he can take the ball to the rack, he can get to the FT line (where he's turned himself into an 80% shooter), he rebounds, and he's becoming a better defensive player all the time. If I had to list the 10 guys I'd currently want to build a franchise around, Amare would be high on the list--in fact the only guys I'd definitely take over him are Wade, Lebron, Carmelo and Dwight Howard, with Bosh and Yao right there.

And I do honestly think this deal works for both teams. I think having an elite finisher like Kobe makes it more likely they get past San Antonio (plus it gives them a *real* defensive stopper, something they're obviously lacking after Ginobili once again showed up Raja Bell for the overrated hack he is). I'd put Boris Diaw back at center and go small all the time. They won 54 games with Diaw at center in 2005-2006, and now you have a bit of an upgrade with Kobe over Raja Bell--I think that team is one of the all time nightmare matchups in NBA history.

A friend suggests throwing Leandro Barbosa in the deal instead of Raja Bell with the Lakers giving up Andrew Bynum. I think it works on paper from a talent standpoint, but I don't think Bynum can play the D'Antoni system. His conditioning has improved a lot since he came into the league, but he's not going to run the floor 35 minutes a night like Amare, there's just no way. But at least he'd give them a better defensive matchup with Duncan, who also eats Phoenix alive.

So that's about it, I'm guessing Kobe doesn't get dealt to Dallas period, and not to Chicago unless Deng is involved. I just can't peg Phoenix's mindset--it seems like if Amare really were on the table, a deal would have been made by now. And it would be perfectly understandable if they wanted to give the current lineup one more shot. Without David Stern and his series-throwing decision to suspend Amare, who knows what would have happened last year.

The Lakers have months and months before it's panic time and they're forced to make a move, there's just no reason to rush anything. Sure, the Lakers have less bargaining power as we get closer to Kobe's opt-out date in the summer of 2009, but these teams still have to compete against each other (and how many of them are even close to having the cap room?) I'm hoping Buss just stands pat and waits for someone to get fed up with the status quo and finally decide to roll the dice. It'll happen.

I'm pretty sure.

SPORTS STUFF (sorry, I suck at titles)

2007-07-12T22:41:00.000-07:00

1. I haven't watched a pathetic amount of summer league ball, but I've watched some--well, I guess any amount is pretty pathetic. Anyway,I don't think you can draw too many conclusions about someone dominating against a bunch of rookies or crappy veterans hoping to grab a 12th man spot, but some guys stick out and just have the look of serious ballers. Anyone can have a good shooting game or get a few easy dunks in transition, but then you'll see someone make a particular move and it's like, wow, Matt Carroll or Smush Parker couldn't do that in their wet dreams.

I already loved Mike Conley, but he's even better than I remember. He just has that silky smooth game that great players have, everyone else on the floor looks like a spaz by comparison. Nice midrange game, unstoppable penetrator (his hesitation dribble is seriously as good as Tony Parker's, and his top end speed is pretty damn close too), great ballhandler, nice vision, and impressively always under control. Most guys in the league are trying to do too much, Conley just has this quiet confidence and poise.

He looks like the next great PG in the NBA, joining Chris Paul and Deron Williams. And we have OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose and Darrin Collison coming through the ranks, it's a pretty crazy time for point guard talent. A welcome change from the dearth of the last 10 years.

I still think Brandon Wright has more potential, but I don't think Memphis will end up regretting this pick. It's like Utah with Williams. Maybe (*maybe*) Chris Paul will end up better, but I'm pretty sure Utah's A-OK with Deron Williams.

Another guy that's looked pretty damn good is Yi, playing for the Chinese National Team. He's had some ups and downs, but I've seen him make some real nice moves. He's a lot more athletic than Darko, he's definitely more like a 3/4 rather than a 4/5. And he can really pull. I saw a 30 second stretch where he took his man off the dribble, stopped on dime and hit a pull-up 17 footer, and then the next time down the court came off a pick and hit a fallaway jumper from beyond the top of the key. You have to have a lot of confidence in your J to take that shot, and it was nothing but net. I'm thinking he could be a poor man's Dirk (or homeless guy's or whatever Bill Simmons always calls it; I don't really get that, doesn't "poor man's ____" already mean he's significantly worse than than whoever you're comparing him to? Otherwise you'd just say, "he's sorta like Dirk". Anyway.)

Hopefully he and his agent will continue to strong arm the Bucks and the Lakers will be on his very short list of desirable franchises. But they still don't have shit to offer (I mean, you're not going to give up Bynum for him in a million years), and some teams in Asian-friendly markets like Golden State have many tradeable pieces.

2. The guys on NFL Live pretty much agreed Ladanian Tomlinson is a better football player than Peyton Manning. I don't really get that--if you were holding a draft from scratch to win a super bowl this season, is there anyone in his right mind who wouldn't take Petyon or Tom Brady over LT? He's a great, great football player, but he simply isn't a quarterback.

It's like the Shaq vs. Kobe thing all over again. You know I'm a Kobophile, but I never understood when Laker fans said stuff like, "Shaq's more valuable, but Kobe's the best player in the league". What does that mean? I agree Kobe does cooler shit and is a hell of a lot more fun to watch, but c'mon, anyone can see Shaq was The Man on those championship teams and would have been a laughably obvious #1 choice in the draft-from-scratch question. Kobe was and is a truly great perimeter player, but Shaq was a dominant post guy and defensive presence in the lane (in the playoffs when he was motivated). Just like a great QB is more valuable than a great RB, a great C is more valuable than a great SG (some exceptions do apply, like MJ vs. Ewing, Olajuwon, Robinson, um, Shaq, Duncan, uh, Kareem, Wilt, Russell...)

KOBE THOUGHTS

2007-06-24T12:01:00.001-07:00

...Mark Heisler says in today's LA Times that Laker management isn't even considering trading Kobe, and I tend to believe him. He's really dialed in with the team, he usually knows what's up.

He said Chicago is offering Gordon, Thomas, Sefalosha and the #9 pick. You switch Deng in for Gordon and I'd absolutely leap at that deal, but Heisler says Chicago won't include him, period.

Personally I think that's pretty silly. I'm not saying they should necessarily do that particular deal with Deng in there, but it's stupid--if true--to just have him off the table, period, end of statement. He's a nice young player and had a great playoffs but he's still pretty far from being a superstar. The chances that he becomes a top 10 player in the league are like 20%, not like 80%. And if you have a guy who's 20%, that's not someone you flat-out won't consider trading. GMs have this weird emotional attachment to guys they've personally drafted, it would serve them better to just dispassionately look at their players as assets to be moved or utilized.

Speaking of players who've engendered a weird emotional attachment in their GM, I wonder if the Lakers have any chance in hell of making a Bynum-Odom for Garnett deal happen. Gut says no fucking way, but I think that's more because of sports GMs' conservatism in general and Kevin McHale's in particular than it being a bad trade for Minnesota. I doubt they're going to get any better offer, but I'll bet they just stand pat, waste Garnett's prime (at a hefty $23M a year) and--much like the Lakers--end up with a rebuilding movement that doesn't work because that one veteran superstar is too good to ever let the team be crappy enough to get high draft picks.

Why sports teams sit on their hands when there's a 100% chance of mediocrity--at best--is beyond me. I know they're worried about selling tickets, but the best way to do that is to be good; the next best way is to be mediocre but with some budding young stars giving the fans at least a glimmer of hope; the worst way to do that is to be mediocre and old with no chance whatsoever of turning things around quickly. I.e., Minnesota.

If I were Minnesota, I'd trade Garnett, period, for whatever the best deal is. You can't win with him in the immediate future (which is all he has left), but you have to pay him like he's winning championships for you left and right. And if that best deal was Odom-Bynum, I'd be perfectly happy with that. Odom's only 70% as good as Garnett, but he's 4 years younger and he makes $9M a year less. At 27, he can actually be part of a Randy Foye-Rashad McCants-#7 pick-Craig Davis (Andrew Bynum?) rebuilding movement. Garnett will be too old by the time these guys pan out. And you get to save $18M over the next 2 years while waiting for that to happen.

And they're not going to get any better prospect than Bynum, at least now that Garnett nixed the deal that would've netted them superstar-to-be Al Jefferson. If Bynum were in this draft , he'd be the hands-down #3 pick, it wouldn't even be close (he also wouldn't be close to being taken #1 or #2, but he'd definitely be #3 ahead of Horford, Jianlian, Conley, Wright, Brewer, Green, Noah, or anyone else).

I'm sure it won't happen right now, but when the T-Wolves are stinking it up next year and they're faced with the 100% chance of Garnett opting out next summer, they'll be forced to deal him for whatever they can get. They just can't take the chance he opts out and signs with someone for less money (he's already made literally hundreds of millions of dollars in his career), leaving them empty-handed. Hopefully Odom can come back healthy and Bynum can keep progressing nicely, and hopefully Phoenix or Chicago doesn't trump that offer--maybe, just maybe, we'll see the Kobe-KG era commence sometime around February 2008.

PORTLAND IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT

2007-06-22T12:37:00.000-07:00

So I really don't think the Lakers are going to trade Kobe, period, no matter how much he complains. Even with his opt-out after 2009, they still hold quite a few cards. He can opt-out all he wants, but unless he finds a team with $20M+ in cap space, he'll have to work out a sign-and-trade with the Lakers. And what if the Lakers just say 'no', then what? He either slinks back to the Lakers or he gives up $10 million a year to leave--is that the Kobe Bryant you know?

So who has $20M in cap space *and* is a realistic contender? Nobody--except maybe one team, if they play their cards right and get a little lucky.

Portland will have Oden, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge all still on their (absurd) rookie contracts, getting paid well below what their real value is. This gives them the ideal situation of possibly having a ton of cap room *and* having enough surrounding talent to be attractive to Kobe. They can make a run at Kobe (or Wade or Lebron or Carmelo or anyone else who's unhappy with their situation) and then re-sign their young guys for anything up to the max with their Bird rights.

If Oden's as good as I think he's going to be, and if Roy-Aldridge build on their excellent rookie seasons, Kobe-Roy-Aldridge-Oden is an easy championship contender. Especially with Duncan and Nash likely winding down their careers right around then.

The only problem is that the Blazers have two terrible contracts. Zach Randolph is a fine player, but he's not close to a max money guy. He makes $16M in 2009/2010 and $17M in 2010/2011. It'll be tough to get rid of him, but not impossible. He's probably the best low post scorer in the NBA in a league where even most of the championship contenders desperately need post scoring.

Then there's Darius Miles. Ugh. He doesn't make outrageous money--$9M a year in 08/09 and 09/10--but it's outrageous relative to his value, which is pretty close to zero. But they just might be able to ditch him in the summer of 2009 when he only has 1 year left on his deal, especially if he can manage to come back healthy and show some of the athleticism he used to have. I mean, if you're young, big and athletic, somebody will take a chance on you. I mean, there are teams that still want Kwame fucking *Brown*.

Even if they can't ditch these guys, they're still perfectly positioned to make a 2009 deal for Kobe or another superstar--good young talent (I haven't even mentioned Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack or the highly promising Sergio Rodriguez) and some high-salary guys with quickly expiring contracts (which you need in order to make the money work).

Bottom line, Portland's in damn good shape. There's no luck in all of sports like the luck of getting the #1 pick when a true franchise center is available.

BOXING vs. MMA

2007-05-26T16:39:00.000-07:00

For all the recent talk about MMA's ascension and boxing's death rattle, I was surprised to read today that the big Chuck Lidell fight (can't remember the other guy) is expected to get only like 1,000,000 PPV buys, and at only $35 a pop. For comparison, Mayweather-DLH did 2,000,000 at $55--so basically three times as much money. And the live gate numbers for previous big MMA fights were a fraction of what the Mayweather fight did, like $5,000,000 vs. $20,000,000.

I mean, I'm not saying that MMA isn't kicking ass or that boxing doesn't have serious problems--its fan base is almost as old as MLB's--but MMA apparently still has a long ways to go before it can match the draw of a big time boxing match.

And some of the problems with boxing could eventually be resolved. Once Don King dies--hopefully by being beaten to death by some ex-fighter he dicked over--and Bob Arum, who's also like 80, maybe it'll get easier to get big fights together. And maybe MMA's success will finally drive boxing to centralize its governing bodies and make a "championship" worth something. Like the NFL, NBA and MLB show, everyone gets complacent when everyone's making a ton of cash. But if MMA keeps taking a cut of the "guys whaling on each other" pie, that could bring about some quick and desperate action.

A big time heavyweight champ kicking ass and taking names wouldn't hurt either.

I do think MMA is here to stay and will keep getting bigger and bigger, probably eclipsing boxing at some point. The sweet science doesn't seem like it can hold up to the heavy action and true beatdowns in MMA with the hyperbrutal video game and slasher movie crowd.

But there's no reason boxing can't hang on, there's room enough for the both of them. The Mayweather numbers show there are still a ton of people who will pony up to see two great fighters go at it, and there are things boxing can do to try to amp up the action. Like Larry Merchant said before the Taylor-Spinks snoozefest, they need to reduce the size of the gloves and the size of the rings (some of 'em are like fucking polo fields), and stop rewarding fighters with decisions when they've spent the entire "fight" running away like Frenchmen.

Another possibility--and I can't understand why the market hasn't already dictated this--is to simply stop putting these ultradefensive fighters in big time fights. OK, Winky Wright, you're a technically great fighter, but tough shit--your fights are boring, so why is anyone giving you any money to do it? Completely healthy sports like the NFL can still maintain the delusion that they're not in a pure entertainment business, with their athletes no different than Tom Cruise or Kelly Clarkson. But boxing needs to face facts--your fighters are here to entertain, period, so if they don't do it, if they don't put on a good show, get rid of 'em and find someone who can. If I were a boxing promoter, I'd never put Wright in the ring again. Let him sit in a 400-square-foot apartment content with the fact that he was a great technical fighter, I'm giving the millions of dollars to guys who *entertain*.

You have to incent fighters to be aggressive, to force a brawl to happen. This can happen with the judges' scorecards, for sure--any round where one guy is constantly coming forward and forcing the action and the other guy is constantly on retreat and only throwing counterpunches should go to the aggressor, period. This is where boxing's lack of centralization hurts, if it had just one or a few organizations, they could put pressure on the judges to interpret the rules in a way where they favor that kind of boxing which is most pleasing to the fans.

But the promoters and broadcasters deserve more of the blame. Give money to entertaining fighters, don't give money to Winky Wright, Bernard Hopkins, Floyd Mayweather and other pussies who turn a goddamn fight into Dancing With The Stars. And when they bitch about it, tell 'em to either sac up and brawl or find another profession. I mean, this Wright-Hopkins fight that's coming up, what a fucking mess. Even the HBO commentators were not-so-subtly implying the fight would be godawful, with backhanded compliments like "this is a fight for *true* boxing fans to appreciate". Well if I'm the president of UFC, I say, "You keep the "true boxing fans", give me the guys who just want to see two men kick the shit out of each other."

So (awkwardly) turning this full circle, I applaud the MMA's success and I hope they keep on kicking butt. Competition is always good, and especially for something, like boxing, that's been a mess for years and desperately needs a wake-up call.

The funny thing about David Stern...

2007-05-17T13:31:00.000-07:00

...is that, look, he starts with the premise that the single most important objective of his office is to stop his black players from acting up. Why is that so important to Stern? Because in Stern's mind, that 'acting up' might piss off the largely white fan base of the NBA, especially the upper middle class & rich guys who are basically the only people who can afford to consistently go to games. So ultimately, he does what he does because he thinks the fan base wants it that way. He may be an autocratic asshole, and his actions may be pointless or obnoxious, but that motive--to please the league's fans--is more or less pure.

So now he makes the call on Amare and everyone--and I mean everyone, there's virtually no voice of dissent--is pissed off and thinks it was the most idiotic decision in the history of sports commissionership.

So what has he done here? Simply put, he's pissed off NBA fans because he's afraid of pissing off NBA fans. Sure, upper middle class and rich white guys don't like to see black guys fighting. They also don't like to see the fucking integrity of the game messed with. And they don't like to see world class sporting events decided by short fat guys in suits.

The latter two things happened. The first--black people fighting--did not. It was a nothing of an incident, something that's happened literally thousands of times in the game's history. This wasn't a tough choice between two unpleasant alternatives, this was a slam dunk in favor of ignoring the non-event and maintaining some semblance of fairness and integrity in the fucking game. It's an absolute no-brainer.

But here's what really pisses me off. Stern makes his call, absolutely enrages his league's fans, and then immediately goes hyperdefensive--the hallmark of someone who knows he's FLAT FUCKING WRONG. But instead of being a man and admitting he fucked up worse than any league has ever fucked up, he just ups his already prodigious bitchiness to new and dizzying heights.

Dave, Dave, stop being a little cunt for two seconds and take a step back--why do you do the things you do? Why does this whole NBA thing exist? Why are you so worried about fighting? It's all because of the fans, right? That's the only reason you do anything, because it's what (you think) the fans want you to do.

Well, pal, the fans have spoken. And they're right. By definition, they're right. Even when they're being stupid and unreasonable--e.g., getting their panties in a wad because a couple athletes throw a few half-hearted punches in the heat of battle--they're still right. They're the customer, they get to decide what they do and don't like about your product, and whatever they decide, on whatever basis--they're right.

So don't get defensive, don't get bitchy--you made your decision based, ultimately, on what you thought the fans would want. But you were just dead wrong about what side they would take in the "black people acting up" vs. "integrity of the game" question. You were as wrong as wrong can be. You couldn't get any wronger than the wrongness of this decision. You could be wrong a hundred times a day for a hundred years and only just begin to reach the level of wrong you've achieved here.

I know you can't admit that. I know insecure and stupid people like yourself and George W. Bush are completely incapable of ever admitting error. But you know you're wrong, and we know you're an imbecile. I guess that's going to have to be good enough for me. Until the next time it happens--and it will. People like Stern/Bush never, ever, ever change. To insecure autocratic asswipes like these clowns, admitting you're wrong and doing something different the next time the situation arises is basically an admission of having a small cock.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

1. Amare is really, really, really important to the Suns. They had *nothing* inside the entire game, and not having that inside presence really let the Spurs extend their D out to the three point line. The Suns got fewer good looks in that game than they do in most *halves* of games. Christ, it seemed like half their offensive possessions down the stretch ended up with Kurt Thomas taking a 15 foot jumper. KT played as tough as anyone has a right to expect, but you aren't going to go very far trying to ride on his back.

2. Tim Duncan might still be the most valuable player in the league. He was unreal on the defensive end, just completely shutting down everything the Suns did. Their defensive gameplan basically boiled down to:

A. Bowen on Nash like a dingo on a baby.

B. Everybody else play tight D on the perimeter and give up the drive.

C. Duncan takes care of everything else.

And he did. Some of those blocks were just sick, he was erasing shots out there. And that run in the second half where he scored like 5 straight times down the court, that changed the game. Once the Suns were forced to start doubling him, the Spurs got good looks the entire rest of the way. If they had gotten hot shooting the ball (instead of being ice cold most of the game), they probably would've run away with it.

3. Bruce Bowen is a brilliant defender, Raja Bell is just pretty good--definitely not a first-team all-defensive guy.

I always thought Bowen was a bit overrated, but I think that's because Kobe doesn't seem to have much trouble with him. But Kobe always dominates smallish defenders, the longer guys like Marion and Prince are the ones he sometimes struggles with. But what Bowen has been doing to Nash in this series has completely opened my eyes. Nash is still putting up decent numbers and making big plays--no one can shut down a player as great as him--but man, Bowen is really making him work out there. I can't believe how many turnovers he's forced Nash into.

Raja Bell, on the other hand, couldn't do shit against Ginobili in the second half when the Suns needed just a couple key stops. How many goddamn times did he go under the screen & let Manu have a free look at a 3? That's *terrible* defense. It's one thing for Barbosa to struggle with Ginobili--as he did--but when they switch Mr. First Team All-Defensive over there, I expect him to make a difference. He didn't, and Ginobili won the game for them.

I KNEW THE LAKERS WERE DONE FOR...

2007-05-03T00:17:00.000-07:00

...when Kurt Thomas hit those fucking shots in the first quarter. It's like, shit, don't we have enough to worry about with Nash-Amare-Marion-Barbosa, now we have the biggest scrub on the team knocking down 12 footers like he's the fucking Mailman?

That was the end of Thomas's contribution to the game, but the final boxscore tells the tale--LA shut down Nash completely, Amare had a so-so game (and would've sucked if the refs didn't keep bailing out his wild shit), Barbosa was somewhat limited (but deadly when it counted, as always against the Lakers), Marion had a nice game, but you figure you hold 'em down if only 1 out of those 4 guys has a great game--and yet Phoenix still goes for 120.

Diaw, Thomas, Bell, and James Jones all play great, Kobe has a mediocre game to offset Odom's heroics, the Lakers' scrubs redefine uselessness, and it's a comfortable win for the Suns.

Farmar and Odom led the Lakers with 2 assists. 3 other guys had 1. Still, they shot .478 from the floor and scored 110, offense wasn't really the problem. It's that nobody on the team can D up Nash, nobody can D up Barbosa (which makes them like every other team in the league), nobody can D up Amare. So they basically need to add 3 defensive superstars, and *maybe* they can play with the Suns.

Until then...

I gotta tell you, if they deal Andrew Bynum for Garnett this offseason, I won't be disappointed. I'm starting to shift over to the "Kobe has only so many good years left..." camp.

I think Bynum is oozing with potential, but he still has a long, long, long ways to go, and it'll all come down to whether he has the superstar mentality. A dominating physical specimen like Shaq can have way less of a competitive drive than freaks like MJ/Bird/Kobe and still be one of the 10 greatest players of all time--that's not Bynum. He's got some serious physical gifts, but nowhere near Shaq's level. If he's not a very hard worker, if he doesn't strongly develop his skills, he won't be a superstar, period. And it's hard to gamble on a 19-year-old multi-multi-millionaire living in Los Angeles being a "very hard worker". I know *I* wouldn't be in his situation.

Give me Garnett and I still don't think we're talking about a slam dunk championship caliber team, but it's a hell of a lot closer than what they'd be for the next 2-3 years while waiting for Big Andrew to grow up. I don't know, maybe that is a championship type team after all--especially with Nash about to hit the downside of his career. I mean, who knows what happens when you put together two hypercompetitive guys like Kobe and KG, with Odom playing a more comfortable role as third fiddle rather than Pippen to Kobe's MJ.

But I'm not sure how the money works out without Odom being involved. Kwame is attractive, being in the last year of his contract (and for NO OTHER REASON), but he makes half of what KG makes. Plus the Lakers would probably rather wait a year and see if KG will opt out of the last year of his deal and be a true free agent--right when the Lakers may have cap space. KG would have to take a pay cut, but he's made a boatload of cash already in his career (especially since he's trying to out-whore Snoop and Peyton in the TV commercial game), he may well be ready to leave some money on the table to join a contender.

I don't know. I just hope the Lakers' braintrust doesn't panic and do something stupid. Giving up one of the most promising young big men in the league for a true star with several years of prime left like KG is one thing; dealing him for a dinged up 34-year-old on the decline like Jason Kidd is another altogether. That's a panic move, and yet I hear tons of Laker fans pushing for this to happen. I understand their impatience--I too feel like Kobe's prime is being wasted--but impatience isn't reason enough to throw away the future on something that still won't get the Lakers to the next level.

DID GOLDEN STATE SHOOT ITS LOAD?

2007-05-01T23:51:00.000-07:00

They had it. They motherfucking *had it*. So now they have two more chances, including one in front of the most raucous crowd the NBA's seen in years, but when do you see a major underdog have it *right in their hands*, blow it, and then still triumph in the end? It seems like when the favorite steals a game, they always end up taking the series.

Still, if Dallas is now favored to win the series (and I'm sure they are), I might bet Golden State. I certainly didn't see anything today physically that makes me think Dallas has figured out how to consistently beat these guys.

Not that I have anything against Dallas, mind you, I'd absolutely love to see a Dallas-Phoenix conference finals, but how can you not root for Golden State? Talk about some wildly entertaining basketball. Brilliant offense--the dumbasses who keep acting like this is a run-and-chuck type of offense don't know what the hell they're talking about; Golden State hasn't taken 50 bad shots in this entire series and they've basically put on a clinic in ball movement.

And they've played surprisingly solid defense (up until tonight). Sure they've given up points, but only because they give Dallas so many possessions. Their man defense has been pretty damn stifling, Dallas is taking way more contested shots than GS is.

And the thing that gets me is that GS can hold its own on the boards. Other teams have tried this same philosophy, go small and kill the other team with your quickness while daring them to beat you with their size--especially when they're not used to doing that (how many times has Dallas posted up Nowitzki on his 6'7 defenders, like, 4?) But those teams always blow it when the opponent completely controls the boards on both ends. Dallas is a big team, but it seems like GS is pretty even in rebounding for the series. They're small, but this might be the most athletic 8 man rotation in NBA history. And tough as goddamn nails. Barnes and Pietrus are warriors out there, everything Dirk's not--up until the last 5 minutes of this game where Dirk came up large and saved himself from being the biggest goat in the NBA playoffs since Charles fucking Smith.

Baron is just a freak. He's having an all-timer series. It makes you wonder what his career would have been like if he'd never gotten hurt; fuck, we'd probably be talking about him being neck and neck with Nash, honest to god. He never would have been the shooter Nash is, but he'd have been like a better ballhandling/passing Wade, a guy who's unstoppable going to the basket and a crazy-good finisher--*and* who can shoot well enough to make you play him honest. Plus he's a brilliant ball-defender, probably the best in the league. He's wreaking havoc all over the court--I can't believe his energy level, not many players can go that hard for that many minutes a night consistently. And his teammates have been only slightly less frenetic.

I cannot wait for game six. I think the same thing everyone else does, game six is the series; if Golden State blows it with that humongous home court advantage, it's over. If it comes to it, game 7 will be like a 20 point blowout, mark it down. But I think game six is 50/50, a true tossup. I'll tell ya this, Dallas isn't going to win with Dirk taking a snooze for 43 minutes. WTF was going on with him? Yes, you're double teamed. Just like Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Kobe, Vince, T-Mac, Lebron, Wade, BARON DAVIS in this series, and every other great player. Figure it out. When all you can really do is score, you better figure out a way to put the ball in the hole, double team or no.

And you know what? Half the time when he was passing within a millisecond of getting the ball, the double hadn't even come yet! Shoot the goddamn ball! You're 7 feet, your defender is 6'6...so....what's the problem? Hoist it up, baby. Fuck, for all Kobe's faults, I'll take a guy who doesn't run away and hide when his team needs him. I've seen Lebron and Vince and other sleepwalkers do that in regular season games, but I've damn well never seen a player as great as Dirk do that in the playoffs. Up until those last 5 minutes, he had taken TWO SHOTS in the second half. When he finally shoots, he puts up two 3-point daggers. Makes no sense. Are you a superstar, or aren't you? Game six will tell us a lot.

I'd like to give a prediction, but I just have no goddamn idea what's going to happen. None. You figure one of these games GS is just going to go ice cold, but not when 90% of the shots they take are either wide open jumpers or strong takes to the basket. One factor that could really kill them is officiating. They've thrived on pretty much let'em play type of games (defensively, that is; there have been a ton of bizarre offensive fouls called in this and every other playoff series this year, which has resulted in more flops than a Brazil-Italy soccer game.) But if the game gets called tight, GS will have to either relax its all-out pressure defense or suffer through some major foul trouble with a thin rotation. Hopefully the crowd can influence the game and keep it at the same standard that's been in play the rest of the series.

But I just keep getting the nagging feeling that Dallas will continue to have no answer for Golden State's freakish athleticism. I mean, seriously, has there *ever* been a more athletic group in the NBA than Davis-Ellis-Richardson-Jackson-Barnes-Pietrus-Harrington-Biedrins? Especially those first six, they're all 6'4-6'8, all quick as hell, all can jump out of the gym--*and* they're all pretty damn skilled on top of it. What a fun team to watch.

I guess I'll call Dallas with a miracle win--again, I don't know if this makes logical sense, but we've all seen it a million times where the underdog shoots its load and can't recover--but I'll be rooting like hell for Golden State, now tied with Phoenix as my second favorite team in the NBA. A conference finals between GS and Phoenix would just be game after game of orgiastic basketball joy. But let's not think ahead, Warriors, we got some work to do Friday.

CHILD OF THE CORN

2007-04-14T01:33:00.000-07:00

There's a possible fly in the ointment of my plan to never have children...my wife is visiting her family in Indiana this weekend to see her new nephew for the first time (not her brother's kid, her cousin's--but she's super tight with her cousin, they're like sisters).

She's been making a few alarming comments lately about kids, but I've chalked it up to just female sentimentality (and maybe a bit of sisterly rivalry) over the new baby--I'm still 95% confident she doesn't want to have kids, but that's down from 99% before her cousin got herself knocked up.

This weekend can go two ways. The obvious--but not likely, I'm gambling--is that she holds the baby in her arms for the first time and falls in love with the idea of being a mommy, throwing away years of rational thought that's led her to the conclusion that she never wants to have kids. I fully acknowledge that's a possibility.

But the other, this is what I'm pinning my hopes on--the other possibility is that she sees the enormous amount of work and sacrifice that goes into caring for a little shitting & crying machine, and she multiplies that in her head by 52 weeks and years and years and years (OK, it'll learn to stop shitting itself, but the work and sacrifice obviously never stops--my wife is in all seriousness a very selfish woman, it's one of the many things I love about her).

I'm kind of gambling here by not going with her. If I were there, I could subtly manage the situation to my advantage, making seemingly offhand comments like,

"Man, when does Katie *ever* sleep?" (my wife likes her sleep...a lot).

Or "I guess you guys won't be doing any world traveling any time soon." (Katie & her husband travel frequently, and my wife and I love to travel basically more than anything else in the world).

Or "So it's basically 5 more years of this before he even goes to school?"

Or "So you haven't seen your friends in like 6 months, and no plans on the horizon?"

Or "Wow, they're going to have to really bite the bullet on luxury items like clothes and makeup and shoes and..."

Shit like that.

Why didn't I go? Um, did I mention they live in Indiana? Nuff said. It's this complete pissant suburb of Indianapolis, supposedly an upper middle class area; the houses are big and nice and everything, they'd be million dollar houses here--but man, let's just say you wouldn't be confusing it with Beverly Hills any time soon. It's, uh, sparse. I mean, I can see how other people want to live there, it's quiet and peaceful and cheap as hell to buy a house.

But I'm personally very uncomfortable in wide open spaces, I like...*density*. I like cities. I like hustle and bustle. But to each his own. Point is, there's absolutely nothing to do there other than fawn over the shit/cry machine and get my ear talked off by the World's Dullest Man (Katie's husband, with whom I get left alone frequently when we visit--a bigger negative to visiting than even the lameness of the state of Indiana itself).

So I decided to stay here, and just hope that the overwhelming amount of work, disruption to routine, and just general unpleasantness that is "caring for a baby" will trump that biological imperative she feels to create one of these bundles of unimaginable cuteness for herself.

I'm positive the forces of logic will win out in the end.

Well--very, very sure, at the least.

Fuck, maybe I should've gone.

ODEN V. DURANT

2007-04-02T22:14:00.000-07:00

First a little background. I started out a Greg Oden guy, on the grounds that a great center is always more valuable than a great forward. But when Kevin Durant lit the college basketball world on fire and Oden struggled a bit coming back from injury, I switched over to the Durant bandwagon--he just looked like the closest thing you'll ever find to a can't-miss superstar.

But now all the games have been played, all the data is in, we've seen everything we're going to see until these guys suit up for the Grizzlies and Celtics next fall...and my final verdict? I've come full circle; I'd take Oden #1.

It's nothing Durant did or didn't do, I still think there's a 100% chance he'll be a superstar in the NBA. He's an extremely athletic 6'10 guy with long arms who can handle the ball, shoot like Dirk Nowitzki, rebound in traffic, and defend a variety of positions. He's better at this stage than Carmelo Anthony was in 2003.

But Oden really showed me something in the tournament--and that something was "explosive athleticism". Durant's a great athlete; Oden's a FREAK. Honestly, the only person I can think of in the last 20 years of college basketball who was anything like Oden is the young Shaq, someone with the size of a legit NBA center with that crazy combination of strength, quickness and hops.

Oden was a man among boys out there last night (admittedly aided by the biggest case of "make-up" officiating in the history of sports; the officials were clearly told to lay off Oden to make up for the rook job he got in the semfinals. He did anything he wanted all game long.) And this wasn't a bunch of goofy white guys and undersized PFs he was dominating, it was two lottery-pick-level legit NBA big men in Al Horford and Joakim Noah, and another off the bench that's a borderline NBA guy in Chris Richard. When Oden got the ball within 3 feet of the basket, it was a dunk, period. The only other guy who could do that in recent memory was Shaq. And it wasn't just the power dunking, Oden absolutely dominated the paint on D. He *erased* Noah, Horford had *nothing* against Oden in the post (but to his credit, found a way to score by hitting foul line jumpers and taking his man off the dribble on the wing). If Brewer, Green and Humphrey aren't hot from the perimeter, we'd likely be talking about how Oden singlehandedly won the game right now.

Sometimes you see someone in college sports, and they're so much bigger, so much stronger, so much faster, just so much more athletic than everyone else, there's no way they won't succeed at the next level. Shaq was one of those guys. Reggie Bush was one of those guys. Greg Oden is one of those guys.

That dunk attempt he had in the Georgetown game, where he was coming down on the fast break, got the ball at the free throw line, and just *exloded* over a guy to the rim...my god. He didn't get the dunk because of the dude in the lane blocking his path, but it was unreal athleticism. I was just sitting there thinking, there's only one big man in the NBA who could've done that, and that's Amare--and Greg Oden is *way* bigger than Amare. He's got a legit center's body with Amare's athleticism, that's one hell of a combination to start with.

And it's not like he's this raw project, like he's without skills. True, his all-around game needs a lot of improvement before he reaches the Ewing/Hakeem/Shaq level of superstardom, but he has a lot to work with already. His footwork has improved in leaps and bounds throughout the season, he has a variety of reliable post moves, and a nice little touch around the rim. In the G-Town game, he had a beautiful hook and a Duncanesque shot off the glass from 7 feet. He's got outstanding hands, he'll be a 12-board guy right off the bat, and he's the greatest defensive force to come out of college since Tim Duncan.

Like I said, I still think there's pretty close to a 100% chance Kevin Durant ends up being a superstar in the NBA. But I now think the same of Oden. He's just too good. He's too big, too athletic, too quick, and just too damned talented to miss. He supposedly has a real good head on his shoulders too--he's just the whole package.

So it comes back to my original question, would you rather have a superstar center or a superstar combo forward? I'm not saying it's a no-brainer, there are obviously shades of gray all over the place here. Who would you rather have, Larry Bird or Patrick Ewing? Yes, Durant probably won't be the next Bird, but Oden probably won't be the next Ewing either; those were 2 of the greatest players of all time. But sometimes a truly elite non-center is more valuable than a truly elite center.

But on the other hand, if you look at the top 25 or 50 players of all time, I think you'll find that centers are highly disproportionately represented. It's a big man's game, and always will be. If you have to gamble, if you have to go one way or the other, then I think history suggests it makes sense to go with the superstar center.

Now what'll be interesting is if Memphis gets the first pick. They already have an elite center in Gasol--but he's a little on the soft side. Do you take Oden and make Gasol a 4? I don't know if that'll work, Gasol's offensive game is largely old school low post. But if you put *Durant* with Gasol, FUCK, you really have something there. How the hell do you match up with those two guys?! They seem like a perfect complement. But then they might take Oden and move Gasol to Chicago (after the Bulls lose badly in the second round and finally figure out they should have made the move for Gasol long ago).

Now let's say it's the Celtics. Do you take Oden and move Al Jefferson to PF? I think you do. It reduces Jefferson's value a bit, since he's an around-the-basket kind of guy too, but FUCK, you really have something there: that's one hell of a defensive wall to throw at teams, plus you'll just completely dominate the glass. Twin towers for the new century.

IN PRAISE OF KOBE

2007-03-23T02:12:00.000-07:00

So Kobe has put up 65-50-60 in his last three games, I think that's enough to move my lazy ass to wax poetic about it.

To put this into perspective, 4 guys have had 3 consecutive games with 50+: Elgin, MJ and Kobe have done it once. Wilt did it 10 times.

With these 2 60-point games, Kobe now has 4 in his career, putting him into a tie for second all-time with MJ. Wilt had 32.

Yes, Wilt was fucking awesome.

But hey, different times, different players. What Kobe has done is astonishing. I don't think he's played this well since the 2001 playoff run when he put up 29/7/6 and along with Shaq provided the best 1-2 punch the NBA has ever seen (yes, better than Magic-Kareem, better than Bird-McHale, better than West-Baylor, better than Russell-Havlicek).

Here's the most amazing thing about this stretch of games: his discipline, his restraint. Imagine what it would be like to be the best player in the league, and then imagine what it would be like to be the best player in the league in the hottest stretch of your entire career. You'd want to take every damn shot every time down the floor (wait, I want to do that anyway--and I suck).

I mean, this isn't Wilt or Kareem or Shaq, someone dependent on his teammates getting him the ball--this is someone who can create any shot he wants at any time. So the problem for a guy with this talent level and in the midst of this white-hot stretch is this: how do you decide which shots to take and which not to take when you feel (justifiedly so) that you can make anything you throw up?

And having watched all three games, I can tell you that Kobe's judgment has been remarkable. Astonishing. Unprecedented. Don't get me wrong, he's taken a ton of shots--111 in 3 games--but only a few times have I felt like he was really forcing something. I don't know how you can score 175 points in 3 games and look like you're letting the game come to you, like you're playing within the constraints of team basketball, like you're looking to set your teammates up when the shot you want isn't available--but Kobe's managing to do it.

And another amazing thing about this stretch is that Kobe hasn't been *that* hot shooting the ball from outside. I mean, he fucking ripped Portland, a game I'd put right up there with the 81-pointer and the "singlehandledly-outscoring-Dallas-through-3-quarters" game (the single greatest athletic performance I've ever personally witnessed), but the last two games he's shot the ball like he normally does--good, but not Ray Allen, which means he had to pull out the entire arsenal to get his points. I mean, it's been a clinic in how to put the ball in the basket. He's hit threes, he's hit midrange pull-up jumpers, he's gotten to the foul line (although none of the games were called particularly close--he earned his 175 points), he's gotten to the rim, he's thrown down ridiculous dunks, he's posted people up, he's gotten steals & breakaway buckets...it's like watching a highlight reel of Kobe's entire skill set for three straight games.

And lastly, the team has absolutely *needed* every point he's scored. They've won the 3 games by 2, 7 and 5 (in OT). Kobe has scored all these points because it was the most likely way for the Lakers to win the game, period. I think some (not all) of the criticism of Kobe's egotism and selfishness is justified, but this has been the ultimate performance within the confines of team basketball, in the sense that he did exactly what needed to be done in order to give his team the best shot of winning.

What he's done here is incredible, it's insane, it's historic. This--for me--is what pro sports is all about: entertainment. If you know me in real life or have read my posts on the boards, you know I use this phrase too much, but I honestly do feel privileged to have witnessed this. I'd rather have seen this than watch the Lakers reel off 20 wins in a row (now I'd rather they win the championship than see Kobe pull this off, but that's obviously different--winning championships is pretty goddamn entertaining too).

I still don't think the Lakers have a prayer in hell of running the gauntlet in the West--they needed Kobe to channel Elgin in order to squeak past three pretty bad teams--but I can tell you this much: NOBODY wants a piece of the Lakers in the playoffs. Nobody. Not San Antonio, not Phoenix, not even Dallas. If everyone on the Lakers is healthy and Kobe is hot (not even 175-points-in-3-games-hot, just normally hot), they can play with anyone, just like they played with Phoenix last year.

In fact--what the fuck--I'm going to call it right now: if the Lakers are healthy & they play San Antonio in the first round, as they're currently slated to do, they're pulling the upset. I know that sounds crazy with the Spurs red-hot and the Lakers completely floundering before Kobe started going off, but I just have a gut feeling here. LA matches up with them really well and I think Kobe outlasts Duncan in a hard-fought 6-7 game series.

But then I think they get handled by Phoenix or slaughtered by Dallas. Just a bad/horrible matchup, respectively.

2009, baby!

(Speaking of which, watch out for Memphis down the road. If they get Kevin Durant (they currently have a 9-game lead on the #1 slot in the lottery) to go along with Pau Gasol, Hakim Warrick, Rudy Gay and Mike Miller--that's a *real* nice core group of players. Real nice. Just need a competent pass-first PG to throw in there (e.g., Brevin Knight), and that's potentially a monster of a team. If they get the #1 pick, I think they'd be insane to trade Gasol. Actually, I think they'd be insane to trade him, period, and I think the Bulls were insane *not* to trade for him. He's a 20 & 10 26-year-old center who blocks shots, those guys don't exactly grow on trees. Ben Gordon has virtually no chance of ever being as valuable as Pau Gasol is right now--and I love Ben Gordon. Huge mistake for the Bulls.)

DIRK FOR MVP

2007-03-14T10:48:00.000-07:00

The MVP Race

With Lebron sleepwalking through half the season, Wade getting injured, and the Lakers going into a complete tailspin, the MVP has become a two-man race between Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash. It's close. It's very close. But I think the nod has to go to Dirk here.

Phoenix is having an amazing season, but Dallas is doing something historic. This could be a 70 win team, for crying out loud. After an 0-4 start, they're an astonishing 52-6--that's just completely insane. Let's put this into perspective. There are currently 6 teams with a winning road record, which tells you how tough it is to consistently win on the road in the NBA. Well, Dallas' 22-7 road record is better than the home record of 27 of the other 29 teams in the league. Only Phoenix and Utah have a better record at home than Dallas does on the road--and neither of them are even close to Dallas's home record of 30-3. What Dallas is doing is even more impressive when you consider that 2/3rds of their games come against their own far superior conference (the West's winning percentage vs. the East is .570, a gigantic disparity--only 8 teams in the league have a .570+ winning percentage).

This isn't to slight what Phoenix has accomplished. Amazingly they're right there with Dallas, just 3.5 games behind. If you take out the 2 wins and 4 losses they ran up when Steve Nash was hurt, they've been at a pace that would put them at 68 wins for the year--which would make them one of the greatest 2nd best teams in league history.

But even taking out the Nash-less games, they're still 47-10, behind Dallas' 52-10 (and it's not like Dallas has been injury-free, they've lost #2 guy Josh Howard for 10 games, as well as Jerry Stackhouse, Devean George and Austin Croshere for 10+ games each). Bottom line: as good as Phoenix has been, Dallas has been better.

Now that's not the end-all of the MVP argument, of course, but "best player on the best team" is always a good place to start. Where I think Dirk really earns the nod is that, in my opinion, his supporting cast is worse than Nash's. This is pretty difficult, it's tough to match up guy-for-guy in a team sport like basketball--but I'm going to anyway.

Shawn Marion and Josh Howard are pretty much a wash, maybe Marion gets a slight nod. Jason Terry and Devin Harris get the slight nod over Raja Bell and the rapidly-arriving Leandro Barbosa (more on him later). The Mavs' scrubs are definitely much better than Phoenix's, the Mavs are a far deeper team with Stackhouse, George, Croshere and defensive specialists Greg Buckner and Desagana Diop vs. James Jones, Kurt Thomas, and a bunch of guys who don't even play (Jalen Rose, Jumaine Jones, Marcus Banks). So maybe Dallas is a bit ahead so far. But we have one comparison left, the starting centers: Amare vs. Erick Dampier. Um, yeah. I think that one goes to Phoenix by a hair. It's really that simple, their supporting casts are pretty similar, with the exception that Nash has one more top 15 player on his roster than Dirk does. But Dirk's team is better.

I know, I know, it's really not that simple. Basketball is a team game, and Dallas more than anyone really plays like a team--it's hard especially to compare defensive-minded guys to offensive-minded. But can you at least give me that the surrounding talent on the two teams is close enough that Dallas' superior record is a solid point in Dirk's favor? Yeah, I thought so bitch.

No, Dirk doesn't make his teammates better the way Steve Nash does--all he does is make his team better, and that's what counts. Michael Jordan, contrary to popular myth that makes him the greatest there ever was in every aspect of basketball, wasn't a great distributor. Sure he got a lot of assists, but is it so hard to kick out to a wide open John Paxson when you're being triple teamed? What Jordan had--and what Kobe doesn't--is excellent *judgement*. His court vision was nothing special, but he had outstanding discretion as to when to force a shot and when to give the ball up to a teammate. So he made his teammates better in the way all great players make their teammates better--by being fucking awesome and taking the other team's focus away from them. But he absolutely did not make his teammates better the way a Nash or Magic does/did. All he did was make his *team* really, really, really good--and last time I checked, that's what they give you trophies for.

The Comers

As typically starts happening this time of year, a handful of young players are starting to bust out.

First let's start with Leandro Barbosa, one of the 10 most difficult players to guard in the NBA. In 11 games since they all-star break, Barbosa is averaging 20.6 ppg on .524 shooting. But what's most impressive is that he's shooting .556 from three on 6.6 attempts per game, bringing his season 3PT FG% to .439. This is after last year's .444. When you're literally one of the fastest players in league history, a great finisher at the rim, *and* a money 3-point shooter, that makes you a matchup nightmare. Just this week I watched him absolutely tear apart one of the best defensive teams in the league in Houston, going for 32 on 12-18 shooting. In the first part of the game, he was blowing by people to the basket. When they played for the drive, he sank 5 of 6 threes. By the second half, they were doubling Barbosa every time he got the ball--when you're going against a team with Amare, Nash and Marion and you're forced to double *someone else*, you're in serious trouble.

Another guy on fire is Andre Iguodala. He's been coming on ever since Iverson's departure, but the last couple weeks have really been strong for him--in the 11 games since the break, Iguodala is averaging 21/6/6, with 2.5 steals and a .475 FG%. In 6 games in March, he's bumped his PPG up to 24.5. This guy's a really good all-around player, with his skill beginning to match his high-end athleticism. The only problem is that he's played so well, he's taking Philly out of the Durant/Oden sweepstakes. The 76ers are now 9 games ahead of Memphis and 6.5 ahead of Boston (with Milwaukee and Charlotte also a couple games behind the Sixers).

Speaking of Boston, Al Jefferson has been huge for them lately. Post-break, he's putting up a 20 & 13 spot with a steal and almost 2 blocks per game, along with a .553 FG%. Jefferson just turned 22 in January--this dude's a beast. If Boston manages to get into that bottom 2 (again, difficult with Jefferson playing so well), they'll be in fantastic shape for the future.

A couple of rookies are giving Portland some hope as well--Brandon Roy is averaging 18/4/6 post-break and is shooting over .500 from both the floor and from 3, and LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 14 & 7 with 2 blocks. Looks like two very nice draft picks for them, along with longer-term prospect Sergio Rodriguez who's shown flashes of brilliance.

Finally, moving from up-and-comers to not-yet-as-decrepit-as-you-might-have-thought, I have to give props to Shaq. What he's doing for Miami in the wake of Wade's injury is nothing short of amazing. I predicted here that they'd be a total disaster, but I didn't count on Shaq channeling his 2001 self. In 11 post-break games, he's averaging 20/10/3 on .630 shooting in just 29 minutes per game. Miami is 8-3 in those games, and is currently on a 7 game winning streak that's included wins against Eastern Conference leaders Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Washington (twice), as well as Western powerhouse Utah. Shaq has pretty much overpowered everyone in his path--when he's in the game, the other team's defensive gameplan just has to change completely. If you don't double him, he'll score, it's that simple. With his excellent post passing, that means everyone on the team is getting wide open looks all game. In other words, he's making the team better the same way Michael Jordan made his teams better. I still don't think Miami can make it to the Finals without Wade--no way does Shaq not wear down over a couple long series--but at least Shaq's allowed them to get in good position while Wade (hopefully!) recovers.

FREE THROW FEST

2007-02-16T00:47:00.000-08:00

There were 97 free throw attempts in the Lakers-Cavs game tonight. No, it didn't go into octuple overtime, just your regular 48 minute game. There were 61 fouls, which works out to 1 foul for every 47 seconds of playing time. Now I like a tighly called game, but that's just ridiculous.

It wasn't the reason the Lakers lost--that would be Lebron waking up from his month-long slumber and looking like the old active/spectacular Lebron (seriously, it was night and day watching how hyped up he was, the combo of being in the big city, on national TV with no other competing games, and going up against Kobe. 9 times out of 10, when he caught the ball he immediately when into an aggressive move toward the rim. It really confirms what I've been saying the last few weeks about him laying down on the job. It's not that he *can't* do it, he just chooses not to on more nights than most other superstars.)

The bizarre calls were pretty even both ways; some of the calls the Lakers got, I was just shaking my head in wonder. And then uber-scrub Eric Snow would bash into Kobe completely out of control and go to the line and I'd also shake my head in wonder--while letting out a string of profanity. I wonder when was the last time Eric Snow had double digit FTAs--not in this millenium, I'll bet. Possibly not in this lifetime.

That makes 5 straight losses for the Lakers, officially moving them out of the ranks of the lesser championship contenders. They'll be a lot better once Luke Walton and especially Kwame come back--playing Turiaf at center is just disastrous, as his game-costing inability to rebound a fucking missed free throw in the last 10 seconds showed--but they just can't hang with the West's top teams. They played over their heads earlier in the year, they're underachieving now, the reality is somewhere in the middle--48-52 win team that gets bounced in the first or second round of the playoffs.

2009, baby!

Back to the officiating--it's funny how refs will get. You can see a crew call a game *super tight*, blowing the whistle on virtually every drive to the basket, and then the next night the very same crew will call a game normally, or even very loose. Now sometimes a crew sees that a game is getting "chippy", as the announcer will inevitably say, and tighten up to make sure the game doesn't get out of hand, but that's not what I'm talking about. I mean that they'll just literally change their standards of what constitutes a foul from game to game--I mean, it's so clearly true, I think NBA officials would even generally agree with that observation. And they'll change those standards to a *wild* degree. Sometimes you go to the rim, get utterly hacked, and can't buy a call, the next night nobody's allowed to look in your direction (for Bird and Jordan, that was "every night").

That's what frustrates people about NBA officiating. It's a hard gig, no doubt, but there's no excuse for the lack of consistency with these assclowns. Decide what level of contact constitutes a foul and call it that way *every single game*. There can be variations from call-to-call--it would be impossible for there not to be--but not game-to-game variations in the fucking philosophy behind your officiating.

ALL-STAR WEEKEND

I guess I'm the only person left who gets excited about the dunk and 3-point contest. I'm not sure what other lame shit they have planned; I guess the rookie-sophomore game is tonight, that can be occasionally entertaining. I'd guess the sophs (with Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Monta Ellis, Danny Granger, Andrew Bynum, etc.) would roll over the crappy rookie class (Brandon Roy, Adam Morrison, Andrea Bargnani, Rudy Gay, etc.), but let's be honest, these guys are young, rich and in Las Vegas, they couldn't possibly give less of a shit about this game. And neither do I, really--these kinds of games are only fun to watch when the court is populated with super-athletes doing crazy stuff. The soph class is very good, but not really many Wades or Lebrons. I mean, nobody wants to see Deron Williams and Danny Granger run a perfectly executed pick-and-roll, or Chris Paul use a screen to set up a clean foul-line jumper. Ellis will probably shine, he's a great open court player. Maybe Randy Foye will show he can hoop a little.

D-LEAGUE

There's a D-League all-star game on Saturday night (only on the NBA Network, I believe (I realize I'm the laziest blogger around. I'm not going to do anything about it, but I think it's fair to acknowledge it)). That might be pretty interesting. It'd be better if Amir Johnson were in it, but the Pistons inexplicably called him up to let him rot on the bench instead of getting PT at a surprisingly solid level of play in the D-League. I don't know, maybe they feel a player gets way better coaching in the majors.

Anyway, there are some names you might recognize from college ball in the game--Loren Woods, BJ Elder, Luke Schenscher, Alan Anderson, Randy Livingston (yup, still hanging around trying to snag the last spot on an NBA bench; you gotta admire the hell out of this guy for his persistence), Dijon Thompson, Rick Rickert, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, and Peter John Ramos from the Puerto Rican national team that always gives us fits. I don't know, I'll give it a look and see if it's any good.

DUNK CONTEST

Man, there are a lot of dunkers I'd rather see than Nate Robinson. But he's got something to prove after last year's complete debacle, I guess we'll see what he's got. He ain't having the title handed over to him on the "aww, he's so little, isn't that cute!" criteria *this* year, not with MJ, Nique, Dr. J, Vince and Kobe as the judges (I think I speak for everyone when I say I'd much rather see a dunk contest with *those* guys. I'll bet the Doctor can still throw down).

Gerald Green supposedly has some crazy shit planned, I'm pretty excited about that. He's a freak show with top 1% athleticism in the league. Fellow freak Tyrus Thomas will probably come strong after getting ripped apart for his comments (he said something along the lines of not giving a shit about the dunk contest and only planning to show up to get the "free money"). Dwight Howard is kinda interesting. He's obviously powerful as hell, but that's not what this is about--you have to get up high enough to do in-air acrobatics, and most big men don't have the hang time to do that. Shawn Kemp (pre-obesity) is the only real exception I can think of--we'll see if the Man-Child can hang in Kemp's class.

THREE POINT SHOOTOUT

This should be pretty cool, there's a lot of talent here--Nowitzki, Arenas, Mike Miller, Jason Kapono, Damon Jones (they gotta mike him) and Jason Terry. If Arenas and Nowitzki get hot, it could be an all-timer. But Miller's got the sweetest release in the game and Kapono's shooting an absurd .560 (on 3+ attempts per game!) from three this year. Still, the guys with the experience and the quick releases usually win it. Arenas has been off the last couple weeks, so I'll go with Nowitzki.

THE GAME

I love the all-star game. And it's not like it was back in the 70s-80s-90s--they still don't play any D in the first half, but it usually tightens up a bit in the second and you see some legitimately good basketball in addition to all the highlight reel stuff. Nash and Iverson are out, which sucks--PGs make the game--but you still have Kidd and Billups along with table setters Wade, Lebron, Kobe, T-Mac, Arenas and Joe Johnson, there should be plenty of fine ballhandling and passing going on. And you have plenty of high-flying finishers in Dwight Howard, Shawn Marion, Caron Butler, Vince and Amare. With an amped-up Las Vegas crowd, it'll be a lot of fun to watch.

DISTURBING OBSERVATIONS FROM LAKERS-CAVS

2007-02-11T15:43:00.000-08:00

So I watched the hideously ugly Lakers-Cavs game today, and came away with the following thoughts:

1. Lebron still looks like he's out and out throwing games. He must lead the league in fall-away jumpers by a hundred. I love when announcers talk about his 'unselfisheness'. Pfffffft--he's the most selfish fucking player in the league. So he throws a couple sweet passes, BFD. That's not what unselfishness is. You know what's selfish? Popping a bunch of gay fall-away jumpers--which is easy--and not taking the ball to the basket--which is hard. Especially when you're a terrible shooter, like James. Those fall-away jumpers are 20-25% shots at best, the opponent will let him take those shots *all fucking day*. And he does.

If Mike Brown weren't about thirty seconds from getting his ass canned, he'd be benching Lebron right now--the team clearly played better without him today. If I were Brown, I'd go down swinging; tell James (and the media) that he's coming out of the game if he's shooting jumpers, period. And stick with it. If you get fired, you get fired. Hey, you're getting fired anyway if James doesn't get with the program and the team gets bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Fucking call his ass out. Learn from Phil Jackson here; when Kobe and Shaq were going through funks like this, Jackson basically went out to the media and questioned their willingness to win, their work ethic, often their very manhood. It seems childish--but it worked! Especially with Shaq, you could always count on that fire getting lit underneath him and the big fella coming out and wreaking havoc on the entire league for the next two weeks.

Even Dwyane Wade is criticizing James now, saying James lacks "that pep in his step", and that "he isn't all there". Wow. I mean, when's the last time you heard of a player in the league calling out another player like that?! Wade's basically saying LBJ is sleepwalking through games--which everyone in the league knows but somehow isn't being reported in the media.

I love how sports fans save their rage for guys who--gasp!--talk a little shit, and guys who--gasp!--throw a punch in the heat of battle, and give a pass to pieces of crap like LBJ and Vince before him who coast through games and basically steal money from the organization and its fans. What James is doing right now is 1000 times more offensive to me as a sports fan than what Carmelo Anthony did (I guess it's actually an infinite times more offensive to me, since my level of offendedness at a guy throwing a single punch is zero--big goddamn deal).

So the question is, is James just really in a funk that he'll break out of, is he mentally and physically drained (i.e., 'being a pussy') and will grow out of it in a few years with added maturity and a better work ethic, or is this a sign of things to come, like with Vince? I don't know, man. I know it seems pretty crazy to pass this harsh a judgment on a 22-year-old, but I know how people are--you could see the drive with MJ, Kobe, Iverson, KG, Wade from day one. I just don't see James having that. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's still an awesome player and will probably end his career as a HOF lock--but when it comes to measuring up against the greatest of the greats, well, you don't get to just coast on your physical talent and be mentioned in that group. I don't know, maybe he'll end up being a guy like Shaq, immature and unfocused most of the time, coasting through the regular season--but turning it on in a big way once the playoffs roll around. I guess we'll see. All I know is that right now, he's a shell of the player he was the last couple of years, and nowhere even close to an MVP candidate.

2. The more disturbing observation is that, even with everything in #1 being true in spades today, the Cavs still beat the Lakers, putting them at 3-5 on a hugely underwhelming road trip that they spent mostly down double digits to crap-ass teams.

Kobe's kinda reverting back to 'stupid Kobe'--not as much with the bad shots, but making a lot of idiotic decisions with the ball. He must have tried to split the double team against the Pistons 15 times--and lost the ball 10 of them. Hey, if you're not getting the call, then *stop doing it*, how hard is that? The guy just ain't bright, it's really as simple as that. When you start with that premise, all of Kobe's flaws become pretty easy to understand--he's just a very dumb guy.

But I can understand him wanting to try to take over the game more, since his supporting cast has been dropping a collective pantload for the last couple of weeks. Lamar Odom is a turnover machine--and is probably second in the league to James in 'dumbass fall-away jumpers that have no shot in hell of falling'. He's just been awful; like the Cavs with James today, the Lakers were better when Odom was on the bench--no hyperbole, both teams played noticeably better with James/Odom on the bench. Odom took 6 threes today. 6 threes from a 33% shooter should never happen. Again, if I were Phil, I'd tell him to literally *never take a three*--and if he did, he was getting his ass benched. Odom is a great player when he's taking the ball to the basket, utterly useless when he's not. I don't know why a coach has to force pussies like Odom and LBJ to do what they're good at (well, actually I do know--because it's hard), but it's pretty clear that they have to. If you let them do what they *want* to do, be prepared to watch a bunch of bricks get tossed up from the perimeter. And watch a bunch of Ls pile up.

Andrew Bynum is hitting the wall in a big way, he's disappeared completely in the last week. 29 minutes and 2 boards today, I don't even know how that happens. Maurice Evans is second only to Josh Smith in "most astonishingly athletic moves to the basket without finishing". Hey, it's real great that you're *so* quick and can jump *so* high--now put the goddamn ball in the basket. A guy like Joe Johnson could never *dream* of having Evans' athleticism, but he knows how to put the goddamn ball in the basket once he gets there.

Speaking of guys who toss up a bunch of prayers, Smush Parker is shooting 5 threes a game in February games and is hitting 28% of them. He has absolutely no business taking that many threes. Yes, you're wide open--why exactly do you think that is? Brainstorm with me, why does it seem like no one ever guards you beyond the three point line?

Now we're finding out Kwame is out until (six weeks after they said he'd be back) and Walton is out until (3 weeks after they said he'd be back)--christ, even the training staff is dropping the ball now. I've seen a lot of sprained ankles, but how many of them take two fucking months to come back from? Are you sure you don't need to amputate? Neither of these guys is great, but they play crucial roles on this team. The half court offense has been stagnant with Walton out (and Odom smoking pot before every game), and you need to have a backup center on your roster when your starter is 19. I mean, even old man Ilgauskas was riping up Ronny Turiaf. Christ, if James wasn't such a giant pussy, you could probably put *him* in at center against Turiaf, they're practically the same size.

I'm still on board with the 'championship in 2009!" idea, and I think they'll be a lot better once everyone gets healthy--but man, this has been just a brutal stretch of shitty basketball. Like the Cavs, it's pretty clear they're just not even remotely close to the real championship contenders this year. But the Lakers have Andrew Bynum as (*potentially*) a big giant light at the end of the tunnel--the Cavs's roster for the next 2-3 years is set, and they're only going as far as James takes them. And right now, that looks like *maybe* the second round.

ALL-STAR TEAMS

2007-02-08T10:56:00.000-08:00

I can't believe the NBA All-Star Game--one of the 5 best sporting events of the year--is in Las Vegas and I won't be there because of goddamn work commitments. I gotta find another job.

Seriously, even if you didn't have a ticket for the game or any of the events, it'd be worth it just to check out all the characters in town for the weekend. I can picture a vast rainbow of suits--orange, purple, red--and all the real hookers fighting for floor space in the clubs with the amateur sluts just up from LA for the weekend. I guarantee that if you were there, you'd see at least 30 things you've never before seen in your life and never will again. And Zach Randolph would be prominently involved in 20 of them.

OK, on to the teams.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Starters
G Dwyane Wade
G Gilbert Arenas
F Lebron James
F Chris Bosh
C Jermaine O'Neal

The top three guys are pretty obvious--even if Lebron's game is falling off a cliff lately--and Bosh is far and away the best big man in the east, but the center position was tough. It looked early on like Dwight Howard was ready to join the ranks of the superstar elite, but he and Orlando have taken a nosedive over the last month or so. Indiana has a better record (despite playing a higher percentage of their games on the road) and O'Neal is just a better player than Howard on both ends.

(Just another word about Bosh: Since coming back from injury, he's averaging 26 & 9 in 18 games, and the Raptors are 13-5 over that span. This guy's coming on in a big way.)

Reserves
Chauncey Billups
Joe Johnson
Vince Carter
Caron Butler
Dwight Howard
Michael Redd
Ben Gordon

Injury replacement for Redd: Emeka Okafor

I know, I know, where's Rip Hamilton? Well, in the mighty mouse conference, they have lots of good guards and very few big forwards and centers--so an Emeka Okafor gets on the roster over Hamilton. You can't have Caron Butler trying to d-up Amare, that's not going to work. It's an all-star *team*, not just a ranking of the best players in the conference.

So why Ben Gordon over Hamilton? Look, I love Rip Hamilton, he's one of my favorite players in the league. And it's really, really close, they're both fantastic offensive players. But ask around the league which guy a team would less rather face, it's Ben Gordon. Hamilton has made the most out of his game you could possibly ask for, but he's still essentially a jump shooter who can't hit the three. He's done a great job being more aggressive in putting the ball on the floor, and his FTAs are way up as a result--but Gordon's a creator, a one-man offense, a guy who can absolutely take over a game on his own. Rip can do that too, sometimes, but Gordon does it like every other night.

A couple other notes--

This is entirely based on merit. If I were voting with the goal of having the best game possible, I'd absolutely have Jason Kidd on the team--great passing PGs are what makes the all-star game fun to watch, like the 80s glory days of Isiah vs. Magic, some of the most enjoyable-to-watch basketball ever played. But look, the Nets, with Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson (who played in 2/3rds of the team's games), are 23-27. In the East. Even without Krstic, that's pathetic. I'm not giving this team 2 all-stars. Vince should be on there because, well, it's hard to leave off a 25/6/4 guy--but if Kidd is the leader of this crew, he's gotta be accountable for their awful start.

I actually considered putting Eddy Curry on here instead of Okafor, he's been just a fantastic offensive player since a few weeks into the season. You can pretty much count on him for 22 a night on .600+ shooting. But he still doesn't rebound, and he's still a dreadful defensive player on a team that should be better than it is. Okafor's a 15 & 11 guy and a total defensive force on a suddenly resurgent Bobcats team (wait--can you be 'resurgent' if you were never 'surgent' in the first place? Make it "on the suddenly not-horrific Bobcats team"). I also considered Rasheed, who's more valuable than his stats would suggest.

My (rather arbitrary) injury policy is that a guy has to play in like 60% of his team's games--so yes on Redd, Billups & Bosh, no on Shaq & Pierce.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Starters
G: Steve Nash
G: Kobe Bryant
F: Dirk Nowitzki
F: Amare Stoudemire
C: Tim Duncan

(Note: Yao fails the "60% test")

The only question mark here is Amare, but I put him on over Boozer, Garnett, Randolph and Brand because he makes Phoenix so much better on both ends. Amare's coming off a 4-game stretch against Utah, San Antonio, at Denver and at Portland where he averaged 31 & 14 on 62% shooting.

I also thought about throwing Tracy McGrady in there at the other forward spot--what he's been doing with Houston since Yao went down is incredible. The team was 16-11 when Yao got hurt and 40-year-old Dikembe Mutombo took over at center; since then, they're 15-6 and are just a half game behind Utah and 1.5 games behind San Antonio for the #3 spot in the West. McGrady is averaging just under 30 & 7 during those 21 games.

Reserves
Tracy McGrady
Carlos Boozer
Kevin Garnett
Allen Iverson
Shawn Marion
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Paul

Boozer injury replacement: Elton Brand

Man, there are some tough omissions here: Tony Parker, Ray Allen, Zach Randolph, Josh Howard, Deron Williams, Baron Davis, etc.

I think the toughest decision is Chris Paul over Tony Parker. Paul missed 1/3rd of the season with injury and Parker's the second best player on one of the best teams in the league. But it comes down to this--New Orleans has almost no supporting talent, but they're a plus-.500 team when Paul plays; that would make them a playoff team in an absolutely *stacked* conference. Plus Paul is just better. Parker's a great scorer, one of the all time small-man finishers in NBA history. He's putting up 19 a game on ridiculous .529 shooting. But Paul is scoring almost as much and is also one of the 2-3 best ballhandling/passing point guards in the league on top of it--for the season he's averaging 8.6 assists per game against only 2.8 turnovers, a better than 3:1 ratio. And Paul is also a better defensive guard--although Parker's underrated in that area. Tough call, but I'm going with the guy who's the leader of his team and the main focus of the opponent's defensive gameplan.

All of this goes for Deron Williams too--he's a damn good player, but Paul is just a little bit better, and doesn't have the advantage of playing with other great players the way Parker and Williams do.

Leaving Ray Allen off was tough too, he's having a monster year. But if you're going to go with the scoring guard, it has to be Iverson. Things have been rocky in Denver, but Seattle's one of the worst teams in the league (admittely injuries have played a part there). Iverson is scoring just as much as Allen since he got to Denver, and he's even put up a better shooting percentage--add in his 8 assists per game and superior (if overrated) defense, and he gets the nod.

I gave Garnett, Boozer and Brand the PF slots over Zach Randolph because as good as he's been this year, Randolph is still a one-dimensional player. But Portland has been surprisingly not-atrocious this year, and especially lately they've played some good teams pretty tough. Randolph is having a fantastic season, he just barely misses the cut at a position where the Western Conference is completely loaded.

And lastly, we come to Josh Howard. I love Josh Howard, I think he's an incredibly valuable player on both ends. He slashes to the basket, he shoots the three, he rebounds, he gets steals and blocks--he's like the poor man's Shawn Marion. But who are you going to put him on over?McGrady? Garnett? The average-wealth-man's Shawn Marion--Shawn Marion? I don't see it. Josh Howard has turned into a great player but he's not on these guys' level quite yet.

FRIDAY THOUGHTS

2007-02-02T12:04:00.000-08:00

TORONTO

Toronto closed out a strong January with a double digit win over the Wiz, putting them at 10-5 for the month and 23-23 on the year--the only team in the Atlantic Division at .500.

Since Chris Bosh returned from injury, he's averaging 25 & 9 in 15 games in his march to superstardom. His performance in that Wizards game showed how dominant he can be--and why the Wizards, although fun to watch, aren't even remotely close to being a championship contender. Big Chris went for 34 & 8 and made 15 straight shots at one point. You can't blame this one on Antawn Jamison's matador defense, this game came after Jamison's injury (which will put him out somewhere between 2 and 8 weeks...WTF? Maybe you should cover all your bases and say he could come back any time between four minutes from now and 2010). Bosh is just unstoppable on the box against anyone, a great combination of size, power, quickness, footwork, hands, and a beautiful touch around the basket. Interesting side note: Bosh is 10-26 in threes this year, good for 38.5%. (But you kinda hope he never develops into a real threat from there; the last thing you want from your dominant post scorer is for him to turn into Rasheed Wallace and jack up 5 threes a game when he should be pounding down low).

Another guy playing well in Toronto is Jose Calderon, the 25-year-old point guard out of Spain. In the 8 games he started in place of injured TJ Ford, Calderon has averaged 14/2.8/8.6 against only 2.1 turnovers. He's not a great outside shooter, surprising for a Euro, but he's a great penetrator and ballhandler and really makes things happen for this offense. A great guy to have coming off the bench.

ORLANDO

I've had a couple people ask about Orlando, but I don't have many answers. Well, I have one--Brian Hill. Why pro sports teams keep recycling these proven losers (like Dallas with Norv fucking Turner?!) is beyond me. Yes, Brian Hill once won with Shaquille O'Neal and Afernee Hardaway. You know what other coaches could win with a young Shaq and Penny? ALL OF THEM. He had plenty of chances after that and never won shit. But instead of taking a chance on a young, energetic coach--Avery Johnson seems to be working out pretty well--some of these teams just go with the tried and untrue. They'd rather have a proven loser than the unknown, I just don't get it.

So we have Orlando--possibly the most talented team in the East--floundering at 24-22. And it's even worse than it looks, since they've played 27 of those 46 games in conference; what's going to happen when they have to run the gamut against the Western powerhouses? This team's a mess.

I'm not saying this is the specific reason, but I always hate teams that play those 10-man rotations where everyone gets 20-30 minutes. Orlando doesn't play an aggressive, attacking, uptempo style (quite the opposite, really), so it's not like guys are just playing their asses off for 5 minute stretches and then needing a rest. So it's more like substituting for substituting's sake. Well, look at it this way. Either Jameer Nelson or Carlos Arroyo is the better player. Whichever one you think it is (Nelson), someone's better--so every minute the better guy is on the bench (and not because he's in dire need of rest), your team is worse off. Now that's obviously a generalization, sometimes you substitute because the bench player matches up better against a particular team than the starter; that's not what I'm talking about here. You don't owe anything to Carlos Arroyo--you use him when it makes sense to use him. But Hill comes into a game thinking he *has* to get Arroyo his 20-25 minutes, no matter what. Well, sometimes that means you're playing him 10-15 minutes a game where your team is worse off for it. It makes no sense. But then neither does the fact that Hill's in the league at all.

QUICK HITTERS

Houston continues to play well without Yao, going 7-3 in their last 10 and pushing their record to 29-16 overall, 1.5 games ahead of the Lakers for that all important 5 seed (which means you get to play Utah instead of San Antonio). Very impressive job by Jeff Van Gundy, he's the Coach of the Year in a walk right now. Also it's nice to see T-Mac come alive, I'd almost forgotten how good he is when completely healthy. In 13 January games, he averaged a shade under 30 along with 6 boards and 7 assists, shot .472 from the floor, and turned the ball over only 2.5 times per game. Nice fill-in work too by Mutumbo (who I talked about last week) and Juwan Howard (averaged 15/6/2 in Jan).

Rocky start to the AI-Melo era in Denver, they lost 3 straight after winning their first 2, including a couple embarassing home losses to the Bobcats and Jefferson-less Nets. Then they lost on the road to Portland, a team they should easily beat even without Iverson (he had a sprained ankle & is expected back shortly). The biggest problem has been Carmelo, he's been very rusty since coming back from suspension--in the 6 games since he's been back, he's shot 50% once and was under in the other 5. The Nuggets are currently tied for the #7 playoff spot with a surging Clippers (7-3 in their last ten), just a game ahead of the hard-battling Timberwolves (led by Garnett's 25/13/4 averages in December).

Speaking of surging teams--well, surging for them--the Bobcats have gone 8-5 in their last 13 games, with wins at Detroit, at Denver and at LA Lakers. Gerald Wallace in particular has been on a tear; in 8 January games after getting back from injury, Wallace is averaging 23/9/3 with 2 steals and a block, and shooting .546 from the floor. He's a tough matchup, a guy who can overpower your shooting guard (like he does with Kobe), and blow past your bigger forwards (like he does with Luke Walton).

Advice for fantasy players--if Paul Millsap is available in your league, jump on him. Boozer is out at least a month, and Millsap is extremely productive when he gets minutes. He scores (with a huge FG%), he rebounds, he gets blocks and steals. In the first 3 games without Boozer, he's averaged 15 & 12 with a steal and 2 blocks per.

NEXT WEEK: ALL-STAR TEAMS

LLOYD CARR, HYPOCRITE

2007-01-29T15:58:00.000-08:00

So I'm reading the blog of a fellow Wolverine http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/, and come across these quotes from Lloyd Carr (in response to night games and the addition of a 12th game on the schedule):

"Money … we need to make more money," Carr said, not disguising his sarcasm. "Let's play more games and let's make sure the players are available to play any time, any night, 24/7."

"I think we've gone down that road and there never will be a return unfortunately," Carr said. "I think the 12th game was just the first of what's going to be a continued growth…we're turning into a professional sport."

Well here's the thing Lloyd: it's always been a professional sport--as far as you're concerned anyway.

See, Lloyd Carr is a millionaire. Many times over. Many, many times over. Now I don't know where his (undoubtedly considerable) net worth puts him--other than "way the fuck above you", dear reader; but I do know making $1.4M a year puts you in the top 1/10 of 1% of earners in America. So what we have is an extraordinarily wealthy man bemoaning the greedy cesspool of capitalism run rampant that, you know, made him richer than 99.9% of the rest of the country.

So my question to Lloyd is this: If you're so upset about the amount of money NCAA football is collectively trying to make, then what is the "correct" amount of commercialism, what's the "correct" amount of revenue? Is it the amount where you get to make tens of millions of dollars in your career...and right there, hold it, stop! That's enough! Anything more than that is a moral outrage! It's sickening! We're turning into (snort)...a professional sport!

Yeah, "we" are.

(Aside: Hey, why do we even have professional coaches anyway? Why not have student volunteers? You know, the way we have student "volunteer" football players? It obviously would make for worse football (although perhaps not in Michigan's case), just like having student volunteer players makes for worse football, but at least that would restore the purity and amateurism Carr so obviously yearns for. Nah, on second thought, let's keep it the way it is: force young black guys to uphold the highest and noblest ideal in sports, if not all of life itself--amateurism--while old white guys get insanely rich).

I don't begrudge Lloyd Carr one dollar of what he's made (especially on Milton Friedman Day). You know me, I'm a big fan of unfettered capitalism. I'm going to buy a goddamn felt pennant with the words "UNFETTERED CAPITALISM" on it, that's how much of a fan I am. Good for him that he cashed in, good for him that he's richer than christ. I have no problem with that.

What I do have a problem with is a hypocrite like him crying about the greed, commercialism and big money in college football that he himself has profited off of so handsomely. He never had a problem in the world with any of that when he was getting his million dollar paychecks, but now that someone's asking him to play--shudder--a *night game*, well, let the sanctimonious moral outrage spew forth like so many USC touchdowns.

Look, if Lloyd wanted to coach football in a pure, pristine, amateur paradise, he always could have chosen to do that--there are many Division III colleges out there, community colleges, high schools, junior high schools, pee-wee leagues (where his soft zones might have a chance). Nobody's making any money there, nobody's a slave to the TV schedule, big donors aren't calling the shots in the football program, nobody's making a mockery out of the educational mission of the school--oh yeah, and the coach gets paid twenty grand a year...but with unlimited usage of the laundry facilities and one free dinner a week at the Applebee's over by the interstate.

Huh? What's that, Lloyd? Wha? You--you say you're fine where you are? You're good?

Yeah, I thought so. So SHUT THE FUCK UP about money ruining college football. It's astonishing that the only individual person making serious coin in college football--a head coach at Football Factory U.--thinks he has claim to the moral high ground with respect to college football becoming too money-driven. Now maybe there's a good point to be made there, but Lloyd Carr just isn't the one with the standing to make it. It'd be like Robert Nardelli going on the warpath about incompetent CEOs getting ridiculous golden parachutes.

AI & The Apprentice

2007-01-22T16:12:00.000-08:00

DENVER

So Carmelo makes his debut with Iverson tonight in Denver, that place is gonna be rockin' and rollin'. They might need a feeling-out period, but they'll still probably crush the life out of the Grizz--especially if Memphis tries to run with 'em, as is their wont under new coach Tony Barone (why a low level mafioso from a horrible screenplay is running an NBA team, I couldn't tell you).

Just for the record, I think it will work out splendidly for Denver and make them a second-tier player in the playoffs along with San Antonio, LA, and Houston (with Phoenix and Dallas the clear cream of the crop). Again, it might take some time from them to get used to each other, the way T-Mac and Ming still don't mesh perfectly on the rare occasions they're both healthy, but I think the Nuggets will find a sweet groove within a month. I'm absolutely convinced Iverson can play (and is willing to play) a PG role on a good team, especially since he'll still put up points. The way they'll push the ball up the floor, there will be plenty of shots to go around. I'm looking for them to push 110 a night, with Carmelo in the high 20s and Iverson in the low-to-mid-20s with 8-9 assists per game.

QUICKIES

Congratulations to the New Jersey Nets for putting together a solid 8-2 run and giving the Atlantic Division it's first .500 team. But then Richard Jefferson announced he'd be getting ankle surgery and would miss a good chunk of time--so keep your fingers crossed, there's still a good chance we see a division winner with a losing record.

Brandon Roy is starting to show signs he's fully recovered from that early season foot injury, and has been playing really well, averaging a cool 17/5/3 in 11 January games, shooting .453 from the floor and an excellent .406 from three. He's also averaging 1.8 steals and coughing the ball up just 1.5 turnovers a night. Very solid rookie numbers. Keep this in mind fantasy players, every year there are 2-3 rookies who've done nothing special all year and then suddenly put together a solid finish--Deron Williams and Ray Felton come to mind from last year. Roy's just getting to that finishing kick a little earlier...and running away with rookie of the year.

Speaking of rookies who could come up big in the stretch run, Randy Foye got his first start with the suspensions of Ricky Davis and KG and responded with 25 points on 9-17 shooting, including 5-6 from three. He's been productive when he's gotten minutes, and his PT has been on the rise. In January, he's averaging a solid 12/4/3 in 28 minutes per.

With all their injuries, Milwaukee is a total mess right now, but they have to be ecstatic with Andrew Bogut's play recently. I'm still not sure he can ever be a superstar--I could be wrong--but he's establishing himself as a legitimate starting center in the league, and that's the first step. In 9 games in January, he's averaging 14 & 11 with 3 assists (he's an excellent passer for a big man), OK defensive numbers, and a shooting % of .573.

THE APPRENTICE

I don't know if you watch this show--congratulations if you don't, it's truly one of the stupidest things on TV. If they ever start making good network TV again, episodes of this show should be mailed out to every producer every year with a note saying "Never Again".

But I watch it. Naturally. If it's shit, I'm watching, it's as simple as that. I'd like to pretend I watch only to make fun of the spazzes, social misfits, drooling imbeciles, and uber-type-A douchebag tools--and that's truly most of it--but I do get into the competitiveness and the strategy and all that.

So last night they have to design a bus tour in Los Angeles, one of those 'homes of the stars' kinda things that nobody who isn't from rural Ohio would ever do in a million years. One team did a pretty good job, had the Laker Girls and all that (at only $85 an hour per girl; can you get them to clean your house & mow your lawn? Or service you? That's probably extra). Although they did have this loud, obnoxious, fugly Asian guy on the microphone instead of the smart, well-spoken, extremely hot brunette chick. Hey, everybody loves the loud, obnoxious Asian guy over the hot chick! Good move! But overall, a solid effort.

But the other team was a disaster from start to finish, the kind of trainwreck that makes reality TV worth watching.

First they couldn't figure out where the tour should run, and tried to decide by driving randomly around Hollywood and Beverly Hills (some of the worst traffic in the entire city). They were probably on the road for 5 hours before they realized, hey, Hollywood's a real shithole. Of course anyone in the city could've told them that.

And yet, that's what they ended up going with! There was a priceless scene where they're talking about "lifestyles of the rich and famous" or some shit, and they're driving by alleys and street corners where in a few hours, 16-year-old meth freaks are going to be doling out handjobs to movie executives for ten bucks a crack.

I honestly have no idea what their theme was; I think it was called something like "a day in the life of a celebrity" or something, but I didn't really see anything on the tour that fell under that description. Wait--there was one moment where they were passing by some hotel, and the guy playing tour guide enthusiastically tells the tourists that that's where John Belushi shot himself up with coke and heroin and OD'ed--and then the camera pans to the horrified faces of a bunch of parents with little kids. So I guess doing speedballs does fit under the description of "a day in the life of a celebrity". I mean, it would be if I were one.

So there's this boring-ass tour through scuzzy, bum-ridden streets lined with pawn shops, check-cashing places, Ye Old Adult Book Shoppe, liquor stores, and other assorted LA glamorousness...and if that's not enough, the microphone is letting loose with a constant stream of piercing feedback. You could see the people fucking praying it would just all be over soon. I felt genuine pity for them. Of course the team was too dumb to figure out you can just, you know, shout?--until the thing was half over (and these were like 90 minute tours! Who the hell wants to drive around LA for 90 minutes just to see where Bill Pullman lives?)

Classic reality television, classic "Apprentice" formula where you include a few normal people and then outnumber them with a bunch of pyschos, misanthropes and morons with various (and multiple) severe personality disorders, and then just let the chips fall where they may. Good times.

SEX AND THE BBC

2007-01-20T01:22:00.000-08:00

(Note: I realize this has nothing to do with basketball; I may be trying to incorporate some non-NBA columns into the blog. Haven't decided if this is a permanent thing or not yet. I'll let you know.)

...I'm watching BBC America ("The Robinsons"--a lukewarm recommendation), and an ad comes on for text-messaging-sex. You text a message to a certain number and you get back sexually explicit messages.

Now phone sex is weird enough for me--I mean, between pornography and prostitution, I'd be pretty much set as a single guy--but I can at least see *some* value in it. Most men enjoy dirty talk from women, and contrary to what your typical stand-up comic has to say on the matter of phone sex, you can absolutely tell if a woman talking to you is young and thin just by her voice--she might be fugly in the face, but it's probably not some nasty-ass old skank whispering dirty nothings in your ear.

But texting? I can't see how you could possibly get off on that. And I haven't scouted it out, being more of a visual stimulee, but I have to imagine the internet is awash in erotic literature. So if that's your thing, you can get it for free.

Now here's the *really* fucked up thing: it costs two dollars--A MESSAGE. $2 a message! And it's text messaging, you don't exactly get a paragraph per message. So you're sitting there with your pud in your hand, going back and forth with what almost certainly is some hairy-ass sleezeball guy laughing at your patheticness, and you're coughing up a couple bucks every time you get back "I'm licking your ballsac, I'm putting lotion on your cock, I'm putting my finger up your ass".

That has to add up! So what, you're dropping $20-$30-$50 for this? For this lame-ass sexual experience? When in this glorious age of porn, we have available every jpeg, every mpeg, and (I'm sure) every mp3 that specifically addresses all of your most sick and perverse fetishes, with unlimited downloads for $10 a month?

So here are my questions:

WHO IS BUYING THIS? And how is this product generating repeat business once these dumbass losers see a $40 charge on their wireless bills? And how are they making enough money to advertise at all? And why are they advertising on BBC America?

Something doesn't add up here. Until you remember that 95% of people are stupid and 100% of men are fucked up sexually.

P.S. Speaking of TV recommendations, I have a strong one for you: "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia". It's a low-budget show on FX (channel 248 on DirecTV), starring three very talented young guys who write all the episodes. To date there have been two seasons, 6 episodes in 2005, and 6 more in 2006. The former episodes are pure gold, every single one of them a gem, some of the funniest shit I've seen on TV since "Arrested Development" got the axe.

In the 2006 season, they brought in Danny Devito for some star power (most likely necessary to stay on the air), and the show suffered a bit. No slight to Devito, who does a good job, but it's just a weird fit--the plot lines with him feel a little forced. But the 2006 season is still funny as hell. So check it out, they're currently playing reruns from both seasons. It's really a fantastic show, a rare funny, edgy and original comedy that stands out in a sea of mediocrity, below-averageness, downright crappiness, and Scrubs.